Edited by Bradley Bowman

Foreword by former Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta

December 2020

From former SECDEF Panetta:

"Besieged by a global pandemic, saddled with growing federal debt, and distracted by other domestic challenges, Americans are not thinking about U.S. defense policy or global military posture. Lately, they have grown concerned about the very state of our democracy.

When foreign policy manages to enter a conversation, it often takes the form of support for “ending endless wars.” I certainly appreciate the desire to end military conflicts and deployments. Too often as secretary of defense, I found that my most difficult responsibility was calling or writing families to inform them that a loved one tragically paid the ultimate price for our country.

But whether we like it or not, the United States confronts a growing array of serious national security threats. Moscow, Beijing, Tehran, and Pyongyang, in addition to a number of determined terrorist organizations, continue to pursue objectives inimical to American interests.

In considering how to best respond, I draw lessons from my five decades of public service."

The monograph from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies can be accessed HERE.

This piece originally appeared at USIP.org.

Full Article: https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/12/gridlocked-afghan-peace-talks-overcome-another-hurdle

By Scott Worden

With procedural rules finally settled, both sides are waiting to see how a change in the U.S. administration could affect talks.

Afghan peace negotiations began in mid-September, bringing together the Afghan government and Taliban for the first time to negotiate an end to four decades of war. But, since then, the talks have been mired in squabbles over basic procedures. Last week the sides made a breakthrough and agreed on the rules that will govern future talks, opening the door to the more substantive issue of the agenda for talks—including how and when to talk about a reduction in violence and future political arrangements. Senior U.S. officials praised the agreement and urged the parties to move quickly to a discussion about ways to reduce record-high violence levels.

USIP’s Scott Worden looks at the significance of this breakthrough, why it took so long to get here, and if the incoming Biden administration could shake up the peace process.

[Continued on USIP.org]

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. China's combative nationalists see a world turning their way

2. Revealed: China suspected of spying on Americans via Caribbean phone networks

3. With Americans stuck at home, trade with China roars back

4. Japan's ability and willingness to assist U.S. forces in the East China Sea

5. Measuring soft power

6. What a Biden presidency means for defense

7. 88-day opening of the Northeast Passage sets new Arctic record

8. Hackers have vaulted into the heart of America's government

9. China seems ready for a fight over Taiwan

10. DHS, State and NIH join list of federal agencies - now five - hacked in major Russian cyberespionage campaign

11. 2020 saw the Guard used the most since World War II. Is a retention crisis looming?

12. Our alarming silence on China's violations of rights

13. Getting the VA secretary nominee right for veterans

14. Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine is next in line for authorization

15. 'Massively disruptive' cyber crisis engulfs multiple agencies

16. Xi's China is preparing for a new world order

17. Hong Kong's worst case scenario is happening

18. Trump 2022 DoD budget would kill OCO account; huge Navy boost

19. Boost Coast Guard fleet for Pacific partnerships

20. China and Russia plan to 'deepen' cooperation against US

21. Our bases in US will be attacked: Army

22. Cruel truths behind China's killer fentanyl exports

23. Are U.S. marines actually in Taiwan?

24. End of a terror era in Indonesia

25. Covid-19 shakes South Philippine peace deal

 

1. China's combative nationalists see a world turning their way

New York Times · Chris Buckley · December 14, 2020

Funny how terms and meanings change. We used to call Chiang Kai Shek's forces the nationalist Chinese who escaped to Taiwan.

 

2. Revealed: China suspected of spying on Americans via Caribbean phone networks

Guardian · Stephanie Kirchgaessner · December 15, 2020

We focus on the Russian's revelations yesterday while the Chinese do something else. To borrow from a past president: "it's information warfare, stupid."

 

3. With Americans stuck at home, trade with China roars back

New York Times · Ana Swanson · December 14, 2020

It is not just opium or fentanyl that we are addicted to. It is Chinese goods in general. The second and third order effects of COVID?

 

4. Japan's ability and willingness to assist U.S. forces in the East China Sea

RAND · Jeffrey W. Hornung · December 14, 2020

The 162 page report can be accessed here.

 

5. Measuring Soft Power

Foreign Policy Research Institute · Margaret Seymour · December 14, 2020

Great opening question that is difficult to answer. But the author provides some useful analysis and insights.

 

6. What a Biden presidency means for defense

National Defense · Jon Harper · December 14, 2020

 

7. 88-day opening of the Northeast Passage sets new Arctic record

Splash 247 · Sam Chambers · December 15, 2020

Ah, so there is a Northwest Passage?

 

8. Hackers have vaulted into the heart of America's government

Economist · December 14, 2020

 

9. China seems ready for a fight over Taiwan

1945 · James Holmes · December 9, 2020

I missed this a few days ago. This 19FortyFive website seems to be a new addition to the internet.

 

10. DHS, State and NIH join list of federal agencies - now five - hacked in major Russian cyberespionage campaign

Washington Post · Ellen Nakashima & Craigh Timberg · December 14, 2020

Will this be shown to be the biggest Russian hack in history?

 

11. 2020 saw the Guard used the most since World War II. Is a retention crisis looming?

Army Times · Davis Winkie · December 13, 2020

I did not know this. I would have thought the National Guard deployment numbers would have been higher in earlier years of the GWOT, especially during the surges.

 

12. Our alarming silence on China's violations of rights

Real Clear World · Robert Spalding · December 14, 2020

 

13. Getting the VA secretary nominee right for veterans

Military Times · David Shulkin · December 13, 2020

 

14. Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine is next in line for authorization

Wall Street Journal · Thomas M. Burton & Peter Loftus · December 15, 2020

More good news. One of the biggest and most important legacies of the Trump administration will be how it showed that we can break through the bureaucratic inertia in a crisis.

 

15. ‘Massively disruptive’ cyber crisis engulfs multiple agencies

Politico · Eric Geller · December 14, 2020

What will be our response? I doubt it will be to form a joint Russian/US cyber task force as someone once proposed.

 

16. Xi's China is preparing for a new world order

Washington Post · Ishaan Tharoor · December 15, 2020

I think I preferred President George H.W. Bush's vision of a new world order (that was to result from the post-Cold War world).

 

17. Hong Kong’s worst case scenario is happening

Axios · Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian · December 15, 2020

 

18. Trump 2022 DoD budget would kill OCO account; huge Navy boost

Breaking Defense · Paul McLeary · December 11, 2020

I doubt Congress will pass a law removing OCO funding. I am sure this budget is DOA.

 

19. Boost Coast Guard fleet For Pacific partnerships

Breaking Defense · Ben Bordelon · December 14, 2020

Can we afford this? And what will be the cost to Coast Guard operations around our homeland? I think this makes sense to be able to engage with other Coast Guards as part of great power competition. But can we afford the cost?

 

20. China and Russia plan to 'deepen' cooperation against US

Washington Examiner · Joel Gehrke · December 11, 2020

The enemy of my enemy…

 

21. Our bases in US will be attacked: Army

Breaking Defense · Sydney J. Freedberg Jr. · December 14, 2020

Resilience. Can we develop sufficient resilience?

 

22. Cruel truths behind China’s killer fentanyl exports

Asia Times · Grant Newsham · December 11, 2020

Fentanyl equals subversion. Could be part of unrestricted warfare.

What is subversion? The undermining of the power and authority of an established system or institution—as in "the ruthless subversion of democracy."

 

23. Are U.S. marines actually in Taiwan?

National Interest · Caleb Larson · December 14, 2020

Enquiring minds want to know. Is Taiwan conducting information warfare against China?

 

24. End of a terror era in Indonesia

Asia Times · John McBeth · December 14, 2020

Sounds like some good news. But I fear a Mark Twain ending.

 

25. Covid-19 shakes South Philippine peace deal

Asia Times · Georgi Engelbrecht · December 14, 2020

We will be seeing various second and third order effects of COVID for a long time to come.

 

"In Korea, the Government forces, which were armed to prevent border raids and to preserve internal security, were attacked by invading forces from North Korea....The attack upon Korea makes it plain beyond all doubt that communism has passed beyond the use of subversion to conquer independent nations and will now use armed invasion and war."

- President Harry Truman

“You must never be fearful about what you are doing when it is right.”

-Rosa Parks

"To the wrongs that need resistance,

To the right that needs assistance,

To the future in the distance,

Give yourselves."

- Carrie Chapman Catt

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Legislation banning anti-North Korea leaflets new thorny issue between South Korea, US

2.  A deep dive into N. Korea's new "anti-reactionary thought" law

3. North Korea's nuclear coercion as diplomatic statecraft - analysis

4. Defector Thae Yong-ho: Seoul's parliament 'capitulating' to North Korea

5. South Korea: promote human rights in North Korea

6. Defector activist mulls constitutional complaint over ban on anti-Pyongyang leafleting

7. N. Korea begins regular wintertime drills, no unusual signs detected yet: JCS

8. US military reports 33 new coronavirus patients in Japan and South Korea

9. Time to prepare for the post-Biegun era

10. Korea losing faith in Moon as Covid cases surge

11. Photo studios in Chongjin raided by the authorities

12. JoongAng-CSIS forum warns that North may provoke Biden

13. Anti-North Korea leaflet law faces backlash from within and outside South Korea

14. With year-end parties canceled, alcohol industry targets home drinkers

15. S. Korea to buy MH-60R Seahawk to boost Navy's anti-submarine capabilities

16. Train derailment in mid-November leads to hundreds of casualties

17. North Korea halts all public transportation outside of Pyongyang to stop coronavirus

18. North Korea vows merciless punishment for smugglers to stop COVID-19

 

1. Legislation banning anti-North Korea leaflets new thorny issue between South Korea, US

Korea Times · Kang Seung-woo · December 14, 2020

The first crisis for the Biden administration in Korea may have to do with values and human rights differences between South Korea and the US. The fundamental question for the alliance is whether we going to return to an interest-based and values-based alliance—the shared values of freedom and individual liberty, liberal democracy, free market economics, rule OF law, and human rights. This new law is in contravention to a number of these shared values.

Appeasing North Korea does not work. It has never worked. This is aptly called the "KIm Yo-Jong law," since it is a direct result of her threats in June. 

But doesn't the ROK government see how this looks to its citizens and to the outside world? This is a major mistake and one that could do irreparable damage to the Moon administration (but hopefully South Korea and the alliance can recover from it).

 

2. A deep dive into N. Korea’s new “anti-reactionary thought” law

Daily NK · Jang Seul Gi · December 15, 2020

What is the best action in support of the North's "anti-reactionary thought law?"  South Korea's Kim Yo-Jong law outlawing leaflets sent to North Korea by escapees.

We should never forget the greatest threat to the Kim family regime is the Korean people in the North, armed with information and the truth about their plight and the outside world.

The timing of the South's anti-information law is very coincidental and appears to be in full support of the North's law.

The threat that information poses to the regime is why we recommended these efforts (via the 2019 FDD monograph, Maximum Pressure 2.0) in support of information and influence activities. Unfortunately, current ROK domestic politics prevents many of them.

The United States and South Korea should implement a comprehensive and aggressive IIA campaign in North Korea. The focus should be three-fold: create internal threats against the regime from among the elite, provide the second-tier leadership with alternative paths to survival, and prepare the Korean people for eventual unification under a United Republic of Korea. To do so, we recommend the following steps:

• Develop organizational infrastructure to facilitate IIA: The United States and South Korea lack a single organization to direct IIA against North Korea. Washington and Seoul should establish institutions that would work together to plan and shape combined IIA. Fortunately, as discussed earlier, the United States already has numerous tools at its disposal, such as the State Department’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor; Voice of America; and Radio Free Asia. The United States should centralize these activities under an oversight organization. This organization would coordinate all agencies and departments and work with non-government organizations. Under the Moon administration, there will likely be concerns that IIA could upset diplomatic conditions. Admittedly, an IIA campaign targeting Pyongyang could risk stirring additional short-term tensions with Pyongyang. But U.S. diplomats should remind their ROK counterparts that those tensions may ultimately forge a path to the peaceful denuclearization of North Korea. U.S. diplomats also need to remind their South Korean allies that Seoul’s persistent use of concessions has not elicited progress with Pyongyang.
• Encourage Moon’s government to increase intra-Korean people-to-people exchanges: Washington should encourage intra-Korean engagement by sponsoring people-to-people educational and cultural exchanges. Such exchanges could expose North Korea’s intelligentsia and emerging elites to democratic concepts as well as personal relationships with South Koreans.
• Implement aggressive IIA targeting the North Korea regime: After building a baseline consensus, the United States and South Korea should implement increasingly aggressive IIA targeting the North Korean regime. These activities should inform North Koreans of their universal human rights and civil liberties that the regime is failing to respect. This will undermine the legitimacy of the Kim family regime and give hope to the people living in the North. Alternate sources of information can put regime propaganda in perspective. This campaign could also help lay the initial groundwork for emergent leaders who could replace Kim and who might seek to unify with the South as equal partners under the values of individual liberty and freedom, liberal democracy, and a free market economy. At a minimum, this campaign could help persuade Kim that the status quo poses a greater threat than good faith negotiations with the United States and South Korea. The ultimate goal is to create internal divisions and threats that will influence Kim to denuclearize.
• Increase exposure of North Koreans to the outside world: IIA must exploit North Koreans’ growing access to DVDs, USB drives, and smart phones from outside the country. These media devices can carry content popular among North Koreans, such as South Korean dramas, which can implicitly help Koreans in the North better understand the difference between the regime they have and the government they deserve.
• Establish a Korea Defector Information Institute (KDII): There is no single organization in the United States or South Korea that harnesses the information of defectors to support IIA. If both nations worked together to establish a KDII, it could serve as a repository for defector information to inform policymakers, strategists, and those responsible for developing IIA themes and messages. This institute should utilize defector knowledge and advice in devising appropriate messages and communications techniques. It could also encourage North Koreans to defect, particularly members of Office 39 (also known as Department 39), who are knowledgeable of the Kim family regime’s finances.
• Provide military support to ROK-U.S. government programs for IIA: S. Psychological Operations (PSYOP) forces should be deployed on a permanent basis to support ROK PSYOP forces as part of a national-level alliance IIA campaign. ROK and U.S. PSYOP forces should advise and assist defector organizations to synchronize themes, messages, and dissemination methods to ensure unity of effort.

 

3. North Korea's nuclear coercion as diplomatic statecraft - analysis

Eurasia Review · Geopolitical Monitor · December 15, 2020

A very good and important essay. Note the discussion of the North Korean objective of unification. There should be no doubt about this objective and how the regime is using all means at hand to pursue this strategic aim. This essay describes in another way how I view the regime's strategy: it is a seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime.

Another name for coercion as diplomatic statecraft: blackmail diplomacy. 

 

4. Defector Thae Yong-ho: Seoul's parliament 'capitulating' to North Korea

UPI · Elizabeth Shim · December 14, 2020

Note that the Institute of Corean American Studies (ICAS) will be hosting Thae Young-ho this Thursday evening at 7pm for a virtual seminar. You may register at this link.

These are my submitted questions for him:

• Can you provide recommendations to the ROK/US alliance and the international community about information and influence activities targeting the regime elite, the 2d tier leadership (those leaders outside the core elite but who possess military power and political influence when the regime becomes unstable) and the general populace of the North Korea?
• Specifically, what kinds of themes and messages will resonate with the elite, the 2d tier leadership, and the population and influence their behavior in a positive way to achieve ROK/US Alliance desired effects and objectives?
• What are the most effective means to transmit information?
• If you were to design an information and influence activities campaign, who would you target and what kind of influence objectives would you seek to achieve?

In my previous meetings with Thae, he has provided very important insights and information on influence operations and human rights in North Korea. I hope he will share some of those insights publicly.

 

5. South Korea: promote human rights in North Korea

Human Rights Watch · December 15, 2020

Yes, he should. But sadly, the suffering of the Korean people in the North is not part of his agenda. As a human rights lawyer, I would think President Moon would have taken a strong human rights approach toward North Korea. Unfortunately, his focus on "human rights" has been on developing the and supporting the narrative surrounding the democracy movement of the 1980s and specifically the Kawngju episode. I do not think he has ever done anything is his career concerning human rights in North Korea.

 

6. Defector activist mulls constitutional complaint over ban on anti-Pyongyang leafleting

Yonhap News Agency · 김승연 · December 15, 2020

Maybe this will be a wake-up call for the Moon administration. But based on past actions, I expect it to only double down on its mistakes.

 

7. N. Korea begins regular wintertime drills, no unusual signs detected yet: JCS

Yonhap News Agency · 오석민 · December 15, 2020

Please remember that for the past 2 plus years we have been tailoring ROK/US military training to support diplomacy. But North Korea has never reciprocated and continues to conduct its winter and summer training cycles. We should not sacrifice ROK/US combined military readiness in pursuit of the impossible objective of "appeasing" North Korea with reduced exercises and training in the hopes that it will positively affect North Korean decision making.

My PIR (priority information requirements) for the WTC: how much of the modern military equipment that we observed in the October 10th parade has been fielded to operational units? What units received the equipment? How is it being employed?

 

8. US military reports 33 new coronavirus patients in Japan and South Korea

Stars & Stripes · Joseph Ditzler · December 14, 2020

 

9. Time to prepare for the post-Biegun era

Dong-A Ilbo · Gi-Jae Han · December 15, 2020

There should be no doubt that Steve Biegun and his Korea time worked tirelessly to maintain the ROK/US alliance in the face of nearly impossible conditions posed by both the Kim family regime and the Moon administration's "world view" toward North Korea. This op-ed rightly recognizes those contributions and also that the professional diplomats in South Korea recognize and appreciate those contributions as well. But it also notes that the Moon administration and political leaders need to make changes in their policies.

 

10. Korea losing faith in Moon as Covid cases surge

Asia Times · Andrew Salmon · December 14, 2020

In President Moon's "defense," it is "normal" for Korean presidents to have significantly declining approval ratings in the latter years of their mandatory five-year, one-term presidency.

 

11. Photo studios in Chongjin raided by the authorities

Daily NK · Jong So Yong · December 14, 2020

Do not be misled by the title. This is about cracking down on information flow inside North Korea. The biggest threat to the regime is the Korean people in the North armed with information.

 

12. JoongAng-CSIS forum warns that North may provoke Biden

Korea Joong Ang Daily · Sarah Kim · December 15, 2020

You can view the entire forum at this link.

 

13. Anti-North Korea leaflet law faces backlash from within and outside South Korea

Korea Times · Do Je-hae · December 15, 2020

Resistance to this terrible law both inside and outside Korea. It is too bad the Moon administration will not heed this criticism and likely will double down on it. The Korea Times strategically used the photo of Kim Yo-Jong with Moon and Kim and in the background to emphasize this is the "Kim Yo-Jong command law."

 

14. With year-end parties canceled, alcohol industry targets home drinkers

Korea Herald · Yim Hyun-su · December 15, 2020

This should not be a problem if you are like me and only drink on two occasions: alone or with someone.

But maybe home drinking will produce more moderate drinkers.

 

15. S. Korea to buy MH-60R Seahawk to boost Navy's anti-submarine capabilities

Yonhap News Agency · 최수향 · December 15, 2020

This is more important for South Korea's defense against North Korea's submarine capabilities than building a nuclear powered submarine.

 

16. Train derailment in mid-November leads to hundreds of casualties

Daily NK · Ha Yoon Ah · December 15, 2020

Interesting that half the dead and injured were military personnel. Was this an accident or sabotage? If so, by whom? An indication of nascent resistance inside North Korea?

 

17. North Korea halts all public transportation outside of Pyongyang to stop coronavirus

Radio Free Asia · Jieun Kim, Leejin Jun, & Eugene Whong · December 14, 2020

Another indicator of the effects of COVID inside north Korea.

 

18. North Korea vows merciless punishment for smugglers to stop COVID-19

RFA · Jieun Kim, Leejin Jun, & Eugene Whong · December 14, 2020

Again, we should acknowledge the great work of RFA and VOA and their ability to bring us news about what is happening inside North Korea and, of course, provide this information to the Korean people in the North. The regime's Propaganda and Agitation department does not allow the North Korean "media" to report on what is happening inside North Korea, especially the effects of the draconian population and resources control measures that are ostensibly designed to mitigate the effects of COVID but which are really designed to the tighten the shackles that are oppressing the Korean people in the North.

 

"In Korea, the Government forces, which were armed to prevent border raids and to preserve internal security, were attacked by invading forces from North Korea....The attack upon Korea makes it plain beyond all doubt that communism has passed beyond the use of subversion to conquer independent nations and will now use armed invasion and war."

- President Harry Truman

“You must never be fearful about what you are doing when it is right.”

-Rosa Parks

"To the wrongs that need resistance,

To the right that needs assistance,

To the future in the distance,

Give yourselves."

- Carrie Chapman Catt

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Trump delays plan to hasten coronavirus vaccines for White House staff

2. John le Carré, best-selling author of Cold War thrillers, is dead at 89

3. Asian-American man who was Navy Seal & doctor will join 2024 NASA moon mission

4. Russian government spies are behind a hacking campaign that has breached U.S. agencies and a top cyber firm

5. Army suspends battalion command team in South Korea amid racism investigation

6. DOD leaders brief Women, Peace, Security Program to Congressional caucus

7. Biden considers Samantha Power for USAID: report

8. China's policy banks are lending differently, not less

9. How to prepare for a national security crisis

10. Rebuilding, reaching out, and other lessons from Ronald Reagan

11. Five things to know about Lloyd Austin, Biden's Pentagon pick

12. 'Race matters': Austin advocates tout his historic candidacy in the face of other concerns

13. She stalked her daughter's killers across Mexico, one by one

14. Joseph Francescon named as Deputy Chief of Staff to Defense Secretary

15. Dutch intelligence says it's uncovered two Russian spies

16. Outsourcing disinformation

17. 18,000 organizations possibly compromised in massive supply-chain cyberattack

18. Russian hack was 'classic espionage' with stealthy, targeted tactics

19. U.S. Treasury, Commerce Depts. hacked through SolarWinds compromise

20. How to turn General Austin into Secretary Austin

 

1. Trump delays plan to hasten coronavirus vaccines for White House staff

New York Times · December 11, 2020

 

2. John le Carré, best-selling author of Cold War thrillers, is dead at 89

New York Times · Sarah Lyall · December 13, 2020

A sad day for all those who grew up reading his novels.

 

3. Asian-American man who was Navy Seal & doctor will join 2024 NASA moon mission

Mothership · Matthias Ang · December 10, 2020

An overachiever is understatement when describing Jonny Kim. What a great American, who should be an inspiration to all students growing up. I think the only thing left for him to accomplish after going to the moon will be to run for President.

 

4. Russian government spies are behind a hacking campaign that has breached U.S. agencies and a top cyber firm

Washington Post · Ellen Nakashima & Craig Timberg · December 13, 2020

Those pesky Russians.

 

5. Army suspends battalion command team in South Korea amid racism investigation

Army Times · Davis Winkie · December 13, 2020

The Korea team is exercising good leadership. However, if these allegations are substantiated, why do we still have relatively senior people (apparently a battalion command team) in our formations who think and act like this and think they can get away with this kind of behavior?

 

6. DOD leaders brief Women, Peace, Security Program to Congressional caucus

US Department of Defense · Jim Garamone · December 14, 2020

 

7. Biden considers Samantha Power for USAID: report

Fox News · Julia Musto · December 14, 2020

 

8. China's policy banks are lending differently, not less

Diplomat · Tristan Kenderdine · December 12, 2020

This is in response to the recent Financial Times article that assessed "a sharp drop-off in China policy bank lending to Belt and Road economies based on a Boston University Global Development Policy Center dataset on China's Overseas Development Finance."

One thing I have learned from listening to Chinese experts is that is hard to get reliable data out of China, which accounts for the varied assessments.

 

9. How to prepare for a national security crisis

Foreign Affairs · Paul B. Stares · December 11, 2020

Of course, the ideal is to prevent crises altogether. But, of course, our adversaries have a vote.

 

10. Rebuilding, reaching out, and other lessons from Ronald Reagan

War On the Rocks · Simon Miles · December 14, 2020

I always like to review President Reagan's top secret 8-page NSDD 32 U.S. National Security Strategy (of which there were only 36 original copies).

One of the important lessons I take from President Reagan is that he simultaneously addressed human rights while he conducted arms control negotiations with the USSR.

 

11. Five things to know about Lloyd Austin, Biden's Pentagon pick

Hill · Rebecca Kheel · December 13, 2020

The 5:

He and Biden formed a close bond.

He has had a trailblazing career.

His time at CENTCOM came with controversies.

He has ties to defense contractors.

He is media-shy.

 

12. 'Race matters': Austin advocates tout his historic candidacy in the face of other concerns

Defense News · Joe Gould · December 14, 2020

 

13. She stalked her daughter's killers across Mexico, one by one

New York Times · Azam Ahmed · December 13, 2020

What an incredible story.

 

14. Joseph Francescon named as Deputy Chief of Staff to Defense Secretary

Homeland Security Today · December 12, 2020

Hmm... we are fellow alums from the real Miami, though I think I graduated before he was even born!

 

15. Dutch intelligence says it's uncovered two Russian spies

Stars & Stripes · Mike Corder · December 10, 2020

 

16. Outsourcing disinformation

Lawfare · Shelby Grossman & Khadeja Ramali · December 13, 2020

 

17. 18,000 organizations possibly compromised in massive supply-chain cyberattack

Dark Reading · Jai Vijayan · December 14, 2020

Wow.

 

18. Russian hack was 'classic espionage' with stealthy, targeted tactics

Washington Post · Craig Timberg & Ellen Nakashima · December 14, 2020

 

19. U.S. Treasury, Commerce Depts. hacked through SolarWinds compromise

Krebs on Security · Brian Krebs · December 20, 2020

 

 20. How to Turn General Austin Into Secretary Austin

Defense One · Charles A. Stevenson · December 14, 2020

 

"The arms are fair, when the intent of bearing them is just."

- William Shakespeare

"Three men behind the enemy are worth 50 in front of him."

- Frederick the Great

"Writing is done by writing and the way to begin to write is to begin to write.  Lousy writing is better than no writing because the one can be improved but the other does not exist.  Of course, it is your privilege, if you wish, to become a fourth-rate premature has-been, looking no man in the eye and creeping shame-faced about the academic gutter, ridden by guilt and perfectionism, humiliating your old parents, disappointing your supporters, embarrassing your friends, a once promising scholar now gutless and defeated.  However, do not let me pressure you."

- John King Fairbank in a letter to his doctoral students, 1970s

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Joint Statement on the Human Rights Situation in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea

2. U.S. human rights commissioner expresses concern about leaflet ban

3. On Otto Warmbier's birthday, his legacy lives on

4. Will Trump continue his bromance with Kim Jong Un?

5. Ministry says ban on anti-Pyongyang leaflets 'least possible measure' to protect people in border regions

6. Pompeo says N. Korea a greater threat than Russia in cyber security

7. Assembly passes bill on banning cross-border launch of anti-Pyongyang leaflets

8. New law cuts NIS out of domestic politics for good

9. Biden administration advised to recognize Singapore statement

10.  New virus infections under 1,000 on fewer tests; efforts extended to find more potential cases

11. Joe Biden can build on Donald Trump's North Korea strategy

12. How US sanctions are pushing Iran, Venezuela, and North Korea closer together

13. What is more important: sending anti-North Korea leaflets or providing food and medical supplies for hungry children?

 

1. Joint Statement on the Human Rights Situation in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea

United States Mission to the United Nations · December 11, 2020

It is very disappointing that South Korea did not sign onto this statement. Everyone, to include especially the ROK, needs to take a human rights up front approach. Avoiding discussion of human rights is not going to change North Korean behavior and cooperate on North-South engagement or conduct substantive  denuclearization negotiations.

 

2. U.S. human rights commissioner expresses concern about leaflet ban

Dong-A Ilbo · lightee@donga.com · December 11, 2020

I think the ROK government is making a huge mistake in trying to pass this law. One of the major human rights abuses identified in the UN Commission of Inquiry in 2014 is the lack of information allowed to reach the Korean people living in the North. But this is wrong on multiple levels. First it is morally outrageous. The escapees from the North risked their lives to escape to a free and democratic country and their right to expression and to help their suffering brothers and sisters will be suppressed if this law is passed. Second the ROK government is succumbing to Kim Yo-Jong's obvious blackmail diplomacy.  This makes the ROK government appear weak and will undermine all future negotiating and engagement efforts

This will not improve relations whatsoever. The regime will interpret this as ROK weakness and an example of successful execution of the regime's political warfare strategy that includes blackmail diplomacy (the use of increased tension and provocations to gain political and economic concessions).  We should keep in mind why the regime wants to prevent outside information from getting to the Korean people in the North. The regime's greatest fear is not a military attack from the ROK/US alliance but resistance from within. The greatest threat to the regime is the Korean people in the North, armed with information—in particular, information about the superiority of the South, economically, politically, culturally, and militarily. The regime must prevent this kind of information from reaching the people and it is has deigned its entire society and system of rule to isolate the Korean people and keep them as ignorant as possible, preventing them from learning the truth not only about the outside world, their plight, and the human rights they are entitled to but are denied by the regime for the sole reason of keeping itself in power.

It is naive to believe that this law will improve relations with the North. It is based on the misguided and erroneous assumption that Kim Jong-Un somehow shares the Moon administration's vision of peace and reconciliation. Nothing could be further from the truth and it is this assumption that actually puts the Korean people of the South and the ROK/US alliance in danger. This action can only be described by one word that has always led to failure in national security and international relations: appeasement.

The Korean people in the South need to raise their voices and tell the Moon administration to stop contributing to the human rights abuses of the Korean people in the North, and the ROK government (and international community) must take all possible actions to get information into North Korea.

 

3. On Otto Warmbier's birthday, his legacy lives on

Fox News · Eric Shawn · December 13, 2020

Never forget the Kim family regime murdered Otto Warmbier.

 

4. Will Trump continue his bromance with Kim Jong Un?

Daily Beast · Donald Kirk · December 14, 2020

 

5. Ministry says ban on anti-Pyongyang leaflets 'least possible measure' to protect people in border regions

Yonhap News Agency · 고병준 · December 14, 2020

This is BS. You do not sacrifice your values or deny the basic rights of your citizens or stop helping the suffering people of the North because of North Korean threats. You institute better defense and protect your people and also make it known to the regime that any attack on South Korea will be met with a decisive response.

Appeasement does not work, and this law is an action of appeasement that will harm the Korean people of both South and North Korea.

 

6. Pompeo says N. Korea a greater threat than Russia in cyber security

Yonhap News Agency · 변덕근 · December 15, 2020

But Russia just conducted one of the largest cyber-attacks against US government agencies…? All our adversaries are significant cyber threats and we minimize or ignore them at our peril.

 

7. Assembly passes bill on banning cross-border launch of anti-Pyongyang leaflets

Yonhap News Agency · 김수연 · December 14, 2020

Very disappointing.

 

8. New law cuts NIS out of domestic politics for good

Korea Joong Ang Daily · Shim Kyu-Seok · December 14, 2020

Yes, the National Intelligence Service should have no role in domestic politics.

 

9. Biden administration advised to recognize Singapore statement

Korea Times · Kang Seung-woo · December 10, 2020

And not just the Singapore statement but also the Panmunjom declaration for peace between North and South, which called for the implementation of all previous agreements, the two most important being the ones from 1991-1992 below.

Here are the four points of the Singapore Statement:

1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new U.S.-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.

2. The United States and the DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.

We need to understand how the regime views the Singapore statement and how it has been trying to exploit it to support its political warfare strategy and long con to get sanctions relief and keep the nuclear program in some form.

Key “agreement” (from the perspective of the North): denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula

1. Change relationship - Declaration of the end of the war  (end of hostile US policy - i.e., Peace regime)

2. Sanctions relief (permanent removal)

3. Denuclearization of the South (end of alliance, removal of troops, end of nuclear umbrella over ROK and Japan)

4. Then negotiate dismantlement of the North’s and ICBM programs

In Short:

NK: change relationship, build trust , denuclearize

US: denuclearize, build trust, change relationship

Agreement on Reconciliation, Non-Aggression, and Exchanges and Cooperation between South and North Korea

1992 Joint Declaration of the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula

 

10. New virus infections under 1,000 on fewer tests; efforts extended to find more potential cases

Yonhap News Agency · 강윤승 · December 14, 2020

Ah.. the old reduce the number of cases by reducing the number of tests method.

 

11. Joe Biden can build on Donald Trump's North Korea strategy

National Interest · Doug Bandow · December 13, 2020

The Biden administration is going to move forward, not backward, on North Korea. Trump changed the conditions and the landscape, and the Biden team can build on that.

 

12. How US sanctions are pushing Iran, Venezuela, and North Korea closer together

Diplomat · Jason Bartlett & Emily Jin · December 12, 2020

We have said we would provide COVID aid to North Korea back in March. POTUS and SECSTATE have both made statements offering help.  Kim Jong-un has chosen not to accept it. 

The problem with the proposal in this article is it does not take into account either the nature of these regimes or their political warfare strategies. It also overlooks the fact that we care more about the humanitarian suffering of affected people than these regimes do. Lastly, even if they were to accept COVID aid, it would not lead to better relations or changed behavior by these regimes. It is just not in their nature.

 

13. What is more important: sending anti-North Korea leaflets or providing food and medical supplies for hungry children?

Korea Herald · December 13, 2020

They are not mutually exclusive. This is a false equivalency. With all due respect to Representative Song, this argument does not take into account the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime.

 

"The arms are fair, when the intent of bearing them is just."

- William Shakespeare

"Three men behind the enemy are worth 50 in front of him."

- Frederick the Great

"Writing is done by writing and the way to begin to write is to begin to write.  Lousy writing is better than no writing because the one can be improved but the other does not exist.  Of course, it is your privilege, if you wish, to become a fourth-rate premature has-been, looking no man in the eye and creeping shame-faced about the academic gutter, ridden by guilt and perfectionism, humiliating your old parents, disappointing your supporters, embarrassing your friends, a once promising scholar now gutless and defeated.  However, do not let me pressure you."

- John King Fairbank in a letter to his doctoral students, 1970s

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Gen. Mark Milley: The Biggest Security Challenges for the U.S.

2. Stop treating vets as untrustworthy, second-class citizens in the SecDef debate by Charlie Dunlap, J.D.

3. Analysis | What we know about Rep. Eric Swalwell's ties to an alleged Chinese spy

4. HASC Chair Smith Calls For New National Defense Strategy, Nuclear Policy Review 

5. War Powers: What Are They Good For?

6. China's rise exposes the 'myth' of the liberal global order

7. How Hawaii Became A Training Ground For The Indonesian Military

8. Mercenaries on the Battlefield: What Legal Advisors Must Know 

9. Combatting Terrorism Amid The Pandemic

10. 'US still the target': Indonesia's arrest of Jemaah Islamiah terrorist leader reveals thousands of recruits

11. Abu Sayyaf sub-leader falls, 2 more surrender

12. Former Special Forces Officer Warns of Color Revolution Tactics Used Against Trump

 

 

1.Gen. Mark Milley: The Biggest Security Challenges for the U.S.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/gen-mark-milley-the-biggest-security-challenges-for-the-u-s-11607824353? – 13 December 2020

I agree the NDS is a good document and I hope key elements of it are incorporated into a Biden Administration update.  I am glad the CJCS did not talk about bringing forward stationed troops home as he did recently.  I think that idea goes against both our National Security and National Defense Strategies. 

 

2. Stop treating vets as untrustworthy, second-class citizens in the SecDef debate by Charlie Dunlap, J.D.

sites.duke.edu · by Charlie Dunlap, J.D. · December 9, 2020

Conclusion:

I don't think we need statutory bars for persons who must be personally nominated by the President and, further, clear Senate confirmation.

But if we do, let's not start with bans targeting those honorable Americans who put on a uniform to go in harms' way prepared to lay down their lives to defend this country and its Constitution.

 

3. Analysis | What we know about Rep. Eric Swalwell's ties to an alleged Chinese spy

The Washington Post · December 11, 2020

A useful summary of the situation.

I have not seen this widely reported:  

What we know about how Swalwell and Fang interacted on substance: Axios reports that U.S. officials don't think Fang ever got classified information as she cozied up to politicians, including from Swalwell. He is not accused of any wrongdoing. After U.S. intelligence officials briefed him in 2015 on their concerns about Fang, he cut off ties with her. Swalwell said in a statement to Axios this week that he provided information to the FBI about her and that he hasn't interacted with her in six years. Fang has left the country.

We also know that top members of Congress from both parties got briefed by intelligence officials in 2015 about suspected Chinese spies trying to infiltrate Congress.

 

4. HASC Chair Smith Calls For New National Defense Strategy, Nuclear Policy Review 

news.usni.org · by John Grady · December 11, 2020

I do not think we will see a new NDS for at least a year if not more.  I think the current one is sound and when the next strategy is written I hope it retains many of the key and important concepts in the current strategy.

 

5. War Powers: What Are They Good For?

cnas.org - By Richard Fontaine, Loren DeJonge Schulman and Stephen Tankel

The entire paper can be accessed here: https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/war-powers-what-are-they-good-for

Conclusion: Much of the discourse these days regarding the use of military force focuses on ending the "forever wars," and the need for Congress to undertake AUMF reform. Yet, as this report illustrates, such reform is just one piece of a larger puzzle when it comes to regulating the use of force. Members of Congress and staffers should not consider the legislative options available to them in isolation of one another. They will need to take into account potential tradeoffs, but must also look for opportunities to stitch together different approaches in order to reclaim Article I authority. Perhaps most important, the small number of lawmakers and staff motivated by these issues will need to expand the community of interest that exists for exercising this authority if they have any hope of Congress playing the role envisioned for it in the Constitution.

War Powers: What Are They Good For?

Four Legislative Strategies to Influence the Use of Force

 

6. China's rise exposes the 'myth' of the liberal global order

ABC.net.au · December 12, 2020

Excerpts:

We are in a world with no easy choices, and utopian belief in universal liberalism is not the answer. Despite wishing it so, China has not become like the West. It has grown richer, stronger and more authoritarian.

It has not been on the wrong side of history.

It is one of the liberal fantasies that we can vanquish history. The late historian Eric Hobsbawm wrote of the 20th century that "the historical memory was no longer alive".

Young people, Hobsbawm said, grow up in a "permanent present". But in the late 1980s and early 1990s "an era in world history ended, and a new one began".

China and Russia have long, hard memories. History has never died there.

Hobsbawm concluded his study of the 20th century, The Age of Extremes, with a warning: we may not know where we are going, but history has brought us to this point.

He said we cannot prolong the past: if we do we will fail. We must change, he said, or "the alternative to a changed society is darkness".

 

7. How Hawaii Became A Training Ground For The Indonesian Military

civilbeat.org · by Kevin Knodell · December 11, 2020

I had no idea about this training in Hawaii.

 

8. Mercenaries on the Battlefield: What Legal Advisors Must Know 

lieber.westpoint.edu · by Jeffrey S. Thurnher · December 2, 2020

Conclusion: Mercenaries will play a role in future conflicts as they provide the legal ambiguity America's adversaries seek in conflict. To prepare for future combat, legal professionals must remain attentive to these emerging participants of war. Judge advocates must also be vigilant about identifying the legal implications associated with mercenaries for their commanders.

 

9. Combatting Terrorism Amid The Pandemic

theaseanpost.com – by Muhammad Faizal Abdul Rahman – 12 December 2020

 

10. 'US still the target': Indonesia's arrest of Jemaah Islamiah terrorist leader reveals thousands of recruits

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3113648/us-still-target-indonesias-arrest-jemaah-islamiah-terrorist - by Amy Chew – 12 December 2020

We cannot neglect the terrorist threat in Southeast Asia.

 

11. Abu Sayyaf sub-leader falls, 2 more surrender

philstar.com · by Emmanuel Tupas

 

12. Former Special Forces Officer Warns of Color Revolution Tactics Used Against Trump

ntd.com · by GQ Pan and Joshua Philipp · December 11, 2020

These kinds of reports are troubling.  I think this former Special Forces Officer, like many, is ill-informed about the Color revolutions particularly the Orange Revolution in Ukraine.

For those with an interest in understanding "color revolutions" I recommend the Casebook from the Assessment Revolution and Insurgent Strategies project. 

The case study of the Orange Revolution in Ukraine begins on page 801 at this link: https://www.soc.mil/ARIS/books/pdf/CasebookV2S.pdf

Synopsis:
The Orange revolution took place during the 2004 presidential election in Ukraine and involved the mass mobilization of the population and the unification of key leaders and organizations in order to prevent a fraudulent election.  The promotion of nonviolent civil disobedience, as well as embracing constitutional and institutional judicial and legislative structures within Ukraine, ensure the successful completion of a democratic electoral process.

 

 

"When you reach the end of your rope, tie a knot in it and hang on."

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

 

"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence." 

- John Adams

 

"There is simple ignorance, which is the source of lighter offenses,

and double ignorance, which is accompanied by a conceit of wisdom;

and he who is under the influence of the latter fancies that

he knows all about matters of which he knows nothing.

-Plato

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. New virus cases hit record high of 950; strain on medical system feared to grow (South Korea)

2. USFK tightens COVID-19 restrictions in greater Seoul area

3. First step made to take over Yongsan military base from USFK

4. Coronavirus: North Korea accused of using COVID to crack down on human rights

5. U.S. secondary sanctions hurting North Korea, defector says

6. South Korea deploys military and builds wards in shipping containers to tackle new Covid-19 outbreak

7. Twenty Years a-Stagnating - The Lost Opportunity of Britain's Relationship With the DPRK

8. People's Groups and Patterns in Neighborhood Surveillance: Another Tool in State Control Over Daily Life

9. 'Assassins': How Kim Jong-nam's murder served as Phase 1 of Kim jong-un's plan to instill loyalty in North Korea

10. S Korea's Covid success story sunk by third wave

11. Why Biden shouldn't try to denuclearize North Korea

12. U.S. reaffirms commitment to complete denuclearization of N. Korea: State Dept.

13. 'Assassins' Review: Duped Into an International Murder Plot

 

 

1. New virus cases hit record high of 950; strain on medical system feared to grow (South Korea)

en.yna.co.kr · by 유지호 · December 12, 2020

 

2. USFK tightens COVID-19 restrictions in greater Seoul area

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · December 11, 2020

Here is some interesting data and perspective from the Camp Humphrey's Commander:

Team - Just want to reiterate one more time so all are tracking!! ZERO transmissions from USFK (ZERO) to Host nation. 0

NUMBERS peninsula wide are less than 30. THIRTY!! for 10+ Months. (Excluding Fly Ins) 

Camp Humphreys is under 15 - SERIOUS and 2 cases in last 8 months! TWO

@USAGHumphreys

I think USFK has set the US military standard for addressing the pandemic. You have to fight through it to be "ready to fight tonight."

 

3. First step made to take over Yongsan military base from USFK

donga.com – by Kyu-Jin Shin - 12 December 2020

This is the right thing to do and we have to get on with it.  But it still brings feelings of nostalgia and like losing my second hometown since I spent many years living, working, and visiting there over the last 4 decades.

Camp Kim was the home of the Special Operations Command-Korea (SOCKOR) for about 3 decades (after being housed in a building on the main compound next to the old 8th Army HQ that was once a Japanese bath house and latrine).  In the early 1990's it moved into a building on Camp Kim that was once the Japanese Army morgue and rumored to be the site of biological warfare experiments during the colonial period.  Just some trivia for the day.

 

4. Coronavirus: North Korea accused of using COVID to crack down on human rights

DW · 12 December 2020

There should be no doubt the regime is exploiting the COVID crisis to suppress resistance and oppress the Korean people of the north in order to keep the Kim family regime in power.

Excerpt: "Seven UNSC members - Germany, Belgium, Dominican Republic, Estonia, France, the UK and the US, along with Japan"

Note: South Korea did not sign on to the joint statement. 

 

5. U.S. secondary sanctions hurting North Korea, defector says

upi.com – Elizabeth Shim – 11 December 2020

When our good friend Ri Jong-ho speaks I listen.

Excerpt: "The former North Korean official said secondary sanctions have raised the pressure on Pyongyang and its foreign enablers, but more needs to be done."

 

6. South Korea deploys military and builds wards in shipping containers to tackle new Covid-19 outbreak

The Telegraph · by Jennifer Rigby

This is not a war that can be won outright with a quick victory.  The virus is not going to raise the white flag and surrender and will not be defeated as long as it can continue to mutate and most importantly find hosts for transmission and survival.  This is a continuous fight until the vaccination effects can be realized around the world.

 

7. Twenty Years a-Stagnating - The Lost Opportunity of Britain's Relationship With the DPRK

38north.org · by James E. Hoare · December 11, 2020

Do not put all the blame on the UK.  Kim Jong-un and his father bear some responsibility.

 

8. People's Groups and Patterns in Neighborhood Surveillance: Another Tool in State Control Over Daily Life

38north.org · by Darcie Draudt · December 10, 2020

It is very important to understand the nature and operations of these "people's groups."  From an information and influence activities perspective to planning, preparation, and educating for the unification process it is imperative to understand the influence of the inminban.

 

9. 'Assassins': How Kim Jong-nam's murder served as Phase 1 of Kim jong-un's plan to instill loyalty in North Korea

meaww.com – by Neetha K – 11 December 2020

The movie was supposedly released yesterday.  I have not yet found a theater.

Here is a 22 minute interview with the director, Ryan White. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4joi7z6UOA. This is a very interesting interview.

 

10. S Korea's Covid success story sunk by third wave

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · December 11, 2020

Seoul successfully managed the first two waves.  This terrible third wave does not mean South Korea has failed.  It only illustrates how dangerous and complex this pandemic is.

 

11. Why Biden shouldn't try to denuclearize North Korea

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · December 11, 2020

I have long criticized both Seoul and Washington for being duped by north Korea into calling for the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula rather than north Korea (even if there are definitely no nuclear weapons anywhere on the Korean peninsula since the US unilaterally and without any reciprocity from the north, removed them).  Kim Jong-un accepted this construct because it plays into his political warfare strategy.  His definition of a nuclearized South is the presence of US forces and the access that brings to US strategic assets.  So his concepted of denuclearization is an end to the ROK/US alliance and US troops off the peninsula. Coincidentally, that is also the real security guarantee he demands.  He does not care about end of war declarations or written or verbal promises.  He must have US troops off the peninsula to be successful.

However, I can accept the concept of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula in this respect: The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people.  In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).  So, yes, must seek denuclearization but the path to denuclearization is through resolution of the "Korea question" or unification. 

 

12. U.S. reaffirms commitment to complete denuclearization of N. Korea: State Dept.

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · December 12, 2020

Not stated though hopefully implied: through resolution of the "Korea question."

I know that restaurant!!

 

13. 'Assassins' Review: Duped Into an International Murder Plot

The New York Times · December 10, 2020

Trailer at the link. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/movies/assassins-review.html?

I hope this makes it to one of the streaming services soon. The interview with the director was fascinating. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4joi7z6UOA

 

 

"When you reach the end of your rope, tie a knot in it and hang on."

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

 

"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence." 

- John Adams

 

"There is simple ignorance, which is the source of lighter offenses,

and double ignorance, which is accompanied by a conceit of wisdom;

and he who is under the influence of the latter fancies that

he knows all about matters of which he knows nothing.

-Plato

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. China launches ‘gray-zone’ warfare to subdue Taiwan

2. Confirm Austin, but retire Milley

3. How China’s Communist Party trains foreign politicians

4. The U.S. can’t check China alone

5. The real reason Biden’s pick for Pentagon chief is the wrong choice

6. Pentagon weighs sharp drawback in support for C.I.A.

7. Milley is right - the U.S. should reevaluate its military commitments

8. Trump signs order to 'rebrand' US foreign assistance

9. Executive Order on Rebranding United States Foreign Assistance to Advance American Influence

10. Justices rule Muslim men can sue FBI agents over no-fly list

11. What the hell was Biden thinking with his wildly out-of-touch choice for Veterans Affairs Secretary?

12. The voice of which America?

13. Global trade is booming - just without the U.S.

14. U.S. sanctions accused human rights abusers in several countries

15. The White House is making big changes at the Pentagon - but Biden can reverse them

16. The future of the U.S. dollar

17. China detains Bloomberg News staffer in national security investigation

18. Civilian control of the military is vital

19. Coercion and competition: evaluating American options for overcoming adversaries and avoiding war

20. Global special operations: advising and mentoring in the Zoom era

 

1. China launches ‘gray-zone’ warfare to subdue Taiwan

Reuters · Yimou Lee, David Lague, & Ben Blanchard · December 10, 2020

A very comprehensive report from Reuters.

 

2. Confirm Austin, but retire Milley

Defense One · Douglas Ollivant · December 10, 2020

Wow. Doug makes an interesting argument here.  But with this proposal we would have a new SECDEF and a new CJCS at the same time.

 

3. How China’s Communist Party trains foreign politicians

Economist · December 10, 2020

Of course, the Chinese will counter and say the US has similar programs with the National Endowment for Democracy, State's Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, and USAID's Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance programs.

 

4. The U.S. can’t check China alone

Foreign Affairs · Odd Arne Westad · December 10, 2020

A strong critique of the China report from State's Policy Planning staff.

 

5. The real reason Biden’s pick for Pentagon chief is the wrong choice

Washington Post · Oriana Skylar Mastro · December 9, 2020

Dr. Mastro assesses this from a Chinese and gender perspective.

 

6. Pentagon weighs sharp drawback in support for C.I.A.

New York Times · Julian E. Barnes & Eric Schmitt · December 10, 2020

How does this help US national security? DOD must show how this will improve our ability to support the NSS and execute the National Defense Strategy. What is the real intent of this action?

We should be moving to a more OSS-like relationship rather than separating and stove-piping intelligence and special operations.

 

7. Milley is right - the U.S. should reevaluate its military commitments

Defense News · Dan DePetris · December 10, 2020

Yes, we should continually assess our military posture in support of our national security and national defense strategies. I wonder if the CJCS is anticipating some major changes to the NSS and NDS. However, senior leaders should not telegraph their desired outcome. I really fear this kind of thinking will come back to haunt us when we withdraw permanently based forces. As an infantryman, the CJCS should keep in mind a basic rule of patrolling: never give up the high ground. Our bases and alliance structure around the world is the high ground for our ability to project power and support national security. We need to think about how to best defend forward.

 

8. Trump signs order to 'rebrand' US foreign assistance

ABC News · Matthew Lee · December 10, 2020

The actual logo has not been determined.

A feel-good action. Have we assessed this from an information and influence activities perspective?  I know it will be counterintuitive in some situations, but it might be useful to temper perceived American arrogance and operate more along the lines of the quiet professional. Of course, this can create the impression that we are only providing foreign assistance to enhance our reputation rather than to support our values and principles as well as doing humanitarian work because it is the right thing to do.  This will make many of us feel good about what we are doing. but we should keep in mind we do not undertake these actions to make us feel (or look) good.

This is a similar line of effort to those who think VOA, etc. should only be American cheerleaders instead of being real, independent news organizations that provide real news to those in denied areas and who only have access to propaganda.

I wonder who is responsible for developing and deciding on the logo?

 

9. Executive Order on Rebranding United States Foreign Assistance to Advance American Influence

White House · December 10, 2020

Again, is this a feel-good action? Are we tying the hands of those who have to orchestrate campaigns and execute strategy? Does one size fit all?

 

10. Justices rule Muslim men can sue FBI agents over no-fly list

AP · Mark Sherman · December 10, 2020

The Supreme Court unanimously rules on law and not on political agendas.

 

11. What the hell was Biden thinking with his wildly out-of-touch choice for Veterans Affairs Secretary?

Daily Beast · Paul Rieckhoff · December 10, 2020

A veteran leader speaks out with a scathing critique.

 

12. The voice of which America?

Jewish News Syndicate · Juliana Geran Pilon · December 10, 2020

This article really challenges the mission and intent of Voice of America. 

Putting aside all the controversy about leadership and bureaucratic infighting and organizational issues, the fundamental question is should VOA be a cheerleader for America (in particular, the current administration) or should it be committed to reporting the news to those in denied areas who are only exposed to propaganda from their authoritarian rulers? 

VOA, RFA, et al, are not news organizations that report news to make us feel good. We know from decades of experience that their reporting is trusted by those in denied areas, because they report all the news to include news that includes criticism of the US. The most important projection of US values and universal human rights is freedom of the press which means reporting of news, good and bad. 

So, the current leadership of the USAGM wants VOA ,et al,  to be cheerleaders for the current administration. Will it want it to be a cheerleader for the next administration and only paint that administration is a positive light? Do we think that will really advance US interests?

 

13. Global trade is booming - just without the U.S.

Washington Post · Fareed Zakaria · December 10, 2020

 

14. U.S. sanctions accused human rights abusers in several countries

Wall Street Journal · Ian Talley · December 10, 2020

I suppose this is in honor of yesterday's 70th anniversary of the UN's Universal Declaration of Human Rights.  For those who have never read the declaration, the 30 articles are here.

Here are the first three:

Article 1. All human beings are born free and equal in dignity and rights. They are endowed with reason and conscience and should act towards one another in a spirit of brotherhood.

Article 2. Everyone is entitled to all the rights and freedoms set forth in this Declaration, without distinction of any kind, such as race, colour, sex, language, religion, political or other opinion, national or social origin, property, birth or other status. Furthermore, no distinction shall be made on the basis of the political, jurisdictional or international status of the country or territory to which a person belongs, whether it be independent, trust, non-self-governing or under any other limitation of sovereignty.

Article 3. Everyone has the right to life, liberty and security of person.

 

15. The White House is making big changes at the Pentagon - but Biden can reverse them

Politico · Lara Seligman · December 11, 2020

Just do not undo Sec 922 on ASD SO/LIC and the Irregular Warfare annex to the NDS. :-)

 

16. The future of the U.S. dollar

Seeking Alpha · WWS Swiss Financial Consulting, SA · December 10, 2020

This is one of the most important national security issues.

 

17. China detains Bloomberg News staffer in national security investigation

Washington Post · Eva Dou · December 11, 2020

Journalists in China are at risk.

 

18. Civilian control of the military is vital

New York Times · Editorial Board · December 10, 2020

The Biden administration is not getting a pass from the NY Times, at least not on this issue.

And we do not get a pass either

 

19. Coercion and competition: evaluating American options for overcoming adversaries and avoiding war

Modern War Institute · Max Margulies · December 10, 2020

I hope many of the concepts and ideas in the NSS and NDS are carried forward into the next administration.

 

20. Global special operations: advising and mentoring in the Zoom era

Clearance Jobs · Jason Criss Howk · December 8, 2020

 

“Manners are of more importance than laws. Upon them, in a great measure, the laws depend.”

- Edmund Burke, First Letter on a Regicide Peace (1796)

"It was indicative of the U.S. Army's basic misunderstanding of what Special Forces really are, that the official Lineage of Special Forces is traced back to the First Special Service Force. The OSS was a much more legitimate ancestor of today's Green Berets but the problem with U.S. Army recognition of that fact is a syndrome that has wide implications. OSS was a hybrid with a strong political and intelligence flavor."

- LTG (USA-ret.) William P. Yarborough, Southern Pines, NC, December 1982

"An opinion can be argued with; a conviction is best shot."

- T.E. Lawrence

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. South Korean military preparedness in the shadow of the pandemic

2. N. Korea says no confirmed cases of coronavirus as of early Dec.: WHO

3. USFK service members may be first in Korea vaccinated for COVID-19

4. S. Korea 'very encouraged' by signs from Biden administration: Kang

5. Commentary: North Korea braces itself for one of its toughest winters ever

6. Trump's North Korea envoy says Pyongyang 'squandered' chance for historic nuclear deal

7. U.S. sanctions companies helping North Korea export illegal coal

8. Yongsan military base back in Korean hands in 138 years

9. Dismantlement of Yongbyon complex should not be underrated: US expert

10. N. Korea is planning an event to glorify the Eighth Party Congress in January

11. The dangerous dance of dealing with a nuclear North Korea

12. South Korea accelerates deployment of unmanned systems

13. U.S. spy plane flies from South Korea into Taiwanese air space

14. 'Korea's democracy in crisis'

15. The Biden Administration and North Korea

16. Kim Yo Jong: what we know about Kim Jong Un’s sister and her role in North Korea

17. ‘Is this Seoul, or Pyongyang?’: in Moon’s Korea, defectors from North face jail for propaganda fliers

18. Left behind: North Korean coalmines fueled by South's POWs

19. Experts weigh in on how Biden should approach North Korea

20. Careless talk costs lives: a North Korean execution

21. 'Assassins': traitor or innocent? A look at the mysterious deaths in North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un's family

 

1. South Korean military preparedness in the shadow of the pandemic

Institute for Securty & Development Policy · In-bum Chun · December 2020

From our good friend, LTG (RET) Chun In-bum.

 

2. N. Korea says no confirmed cases of coronavirus as of early Dec.: WHO

Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · December 11, 2020

The WHO has no way to verify these numbers and can only report what North Korea tells it.

 

3. USFK service members may be first in Korea vaccinated for COVID-19

Korea Times · Do Je-hae · December 10, 2020

 

4.  S. Korea ‘very encouraged’ by signs from Biden administration: Kang

Yonhap News Agency · 변덕근 · December 11, 2020

I think Minister Kang might be mistaken if she believes the Biden administration will provide sanctions relief and concessions to the North and support the South's naive engagement plans. Yes, there will be good coordination and collaboration, but I am hoping the first thing the Biden administration will do with South Korea is conduct an alliance policy and strategy assessment and make sure ROK and US assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime are sufficiently aligned.

 

5. Commentary: North Korea braces itself for one of its toughest winters ever

Channel News Asia · Gabriela Bernal · December 11, 2020

Sadly, bad times are coming for the Korean people living in the North. It could be worse than the. Arduous march of the great famine of 1994-1996.

 

6. Trump’s North Korea envoy says Pyongyang ‘squandered’ chance for historic nuclear deal

Washington Times · Guy Taylor · December 10, 2020

Yes, the responsibility lies entirely with Kim Jong-Un. Squandering is an apt description.

 

7. U.S. sanctions companies helping North Korea export illegal coal

FDD · Mathew Ha · December 10, 2020

My colleague, Mathew Ha, explains the latest sanctions enforcement action.

 

8. Yongsan military base back in Korean hands in 138 years

Korea Times · Yi Whan-woo · December 11, 2020

The headline is a little misleading. Part of Yongsan Garrison has been returned - 2 sports fields. There is still a way to go for the entire installation.

 

9. Dismantlement of Yongbyon complex should not be underrated: US expert

Korea Herald · Yonhap · December 11, 2020

Yes, but... There is much more to the regime's nuclear program than Yongbyon. We can be sure that when the regime really does dismantle Yongbyon it will be because it is no longer needed, and they have other facilities that can do what is done there.

 

10. N. Korea is planning an event to glorify the Eighth Party Congress in January

Daily NK · Ha Yoon Ah · December 11, 2020

The regime's strength lies in parades, parties, events, and celebrations. To riff on Murphy's laws - no parade ready force has ever passed combat and no combat ready force has ever passed parades!

 

11. The dangerous dance of dealing with a nuclear North Korea

Hill · Joseph R. DeTrani · December 10, 2020

But is it a two-step, waltz, or polka?

 

12. South Korea accelerates deployment of unmanned systems

Defense News · Brian Kim · December 10, 2020

Some interesting innovation here.

 

13. U.S. spy plane flies from South Korea into Taiwanese air space

UPI · Elizabeth Shim · December 10, 2020

Strategic flexibility of Korea-based US assets?

 

14. 'Korea's democracy in crisis'

Korea Times · Jung Da-min · December 10, 2020

Growing public criticism of Korean domestic politics.

 

15. The Biden Administration and North Korea

Diplomat · Isozaki Atsuhito · December 10, 2020

A view from Japan.

 

16. Kim Yo Jong: what we know about Kim Jong Un’s sister and her role in North Korea

Wall Street Journal · Andrew Jeong · December 9, 2020

This was my Twitter comment to someone who said, "Let's not forget who she is:"

She is part of the evilest regime in the modern era, which is responsible for some of the most horrendous crimes against humanity and human rights abuses against the Korean people living in the North. Pure evil. Let us never forget that.

 

17. ‘Is this Seoul, or Pyongyang?’: in Moon’s Korea, defectors from North face jail for propaganda fliers

South China Morning Post · John Power · December 11, 2020

The ROK government is making a huge mistake. I hope the Moon administration will reconsider this.

 

18. Left behind: North Korean coalmines fueled by South's POWs

Barron's · Sunghee Hwang · December 10, 2020

Another sad story illustrating the evil nature of the Kim family regime.

 

19. Experts weigh in on how Biden should approach North Korea

UPI · Thomas Maresca · December 10, 2020

 

20. Careless talk costs lives: a North Korean execution

24 Matins · Sunghee Hwang · December 11, 2020

I cannot emphasize this enough: the root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia-like, crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

 

21. 'Assassins': traitor or innocent? A look at the mysterious deaths in North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un's family

MEAWW · Priyanka Sundar · December 10, 2020

I still have not seen any information on when and where this film will be shown in the US.

 

“Manners are of more importance than laws. Upon them, in a great measure, the laws depend.”

- Edmund Burke, First Letter on a Regicide Peace (1796)

"It was indicative of the U.S. Army's basic misunderstanding of what Special Forces really are, that the official Lineage of Special Forces is traced back to the First Special Service Force. The OSS was a much more legitimate ancestor of today's Green Berets but the problem with U.S. Army recognition of that fact is a syndrome that has wide implications. OSS was a hybrid with a strong political and intelligence flavor."

- LTG (USA-ret.) William P. Yarborough, Southern Pines, NC, December 1982

"An opinion can be argued with; a conviction is best shot."

- T.E. Lawrence