Small Wars Journal

Gates: Iraq Visit Wrap-up, Q&A; Services Must Balance Old, New Capabilities

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 6:10pm

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates' Q&A with soldiers of the 1st Cavalry Division's 4th Advise and Assist Brigade working in U.S. Division North.

Gates Wraps Up Iraq Visit, Arrives in UAE

By John D. Banusiewicz

American Forces Press Service

ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates, April 8, 2011 -- Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates concluded a three-day visit to Iraq with two stops in the north today before flying here to meet with Crown Prince Mohammad bin Zayed Al Nubayan.

The meeting with the crown prince, who is the deputy supreme commander of the United Arab Emirates armed forces, was the latest in a series of visits Gates has made to Middle East leaders in recent weeks to exchange perspectives during a period of regional unrest.

Gates left Baghdad for northern Iraq this morning to meet in Irbil with President Masoud Barzani of the Kurdish regional government. He then traveled to Mosul where he spoke with soldiers of the 1st Cavalry Division's 4th Advise and Assist Brigade working in U.S. Division North.

The secretary thanked the soldiers for their work in mentoring Iraq and Kurdish forces. As the person who signed their deployment orders and those of all other service members sent into harm's way, he added, his highest priority has been to get them what they need to complete their mission successfully and go home safely.

Noting that he was pleased to be able to offer his gratitude to them in person, Gates asked that the soldiers pass his personal thanks to their families the next time they email or call home.

"Their support is what makes it possible for you to do what you do," the secretary said.

In a question-and-answer session, Gates said a continued U.S. military presence in Iraq beyond this year is possible if the Iraqi government wants it. An agreement between the two nations calls for all U.S. forces to be out of Iraq by Dec. 31. The secretary said he discussed the possibility of a continued U.S. military presence in Iraq with all of the Iraqi officials he met with this week.

"My basic message to them has been [that] if there is to be a presence to help them with some of the areas where they still need help, we're open to that possibility," he said. "But they have to ask, and time is running out in Washington, because we've got a lot going on around the world. And in terms of prioritizing and how we employ and deploy the force, we've got to make some decisions."

Any presence beyond this year would be a fraction of the 47,000 U.S. troops serving in Iraq today, Gates added, and would have to be worked out if Iraqi officials seek it. Whether it would be for a finite period or the long term and what kind of mission it would be would depend on what the Iraqis want and what the United States can provide and afford, he said.

Gates: Services Must Balance Old, New Capabilities

By John D. Banusiewicz

American Forces Press Service

MOSUL, Iraq, April 8, 2011 -- As they move ahead, the services must find the right balance between the new capabilities they've had to develop in Iraq and Afghanistan while maintaining the traditional capabilities they used in previous wars, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said here today.

During a visit with soldiers of the 1st Cavalry Division's 4th Advise and Assist Brigade serving here in U.S. Division North, Gates said that when "dwell time" at home stations between deployments increases to two years, which should happen by the end of the year, soldiers will be able to resume the full-spectrum training that has suffered from long and frequent deployments over the last decade.

"What I want to be sure of is that as we come out of Iraq, and eventually out of Afghanistan, we don't forget what we've learned in Iraq and Afghanistan," he said, "and we [also] need to get back to people training with armor and artillery and so on."

The secretary noted that aircraft carriers have dominated the Navy, fighters and bombers have dominated the Air Force, armor has dominated the Army, and amphibious capability has dominated the Marine Corps.

"What I'm trying to get people to appreciate is that in the 21st century, ... the [U.S.] Army meeting an army like the Soviet army coming through the Fulda Gap in Germany is not likely to happen," he said. "So the Army has to have a full range of capabilities -- and it needs to buy equipment that gives a full range of capabilities -- so it can do all of the different aspects of the mission."

As another example, Gates noted that the United States hasn't had an Air Force pilot shot down in air-to-air combat since the Vietnam War, though air-to-air and bomber capabilities have dominated the Air Force for most of its history.

"But guess what?" he said. "Last year, the Air Force flew 37,000 combat support missions in Afghanistan. They medevaced 9,700 soldiers, airmen, Marines and sailors. Those are important missions. So I want the Air Force ... to have bombers and tac[tical] air and an air-to-air capability, but I don't want them to forget about that combat support mission. I don't want them to forget about medevac. I want them to have the equipment to do all of that."

The big challenge facing all of the services, Gates said, is finding the right balance of capabilities and how to go about it jointly.

"We've operated jointly in this theater and in Afghanistan in ways we've never done before in the American military," the secretary told the soldiers. "But we don't procure jointly. Very few of our acquisitions are joint, so I think we've got to figure that one out, too, particularly in a time of limited budgets."

Situations Similar to Libya Unlikely, Gates Says

By John D. Banusiewicz

American Forces Press Service

MOSUL, Iraq, April 8, 2011 -- It's unlikely that a situation like the one in Libya would occur in another country, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates told U.S. soldiers here today.

As part of a three-day visit to Iraq, Gates visited the 1st Cavalry Division's 4th Advise and Assist Brigade to thank the soldiers for their work in U.S. Division North mentoring Iraqi and Kurdish forces.

Before posing for a photo with each of the hundreds of soldiers present --- and handing each a commemorative coin with his personal thanks --- Gates fielded questions. One soldier asked whether the recent turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa could result in military action similar to the NATO-led effort under way in Libya.

The rate of the spread of unrest in the region is without historical precedent, the secretary noted.

"I was the deputy national security advisor when we went through the liberation of Eastern Europe in 1989, and that went from about February until December," he said. "But this is all happening in like 10 weeks, and so I think our overall approach has to be that we support addressing these political and economic grievances. We believe that the demonstrations ought to be nonviolent, and the actions of the governments need to be nonviolent."

Within those principles, Gates said, each country must be considered individually.

"And I think what has made Libya unique is, first of all, a request which is unprecedented in my experience --- which only goes back 45 years --- of the Arab League actually asking for an intervention in the Middle East to take on an Arab government mistreating its own people," Gates said. "That was then supported by a resolution of the Gulf Cooperation Council, and then the U.N., and the demands, frankly, of our allies like Britain and France.

"So it's hard for me to imagine those kinds of circumstances being replicated anyplace else," he added.

After the troop visit, Gates had lunch with soldiers in their dining facility before leaving Iraq to continue his overseas trip in the United Arab Emirates. He visited Saudi Arabia earlier this week, continuing a series of recent visits to countries in the region.

AfPak Hands: Flopping?

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 4:30pm
It may be the top personnel priority of the chairman of the Joint Chiefs -- but is the AfPak Hands program flopping? By Tom Ricks at his Foreign Policy blog Best Defense. BLUF: "Most striking was an internal survey of members done last August and September. Of the 127 then in Afghanistan, 99 responded. An overwhelming majority of respondents, a total of 80, gave the program a grade of 65 percent or less, which the survey states was the benchmark set for 'program success.'"

COIN Center Webcasts on 14 April

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 6:53am
The US Army COIN Center is pleased to host Dr. Mark Moyar who will conduct two webcasts on key COIN topics: "Leadership in COIN" and "Development in Afghanistan's Counterinsurgency: A New Guide." Both briefs are on Thursday, 14 April.

Dr. Moyar joined Orbis Operations as Director of Research in July 2010 after serving as a professor at the Marine Corps University. He travels to Afghanistan regularly to undertake research and consulting for the ISAF COIN Advisory/Assistance Team and USCENTCOM. Dr. Moyar is the author of A Question of Command: Counterinsurgency from the Civil War to Iraq.

"Leadership in COIN" is 0900-1000 CDT (1000 EDT, 1500 ZULU), 14 April.

"Development in Afghanistan's Counterinsurgency: A New Guide" is 1030-1130 CDT (1130 EDT, 1630 ZULU), 14 April.

As a reminder, don't forget Dr. Sarah Sewall's webcast presentation on Friday, 15 April, 1000-1100 CDT.

Those interested in attending may view the meeting online at https://connect.dco.dod.mil/coinweb and participate via Defense Connect Online (DCO) as a guest. Remote attendees will be able to ask questions and view the slides through the software.

8 April SWJ Roundup (Updated)

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 1:01am
Afghanistan

Gunmen, Suicide Bombers Attack Afghan Police - Los Angeles Times

Taliban Gunmen Attack Kandahar Police Base - BBC News

Suicide Attackers Kill 6 at Afghan Police Compound - Associated Press

Forces Conclude Operations Near Pakistan Border - AFPS

Why It's Time to Negotiate With the Taliban - The Atlantic opinion

Pakistan

Official: Pakistani Troops Kill 54 Militants in NW - Associated Press

Policeman Killed in Pakistan Suicide Attack - BBC News

Libya / Operation Odyssey Dawn

Rebels Targeted in Air Strikes Despite No-Fly Zone - Washington Post

Libyan Rebels Say Airstrikes Killed 5 - New York Times

Voice of Libya's Rebellion is Up and Spinning - Los Angeles Times

Besieged Libyan City at Center of Stalemate - Washington Times

General: U.S. May Consider Sending Troops into Libya - Associated Press

Libya Stalemate Emerging, U.S. General Says - Reuters

Libyan Rebels Say NATO Strikes Hit Their Forces Again - Associated Press

NATO Says Its Planes Struck Libyan Rebels - Associated Press

NATO Offers No Apology for Airstrike on Rebel Tanks - New York Times

NATO 'Apologises for Hitting Libya Rebels' - BBC News

UNICEF: Snipers Targeting Children in Libya City - Associated Press

Rebels Counter Gaddafi Assault on Misrata - Reuters

4 Foreign Journalists Kidnapped in Libya - New York Times

Lockerbie Investigators Interview Top Libyan Defector - New York Times

Keeping Ahead of Qaddafi - New York Times editorial

U.S. Faces a Libya Stalemate - Time opinion

Egypt

Egypt Protests Go On, Seeking New Beginning - New York Times

Egyptian Protesters Demand Mubarak Prosecution - Associated Press

Mubarak's Top Aide Held in Egypt Corruption Probe - Associated Press

After Tahrir Square - Washington Post opinion

Yemen

U.S. Told of Yemeni's Vulnerability - Washington Post

U.S. Froze Record Yemen Aid Package in February - Reuters

Gulf Coalition Seeking Ouster of Yemeni President - New York Times

Iraq

Gates, in Iraq Valedictory, Points to Progress - Washington Post

Kirkuk Tensions Highlight Concerns Over U.S. Exit - New York Times

Gates: U.S. Iraq Troops 'Could Stay Longer' - BBC News

U.S. Pushes Iraq to Decide on Troop Extension - Reuters

Gates: U.S. Future in Iraq is Unresolved - Stars and Stripes

Gates Discusses Post-2011 U.S.-Iraqi Relations - AFPS

Gates Visits Kurdish Leaders in Iraq - Associated Press

Austin Notes Progress Over Eight Years in Iraq - AFPS

Iraqi Forces Storm Settlement of Iranian Exiles - Associated Press

Iran

Is Iran Operating Secret Nuke Sites? - Washington Post

Group Claims Another Iranian Nuclear Facility - Washington Times

Outgoing Lebanese PM Slams Iran for Meddling - Associated Press

UNESCO Awards Media Prize to Jailed Iranian - Associated Press

Iran Gas Pipelines Explode, No Reason Given - Reuters

Iran's Blue-Collar Revolution - Foreign Policy opinion

Syria

Protesters In Syria Plan Large March Near Capital - New York Times

Protests Planned in Syria Despite Overtures - Associated Press

Syria's Assad Grants Nationality to Hasaka Kurds - BBC News

Syria's Assad Tries to Appease Kurds After Unrest - Reuters

Syrian Authorities Arrest Prominent Cleric-Activists - Reuters

Syria: Where the 'Arab Spring' Ends - Time opinion

West Needs Reality Check on Syria - The Australian opinion

Saudi Arabia

Obama's Dilemma over Saudi Arabia - Washington Post opinion

Bahrain

Crown Prince 'No Leniency' on Threats to Bahrain - Reuters

Israel / Palestinians

Missile Hits Israeli School Bus - Washington Post

Israel's Attacks on Hamas a 'Policy of Prevention' - Washington Times

Gaza Violence: Hamas Declares Ceasefire with Israel - BBC News

Hamas Govt: Gaza Militants Agree to Cease Fire - Associated Press

Gaza: Israeli Forces Strike after Attack on Bus - BBC News

Israeli Air Strike Kills Two Hamas Men in Gaza - Reuters

Israel Uses New Anti-Missile System as Gaza Flares - Reuters

Israel's PM Says New Defense Shield Successful - Associated Press

Japan Earthquake / Tsunami

Millions Without Power After Japan Aftershock - New York Times

Powerful Aftershock Shakes Japan off Sendai Coast - Washington Times

Japan Nuclear Crisis Ebbing, U.S. Experts Say - Los Angeles Times

Japan: Earthquake Prompts Fukushima Evacuation - BBC News

Japan Says Economy in 'Severe' Condition After Disaster - Reuters

U.S. Department of Defense

Deputy Defense Secretary Releases Shutdown Guidance - AFPS

Officials Discuss DOD's Government Shutdown Plans - AFPS

Secretary Discusses Women in Combat, Keeping Leaders - AFPS

Guard Should Remain an Operational Reserve, Leaders Say - AFPS

United States

No Deal after Latest White House Budget Talks - Washington Post

White House Meeting on Budget Fails to End Impasse - New York Times

Federal Workers Brace for the Worst - Washington Post

Government Shutdown Would Have Wide Ripples - New York Times

A Test of Obama's Leadership Style - Washington Post

Terror Suspects Held Weeks in Secret - Associated Press

NC Academy Head Suspected of Posing as Vietnam Vet - Associated Press

Africa

Standoff Continues, Bleaker Outlook for Ivory Coast - New York Times

Ivory Coast Leader in Bunker Vows Not to Surrender - Associated Press

Ouattara Isolates Gbagbo, Seeks Ivorian Recovery - Reuters

Ivory Coast: Laurent Gbagbo 'Running Out of Troops' - BBC News

Ivory Coast: Ouattara Wants E.U. Sanctions Lifted - BBC News

Did U.N. Forces Take Sides in Ivory Coast? - BBC News

Gbagbo's Rule Violently Divided Ivory Coast - Los Angeles Times

Beware of a Vacuum in Ivory Coast - Financial Times opinion

In Ivory Coast, Democrat to Dictator - New York Times opinion

Sudan Deploys Tanks, Helicopters Near Abyei - Reuters

Key Kenya Figures Appear at ICC over Post-poll Violence - BBC News

Nigeria: Some Elections Delayed Again - Associated Press

$350 Million in U.S. Aid for Malawi Goes Through - Associated Press

Africom Commander Fears al-Qaida will Link with Pirates - Associated Press

Finnish Navy Captures Suspected Pirates - BBC News

Americas

World Bank: Violence to Hit Central America Growth - Reuters

Mexican Gunmen Tap Bus Passengers in Mass Killing - Associated Press

U.S. Expels Ecuadorean Ambassador Luis Gallegos - BBC News

Mass Student Protests in Colombia - BBC News

Brazil School Shooting: 12 Dead after Gunman Opens Fire - BBC News

Venezuela Polarized over Chavez's Land Policy - Los Angeles Times

Blackout Hits Most Venezuelan States, Caracas - Reuters

Haiti Prime Minister Wants More Scrutiny for NGOs - Associated Press

Why Not in Cuba? - Washington Post opinion

Asia Pacific

China: Ai Weiwei Held for 'Economic Crimes' - Washington Post

North Korea Parliament Watched for Signs of Succession - BBC News

U.N. Seeks to Free Child Soldiers From Philippine Rebel Ranks - Reuters

Philippine Forces Kill 9 Suspected Gangsters - Associated Press

Central Asia

Kazakhstan's President Sworn In for New Term - Associated Press

Kazakh Government Resigns After President Inaugurated - Reuters

Europe

Russian Insurgent Leader Hints at More Attacks - Reuters

Despite Aid Request, Portugal's Outlook Uncertain - Associated Press

Spain to Welcome Cuban Dissidents - BBC News

Spain Receives 37 More Cuban Ex-Political Prisoners - Associated Press

Kosovo Assembly Elects President - Associated Press

South Asia

India Activist Anna Hazare Anti-graft Fast Stokes Anger - BBC News

Indian Freed from Pakistani Jail after 27 Years - BBC News

Blast Kills Religious Leader in Indian Kashmir - Associated Press

Bomb in Indian Kashmir Kills Prominent Muslim Cleric - Reuters

Sri Lanka Website Editor Bennett Rupasinghe is Bailed - BBC News

DOD Government Shutdown Guidance

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 5:47pm
Deputy Defense Secretary Releases Shutdown Guidance

By Cheryl Pellerin

American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON, April 7, 2011 -- The Defense Department is hopeful that a government shutdown will be averted, but is releasing guidance to help plan for an orderly process if a shutdown becomes necessary, Deputy Defense Secretary William J. Lynn III said in a memo issued today.

"The president and the [Defense] Secretary [Robert M. Gates] know that the uncertainty of the current situation puts federal employees in a difficult position and are very much aware that a shutdown would impose hardships on our military and civilian personnel as well as our military families," Lynn wrote.

Operations and activities essential to safety and to protect human life and property will not be shut down, he wrote.

Addressing duty status, Lynn wrote that military personnel are not subject to furlough and should report for duty during a shutdown. Civilian personnel performing excepted activities will continue to work during a shutdown, he wrote.

The Defense Department will continue to conduct activities in support of national security, Lynn wrote, including operations in Iraq, Afghanistan and Japan, as well as Libya-related support operations and other activities essential to national security.

Continuing operations include the following, Lynn wrote:

-- Inpatient and emergency outpatient care in DOD medical treatment facilities and emergency dental care;

-- Dining facilities and child-care activities;

-- Some legal activities, and contracting and logistics operations supporting excepted activities;

-- Some education and training activities, including Department of Defense Education Activity schools, and some financial management activities.

"In the absence of appropriations, non-excepted activities that have not already been fully funded will need to be shut down in an orderly fashion," Lynn wrote.

He will issue more detailed guidance to the department regarding specific activities that are considered excepted or non-excepted. Lynn wrote that he understands the military departments, defense agencies and individual commanders must tailor this guidance to many different situations around the world.

"Therefore, should there be a government shutdown, DOD personnel will be informed through their chain of command about how a shutdown may affect them personally," he wrote.

On the topic of military, civilian and retiree pay, Lynn said if the government shuts down because of a lack of funding, DOD will have no funds to pay military members or civilian employees for the days during which the government is shut down.

But military and civilian personnel will receive pay for time worked before the shutdown, he said, and military personnel and civilians in excepted positions will be paid retroactively for their work during the shutdown once the department receives additional funding.

"Congress would have to provide authority in order for the department to retroactively pay non-excepted employees for the furloughed period," Lynn wrote.

Benefits for military retirees and annuitants should continue without interruption, he added.

More:

Potential U.S. Government Shutdown - DOD Web Page

Message to DOD Workforce on Potential Government Shutdown - DOD

Potential Impact of a Lapse in Appropriations on Federal Employees - OPM

Officials Discuss DOD's Government Shutdown Plans - AFPS

Agency-by-Agency Shutdown Details - Washington Post

Shutdown 2011: What to Expect - Washington Post

Shutdown Could Affect Young Troops Most, Gates Says - AFPS

No Agreement on U.S. Budget Deal Day Before Government Shutdown - VOA

Progress on Budget Fight, but No Deal Yet - New York Times

No Deal After Latest White House Budget Talks - Washington Post

Troops' Pay Would be Withheld Until Shutdown Resolved - Stars and Stripes

Budget Fight Could Delay Troops' Pay - New York Times

Shutdown Weighs Heavily on Off-base Residents - Stars and Stripes

Gates Tells Troops in Iraq Paychecks May Not Come - Stars and Stripes

Government Shutdown: How it Will Affect Veterans - Stars and Stripes

7 April SWJ Roundup

Thu, 04/07/2011 - 1:01am
Afghanistan

U.S. Pledges Money to Jump-start Peace Program - Washington Post

Top Afghan Official Confirms Talks With the Taliban - New York Times

Taliban in Talks with Karzai Government - United Press International

NATO Kills Policeman Who Shot U.S. Trainers - Associated Press

Afghans Investigate Reports NATO Raid Killed Civilians - BBC News

Afghan Officials: 2-3 Men Suspected in U.N. Attack - Associated Press

Fatal Car Crash Sparks Afghan Protest - Voice of America

U.S. Troops Suffer More Catastrophic Injuries - Los Angeles Times

Al Qaeda Returns to Afghanistan - PBS opinion

Pakistan

Pakistan Rejects U.S. Taliban Report - BBC News

Pakistan Rejects US Assessment of Its Terror Fight - Associated Press

Four Children Killed in North-western Blast - BBC News

Pakistan's Problem: It's Not British Enough - Daily Telegraph opinion

Libya / Operation Odyssey Dawn

Changing Libyan Tactics Pose Problems for NATO - New York Times

NATO Officials say Gaddafi Using Human Shields - Washington Post

Libyan Rebels Bide Their Time - Los Angeles Times

Libyan Rebels Don't Really Add Up to an Army - New York Times

Qaddafi Writes to Obama, Urging End to Airstrikes - New York Times

Gadhafi Sends Letter to Obama, Asks to End Air War - Associated Press

U.S. Rebuffs Letter Sent by Gaddafi - BBC News

Former U.S. Rep in Libya to Seek Gadhafi's Exit - Associated Press

Top Libyans Said to Be Very Scared - Associated Press

Text of New Qaddafi Letter to Obama - New York Times

Immigrant Boat Capsizes Off Italy; 250 Missing - Associated Press

Should U.S. Warplanes Leave Libya? - Washington Post editorial

Haze of Humanitarian Imperialism - Washington Post opinion

What's Obama's Mission in Libya? - Real Clear Politics opinion

NATO Doesn't Have What It Takes in Libya - Toronto Star opinion

Egypt

Egypt's Former Minister Arrested Over Corruption - Associated Press

Battle for Egypt's Future - Washington Post opinion

Yemen

Tens of Thousands Demand President's Removal in Yemen - Voice of America

Saudi and Allies Focus on Yemen's Saleh Exit - Reuters

Belated Realism on Yemen - New York Times editorial

Iraq

Gates in Baghdad for Talks With Iraqi Officials - Associated Press

Gates Visits Baghdad Ahead of U.S. Withdrawal - Reuters

Gates to Warn Iraqis Time is Running Out - Stars and Stripes

Gates: Some US Troops May Stay if Iraq Wants - Associated Press

Iran

U.S. Says Iran Is Meddling In Bahrain - Wall Street Journal

Iran Rewrites Its Own History - The National opinion

Syria

Syria Tries To Placate Sunnis And Kurds - New York Times

Syria's Assad Makes Overture to Kurds After Demos - Associated Press

Dissidents From Syria Seek Haven in Lebanon - New York Times

Saudi Arabia

Gates Meets with Saudi King - Washington Post

Defense Chief Is on Mission To Mend Saudi Relations - New York Times

Gates Tries to Soothe Saudis Rattled by Unrest - Associated Press

Gates, Saudi King Discuss Defense Relationship - AFPS

U.S.-Saudi Relationship 'In a Good Place,' Gates Says - AFPS

Bahrain

Bahrain's Rulers Tighten Their Grip on Opposition - New York Times

Oman

Oman Offers Lessons to a Region Embroiled in Protest - New York Times

Israel / Palestinians

Bid for State of Palestine Gets Support From IMF - New York Times

Netanyahu, Merkel Meet in Germany on Mideast - Associated Press

Israel to Germany: Drop Palestinian Statehood Plan - Associated Press

Former Israeli Defense Chiefs Push New Peace Plan - Voice of America

Israeli Ex-defence Chiefs Offer Palestinian Peace Plan - BBC News

Netanyahu Wary of Arab Revolutions - Washington Post

Poll: 32% of Palestinians Support Settler Attack - Associated Press

Palestinians: Women Rounded Up in Settler Killing - Associated Press

Mr. Goldstone's Regrets - Boston Herald editorial

Goldstone's Investigation a One-Sided Sham - Boston Globe opinion

Goldstone Hasn't Absolved Israel - Washington Post opinion

Middle East / North Africa Unrest

Latest Developments in Arab World's Unrest - Associated Press

Unintended and Intended Consequences - United Press International opinion

Arab Spring Threatens U.S. Bases - Foreign Affairs opinion

Japan Earthquake / Tsunami

Crisis at Japan Nuclear Plant Shifts to New Blast Risk - Voice of America

Japan Quake: Nitrogen Pumped into Nuclear Reactor - BBC News

Preventing Blasts a Focus at Japan Nuclear Plant - Associated Press

Japan Focuses on Hydrogen Buildup - Reuters

Cleaning Up Radioactive Water Could Take Decades - Los Angeles Times

U.N. Expert: Fukushima Not as Bad as Chernobyl - Associated Press

Wikileaks

WikiLeaks Chief Extradition Appeal Set for July - Associated Press

U.S. Department of Defense

Pay Would be Withheld Until Shutdown Resolved - Stars and Stripes

Africom Faces Historic Time Amid Growing Challenges - AFPS

Transcom Stays on Schedule Through Contingencies - AFPS

U.S. Army Deserter Denied Asylum by Germany - Stars and Stripes

United States

Obama to Get New War Policy Team - New York Times

National Security Team Gets a Reset - Washington Post

Budget Talks to Continue as Possible Government Shutdown Looms - VOA

Negotiators Race Against Clock for Budget Deal - Washington Post

Obama Meeting Fails to End Stalemate Over Federal Budget - New York Times

Obama Says Shutdown Would be 'Inexcusable' - Washington Post

Contingency Plan for Shutdown Packs Mean Punch - Los Angeles Times

Washington Braces for Shutdown - Washington Post

WH Looks Arrogant, Clueless on Gitmo - New York Post opinion

Political Correctness with Muslims Has to Stop - NRO opinion

Obama's 21st-Century War - Foreign Affairs opinion

United Nations

U.N. Chief Heads to Washington for Talks - Associated Press

International Criminal Court

Flurry of Activity as ICC Tackles Current Wars - Associated Press

Africa

Ivory Coast Opposition Pounds at Strongman - New York Times

Ivory Coast: Gbagbo Repels Attack - BBC News

Ivory Coast: Gbagbo's Home Under Fire - Associated Press

Ouattara Forces Lay Siege to Ivory Coast's Gbagbo - Reuters

Nigerian President Backs Election Chief Despite Poll Delay - Voice of America

A Former Military Ruler Rises Again in Nigeria - Associated Press

Sudan Accuses Israel in Deadly Airstrike - Voice of America

Sudan Blocks Release of Independent Newspaper - Voice of America

Anniversary of Rwandan Genocide Brings Declarations, Warnings - VOA

Americas

Mexicans March Against Drug Violence - BBC News

59 Bodies Found in Pits in Mexican Border State - Associated Press

Official: Mexican Cartels Hiring Common Criminals - Associated Press

U.S. and Colombia Near Trade Pact - New York Times

Haiti's Pop Star President Takes Conservative Tack - Associated Press

Haiti's Leader Criticizes U.N. Military Focus - Associated Press

Hope Amid the Obstacles in Haiti - Miami Herald editorial

Asia Pacific

U.S. Diplomat Sharply Criticizes China on Rights - New York Times

Voices Behind China's Protest Calls - Associated Press

Chinese Artist / Activist Investigated for 'Economic Crimes' - Reuters

U.S.: North Korea May Be Considering More Attacks - Reuters

Activist Group Says Thailand Used Cluster Shells - Associated Press

Thailand 'Admits Cluster Bombing' - BBC News

Vietnam Detains 2 Prominent Dissidents - Associated Press

Philippine Tribal Gunmen Free Teachers on Mindanao - BBC News

Europe

Portugal Seeks Bail-out from E.U. - BBC News

Tunisian Migrants Open Tensions in Europe - New York Times

Turkey Replaces Coup Plot Prosecutors - Associated Press

South Asia

Mumbai Attacks in 2008 Still Divide India and Pakistan - Washington Post

Hunger Strike Focuses Anger on Indian Corruption - Associated Press

Welcome home, al Qaeda

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 12:15pm
An article in today's Wall Street Journal discussed the return of al Qaeda to the mountain valleys of eastern Afghanistan. In doing so, the piece questioned the goals, assumptions, and logic underlying the United States strategy in the region. If the incidents described in the Wall Street Journal piece turn into trends, defenders of the current U.S. strategy in Afghanistan will likely find themselves increasingly under siege. And with disparate developments in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, and elsewhere conspiring to inhibit the ability of the United States to locally suppress al Qaeda, policymakers may be forced to devise an entirely new approach to counterterrorism.

Over the past year or so, U.S. military commanders in eastern Afghanistan opted to abandon their efforts to pacify a variety of remote mountain valleys such as Korengal, Pech, and others. The high costs of maintaining outposts in these valleys were deemed to exceed the strategic importance of the terrain. In addition, commanders concluded that local populations who resisted so fiercely were effectively neutral in the conflict between the coalition and the Taliban. They figured that conceding the valleys back to local control would not necessarily mean turning the terrain over to the Taliban or al Qaeda since it was assumed that many of these locals would equally resist the presence of the coalition's adversaries.

According to the Wall Street Journal, that assumption is not coming to pass:

Over the past six to eight months, al Qaeda has begun setting up training camps, hideouts and operations bases in the remote mountains along Afghanistan's northeastern border with Pakistan, some U.S., Afghan and Taliban officials say. The stepped-up infiltration followed a U.S. pullback from large swatches of the region starting 18 months ago. The areas were deemed strategically irrelevant and left to Afghanistan's uneven security forces, and in some parts, abandoned entirely.

American commanders have argued that the U.S. military presence in the remote valleys was the main reason why locals joined the Taliban. Once American soldiers left, they predicted, the Taliban would go, too. Instead, the Taliban have stayed put, a senior U.S. military officer said, and "al Qaeda is coming back."

Such re-infiltration is a direct affront to the Obama administration's goal "to disrupt, dismantle, and eventually defeat al Qaeda and to prevent their return to either Afghanistan or Pakistan."

The U.S. command in Afghanistan has been well aware of the problem. Last September, a large U.S. air strike on the Korengal valley blasted a budding al Qaeda training camp, killing dozens of Arab fighters, two senior al Qaeda leaders, and one of Saudi Arabia's most-wanted al Qaeda militants. Termed "mowing the grass," such air strikes and direct action raids would seem to be an acceptance of periodic "Bidenesque" counterterrorism suppression instead of a hoped-for permanent pacification through counterinsurgency.

The U.S. surge strategy in Afghanistan hopes to achieve two goals. First, it hopes to buy time to permit a buildup of Afghan security forces so that they can maintain security in the country. Even if this hope is achieved in Afghanistan's urban areas, the Afghan government's imminent control and pacification of places like the Korengal and Pech valleys is not in anyone's imagination. Second, U.S. policymakers hope the surge will create negotiating leverage over the Taliban, leading to a political settlement. Such a settlement would undoubtedly include a ceasefire which would favor Taliban and al Qaeda re-infiltration into ungoverned spaces like the Korengal and Pech valleys.

Meanwhile political upheaval in Yemen and elsewhere in the Arab world is disrupting previous U.S. counterterrorism programs and relationships. U.S. policymakers may have to rethink assumptions they may have held concerning the cooperation they expect to receive from local governments.

The basic U.S. strategy for countering al Qaeda has been to build up indigenous security forces to govern previously ungoverned spaces. This is a very long-term project which in the meantime has resulted in many "no-go" areas. Even when it had its own significant ground combat power at its disposal, U.S. military commanders have found it too costly to impose their will in some wild areas, such as some mountain valleys in eastern Afghanistan. In other places like Yemen and possibly Egypt, the U.S. government may end up losing the counterterrorism relationships it previously had with local officials. The result will be the reopening of sanctuaries for al Qaeda and a setback for the current U.S. strategy. The fallback plan will be periodic Bidenesque "lawn mowing." But this alternative is likely to be insufficient and will create its own problems. Policymakers will soon be scrambling for a new counterterrorism strategy.

Afghanistan Progress Easier for Soldiers to See

Wed, 04/06/2011 - 12:07pm
U.S. Progress in Afghanistan Easier for Soldiers than Civilians to See by Stephen Biddle and Michael O'Hanlon, Baltimore Sun. BLUF: "... there has been real progress. But much of it has been concentrated in previously very dangerous places such as Helmand, Kandahar and Khost. Here, entrenched Taliban insurgents have increasingly been driven from districts they had once controlled so solidly that even heavily armed coalition troops could not enter without pitched battles."