When it comes to a state fighting a nonstate enemy, there is a widespread impression the state is doomed to fail.

In 1968, Robert F. Kennedy concluded that victory in Vietnam was "probably beyond our grasp," and called for a peaceful settlement. In 1983, the analyst Shahram Chubin wrote that the Soviets in Afghanistan were embroiled in an "unwinnable war." In 1992, US officials shied away from involvement in Bosnia, fearing entanglement in a centuries-old conflict. In 2002, retired US Gen. Wesley Clark portrayed the American effort in Afghanistan as unwinnable. In 2004, President George W. Bush said of the war on terror, "I don't think you can win it." In 2007, the Winograd Commission deemed Israel's war against Hezbollah unwinnable.

More than any other recent war, the allied forces' effort in Iraq was seen as a certain defeat, especially in the 2004-06 period. Former Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger, former British minister Tony Benn, and former US special envoy James Dobbins all called it unwinnable. The Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group Report echoed this view. Military analyst David Hackworth, among others, explicitly compared Iraq to Vietnam: "As with Vietnam, the Iraqi tar pit was oh-so-easy to sink into, but appears to be just as tough to exit."

The list of "unwinnable wars" goes on and includes, for example, the counterinsurgencies in Sri Lanka and Nepal. "Underlying all these analyses," notes Yaakov Amidror, a retired Israeli major general, is the assumption "that counterinsurgency campaigns necessarily turn into protracted conflicts that will inevitably lose political support."

Gen. Amidror, however, disagrees with this assessment. In a recent study published by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, "Winning Counterinsurgency War: The Israeli Experience," he convincingly argues that states can beat nonstate actors.

More at The Washington Times.

He Came, He Cut Deals, He (May) Conquer

Iraq still divides Democrats and Republicans like no other issue, as the campaign rhetoric of both parties makes abundantly clear. Liberals and conservatives can now more or less agree that Iraq is a much, much safer country than it was 18 months ago. But each side is peddling its own story about Iraq's extraordinary turnaround -- and both are wrong.

Many conservatives believe that the 2007 "surge" in US troop levels directly produced the decline in Iraqi violence. Meanwhile, liberals argue that Iraq's warring Shiites and Sunnis spontaneously decided -- for their own internal reasons, unrelated to the surge -- to stop fighting. As is so often true of Washington debates, these arguments bear little relation to the reality of how Iraq actually pulled out of its death spiral, which is far more interesting than either partisan yarn. There was no single silver bullet, but rather a multifaceted strategy crafted and carried out by those in Baghdad -- not, despite recent claims, in Washington.

I came to this conclusion after reporting in Iraq for a total of 10 months since 2003 and after extensive interviews with Iraqi and US leaders, as well as with troops in the most violent neighborhoods of greater Baghdad, the epicenter of the conflict. My biggest question was my simplest: How did Gen. David H. Petraeus do it?

My answer? Bottom line, for the first time since the war began, a US leader decided to address the political motivations of the Iraqi combatants. Petraeus convened a study group that shrewdly analyzed the raging sectarian conflict, then came up with what he called "the Anaconda strategy" to address the underlying dynamic.

More at The Washington Post.

Congrats to Amy and Jules!

When I retired from the Army in June, my comrades in arms laughed at my summer vacation plans: another August in Iraq.

But I had unfinished business...

Everyone I talked to, Iraqis and Americans alike, stressed that the security gains are fragile and reversible; there were two car bombs and a suicide vest attack in Mosul three days after our visit. But the improvements in Baghdad and Basra are striking, with increasingly competent Iraqi security forces on every street corner -- although they will continue to need our advice and assistance for some years to come.

I am no cheerleader for the war in Iraq. We've made horrible mistakes that cost the lives of too many of my friends, American and Iraqi. It took us too long to learn from our errors and adopt an effective counterinsurgency strategy, and even now the war is far from won...

So they are -- as long as we continue to back them with air support, intelligence and US combat units, whose numbers are steadily diminishing. Iraq will need American advisers for years to come. For starters, it takes five years to produce a competent fighter pilot or tank company commander. Moreover, Iraq faces significant external security threats, as well as the remnants of al-Qaeda in Iraq, Shiite militias and Sunni insurgent groups. But US forces will increasingly be able to turn combat over to the Iraqis, allowing the United States to scale back its involvement significantly...

Much more at The Washington Post.

On September 16, General Raymond Odierno will succeed General David Petraeus as commander of US and coalition forces in Iraq. The surge strategy Petraeus and Odierno developed and executed in 2007 achieved its objectives: reducing violence in Iraq enough to allow political processes to restart, economic development to move forward, and reconciliation to begin. Violence has remained at historic lows even after the withdrawal of all surge forces and the handover of many areas to Iraqi control. Accordingly, President Bush has approved the withdrawal of 8,000 additional troops by February 2009.

With Barack Obama's recent declaration that the surge in Iraq has succeeded, it should now be possible to move beyond that debate and squarely address the current situation in Iraq and the future. Reductions in violence permitting political change were the goal of the surge, but they are not the sole measure of success in Iraq.

The United States seeks a free, stable, independent Iraq, with a legitimately elected representative government that can govern and defend its territory, is at peace with its neighbors, and is an ally of the United States in the war on terror. The Iraqi leadership has made important strides toward developing a new and inclusive political system that addresses the concerns of all Iraq's ethnic and sectarian groups. But it has also taken steps in the wrong direction. An understandable desire to seize on the reduction in violence to justify overly hasty force reductions and premature transfer of authority to Iraqis puts the hard-won gains of 2007 and 2008 at risk. Thus, the president's announcement of new troop withdrawals has come before we even know when Iraq's provincial elections will occur.

More at The Weekly Standard.

The unit has come to know the neighborhood in a way that would have been unthinkable just after the war, or even into 2004 and 2005. In fact, the US military has never secured Iraq or controlled it so completely as it has today, and never before has their wealth of intelligence and ability to analyze it been better.

--Daniel Pepper

Rebuilding a Baghdad Neighborhood

Time Magazine

January 13, 2008

When Colonel James R. Crider's 1-4 cavalry squadron got to Baghdad last May, their first 30 days were pockmarked with roadside bombs, shootings and grenade attacks. But the war stories out of Crider's outfit nowadays don't have much to do with war anymore. For the past three months there hasn't been a significant incident.

--Daniel Pepper

When the War Stories Have Nothing to Do With War

Time Magazine

January 15, 2008

Jim is now a Senior Military Fellow at the Center for a New American Security and has put together a world-class briefing on how to conduct population security counterinsurgency operations, which he has presented to rave reviews at the COIN Academy in Taji and in Washington. Highlights of his slide package are posted here. Those interested in inviting Jim to lecture so that they can learn counterinsurgency from someone who's been there and done it are invited to contact Jim through the CNAS at 202.457.9400

Here's a blog post explaining the report, and the full report in pdf form.

Thanks to Matt at the Center for American Progress for the tip on the report. Matt writes "Small Wars Journal is essential reading for a lot of us here!" Glad to hear that. We thought everyone there was pretty smart. :)

The Center for Strategic and International Studies has posted a number of short pieces written by CSIS scholars on the Russia-Georgia conflict and its broader implications. Additionally, CSIS recorded several podcast interviews to compliment the index. It's a very good resource for anyone looking for a level of insight beyond the mainstream media and the papers are a bit more disciplined than much of the other material currently floating around the 'Net.

Fine analysis by longtime SWJ friend Dr. David Ucko, a Program Coordinator and Research Fellow at the Department of War Studies, King's College London. He administers and contributes to the Conflict, Security and Development Research Group and is the co-editor of a volume examining political reintegration in various contexts, to be published by Routledge in 2009.

Here's the abstract:

Following its overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003, the United States was confronted with one of the most complex state-building enterprises of recent history. A central component of state building, emphasised in the literature yet given scant attention at the time of the invasion, is the process of political reintegration: the transformation of armed groups into political actors —to participate peacefully in the political future of the country. In Iraq, political reintegration was a particularly important challenge, relating both to the armed forces of the disposed regime and to the Kurdish and Shia militias eager to play a role in the new political system. This article examines the different approaches employed by the United States toward the political reintegration of irregular armed groups, from the policy vacuum of 2003 to the informal reintegration seen during the course of the so-called "surge" in 2007 and 2008. The case study has significant implications for the importance of getting political reintegration right - and the long-term costs of getting it badly wrong.

More at Routledge.

9/11: One Story of Many

by Tina Beller

Sept. 11, 2001, was a horrific day for Americans. The sights of innocent men and women losing their lives are forever seared in the mind's eyes of our Nation, including the memory of a young Brooklynite named Monique Page.

Born to two hard-working, Italian-American parents, Page was raised in the hallways of the family business -- a women's clothing manufacturer. Years of training and grooming to assume a key leadership role in the family business was certainly the Page family's goal for their daughter's future. Growing up, life was relatively easy for Page.

"I was 33-years old and single when 9-11 happened," said Page, now a U.S. Army sergeant and a noncommissioned officer assigned to the U.S. Army Recruiting Station -- City Hall. "I was a retail sales manager for an upscale women's sportswear store in Manhattan, and I was easily recruited for the next better deal. I had gone as far as I could within the family business without taking over, and I just wasn't ready for that. For a short time, I had even attended college studying business management ... again ... preparing me to take over my parent's family business. I look back now and realize I didn't really know what my future held."

When the news reached her at work of two planes crashing into the World Trade Center in Lower Manhattan's financial district, she watched in horror as television stations broadcasted unbelievable images of planes crashing into the famous New York skyscrapers and then later collapsing in furious mushroom-like clouds of smoke and debris. The toll -- over 3,000 innocent dead -- nationality immaterial.

Page's normally energetic and glowing personality became unusually morose in the weeks that followed. Weeks became months as broadcast and print news agencies carried storylines of memorial ceremonies, investigations and the spouses, mothers, fathers and children alike, who continued to search desperately for their loved ones that never came home that unforgettable September day.

This pervasive tone of sadness, this uncharacteristic disposition loomed in her all the time and deeply affected Page. An otherwise strong-willed and feisty woman had been reduced to tears. Sleep, for her, was becoming an old memory.

"I couldn't stand this other person I had become," admitted Page. "I cried all the time, and this wasn't me. I am normally a happy person, a vibrant person, and this just wasn't me. I knew I wanted to go to Iraq. I just didn't know how. Someone I knew informed me that the way to get to Iraq was by going to an Army recruiter. I didn't even know about basic training back then. I just knew I needed to go to Iraq to help."

Despite mounting disapproval from her parents, Page realized she was solely responsible for improving herself. She researched her options, and made her decision from a position of strength and knowledge. She could stay miserable, or she could be earning more, getting an education or specialized job training -- truly getting an edge on life.

On July 3, 2004, Page enlisted into the U.S. Army at the Staten Island Recruiting Station -- South Shore. Not only did she now share in the responsibility of supporting and defending the people of the United States of America, but also securing and preserving all the freedoms the American people hold dear -- a burden in which she was proud to stand tall to shoulder.

From applicant to private first class, Page successfully completed her initial entry requirements: graduating from not only Basic Combat Training at Fort Jackson, S.C., but also her Advanced Individual Training as a motor transportation operator from Fort Leonard Wood, Mo. She was assigned to the 27th Main Support Battalion, a subordinate unit of the legendary 1st Cavalry Division -- a rapidly deployable armored division -- located at Fort Hood, Texas. She was immediately promoted to the rank of specialist.

Page realized her dream in 2004 when she deployed with her unit to Iraq the same year in support Operation Iraqi Freedom 2. For 365 days, she braved the dangerous Iraqi roadways. Her job was to perform re-supply missions along myriad Iraqi roadways. She defined her end state as safely arriving at the objective to deliver the cargo or personnel for continued U.S. military operations.

The missions were not always easy, a lesson Page learned when she came under attack.

"I was stationed at Taji in northern Iraq at the time," Page began. "I was assigned to drive a load departing from LSA [Logistics Support Area] Anaconda arriving at the BIAP [Baghdad International Airport]. We made the delivery successfully, so we went to the DFAC [Dining Facility] for chow. Anti-Coalition Forces began lobbing motor rounds into our area and started shooting at us, so we took cover. Between mortars and fire, we ran fast back to our unit and prepared for whatever or whoever was coming through the gate. I was so glad we had no casualties, but we were definitely attacked."

"My parents and my cousins never thought I was going to make it through basic training, let alone combat," continued Page. "They knew me as someone who liked getting her hair and nails done, and they thought I couldn't hack it. Six years later, look at me. I am a very structured type of person, very disciplined, and I like everything just so ... so for me, the Army is perfect. I don't drink, don't do drugs, and I love working out every morning. I'm now a combat veteran, in the best shape of my life, and my happiness has returned."

For her achievements and overseas military service, she was decorated with the Army Commendation Medal, Global War on Terrorism Service Medal, Iraq Campaign Medal and the Combat Action Badge—an award symbolizing active participation in combat. She returned home to her family unwounded and feeling a strong sense of personal accomplishment to herself and to her country.

Shortly after her redeployment in 2005, Page was selected by the Department of the Army for recruiting duty in her favorite place -- New York City, more specifically the U.S. Army Recruiting Station -- City Hall.

Seven years after the single event that inspired her to answer her nation's call to service, now Sgt. Page -- soon to be Staff Sgt. Page if she has any say in it -- returns the favor to her community by educating all ages of people about the life, career and educational benefits of the U.S. Army.

"The great thing about what I do here in New York is that I know for a fact that I am changing a lot of applicant's lives because I am giving them a better place to live or a career or an opportunity to go to college which they maybe couldn't pay for before," Page said confidently, further underscoring the Army's position as a credible partner in education.

"I think I was made for being a Soldier and recruiting because I enjoy talking to people on the streets, high schools and colleges," she said. "I get the chance to talk about the Army and how much I love it. Nowadays, people are biased, and they do not know what the Army truly offers to us. They think Army and they think war, and that's not always the case because sometimes we provide stateside support, homeland security and even assistance with natural disasters."

According to 20-year old Pvt. Christina Edwards, now an Army supply specialist who knew Page for three years before she made the commitment to serve her country, Page's success is in both her magnetism and her honesty.

"I was drawn to her as a recruiter because she has a lot of energy and is very upbeat," said Edwards. "She's also very honest, and she never lied to me. The truth may have been hard for me to hear, like my ASVAB [Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery] score, which was lower than I had wanted, but I was okay with the hard news because I knew she would give me the tools and the motivation to keep going."

"I have taken some great young people out of the projects, and through the Army, we have given them a safe place to live, given them a career plus an education," said Page. "They like me because I motivate them. I make them feel positive, and I lay all the cards on the table and let them know what to expect so they aren't surprised. To this day, I know I have touched many lives in a positive way because I still get phone calls, emails, regular letters, even hometown visits from applicants I brought into the military."

Many of her recruits have proven themselves to be leaders in the making.

"Before they leave for basic training, I give them classes on how to tell military time, how to use the phonetic alphabet, how to use a compass for land navigation, how to march and other basic common tasks so each one is prepared to succeed in basic training," said Page. "Many of my recruits move on to be squad leaders and honor graduates, and that makes me proud I helped march them to success."

"She's definitely a go-getter," said Page's Station Commander, Staff Sgt. Melvin Hunt, 42, fellow Brooklynite and 17-year Army veteran. "I highly commend her for her patriotism and for such a selfless act of enlisting after and because of 9-11."

"I did it for those 3,000 people that died in 9-11," Page said humbly, her eyes sympathetic but firm. "I went to Iraq like I wanted to for my country, and for those 3,000 people that lost their life that day, and I've done good things. My parents may not have agreed with my choice, but years later, they see I am happy, and that I love this Army way of life!"

Since 9-11, more than 537,603 American citizens have volunteered for the Regular Army, while more than 176,317 citizens have joined the U.S. Army Reserve.