A New War in the Horn of Africa
Between 2020 and 2022, a civil war was fought in Tigray, Ethiopia’s northernmost region, between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and an Ethiopian-Eritrean coalition. In response, the US put an arms embargo on Ethiopia, sanctioned Eritrea’s army and senior officials, and things simmered down.
On September 18th, Washington removed that embargo and those sanctions.
Five days later, the TPLF launched an offensive against neighboring Ethiopian provinces, citing an alleged Ethiopian attack and a desire to topple the prime minister in Addis Ababa, Abiy Ahmed.
Now, the tide seems to have turned on the rebel offense. As of October 8th, Ethiopian forces have captured Mekele, the Tigray regional capital, and advanced north and west toward important towns.
Here’s the catch:
Eritrea has since deployed forces into Ethiopia to support the TPLF, their enemy six years ago. And other regional militias are getting involved, mostly on the side of Ethiopia’s federal forces.
Drones
Ethiopia has stepped up its drone war on the TPLF, which helped beat it back in 2022. Reports suggest it has directed drone strikes on Eritrean forces as well.
Regional Proxies
The United Arab Emirates, which backs the rebel side, the RSF, in neighboring Sudan’s civil war, is a likely supplier of high tech drones for the Ethiopians. Eritrea supports the Sudanese government. Egypt does as well, which has inflamed tensions with Ethiopia.
Things don’t look good in the Horn of Africa.
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For an excellent, detailed review of what’s happening on the ground, check out CriticalThreat’s Africa File. The most recent update is by Liam Karr and Michael DeAngelo.
And here’s a gift link to the Economist’s “A disastrous new war threatens in Africa,” which provides an articulate run-down of how we got here and what it means.
