| Small Wars Journal

Message to the Next SecDef by Colonel Joseph J. Collins, USA Ret., Armed Forces Journal. BLUF: "To get us through this budget crisis, we don't need a new strategy; we need prudence, visionary leadership and tough management."

How to Deal with Libyan Ambiguity

How to Deal with Libyan Ambiguity: Define the Problem, Not the End State by Captain (Major-select) Crispin Burke at Best Defense. BLUF: "So, for the moment, let's stop babbling about mission objectives, end states, and withdrawal plans. Instead, let's focus on the more immediate: the problems in Libya, their underlying causes. Next, we need to understand how solving one problem affects other problems?"

Read more about How to Deal with Libyan Ambiguity

2 April SWJ Roundup

Afghanistan

U.N. Staff Killed During Afghan Protest - Voice of America

Afghans Angry Over Koran Burning Kill U.N. Staff - New York Times

Afghan Protests of Koran Burning Turn Deadly - Washington Post

Mob Kills 8 U.N. Workers in Afghanistan - Los Angeles Times

Protests Turn Deadly at Afghan U.N. Office - Wall Street Journal

Deadly Protests for Koran Burning Reach Kandahar - New York Times

Kabul: 5 Die in Quran Burning Protest - Voice of America

Day 2: 5 Die in Quran Burning Protest - Associated Press

Five Dead in Second Day of Koran Burning Protests - Reuters

U.N. Staff Killed by Enraged Afghan Mob - Christian Science Monitor

U.N. Staff Killed During Protest in N. Afghanistan - BBC News

United Nations Mission Rocked by Mob Killings - The Guardian

Seven Killed in Worst-ever Attack on U.N. Workers - Daily Telegraph

U.N. Staff Beheaded as Afghans Rage Against Pastor - The Indpendent

Afghans Angry at Quran Burning Kill 7 at U.N. Office - Associated Press

U.N. Death Toll in Afghan Attack May Hit 20 - Reuters

U.N. Condemns Deadly Attack on Afghan Office - Associated Press

U.S. 'Deeply Shocked' by U.N. Killings in Afghanistan - Voice of America

Obama Condemns Violence in Afghanistan - USA Today

Canada Condemns Afghan Attack on U.N. Workers - Agence France-Presse

Koran Burning Ignored in U.S., News in Af and Pak - New York Times

Should Media Have Reported Fla. Quran Burning? - USA Today

Massacre in Mazar - Foreign Policy opinion

The Mazar Killings - Registan opinion

The Consequences of Qur'an Burning - The Guardian opinion

Pakistan

Pakistan Ready for Middle East Role - Asia Times

Libya / Operation Odyssey Dawn

Qaddafi Envoy Visits London as Tensions Mount in Libya - New York Times

Stalemate in Libya Increasingly Viewed as Outcome - Washington Post

Libyan Rebels Set Cease-Fire Conditions - Voice of America

Rebels Prepared to Accept Cease-fire - Washington Post

Kadafi Govt Rebuffs Rebel Cease-fire Offer - Los Angeles Times

Rebel Attack on Brega Ends in Stalemate - New York Times

Libya's Misrata Under Intense Bombardment - Reuters

More Disciplined Libyan Opposition Force Emerging - Associated Press

Libyan Government Dismisses Rebels' 'Mad' Truce Offer - Reuters

Red Cross Holds Talks on Wider Libya Aid Role - Reuters

Nicaraguan Drops Plans to Become Libya's U.N. Envoy - Reurters

The Libyan Rebellion Interactive Map - New York Times

Will Libya Become Obama's Iraq? - Washington Post opinion

How to Counter Gaddafi's Regime - Washington Post opinion

Dictator Seeks a Second Home? - Washington Post opinion

Egypt

Thousands Protest to 'Save the Revolution' In Egypt - Voice of America

Protesters Scold Egypt's Military Council - New York Times

Thousands Call for Trials of Egypt Regime Figures - Associated Press

In Egypt's Democracy, Room for Islam - New York Times opinion

Tunisia

Police Clash With Protesters in Tunisian Capital - Associated Press

Yemen

Rival Protests Fill Streets as Yemen's President Defiant - Voice of America

Dueling Protests Grip Yemeni Capital - New York Times

Yemenis Hold Largest Protest Yet Against Leader - Associated Press

Yemen's Saleh Again Signals He's Staying Put - Reuters

Syria

At Least 4 Killed in Syrian Clashes - Voice of America

Syrian Protesters Clash With Security Forces - New York Times

Syrian Protesters Clash With Security Forces - Associated Press

Thousands Call for Freedom in Syria, 3 Killed in Unrest - Reuters

Syrian Authorities Make Arrests Following Protests - Associated Press

Syria Arrests More Than 20 Over Unrest - Reuters

Syrians Release 2 Americans Detained at Protests - Associated Press

Iraq

Officials: Bomber Kills 3 Outside Iraqi Mosque - Associated Press

Al-Qaida Claims Responsibility for N. Iraq Attack - Associated Press

Al Qaeda Claims Responsibility for Iraq's Tikrit Attack - Reuters

Iran

Iranians Give Thoughts on Arab Protests and Unrest - Los Angeles Times

KSA Slams Iran's Statement - Saudi Gazette

The Islamic Republic After 32 Years - Voice of America editorial

Obama Right to Press U.N. on Monitoring Iran - Washington Post opinion

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Shi'ites Protest Peacefully in East - Reuters

Bahrain

Opposition: More than 300 Detained in Crackdown - Voice of America

Crackdown in Bahrain Enflames Iraq's Shiites - Associated Press

Bahrain Steps Up Detentions, Frees Prominent Blogger - Reuters

Oman

Omani Police Fire Tear Gas at Protesters - Associated Press

Oman Protester Dies After Clashes - Associaed Press

Oman Detained Up to 60 During Clashes - Reuters

Israel / Palestinians

Gaza: Hamas Militants Killed in Israeli Air Strike - BBC News

Israeli Airstrike Kills Gaza Militants - Associated Press

Israeli Air Strike Kills Three Militants in Gaza - Reuters

Revisiting the Gaza War - Washington Post opinion

Middle East / North Africa Unrest

Protests Flare Across the Middle East - Washington Post

At Least Four Die in Protests Across Arab World - Reuters

Latest Updates on Libyan War and Mideast Protests - New York Times

Latest Developments in Arab World's Unrest - Associated Press

Japan Earthquake / Tsunami

Leak Found in Reactor Pit as Japan PM Tours Disaster Zone - Reuters

U.S., Japanese Forces Search for Missing Tsunami Victims - Voice of America

Reactor Core Severely Damaged, U.S. Official Says - New York Times

Japan's Attention Turns to Reconstruction - Washington Post

Piracy

Caribbean Ship Testing New Anti-Piracy System - Associated Press

U.S. Department of Defense

Rumsfeld Remains on Defense at Panel Discussion - Washington Post

Bill Ensures Troops Get Paid if Govt Shuts Down - Stars and Stripes

'DADT' Could be History by End of Summer - Stars and Stripes

Mullen Assesses Global Security Environment - AFPS

DOD to Drop Social Security Numbers from ID Cards - AFPS

United States

Anti-Islam Pastor Responds to Killings in Afghanistan - Wall Street Journal

Pastor Who Burned Koran Demands Retribution - New York Times

Koran Burning by Pastor Initially Went Unnoticed - Washington Post

Koran Burning Pastor Calls Afghan Mob Killings Tragic - Los Angeles Times

Florida Pastor Is Focus of Muslim Outrage, Again - Reuters

Koran-burning Pastor Says Not Responsible for Deaths - Agence France-Presse

Why We Say We Fight - Washington Post Presidential quotations

The Truth About American Muslims - New York Times editorial

United Kingdom

N. Ireland Man Acquitted Over 1977 Murder of Soldier - Associated Press

Africa

Ivory Coast Fighting Spreads to Abidjan - Voice of America

End of Ivory Coast Battle Seems Near - New York Times

Ivory Coast Fighters Make Final Push - Washington Post

Ivory Coast President Battles On, Rival's Forces Close In - Los Angeles Times

'Hundreds Killed' in Ivory Coast - BBC News

Ivory Coast Standoff May Be Near End Amid Battles - Associated Press

Fierce Fighting Spreads in Ivory Coast Showdown - Reuters

Fighting Rages in Ivory Coast, 800 Dead in One Town - Reuters

Entrenched Ivory Coast Leader Calls for Resistance - Associated Press

Relief, Rights Groups Say Ivory Coast Civilians in Harm's Way - VOA

U.N. Base in Ivory Coast Town Where Hundreds Killed - Associated Press

A Look at Key Figures in Ivory Coast Conflict - Associated Press

U.S. Special Envoy Departs for Meetings on Sudan - Reuters

African Leaders Pressure President of Zimbabwe - New York Times

Zimbabwe's Defiant Leader Shuns Regional Mediators - Associated Press

Zimbabwe: Robert Mugabe Hits Back at Regional Criticism - Reuters

Nigerians Prepare for Nationwide Elections on April 2 - Voice of America

Slow Start to First Round of Nigerian Voting - Associated Press

Nigerian Election Hit by Postponements - Reuters

Nigeria in Poll Violence Warning - BBC News

Personalities Overshadow Policy in Nigeria Polls - Associated Press

Americas

Young Boy Among 4 Killed at Mexico Burrito Stand - Associated Press

Asia Pacific

Gunmen in South Philippines Kidnap 16, Set Demands - Associated Press

Central Asia

Kazakhs Schedule a Rare Presidential Vote - New York Times

Kazakh Leadership Sees Reform After Staid Election - Associated Press

In Kazakh Heartland, Support for Leader Unwavering - Reuters

Europe

World Court Ends Georgia's Case Against Russia - Associated Press

World Court Drops Georgia's Case Against Russia - Reuters

Germany's Greens Prepare for Power, Major Tests - New York Times

Rude and Crude Behavior Stains Italian Parliament - New York Times

Migrants Escape Italian Tent Camp - Associated Press

Spain's Prime Minister Won't Seek 3rd Term - Associated Press

Argentine Judge: Turkey Caused 'Armenian Genocide' - Associated Press

South Asia

Suspected Rebels Kill 3 Indian Soldiers - Associated Press

Read more about 2 April SWJ Roundup

U.N. Staff Killed During Afghan Protest (Updated)

U.N. Staff Killed During Afghan Protest - Voice of America

At least 12 people, including eight foreign employees of the United Nations, have been killed in northern Afghanistan, after a protest against the burning of the Quran turned violent, Afghan police said Friday.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon condemned as "cowardly" the attack on the U.N. mission 's compound in Mazar-e-Sharif, the capital of Balkh province.

Afghan officials said demonstrators stormed the U.N. office during protests against the recent burning of the Quran by an American preacher in the southern U.S. state of Florida. Afghan President Hamid Karzai had condemned the Quran burning, and called on the United States to bring those responsible to justice.

On Friday, more than a thousand demonstrators took to the streets of Mazar-e-Sharif after Friday prayers. Afghan officials said the protest outside the U.N. mission began peacefully, but that some of the demonstrators overran the compound's security guards, killing them. Police say protesters then entered the building, setting it on fire, and beheading some of the U.N. workers inside.

Afghan officials said the dead included at least three Afghan protesters and five Nepalese U.N. guards.

The top U.N. official in Afghanistan, Staffan de Mistura, was said to be heading to the northern city.

Demonstrations against the Quran burning were also held Friday in the Afghan capital, Kabul, and the western city of Herat, where protesters shouted anti-American slogans. No violence was reported.

In October of 2009, militants killed six U.N. employees during an attack at a guesthouse in Kabul.

President Karzai recently selected the relatively-peaceful city of Mazar-e-Sharif as one of seven areas slated to be transferred from NATO to Afghan security forces this year as part of the security transition.

More

Afghans Angry Over Koran Burning Kill U.N. Staff - New York Times

Afghan Protests of Koran Burning Turn Deadly - Washington Post

Protests Turn Deadly at Afghan U.N. Office - Wall Street Journal

Mob Kills 8 U.N. Workers in Afghanistan - Los Angeles Times

Deadly Protests for Koran Burning Reach Kandahar - New York Times

Kabul: 5 Die in Quran Burning Protest - Voice of America

Day 2: 5 Die in Quran Burning Protest - Associated Press

Five Dead in Second Day of Koran Burning Protests - Reuters

U.N. Staff Killed During Protest in N. Afghanistan - BBC News

United Nations Mission Rocked by Mob Killings - The Guardian

Seven Killed in Worst-ever Attack on U.N. Workers - Daily Telegraph

U.N. Staff Beheaded as Afghans Rage Against Pastor - The Indpendent

Afghans Angry at Quran Burning Kill 7 at U.N. Office - Associated Press

U.N. Death Toll in Afghan Attack May Hit 20 - Reuters

U.N. Condemns Deadly Attack on Afghan Office - Associated Press

U.S. 'Deeply Shocked' by U.N. Killings in Afghanistan - Voice of America

Obama Condemns Violence in Afghanistan - USA Today

Anti-Islam Pastor Responds to Killings in Afghanistan - Wall Street Journal

Pastor Who Burned Koran Demands Retribution - New York Times

Koran Burning by Pastor Initially Went Unnoticed - Washington Post

Koran Burning Pastor Calls Afghan Mob Killings Tragic - Los Angeles Times

Koran-burning Pastor Says Not Responsible for Deaths - Agence France-Presse

Florida Pastor Is Focus of Muslim Outrage, Again - Reuters

Koran Burning Ignored in U.S., News in Af and Pak - New York Times

Should Media Have Reported Fla. Quran Burning? - USA Today

Massacre in Mazar - Foreign Policy opinion

The Mazar Killings - Registan opinion

The Consequences of Qur'an Burning - The Guardian opinion

This Week at War: Don't Arm the Rebels, Train Them

The ragtag anti-Qaddafi forces need basic combat skills a lot more than bigger guns.

Here is the latest edition of my column at Foreign Policy:

Topics include:

1) Libya's rebels need boot camp, not more weapons

2) A new bomber is cheaper than Tomahawks -- if you do enough bombing

Libya's rebels need boot camp, not more weapons

Two weeks ago, when an armored column loyal to Col. Muammar al-Qaddafi was poised to crush the rebellion in Benghazi, U.S. President Barack Obama dramatically reversed his policy and endorsed a limited air campaign against Qaddafi's forces. A week ago, the rebels were on the march toward Tripoli and seemingly on the verge of removing Qaddafi from power. Alas, it was not to be. A Qaddafi counterattack has sent the scattered rebels fleeing once again back toward Ajdabiya and Benghazi. This second setback for the rebels has resulted in a debate inside the White House over whether the coalition should arm the rebels, another escalation in the conflict.

On March 30, it was reported that CIA officers were in Libya with the rebels, making an assessment of their situation and possibly directing airstrikes in support of their fighters. We can gather from open sources much of what these intelligence officers are likely to report. As a military force, Libya's rebels are a disorganized rabble and seem incapable of preparing and holding defensive positions or maneuvering effectively against rudimentary enemy resistance. The rebels need boot camp, fundamental infantry training, and the development of some battlefield leaders, not a new stockpile of weapons.

Those Western leaders whose plan currently consists of hoping that Qaddafi will be spontaneously overthrown need to think again. Absent a Western invasion of the country, the rebel force is the only means of removing Qaddafi, and the rebels will need many months or even years of training before they are capable of defeating loyalist ground units and marching all the way to Tripoli.

A comparison with Afghanistan's Northern Alliance is instructive. The anti-Taliban Northern Alliance was the battle-hardened survivor of a decade-long struggle against the Soviet Red Army. After that Darwinian test, the Northern Alliance had capable leaders, a disciplined command structure, and proven tactics. When CIA and Special Forces advisors arrived in October 2001 to assist the Northern Alliance, they found a capable military force to support. By contrast, just a few weeks into their struggle, Libya's rebels are far from being able to accomplish the military goals they seek.

Some analysts have suggested that the rebels only need some anti-tank weapons to deal with Qaddafi's tanks and armored personnel carriers. The rebels already have a very effective anti-tank weapon at their disposal -- NATO airstrikes. But as I predicted two weeks ago, Qaddafi's forces have adapted to the arrival of coalition air power by abandoning their armored vehicles and now move about in the same pickup trucks used by the rebels. Out of fear of striking either rebel vehicles or civilians, coalition air attacks on Qaddafi's forces west of Ajdabiya appear stymied for the moment, which is allowing Qaddafi's superior firepower to batter the rebels in eastern Libya.

Obama's team and other Western policymakers fear a stalemate in Libya. A deadlock would make these leaders appear ineffectual against Qaddafi. They also fear an erosion of political support for the intervention both at home and internationally.

However, one advantage of a stalemate is that it would give the rebels, assisted by Special Forces advisers, the time necessary to organize and train for the long fight that will be required to push on to Tripoli. If Obama and other Western leaders are serious about removing Qaddafi from power -- without Western "boots on the ground" -- they and Libya's rebels will have to brace themselves for a long and nasty slog.

A new bomber is cheaper than Tomahawks -- if you do enough bombing

When military planners for Operation Odyssey Dawn received orders to demolish Libya's air defense system, they turned to a weapon they have used since the 1991 Desert Storm campaign against Iraq: the Tomahawk land-attack cruise missile. British and U.S. warships fired 110 Tomahawks during the first night of the conflict and have launched nearly 100 more over the following two weeks. War planners use the low-flying and virtually unstoppable missiles against air defenses and other targets they consider too dangerous to attack with manned aircraft.

With the Tomahawk missile once again performing the most dangerous missions, particularly against air defenses, why does the Pentagon insist on spending billions on a new stealth bomber, which is designed to foil the same air defenses the Tomahawk has been reliably neutralizing for two decades? Although the Pentagon has yet to disclose its description of the new airplane (a successor to the Air Force's B-1, B-2, and B-52s), the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, a well-connected Washington think tank, foresees a program costing as much as $56 billion for 100 new, heavy, long-range bombers.

Defenders of the next-generation stealth bomber point to two arguments for why their airplane will trump long-range stand-off missiles like the Tomahawk. First, bomber proponents believe the economics are on their side, at least given certain assumptions. Their case comes from an introductory microeconomics textbook. As explained in a report from Rand Corp., the Tomahawk missile, at a replacement cost of $1.5 million, is an example of a business with low fixed costs but high variable costs. Its competition in this case is a cheap old-fashioned gravity bomb fitted with a GPS guidance kit that costs only $22,000. Dropped from the exotic and very pricey stealth bomber, the Tomahawk's competition is an example of a high fixed-cost, low variable-cost business.

According to Rand, just 20 days of heavy cruise missile use over a 30-year period (the projected life of the new bomber) is enough to make the bomber the more economical alternative. If over that 30-year period, the bombers leave their hangers only a few times, it will be cheaper to attack those difficult targets with Tomahawks. But if the United States has more than 20 days of heavy bombing over those 30 years, it will be cheaper to send the pricey bomber armed with cheap GPS-guided bombs.

Bomber advocates also note that the Tomahawk cannot threaten those targets some adversaries value the most, those that are inside hardened bunkers or deep underground. The Tomahawk's maximum warhead weight is only 1,000 pounds, which is woefully inadequate against targets such as North Korea's buried nuclear facilities or Iran's underground uranium enrichment plant at Natanz. The Air Force's bombers are the only aircraft capable of the delivering the huge bunker-busting bombs that can penetrate very hardened and deeply buried targets.

The return of the Tomahawk cruise missile to combat may renew the debate over whether the U.S. Air Force needs a pricey new stealth bomber. According to Rand, the answer is a simple matter of break-even analysis. Over the past two decades, U.S. presidents have shown themselves quite ready to turn to air power to solve foreign-policy problems. Given that penchant, hitting Rand's break-even mark should be an easy assumption to make.

Robert Haddick on the The Brian Lehrer Show

Robert Haddick, SWJ's Managing Editor and This Week at War author, was a guest this morning on WNYC's The Brian Lehrer Show. You can listen to "The Web of Weapons" here. Robert provided a look at supplying weapons to Libyan rebels, the US's history of arming insurgencies and where Gadhafi has gotten his weapons.

Read more about Robert Haddick on the The Brian Lehrer Show

2nd Irregular Warfare Summit and a RFI

The purpose of this post is two-fold, firstly an announcement of the 2nd Irregular Warfare Summit sponsored by The Institute for Defense and Government Advancement on 23-25 May 2011 at the Key Bridge Marriott, Arlington, Virginia. You can find the agenda and administrative information at the link.

Secondly, and more importantly (at least to me), is a request for information concerning my presentation at this summit. I'm scheduled to kick off the "Small Wars Focus Day" on 23 May. The title of my pitch is "The New Media and Information Technologies: Capturing Irregular Warfare Lessons Learned, Best Practices and Emerging Concepts".

In my write up for IDGA I proposed a presentation that examines how the "new media", to include online publications, blogs and social media, and information technologies have impacted traditional roles, methods, and hierarchies in regards to lessons learned, best practices (tactics, techniques and procedures) and emerging irregular warfare associated emerging concepts. The use of the new media and information technologies in regards to strategic communications will also be addressed.

My intent is to build off an earlier RFI, Thoughts on the "New Media" - compiled by Small Wars Journal, I presented our community of interest and practice in March of 2009 and am requesting your thoughts on this issue. For starters (but not limited to) I'd appreciate feedback that addresses:

- What new media and information technologies have done in regards to IW associated issues.
- How the new media and information technologies have impacted "business as usual" within the U.S. Government and in particular the Department of Defense.
- Perspectives on the good, the bad, and the ugly in regards to strategic communications.
- Understanding the "state of new media and information technologies" and its relationship with irregular warfare.
- What has worked, what hasn't, and why -- government/military and private sector.
- Food for thought on the way ahead, or maybe, the way backwards.

Please chime in below or e-mail me at ddilegge at smallwarsjournal.com. I desire multiple perspectives on this subject and appreciate in advance your contribution!