Small Wars Journal

The Challenge of Violent Drug-Trafficking Organizations

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 5:23pm

The Challenge of Violent Drug-Trafficking Organizations: An Assessment of Mexican Security Based on Existing RAND Research on Urban Unrest, Insurgency, and Defense-Sector Reform by Christopher Paul, Agnes Gereben Schaefer, and Colin P. Clarke.

Violent drug-trafficking organizations (VDTOs) in Mexico produce, transship, and deliver into the United States tens of billions of dollars’ worth of narcotics annually, but their activities are not limited to drug trafficking. VDTOs have also engaged in human trafficking, weapon trafficking, kidnapping, money laundering, extortion, bribery, racketeering, and assassinations. In an effort to clarify the scope and details of the challenges posed by VDTOs, a RAND team conducted a Delphi expert elicitation exercise, the results of which offer an assessment of the contemporary security situation in Mexico through the lens of existing RAND research on related issues. The exercise centered around three strands of prior RAND research on urban instability and unrest, historical insurgencies, and defense-sector reform. Although this prior research was not designed specifically for the study of Mexico, all three areas offer applicable insights. Assessment scorecards from these projects were used to obtain input from the expert panel and to guide the resulting discussion. The goal was not to break significant new ground in understanding the dynamics of drug violence in Mexico or to offer a qualitative assessment of these dynamics, but rather to provide an empirically based platform for identifying key areas that merit further investigation.

Mexican Cartel Tactical Note # 5

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 2:11pm

Key Information:

Via “Monterrey: Army attacked in car bomb ambush.” Borderland Beat

Thursday, October 20, 2011 [1]: 

A parked car loaded with explosives was detonated by remote control as a military convoy drove by in Monterrey’s southside in an ambush reminiscent of attacks on U.S. forces in the Middle East.

The incident took place around 5:10 am this morning on Avenida Revolucion close to the intersection with Ricardo Covarrubias, in the Colonia Ladrillera, outside of a machine shop/auto garage.

A military source said that during a surveillance patrol in the Colonia Ladrillera soldiers detected a suspicious vehicle, a black Jetta, which resulted in a pursuit thru Avenida Revolución.

As the pursuit continued north on Avenida Revolucion a Nissan Sentra or Tsuru with Tamaulipas license plates was detonated remotely moments before the Army vehicles passed the location, between Berel and Ricardo Covarrubias.

No soldiers or civilians were reported injured in the attack.

Debris from the blast was scatterd over several meters. The door to the machine shop was heavily damaged and windows were broken in buildings for at least a block.

Avenida Revolucion remained closed as bomb experts and forensic examiners investigated the blast scene.

[Includes 8 photos of the incident scene and a 4 minute Mexican news video: view via http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2011/10/monterrey-army-attacked-in-car-bomb.html.]

Via “Army seizes explosives in Veracruz.” Borderland Beat. Thursday, October 20, 2011 [2]:

In a security operation that occurred Wednesday in the southern Veracruz city of Coatzacoalcos, military personnel seized high explosives, detonators, weapons, cell phones, military type equipment and stolen vehicles from a safehouse located in the colonia Brisas del Golfo area of the city.

The El Universal news agency reported that Mexican Army sources in Coatzacoalcos identified the explosives seized as 45 C-4 plastic explosive charges.

Five suspects were detained by the military during the operation.

[Includes 5 photos of the seized explosives, cell phones, vehicles and weapons: view via http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2011/10/army-seizes-explosives-in-veracruz.html].

VBIED Anti-Vehicular/Anti-Personnel Ambush:

Who: Los Zetas [assumed]

What: I&W event involving a VBIED (Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device)/car bomb deployed against a mounted Mexican Army patrol by means of an ambush.

When: Thursday, October 20, 2011 at 5:10am in the morning [3].

Where: On Avenida Revolucion close to the intersection with Ricardo Covarrubias, in the Colonia Ladrillera, outside of a machine shop/auto garage in Monterrey, Mexico.

Why: The Mexican military is attempting to help pacify Monterrey, Mexico, bring down the homicide rate, and limit local drug cartel and gang political influence. The ambush is a response to this Mexican military operation.

Tactical Analysis: Provides an Indications & Warning (I&W) event concerning Los Zetas [assumed] tactics and capabilities. A cell phone detonated improvised explosive device (IED) placed inside the trunk of a small sedan is the most plausible—making it a VBIED (vehicle borne IED)—method of attack. The explosive type utilized is unknown but C-4 is quite probable; these assumptions have not been confirmed forensically and therefore are only speculative. A cartel vehicle was used as bait to bring a mounted Mexican Army patrol into the prepared kill zone. The VBIED was detonated prematurely with no soldiers or civilians injured in the ambush. Scenario 1: The VBIED was meant to be utilized in an efficient anti-vehicular/anti-personnel role to produce maximum Mexican military causalities. The ambush was unsuccessful due to the premature VBIED detonation and/or the explosive yield/dynamics utilized (small yield/non- directional). Scenario 2: The VBIED was utilized symbolically (as a warning) to the Mexican military to cease/limit their operations in Monterrey [4]. No matter the accuracy of either scenario, this incident represents the first recorded use of a VBIED against a mounted Mexican Army patrol and a further escalation of VBIED tactical evolution taking place in the criminal insurgencies in Mexico. The VBIED in an ambush role component itself is not unique— it was utilized in the VBIED attack against dismounted Mexican law enforcement in July 2010 in Ciudad Juárez perpetrated by the Juárez cartel [5]. Explosives seized: The C-4 explosives (45 packages), detonators, and cell phones seized in Veracruz, Mexico, prior to the VBIED attack demonstrate that caches of bomb making materials belonging to Los Zetas [assumed] exist in other regions of Mexico and can be used to fabricate additional VBIEDs [2]. Further, if the recent Mexican Cartel Tactical Note No. 4 is referenced, it can be seen that C-4 explosives (3 packages) are once again identified related to a Los Zetas [assumed] weapons cache [6]. Potentials: The assumption must be considered that Los Zetas possess a growing VBIED fabrication and deployment capability.    

Significance: Cartel Weaponry; I&W; Officer Safety Issues; TTPs

Source(s):

1. The original Mexican news sources are:

http://www.elnorte.com/seguridad/articulo/654/1306879/.

http://www.elnorte.com/seguridad/articulo/654/1306973/.

2. The original Mexican news source is: http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/802722.html.

3. The alternative time of 4:00 AM for the incident has been provided in other news sources. Both times suggested would mean that the device was detonated under cover of darkness (sunrise is at 7:42 AM) while visibility levels are lower.  For sunrise validation see http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/astronomy.html?n=162&month=10&year=2011&obj=sun&afl=-11&day=1.

4. This perception is attributed to John P. Sullivan, an El Centro Senior Fellow, during discussions on 20 October 2011 concerning the use of symbolic and instrumental violence pertaining to this VBIED ambush.

5. Note—C-4 explosives were utilized via cell phone detonation. For more information pertaining to that incident see John P. Sullivan, “Explosive Escalation?  Reflections on the Car Bombing in Ciudad Juarez.” Small Wars Journal. 21 July 2010, http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/explosive-escalation.

6. David Kuhn and Robert Bunker, “Mexican Cartel Tactical Notes: No 4. Cartel Military Weapons Cache Discovered Near Fronton, Texas.” Small Wars Journal. 15 October 2011, http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/mexican-cartel-tactical-note-4.

 

24 October SWJ Roundup

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 4:02am

US Naval Institute Daily - USNI

Real Clear World - RCP

Iraq

Key General Calls Iraq Pullout Plan a ‘Disaster’ - WT

Obama Administration Defends Troop Withdrawal - VOA

GOP Contenders Lambast US Troop Withdrawal - ABC

Critics Label Obama's Iraq Plan a Retreat - USAT

Republicans Take Obama to Task over Withdrawal - SMH

Senator McCain: Troops Could Have Stayed in Iraq - Politico

US Withdrawal Plans Draw Suspicion, Fear in Iraq - WSJ

Clinton Warns Iran Not to 'Miscalculate' US Resolve - WP

US Training of Iraq Police Scrutinized - WP

Review Slams US Training of Iraqi Police - AP

Iraq Can Deal With Iran-Backed Militants - Reuters

Obama's Iraq Failure - WT opinion

 

Afghanistan

Karzai Says Afghanistan Would Back Pakistan in a Conflict - NYT

Afghanistan Would Back Pakistan in War with US - TT

Karzai: Afghan Backs Pakistan if US Attacks It - AP

US Could Send More Supplies Through Uzbekistan - AFP

Afghan Interior Minister Survives Assassination Attempt - VOA

Afghan Interior Minister Escapes Bomb Bid - BBC

NATO Kills Militants in Afghan Airstrike - AP

Beginning of a Karzai Charm Offensive - PDT editorial

 

Pakistan

US Talks Up Pakistan Role in Afghan Peace Talks - Reuters

 

Libya

Libya Declares Liberation From 42-Year Gadhafi Rule - VOA

Top Libyan Official Vows a New and More Pious State - NYT

Libya Liberated with an Islamic Tone - WP

Libya's New Leaders Declare Nation 'Liberated' - LAT

New Leaders Declare Libya Freed - BBC

New Leaders Declare Libya Liberated - SMH

Libyan Transitional Government Declares Liberation - G&M

Libyans Flock to See Qaddafi, for Proof, Closure - CSM

Cracks Showing in Libyan Opposition - USAT

Libya Declared Free, but Gadhafi Death Questioned - AP

Gaddafi Unburied as Libya Declares 'Liberation' - Reuters

Obama Congratulates Libyans on Their Liberation Day - AFPS

BBC: Moussa Koussa Allegedly Oversaw Torture - AP

Gaddafi's Will: Chose Confrontation as Badge of Honor - TG

Gaddafi's Son Shown Speaking With Libya Captors - Reuters

 

Tunisia

Huge Turnout in Tunisia's First Democratic Polls - VOA

As Other Arab Nations Watch, Tunisia Casts Historic Vote - NYT

Giddy Voters Cast Ballots in Tunisia - WP

Tunisia Votes in First Elections Since Uprising - LAT

Tunisians Vote in Landmark Poll - BBC

Tunisia: Smiles, Pride as Historic Day Goes Smoothly - CSM

Tunisians Turn Out in Force for First Free Vote - AP

Huge Turnout in Tunisia's Arab Spring Election - Reuters

Tunisia Counts Votes in Key Poll - BBC

Facts and Figures About Tunisia, Voting Sunday - AP

 

Syria

EU Leaders Threaten Syria with More Sanctions - VOA

Syria's Assad Replaces 2 Governors in Protest Hubs - VOA

Syrian Forces Kill 2; Provincial Heads Replaced - AP

US Sen. McCain: Could it be Time to Intervene in Syria? - LAT

Senator McCain Talks Military Options in Syria - AP

McCain Raises Prospect of Military Option in Syria - AFP

 

Yemen

Twelve Killed in Yemeni Violence - BBC

Three Killed in Yemen Violence - Reuters

 

Middle East / North Africa

Tony Blair: Arab Spring May Endanger Mideast Peace - Reuters

Palestinian Bid to Join UNESCO Could Imperil US Funds - NYT

US Leaders Express Sympathy at Saudi Crown Prince’s Passing - AFPS

Potential New Saudi Crown Prince Hard-Line but Pragmatic - NYT

Saudi King Prepares Key Appointments After Heir Dies - Reuters

Morocco Activists Call for Election Boycott - AP

Moroccans Protest Polls, Violence in the Capital - Reuters

European Aid Workers Kidnapped in Algeria - BBC

3 Aid Workers Kidnapped From Camp in Algeria - AP

Islamists a Legitimate Political Force, Like it or Not - LAT opinion

Confronting the Threat from Iran - WT opinion

 

US Department of Defense

Panetta’s Pentagon Skips the Blank Check - NYT

War's Remote-control Future - CSM

ROTC Programs Return to Ivy League Universities  - AP

 

United States

Weak Economy Forces Cuts, Squeezes Police Departments - USAT

Laser Attacks on Airline Cockpits Continue - USAT

Clinton Hails Obama's 'Smart' Leadership - FOX

Rice Lifts Lid on Heated Clashes with Cheney - SMH

Colby’s Son Makes a Movie About the Spymaster - WP

 

World

Population Growth Taxing Resources - WP

Seven Billion - NYT opinion

 

Africa

Other Nations Join Somalia Fight, Kenya Says - NYT

Rebel Base Struck in S. Somalia, Kenya Troops Advance - Reuters

Kenya Bombs Shebab Targets in Somalia - AFP

Thousands of Somalis Flee Area Fearing Fighting - AP

Grenade Attack on Kenya Nightclub - BBC

Suspected Grenade Blast in Kenya Wounds 13 - AP

Delays Threaten Elections in Democratic Republic of Congo - VOA

 

Americas

Mexican Drug War Allows Cultivation to Flourish - WP

Argentina's Kirchner Easily Reelected President - LAT

Argentine President Wins Landslide Re-election - AP

Argentine President Strolls to Re-election Win - Reuters

Cubans Optimistic about Economic Reforms - LAT

 

Asia Pacific

US to Keep Strong Presence in Pacific, Panetta Says - NYT

US to Strengthen Presence in the Pacific, Panetta Says - S&S

Panetta Addresses Southeast Asian Defense Ministers - AFPS

Panetta Praises China for Response to Taiwan Arms Sale - VOA

Panetta: US-Indonesia Security Partnership Expanding - AFPS

US-North Korea Talks Gear Up in Geneva - AP

Chinese Leader Urges North Korea to Better US Ties - AP

Japan: Military Data Possibly Stolen in Mitsubishi Hacking - Reuters

China Jails Two for Leaking Economic Data - BBC

US, Filipino Marines Hold Drill Near Disputed Area - AP

Flooding Devastates Thailand, Burma - VOA

Thailand: Bangkok Governor Warns Worst of Flooding to Come - VOA

Thai Officials Give Conflicting Flood Warnings - Bloomberg

US Envoy to Burma Arrives for Second Visit - AP

Changing Burma - WP editorial

 

Europe

Europe Mulls Changes to EU Treaty - BBC

Euro Zone Looks Abroad to Get Support for Bailout - NYT

No Deal Yet on Euro Crisis as the Danger Grows - AP

Sarkozy Yields on ECB Crisis Role, Pressure on Italy - Reuters

Italy to Call Monday Cabinet Meeting on Growth - Reuters

Hollande Extends Lead in French President Race - Reuters

Moderates Stall Rise of Swiss Nationalists - AP

Tens of Thousands Rally Against Hungarian Gov’t - Reuters

Strong Quake Rocks Eastern Turkey - NYT

More than 200 Killed in Turkey Quake - WP

Frantic Search after Turkey Quake - BBC

Death Toll Could Soar in Turkey Quake - LAT

Turkey Declines Israeli Aid Offer - Reuters

 

South Asia

Indian Helicopter Strays into Pakistan-controlled Kashmir - LAT

India and Pakistan Sidestep a Crisis - NYT

Pakistan Detains Indian Air Crew - BBC

General Jack Keane on Iraq Troop Withdrawal

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 3:39am

Key General Calls Iraq Pullout Plan a ‘Disaster’ by Rowan Scarborough, Washington Times.

President Obama’s decision to pull all U.S. forces out of Iraq by Dec. 31 is an “absolute disaster” that puts the burgeoning Arab democracy at risk of an Iranian “strangling,” said an architect of the 2007 troop surge that turned around a losing war…

“I think it’s an absolute disaster,” said Gen. Keane, who advised Gen. David H. Petraeus when he was top Iraq commander. “We won the war in Iraq, and we’re now losing the peace.” …

“We should be staying there to strengthen that democracy, to let them get the kind of political gains they need to get and keep the Iranians away from strangling that country. That should be our objective, and we are walking away from that objective.” …

Years in Iraq change U.S. military’s understanding of war

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 8:02am

Years in Iraq change U.S. military’s understanding of war

by Greg Jaffe, Washington Post

COL Gian Gentile,

I hope we are going to start asking some of the hard questions now.  What have the last eight years really gotten us? What has military force really accomplished in Iraq?

COL (ret.) Douglias Oliviant,

The fundamental truth of the Iraqi settlement is that the sectarian civil war ended — and the Sunni lost,” he wrote recently in a paper for the New America Foundation, a Washington think tank. “Upon realizing this defeat, the Sunni went into damage control mode to reach a settlement.

23 October SWJ Roundup

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 4:59am

US Naval Institute Daily - USNI

Real Clear World - RCP

Iraq

US Scales Back Diplomacy in Iraq, Fiscal and Security Concerns - NYT

Maliki Takes Hard Line on Troop Withdrawal - WSJ

Years in Iraq Change US Military’s Understanding of War - WP

Maliki: Immunity Key Issue in US Withdrawal - VOA

Iraq's Message to US: Go Home - LAT

PM: Iraq Still Seeking US Trainers - Reuters

Iraqis Split Over US Troop Withdrawal - VOA

Conflicted Iraqis Face Future Without US Troops  - AP

Violence Could Escalate after US Troops Leave Iraq - LAT

Clinton Says US Will Still Stand by Iraq - AP

US Urged to Protect Iranian Exiles in Iraq - WP

Correspondents Reflect on the War in Iraq - NYT

Obama Right to Let Iraq Have Its Way - TA opinion

An American Retreat - WS opinion

Intelligence, Policy, and the War in Iraq - FPRI opinion

 

Afghanistan

Karzai: Afghanistan to Back Pakistan in US-Pak War - AP

Karzai: Afghanistan to Back Pakistan if War With US - Reuters

Spy Agency in Kabul Denies Claim of Abuse - NYT

 

Libya

Jubilant Fighters Return to Cradle of Libya’s Revolt - NYT

Almost 7,000 Held Without Charge in Libya - WP

Libya to Declare 'Liberation,' Timetable for Elections - LAT

Libya Leaders Set to Declare Liberation  - CNN

Libya Prepares for Life after Gaddafi - TG

Libya's Future on the Line - WSJ

Gaddafi's Death Puts Focus on Libya's Future - TT

Gadhafi Death Marks End of NATO Mission - VOA

Libya's Liberation Announcement Set For Sunday - VOA

New Light Shed on Gaddafi Death - BBC

Libyan PM 'Wanted Gaddafi Alive' - BBC

Clues to Gaddafi's Death Concealed From Public View - Reuters

Human Rights Groups Demand Investigation of Qaddafi’s Death - FOX

In His Last Days, Qaddafi Wearied of Fugitive’s Life - NYT

New Videos Help Piece Together Qaddafis' Last Minutes - NYT

Can Libya Really Work? - G&M opinion

Libya Can Become the Jewel of Africa - TT opinion

 

Tunisia

Tunisian Citizens Ready to Vote - VOA

Landmark Tunisia Vote Under Way - BBC

Tunisia Votes in First Free Elections - AP

Tunisians Begin Voting in First 'Arab Spring' Vote - Reuters

Home to 1st Arab Spring Revolt Scene of First Vote - WP

Tunisia Vote Stands as Test - WSJ

Tunisia Ready for 'Arab Spring' Election - CNN

Tunisia Vote Could Shape Religion in Public Life - LAT

Tunisia: Arab Spring Faces First Democratic Test - TT

Tunisians Go to Polls Haunted by Ghosts of Old Regime - TG

Tunisian Islamists to Do Well in First 'Arab Spring' Vote - Reuters

Financing Questions Shadow Tunisian Vote - NYT

Enthusiasm Builds for Tunisia's 1st Free Elections - AP

Top Contenders in Tunisia’s Election - WP

Tunisian Parties Taking Part in Elections - AP

Tunisia Vote First Test of Arab Spring - FA opinion

Tunisia's Quiet but Critical Vote - CNN opinion

 

Syria

Syria Using American Software to Censor Internet - WP

Iran Criticizes Killings in Syria - BBC

5 Killed in Syrian Raids - AP

 

Yemen

5 Dead as Clashes Erupt in Yemen's Capital - VOA

From Mosque to MASH Unit in Yemeni Crisis Zone - NYT

Heavy Fighting in Yemen After UN Resolution - Reuters

No Official Comment Yet on Yemen Strike - WP

 

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabian Crown Prince is Dead - VOA

Prince Sultan bin Abdel Aziz of Saudi Arabia Dies - NYT

Heir to Saudi Throne Dies - BBC

Saudi Crown Prince Sultan Dies, Reforms in Doubt - AP

Saudi Succession Talks Abound - WP

Prince’s Death Fuels Debate About Who Will Succeed - TG

US: Death of Saudi Crown Prince Won't Hurt Ties - LAT

Saudi Arabia's King to Hold Historic Vote - TT

 

Middle East / North Africa

Mideast Power Brokers Call for 'Marshall Plan' After Unrest - Reuters

Arab Strongman: With Gadhafi Death, Era Passes - AP

American Who Killed for Iran in 1980 Resurfaces - NYT

Gaza Abductor Says Israeli Soldier Treated Well - AP

The Two Sides of the Arab Spring - TG editorial

Mosque and State - LAT opinion

 

United States

FBI Finds Gangs Expanding, Even to US Military - ABC

Mass. Man Goes to Trial on US Terror Charges - AP

Muslim Groups Back Occupy Wall Street Protesters - VOA

Lawmakers Open to Changes in Military Benefits - AP

Peddling Fear on Terrorism - NYT editorial

Civilian Courts Right Place for Terrorism Trials - LAT editorial

 

World

When Celebrities Perform for the World’s Tyrants - WP opinion

 

Africa

Many in Sub-Saharan Africa Mourn Qaddafi’s Death - NYT

E. African Nations Back Kenyan Offensive in Somalia - VOA

Kenya: Region Backs Operation Against Somali Militants - BBC

Kenya Says Somalia Rebels on the Run - Reuters

US Warns of Terror Threat in Kenya - FOX

US: 'Imminent' Terror Threat in Kenya - CNN

US Embassy Warns of Imminent Threat in Kenya - Reuters

Nigerian Sect Shoots, Kills State-Run TV Cameraman - AP

Sudan: The Man Who Stayed Behind - NYT opinion

Talking Their Way Out of a Population Crisis - NYT opinion

 

Americas

Is Mexico 'Under Siege'? - LAT editorial

Colombia: 10 More Soldiers Killed in Rebel Attack - AP

Venezuela Doctors Reject Hugo Chavez Dying Claim - BBC

Venezuela: Anti-Chavez TV Channel Says Will Challenge Fine - AP

Argentines Prepare to Go to Polls - BBC

Argentine President Looking at Landslide Victory - AP

 

Asia Pacific

Panetta Makes First Asia Trip as Defense Chief - AP

US Territory Offers to Lease Land to China - AFP

Optimism in Check as US, North Korea Set to Talk - Reuters

US, N. Korea to Resume Search for Remains of American Troops - S&S

N. Korea and US Agree on New Search for US War Dead - BBC

Thailand Floods: Crisis 'to Last Four to Six Weeks' - BBC

Thailand Death Toll Hits 356, Floods Could Last Till December - LAT

Thai Flood Situation May Ease Early Next Month - AP

 

Central Asia

Clinton Chides Tajikistan, Uzbekistan - WP

 

Europe

Russia Retaliates Against US, Bans American Officials - WP

'Progress' at Eurozone Debt Talks - BBC

EU Leaders Seek to Shore Up Euro - BBC

Bank’s Collapse in Europe Points to Global Risks - NYT

Spain: Thousands Rally in Bilbao for Basque Autonomy - VOA

New Fears of Germany’s Might - WP

German Police Arrest 2 Suspected Spies - AP

Turkish Forces 'Kill 49 Kurdish Rebels' - BBC

Turkey Says It Killed 49 in Battling Kurd Rebels - NYT

Scotland: Independence 'Roadmap' Unveiled - BBC

Separatist Scottish Leader Ponders Compromise - AP

 

South Asia

285 Indian Girls Shed 'Unwanted' Names - AP

The Most Dangerous Dumb Idea that Will Not Die

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 7:44am

In 1863, in Second Empire Paris, the French Empress Eugenie cornered the Austrian diplomat Richard von Metternich and outlined her proposal for reordering the nations of Europe in what she believed would be a more logical fashion. Under her scheme, the borders of nations and empires would be adjusted to more closely follow the major ethnic and linguistic divisions on the continent. Poland would be reconstituted from those areas of Prussia, Austria, and Russia where Poles were a majority. Prussia would absorb most of the German states; Russia most of the Slavic areas of the Ottoman Empire. Metternich, from an empire that was the antithesis of the ethnically based nation-state, was not inclined to report favorably on the Empress’s plan.[i] Most modern students of diplomacy see Metternich as the consummate statesman and the Empress Eugenie as something of an amateur meddler. Yet the Empress’s ideas for an idealized reordering of national boundaries retain great credence when modern soldiers, statesmen, academics, and interested laymen consider a host of world problems, especially in former colonial areas.

Speakers and writers, from the novice to the professional, when pontificating on the problems of politics and geography in South Asia, the Middle East, or Africa, usually blame the British. After all, the argument goes, the British divided and ruled vast areas of the world, and the post-colonial world has inherited the borders drawn by late nineteenth and early twentieth century British statesmen, and many current problems of Asia and Africa can be traced to these borders. Winston Churchill’s big lunch, in a common anecdote used to demonstrate the arbitrary and callous way borders were drawn, led him to burp that afternoon when drawing the border between what is now Iraq and Syria, causing a strange bump on an otherwise straight border. Critics with a slightly wider perspective blame nineteenth century statesmen in Paris, Brussels, or Vienna, who sat around vague maps while drawing lines that intentionally divided tribes to make them easier for Europeans to rule. The implication is that borders left over from the colonial era are artificial, whereas the borders around European nation-states are natural or logical. The relative prosperity and stability of the West and the comparative instability of many areas of the post colonial world stem from the artificial borders left over from colonial politics. Usually unspoken but implied is that the post colonial areas would be more stable and therefore more prosperous if the borders of those countries were “natural borders,” rather than artificial borders. Hypothetical states such as “Baluchistan” “Kurdistan,” “Moroland,” are spoken of as logical and even inevitable solutions to ethnic tensions in troubled areas of the world.

While European statesmen did divide colonial areas with little or no regard for the ethnicities of the people in those areas, and at times for the specific reason of dividing tribes, inherent in the modern argument is that the nation-state should be formed around an ethnic group, with national borders that encompass rather than divide ethnicities and tribes. The idea goes back to early to mid-nineteenth century European nationalism, specifically to the creation of Italy and Germany as nation-states. Contemporary Europeans saw France, England, Spain, as examples of natural nation-states--states formed around an overwhelmingly dominant ethnic group. To be English, or French, or Spanish, did not mean simply being a subject of the government; it implied cultural, linguistic, dietary, religious, and ancestral links with fellow citizens. The concept was a liberal idea, and directly challenged the basis of monarchies, because it implied that the nation belonged to the members of the ethnic group that resided there, not to the prince who ruled it. Monarchies such as the Austrian Empire were obsolete, because it was a mish-mash of Germans, Slavs, Magyars, and Romanians, not to mention Jews and Muslims, and no ethnic group approached a majority. The Slavs were themselves divided into Czechs, Croats, Slovenians, Slovakians, Serbs, and Bohemians. To make the matter worse, or at least more complex, many of the ethnicities in the Austrian Empire were more numerous outside the Empire, and even dominated other states. The Germans of Austria were a relatively small percentage of all Germans in Europe, while Russia was by far the dominant Slavic state. Thus the Austrian Empire was an anarchism in an age of nationalism, and a reordering of Europe along natural lines would ideally lead to the creation of a host of successor states, some of which would look like the modern states of Slovakia and Croatia, while the areas of the empire ethnically dominated by Germans would join some new state of all the Germans, looking somewhat like Germany did by 1938, after Adolph Hitler had absorbed the rump state of Austria and the Sudetenland.

 This idea of the ethnically-based nation-state has been a powerful and seductive idea. Otto von Bismarck initially feared it, because his loyalty was to the House of Hohenzollern--to the Prussian royal dynasty—and not to some abstract concept of a nation based on an ethnic group. The Prussian kingdom consisted of whatever lands the Hohenzollerns had acquired by conquest, treaty, or marriage. The ethnicity of the inhabitants mattered little. But Bismarck was perceptive enough to see the way history was moving, and rather than be swept aside by nationalism, he mastered it and ensured that the Germany thus created would be a Prussianized Germany, under the House of Hohenzollern.[ii] The idea that the ethnically based nation-state was natural and desirable got its next major boost from U.S. President Woodrow Wilson. Explicit in his Fourteen Points for ending World War I was the idea that Eastern Europe, especially the Balkans and areas then ruled by the Austrian and Ottoman Empires, should be a series of small nation-states based on a dominant ethnic group.[iii] That this concept of the nation was espoused by President Wilson, who represented the ideal of the artificial nation-state, where citizenship is based on birth and or acceptance of basic ideas rather than genetics, remains one of the great enigmas of Wilson’s tortured idealism.

One problem with the idea of the ethnically-based nation-state is that it is a-historical—based on a false understanding of the creation and nature of the nation-states of Western Europe. France is usually held as a model of the natural nation. But France was hardly more natural than the Austro-Hungarian Empire. At the outbreak of the French Revolution in 1789, a minority of subjects of Louis XVI could be described as ethnically French—an ethnicity created over many centuries through a combination of various Germanic, Gallic, and Roman peoples—who were settled over a large oval in northern France centered on Paris. Most subjects of Louis were, and if they thought about it at all, considered themselves to be, Provencial, Breton, Norman, Alsace-Deutch, Flemish, Italian, or a host of smaller identities. The borders of France in 1789 were the result of a millennium of wars and marriages, wars fought and marriages arranged to expand territory, not out of any consideration for the language or culture of the people who lived in those territories. France became French in the century after the Revolution, when the secular public schools and the conscripted army forced, to borrow a phrase from the historian Eugene Weber, “peasants into Frenchmen.[iv]” Spain and England, the other two examples usually given as proto-typical nation-states, are even more artificial. Spain was created in 1469 by the marriage of the king of Aragon, Ferdinand II, and the queen of Castile, Isabella. Spain achieved religious unity by royal proclamation requiring all Jews to convert, leave, or be killed, in 1492, with a similar ban on Muslims added. Yet even after five centuries of political unity, significant sections of the population remain non-“Spanish,” as Catalonians and even more so Basques are quick to point out. That Portugal is a separate state while Catalonia is part of the Spanish state has no more basis in natural borders or ethnicity than any border in the Middle East or Africa. England, to ignore the other parts of the United Kingdom, is a stew of the descendants of various Germanic tribes (Anglos, Saxons, Jutes), Danes, (descended from Viking raiders and settlers) Normans (themselves descended from Viking setters mixed with Gallic people of northwestern France), on top of earlier inhabitants who were what today we call Celtic, plus a smattering of Romans.[v] None of these nation-states, France, Spain, or England was the result of ethnic or tribal borders.

The borders dividing the Western nation-states today are as misaligned with ethnic lines as any in Asia or Africa. Four contemporary sovereign states are demographically dominated by ethnic Germans (Germany, Austria, Switzerland, and Lichtenstein), while Germans form significant minorities in several surrounding nation-states, in some cases in adjacent regions (France, Belgium, Luxemburg), and in other cases in small pockets geographically separated from Germany (Hungary, Russia), not to mention the large populations of ethnic Germans in Canada, the United States, and Argentina. Australia and New Zealand, while ethnically, culturally, and historically, very similar, are separate nations, while half the length of the US-Canadian border is as arbitrary and artificial as any in Africa or the Middle East. The ethnically homogeneous nation-state has seldom been realized; perhaps the closest examples are Iceland and Japan. A side effect Japan’s ethnic unity is the conspicuous exclusion of those minorities that do exist in Japan from the national sense of self. Groups such as the Ainu, decedents of the people who lived in the islands before the Japanese arrived, or the Koreans, some of whom have been in Japan for several generations but are still seen as a foreign presence, and Okinawans, are the most obvious examples.

But even ignoring that few if any nation-states are based on an ethic group, the real danger with the idea that national/political borders should follow ethnic or tribal borders is that such a concept is the basis for ethnically discriminatory policies, ethnic cleansing, and genocide. When the nation is based on a tribe or ethic group, non-members of that dominant group are by definition not part of the nation. Jews prospered in the Austrian Empire, based on the territories ruled by the Habsburgs, while the fate of Jews in the hyper-ethnically based Nazi Germany is well known. The dissolution of Yugoslavia, and specifically the misery in Bosnia-Herzegovina in the 1990s, was at heart over the question of whether Bosnia was a Serb state. If Bosnians were Serbians, then the Croats, Slovenians, and Muslims who lived in Bosnia were not Bosnians. If Bosnians were simply the people who lived within the borders of Bosnia, then ethnicity would not have mattered. The ethnic cleansing of non-Serbs, with its attempted repeat in Kosovo, was the concept of the nation-state organized along ethnic lines taken to its logical and deadly absurdity. History is replete with examples of the horror visited on minorities—ethnic, linguistic, religious—during efforts to create nation-states based on homogeneity. The Khmer Rouge’s slaughter of Viets and mixed populations in eastern Cambodia in the late 1970s, the driving out and killing of Hindus from areas destined to become Pakistan in the late 1940s, to the Rwandan Genocide in 1994, all stemmed from the same insidious idea. Yet again and again, the division of ethnicities and tribes by national boundaries is listed as an underlying cause of unrest, from the tribal areas of Pakistan, to West Africa, where tribes such as the Hausa are split between Nigeria and Niger. But the real problem is the inability of central governments to project power over areas within their borders distant from their capitals—the persistence of ethnic and tribal identity that is stronger than national identity is a symptom, not a cause, of government weakness.[vi]

Despite it faulty assumptions and deadly affects, the idea will not die. In briefings, conference panels, informational lectures, and classrooms, it has become the default argument. The border between India and Pakistan was arbitrarily drawn by the British when they partitioned India; the Baluchs are divided by the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan; the Kurds are split between Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Turkey. Yes they are. And that is simply the way most nation-states are. For Americans to push for the ethnically based nation-state is truly bizarre, for in such a world, Boston’s North End would be part of Italy, and sections of Los Angeles would belong to Laos. National borders drawn for whatever reasons are national borders. The problems that plague so many nations in post-colonial areas stem from the inability of some governments to extend control over all areas nominally under their sovereignty, not from the thwarting of some idealized alignment of borders with ethnic divisions. Yet the non-alignment of national borders with tribal, ethic, or linguistic groups remains part of the introduction for a host of issues and problems. It sounds sophisticated but in practice its implantation has been destructive. It is an idea that needs to be added to the scrap heap of history.



[i] Wellesley, Sir Victor, and Sencourt, Robert, Conversations with Napoleon III (London: Benn, 1934).

[ii] Pflanze, Otto, Bismark and the Development of Germany: The Period of Unification, 1815-1871 (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1963).

[iii] Wilson, Wilson, Speech to Joint Session of Congress, 8 January 1918, “A Program for Peace,” points X, IX, X, XI, XII, XIII.

[iv] Weber, Eugen, Peasants into Frenchmen: The Modernization of Rural France, 1870-1914 (Stanford, CA: Stanford University, 1976).

[v] For a genetic study on the origins of the modern peoples of the British Isles, see Sykes, Bryan, Saxons, Vikings and Celts: The Genetic Roots of Great Britain and Ireland (New York: W.W. Norton and Co., 2006).

[vi] Herbst, Jeffrey, States and Power in Africa: Comparative Lessons in Authority and Control (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2000).

 

22 October SWJ Roundup

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:16am

US Naval Institute Daily - USNI

Real Clear World - RCP

Iraq

Obama: All US Troops Out of Iraq by Year End - VOA

Obama: All U.S. Troops Out of Iraq by Year’s End - AFPS

Obama: All US Troops Home from Iraq by Year's End - S&S

US Troops to Leave Iraq by Year’s End, Obama Says - NYT

All US Troops to Leave Iraq by the End of 2011 - WP

Obama: All US Troops Out of Iraq by 2012 - WT

Obama Announces All US Troops in Iraq Coming Home - LAT

Obama: All US Troops to Leave Iraq - BBC

US to Pull Out of Iraq After Nearly 9 Years of War - Reuters

US Decision to Pull Out of Iraq Follows Failed Talks - LAT

US, Iraq Expected Some American Troops to Stay - NYT

Secretary of Defense Panetta Issues Message on Iraq - AFPS

Panetta: Military's Role to Be Discussed With Iraq - AP

The Political Knowns and Unknowns - WP

For Iran Watchers, Cause for Concern - WSJ

Congress Reacts to Iraq Pullout - WP

Leading Republicans Criticize US Troop Withdrawal - LAT

GOP Field Criticizes Obama on Iraq - WP

End Date for Iraq - NYT editorial

Withdrawal from Iraq - WP opinion

US Pullout Driven By Iraqi Wishes - NJ opinion

Withdrawal Nothing to Brag About - Commentary opinion

 

Afghanistan

Looking to the Children for Guidance in Afghanistan - NYT

ISAF Operations Summary - AFPS

 

Pakistan

Clinton Urges Pakistan to Crack Down on Haqqani Militants - VOA

Clinton Prods Pakistanis Again, Though More Gently - NYT

US Changes Approach to Pressing on Haqqani Network - LAT

US Demands Pakistan Action on Afghan Insurgents - AP

Clinton Confirms US Contact with Haqqani Network - WP

US 'Held Meeting with Haqqanis' - BBC

Clinton Confirms US Outreach to Haqqani Network - AP

Levin: US Prepared to Walk Away from Pakistan - WP

US-Pakistan Tensions Could Harm Regional Security - VOA

 

Libya

Can Libya Really be a 'Model' for Future US Military Action? - CSM

NATO Agrees to Wind Down in Libya over 10 Days - AP

NATO Plans to End Libya Mission at End of October - Reuters

Gaddafi Demise Offers Brief Relief for Stretched NATO - Reuters

Lessons From Libya Show US Still the Key Ally - NYT

Kadafi Slain Against Backdrop of NATO Support - LAT

France, Britain Boost Europe's Image in Libya - AP

Libya’s New Leaders Losing Old Followers - WP

Republicans Push for US Role in Rebuilding Libya - FOX

Gadhafi Burial Delayed - VOA

Libyan Leaders Appear to Differ Over Qaddafi Burial - NYT

In Libya, a Dead Gaddafi Proves Troublesome - WP

US, UN Demand Details on How Qaddafi Died - NYT

Gaddafi Death Transparency Urged - BBC

Spectacle Greets Moammar Kadafi's Corpse - LAT

Gadhafi Put on Display in Shopping Center Freezer - AP

Kadafi Had a 'Staggering' $200 Billion Stashed - LAT

Libya Rejoices at Moammar Kadafi's Death - LAT

Libya Celebrates, Worries About Future After Gadhafi - USAT

Africans Shed Few Tears for Gadhafi - VOA

Officials Confirm US Drone Fired on Gadhafi's Convoy - AP

After Making Capture in Pipe, Displaying Trophies of War - NYT

In Britain, Disquiet Over Grisly Gadhafi Coverage - AP

How a Daring Band Helped Turn the Tide in Tripoli - CSM

What’s Next for Libya? - WP opinion

Is Libya the Next Somalia? - FP opinion

A New Start For Libya - VOA opinion

I Fear What Comes Next in Libya - DM opinion

Iraq Lessons for Libya's New Constitution - CT opinion

Obama's Realism Wins the Day - IHT opinion

Gaddafi was So Last Century - WP opinion

Does it Really Matter if Qaddafi was Executed? - FP opinion

 

Syria

After Qaddafi, New Protests and Hope in Syria - NYT

Syrian Protesters Gain Resolve from Kadafi's Demise - LAT

With Qaddafi's Death, World Attention Turns to Syria - CSM

Gaddafi's Death Emboldens Anti-Assad Protesters in Syria - Reuters

Rights Activists: Syrian Forces Kill 18 Anti-Government Protesters - VOA

At Least 24 Protesters 'Die in Syria Clashes' - BBC

 

Yemen

UN Council Calls For Power Transfer in Yemen - VOA

UN Council Condemns Violence in Yemen - WP

UN Urges Yemen President to Quit - BBC

UN Council Condemns Yemen Violence, Urges Deal - Reuters

UN Calls for Power Transfer in Yemen - AP

 

Iran

Signs of Big Power Divisions Over Iran Nuclear Report - Reuters

Turkey: Iran Must Cooperate Over Plot Allegations - AP

Turkey Casts Doubt on Alleged Iran Plot - Reuters

Ahmadinejad: Iran's Last President? - TD opinion

Confronting the Threat from Iran - WT opinion

Regime Blames Assassination Plot on Enemies - WT opinion

 

Tunisia

Tunisia Elections Face Unexpected Obstacle: Youth Apathy - CSM

Tunisia Rivals Stake Positions in Election Rallies - Reuters

Women Struggle to Run Even in Progressive Tunisia - AP

Main Parties in Tunisia's Landmark Election - Reuters

The Arab Spring's First Democratic Election - WSJ opinion

 

Middle East / North Africa

Gadhafi Death Has Repercussions for Arab Spring - VOA

Gadhafi's Death Energizes Syrian, Yemeni Protests - AP

Gaddafi's Death a Warning to Syrian, Yemeni Leaders - Reuters

Turkey and Iran Target Kurdish Rebels - BBC

Iran, Turkey Pledge Cooperation Against Kurdish Rebels - LAT

Egypt: TV Host Suspends Program in Protest - AP

Israel: A Mitzvah Behind Price of a Soldier’s Freedom - NYT

Israel: In Defense of a Special Relationship - WT opinion

 

US Department of Defense

En Route to Asia, Panetta Focuses on Events in Mideast - S&S

Services Announce Recruiting Numbers For FY 2011 - AFPS

Navy Strikes Again, Fires 20th Commander this Year - S&S

DOD Website Promotes Cultural Awareness Education - AFPS

 

United States

Feds: Gang Membership Up as Crime Alliances Grow - AP

Clinton Visiting Tajikistan, Uzbekistan - AP

When is it Okay to Kill Americans Abroad? - WP editorial

Occupy Wall Street Nothing Like Tahrir Square - TG opinion

Battle of the Borders - NYT opinion

Left's War on Legal Immigration and Voter Integrity - WT opinion

 

United Nations

UN Security Council Elections Head Into Extra Rounds - AP

Pakistan and India Win UN Security Council Seats - BBC

Pakistan, Three Others Elected to UN Security Council - Reuters

 

Africa

Kenya's al-Shabab Crackdown Nets Cleric, 2 Doctors - VOA

African Union Peacekeepers Killed in Somalia Battle - NYT

Kenya Sends More Troops to Somalia, 10 AU Soldiers Killed - Reuters

Kenya Turns to Home in Shabaab Crackdown - Reuters

Islamists in Somalia Strike at African Troops - WSJ

AU Rejects Somalia Bodies 'Stunt' - BBC

US Encourages Participation in Ivory Coast Poll - AP

 

Americas

In Latin America, Dead Leaders Become Icons - WP

Mexican Truck Is First in Delayed NAFTA Program - AP

Colombia's FARC 'Kills 10 Troops' - BBC

10 Colombian Soldiers Killed in Rebel Attack - AP

El Salvador Asking US to Extend Migrant Program - AP

Humala Faces His First Scandal in Peru - Reuters

Argentina's Slumdwellers Explain the Election - AP

Morales Scraps Bolivia Road Plan - BBC

Bolivia's Morales Abandons Amazon Jungle Highway - AP

Growing Cuban Private Sector Spurs Change - Reuters

 

Asia Pacific

China Warns of Bad Effects if US Turns Protectionist - NYT

UN Official Reports Severe Food Shortage in North Korea - VOA

UN Sees No Respite in North Korea Food Crisis - Reuters

N. Korea Needs Food Aid, Not Politics, UN Official Says - AP

What Are US Interests in North Korea? - EAF opinion

Thai PM Invokes Natural Disaster Law as Floods Reach Bangkok - VOA

Thai PM to Take Command of Flood Control Efforts - NYT

Thailand: Bangkok Areas Braced for Floods - BBC

Thailand Counting Cost as Flood Seeps into Bangkok - AP

Burma Flood 'Leaves Dozens Dead' - BBC

UN Legal Chief Wraps Up Visit to Cambodia’s Tribunal - VOA

 

Europe

European Finance Chiefs Meet on Debt Crisis - VOA

Europeans Seek Bold Debt Deal, Despite Differences - NYT

Eurozone Agrees to Greece Rescue Aid - BBC

Halt to ETA Violence Seen as Sincere, For Now - AP

How the Militant ETA Lost Support Among Basques - CSM

 

South Asia

Kashmir to Lift Reviled Security Law - NYT

India Court Cancels Land Takeover - BBC

India Police 'Killed in Ambush' - BBC

Sri Lanka: Court Convicts 5 Tamils of Fundraising for Tigers - AP

This Week at War: Waiting for the Cyberbarbarians

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 8:49pm

In my Foreign Policy column, I discuss why the Pentagon is having so much trouble coming up with a doctrine for cyber warfare. I also discuss why everyone, especially other dictators, is studying Qaddafi's downfall.

Cyberwarfare unleashes confusion on Washington

Last month, while reviewing his career a few days before retirement, former Joint Chiefs Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen discussed what he sees are the two "existential" threats facing the United States. After nuclear weapons, Mullen listed cyberattacks, which, he said, "actually can bring us to our knees." During the Cold War, the United States developed an elaborate deterrence doctrine, backed up by an enormous investment in strategic nuclear weapons. Asked about similar preparation for the cyber threat, Mullen said, "We're a long way from that right now." This week, Air Force Gen. C. Robert Kelher, commander of Strategic Command, the command responsible for the Pentagon's cyber operations, said there still needs to be "a full conversation" about doctrine, rules of engagement, and legal issues regarding the Pentagon's responses to cyberattacks.

While policymakers in Washington converse, a new computer worm called Duqu arrived in Europe. Duqu, apparently a derivative of the Stuxnet worm that briefly crippled Iran's uranium enrichment plant at Natanz, has been quietly gathering intelligence data and documentation on certain industrial control systems. Stuxnet set back Iran's nuclear program by delivering false instructions to the industrial control system at Natanz. Duqu, termed "extremely sophisticated" by the computer security firm Symantec, seems to be performing reconnaissance for a future attack on a discrete industrial control system.

If, as Mullen asserted, a sophisticated cyber attack "can bring us to our knees," why does the U.S. government seem to have such difficulty formulating a doctrine to adequately address the threat? The Pentagon's official cyberstrategy, a brief and vague document unveiled in July, called for better cooperation and training, but apparently failed to give Kelher and his command the guidance and authorities he needed to establish a retaliatory doctrine and cyberwar rules of engagement.

Why is the Pentagon struggling to make progress on an issue that Mullen, Kelher, and others view with such gravity? The simplest explanation may be that the obstacles to establishing deterrence and rules of engagement in cyberspace are formidable and continue to resist policymakers' attempts at a solution.

For example, this week the New York Times revealed that, last March, Obama administration officials considered, then rejected, a proposal to use cyberweapons to attack Libya's air defense system at the beginning of NATO's air campaign. One reason for rejecting this course of action was that the cyber-reconnaissance necessary to prepare the way for the attack would have taken too long while a government armored column was approaching Benghazi; U.S. Navy Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles made much quicker work of Libya's air defense system.

But a more important argument against a cyberattack was the desire to avoid setting a precedent that other adversaries could later exploit against the United States. Similarly, the U.S. government considered hacking Osama bin Laden's bank accounts but refrained because officials feared that such an attack could cause investors to lose faith in the safeguards underpinning the global financial system. The common theme is that the United States, including its military forces, is among the heaviest users of computer networks and thus has the strongest incentive to avoid escalating combat in this domain.

Effective deterrence requires demonstrating a threatening capability that intimidates would-be adversaries. Nuclear weapons tests in the 1950s, not to mention the attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, served this purpose for the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. This week, Kelher hinted at his command's offensive cyberpower. But until demonstrated, it remains hypothetical and likely of little deterrent value, especially against anonymous non-state actors. And for the reasons stated above, such a demonstration seems unlikely.

The "full conversations" on doctrine and rules of engagement that Kelher is waiting for are not likely to occur any time soon. Wanting to avoid escalation in cyberspace, U.S. policymakers are forced into a reactive posture, war-gaming how they would respond to attacks and mitigate their consequences. The difficulty of the cyber issue is one more example of how irrelevant the lessons of the Cold War are to many current problems. Meanwhile Duqu is out there ... somewhere.

Rulers everywhere are studying Qaddafi's demise

Muammar al-Qaddafi's death marks the end of the first phase of Libya's revolution. The leaders of that revolution were united by the goal of toppling Qaddafi and his regime. With that task accomplished, it remains to be seen whether the task of bringing stable governance to Libya will also keep them united. Meanwhile, U.S. and European policymakers will make an assessment of what they learned from their intervention in Libya. But perhaps the most attentive students of Qaddafi's sudden demise will be other authoritarian rulers, who will want to avoid his bloody end.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made a surprise visit to Tripoli the day before Qaddafi was gunned down. Washington naturally wants to take advantage of the opportunity to establish positive relations with a country that was an international pariah during most of Qaddafi's time in power. Who and what the United States will ultimately be dealing with in Tripoli remains in flux; a senior U.S. government official traveling with Clinton noted that some of the militias that fought Qaddafi have not joined the transitional governing structure, such as it is.

Clinton was able to visit Libya's revolutionary leaders in a conquered Tripoli because of NATO's military assistance to the rebels. As I noted when Qaddafi's rule collapsed in August, the campaigns in Kosovo in 1999, Afghanistan in 2001, Iraq in 2003, and Libya in 2011 show that it takes surprisingly little military power to overthrow brittle authoritarian regimes. In three of those cases, air power plus special forces support to local rebels were eventually decisive. The effectiveness of this military model creates a tempting tool for U.S. policymakers.

But these cases also display the now well-known long-term costs that follow the overthrow of fragile dictatorships. For Libya, it is still too early to determine whether the United States and Europe even achieved their original objectives. NATO's intervention in March was sparked by an urgent need to prevent a humanitarian disaster as Qaddafi's armored column approached Benghazi. That particular incident was prevented and Brother Leader was eventually toppled. But Libya's revolutionary leaders now need to avoid an outbreak of tribal and factional fighting to prevent a different, but equally worrisome, humanitarian crisis.

NATO has yet to see whether its campaign in Libya has helped or hurt its security interests. Libya's vast warehouses of weapons, most notably those holding stocks of man-portable surface-to-air missiles which could threaten airliners, have been thoroughly looted. The U.S. government has hired contractors to attempt to repair these breaches, but likely much too late.

The policy alternative would have been to do nothing for the rebels and watch as Qaddafi crushed the rebellion, a course the West seems resigned to in Syria. The Obama administration and European leaders took a gamble that has produced short-term humanitarian benefits and the chance of a new start in Libya. That is something. But it is still early in the game.

Finally, what will other authoritarian leaders learn from Qaddafi's downfall? They will be well-advised to cultivate their relationships with China and Russia, countries which can protect them with vetos at the U.N. Security Council. It was surprising that China and Russia did not veto the Security Council resolution that authorized the Libyan intervention. By contrast, China and Russia quickly shot down in the Security Council a recent attempt to condemn the crackdown in Syria. China similarly protected Sri Lanka from any international interference when it crushed its Tamil rebellion, with awful consequences to the civilian Tamil population.

As the fighters closed in on him, Qaddafi may have lamented his decision in 2003 to turn over his nuclear weapons program to the United States. His chemical weapons stockpile was no deterrent to NATO intervention. But nuclear weapon states like North Korea seem to have achieved a protected status.

U.S. policymakers will have to live with the possibility that intervention in Libya may have enhanced the utility of nuclear weapons and the diplomatic positions of China and Russia. The other side of the ledger is the realization of how frail many authoritarian regimes really are. And how the United States may have a workable military model to use against these regimes if required.