Small Wars Journal

1/31/23 National Security and Korean News and Commentary

Tue, 01/31/2023 - 9:32am

Access National Security News HERE.

Access Korean News HERE.

National Security News Content:

1. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JANUARY 30, 2023

2. Ukraine Conflict Update - January 2023 | SOF News

3. Ukraine's battlefield success surprised Russia, but US troops who trained Ukrainians saw it coming, National Guard chief says

4. U.S. military poised to secure new access to key Philippine bases

5. What to make of Air Force general’s ‘gut’ feeling war with China is coming in two years

6. What the chances of a war between the US and China actually look like, according to experts

7. ‘It was all for nothing’: Chinese count cost of Xi’s snap decision to let Covid rip

8. Recalibrating Special Operations Risk Tolerance for the Future Fight

9. If China Cracked U.S. Encryption, Why Would It Tell Us?

10. In diplomatic coup, Taiwan president speaks to Czech president-elect

11. China contacts Prague over Czech president-elect speaking to Taiwan president

12. Covid cases explode in Beijing leaving city streets empty and daily life disrupted

13. Denial May Bring War - Punishment May Keep it at Bay

14. A letter to the next US president: Here’s how you can fix our military

15. China’s Indo-Pacific Folly

16. Russia Freed Prisoners to Fight Its War. Here’s How Some Fared.

17. How US Navy SEALs train new special-operations units to make the seas into 'our playground'

18. If ‘Independent’ were a party, it could dominate American politics

19. Opinion | Donald Trump Isn’t the Only One to Blame for the Capitol Riot. I’d Know.

Korean News Content:

1.  Pentagon chief stresses 'unwavering' security commitment to S. Korea, reassures full 'extended deterrence'
2. As NATO reaches out to Asia, China and North Korea warn it's going too far
3. Austin reaffirms U.S. commitment, suggests more F-35 visits
4. North Korea may have tested a solid-fuel rocket engine
5. N. Korea seems to be wary of possible resurgence of COVID-19: Seoul ministry
6. South Korea, US to expand size and content of joint military drills
7. Nuclear envoys of S. Korea, Japan hold consultations on N.K. provocations
8. Arrest looms for accused operators of North Korean spy ring
9. Calls for nuclear buildup a chance to widen debate, experts say
10. NK slams NATO chief's Seoul visit as 'prelude to war'
11. Promise and Perils for the Japan-South Korea-US Trilateral in 2023
12. US House resolution seeks to denounce socialism, N. Korean leaders
13. U.S., South Korea to Step Up Nuclear Deterrence Efforts Against North Korea

Recovering from Urban Disasters, Post One (Post 9 of 14)

Mon, 01/30/2023 - 1:39pm

Recovering from Urban Disasters, Post One (Post 9 of 14)

Russell W. Glenn

The ninth of a series of blog posts on Urban Disasters: Readiness, Response, and Recovery by Russ Glenn.

Recovery 1

Marines and Sailors Receive a Briefing on Disaster Recovery During Navy Week, New Orleans, 2015. Defense Visual Information Service. Public Domain.

With our readying for and responding too urban disasters posts complete, we turn to a half dozen offerings on recovering from these catastrophes. Though a far cry short of the extent of material covered in Come Hell or High Fever: Readying the World’s Megacities for Disaster (January 2023), the fourteen posts (eight done, this being the first of the remaining six) should provide a concise reference for those who might benefit (or help others benefit) in the weeks between now and the book’s release…and, perhaps, thereafter as well.

As has become habit, we start with a listing of the key points presented thus far:

Key Point #1: Preparation for any urban disaster helps to prepare an urban area for catastrophes regardless of cause or type.

Key Point #2:  Urban disasters are more alike than different.

Key Point #3: Rehearsing/exercising plans—even in so simple a form as talking through challenges—is essential.

Key Point #4: Plans must be executable.

Key Point #5: No plan will survive contact with the disaster.

Key Point #6: Information is the currency of success

Key Point #7: Urban residents are key to successful disaster response. It follows that they are key to successful disaster preparation.

Key Point #8: The plagues of bureaucracy, poor delineation of responsibilities, and criminality are remoras on any disaster…except the relationship isn’t symbiotic.

Key Point #9: Look backward to look forward.

Key Point #10: Maintaining or improving post-disaster social infrastructure will often be harder than doing so for an urban area’s physical infrastructure.

Key Point #11: Plan for the end, then the now.

Key Point #12: What happens in urban areas doesn’t stay in urban areas…Las Vegas included.

Key Point #13: Not all is what it seems in a city.

Supporting Key Point #13A: Don’t trust appearances.

Key Point #14: Expect the unexpected.

Key Point #15: Common sense sometimes isn’t common.

Key Point #16: Command, leadership, and management are fundamental to disaster response success.

Key Point #17: Getting the response structure right is vital.

Key Point #18: Leadership is important, but who should lead when?

Key Point #19: Effective communications are essential to effective leadership.

Key Point #20: Data counts

Key Point #21: The hurt is different in an urban disaster

Key Point #22: Urban underground locations can be a boon or deathtrap.

Key Point #23: Transition to recovery began yesterday.

Introduction

Our previous discussions should provide readers with a solid introduction to the challenges present as authorities transition from disaster response to recovery. It is by no means a sharp transition but rather a gradual evolution that will take place across time, space, and functions as conditions demand. This evolution is maybe best thought of as an oozing, intermixed, and blurred movement toward sought-after ends. Nevertheless, it is important to always keep those desired goals in mind, goals that might require adapting over time as conditions themselves evolve. (Recall once again our Key Point #11: “Plan for the end, then the now.”)

So our previous offerings provide an initial idea of the types of challenges ahead, but no list of catastrophes or lifetime of reading can cover the complete scope, depth, character, dynamism, or nuance of tests yet to come. We will start our remaining set of posts with a sampling that provides a sense of this variety in preparation for then contemplating potential insights during urban disaster recovery. This post will provide no key points. Rather, its purpose is to provide readers and practitioners with a variety of examples that give them further understanding regarding the wide range of challenges that lie ahead when addressing urban recovery from disaster.     

One such subtlety is the nature of subterranean spaces in urban areas. The situation with bridges—their roles as transportation features and bearers of pipelines and power cables—is child’s play in comparison. London authorities recovering from WWII’s bombings leaned toward setting priorities in repairing damage to underground infrastructure from the bottom up. This meant frequently starting six meters beneath surface level and dealing with sewerage, telephone and power cables, gas and water mains, and eventually the road surface.[1] Working on this infrastructure layer cake and its demands for various types of expertise is complex even when the repairs are necessary only due to routine issues. Imagine instead having to deal with Tokyo’s sub-ground utilities and other spaces in the aftermath of a massive earthquake as described by Jun Hongo in “Tokyo underground: taking property development to new depths” where he notes,

the Tsukiji-Toranomon Tunnel is buried about 2 meters underground and is separated by just 30 cm—roughly the width of a Japan Times Sunday page—from an underground utility conduit jointly operated by gas, water and telecommunications companies, among others, that runs beneath it. The conduit, meanwhile, is also located 30 cm above the Toei Mita Subway Line.[2]

As for the extent of damage, Hiroshima after the dropping of the atomic bomb on August 6, 1945 serves as something of an extreme example of the extent and type of damage an urban area might have to deal with after a catastrophic disaster. Extreme it might be historically, mankind’s “progress” in terms of weaponry and the exacerbating effects of climate change suggest what was extreme in 1945 might be found less so in coming years. One bomb—small by current standards of weaponry, volcanic eruptions, or cyclones’ power— completely or partially damaged 90 percent of the city’s 76,000 buildings. In the words of one author, “of the 33 [million] square metres of land considered usable before the attack, 40% was reduced to ashes…. With the exception of a handful of concrete buildings, Hiroshima had ceased to exist.”[3]

Recovery

Even given such devastation, however, residents’ resilience and others’ willingness to assist quickly moved them to restore services and treat survivors. City municipal employees numbered roughly one thousand before the attack; eighty would report for duty on August 7th. Bank of Japan’s Hiroshima branch reopened on August 8th though tellers worked roofless in their damaged concrete building, employing umbrellas when necessary and sharing their space with eleven other banks whose properties had been destroyed. Individuals from nearby towns and cities came to the stricken urban area to lend assistance. Their assistance was needed. Reminiscent of Mexico City’s core destruction due to its 1985 earthquake, fourteen of Hiroshima’s sixteen primary hospitals were gone. Two hundred and seventy of those facilities’ 298 doctors were dead as were 1,654 of 1,780 registered nurses. Shantytowns constructed of debris sprouted near the epicenter. What sanitary facilities existed were shared by multiple families. Yet all homes reportedly had power restored by the end of November 1945.

All but destroyed but never ceasing to be a city, debates soon surfaced regarding what to do with its physical remnants: how authorities should address that component of the ongoing recovery. Familiar to any involved in the debates pertaining to New York City’s 9/11 site, portions of the population urged that there be some manner of preserving memory of the losses while others suggested that every modicum of the tragedy be forever removed. The result would be a compromise with construction of a now famous memorial during renewal of the city at large.

Fast-forwarding to January 17, 1995, Japan’s city of Kobe and much of the surrounding area experienced the devastating Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake.[4] Nearly 6,500 died. Some 44,000 were injured. Streets, expressways, rail lines, water/power/gas lines, and communications infrastructure lie twisted, damaged, or otherwise rendered inoperable, combining to hinder rescue, response, and recovery efforts. The after-event population flow in this case was primarily out of the worst-affected areas thanks to the availability of relatives willing to host victims, rental properties, or other forms of temporary housing. The longer-term effect was to hasten the already in-progress trend of shifting population toward Kobe’s eastern side, that closer to Osaka. Resultantly deprived wards suffered a proportional commercial slowing.

Kobe city authorities established a Headquarters for Reconstruction and organized a Committee for Recovery Planning within three weeks. A Kobe recovery plan issued less than three months after the quake focused on six recovery factors: “reconstruction of infrastructure, revitalization of economy, support for small busi­ness, housing recovery, urban planning, and recovery of livelihoods.”[5] Dictates directed severe restrictions on any development in affected areas for two months as officials worked on physical reconstruction plans. The two months was a self-imposed deadline, one that included incorporation of local residents’ concerns and attainment of a consensus. Unsurprisingly, reconstruction was to include new standards of earthquake resistance.

Reinforcing the point that preparing for urban disasters requires more than plans alone, those Kobe communities with active community development activities in place prior to the tremors were able to immediately initiate recovery actions. Neighborhoods were encouraged to form community development councils and work with officials to come up with a recovery plan that was in turn shared with the broader community with a solicitation for comments. Revisions were made and the process repeated until a polished draft plan was ready for submission to the mayor. Residents thereafter participated in aiding their community in recovery as planned.

The process often did not go as smoothly as one might have hoped. Initial plans formed before the general public’s input often met resistance. Over time, however, willingness to participate during further planning iterations rather than merely resisting the original proposal improved. Details mattered, details that might have been overlooked were it not for the public participation. New public housing for low-income residents entered plans. A less obvious need was that to avoid burdening homeowners with double loans. Those with outstanding amounts to pay on their home loans would be taking on an additional loan to rebuild. The amount needed could be inflated by new building standards to improve earthquake resistance. The government stepped up by offering low interest on new financing or providing funds equivalent to outstanding loan interest.

A select review reveals officials’ understanding that urban recovery is not the sum of its parts. Rather, recovery is consequent of an understanding that it is a symbiotic process orchestrating physical infrastructure needs, social concerns, economic considerations, and melding of immediate and long-term objectives. Public housing helped to settle homeless survivors. But that housing often displaced recipients farther from their places of work or previous living communities. Government representatives therefore assigned welfare coordinators to assist in community development. Businesses received local government money to reestablish their enterprises. Condominium financing assisted those who could not rebuild on their original land. A bureaucracy understanding the systems nature or ecosystem character of urban areas did much to aid recovery. One instead taking a compartmented approach—looking at physical infrastructure as separate from that social, for example—would likely have been considerably less effective.

What of situations where dramatic changes in the political system completely alter an urban area’s status? It is a worthy question considering the flood and ebb tides seen during this year’s fighting in Ukraine. Looking back at the tsunami-effect of Europe’s post-WWII political tensions might help us gain a sense of challenges lying ahead. Hamburg suffered significant damage to its ports and other economic infrastructure in addition that social. Physical damage can be repaired, even with a shortage of building materials and labor.[6] But Hamburg’s economic status as a centrally located port on the continent of Europe disappeared with the erection of the Iron Curtain. It was well to the west in what was its former economic sphere;[7] the curtain severed ties to previous markets and suppliers farther east. The Rhine-Ruhr region rose to greater prominence after the 1957 creation of the European Economic Community. Unlike the damage to its physical infrastructure, that to the city’s economic status was not so readily fixable. London too, like Hamburg, had to adjust to a changed geopolitical environment as centers of world power shifted and colonies gained independence.[8]

That is not to say that recovery of physical infrastructure was not without significant challenges even as materials and labor became available. The decisions faced post-WWII might differ from those confronted by urban authorities after an earthquake or other devastation today, but (again as noted with our Key Point #2: “Urban disasters are more alike than different”), there is much to be learned from challenges now nearly eighty years old. What communities (social, economic, or physical) get priority for recovery? In the immediate days after a disaster, survival and treatment of residents will take precedence. Debates will flare very soon thereafter. Do funding and other resources continue to favor resident recovery in the form of a focus on social challenges, or do they instead get reoriented to spur economic recovery locally (e.g., funding the renewal of small businesses) or more broadly (to reestablish the city’s regional or worldwide status and thus renew the influx of money such status provides to an urban area)? Remaining with our example of Hamburg in 1945, one author summed up debates as follows: “The city had to shoulder enormous expenditures to improve the desolate housing situation or to rebuild schools. The port had to compete for resources. Advocates from the port economy argued that ‘Hamburg’s finances so far have not been ruined by spending “too much” on the port,’ but spending too little could seriously hurt its position.”[9]

Most post-disaster recovery undertakings follow some progression along the lines of (1) immediate relief (during which time the focus is on saving the lives of those trapped beneath rubble, urgently in need of medical attention, or otherwise at dire risk); (2) initial recovery (includes getting food and other needs to residents and the initial cleanup of debris among other activities; and (3) rebuilding/reconstruction. The three are sequential to an extent but overlap considerably. As the comments regarding Hamburg suggest, it is when dealing with the consequences after the event that the toughest challenges often present themselves. Interested parties will be numerous, their interests eclectic. The position of what we might call the “Phoenix element” is already clear; their “tear down what remains and begin anew” attitude couldn’t be clearer in the comments of one German bureaucrat viewing the “opportunities” presented by Allied bombing:

Operation Gomorrah, the week-long Allied bombing campaign that leveled Hamburg in July 1943, served [architect Konstanty] Gutschow's purposes. "This act of destruction will be a blessing," the architect said of the horrific fate which had befallen Hamburg and its residents. "The Führer's prophesy that the ruined cities will rise again more resplendent than ever applies doubly to Hamburg," he said, adding: "We won't shed any tears for the vast majority of the destroyed buildings.”[10]

Representing another extreme perspective, an alternative view saw opportunity not in re-creation but rather forwarding a social and political agenda with no little component of self-service:

Squatters, often belonging to far-left clandestine housing communities, developed a pragmatic approach to reconstruction. Having chosen West Berlin as a way to avoid the military service of the Federal Republic of Germany and live an alternative urban ideal, the squatters occupied damaged and abandoned buildings. They developed strategies to make them livable and political narratives to contest the urban strategies of the administration. Their idea of reconstruction throughout the 1960s and 1970s stood in stark contrast to the destructive reconstruction promoted by the administration.[11]

We will conclude this post by looking at a very pragmatic aspect of recovery. Where does all the debris go once war, earthquake, volcanic eruption, hurricane or typhoon, or another catastrophe departs? (Or during a disaster. In 1944 and 1945 Tokyo, women, students, and even boys and girls were recruited to clear firebreaks before and remove debris after bombings. Some 7,000 students so mobilized to tear down structures while clearing firebreaks were killed in Hiroshima when the atomic bomb was dropped on August 6, 1945.)[12] Who moves the millions of tons of destruction? Much didn’t go far in post-WWII Germany. Model airplane buffs enjoy Stuttgart’s Grüner Heiner, a hill made of wartime rubble. Berliners called their many mounds of former factories, houses, shops, and other buildings “rag mountains” ("Monte Klamotte"). One, Teufelsberg ("Devil's Mountain") is the city’s second highest point and was used by the US military as a site for listening devices to monitor transmissions from the other side of The Wall during the Cold War.[13] Those images of Berliners, Londoners, Tokyoites, and others hauling debris away in their carts reflect what was reality. It is locals under varying degrees of guidance who moved much of what was previously their homes or other familiar structures.

How much did they move? In West Germany the rubble was enough to build a wall seven meters high and two meters thick along the western border of the country. That doesn’t include the 30 percent of historic buildings leveled as part of renewal efforts. Reconstruction continued into the 1980s. Only later did regrets for the loss of many vestiges of the past build. Authors Von Romain Leick, Matthias Schreiber, and Hans-Ulrich Stoldt summarized the growing recognition of that loss as follows:

Urban planners are rethinking their ideas, and the radicalism of the early postwar era is being replaced by cautious renovation and, in some cases, rebuilding. A third phase of Germany's renaissance is gathering steam and, paradoxically, it is characterized by a growing nostalgia and yearning for history, tradition, focal points and urban centers that provide orientation and a sense of identity within the metropolitan morass. Historical old cities are more popular than ever…. That initial, chaotic recovery phase after 1945—when the most important goal was just to clear all the rubble away and give people a roof over their heads—was not completely successful from an architectural and city planning point of view. Things had to be done quickly, which rendered them more improvised than thought-out. The desperate demand made mistakes easy to disregard.[14]

Recovery from urban disaster will always be complicated. The extent to which it is a “morass” will depend in part on the extent to which pre-disaster preparations, response decisions, and residents and authorities can agree to cooperate in finding an agreeable balance between preserving the old and introducing new.

Endnotes

[1] Josef W. Konvitz, The Urban Millennium: The City-Building Process from the Early Middle Ages to the Present, Carbondale: Southern Illinois University Press, 1985.

[2] Jun Hongo, “Tokyo underground: taking property development to new depths,” The Japan Times, April 12, 2014, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/life/2014/04/12/lifestyle/tokyo-underground/#.XDp77M9KgWo (accessed January 12, 2019).

[3] Justin McCurry, “Story of cities #24: how Hiroshima rose from the ashes of nuclear destruction,” The Guardian(April 18, 2016), https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/apr/18/story-of-cities-hiroshima-japan-nuclear-destruction (accessed August 10, 2022). Material addressing Hiroshima and its recovery here comes largely from this source.

[4]Michiko Banba and Rajib Shaw, “Postdisaster Urban Recovery: 20 Years of Recovery of Kobe,” in Rajib Shaw, et al., Urban Disasters and Resilience in Asia, Oxford: Butterworth-Heinemann, 2016, p. 227, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-802169-9.00015-X (accessed August 2, 2022). This is the source relied on for material discussing the recovery from this devastating event.

[5] Banba, “Postdisaster Urban Recovery,” p. 230.

[6] David Adams and Peter Larkham, The Everyday Experiences of Reconstruction and Regeneration: From Vision to Reality in Birmingham and Coventry, Milton Park, UK: Routledge, 2019, p. 27.

[7] Christoph Strupp, “The Port of Hamburg in the 1940s and 1950s: Physical Reconstruction and Political Restructuring in the Aftermath of World War II,” Journal of Urban History 47, 2019: pp. 354-372. Our discussion of Hamburg’s challenges relies significantly on this resource.

[8] Strupp, “The Port of Hamburg in the 1940s and 1950s,” p. 359.

[9] Strupp, “The Port of Hamburg in the 1940s and 1950s,” p. 360.

[10] Von Romain Leick, Matthias Schreiber, and Hans-Ulrich Stoldt, “Out of the Ashes: A New Look at Germany’s Postwar Reconstruction,” Der Spiegel, August 10, 2010, https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/out-of-the-ashes-a-new-look-at-germany-s-postwar-reconstruction-a-702856.html (accessed July 21, 2022).

[11] Denis Bocquet, “Reconstruction as a complex process: reflections on post-1945 Berlin,” undated, https://whc.unesco.org/document/175512 (accessed August 2, 2022), p. 9.

[12] Sheldon Garon, “Defending Civilians against Aerial Bombardment: A Comparative/Transnational History of Japanese, German, and British Home Fronts, 1918-1945,” The Asia-Pacific Journal 14, December 1, 2016, https://apjjf.org/2016/23/Garon.html (accessed October 3, 2022).

[13] Material in this chapter draws on Leick, et.al., “Out of the Ashes.”

[14] Leick, et.al., “Out of the Ashes.”

The previous installation of this series “Responding to Urban Disasters, Post Four (Post 8 of 14),” appeared on 26 January 2023.

1/30/23 National Security and Korean News and Commentary

Mon, 01/30/2023 - 9:00am

Access National Security News HERE.

Access Korean News HERE.

National Security News Content:

1. Avoiding a Long War in Ukraine: U.S. Policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
2. New RAND Study Breaks From US Hawks, Warns Against "Protracted Conflict" In Ukraine
3. Is Anybody Telling The American People About The War?
4. Top Armed Services Democrat: US military readiness a ‘huge problem’  
5. Is helping Ukraine reducing US preparedness, security?
6. Zelensky urges allies to send long-range missiles
7. 66,000 war crimes have been reported in Ukraine. It vows to prosecute them all.
8. Pentagon Distances Itself from Minihan Memo Suggesting Possible War with China in 2025
9. House Republican warns of pending conflict with China
10. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JANUARY 29, 2023
11. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo issues frightening warning: CCP has invaded ‘every major’ US university
12. A decade of quiet preparations helped Ukraine turn the tables on Russia's bigger, better-armed military, experts say
13. In first update in a decade, the Pentagon plans for AI’s increased role in warfare
14. Special Operations News Update - Jan 30, 2023 | SOF News
15. Does the West's decision to arm Ukraine with tanks bring it closer to war with Russia?
16. Telling the Truth About Possible War Over Taiwan
17. TikTok’s Chief to Testify Before Congress in March
18. Integrated Deterrence Requires a Unique Intelligence Mindset
19.  Underfunding the US Army undermines deterrence in Taiwan
20. How two former Army Rangers built an engagement ring business
21. Former US Defense Secretary Robert Gates says Putin believes it's his 'destiny' to 'recreate the Russian Empire'
22. How to Get a Breakthrough in Ukraine
23. The Trust Gap: How to Fight Pandemics in a Divided Country
 

Korean News Content:

1. Remembering Otto Warmbier
2. Yoon meets with NATO chief, promises to help Ukrainian people
3.  New evidence declares soldier POW before death in Korean War
4, 7 of 10 S. Koreans support independent development of nuclear weapons: poll
5. Discussing ROK nuclear armament is ‘inappropriate,’ unification minister says
6. ‘S. Korea, US both have roles to play on nuclear deterrence’
7. Accused spies for North Korea likely face imminent arrest
8. [Column] Lessons from North Korea’s commando attack
9. S. Korea, Japan hold working-level consultations on wartime forced labor
10. North Korean UAVs: small intruders, big ambitions?
11. US Defense Officials Not Losing Sight of China, North Korea
12. North Korea slams NATO chief's visit to South Korea as 'prelude' to confrontation, war
13. [Newsmaker] Why is Samsung starting a legal fight against smartphone repair shops in US?14. 
 

 

1/29/23 National Security and Korean News and Commentary

Sun, 01/29/2023 - 10:17am

Access National Security News HERE.

Access Korean News HERE.

National Security News Content:

1. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JANUARY 28, 2023
2. Open-source intelligence is piercing the fog of war in Ukraine
3. U.S. general predicts war with China in 2025, tells officers to get ready
4. A Chinese naval blockade could isolate Taiwan and shock the world
5. Putin Has a Problem: His So-Called Allies Won't Help Fight in Ukraine
6. Women Lead: Ukrainian Women’s Fight for the Future of Ukraine
7. Ukraine says Russia's putting inflatable tanks on the battlefield — but the decoys deflated
8. World War III and IV? Why a U.S.-China War Might Have a Sequel
9. Burning of Qur’an in Stockholm funded by journalist with Kremlin ties
10. Some Western Backers of Ukraine Worry That Time Might Be on Russia’s Side
11. What If The US Army Never Built The M1 Abrams Tank Or M2 Bradley?
12.  Russian TV discusses if economy now "equal" to Iran, North Korea or Cuba
13. Germany was a soft target for Russian spies. That's changing fast.
14. Overmatch secrecy needed as China, Russia surveil US Navy, experts say
15. The World Is Tired Of United States’ Wars – OpEd
16. Women at war: Ukraine's female soldiers dream of freedom, fight for survival
17. West to deliver 321 tanks to Ukraine, says diplomat, as North Korea accuses US of 'crossing the red line'
18. China’s Top Nuclear-Weapons Lab Used American Computer Chips Decades After Ban
 

Korean News Content:

1. US intel: Deterrence against North Korea is working
2. North Korea denies arms dealing with Russia
3. Recently obtained “confidential document” signed off by Kim Jong-un reports on a gruesome incident involving a shock brigade
4. North Koreans forced to clear snow from roads to capital on Lunar New Year
5. ‘Beyond Utopia’ Review: A Badass Pastor Smuggles North Koreans to Freedom in Secret Sundance Doc
6. Japan eyes easing S.Korea export controls as Seoul seeks to improve ties -media
7. Opinion | Women in South Korea Are on Strike Against Being ‘Baby-Making Machines’
8. S. Korea mistakenly fires machine gun near border with N. Korea
9. NATO chief calls for stronger security ties with S. Korea to address China, other global challenges
10. NATO chief stresses 'interconnected' security amid N. Korean support of Russian war efforts
11.  Trilateral maritime exercise (UK, ROK, US)
12. FM Park, NATO chief discuss North Korea, expanding ties
13. What’s behind N.Korean criticism of US’ Ukraine support?
14. NATO to address North Korea-Russia arms trade
15. North denies sending arms to Russia, slams U.S. for 'groundless rumors'

The Global Fragility Act and the Irregular Warfare Center: A Path for Diplomacy, Defense, and Development

Sat, 01/28/2023 - 10:27am

Access the article at the Irregular Warfare Center HERE.

 

January 27, 2023

The Global Fragility Act and the Irregular Warfare Center: A Path for Diplomacy, Defense, and Development

Kevin D. Stringer, PH.D. – Colonel, U.S. Army, Retired
Madison Urban – IWC Analyst

Introduction

Wicked problems litter the security environment. They are opaque challenges, caused by multiple factors, and constantly evolving. These problems can be conceptualized through a myriad of lenses, each of which produces different possible solutions, and any intervention to address the range of solutions becomes part of the ecosystem itself and any negative impact cannot be undone, only mitigated. Such problems can take years to understand and take decades of effort to bring about progress. In an effort to undermine the United States and the current international order, strategic competitors are leveraging statecraft and irregular conflict methods to capitalize on the wicked problems of state fragility and increase their influence, resource access, and bargaining power.

Seeing the enormity of the diverse challenges posed by state fragility and the structural barriers that exist within the U.S. government that can inhibit progress, Congress passed the Global Fragility Act (GFA). The stated strategic priorities of the GFA and the intent to increase coordination with interagency, international, and non-governmental partners intersect directly with the Irregular Warfare Center’s (IWC) mandate to build the Department of Defense’s (DoD) capacity to counter irregular threats in collaboration with key allies and partners. With the recent announcement of Haiti, Libya, Mozambique, Papua New Guinea, and Coastal West Africa (Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Togo) as the pilot countries/region, the opportunity to begin developing creative solutions to wicked problems has arrived.

 

Continued at the IWC website.

11/28/23 National Security and Korean News and Commentary

Sat, 01/28/2023 - 10:23am

Access National Security News HERE.

Access Korean News HERE.

National Security News Content:

1. Perspective | Despite full integration order, women in special ops face many barriers
2. Military Must Recruit More Women, Immigrants for the Future Force, Experts Say
3. The Women of the OSS: On The Pioneering American Spies of WWII
4. The story of General Gerasimov
5. Opinion | Blinken ponders the post-Ukraine-war order
6. Countering China’s Magic Weapon Of Grand Narratives – Analysis
7. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JANUARY 27, 2023
8. As fentanyl boomed, DEA removed Mexico director amid misconduct probe
9. China Doesn’t Want a U.S. Debt Default
10.  Does the All-Volunteer Force Have an Expiration Date?
11. Pence: ‘I take full responsibility’ for classified documents ending up at Indiana home
12. A New Chapter for India-US Defense Ties
13. In Beijing's backyard, U.S. demonstrates its military might
14. If the U.S. can't borrow more money, why not just mint a coin to fund the government?
15. What, where, how: After the Abrams-for-Ukraine announcement, a host of questions
16. Japan gunning for strategic independence from US
17. US to buy new Abrams tanks for Ukraine because military has no spares, Pentagon says
18. Liberal hawks over realist doves in heated Ukraine debate
19. The Global Fragility Act and the Irregular Warfare Center: A Path for Diplomacy, Defense, and Development – Irregular Warfare Center
20. Russia’s Return to Gulag Economics
21. U.S. general warns troops that war with China is possible in two years

Korean News Content:

1. U.S. North Korea Strategy Has Failed: New Approach Needed
2. Yoon calls for raising awareness of N.K. human rights situation
3. U.N. rapporteur for N. Korea human rights to visit S. Korea next week
4. White House highlights cryptocurrency risks, citing N. Korean cyber theft
5. N. Korean leader's sister condemns U.S. provision of tanks to Ukraine
6. S. Korea to seek normalization of relations with N. Korea this year: unification ministry
7. Where Is India in South Korea’s New Indo-Pacific Strategy?
8. Secretary Austin to highlight U.S. commitment to S. Korea during upcoming trip to Seoul: Pentagon
9. The Korean Wave’s Rocky Road in China
10. Two Chinese warplanes entered KADIZ earlier this week: S. Korean military
11. The UN COI at 10 Years: Strategic Priorities & Considerations
12. What does persecution look like in North Korea?
13. North Koreans, already struggling, now contend with cold snap, covid
 

Responding to Urban Disasters, Post Four (Post 8 of 14)

Sat, 01/28/2023 - 3:57am

Responding to Urban Disasters, Post Four (Post 8 of 14)

Russell W. Glenn

The eighth of a series of blog posts on Urban Disasters: Readiness, Response, and Recovery by Russ Glenn.

UndergroundEX

EU Civil Protection Exercise: Unified Response, Waterloo Station, London Underground; 2 March 2016 Photo: EU/ECHO/Jack Taylor (CC BY-ND 2.0)

This concise fourth post pertaining to urban disaster response (and eighth overall out of our eventual fourteen) is the last before we transition to recovery considerations. Key Points covering readying for such calamities and those in the first three response posts are as follows:

Key Point #1: Preparation for any urban disaster helps to prepare an urban area for catastrophes regardless of cause or type.

Key Point #2:  Urban disasters are more alike than different.

Key Point #3: Rehearsing/exercising plans—even in so simple a form as talking through challenges—is essential.

Key Point #4: Plans must be executable.

Key Point #5: No plan will survive contact with the disaster.

Key Point #6: Information is the currency of success

Key Point #7: Urban residents are key to successful disaster response. It follows that they are key to successful disaster preparation.

Key Point #8: The plagues of bureaucracy, poor delineation of responsibilities, and criminality are remoras on any disaster…except the relationship isn’t symbiotic.

Key Point #9: Look backward to look forward.

Key Point #10: Maintaining or improving post-disaster social infrastructure will often be harder than doing so for an urban area’s physical infrastructure.

Key Point #11: Plan for the end, then the now.

Key Point #12: What happens in urban areas doesn’t stay in urban areas…Las Vegas included.

Key Point #13: Not all is what it seems in a city.

Supporting Key Point #13A: Don’t trust appearances.

Key Point #14: Expect the unexpected.

Key Point #15: Common sense sometimes isn’t common.

Key Point #16: Command, leadership, and management are fundamental to disaster response success.

Key Point #17: Getting the response structure right is vital.

Key Point #18: Leadership is important, but who should lead when?

Key Point #19: Effective communications are essential to effective leadership.

Key Point #20: Data counts

As those who have responded to both urban and rural disasters are likely aware, the types of injuries (and wounds when the catastrophe involves combat) can differ in the former environment. That brings us to our twenty-first key point:

Key Point #21: The hurt is different in an urban disaster

Crush and thoracic (chest) injuries are more common due to building collapse. Disease spreads more readily in the densely populated environment. Overpressure injuries threaten when war visits. These can be due to weapons specifically designed to create excessive pressures to collapse buildings or kill as the thermobaric munitions release fuel in aerosol form that is then ignited it to crush anything beneath. Overpressure can also be the result of too-close proximity to large calibre weapons fired in tight spaces such as artillery operating within a walled courtyard. These overpressure injuries can be hard to detect. The sufferer may feel fine in their immediate aftermath and externally seem uninjured. Barring savvy medical types, the resulting injury to internal organs can go unnoticed until treatment is too late. Introducing intravenous fluids or transporting by helicopter can worsen patient conditions if they have suffered lung damage (the second due to changing atmospheric pressures as altitude changes). Different skill sets and equipment therefore need to be on hand (or perhaps in different ratios to other capabilities) than would elsewhere be the case when the environment is an urban one. These can include the types of surgical specialists and equipment providing ventilation support.

Key Point #22: Urban underground locations can be a boon or deathtrap.

Tokyo has roughly 63,000 underground areas. Subterranean paths, subway systems, and below ground shopping complexes account for 40 percent of the total.[1] Regardless of the urban area in question, putting backup generators, circuit breakers, computers, and other assets in basements or where they are otherwise exposed to flooding risks losing these vital functions. Flooding is not the only risk. Whether due to industrial accident or employment of chemical weapons during war, heavier-than-air gases obviously seek out such lower spaces no less than does water, making them dangerous—perhaps fatal—for occupants. Buildings weakened by earthquakes, combat’s violence, flood undermining, or otherwise likewise make their underground cavities a dubious choice regardless of use. On the other hand, those caverns, lower parking levels, or subterranean shopping areas provide shelter from view; protection from much of weather’s vagaries; shielding from many types of enemy fire or bombs; potential storage locations; and possible makeshift medical, maintenance, parking, assembly, or emergency operations facilities among other roles. This attractiveness means that authorities should consider prioritizing their possible uses when dangers from flooding or other threats do not exist or risks are deemed acceptable (if such consideration is not already part of pre-disaster plans).

Key Point #23: Transition to recovery began yesterday.

What you do—what you decide to do—today will be felt months and years after disaster calls on an urban area. There is thus a need to “look long” in time when making decisions during a response no less than when conducting preliminary planning. This attitude underlies our key point #11 (“Plan for the end, then the now”) as well as reminding us to consider how decisions, actions on the ground, and existing missions and intents might influence standing plans or themselves require adaptation.

The below, written by a British Army officer serving in the southeast Iraqi city of Basra during Operation Iraqi Freedom, provides an example of the costs of not considering the longer term, in this case when addressing immediate power generation needs. It is representative of many similar decisions made by various external parties during operations in that country and Afghanistan during the early years of the 21st century:

The key question was how to co-ordinate its reconstruction in a way that was practical, sustainable, and fitted in with the needs of the economy…. For example, the military installed or repaired several diesel generators in Basra. This was a short-term engineering solution-what the military called a “Quick Impact Project.” Yet these projects were ultimately unsustainable, because Iraq was a net importer of diesel and the local director generals understandably didn’t want to spend precious operating budgets on expensive diesel fuel.[2]

Past lessons, some from urban contingencies, others not, once again demonstrate the wisdom in looking over our shoulders as we plan for, respond to, and consider the consequences of decisions related to urban disasters. For example, studies have concluded that charging even a small amount rather than giving away something for free often leads to better use of the resource received. Recipients rightly feel they have invested in the item or service, thereby giving it concrete value. Poorly thought-out aid can instead have a variety of unintended—often negative—consequences. Providing rebuilding funds even though original locations are in vulnerable areas reinforces views that it is okay to risk repeat events (decisions that will be increasingly costly as climate change continues to make its impact known).[3] The form of aid can also influence perceptions. When the state of a local economy and availability of essentials allow, many NGOs prefer providing cash rather than delivering food, diapers, medicines, and other forms of assistance. First, cash can be spent on items or services thought most needed by the recipient whereas other forms of aid risk not meeting needs or doing so less effectively. Cash delivery (or its equivalent) also tends to be cheaper and less logistically demanding. A US government estimate figures transport and other costs consume up to 65 percent of emergency food assistance. The same study concluded that almost 20 percent more people can get aid when it comes in the form of cash.[4] Arguably even better: funds in the form of cash cards rather than hard currency. Requiring a password to use and reducing the recipient’s risk of loss due to theft, the cards can be remotely topped up after designated periods, reinforcing the need to demonstrate discipline in spending. Monitoring expenditures can also help in reducing fraud or other forms of misuse. For example, distribution of cards to local NGO or government personnel only to find expenditures are less reflective of locals’ needs than those aid providers’ wants allows issuers to take actions reducing corruption. More sophisticated monitoring of expenditures could help identify a population’s recipients who need assistance in balancing dietary intake or, conceivably, provide early warning of essentials that might come to be in short supply due to high card-funded demand.

Endnotes

[1] Jun Hongo, “Tokyo underground: taking property development to new depths,” The Japan Times, April 12, 2014, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/life/2014/04/12/lifestyle/tokyo-underground/#.XDp77M9KgWo (accessed January 12, 2019).

[2] Andrew Alderson, Bankrolling Basra: The incredible story of a part-time soldier, $1 BILLION and the collapse of Iraq, London: Robinson, 2007, p. 66.

[3] Abbas Jha, et al., “Five Feet High and Rising: Cities and Flooding in the 21st Century,” Policy Research Working Paper 5648, The World Bank, May 2011: p. 30, https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/612141468176682794/pdf/WPS5648.pdf.

[4] “Free exchange: Hard-nosed compassion,” The Economist 416, September 26, 2015, p. 70.

The previous installation of this series “Responding to Urban Disasters, Post Three (Post 7 of 14),” appeared on 26 January 2023.

Come Hell or High Fever: Readying the World's Megacities for Disaster

Fri, 01/27/2023 - 6:03pm

Come Hell or High Fever: Readying the World's Megacities for Disaster by long-time Small Wars Journal contributor Dr. Russell W. Glenn has been released. The text is available for free download at The Australian National University/ANU Press and is also available in paper at Amazon.

Glenn

Reviews:

"Nations appear and fall, but cities endure and rediscover how to succeed. In this meticulously defined and researched book, Glenn presents ideas for minimising suffering during urban catastrophes. His urgency identifies risks held in urban areas by 3.5 billion people. These people are many of us: as urban populations occupying 3 per cent of our planet’s land area, drawing water from 41 per cent of the world’s ground surface, consuming 60 to 80 per cent of global energy and achieving 80 per cent of the world’s economic productivity. For Glenn, our resilience—through diversity in preparation, survival and recovery—includes comprehensive approaches that are sustained in duration, orchestrated in bringing all necessary capabilities to bear, layered in approach and early in application." — Major General Chris Field, Australian Army

"The time to prepare for the inevitable is now. Dr Glenn has written a book that should be read by all leaders, planners and responders who may be called upon in an urban disaster, whether natural or man-made. Military leaders should give it particular attention, as the human race is increasingly concentrated in its cities. Understanding how to wage war in dense urban terrain is essential, especially if a nation also seeks to hold the moral high ground. The fruits of any victory won among people that fails to consider the lessons in Come Hell or High Fever are likely to be very bitter." — Lieutenant General Sean MacFarland, United States Army (retired)

About the Author:

Dr. Russell W. Glenn is a seasoned urban operations analyst. He served in a range of military roles, as an officer and after his retirement as a civilian. A graduate of the United States Military Academy, he served in the US Army Corps of Engineers, with combat tours in Iraq during Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm, as well as tours at the School of Advanced Military Studies (SAMS). His most recent position with the US Army was Director, Plans and Policy, G-2, at the Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC). He is a well-respected subject matter expert on urban operations and urban warfare and previously contributed to the Small Wars Anthology: Blood and Concrete: 21st Century Conflict in Urban Centers and Megacities.  

Russ is also author of the The Urban Disasters Series: Urban Disasters: Readiness, Response, and Recovery here at the SWJ Blog. 

ANU Press: http://doi.org/10.22459/CHHF.2023 .

Amazonhttps://amzn.to/3WOLKKS.

Source: Russell W. Glenn, Come Hell or High Fever: Readying the World's Megacities for Disaster. Canberra: The Australian National University/ANU Press. DOI: http://doi.org/10.22459/CHHF.2023. ISBN (print): 9781760465537; ISBN (online): 9781760465544. January 2023.

1/27/23 National Security and Korean News and Commentary

Fri, 01/27/2023 - 8:17am

Access National Security News HERE.

Access Korean News HERE.

National Security News Content:

1. TikTok’s New Defense in Washington: Going on the Offense
2. Satellite images hint at scale of Russian mercenary group's losses in Ukraine
3. Wi-Fi signals could prove useful for spies
4. To refill Army stockpiles, multi-year munition buys are 'in the works': Official
5. Chinese Nuclear and Missile Proliferation (CRS Report)
6. Will the U.S. Really Defend Taiwan?
7. Russia calls German tanks in Ukraine a new war against 'Nazi' Germany
8. Kennan's Warning on Ukraine
9. China could shut down our military in a minute if we don't fix the looming rare earths supply crisis
10. Japan’s Strategic Shift Is Significant, but Implementation Hurdles Await
11. New U.S. Base on Guam Is Aimed at Deterring China
12. Marine Corps Activates Sprawling New Base On Highly Strategic Guam
13. Why Do Officials Filch Classified Documents?
14. Ukraine Corruption Scandal Stokes Longstanding Aid Concerns in U.S.
15. A Medal of Honor Recipient's Speech at the Pentagon Is Going Viral on TikTok
16. Biden's promise to send 31 Abrams could take up to a YEAR
17. Could the U.S. Military Run Out of Artillery Ammo Due to Ukraine War?
18. The Army is readying a new directed energy weapon to swat drone swarms out of the sky
19. Wagner Group: Putin's Mercenaries in Ukraine Are Monsters
 

Korean News Content:

1. United Nations Command Military Armistice Commission Special Investigation of the 26 December 2022
2. UNC says both Koreas breached armistice by flying drones in each other's territory
3. Blinken looks forward to any opportunity to engage with S. Korean FM: State Dept.
4. Secretary Austin to highlight U.S. commitment to S. Korea during upcoming trip to Seoul: Pentagon
5. N. Korea likely to continue provocations, threats in 2023: U.S. intelligence official
6. North Korea Mines New Revenue Sources in Its Trade With China
7. Chinese companies keep exporting nuclear and missile items to N. Korea
8.  North Korea’s Chungju Spy Ring in South Korea Exposed
9. Hyesan authorities crack down hard on Chinese cell phone users, including money transfer brokers
10. South Korea’s Economic Security Dilemma
11. S. Korea to support civilian aid to North in hopes of talks
12. Seoul to work with Hanoi to pursue peace on Korean peninsula
13. Unification Ministry seeks to disclose more N. Korean information to public
14. South Korea’s unions cry ‘red scare’ amid North Korea spy claims
15. Report to Congress on North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons and Missile Programs
16. North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons and Missile Programs (CRS Report)
17. America’s Allies Should Consider Going Nuclear
18. No food, a shared blanket and public executions: Growing up in North Korea

1/26/23 National Security and Korean News and Commentary

Thu, 01/26/2023 - 9:57am

Access National Security News HERE.

Access Korean News HERE.

National Security News Content:

1. Russia fires wave of missiles at Ukraine after Kyiv secures tanks
2. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JANUARY 25, 2023
3. DoD Announces Update to DoD Directive 3000.09, 'Autonomy In Weapon Systems'
4. The Siren Song: Technology, JADC2, and the Future of War. (China counters)
5. USSOCOM 2023 Fact Book | SOF News
6. Armed Services committee adds 11 members, quality of life panel
7. Ten Things I Learned by Skimming Thucydides by John Nagl and Matthew Woessner
8. Reconsidering Clausewitz on Friction
9. China's Port Investments Are Raising Security Fears. How to Deal With Them.
10. Why America and China Must Cooperate
11. Sending tanks to Ukraine makes one thing clear: this is now a western war against Russia
12. #Reviewing Reagan’s War Stories
13. How Xi Jinping Used the CCP Constitution to Cement His Power
14. U.S. Representative sponsors resolution calling for formal Taiwan-U.S. ties
15. Understanding the US Designation of the Wagner Group as a Transnational Criminal Organisation
16. What is Putin thinking?
17. China Increasingly Relies on Imported Food. That’s a Problem.
18.  The U.S. Military Is In Decline. Cutting Defense Spending Would Be a Disaster
 

Korean News Content:

1. Kim Jong Un’s 2023 'master plan' is all about weapons, nothing about food
2. Military says it initially regarded N.K. drone intrusion as non-emergency situation
3. Experts: Arming Ukraine Via US Could Worsen South Korea’s Ties with Russia
4. Kim unchained heralds new nuclear war reality
5. Opinion | When Blinken goes to China, he should call its bluff on North Korea
6. Our Indo-Pacific Allies Signal That They Don’t Trust the Biden Administration’s Extended Deterrent
7. Kim Jong Un Has Started Succession Planning, Says Expert: 'Likely To Rule…For The Next 50 Years'
8. S. Korea to increase joint air defense exercises following N. Korean drone incursions
9. Missiles and macroeconomy mark North Korea’s 2022 troubles
10. Yoon to meet NATO chief, US defense secretary next week
11. South Korea’s Yoon ponders whether to ‘go nuclear’
12. North Korean capital Pyongyang on lockdown as COVID spreads through the city
13. N. Korea urges antivirus efforts amid apparent preparations for military parade
14. Top North Korean spy tasked with recruiting union leaders
15. Economic Sanctions During Humanitarian Emergencies: The Case of North Korea
16. North Korea's Top APT Swindled $1B From Crypto Investors in 2022
17. North Korea pushes ahead with military parade training despite virus lockdown