News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Stop dragging the military into election fights

2. Biden Inherits a Challenging Civil-Military Legacy

3. Employee intentionally removed COVID-19 vaccine from fridge, ruining more than 500 doses, hospital says; FBI investigating

4. The Plague Year

5. White House moves to freeze some foreign aid, defying Congress in Trump’s final days

6. How The US Military Is Handling Covid-19 And What We Can Learn From Their Experience

7. Trump Appointee Seeks Lasting Control Over Radio Free Europe, Radio Free Asia

8. Why China Is Winning Against India

9. NYSE to Delist China’s Major Telecommunications Operators

10. Hong Kong’s Political Prisoners

11. Covid-19 Was Consuming India, Until Nearly Everyone Started Wearing Masks

12. What to Know as Troubled Afghan Peace Talks Enter a New Phase

13. Covid has no grand lesson for the world

14. US’ will to fight boils down to its interests (Taiwan)

15. Joe Biden Must Embrace Liberal Nationalism to Lead America Forward

16. What Is Your Moral Plan for 2021?

1. Stop dragging the military into election fights

Washington Examiner · by Mackubin Owens · January 1, 2021

2. Biden Inherits a Challenging Civil-Military Legacy

warontherocks.com · by Jim Golby and Peter D. Feaver· January 1, 2021

Conclusion: "Notwithstanding all of the other urgent priorities vying for his attention, neglect of the civil-military file would likely impose intolerable costs on Biden down the road — a price that would be vividly evident, sooner or later, when an urgent national security crisis takes center stage. The only prudent course is for the Biden team to attend to both policy and process at the same time — to move out quickly on the pandemic and the economy, while also setting the national security establishment on the path to healthier civil-military relations. Problems in the civil-military foundations of an administration must be fixed before a crisis lays bare the rot that may lie just out of view."

3. Employee intentionally removed COVID-19 vaccine from fridge, ruining more than 500 doses, hospital says; FBI investigating

USA Today · by Ricardo Torres

Why this sabotage?  What was his motive?

4. The Plague Year

The New Yorker · by Lawrence Wright · December 28, 2020

A long and depressing read.

5. White House moves to freeze some foreign aid, defying Congress in Trump’s final days

The Washington Post· by Yeganeh Torbati and John Hudson · December 31, 2020

Excerpt: "The Trump administration, which over its four years in office repeatedly tried to cut foreign aid in its formal budgets only to be rebuffed by Congress, has used the rescission process as a tool to make it harder for the State Department and USAID to spend money. Last year, it tried to use the bureaucratic move to cancel up to $4 billion in foreign aid, but scrapped the plan after facing opposition from Republican and Democratic lawmakers."

6. How The US Military Is Handling Covid-19 And What We Can Learn From Their Experience

Forbes · by William A. Haseltine · December 31, 2020

The question is how does the military fight through the pandemic and still be ready to fight tonight?

7. Trump Appointee Seeks Lasting Control Over Radio Free Europe, Radio Free Asia

NPR · by David Folkenflik · December 30, 2020

If this is accurate it truly saddens me.  This is about partisan agendas and not about accomplishing a critical national security mission.

8. Why China Is Winning Against India

Foreign Policy · by Sushant Singh · January 1, 2021

Conclusion: "It would not have been difficult for Beijing to predict New Delhi’s current predicament. For years, the government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been obsessed with hyping minor operations against Pakistan to reap electoral benefits, putting on the back burner the military transformation required to deal with a rising China. With India’s economy now having entered a recession, such a major reform has become an impossibility. There are no easy answers to India’s China problem. Unless there is a dramatic shift in New Delhi’s thinking, its cure of the Ladakh border crisis may end up being worse than the disease—and that’s exactly what Beijing wants."

9. NYSE to Delist China’s Major Telecommunications Operators

WSJ · by Chong Koh Ping· December 31, 2021

Conclusion: "Other U.S. initiatives could also bring more delistings. Last month, Mr. Trump signed legislation that could have Chinese companies kicked off U.S. markets if American regulators can’t inspect their audits within three years. Some Chinese companies, including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and JD.com Inc., have already obtained secondary listings in Hong Kong, which could help blunt the impact of such an action."

10. Hong Kong’s Political Prisoners

WSJ · by The Editorial Board· December 31, 2021

Powerful statement here: "Beijing now considers it a criminal offense to attempt to flee persecution in Hong Kong. This is Soviet or North Korean behavior, and we hope that Joe Biden and his officials will speak plainly against it."

11. Covid-19 Was Consuming India, Until Nearly Everyone Started Wearing Masks

WSJ · by Eric Bellman· December 30, 2021

A lesson from India?

12. What to Know as Troubled Afghan Peace Talks Enter a New Phase

The New York Times · by Najim Rahim, Fahim Abed and Fatima Faizi · January 1, 2021

13.  Covid has no grand lesson for the world

Financial Times · by Janan Ganesh · December 29, 2020

Pandemics do not care about politics.

14. US’ will to fight boils down to its interests (Taiwan)

Taipei Times · by Chang Kuo-tsai

The first great "trinity:" fear, honor and interest.

US’ will to fight boils down to its interests

15. Joe Biden Must Embrace Liberal Nationalism to Lead America Forward

The National Interest · by John J. Mearsheimer · December 29, 2020

Quote: "Otto von Bismarck famously quipped that “God has a special providence for fools, drunkards, and the United States of America.” In this grim situation, Joe Biden (and indeed, all Americans) must hope he was right."

16. What Is Your Moral Plan for 2021?

project-syndicate.org · by Peter Singer & Agata Sagan · December 30, 2020

Some food for thought for all of us to ponder.

---------

“No matter how hard the past, you can always begin again.” 

- Buddha

"The bad news is time flies. The good news is you’re the pilot."

- Michael Altshuler

"Kindness, kindness, kindness. I want to make a New year's prayer, not a resolution. I'm praying for courage." 

- Susan Sontag

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un Sends Letter to All People on New Year

2. Defense chief vows full readiness posture for peninsula peace in New Year's message

3. North Korea Says It Wants Good U.S. Ties in Rare Meeting With Western Lawmaker

4. N.Korea holds New Year's Eve show despite COVID-19 restrictions

5. Why North Korea is not Biden's top priority

6. 22nd Political Bureau Pregames 8th Party Congress

7. Anti-Balloon Launching Laws Are No Threat to South Korean Democracy

8. North Korea's Kim Jong Un marks new year with letter, visit to rulers' tomb

9. UNC says 86 messages delivered to N. Korea through Panmunjom communication line

10. Ruling party chief to seek pardons for 2 imprisoned former presidents

11. N.K. leader sends handwritten New Year greetings to people

12. Moderna to begin delivering COVID-19 vaccine to S. Korea in May

13. Locals Suffer as North Korea Ramps up Security on Chinese Border Ahead of Party Congress

14. Two former U.S. service members, spouses test positive for virus

15. What Kim Jong-un Should Say at Korean Workers' Party Congress

16. Kim Jong Un Keeps Biden Guessing After Skipping New Year Speech

17. North Korean Forestlands Have Rebounded in Recent Years

18. Moon pledges to 'get normal lives back' in new year

1. Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un Sends Letter to All People on New Year

KCNA Watch · January 1, 2021

I guess this is all we are going to get until the 8th Party Congress.  Not much of a  New year's address.

This is the key line: 

“I offer thanks to the people for having invariably trusted and supported our Party even in the difficult times.

An admission of "difficult times" but trust in and support the party.”

2. Defense chief vows full readiness posture for peninsula peace in New Year's message

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · January 1, 2021

Good message from Minister Suh: "maintain a watertight defense in all directions."

But I question the "momentum" from the 2018 CMA - I do not think there is any momentum because north Korea never sincerely embraced it and executed any substantive confidence or trust building measures.

Regarding OPCON transition I recommend making a commitment to achieving the conditions required for the transition.

3. North Korea Says It Wants Good U.S. Ties in Rare Meeting With Western Lawmaker

WSJ · by Timothy W. Martin in Seoul and Laurence Norman· December 31, 2020

A potential diplomatic initiative via Zoom?

Excerpt:  "In the roughly one-hour meeting, the North Korean ambassador repeated a goal of forging a strong relationship with the U.S., so long as Washington's hostile policy to the Kim regime is dropped, the people said. The stance was received positively, one of the people said, as it didn't represent a darkening in Pyongyang's position as President-elect Joe Biden takes office."

We should not forget what the regime demands when it says it wants the US to drop its "hostile policy." It does not want a promise, either verbal or written. It does not want a peace treaty.  What the regime demands is action to end the "hostile policy." It demands an end to the ROK/US alliance, removal of US troops from the peninsula, and an end to extended deterrence and the nuclear umbrella over the ROK and Japan.   Anything less than those actions the regime believes the "hostile policy" remains in effect.  We should also think about why it wants the hostile policy dropped.  It is not solely about the security and survival of the Kim family regime.  It is so it can achieve its objectives to dominate the peninsula under the rule of the guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State because that is the only condition that will ensure the survival of Kim and his regime.

4. N.Korea holds New Year's Eve show despite COVID-19 restrictions

uk.reuters.com · by Josh Smith and Heejung Jung

"Celebrations are us" must be one of the mottos of the regime.  Kim just cannot help himself.

5. Why North Korea is not Biden's top priority

dailynk.com · by Sabrine Donohoe · December 31, 2020

Although I focus on north Korea I do not think it should be President-elect Biden’s top priority. It must have sufficient priority and he needs to have a strong Korea team to manage the problem but it cannot be the top priority.

And we have a lot of work to do with our South Korean and other IndoPacific allies.

6. 22nd Political Bureau Pregames 8th Party Congress

nkleadershipwatch.org

A scorecard for observing the 8th Party Congress.

7. Anti-Balloon Launching Laws Are No Threat to South Korean Democracy

Foreign Policy · by S. Nathan Park · December 31, 2020

I strongly disagree with nearly every argument and point in this essay..  This action by South Korea smacks of Benjamin Franklin's famous quote: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." 

This conclusion  is an insult that I take personally.  I have actually lived on the DMZ north of the Imjin river for 3 years and I know what are the threats to the Korean people in the area.

Conclusion: “When the South Korean public sees U.S. experts on the Korean Peninsula-who are supposed to be well versed on these issues-cavalierly dismiss the concerns of more than 1.1 million residents living near the DMZ, they feel viewed as disposable chess pieces in the game of foreign policy, not as human beings who carry on their lives in a community. The leaflet ban may deserve debate, but it should be a better, more rigorous one, with an eye on the health of the overall alliance.”

8. North Korea's Kim Jong Un marks new year with letter, visit to rulers' tomb

straitstimes.com · January 1, 2021

The reports about the letter are longer than the letter itself.

9. UNC says 86 messages delivered to N. Korea through Panmunjom communication line

m-en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · January 1, 2021

It might be good for Yonhap and the press to remind the Korean people that the Senior Member of the UNC Military Armistice Commission is s ROK 2 star general.

Excerpt:

“It appears that the UNC-controlled communication line at the true village remains operational.”

The press makes it seem like the UNC is somehow some organization disconnected from the ROK military but as I said the senior member of the MAC is a ROK 2 star.

10. Ruling party chief to seek pardons for 2 imprisoned former presidents

m-en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · January 1, 2021

Do it now.  I did not expect to read this.  For Moon's sake it would be nice to break the pattern of some former president's going to jail.  There have been 8 presidents since 1980.  Four have gone to jail.  One other might have been charged but took his own life.

11. N.K. leader sends handwritten New Year greetings to people

m-en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · January 1, 2021

So here is a photo of the handwritten note letter from Kim Jong-un.

12. Moderna to begin delivering COVID-19 vaccine to S. Korea in May

m-en.yna.co.kr · by 장재순 · January 1, 2021

Better late than never I guess.  This is not going to sit well with the Korean people in the South.  Moon will be blamed for this.

13. Locals Suffer as North Korea Ramps up Security on Chinese Border Ahead of Party Congress

rfa.org· by Myunchul Lee

But this is what it is really like for the Korean people living in the north.  I do not think Kim's handwritten New year's letter eases their suffering.

14. Two former U.S. service members, spouses test positive for virus

m-en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · January 1, 2021

Hopefully none of my retired friends who are living in Korea.

15. What Kim Jong-un Should Say at Korean Workers' Party Congress

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · December 31, 2020

I will be glad to write a letter of recommendation for Doug Bandow to become a senior advisor to Kim Jong-un though I fear he would not long survive offering this kind of advice to the regime! (note attempt at humor).

Mr. Bandow at least acknowledges his recommendations have no historical basis:  "Historically Pyongyang would be unlikely to take such steps, but Kim's ambitions require a dramatic break from the status quo. Kim already has abandoned his father and grandfather's isolationist approach. He emphasized the importance of economic development and participated in international diplomacy. His economic reforms, though seemingly moribund, nevertheless went further than anything before him."

Somehow I cannot see Kim Jong-un accepting these recommendations because they are so counter to the nature of the regime and the objectives and strategy for Kim Jong-un to dominate the peninsula.  But perhaps in some alternate universe Kim would implement these recommendations.

16. Kim Jong Un Keeps Biden Guessing After Skipping New Year Speech

newsmax.com · by Jon Herskovitz and Jeong-Ho Lee · January 1, 2021

No guessing necessary.  Just answer these questions:

Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?

In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula?  Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?

17. North Korean Forestlands Have Rebounded in Recent Years

38north.org · by Bruce Songhak Chung · December 31, 2020

I did not expect this.  This is some slightly good news.

Please go to the link to view the imagery.  

18. Moon pledges to 'get normal lives back' in new year

m-en.yna.co.kr · by 장재순 · January 1, 2021

I hope we can all do that soon.  Unfortunately it will be the proverbial "new normal."

------------

"No matter how hard the past, you can always begin again." 

- Buddha

"The bad news is time flies. The good news is you're the pilot."

- Michael Altshuler

"Kindness, kindness, kindness. I want to make a New year's prayer, not a resolution. I'm praying for courage." 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Hicks Is Biden's Pick For Pentagon Deputy; Kahl For Policy

2. The Nashville Bombing and Threats to Critical Infrastructure: We Saw This Coming

3.  Is the military paying troops too much? Yes and no, study finds

4. Biden national security adviser criticizes Obama's foreign policy for not focusing on middle-class Americans

5. Bracing for a possible Iranian-linked attack in Iraq, U.S. officials warn 'the threat streams are very real'

6. Actions taken by Army secretary, Congress after Spc. Vanessa Guillen's death are insufficient

7. US defense officials divided over potential for Iranian attack on eve of grim anniversary

8. 2 Japan-Based Destroyers Conduct Second Taiwan Strait Transit This Month

9. Special Forces doctor awarded for saving lives despite his own injuries following a motorcycle accident

10. Foreign Aid and Why America Still Needs To Exert 'Soft Power'

11. Trump administration declassifies unconfirmed intel on Chinese bounties

12. The U.S. General Who Steered China Right

13. North Korea claims all targets reached in '80-day campaign'

14. Commanding Ideas: Think Tanks as Platforms for Authoritarian Influence

15. Rural Pastors Tend to Flocks Divided and Isolated by Covid-19

16. Death of Merrill's Marauder veteran leaves only seven survivors of the famed WWII unit

17. Give the Rambo who got Ghosn out of Japan a medal

1. Hicks Is Biden's Pick For Pentagon Deputy; Kahl For Policy

Bill Gates?  I wonder if they meant Robert Gates or Bob Gates?

breakingdefense.com · by Colin Clark and Sydney J. Freedberg Jr.  December 30, 2020

2. The Nashville Bombing and Threats to Critical Infrastructure: We Saw This Coming

warontherocks.com · by Audrey Kurth Cronin · December 31, 2020

From one of our leading scholars and experts on terrorism (as well as Thucydides!) 

3. Is the military paying troops too much? Yes and no, study finds

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · December 29, 2020

I know this is hyperbole, but can you pay someone who is signing a blank check for his/her country enough?

4. Biden national security adviser criticizes Obama's foreign policy for not focusing on middle-class Americans

foxnews.com · by Morgan Phillips

Interesting critique:

“He recently told NPR that the Obama administration did not do enough to tie foreign policy to domestic concerns, particularly concerning economic initiatives.

"I believe that the fact that we did not elevate and center middle-class concerns in our foreign policy and national security meant that we were not delivering for the American people as well as we should have, that we can learn from that, and then we can do better as we go forward," he said.

Biden national security adviser criticizes Obama's foreign policy for not focusing on middle-class Americans”

5. Bracing for a possible Iranian-linked attack in Iraq, U.S. officials warn 'the threat streams are very real'

The Washington Post· by Dan Lamothe · December 30, 2020

Time to fasten our seatbelts?

6. Actions taken by Army secretary, Congress after Spc. Vanessa Guillen's death are insufficient

armytimes.com · by Michelle J. Gradnigo · December 30, 2020

We failed a soldier.  There is no greater shame.

7. US defense officials divided over potential for Iranian attack on eve of grim anniversary

CNN · by Jim Sciutto, Ryan Browne, Barbara Starr and Nicole Gaouette· December 31, 2020

8. 2 Japan-Based Destroyers Conduct Second Taiwan Strait Transit This Month

news.usni.org · by Megan Eckstein · December 30, 2020

9. Special Forces doctor awarded for saving lives despite his own injuries following a motorcycle accident

taskandpurpose.com · by Jared Keller · December 30, 2020

Another inspirational story about a great American that will hopefully offset slightly recent tragedies within our ranks.

10.  Foreign Aid and Why America Still Needs To Exert 'Soft Power'

coffeeordie.com · by Carl Forsling · December 29, 2020

Not a popular argument within the meme wars on social media.

11. Trump administration declassifies unconfirmed intel on Chinese bounties

Axios · by Jonathan Swan,Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian

Excerpt: "Why it matters: If this intelligence were to be confirmed, it would represent a dramatic strategic shift for China, and sharply escalate tensions between China and the U.S. If the intelligence does not prove accurate, it raises questions about the motivations of the sources behind it as well as the decision to declassify it."

12. The U.S. General Who Steered China Right

WSJ · by Thomas J. Campanella· December 31, 2020

Some more interesting history.  I guess this is a "whole of society approach."

As an aside I have always wondered why MacArthur did not make the Japanese change from driving on the left to the right.

13. North Korea claims all targets reached in '80-day campaign'

upi.com· by Elizabeth Shim · December 30, 2020

Will Kim admit any failure?  He seemed to in his October 10th speech though he had external blame for the root causes.  Or is the 80 day campaign meant to show improvement and to make up for those failures?  We are waiting patiently for the speeches announcements, and texts from New years and the 8th Party Congress.

14.  Commanding Ideas: Think Tanks as Platforms for Authoritarian Influence

NED · by Nadège Rolland

The 16 page report can be downloaded at the link above.

15. Rural Pastors Tend to Flocks Divided and Isolated by Covid-19

WSJ · by Ian Lovett · December 30, 2020

In Montana, a Lutheran church tries to stay together, despite spotty internet, long distances and fights over face masks

16. Death of Merrill's Marauder veteran leaves only seven survivors of the famed WWII unit

Stars and Stripes· by Wyatt Olson · December 30, 2020

And then there were seven.

17. Give the Rambo who got Ghosn out of Japan a medal

asiatimes.com · by Roger Schreffler · December 30, 2020

Ughhhh...

---------

"The many are more incorruptible than the few; they are like the greater quantity of water which is less easily corrupted than a little."

- Aristotle 

"We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution." 

- Abraham Lincoln

"To think that because those who wield power in society wield in the end that of government, therefore it is of no use to attempt to influence the constitution of the government by acting on opinion, is to forget that opinion is itself one of the greatest active social forces. One person with a belief is a social power equal to ninety-nine who have only interests."

- John Stuart Mill, Considerations on Representative Government

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Expect Missile Testing and Probing From North Korea, Not a Cry For Attention or Help

2. UN Agencies Appeal to China Not to Repatriate Five North Korean Refugees

3. North Korea declares start of "special security period" in Sino-North Korean border region

4. Joint military drill may emerge as hot-button issue for allies (Korea)

5. S. Korea to decide level of virus curbs this week amid no letup in virus resurgence

6. Ex-U.N. chief Ban calls for rectification of ban on sending anti-N. Korea leaflets

7. Unification ministry to scale up financial support for N. Korea aid groups

8. Over 26 pct of N. Korean defectors sent money back home this year: poll

9. Kim Jong Un faces a new year’s moment of truth

10. Local trade official arrested for defying order to earn foreign currency

11. South Korea completes plans for light-aircraft carrier, vertical landing jets

12. North Korean stamps website appears

13. North Korea Claims to Have No Coronavirus. The CDC Disagrees.

14. N. Korea's rare party congress appears imminent as delegates arrive in Pyongyang

15. North Korea military parade spells out HUGE message seen from space ahead of key event

16. North Korean defector chases acting dream in South, finds role as unification advocate

1. Expect Missile Testing and Probing From North Korea, Not a Cry For Attention or Help

The National Interest · by Markus V. Garlauskas · December 30, 2020

From the former NIO for Korea.  I certainly concur that Kim Jong-un will be probing and testing and trying to figure out how to get concessions (e.g., sanctions relief) from the new administration.  The default course of action that is in the DNA of the regime is blackmail diplomacy.  We must expect Kim to use provocations and increased tensions to try to gain political and economic concessions. If that happens we will not be surprised. If it does not happen we will be pleasantly surprised (though I fear if he does not practice blackmail diplomacy immediate surrounding the transition he will eventually revert to it when he does not get what he wants - and the other lesson we should learn is that if we give concessions Kim will deem that a success and continue to double down on blackmail diplomacy.  Concessions will not change Kim's behavior in a positive way.

Conclusion: "Whether or not Kim Jong-un orders a major weapons test early in the Biden Administration’s tenure, North Korea will nevertheless be probing and testing, and probably seeking the right conditions to escalate to testing an ICBM at acceptable risk. It will not be a simple matter to organize international responses that dissuade Pyongyang from escalating further—particularly with all the other urgent issues the new Administration will be facing—but how the Biden Administration responds to North Korea’s probes will likely be crucial to shaping North Korea’s behavior in the next four years."

2. UN Agencies Appeal to China Not to Repatriate Five North Korean Refugees

rfa.org· by Jeongeun Ji and Albert Hong

Again, and we cannot say this enough, China is complicit in north Korean human rights abuses and crimes against humanity.

3. North Korea declares start of "special security period" in Sino-North Korean border region

dailynk.com· by Lee Sang Yong · December 30, 2020

It seems that the populations and resources control measures are more severe and restrictive than at any time in the history of the regime.  I would like to read some analysis from escapees who have experienced border operations.   I fear blow back is coming for the regime. We need to be on our toes.

4. Joint military drill may emerge as hot-button issue for allies

The Korea Times· by Kang Seung-woo · December 31, 2020

"To send an untrained army to war is to throw them away." - Confucius. 

We have worked diligently to support diplomacy and the nuclear negotiations by adjusting ROK/US CFC training using the commander's  "four dials."  We have ended the "named exercises" and emphasized alliance training as Combined Command Post Training (CCPT).   The ROK signed the Comprehensive Military Agreement which consisted of confidence building measures that the ROK faithfully implemented with virtually no reciprocity save for changes in the JSA and the removal of a number of guard posts. During all this time the nKPA remains forward deployed postured for offensive operations, has continued more than 20 short range ballistic and cruise missile and rocket launches and has sustained a military modernization program at the expense of the welfare of the Korean people in the north. On October 10th the regime showed off what may be a new ICBM and new SLBM along with the wide range of modernized conventional military equipment.  And teh ROK has also allowed encouragement on training areas which has prevented sufficient live fire training by US forces in Korea.  Given the north Korean threat and its continued hostile posture toward South Korea and the ROK/US Alliance along with the necessity to continue the OPCON transition process which requires, in part, combined training to reach FOC and then FMC, we must have a renewed emphasis on combined training at the theater level to ensure the readiness of the ROK/US CFC.  Failure to do so will be throwing the ROK/US CFC away.

5. S. Korea to decide level of virus curbs this week amid no letup in virus resurgence

en.yna.co.kr · by 최경애 · December 31, 2020

I fear tough times are ahead for Korea.

6. Ex-U.N. chief Ban calls for rectification of ban on sending anti-N. Korea leaflets

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · December 31, 2020

To borrow an adage from the LBJ era: "If you have lost Ban Ki-moon you have lost the country."

We should all remember these words from Secretary General Ban: "Human rights are not an internal affair but a universal value of humankind. The law has invited criticism from the international community that it is an 'anti-human rights act' that succumbed to North Korea's demands," Ban said in the speech. "I cannot help but feel miserable that our country is facing criticism from home and abroad due to the human rights issue. (South Korea) should rectify it with the right measures," he added, stressing his stint at the U.N. helm from 2007-2016 had focused on promoting human rights around the world."

7. Unification ministry to scale up financial support for N. Korea aid groups

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · December 31, 2020

Yes, this is a good and important step forward but I fear it is too little and too late and will not offset the criticism of the anti-leaflet/anti-human rights Kim Yo Jong law.

8. Over 26 pct of N. Korean defectors sent money back home this year: poll

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · December 31, 2020

If they can get money to their relatives in the north we should be able to exploit that.  Imagine if we could funnel money to "key communicators" in the north and to the right business people operating the markets.  We could get enough money into north Korea and to the right people to really capitalize on the corruption by the regime.  This would be an important line of effort for anyone considering a political warfare /unconventional warfare campaign in the north. 

9. Kim Jong Un faces a new year’s moment of truth

asiatimes.com · by Daniel Sneider · December 30, 2020

And it is bad for Kim it could have catastrophic consequences for those around him.  We had best be closely observing for the indications and warnings for regime instability.

I worry about Kim 's interpretation of how to "show big leadership."

10.  Local trade official arrested for defying order to earn foreign currency

dailynk.com· by Jong So Yong · December 31, 2020

How do you earn foreign currency domestically when the regime is cracking down on all the use of all foreign currency?  Perhaps the regime is demanding officials go out and find the currency among the civilian population.

Excerpt:  "According to the source, he went to the provinces but did nothing, returning empty-handed after staying at a relative’s home. All the while, he complained, “How are we supposed to earn foreign currency domestically?” and “What kind of means do we have?” The authorities were not amused, however, and he was dragged off by the Ministry of State Security."

11. South Korea completes plans for light-aircraft carrier, vertical landing jets

upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim

This should be a very important capability. But the ROK also has to invest in the fundamentals for OPCON transition.  Every dollar spent on these advanced capabilities is a dollar not spent on the necessary C4I, counter fire, and missile defense, capabilities necessary for OPCON transition.

12. North Korean stamps website appears

North Korea Tech · by Martyn William · December 31, 2020

For all my friends who may be philatelists (I do not know who you are!)

13. North Korea Claims to Have No Coronavirus. The CDC Disagrees.

The National Interest · by Stephen Silver · December 30, 2020

Logic says they should have cases.  But the regime has done a good job of controlling the information.

14. N. Korea's rare party congress appears imminent as delegates arrive in Pyongyang

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · December 31, 2020

15. North Korea military parade spells out HUGE message seen from space ahead of key event

Express · by Edward Browne · December 31, 2020

This is the demand from the regime for all Korean people in the north: ‘결사옹위’ – “which means to defend with one’s life.”  It is all about defending Kim Jong-un and the regime with one's life.

16. North Korean defector chases acting dream in South, finds role as unification advocate

entertainment.inquirer.net · by TJ Burgonio · December 29, 2020

----------

"The many are more incorruptible than the few; they are like the greater quantity of water which is less easily corrupted than a little." 

- Aristotle 

“We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution.” 

- Abraham Lincoln

“To think that because those who wield power in society wield in the end that of government, therefore it is of no use to attempt to influence the constitution of the government by acting on opinion, is to forget that opinion is itself one of the greatest active social forces. One person with a belief is a social power equal to ninety-nine who have only interests.”

- John Stuart Mill, Considerations on Representative Government

“Knowledge Wins Episode 4 - Great Power Competition”

Part 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qfjAuUkcg_s

Part 2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QMj59GTClc

Part 3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6GVFPFw0gY

Synopsis: COL Bryan Groves and MAJ Steve Ferenzi from the U.S. Army Special Operations Command (USASOC) G-5 Strategic Planning Division discuss "Great Power Competition” and ARSOF’s role in support of the National Defense Strategy in this three-part series hosted by the U.S. Army John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School.  They describe how USASOC is approaching the simultaneous challenge of executing daily C-VEO operations, contributing to competition against China and Russia below the level of armed conflict, and preparing to support the Army and Joint Force in future Large-Scale Combat Operations. Their discussion offers vignettes to highlight ARSOF’s irregular warfare efforts across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, and examines the utility of C-VEO as a “way” to compete with the Nation’s adversaries.

The Knowledge Wins Podcast is an official publication of the U.S. Army JFK Special Warfare Center and School.

https://mwi.usma.edu/mwi-podcast-proxies-and-american-strategy-in-africa/

From the team at the Irregular Warfare podcast, who interview Maj. Gen. Marcus Hicks, who served as the commander of Special Operations Command Africa from 2017 to 2019, and Dr. Eli Berman, co-editor of the book Proxy Wars: Suppressing Violence through Local Agents.

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. S. Korea to allow troops, citizens working for USFK to get COVID-19 vaccinations

2. N.K. leader helms politburo meeting to prepare for party congress in early January

3. 5 N.K. defectors face forcible repatriation after arrest in China: UN human rights office

4. Experts mixed on North Korean leader's messages in congress

5. KATUSA troops to be first Koreans to get vaccinated

6. North Korea can change - but only if information gets in

7.  How can a divided America hope to build peace on the Korean peninsula?

8. Report: North Korea cracks down on foreign currency transactions

9. US Must Commit to Arms Reduction If It Wants North Korea to Do So

10. Activists in South Korea file petition against anti-leaflet law

11. South Koreans lose faith in promise of improved human rights in the North: survey

12. North Korean soldier defects with weapon and ammo across Sino-North Korean border

13. US-North Korean Dialogue at 'Crossroads,' Analysts Say

14. N. Hamgyong Province intensifies efforts to prevent rice from being taken out of rural towns

15. South Korea: New infections above 1,000 for 2nd day, variant cases rise to 5

16. Why it's getting harder to escape from North Korea

17. Kim Yo Jong set to be second-in-command of N. Korea

18. Moon names new justice minister, mulls Blue House reshuffle

19. 6 countries provide $10 million in food aid to North Korea this year: UN

1. S. Korea to allow troops, citizens working for USFK to get COVID-19 vaccinations

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · December 30, 2020

I would recommend that all members (Korea and US personnel) of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command headquarters as well as all the combined component headquarters such as the Combined Force Air Component Command at Osan AB.  All combined headquarters that work together on a daily basis should be vaccinated.  If you want to be ready to fight tonight then all combined personnel need to be vaccinated because it is the ROK/US CFC that is the command that will "fight tonight."  USFK is simply the force provider to the ROK/US CFC.  It is the ROK/US CFC that is charged by both nations to deter north Korea, defend South Korea, and defeat the nKPA should it attack the South.

2. N.K. leader helms politburo meeting to prepare for party congress in early January

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · December 30, 2020

Early January...What will be the date?  And will Kim make a New Year's Speech?

I cannot wait to read the 'spin" on the "innovative achievements and progress" of the 80 day campaign.

3. 5 N.K. defectors face forcible repatriation after arrest in China: UN human rights office

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · December 30, 2020

China is complicit in north Korean human rights abuses and crimes against humanity.

4. Experts mixed on North Korean leader's messages in congress

The Korea Times · December 30, 2020

Kim will keep us guessing.

5. KATUSA troops to be first Koreans to get vaccinated

The Korea Times · December 30, 2020

We should be vaccinating all members of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command headquarters, ROK and US military personnel, not just KATUSAs assigned to USFK.  (KATUSA - Korean Augmentee to the US Army - a program that dates back to the Korean War).

We also have to have some concern about the message sent by vaccinating KATUSAs. There has long been the perception that KATUSAs come from families of wealth and influence and they use their positions to get their sons assigned as KATUSAs rather than as conscripts in the regular ROK military.  There is the perception that life as a KATUSA is much better than as a regular conscripted ROK soldier.  This has the potential to stoke arguments about class divisions in the ROK military,

6. North Korea can change - but only if information gets in

Financial Times · by Andrei Lankov · December 29, 2020

I recall hearing Andrei speaking at a conference about the importance of information and telling us that he is a success story for VOA, Radio Free Europe and the BBC .  The information from those sources helped him to decide to defect from the Soviet Union.  A key point that he made that always sticks with me is that the information from these sources was trusted.

We should also note that Andrei has experience in north Korea.

7. How can a divided America hope to build peace on the Korean peninsula?

SCMP · by Mark Tokola and Juni Kimn · December 29, 2020

A couple of very  interesting rhetorical questions.

Conclusion:

“What does this mean for ongoing threats such as the one posed by North Korea? From Pyongyang’s perspective, the partisan divide in the US reduces the pressure to negotiate. Kim Jong-un would have reason to doubt whether any US promise or reprimand intended to encourage the elimination of his weapons of mass destruction would be carried through.

And it would not be just North Korea that would doubt our commitments. Regional partners essential to engagement with Pyongyang such as South Korea, China and Japan would also wonder about coordinating with Washington in case they are wrong-footed amid the partisan shift in US foreign policy every four years.

America’s current hyper-partisanship may make it quixotic to hope for a bipartisan foreign policy, even though it would promote our national interest. Maybe the best we can hope for is to choose a few key areas in which both Democratic and Republican parties might engage in their own quiet diplomacy to settle on a common approach before advancing. It would be a start.”

8. Report: North Korea cracks down on foreign currency transactions

upi.com· by Elizabeth Shim · December 28, 2020

This is one of the most important actions taken by the regime to sustain its control over the population and markets.  I believe it will eventually blow back on the regime.

9. US Must Commit to Arms Reduction If It Wants North Korea to Do So

truthout.org · by Hyun Lee · December 28, 2020

One of the most naive OpEds I have read recently.  It is based on a complete misunderstanding of the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime.

10. Activists in South Korea file petition against anti-leaflet law

upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim · December 29, 2020

Can popular support against the law be generated or will it only come from activists which the Moon administration can ignore?

11. South Koreans lose faith in promise of improved human rights in the North: survey

SCMP· by John Power · December 30, 2020

We must never forget that Kim Jong-un fears the Korean people living in the north more than he fears the US and South Korea.

Kim must demy the human rights of the Korean people in order to remain in power.  We can expect no voluntary change from him because to do so puts him at great personal risk.”

12. North Korean soldier defects with weapon and ammo across Sino-North Korean border

dailynk.com · December 30, 2020

Just one?  Acting alone?  It is when we start seeing small units defect we will not the three military chains of control are breaking down.  Note the political officer's conduct (one of the three chains of control).

And there is a lot more to this article (landmines on the border and what appear to be "friendly fire" incidents).

13. US-North Korean Dialogue at 'Crossroads,' Analysts Say

voanews.com · by Jason Strother

Top-down or bottom-up, the onus remains on Kim Jong-un. Does he sincerely want to negotiate?

Key points:

“Stephen Biegun, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State and envoy to denuclearization talks with the north, underscored some of these unfulfilled ambitions in December during what was likely his swan song visit to Seoul.

“You might wonder if I am disappointed that we did not accomplish more over the past two years. I am,” he said during a speech at a local think tank, according to State Department transcripts.

“Despite setbacks, disappointments, and missed opportunities over the past two years, I believe no less today than the day I first took on this responsibility that the vision President Trump and Chairman Kim have shared for the Peninsula is possible, and that we are not done,” he said.

But North Korea is showing no sign that it is ready to resume dialogue with the United States; it has spent much of this year in a self-imposed quarantine, locking down its borders to almost all foreign trade and humanitarian assistance to shield itself from the pandemic. And now faced with change in U.S. leadership, Pyongyang has yet to acknowledge President-elect Joe Biden’s victory in the November polls and the loss of its former negotiating partner in the White House.”

14. N. Hamgyong Province intensifies efforts to prevent rice from being taken out of rural towns

dailynk.com· by Jong So Yong · December 30, 2020

I don't think we can imagine the suffering and desperation among the Korean people living in the north.

15. South Korea: New infections above 1,000 for 2nd day, variant cases rise to 5

en.yna.co.kr · by 최경애 · December 30, 2020

16.  Why it's getting harder to escape from North Korea

BBC · by News

A 7 minute BBC video at the link. Some very useful statistics, anecdotes, and information on escapee operations and the situation in the north.

It is worth the 7 minutes to watch this.

17. Kim Yo Jong set to be second-in-command of N. Korea

donga.com · December 30, 2020

The most dangerous position in north Korea is to be designated the "number 2."  But it will be interesting to see if there is some from the 8th Party Congress that changes the north Korean constitution and party charter to allow Kim Yo-jong to have such a role.

18. Moon names new justice minister, mulls Blue House reshuffle

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Ser Myo-Ja

19. 6 countries provide $10 million in food aid to North Korea this year: UN

The Korea Times · December 30, 2020

Why turn down aid from South Korea through the World Food Program?

I think the simple answer is the Kim family regime wants to deal directly with South Korea and not through the World Food Program or any other international organization.  The regime wants to be able to execute its political warfare strategy against South Korea.  The recent response to the Kim Yo-jong threats and destruction of the Liaison building at Kaesong which resulted in the passage of the new anti leaflet law illustrate the regime's strategy..  Its strategy consists of subversion of the ROK and coercion/extortion and blackmail diplomacy to gain political and economic concessions.  Accepting money from the WFP does not help advance the regime's strategy.

Furthermore, the regime is not interested in aid to the Korean people in the north.  It wants any funds coming to north Korea to go straight to the Kim family regime's  "royal court economy" so that it can use the funds to keep the regime elite satisfied and for the development of its nuclear weapons and missiles.  It will accept aid as it is doing here but it does so reluctantly and in the hopes that it can eventually support its political warfare strategy or at least help maintain some stability within the population.

----------

"I would trade all of my technology for an afternoon with Socrates." 

- Steve Jobs

"She had not spoken false words, but truth can be outraged by silence quite as cruelly as by speech."

- Amelia E. Barr

"Guard against the impostures of pretended patriotism.” 

- George Washington

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. America's rule of law v. China's 'rule by law'

2. Signing of the RCEP and the Future Asian Order

3. Now is not the right time to split NSA and CYBERCOM

4. Pivot to Asia? We've Been Here Before and It Doesn't Work

5. Competition Is What States Make Of It: A US Strategy Toward China - Analysis

6. JBLM colonel accused of beating wife, threatening suicide during police stand-off

7. Fort Drum soldier, teen charged in death of Army corporal

8. Kim Philby: new revelations about spy emerge in secret files

9. Five Books That Explain the World By James Stavridis

10. New Low-Yield Nuclear Warheads That Biden Calls A "Bad Idea" Have All Been Delivered

11. Wuhan coronavirus infections may be 10 times higher than reported, China CDC study finds

12. A NATO In Asia? Not Going to Happen

13. Biden's Incoming National Security Adviser Faults Pentagon's 'Obstruction'

14. Even If It's 'Bonkers,' Poll Finds Many Believe QAnon And Other Conspiracy Theories

15. How Conspiracy Theories Like QAnon May Have Discouraged Postelection Violence

16. Opinion | Trump’s worst pardon is one you haven’t heard about

1. America's rule of law v. China's 'rule by law'

The Hill · by Joseph Bosco · December 29, 2020

Excerpts:

“Congress should consider legislation declaring China’s contemplated new law a nullity and prohibit any U.S. cooperation to “repatriate” Taiwanese citizens to China. It also should revive the Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act (TIPA) and extend its provisions to any Chinese regime actions against individual Taiwanese.

As for America’s own rule-of-law issues, after the fate of the U.S. Senate is decided in Georgia on Jan. 5, Congress should meet its constitutional obligation to certify the 2020 election, restore “domestic tranquility,” and begin repairing America’s status as the world’s leading democracy.

It also should address the need for the federal and state governments to examine their respective roles in generating higher confidence in the 2022 and 2024 elections than was evident in 2020. Achieving greater uniformity in the 50 state systems would be a good place to start.”

2. Signing of the RCEP and the Future Asian Order

thediplomat.com· by Oba Mie · December 30, 2020

Again, one of our biggest strategic mistakes of the 21st Century will be the withdrawal from the TPP.

3. Now is not the right time to split NSA and CYBERCOM

c4isrnet.com · by James Di Pane · December 29, 2020

Excerpts:

"And let’s not forget the timing. Right now, the U.S. government is reeling from a massive breach by suspected Russian hackers with sweeping consequences, making this an inopportune moment for large organizational changes that could hinder cyber operations.

Both the former commander, Adm. Michael Rogers, and current commander, Gen. Paul Nakasone, have expressed caution about ending the arrangement prematurely. Both have said the arrangement works and enables the close relationship between the two organizations.

The two organizations operate under different legal authorities. Cyber Command draws its authorities from Title 10, which governs military forces, and NSA usually operates under Title 50 governing intelligence functions. This mirrors how cyber operations work as well, with the need for close collaboration between intelligence and military operations.”

4. Pivot to Asia? We've Been Here Before and It Doesn't Work

The American Conservative · by Lyle Goldstein · December 30, 2020

As a student of Asian security my bias is for a focus on Asia.  We have been pivoting to Asia since the early Obama administration. But what do we have to show for it?  I am glad we recognize the importance of Asia but as a global power with global interests and global responsibilities we do a disservice to our national security when we try to set these kinds of priorities.  Yes strategy is about prioritization of ways and means but I think we need more depth to our strategy than bumper sticker talking points such as a pivot to Asia. 

5. Competition Is What States Make Of It: A US Strategy Toward China - Analysis

eurasiareview.com · by Kaleb J. Redden · December 30, 2020

This is a strategy tutorial from NDU. "This article provides a U.S. strategy for this challenge."

6. JBLM colonel accused of beating wife, threatening suicide during police stand-off

thenewstribune.com · by Stacia Glenn

Another tragic situation for our Regiment, the Army, and the nation.  At the same time we just had the 7th SFG NCO in the incident in Illinois.  And we have another violent incident involving soldiers from Fort Drum.

7. Fort Drum soldier, teen charged in death of Army corporal

armytimes.com · by The Associated Press · December 29, 2020

Another tragedy.

8. Kim Philby: new revelations about spy emerge in secret files

The Guardian · by Owen Bowcott · December 30, 2020

There is always more to the story.  And history is never final.

9. Five Books That Explain the World By James Stavridis

Bloomberg · by James Stavridis · December 29, 2020

10. New Low-Yield Nuclear Warheads That Biden Calls A "Bad Idea" Have All Been Delivered

thedrive.com · by Joseph Trevithick · December 29, 2020

11. Wuhan coronavirus infections may be 10 times higher than reported, China CDC study finds

foxnews.com · by Alexandria Hein | Fox News

I have not seen Wuhan coronavirus use lately. We should remember that it was the Chinese in January 2020 that first used the names Wuhan pneumonia and Wuhan virus.  It was not a name invented in the US.  Of course immediately following this the Chinese propagandists realized their mistake and worked to change the narrative that brought blame on China.  But now we have the "UK variant" and we have no issue tying the variant to a specific country.

12. A NATO In Asia? Not Going to Happen

The National Interest · by Zhuoran Li · December 29, 2020

Another Marshall Plan, another Goldwater Nichols, and another NATO are probably the three most overused analogies in national security dialogues.  But we are unlikely to see a military organization along the lines of NATO in Asia.  We need the Quad and Quad Plus to develop in accordance with the security conditions and the national identities of the countries in Asia.

13. Biden's Incoming National Security Adviser Faults Pentagon's 'Obstruction'

NPR · by Philip Ewing · December 29, 2020

Again, not a good look.

14. Even If It's 'Bonkers,' Poll Finds Many Believe QAnon And Other Conspiracy Theories

NPR · by Joel Rose · December 30, 2020

Please go to the link to view the data, graphs, and responses to some of the survey questions.

It boggles my mind that so many Americans believe in conspiracy theories and disinformation.  Especially QAnon.

But I guess there are those who follow people Michael Flynn.  He is now apparently hawling QAnon swag.

15. How Conspiracy Theories Like QAnon May Have Discouraged Postelection Violence

Slate · by Amarnath Amarasingam · December 29, 2020

I suppose this is some counterintuitive good news.

The counter to this from the extreme right is that if the election had turned out differently there would have been violence from the extreme left.

16. Opinion | Trump’s worst pardon is one you haven’t heard about

The Washington Post · by Alex Busansky · December 29, 2020

I have no words.

----------------

"I would trade all of my technology for an afternoon with Socrates." 

- Steve Jobs

"She had not spoken false words, but truth can be outraged by silence quite as cruelly as by speech."

- Amelia E. Barr

"Guard against the impostures of pretended patriotism.” 

- George Washington

Full Article: https://warontherocks.com/2020/12/the-marines-and-americas-special-operators-more-collaboration-required/

By Gordon Richmond

A discussion from a U.S. Special Forces Officer at 1st Special Forces Group on future cooperation between SOCOM and the USMC for the Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations concept and how SOCOM can learn from the USMC's Force Design 2030 experience as it orients towards competition with China and Russia. The article also explores the role of relatively junior Marine officers in driving recent discussion and debate.