Join us for the 1st installment in The OSS Society's 2021 "Oh So Social" Conversation Series on January 28th for a discussion between Sec. James Mattis and The Hon. Mike Vickers about leadership and strategy. Click on this link to register for free: https://tinyurl.com/y2bfq9ra
News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. China wages cognitive warfare to topple Taiwan government: report
2. Taiwan and US set for sensitive dialogue - and reveal the timing in advance
3. China as a Composite Land-Sea Power: A Geostrategic Concept Revisited
4. National security adviser, deputy weigh resigning after Wednesday's chaos
5. Trump's deputy national security adviser resigns as other top officials consider quitting over Capitol riot
6. China Uses Capitol Violence to Cast Narrative of U.S. Hypocrisy
7. Asia delights and despairs in Trump’s Capitol siege
8. Fauci sees greater China role in COVID-19 spread, looking back one year later
9. This Is a Coup
10. This is Not a Coup
11. Former SecDef Jim Mattis Denounces Pro-Trump 'Violent Assault' on US Capitol
12. ‘Once You Engage in Political Violence, It Becomes Easier to Do It Again’
13. Biden Plans to Build a Grand Alliance to Counter China. It Won’t Be Easy.
14. U.S. Considers Adding Alibaba, Tencent to China Stock Ban
15. America's Pacific Strategy Needs an Update
16. The World Is Watching Us
17. China's "Unrestricted War" On The United States
18. Pentagon must continue military support to CIA's counterterrorism operations
19. A Cyber Opportunity: Priorities for the First National Cyber Director
20. What is the role of Information Operations in supporting training missions? Or, when is a tweet more than just a tweet?
21. The Two Special Operations Trinities
1. China wages cognitive warfare to topple Taiwan government: report
Newsweek · by John Feng · January 6, 2021
Excerpts:
“Released last week, INDSR's 200-page report makes special mention of China's online cognitive warfare—part of its larger "hybrid warfare"—which it conducts through Taiwan's mainstream media platforms, including popular forums and ubiquitous mobile messaging application LINE.
The aim, the authors say, is to create division and internal conflict, and to change the public's voting behavior in favor of a more preferred candidate. The tactic was taken straight from Russia's cyber operation playbook, according to a report chapter describing Beijing's attempts to influence public opinion and thought.
2. Taiwan and US set for sensitive dialogue - and reveal the timing in advance
scmp.com· by Lawrence Chung
Excerpts:
“It is being held by the outgoing Donald Trump administration before Joe Biden [becomes president this month], meaning the mandate given by the Trump government to the event is limited,” Sung said.
He said the Biden administration could control the scope of the dialogue in future to have flexibility in response to Beijing’s protests about breaching the one-China policy and the three communiques that underpin US-China relations.
Sung said he expected this week’s dialogue to touch on strengthening Taiwan’s regional role in partnership with neighboring countries, in addition to political and military cooperation with the US.”
3. China as a Composite Land-Sea Power: A Geostrategic Concept Revisited
cimsec.org · by Tashi Yoshiara · January 6, 2021
Conclusion: A theme that runs through the Chinese discourse is a clear-eyed sense of the limits on China’s geostrategic choices. Chinese strategists who possess a tragic sensibility about great power politics understand that favorable circumstances are never permanent. They recognize that Beijing must strive to cultivate conditions conducive to its outward orientation and that hostile great powers, especially if they were to coalesce against China, could undo its global plans. As the PLA goes global, it behooves allied policymakers to adopt a similarly tragic worldview and revisit age-old geostrategic dilemmas that will likely prove as nettlesome to China as they have for past aspiring land-sea powers.
4. National security adviser, deputy weigh resigning after Wednesday's chaos
Politico· January 6, 2021
5. Trump's deputy national security adviser resigns as other top officials consider quitting over Capitol riot
CNN · by Kaitlan Collins, Vivian Salama, Jake Tapper and Kylie Atwood, CNN
Matt Pottinger resigns.
6. China Uses Capitol Violence to Cast Narrative of U.S. Hypocrisy
Bloomberg · by Bloomberg News · January 7, 2021
Revisionist and rogue power propaganda departments are going to have a field day with the insurrection.
Who is working on developing a superior US narrative? (and the actions that would back up the necessary narrative)
7. Asia delights and despairs in Trump’s Capitol siege
asiatimes.com · by David Hutt · January 7, 2021
Again, who in our government is working the counter narrative and developing the superior American narrative?
We are playing right into our enemies' hands:
But some of America’s authoritarian opponents, many lambasted by Washington for years for their lack of democracy and rights, responded with thinly-veiled mockery and triumphant finger-pointing.
Analysts and observers suggest that America’s prestige in many parts of Asia will take time to recover from the chaotic events, and that its reputation as a beacon and defender of democracy could be permanently tainted by the siege.
“It’s certainly a black eye for the United States – there’s no way around it,” said Bradley Murg, senior advisor and distinguished senior research fellow at the Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and Peace in Phnom Penh.
“I expect authoritarian regimes in Asia at present are more concerned with preparing for engagement with the new Democratic administration than attempting to score short-term political points for domestic audiences,” he added. “And if they aren’t, they should be.”
8. Fauci sees greater China role in COVID-19 spread, looking back one year later
Axios · by Eileen Drage O'Reilly
This might have a little more impact on another news day.
The bottom line: The pandemic has demonstrated that "the unimaginable can happen" Fauci says. But, he hopes "we're very, very much back to normal a year from now."
9. This Is a Coup
defenseone.com · by David A. Graham
This pairs with the next article that argues this was not a coup. Discuss among yourselves.
10. This is Not a Coup
defenseone.com · by Kevin Baron
Counterpoint:
“Mob. Riot. Terror. Extreme. There are lots of words to describe this dark day. Coup, is not one of them.”
11. Former SecDef Jim Mattis Denounces Pro-Trump 'Violent Assault' on US Capitol
military.com · by Hope Hodge Seck · January 6, 2021
12. ‘Once You Engage in Political Violence, It Becomes Easier to Do It Again’
I do fear those who are willing to use violence may be emboldened by yesterday's attack. There is political defiance, political resistance, and political violence. Did we cross the Rubicon yesterday?
defenseone.com · by Naomi Schalit
As I posted on social media last evening: I can only hope and pray “that which does not kill our democracy will make it stronger.” I hope we can find an opportunity in this that will show us a path forward and that in time we will be stronger from what happened — If we still believe in our oath to support and defend the Constitution of the United States. We need a greater love for our Constitution, our country, our ideals and values, and all our fellow Americans than we have hatred for those with whom we have political disagreements. God bless America.
13. Biden Plans to Build a Grand Alliance to Counter China. It Won’t Be Easy.
WSJ · by Bob Davis and Lingling Wei· January 6, 2021
All news will be overshadowed by yesterday's attack. But we have to move forward and we cannot be consumed by those events. We have to continue to debate and discuss the national security issues.
The question is can we lead and harness the power of a "coalition of democracies?"
14. U.S. Considers Adding Alibaba, Tencent to China Stock Ban
WSJ · by Dawn Lim, Jing Yang and Gordon Lubold· January 6, 2021
Excerpts:
“Major U.S. asset managers including T. Rowe Price Group Inc., BlackRock Inc. and Vanguard Group are among the top public shareholders of Alibaba and Tencent through funds, according to FactSet data.
Asset managers are lobbying to prevent a situation in which companies such as Alibaba could become blacklisted, said a person familiar with large financial firms’ conversations with U.S. regulators.
Last week, the Treasury Department published guidelines that include subsidiaries in the ban if a company named on the list holds ownership of 50% or more in them. Derivatives, bonds and depositary receipts, as well as exchange-traded funds, index funds and mutual funds holding securities issued by these entities in any jurisdiction will also be restricted to U.S. investors.”
15. America's Pacific Strategy Needs an Update
The National Interest · by Dan Goure · January 7, 2021
Dr. Goure is arguing to make the case for a large US ground force in Asia.
Conclusion: "A Biden administration will certainly articulate a new National Security Strategy that differs in many respects from that of the Trump administration. But it will be impossible to deny the basic reality of great power competition and the continuous growth of the Chinese military. It is up to the Army’s senior leaders to articulate the value of large land forces for deterrence and warfighting in the Indo-Pacific region."
Actually, the ultimate goal is not controlling or denying critical land. The ultimate goal is achieving the political object. The question is what is the political object of our strategy? What is the acceptable, durable political arrangement that will protect, serve, and advance US and allied] national interests.
16. The World Is Watching Us
thebulwark.com · by Shay Khatiri · January 7, 2021
Yes, the world is looking up to the city on a hill.
17. China's "Unrestricted War" On The United States
ZeroHedge· by Doug Dodge · January 7, 2021
A short review.
18. Pentagon must continue military support to CIA's counterterrorism operations
washingtontimes.com · by Abraham Wagner· January 7, 2021
From what I understand from talking to people who know these things, the media and pundits are blowing this out of proportion. This is about reviewing the agreements between the Pentagon and the CIA.
19. A Cyber Opportunity: Priorities for the First National Cyber Director
warontherocks.com · by Mark Montgomery and Robert Morgan· January 7, 2021
Conclusion:
“Moore’s law, familiar to many in the cyber world, posits that the number of transistors on a circuit board will double every 18 months, and with it, our computing power. Cyber policy follows a similar law, wherein circumstances constantly shift and new policies and laws are required roughly every 18 months. The White House should be agile enough to keep pace. The Office of the National Cyber Director is a step in the right direction, but its first 18 months will be critical for ensuring not only its success, but also that of the nation. The national cyber director should construct the office, develop a new strategy, and possibly work with lawmakers on further laws.
In sum, the national cyber director should be ready and equipped to lead the executive branch through the next set of cyber security challenges, whatever they may be.”
20. What is the role of Information Operations in supporting training missions? Or, when is a tweet more than just a tweet?
Small Wars Journal· Scott Fisher · January 7, 2021
Conclusion: "The J39 (IO) team identified shortcomings in IO doctrine for missions occurring in locations outside of Title 10, specifically in Africa. To overcome these shortcomings, we developed and implemented several field-expedient methods, as outlined above. It is unlikely that these methods represent the ‘best’ or most effective way forward, though we hope others find them useful. Instead, this paper is meant to signal that further work needs to be done to update doctrine and training to better reflect the challenges facing IO planners across the full spectrum of deployed environments."
21. The Two Special Operations Trinities
Small Wars Journal Dave Maxwell · January 7, 2021
I've been waiting for months for this to be published by JSOU as part of a conference publication but I was informed by the editor that it would not be included due to space limitations. But I wanted to offer my views on what I like to describe as the two SOF "trinities."
---------------
"Democracy washes its dirty linen in public ... but it gets it clean."
- Frank Crane
"Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide. It is in vain to say that democracy is less vain, less proud, less selfish, less ambitious, or less avaricious than aristocracy or monarchy. It is not true, in fact, and nowhere appears in history. Those passions are the same in all men, under all forms of simple government, and when unchecked, produce the same effects of fraud, violence, and cruelty."
- John Adams
"Although our interests as citizens vary, each one is an artery to the heart that pumps life through the body politic, and each is important to the health of democracy."
- Bill Moyers
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un Continues Report on Work of 7th Central Committee of WPK
2. Kim Jong Un Promotes Little Sister Again After Admitting His Economic Plan Is a Bust
3. S. Korean delegation departs for Iran to negotiate release of seized oil tanker
4. N.K. leader vows to promote peace by strengthening defense
5. Moon says national unity is important in new year
6. North Korean teens face gulag for using 'perverted' slang words
7. New infection cases under 1,000 for 3rd day; restrictions eased on indoor sports facilities
8. North Korea forms new research center focused on "hypersonic missiles"
9. North Korea appears to be jamming Unification Media Group radio broadcasts
10. KEDO: Long Gone, and Nearly Forgotten
11. N.K. leader vows to boost defense capabilities at party congress
12. North Korea appears intent on receiving "international support" for a COVID-19 vaccine
13. Cheong Wa Dae denies report on pardons for Park, Lee
14. Moon's disapproval rate surpasses 60% for 1st time
15. S. Korea congratulates Biden on Congress' certification of election victory
16. North Korea: Out Of The Frying Pan, Into The Fire - Analysis
17. Wendy Sherman is likely to rank top 2nd in U.S. State Department (South Korean perspective)
18. Kim Jong-un Admits 'Near-Total' Economic Failure
19. Kim Jong Un Tells Ruling Party Congress He Wants Defense Boost
20. N. Korea's Kim urges 'big leap forward' at rare party congress
21. North Korea's party congress is moment of truth for Kim and country
1. Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un Continues Report on Work of 7th Central Committee of WPK
kcnawatch.org · January 7, 2021
Summary of the Day 2 report for the 8th Party Congress: infrastructure, agriculture, people's living standards, science and tech, and defense.
2. Kim Jong Un Promotes Little Sister Again After Admitting His Economic Plan Is a Bust
The Daily Beast · by Donald Kirk · January 6, 2021
It is likely Kim Yo-jong is the person Kim trusts the most. This may be to help reinforce the Paektu bloodline and strengthen the legitimacy of the Kim family regime. It is possible that this is part of a long term succession plan. But it appears from Kim Yo-jong's actions over the past two years that Kim Jong-un intends to use her to play a hardline role and exert pressure, especially on South Korea.
3. S. Korean delegation departs for Iran to negotiate release of seized oil tanker
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · January 7, 2021
Excerpts:
“Iran has claimed that the seizure took place due to "technical issues" and the matter will be addressed in line with its judicial process. The ship's operator has denied the oil pollution allegations.
Seoul's First Vice Foreign Minister Choi Jong-kun is also expected to travel to Iran early next week to discuss the seizure and other bilateral issues.”
4. N.K. leader vows to promote peace by strengthening defense
en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · January 7, 2021
Invoking President Reagan? "Peace through strength."
5. Moon says national unity is important in new year
en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · January 7, 2021
National unity should be a priority for all countries.
6. North Korean teens face gulag for using 'perverted' slang words
Daily Mail · by Michael Havis · January 6, 2021
I guess washing mouths out with soup is not an appropriate punishment in north Korea.
7. New infection cases under 1,000 for 3rd day; restrictions eased on indoor sports facilities
en.yna.co.kr · by 김은정 · January 7, 2021
Too soon to lift restrictions? There is a lag time for these actions.
8. North Korea forms new research center focused on "hypersonic missiles"
dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · January 6, 2021
Hypersonic missiles are all the rage today. Of course, Kim will want this capability.
9. North Korea appears to be jamming Unification Media Group radio broadcasts
dailynk.com · by Mun Dong Hui · January 7, 2021
We should consider that the regime has to expend a lot of electricity to generate the power to jam radio signals. It is another example of how Kim's policy choices contribute to the suffering of the Korean people.
10. KEDO: Long Gone, and Nearly Forgotten
38north.org · by Robert Carlin · January 6, 2021
History of another failed attempt to denuclearize the north.
11. N.K. leader vows to boost defense capabilities at party congress
en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · January 7, 2021
Despite all the economic failure, that Kim has admitted he is going to double down on support to the military. Kim's deliberate policy choices lead to the suffering of the Korean people in the north. We have offered a brighter future to the north if he will make the right strategic decision. The South has offered engagement opportunities. The South has worked to decrease tensions and has implemented confidence-building measures through the Comprehensive Military Agreement, with risk to ROK/US combined military readiness in an attempt to show the regime it does not have a hostile policy. But all to no avail. Kim's priority is to developing offensive military capabilities and this can only be for one purpose: to support the regime goal to dominate the peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
12. North Korea appears intent on receiving "international support" for a COVID-19 vaccine
dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · January 7, 2021
Note that the regime will not cooperate with South Korea. I urge the Moon administration to re-evaluate its assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime. Kim does not share moon's vision for peace and reconciliation.
13. Cheong Wa Dae denies report on pardons for Park, Lee
koreaherald.com · by Lee Ji-yoon · January 7, 2021
Excerpts:
“Cheong Wa Dae on Thursday flatly denied a report that the presidential office was considering ways to grant pardons to Park Geun-hye and Lee Myung-bak, the two former presidents jailed for abuses of power and corruption offenses.
Earlier in the day, the Chosun Ilbo reported that Cheong Wa Dae was considering pardoning Park first while discussing other options like a suspension of prison sentence for Lee, citing unnamed sources from the ruling bloc.
Pardons can only be granted by the president, but suspensions of prison time can be decided by the Ministry of Justice.”
14. Moon's disapproval rate surpasses 60% for 1st time
The Korea Times· by Kim Rahn · January 7, 2021
Perhaps his approval rating would rise if he did agree to pardon former Presidents Pak and Lee.
15. S. Korea congratulates Biden on Congress' certification of election victory
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · January 7, 2021
The ROKG did not waste any time. I am sure this message was prepped well ahead of time but it was probably delayed due to yesterday's events at our capitol.
16. North Korea: Out Of The Frying Pan, Into The Fire - Analysis
eurasiareview.com · by East Asia Forum · January 7, 2021
We have to be concerned that a perfect storm is brewing in north Korea.
Key point: "The economic damage has likely been just as great as the medical damage. This is largely of the government's own making. North Korea's border lockdown has caused trade with China, its only meaningful trade partner, to drop to extreme low levels - just US$1.6 million in October 2020, according to official figures. Several reports have spoken of food shortages and soaring market prices resulting in large part from the border shutdown."
17. Wendy Sherman is likely to rank top 2nd in U.S. State Department (South Korean perspective)
donga.com· January 7, 2021
Interesting assessment here: "Although Sherman, a dovish politician, engaged deeply in dialogue with North Korea, she turned into a hard-liner in retirement and stressed the necessity of all-out pressures on Pyongyang including military measures. She would once make harsh remarks by saying that Kim Jong Un should be called a murderous dictator."
18. Kim Jong-un Admits 'Near-Total' Economic Failure
english.chosun.com· January 7, 2021
However, he does not admit that the fundamental reasons for the failure are his deliberate policy decisions.
19. Kim Jong Un Tells Ruling Party Congress He Wants Defense Boost
Bloomberg · by Jeong-Ho Lee · January 7, 2021
In 1992 during the US presidential campaign the bumper sticker was "It's the economy, stupid"
For the Kim family regime we should understand that it is always "it's the military, stupid."
20. N. Korea's Kim urges 'big leap forward' at rare party congress
Hmmm... we have modifications of Reagan and Mao - peace through strong defense (Peace through strength) and a big leap forward (Great leap forward).
21. North Korea's party congress is moment of truth for Kim and country
Newsweek · by Tom O'Connor · January 6, 2021
Perfect storm? Will the party be able to govern (and maintain total control) over all of north Korea and will the military remain coherent and continue to provide blind support to the regime? We must be focused on the indications and warnings for instability.
But Michael Madden disagrees with me: "In contrast to other Pyongyang watchers," Madden said, "I don't think Kim Jong Un is under any more domestic pressure than political leaders in other countries coping with and possibly struggling with the pandemic's effects."
When we were writing the CONPLAN for north Korean instability and regime collapse we borrowed from Sun Tzu - "never assume your enemy will not attack, make yourself invincible" and adapted it this way, "never assume the north will not collapse, be prepared if it happens." We need to observe for the indications and warnings.
---------------
"Democracy washes its dirty linen in public ... but it gets it clean."
- Frank Crane
"Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide. It is in vain to say that democracy is less vain, less proud, less selfish, less ambitious, or less avaricious than aristocracy or monarchy. It is not true, in fact, and nowhere appears in history. Those passions are the same in all men, under all forms of simple government, and when unchecked, produce the same effects of fraud, violence, and cruelty."
- John Adams
"Although our interests as citizens vary, each one is an artery to the heart that pumps life through the body politic, and each is important to the health of democracy."
- Bill Moyers
Full Post: https://sof.news/afghanistan/afghan-news-summary-2020/
Topics Include:
Ongoing Negotiations with the Taliban
Targeted Killings
Chinese Spy Ring
Bounties
U.S. and Taliban Drones
End of the A-29 training program at Moody AFB
End of U.S. funding for the ALP
An excellent open source analysis of Iranian UAV systems, ranging from small tactical platforms to aircraft that appear to be emulating medium-altitude armed UAVs like the U.S. MQ-1 or MQ-9. Another example of the impressive intelligence insights and products that can be derived from open source means. Especially relevent as tensions in the region remain high (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-drill-drone/iran-tests-drones-in-military-exercise-idUSKBN29A1A3).
Full Article: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2019/09/the-oryx-handbook-of-iranian-drones.html
Full Newsletter: https://sof.news/update/20210104/
Topics Include:
Upgrade for ASD SO/LIC
DoD support to the CIA
SOF personnel in the news, for good and bad reasons
SOF and Ethics
Great Power Competition
(Subscription Required) A look at how the countries of Eastern Europe and Scandanavia are adapting to increased Russian aggression and posturing to deter conflict or prepare for potential aspects of Russian war plans.
Full Article: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-aggression-spurs-neighbors-to-rebuild-defenses-11609859853?mod=hp_lead_pos10
From members of the U.S. Army's Asymmetric Warfare Group
Authors: T.S. Allen, Kyle Brown, and Jonathan Askonas
Full Article: https://warontherocks.com/2020/12/how-the-army-out-innovated-the-islamic-states-drones/
Some "Lessons for the Next IED" from the article
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. South Korean tanker was boarded by armed Iran Guard forces
2. The Wuhan lab-leak hypothesis goes mainstream
3. NYSE scraps plans to delist Chinese telecom stocks
4. Pompeo cites China, North Korea as Trump’s unfinished business
5. On anniversary of downed Flight 752, it's time to hold Iran accountable
6. Is America back? The high politics of trade in the Indo-Pacific
7. Ten angry men: what the incredible letter from former Defense Secretaries should tell Americans
8. Everybody spies in cyberspace. The U.S. must plan accordingly.
9. Jolo police charged with murder, planting evidence in soldiers' slay
10. Snowden's no hero
11. The mutated virus is a ticking time bomb
12. Beijing’s bid for financial supremacy
13. President Trump must act on behalf of Robert Bales and other convicted warfighters
14. Complaint about Green Beret colonel’s ‘overreactions’ was dismissed months before police standoff
15. Top Pentagon official dismissed U.S. alliances with Taiwan, Australia
16. Philippine ‘within striking distance’: China seen gearing up for full naval base operations on Fiery Cross Reef
17. Pentagon gets diversity watchdog in bill passed over Trump veto
18. Three brothers: a Navy SEAL, Green Beret, and the Marine sole survivor
19. Biden should retain these Trump policies to keep America great in 2021
20. Options to prioritize people and improve readiness: decreasing OPTEMPO to increase learning
21. Biden’s security adviser gives a foreign policy preview
22. Afghan conflict - a look back at 2020
1. South Korean tanker was boarded by armed Iran Guard forces
AP · Hyung-Jin Kim & Jon Gambrell · January 5, 2021
2. The Wuhan lab-leak hypothesis goes mainstream
National Review · Jim Geraghty · January 4, 2021
I wondered about this last February.
3. NYSE scraps plans to delist Chinese telecom stocks
Wall Street Journal · Chong Koh Ping & Ben Otto · January 5, 2021
About face.
I received these comments from a friend who knows and understands finance and investing and history better than I ever will:
“I laughed at the Washington showboat politicians on delisting Alibaba, JD. Com, et al. An American proverb comes to mind: “cut off one’s own nose to spite the face.” London used to be the center of global finance and global listings; they made the similar hubris mistakes as this. So, we lose several trillions in capital – for what?? Send it to Hong Kong to be laundered back to Beijing in new aircraft carriers and a global blue water navy? All that global investor capital will follow Alibaba, Baidu, et al wherever they are listed.”
4. Pompeo cites China, North Korea as Trump’s unfinished business
Bloomberg · Nick Wadhams · January 4, 2021
In his defense, every administration has unfinished business with North Korea. As long as the Kim family regime remains in power, business will always be unfinished.
5. On anniversary of downed Flight 752, it’s time to hold Iran accountable
Hill · Toby Dershowitz, Alireza Nader, &Dylan Gresik · January 4, 2021
6. Is America back? The high politics of trade in the Indo-Pacific
Brookings · Mireya Solís · January 4, 2021
7. Ten angry men: what the incredible letter from former Defense Secretaries should tell Americans
TIME · James Stavridis · January 4, 2021
8. Everybody spies in cyberspace. The U.S. must plan accordingly.
Defense One · Amy Zegart · January 4, 2021
We must work from the assumption that we can be compromised in cyberspace.
9. Jolo police charged with murder, planting evidence in soldiers' slay
Rappler · Rambo Talabong · January 4, 2021
Wow. This is difficult to believe.
10. Snowden's no hero
Washington Examiner · Rebeccah Heinrichs · January 1, 2021
In my humble opinion, he is a traitor.
11. The mutated virus is a ticking time bomb
Defense One · Zeynep Tufekci · January 4, 2021
But this will be denied by the COVID deniers and conspiracy theorists.
12. Beijing’s bid for financial supremacy
Wall Street Journal · Kevin Warsh · January 4, 2021
13. President Trump Must Act on Behalf of Robert Bales and Other Convicted Warfighters
Military.com · David Gurfein · January 4, 2021
Oh no. Wow. This is quite an argument. Clearly, if the author's allegations are true, we made some horrendous process mistakes. But Bales has been proven to be a cold-blooded murderer. He should not be pardoned. At best and again if the process allegations are true, he should be retired. Then again, he has exhausted all his appeals (with the Supreme Court declining to hear the case) so it seems that due process has been conducted.
But I will leave this to the legal experts to assess and explain.
14. Complaint about Green Beret colonel’s ‘overreactions’ was dismissed months before police standoff
Military Times · Kyle Rempfer · January 4, 2021
Such a terrible tragedy for the family. But this article exposes an issue that is going to add to all of the controversy about investigations in the military, especially investigations of senior officers.
15. Top Pentagon official dismissed U.S. alliances with Taiwan, Australia
Washington Times · Rowan Scarborough · January 4, 2021
James Baker has been the subject of controversy before.
16. Philippine ‘within striking distance’: China seen gearing up for full naval base operations on Fiery Cross Reef
Straits Times · January 5, 2021
17. Pentagon gets diversity watchdog in bill passed over Trump veto
Bloomberg · Anthony Capaccio · January 5, 2021
There is a lot to unpack from the NDAA.
18. Three brothers: a Navy SEAL, Green Beret and the Marine sole survivor
Marine Corps Times · Todd South · January 5, 2021
Quite a story. If someone pitched this for a fictional movie it would probably be rejected as being too far-fetched.
19. Biden should retain these Trump policies to keep America great in 2021
Hill · Merrill Matthews · January 4, 2021
20. Options to Prioritize People and Improve Readiness: Decreasing OPTEMPO to Increase Learning
Divergent Options · Josh Linvill · January 4, 2021
One of the biggest challenges our military faces.
21. Biden’s security adviser gives a foreign policy preview
Asia Times · MK Bhadrakumar · January 5, 2021
Here is the link to the transcript of Jake Sullivan's discussion with Freed Zakaria on Sunday.
22. Afghan conflict - a look back at 2020
SOF News · January 5, 2021
" Kind people help each other even without noticing that they are doing so, and evil people act against each other on purpose."
- Chinese proverb
"A gunshot wound may be cured, but the wound made by the tongue never heals."
- Persian wisdom
"Let all your efforts be directed to something, let it keep that end in view. It's not activity that disturbs people, but false conscriptions of things that drive them mad."
- Seneca
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. South Korea sends destroyer after Iran seizes tanker
2. Seoul to send delegation to Iran to negotiate release of seized S. Korean ship
3. Iran says South Korea holding $7 bln Iran funds 'hostage'
4. S. Korea, Iran in talks over use of frozen money to purchase vaccines
5. North Korea requests Covid-19 vaccines from global group
6. A self-defeating policy
7. N. Korea shows no sign of 'major provocation' for now: USFK chief
8. U.S. Forces Korea CO: America still conducting theater-level training exercises
9. As birthrate falls, South Korea’s population declines, posing threat to economy
10. N. Korea remains silent on rare party congress
11. South Korea’s population falls for first time, likely worsened by Covid-19
12. South Korea should stop acting as North Korea’s doormat
13. Pyongyang celebrates 2021, but a parade is still to come
14. New Congresswoman sports hanbok to swearing-in
15. S. Korean shipyards tipped to take No. 1 spot in new orders in 2020
16. S. Korean unit begins operations in Hormuz Strait after Iran's oil tanker seizure
17. U.S.-South Korea alliance: a new vision for the global challenges ahead
18. UN petition concerning the Song Young-Gil Amendment to the Inter-Korean Relations Development Act (North Korean information gag law)
19. Observing the "immovable object": an interview with A.B. Abrams on North Korea
1. South Korea sends destroyer after Iran seizes tanker
Asia Times · Andrew Salmon · January 5, 2021
The South Korean Navy and SEALs conducted an excellent rescue operation of a South Korean vessel from pirates off the Horn of Africa during anti-piracy operations. I do not think a similar rescue operation is in the cards in Iran.
I do think, given the geostrategic situation in the Middle East, we are seeing a 3 dimensional chess game play out.
2. Seoul to send delegation to Iran to negotiate release of seized S. Korean ship
Yonhap News Agency · 강윤승 · January 5, 2021
Negotiate from a position of strength. Please learn from the mistakes of dealing with North Korea. Appeasement will not be successful.
3. Iran says South Korea holding $7 bln Iran funds ‘hostage’
Jerusalem Post · Reuters · January 5, 2021
Hmmm... Iran's "blackmail diplomacy?"
4. S. Korea, Iran in talks over use of frozen money to purchase vaccines
Yonhap News Agency · 송상호 · January 5, 2021
Again, 3D chess.
5. North Korea requests Covid-19 vaccines from global group
Wall Street Journal · Timothy W. Martin · January 4, 2021
I would make provision of vaccines contingent on transparency of the COVID situation in North Korea.
We should also keep in mind that the regime's hackers are attacking vaccine manufacturers as it keeps all its options open.
6. A self-defeating policy
Chosun Ilbo · Victor Cha · January 5, 2021
An important critique from Dr. Cha.
7. N. Korea shows no sign of 'major provocation' for now: USFK chief
Yonhap News Agency · 변덕근 · January 5, 2021
The operative words are "for now."
General Abrams provided a pretty comprehensive overview of the security situation. I am surprised the press did not discuss our conversation about training and OPCON transition and the general's explanation of the conditions and the 26 discrete mission essential tasks. I thought the Koran media would pick up on that. I concluded my comments with the remark that failure to meet the conditions required for OPCON transition will put the security of the ROK at great risk.
8. U.S. Forces Korea CO: America still conducting theater-level training exercises
USNI News · John Grady · January 4, 2021
General Abrams debunked the myth that training has been halted in Korea. He outlined some of the challenges, especially with regards to live fire training. But he has been conducting training in accordance with his 2019 posture statement for his Senate testimony by using the "4 dials" to adjust training in support of diplomacy:
“However, we must continuously strike a balance between the clear need to train and exercise military capability and the requirement to create space for and support strategic diplomacy. To help achieve this equilibrium, we are innovating and evolving our approach by tuning 4 dials that adjust exercise design and conduct – size, scope, volume, and timing. Adjustments to these dials allows exercise design to remain in tune with diplomatic and political requirements without sacrificing the training of essential tasks and evolving our approach by tuning 4 dials that adjust exercise design and conduct – size, scope, volume, and timing. Adjustments to these dials allows exercise design to remain in tune with diplomatic and political requirements without sacrificing the training of essential tasks. Additionally, such fine tuning allows for the mitigation of impacts inherent to rapidly switching from our traditional large-scale exercise program to one of more targeted events.”
He also made the key point that they are just not talking about training as one of the reasons why people think we have hated training (which was among our recommendations in 2018 for adjusting training to test Kim Jong-Un).
Unfortunately, Kim's actions have shown he has not passed this test and all our efforts to reduce the perceived provocative nature of the training in the hopes that there would be a diplomatic breakthrough have been for naught.
Last evening a journalist asked me if we should cancel training altogether in return for negotiations and denuclearization. He asked if that would be a good tradeoff. Here is my response:
All militaries must train. Training is a perishable skill. Every day that goes by that an army does not train makes it weaker. Just as a professional football team or a golfer or a chess player must train in order to maintain their skills, armies must train. Or, as Confucius said, "to send an untrained army to war is to throw it away." As we speak, North Korea is conducting its annual winter training cycle, which occurs from the end of November to the end of March. This exercise is designed to bring the North Korean People's Army (NKPA) to the highest state of readiness by March, which is the optimal time for attack of the South, because the ground is still frozen and the farmers in the South have not planted the rice fields, both of which benefit maneuver of military vehicles. This is one of the reasons we have always conducted Team Spirit (which was at one time the largest training exercise in the free world and which we ended in 1993 as a concession for the failed Agreed Framework of 1994). Because North Korea continued to prepare for offensive operations, we later developed exercise RSO&I and Key Resolve. We then moved Foal Eagle from the fall to the late winter so we would have a major training exercise to bring ROK and US forces to the highest state of readiness to both deter the North and be ready to "fight tonight" should Kim choose to execute his campaign plan to unify the peninsula by force. Failure to train would be the height of irresponsibility on the part of military and political leaders.
But the premise to your question is a dangerous one. First, it presupposes that Kim Jong-Un would come to the negotiating table if we would stop training. We have tested this premise since June 2018. The Comprehensive Military Agreement of September 2018 between North and South Korea was designed to implement confidence building measures, but there has been almost zero reciprocity from the North, only token actions in the JSA, and the removal of a handful of guard posts. The North continues to have its forces postured for offensive operations with 70% of its 1.2-million-man army forward deployed in an offensive posture between the DMZ and Pyongyang. The North has done nothing of substance to reduce the threat to the South or reduce tensions in a substantive way.
Second, would it be worth the gamble to put the security of the ROK at risk by not conducting training? Again, failing to train would render ROK and US forces incapable of deterring and when deterrence fails the combined military force would be incapable of conducting the necessary missions of defending the ROK and defeating the NKPA. The belief that the regime would respond in good faith is not born out by history and illustrates a lack of understanding of the nature of the Kim family regime and its strategy to dominate the Korean peninsula. We must understand the strategic interests, aim, and objectives of the regime. These can be summed up this way:
The Kim family regime as a seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia-like crime family cult known as Kim family regime. In support of this strategy, Kim Jong-Un has the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula. He has a divide-to-conquer strategy: divide the alliance to conquer the ROK.
Kim Jong-Un will neither come to the negotiating table nor denuclearize in return for our ending exercises. His rhetoric about exercises is really designed to accomplish his objectives. His demand for an end to the US "hostile policy" is described this way:
Kim's view of the steps required from the Singapore statement:
1. Change relationship - declaration of the end of the war (end of hostile US policy - i.e., peace regime)
2. Sanctions relief (permanent removal)
3. Denuclearization of the South (end of alliance, removal of troops, end of nuclear umbrella over ROK and Japan)
4. Negotiate dismantlement of the north’s and ICBM programs
In Short:
NK demand: change relationship, build trust, denuclearize
US desire: denuclearize, build trust, change relationship
The problem with the North Korean demand is that it would put the ROK at great risk, and, once US forces are off the peninsula, it is likely conflict will occur.
Ending training on the Korean peninsula in return for the hope of denuclearization would be the first step on the path to splitting the ROK/US alliance and putting the North on the path to use force to unify the peninsula. Again, offering to end training would be the height of irresponsibility.
9. As birthrate falls, South Korea’s population declines, posing threat to economy
New York Times · Rick Gladstone · January 4, 2021
This is getting some attention in the US mainstream media.
It is more than a threat to the economy. It is a national security threat as well with the declining pool for military-age personnel.
Korea must solve the "Korea question" to mitigate the effects of this decline.
10. N. Korea remains silent on rare party congress
Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · January 5, 2021
Keeping us guessing and waiting with bated breath. What will we see, hear, and read?
11. South Korea’s population falls for first time, likely worsened by Covid-19
Wall Street Journal · Eun-Young Jeong · January 4, 2021
It is not just the declining birth rate but also the increase in the numbers of the elderly. South Korea is facing a complex problem.
12. South Korea should stop acting as North Korea’s doormat
National Interest · Doug Bandow · January 4, 2021
Do we really think North Korea can ever become a "normal country" given the nature, strategy, and objectives of the Kim family regime?
13. Pyongyang celebrates 2021, but a parade is still to come
38 North · Martyn Williams · January 4, 2021
We could see some kind of military event.
14. New Congresswoman sports hanbok to swearing-in
Chosun Ilbo · Kim Jin-myung · January 5, 2021
15. S. Korean shipyards tipped to take No. 1 spot in new orders in 2020
Yonhap News Agency · 곽영섭 · January 5, 2021
How many commercial ships were built in the US?
16. S. Korean unit begins operations in Hormuz Strait after Iran’s oil tanker seizure
Yonhap News Agency · 오석민 · January 5, 2021
17. U.S.-South Korea alliance: a new vision for the global challenges ahead
Forbes · Scott Snyder · January 4, 2021
Important recommendations.
I would add to these thoughts and recommendations the key point that the Biden and Moon agreement must come to sufficient agreement on strategic assumptions regarding North Korea.
A political strategy alone will not defeat the Kim family regime's political warfare strategy. We need a superior form of political warfare.
A wise Korea hand once said to me that just about everything that could be tried with North Korea has been tried and all we can do is keep repackaging previous actions in new ways to try to achieve some kind of progress.
But we need to thoroughly assess the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime and then develop a new strategy that will result in a new, acceptable, durable political arrangement that will protect, serve, and advance US and US-ROK alliance interests.
A key initial effort of the Biden administration should be a convening of the MOFA-State strategy working group. A review of alliance strategies should be conducted with a focus on assessing the fundamental assumptions upon which ROK and US policies and strategies are based. The Moon Administration has been laboring under the erroneous assumption that Kim Jong-Un supports President Moon’s vision of peace and reconciliation and that there can be North-South engagement on reciprocal terms. A thorough analysis and understanding of the Kim family regime will reveal the Kim family regimes’ strategy is to use political warfare to subvert South Korea and, when conditions are right, to use force to unify the peninsula under northern rule. Basing policy and strategy on the Moon administration’s assumptions is the path to failure on the Korean peninsula.
We should never forget this point: the root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
18. UN petition concerning the Song Young-Gil Amendment to the Inter-Korean Relations Development Act (North Korean information gag law)
Transitional Justice Working Group · December 30, 2020
A very comprehensive description of the law and issues.
19. Observing the "immovable object": an interview with A.B. Abrams on North Korea
Daily NK · Gabriela Bernal · December 30, 2020
Can you say revisionist history? I think A.B. Abrams must be the next generation Bruce Cumings. Blame America.
" Kind people help each other even without noticing that they are doing so, and evil people act against each other on purpose."
- Chinese proverb
"A gunshot wound may be cured, but the wound made by the tongue never heals."
- Persian wisdom
"Let all your efforts be directed to something, let it keep that end in view. It's not activity that disturbs people, but false conscriptions of things that drive them mad."
- Seneca
