Small Wars Journal

Do Oligarchies Create Insurgencies?

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 7:15am

Do Oligarchies Create Insurgencies? By Mark Safranski, Zenpundit.

One of the tenets of pop-centric COIN is that better governance will deliver the loyalty of the people who are the center of gravity over whom the insurgent and state contest. This usually means cajoling the state to reform and remove the worst abuses that serve to politically fuel the insurgency. Occasionally this is successful (El Salvador), frequently it is not (South Vietnam, Afghanistan) and in other cases it may be irrelevant as the method is eschewed in favor of indiscriminate brute force and punitive expeditions (Sri Lanka, Soviet COIN) but it begs the question of: “What kind of governance is most likely to create insurgencies in the first place?” …

The Future of Land Wars

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 7:07am

The Future of Land Wars: Intense, High-Tech, Urban, Coastal by David Axe, AOL Defense.

After the year 2020 ground wars will be more intense and concentrated in the world's crowded coastal cities. That's the consensus from a panel of experts including current and retired Army officers and professional analysts.

Over the past decade, the U.S. Army and Marine Corps have adapted to the low-intensity wars in Iraq and Afghanistan by abandoning traditional heavy weaponry for lighter, more mobile systems -- and by adding billions of dollars in aerial-surveillance equipment. While perhaps suited to occupation duty, this gear might not last long against a determined, high-tech foe on a coastal, urban battlefield.

The experts differ on how U.S. ground forces should change. But they all agree that big changes are necessary if American forces expect to win the next ground war. Five experts weigh in…

Criminal Insurgencies in Mexico and the Americas

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 6:51am

Special Issue: Criminal Insurgencies in Mexico and the Americas: The Gangs and Cartels Wage War

Small Wars & Insurgencies

Volume 22, Issue 5, 2011

The following Small Wars Journal El Centro fellows took part in this important new publication on criminal insurgencies: Malcolm Beith, Robert J. Bunker, Steven S. Dudley, Samuel Logan, John P. Sullivan, and Graham H. Turbiville Jr.

Small Wars & Insurgencies (Taylor & Francis) is directed at providing a forum for the discussion of the historical, political, social, economic and psychological aspects of insurgency, counter-insurgency, limited war, peacekeeping operations and the use of force as an instrument of policy. Including an authoritative review section, its aim is to provide an outlet for historians, political scientists, policy makers and practitioners to discuss and debate theoretical and practical issues related to the past, present and future of this important area of both international and domestic relations.

Small Wars & Insurgencies

Volume 22, Issue 5, 2011

Special Issue: Criminal Insurgencies in Mexico and the Americas: The Gangs and Cartels Wage War

Available online: 29 Nov 2011 at http://www.tandfonline.com/toc/fswi20/22/5

This edited work will later be available as a Routledge book for more general distribution.

Editor's Note

Dr Robert J. Bunker, pages 716-717

Preface: Los Zetas and a new barbarism

Samuel Logan, pages 718-727

Grand Strategic Overview: Epochal Change and New Realities for the United States

Robert J. Bunker, pages 728-741

This grand strategic overview highlights and analyzes the influence of epochal change on the state and conflict and the new realities with which the United States must now contend. This deep context is being provided so that (1) the belligerent and politicized non-state entities that have emerged in Mexico and the Americas can be better understood within the larger three-front grand strategic temporal conflict the US is now engaged in; and (2) the stark realities that the US faces – such as loss of unilateral world dominance, increasing debt and ongoing deficits, shifting demographics, inability to staunch the flow of and demand for illicit drugs, and an increasing prison population – are highlighted. Finally, this essay finishes with a discussion of the many important contributions contained in this edited work.

Part 1: Theory

Rethinking Insurgency: Criminality, Spirituality, and Societal Warfare in the Americas

John P. Sullivan & Robert J. Bunker, pages 742-763

Driven by globalization, Internet communications technology (ICT), and new economic forms the nature of states may be changing. Transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) – including what are commonly known as cartels – are early adopters to the new political/economic landscape. In addition to seeking to rule the illicit economy, criminal actors (networked cartels and gangs) are challenging states through high-order violence and leveraging nascent social/spiritual movements (narcocultura) to potentially usher in a new political dynamic. These violent non-state actors (criminal soldiers) are insurgent actors. They are waging new forms of insurgency – criminal and possibly spiritual – that have the potential to reconfigure states.

Integrating Feral Cities and Third Phase Cartels/Third Generation Gangs Research: The Rise of Criminal (Narco) City Networks and BlackFor

Robert J. Bunker & John P. Sullivan, pages 764-786

This essay addresses and integrates ‘feral cities’ with ‘third phase cartel’ and ‘third generation gangs’ (3GEN Gangs) research. The feral cities diagnostic tool will be expanded from three levels (green, yellow, and red) to five (adding purple and black). This will be accomplished by means of the addition of two new levels that model the shift from ferality (de-institutionalization) to criminal re-institutionalization of urban social and political structures around new patterns of living. Such processes set the stage for the projected emergence of the BlackFor (Black Force) within the Americas. BlackFor represents a confederation of illicit non-state actors – essentially a postmodern form of societal cancer – linked together by means of a network of criminalized and criminal (narco) cities as are now arising.

Part 2: Mexico

A Broken Mexico: Allegations of Collusion Between the Sinaloa Cartel and Mexican Political Parties

Malcolm Beith, pages 787-806

The Mexican drug war, in full swing since December 2006, has now claimed more than 40,000 lives. Dozens of high-level cartel operatives have been captured or killed, yet the leadership of one cartel, from Sinaloa in northwestern Mexico, has remained apparently untouched. The apparent lack of a crackdown on the Sinaloa Cartel has spurred criticisms of the Calderón administration, as well as US authorities aiding in the drug fight – some critics contend that the Sinaloa Cartel has enjoyed protection from the authorities. The Sinaloa Cartel's history of protection and collusion by authorities goes back a long way – during the reign of the PRI from 1929 to 2000, Sinaloa's drug traffickers were allowed to operate with near-total impunity. But mounting evidence – captures and deaths of high-level operatives from Sinaloa as well as arrests of relatives of the leadership – suggests that the claims of collusion against the current Mexican administration are false.

Just Where do Mexican Cartel Weapons Come From?

David A. Kuhn & Robert J. Bunker, pages 807-834

This essay will provide an overview of the major policy positions articulated in the literature pertaining to Mexican cartel weapons origins. The four major positions related to firearms are those of the US Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (BATF), the Mexican government under the Felipe Calderón administration, US interest groups focusing on firearms regulation, and US interest groups focusing on firearms deregulation. The essay will then analyze the major sources of Mexican cartel weapons and then provide conclusions stemming from this analysis and the future trends identified. A component of this assessment will be the provision of gross estimates of the weapons sources themselves in order to show that Mexican cartel weapons origins are diverse in nature and have been increasing in sophistication over time from basic civilian arms into paramilitary and military arms. Part of the reason for this increase in sophistication has been the rise of Los Zetas which has resulted in a deadly ‘arms race’ taking place between the various Mexican cartels.

Silver over the border: US law enforcement corruption on the Southwest Border

Graham H. Turbiville Jr, pages 835-859

US national security is seriously challenged by the more visible appearance of American law enforcement and security corruption among organizations charged with policing and protecting the US–Mexican border. A burgeoning number of allegations, criminal investigations, indictments, and convictions directed against US law enforcement personnel calls into question the fundamental integrity of US border security forces and leadership, as well as the willingness or capability of key agencies and their executive branch leadership to effect reforms. For the United States, such law enforcement and other official US Government corruption acts like corrosive acid on the legitimacy of these institutions and upon domestic and allied trust in their integrity and competence.

Part 3: The Americas

Security, Stability and Sovereignty Challenges of Politicized Gangs and Insurgents in the Americas

Max Manwaring, pages 860-889

There are numerous small, irregular, asymmetric, and revolutionary wars ongoing around the world today. In these conflicts, there is much to be learned by anyone who has the responsibility of dealing with, analyzing, or reporting on national security threats generated by state and non-state actors. The cases we examine (Mexico, Jamaica, Colombia, Argentina, and Peru) demonstrate how the weakening of national stability, security, and sovereignty can indirectly and directly contribute to personal and collective insecurity, radical political change, and possible state failure. These cases are also significant beyond their uniqueness. The common political objective in each diverse case is one way or another to control governments, and/or coerce radical change in discrete political-social-economic systems. This defines war as well as insurgency, and shifts the asymmetric global security challenge from abstract to real.

Central America Besieged: Cartels and Maras Country Threat Analysis

Steven S. Dudley, pages 890-913

The following is a threat assessment of the seven countries that make up Central America. That region is struggling to control burgeoning street gangs and organized criminal groups which have overrun its poor and ill-prepared security forces. The results are clear: rising crime and homicide rates throughout the region; corruption and instability within the governments. The two gangs that challenge authority are transnational in nature but pose less a threat to national security than they do to everyday life. Their drug peddling and extortion have shattered entire communities and forced the governments to reallocate important resources. The governments' strategy of jailing suspected gang members en masse has arguably made them stronger rather than weaker. Meanwhile, the organized criminal groups have deeply penetrated governments at nearly every level. They control swaths of territory, co-opting these areas, as well as the local governments, for their own purposes. Opposition to them is often futile. Mexican-based organizations are increasingly using violent tactics to displace their rivals. The governments of the region seem unprepared to meet the challenge.

30 November SWJ Roundup

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 6:42am

US Naval Institute Daily - USNI

Real Clear World - RCP

Afghanistan

Afghan Officials Voice Scant Remorse to Pakistan - WP

Pakistan Will Skip Afghan Conference - NYT

Angry Pakistan to Boycott Afghanistan Talks - Reuters

Afghan President Urges Pakistan to Attend Bonn Conference - VOA

Pakistan Rejects Afghan Plea to Attend Conference - AP

Dempsey Makes Case for Progress in Afghanistan - AFPS

Survey: Afghans Living Longer, Fewer Infants Die - AP

NATO Service Member Dies in Afghanistan - AP

ISAF Operations Summary - AFPS

How to Win in Afghanistan - WP opinion

 

Pakistan

US Scrambles to Contain Pakistan Fallout - AP

Pakistan PM: No More 'Business as Usual' With US - Reuters

Pakistan Steps Up Anti-US Rhetoric After Attack - AP

Pakistan Army: NATO Attack Was Blatant Aggression - Reuters

Dempsey: NATO, Pakistan Working to Improve Relations - AFPS

US Prepares to Vacate Pakistan Air Base - Reuters

Clark to Lead US Centcom’s Pakistan Border Investigation - AFPS

Pakistani Cable TV Blocks BBC Over Documentary - AP

 

Iraq

As US Troops Leave for Good, Biden Visits Iraq - NYT

Biden: US Troop Exit Marks New Beginning With Iraq - AP

Biden Says U.S. Pullout Brings New Relations With Iraq - Reuters

Biden Arrives in Iraq as Drawdown Enters Final Month - AFPS

Biden Visits Iraq Ahead of US Troop Departure - AP

Iranian Influence Seeping into Iraq - AP

Soldiers in Iraq Pack Gear for Departure - AFPS

 

Iran

Iran Protesters Storm UK Embassy in Tehran - BBC

Iranian Protesters Storm British Diplomatic Compounds in Tehran - VOA

Hardline Iranian Students Storm British Embassy in Tehran - WP

Protesters Storm British Embassy in Tehran - NYT

Iran Protesters Storm British Embassy in Tehran - LAT

Iranian Protesters Storm British Embassy in Tehran - AP

Iranian Protesters Storm British Diplomatic Compounds - Reuters

Britain Evacuates Diplomats After Tehran Embassy Attack - NYT

UK Diplomats Pulled Out of Iran - BBC

Norway Closes Embassy in Iran After Brits Attacked - AP

UN Council Condemns Attack on UK Embassy in Iran - Reuters

Images Show Devastation at Iran Base After Blast - NYT

Deja Vu in Iran? - WP

 

Egypt

Egypt's First Round of Voting Nears End - VOA

After Second Day of Voting Islamists Offer Challenge to Generals - NYT

Egypt Voters Turn Out for Second Day of elections - LAT

Voters Say Election Means Protests Can Now Cease - WT

Egypt: Partial Results Show Islamist Lead in Vote - AP

Muslim Brotherhood Says Leads Egypt's Vote Count - Reuters

Egyptians Keep Voting as Military Leaders Tout High Turnout - WP

Egypt's Military Takes Credit for Election Turnout - AP

Islamists Expect Gains as Egypt Counts Votes - Reuters

Egypt's Christians Try to Stem Islamists in Vote - AP

 

Syria

Pressure Mounts on Syria, Government Raids Continue - VOA

UN Rights Forum Poised to Condemn Syria - Reuters

Turkey Increases Pressure on Syria Over Oppression - NYT

Syria Hit With Turkey Sanctions, Army Losses Mount - Reuters

Turkey Intensifies Sanctions Against Syrian Regime - NYT

Turkey Imposes Sanctions on Syria - BBC

Damascus Mulls Arab League Sanctions - VOA

Syrian Rebel Ambush Said to Kill 3 Soldiers - Reuters

 

Middle East / North Africa

Calls for Restraint on Israel-Lebanon Border - NYT

Gaza Official: Palestinian President Opposes Unity - AP

Outgoing Defense Minister to Be Kuwait PM - Reuters

Freed UAE Activists Vow to Press Reform Campaign - AP

Islamist Named as New Morocco PM - BBC

Moroccan Islamists Face Tough Ride at Government Helm - Reuters

Libya: Capital Transforms, for Better and for Worse - NYT

Gadhafi's Daughter Calls for Libya Overthrow - AP

Tunisia Again Extends State of Emergency - AP

Tunisia Secular, Islamist Students Clash on Campus - Reuters

Latest Developments in Arab World's Unrest - AP

The Arab Awakening and Israel - NYT opinion

 

WikiLeaks

Manning’s Lawyer Hints at Strategy in WikiLeaks Case - WP

 

US Department of Defense

World Faces Strategic Inflection Point, Dempsey Says - AFPS

Chairman Dismisses Notion of Military in Decline - AFPS

Senate Budget Vote Backs Guard Joining JCS - AFT

DOD Works with Congress on Dover Review - AFPS

Services Announce First Fiscal 2012 Recruiting Numbers - AFPS

Military’s Aggressive Rape Prosecution Has Pitfalls - McClatchy

House to Vote on Faster Airport Screening for Troops - S&S

Medal of Honor Recipient Suing BAE for Character Damage - S&S

 

United States

Senate Approves Requiring Military Custody in Terror Cases - NYT

Senate Defies Obama Veto Threat in Terrorist Custody Vote - WT

Stage Set for Fight Over Detainee Legislation - WP

Lawmakers Try to Slip in Hundreds of Earmarks - WP

LA Police Arrest at Least a Dozen Occupy Protesters - LAT

Three Inconvenient Truths for Occupy Wall Street - LAT opinion

 

United Kingdom

Public Sector Strike Takes Effect - BBC

Britons Strike as Government Extends Austerity Measures - NYT

 

Africa

Congo Opposition Candidate Calls for Annulment of Vote - VOA

In Congo Election Whirlwind Votes May Become Victims, Too - NYT

Call to Annul 'Rigged' Congo Vote - BBC

UN Committee Sanctions Congo Militia Chief - Reuters

Ex-President of Ivory Coast Arrives in the Hague to Face Charges - NYT

Ivory Coast: Gbagbo Faces ICC Murder and Rape Charges - BBC

4 Somali Soldiers Killed in Suicide Bomb Attack - AP

 

Americas

Latin America Poverty at New Low - BBC

Anti-Violence Activist Slain in Mexico - AP

Son of Slain Gulf Cartel Leader Arrested in Mexico - AP

FARC Blames Colombia for Captives' Deaths - AP

Honduras Turns to Army to Battle Drug Gangs - Reuters

Chile Seeks US Naval Officer Over 1973 Death - BBC

Cleric Hopes to Meet With Jailed US Man in Cuba - AP

 

Asia Pacific

Georgetown Students Shed Light on China’s Nuclear Weapons Tunnels - WP

North Korea Reports Progress on New Reactor - NYT

Clinton in S. Korea Ahead of Historic Burma Visit - VOA

Clinton Arrives in Burma to Assess Reforms - NYT

Clinton’s Visit to Burma Raises Hopes and Concerns - NYT

Clinton's Burma Trip Marks Significant Shift in Policy - LAT

Clinton Heads to a Hopeful Burma - WP

Clinton in Burma to Urge Reform - Reuters

Groups Press Clinton on Burmese Human Rights - VOA

Burma: Reforms Win Over Some of the Country’s Skeptics - NYT

US Outreach to Burma May Prompt Fuller Disclosure of N. Korea Ties - VOA

Analysis: Clinton Gives Burma Respect It Craves - AP

Suspect in Bombings Arrested in Philippines - AP

Bill Limiting Street Protests Moves Ahead in Malaysia - NYT

 

Europe

EU Defense Ministers May Endorse Pooling Resources - AP

Europe Fights for Euro's Survival - VOA

Eurozone Ministers Try to Beef Up Rescue Fund - AP

European Officials to Turn to IMF - WP

Europe: Markets and Masses Wait for Merkel to Blink - LAT

US Commander Condemns Attacks on Kosovo Force - AFPS

South Ossetian Election Results Annulled - AP

South Ossetian Declares Herself President - AP

Norwegian Mass Killer Ruled Insane, Likely to Avoid Jail - Reuters

Norway Killer Found Insane, Unfit for Prison - AP

Germany’s Denial, Europe’s Disaster - NYT editorial

Band of Brothers or Dysfunctional Family?

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 1:24pm

Band of Brothers or Dysfunctional Family?:  A Military Perspective on Coalition Challenges During Stability Operations by Dr. Russell W. Glenn, RAND.

Counterinsurgency and other stability operations seldom present a nation with trials that threaten its very survival, barring cases in which that nation is the target of insurgents. Bonds between coalition members are therefore weaker than when threat of annihilation reinforces mutual dependence. Such situations are further complicated by the use of force likely not being the primary implement for attaining ultimate success. Devoid of a preeminent threat and denied primary dependence on armed forces, core coalition objectives tend to be political rather than military in character and include counterinsurgency, nation building, developing government capacity, and providing humanitarian assistance — activities often associated with stability operations. Armed forces are not staffed or trained to meet the long-term demands of many of these tasks. An alliance or coalition must therefore incorporate participation by other government agencies and — ultimately — that of the indigenous government and its population more than is expected during conventional combat operations. Recent contingencies have also seen commercial enterprises, militias, intergovernmental organizations, and nongovernmental organizations become key participants in these undertakings. The result is coalitions of a size seldom seen and with a number of affiliations rarely, if ever, approached before the late 20th century. This monograph investigates the dramatic expansion of challenges confronting alliances and coalitions today and thereafter considers potential solutions that include questioning the conception of what constitutes a coalition in today's world.

What happens when ‘demand’ for the Army exceeds its ‘supply’?

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 1:04pm

In a piece written for AOL Defense, Nathan Freier, a senior fellow at CSIS and a retired U.S. Army officer, implores policymakers to think carefully about “known unknowns” before taking an axe to the Pentagon’s ground forces.

Employing former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s now-famous taxonomy, Freier asserts that the Pentagon, in keeping with its long-established culture, is now making thorough preparation for its preferred “known knowns.” These include China’s rising military power and Iran’s regional ambitions (addressed by the new Air-Sea Battle Concept), North Korea (presumably another network-centric targeting exercise), and post-al Qaeda terrorism (to be managed by the growing CIA-JSOC partnership). For all of the “known knowns” the Pentagon has its plans well in hand.

But what about the “known unknowns,” what Freier terms the “unacceptable disorder” that all serious planners realize the world will toss up and which Freier asserts U.S. ground forces will inevitably have to deal with? How do these unwelcome, unmanageable, and murky situations figure into the Pentagon’s plans?

Freier has a list of scenarios that policymakers don’t want to think about but which seem even more inevitable than the “known knowns”:

What options should the United States retain to respond to contagious violence in the Middle East? What might the United States have to do in case of civil war in Mexico or Cuba, regime collapse in nuclear-armed North Korea or Pakistan or the violent disintegration of Russia? Further, what role, if any, might U.S. forces play in containing unfavorable turns in the Arab Spring -- an Egyptian civil war, resurgent violence in Iraq, or an Iranian proxy war against the Gulf Arab states? Finally, what if the Arab Spring itself is only the vanguard of a more generalized global trend where other important governments prove more vulnerable than many expect to sudden social and political unrest?

Presumably extrapolating from the historical record, Freier implies that U.S. policymakers will not be able to resist eventual intervention in cases like these. And he believes that stabilizing these situations will require a lot of U.S. boots on the ground.

Facing off against Freier’s warning is a recent report from RAND that discusses how the Army might go about cutting its budget and how deep such cuts might get. In order to establish a medium-term floor for the Army’s expenditures, RAND examined the three previous postwar drawdowns since 1950. If these previous “peacetime” levels represent the lowest floors past policymakers have permitted, today’s Army could face up to a 50% cut in its funding. According to RAND, personnel funding could decline 42%; operations and maintenance 52%; and procurement 74%.

Here we have two lines of extrapolation colliding. Freier makes a defensible forecast of the demand for U.S. ground forces, based on the past behavior of U.S. policymakers. Similarly, RAND uses policymakers’ past postwar drawdown decisions to calculate a possible floor for the Army’s force structure. It foresees an Army suffering a decade-long procurement holiday and a force structure smaller than the 1990s.

Analysts like Freier and RAND are left to murky extrapolation because the chaotic policy environment in Washington has left them with nothing else to go on. Serial continuing resolutions, delayed budget sequesters, economic instability, and unresolved debates about America’s future role in the world mean that defense planners have little stable guidance on which to formulate plans. This state of affairs won’t be fixed until at least the next general election – and maybe not even then.

Counterinsurgency Doctrine: In Context

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 7:23am

Dr. David Ucko, no stranger to this community as author of the highly regarded The New Counterinsurgency Era (Georgetown University Press), has the lead article in the forthcoming issue of the interagency journal PRISM.  That journal is produced by the Center for Complex Operations, located onboard National Defense University (NDU).  David is a professor at NDU’s College of International Security Affairs, an institution borne out of 9/11 and extensively devoted to research and instruction in irregular warfare, counter-terrorism, and homeland defense.

Dr. Ucko’s superb article merits serious attention in the Small Wars community and particularly among those debating the merits of and necessary refinements to counterinsurgency doctrine in the contemporary battlespace.  David calls American counterinsurgency doctrine a “concept” in crisis and in need of further debate.   Professor Ucko claims that there is widespread frustration over the attempt to use counterinsurgency doctrine to stabilize Afghanistan.  He notes the counter-narratives to the simple notion that the Army/Marine counterinsurgency theory saved Iraq (and U.S. support) from the brink of disaster in 2007 in “The Surge.”  Finally, he addresses the lack of appetite for “large-scale and protracted military operations to build nations, unify states, and establish legitimate and competent governments” as “undertakings that, even if workable, run counter to the fiscal realities facing the West today.”

Thus, as the small number of prolific critics argue, counterinsurgency doctrine “is naïve in its assumptions, unworkable in its requirements, and arrogant in its unfounded claims of prior success.”

He goes on to put the development of counterinsurgency theory and doctrine into context within the larger U.S. defense agenda.  He notes that counterinsurgency theory and principles have repeatedly helped illustrate the complexity of intrastate violence and its distinctiveness from the “conventional” types of military campaigns for which most Western armed forces are structured and trained.”  It arose not out of a desire to fix Failed States by what some called “failed thinking” but because our senior civilian and/or military leaders had to face the reality that our armed forces were myopically invested in preferences and illusions rather than the real security problems of the day.

Dr. Ucko’s book and this article show that he is an astute observer of American strategic culture.  He goes on to note how our most recent “counterinsurgency era” was motivated by a previous failure to grapple with the political complexities of war in the 1990s during the debate over the so-called Revolution in Military Affairs and subsequently, Transformation.  Echoing arguments made by LtGen Paul K. Van Riper, USMC (and subsequently by Dr. Fred Kagan and H.R. McMaster in the U.S. Army), Ucko finds that “U.S. military thinking was marked by a highly conventional and apolitical understanding of war, epitomized by the program of “defense transformation” and burdened by a “fascination with information technology and precision-strike capabilities” and “airstrikes, drones, computers, and satellites dispensing force swiftly, precisely, and decisively.”  This limited understanding of war, past and present, provided scant preparation for the real world. 

I will leave Dr. Ucko’s worthy contribution to this serious community of practitioners to debate.  Is COIN a concept or a doctrine, is it mature or in need of adaptation, or is it simply a divisive theory searching for relevance or are we once again reverting to form, searching for pristine or apolitical solutions to complex or wicked problems? 

Frank Hoffman is a retired Marine, now serving at the Institute for National Strategic Studies at NDU as a Senior Research Fellow and Director of NDU Press.

29 November SWJ Roundup

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 7:13am

US Naval Institute Daily - USNI

Real Clear World - RCP

Afghanistan

Accounts of Clash Differ; Fraying Ties May Harm Exit Strategy - WP

Military Looks at Supply Routes Away from Pakistan - S&S

Postwar US-Afghanistan Ties Expected to Remain Rocky - LAT

Militants Turn to Death Squads in Afghanistan - NYT

Allen Welcomes Latest Stage of Afghanistan Transition - AFPS

40,000 Troops to Leave Afghanistan by End of 2012 - AP

Afghan $12 Billion Training Cost Will Have to Be Shared - Reuters

NATO Retrains Troops After Afghan Civilian Deaths - AP

Afghan Woman Jailed for Being Raped Aims to Change Law - Reuters

ISAF Operations Summary - AFPS

 

Pakistan

US Central Command to Investigate Killing of Pakistani Troops - LAT

US Central Command to Lead Pakistan Investigation - AFPS

Pakistan Strike Probe Report Due Next Month - AFP

Fatal NATO Raid in Pakistan Likely a Case of Mistaken ID - AP

Afghans Say Commando Unit was Attacked Before Airstrike - WP

Anger Builds Against US as Pakistan Mulls Action Over Attack - NYT

Pakistan PM: No More 'Business as Usual' With US - Reuters

Pakistan to Boycott Meeting Over Deadly NATO Raid - AP

Pakistan Denies Provoking Attack - BBC

NATO Raid in Pakistan Undercuts Rapprochement - AP

Kashmir: Residents See Experiment with Autonomy as 'Illusion'  - CSM

What Happened on the Border? - NYT editorial

Bordering on Defeat - WT editorial

 

Iraq

13 Killed in Car Bombing Outside Baghdad Prison - NYT

Suicide Car Bomber Kills 19 Outside Prison in Iraq - AP

Suicide Bomber Hits Iraq Military Base, 19 Dead - Reuters

Turkey Considers Iraq as Alternative Trade Route - AP

 

Iran

Iran Moves Quickly to Downgrade Ties with Britain - NYT

Iran Rushes Through Law Expelling British Ambassador - Reuters

EU Preparing More Sanctions on Iran - Reuters

Mystery Explosion Rocks Iran City - TT

Sound of Blast Reported in Iran's Isfahan City - Reuters

On Pins and Needles and Missiles in Tehran - WT opinion

 

Egypt

Voting Continues in Egypt's Landmark Elections - VOA

Egyptian Polls Enter Second Day - BBC

Voting in Historic Egyptian Elections Enters Second Day - NYT

Egyptians Crowd Polling Stations - BBC

Egyptians Head to the Polls - WP

In Egypt, Long Lines for a Vote Clouded by Army’s Role - NYT

Calm But Enthusiastic, Millions Vote in Egypt - TT

Egypt Voters Endure Long Lines at Polls - LAT

For Many Voters, Finally an Election that Matters  - CSM

Egypt: Conflicting Emotions Behind a 1st-Time Vote - AP

Egypt's Post-Mubarak Poll Peaceful, High Turnout - Reuters

Hope Glimmers in Long Lines at Polls in Cairo - NYT

In Egypt, Ultra-Islamists Make Election Debut - AP

Egypt Police: Killing Sparks Sectarian Clash - AP

Analysis: New Parliament to Shake Up Egypt Power Balance - Reuters

Egypt's Overbearing Military - LAT editorial

Democracy Denied? - WP opinion

In Bleak Cairo, a Call for Optimism - NYT opinion

 

Syria

UN Commission: Syrian Forces Committed 'Crimes Against Humanity' - VOA

UN Report Condemns Syria - WP

UN Panel Accuses Syria of Gross Human Rights Violations - LAT

Syria 'Committed Crimes Against Humanity' - BBC

Security Forces Have Killed at Least 256 Children - TT

UN: Syrian Forces Killed, Tortured 256 Children - AP

Syria Sanctioned and Condemned for 'Brutality' - Reuters

Germany: UN Should Endorse Syria Sanctions - AP

Turkey Raises Syria Military Option, Russia Urges Caution - Reuters

Arab League Sanctions Could Hurt Syria's Regional Standing, Economic Agenda - VOA

Syrian Government Days 'Numbered' - BBC

Syria Calls Arab League Sanctions ‘Economic War’ - NYT

 

Middle East / North Africa

Jordan’s King Plays Host to Israel’s President - NYT

Israeli President Makes Surprise Visit to Jordan - AP

Rockets from Lebanon Hit Israel - BBC

Military: 3 Rockets From Lebanon Strike Israel - AP

Kuwait PM Resigns after Protests - BBC

Kuwait Government Resigns - Reuters

Kuwait Government Resigns, But Stays as Caretakers - AP

Jailed UAE Activists 'Pardoned' - BBC

5 UAE Convicted Reform Activists Freed From Jail - AP

Bahrain Security Chief Replaced - BBC

Bahrain Postpones Protesters' Death Penalty Appeal - AP

UN: Libya Ex-Rebels 'Hold 7,000' - BBC

UN: Ex-Rebels Still Hold 7,000 People in Libya - AP

Libyan Clerics Back Disarmament of Ex-Rebels - AP

Libya Says Ex-Deputy PM Suspect in General's Killing - Reuters

1st Military Trial for Tunisia's Ex-Ruler Begins - AP

Tunisia's Police Protest, Demanding Fair Treatment - AP

Latest Developments in Arab World's Unrest - AP

 

US Department of Defense

Front Lines: Life as a US Military Photographer - PopPhoto

Corps Seeks Wearable System to Power Equipment - MCT

Defense on the Chopping Block - WT opinion

Why the Defense Focus on Asia-Pacific? - WP opinion

A Flawed Way to Detain - WP opinion

 

United States

States Face a Crushing Economic Outlook - WP

Occupy LA Camp Shrinking, But Arrests Inevitable - LAT

LA Police Make Arrests Before Withdrawing at Occupy Protest - NYT

Survey Shows Growing Gap Between Civilians, Military - AFPS

Bail Denied for Massachusetts Terror Plot Suspect - AP

Strategic Doctrine of Silence - NYT opinion

 

United Kingdom

Hacking Scandal Widens to Government Secrets, Report Says - NYT

British Panel Says Bungled Police Response Factor in Riots - LAT

Tribunal Says Suspected Russian Spy Can Stay in UK - AP

 

Africa

EU Police, Experts to Counter Al Qaeda in Africa - Reuters

Millions Vote in Congo Despite Violence - NYT

Incidents of Unrest, Violence Mar DR Congo Elections - VOA

Partial DR Congo Vote Extension - BBC

DR Congo Votes in Tense Election - BBC

Violence and Disarray Mar Voting in Congo - WT

Violence, Late Ballots May Mar Critical Congo Vote - AP

Chaos, Arson, Violence Mar Congo Election - Reuters

Top Four Ways Congo's Instability Affects the World - CSM

UK Aims to Step Up Int'l Action on Somalia - Reuters

Somali Militants Shut Down More Aid Operations - NYT

Militants Close Somali Aid Groups - BBC

Kenyan Court Issues Arrest Order for Sudan's Bashir - Reuters

Sudan 'Dismayed' Over Kenya Al-Bashir Court Ruling - AP

Sudan to Expel Kenyan Ambassador - BBC

Zimbabwe Militants Call for Restaurants Boycott - AP

 

Americas

US Blacklisting Seems to Have Little Consequence in Mexico - LAT

Mexico Drug War Sends Emotionally Troubled Kids to Texas - AP

Colombia Thanks Venezuela for Capture of Drug Trafficker - LAT

Venezuela Arrests Top 'Drug Boss' - BBC

Top Colombian Drug Trafficker Captured - AP

Colombian Hostage Survivor: 'I Ran the Other Way' - AP

Former FARC Captive Recalls Colombia Jungle Horror - Reuters

Cuban Government to Contract With Private Sector - Reuters

Guyana Votes for New Government - BBC

 

Asia Pacific

China, Burma To Strengthen Military Cooperation - VOA

Obama, Clinton gamble on Burma - AP

 

Europe

US, EU Leaders Meet as Eurozone Recession Looms - VOA

Debt Fears Hang Over US-EU Summit - BBC

Obama, EU Leaders Meet Amid European Debt Concerns  - AP

Germany Resists Radical Solutions as Financial Crisis Escalates - WP

Germans Arrest Suspect in Neo-Nazi Murder Ring - AP

Medvedev: New Radar Demonstrates Russia's Might - AP

Poland Calls on Ukraine to Resolve Tymoshenko Case - VOA

2 NATO Peacekeepers Wounded in Kosovo, 23 Injured - AP

NATO Soldiers Wounded by Gunfire in Kosovo Clash - Reuters

Trial Set for Spanish Judge Over War Crimes Probe - AP

Psychiatric Evaluation of Norway Killer Completed - AP

Report: Norwegian Mass Killer Criminally Insane - Reuters

 

South Asia

India Postpones Border Talks With China - VOA

Books to Read on the 2011 Arab Spring

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 6:35am

The 2011 Arab Spring is one of those seminal events that could be compared to the 1968 riots, that gripped Europe and the United States, and which began to change the social consciousness of whole nations. But as events unfold there are many moving parts to the Arab Spring and this is not made any simpler by the rapid pace of Twitter™, Facebook™, and other forms of internet social media.  What is important is to immerse yourself in the intricacies and uniqueness of each country, including their leaders, despotic systems, centers of power, as well as external and internal influences before looking at regional and then geo-strategic impacts. As I write this review essay, there have been attacks on the Ba'th Party buildings by rocket propelled grenades, and in Egypt clashes between protestors and the Egyptian Army are on the rise.

Nikolaos Van Dam has written a highly sophisticated account of Syrian Ba’th regime under the Asad entitled, The Strugglle for Power in Syria: Politics and Society under Asad and the Ba’th Party, (New York: I. B. Tauris, 2011).  This 2011 edition is the fourth revised version of the book by the former Dutch Ambassador to Iraq, Egypt, Turkey and Indonesia.  Readers will understand that under the dictatorship of Syria’s Hafez al-Asad and currently of his son Bashar, the Ba’th Party is not monolithic, but has regional influences and party leaders in the Hama, Damascus, Latakia and the Ildib branches to name a few. Starting in March 1963 the book dissects a series of military coups and counter-coups balancing the points of view of Alawi (a Shiite minority sect) with non-Alawi (Sunni, Druze) officers.  By 1966, the purge of Druze officers from the Syrian Army was complete, leaving a struggle for control of Syria between the Alawis, represented by Hafez al-Asad, and Salah Jadid, a Sunni. This struggle had Jadid being undermined due to his rejection of pro-western Arab states, and Asad calling for a tahweel ishtiraki (socialist transformation) that would reintegrate Syria into the Arab world.  The book also highlights the rivalry between the Iraqi Ba’th and Syrian Ba’th with Radio Damascus referring to Saddam Hussein as “...the tribal tikriti, fascist clique!”  In the end Asad would develop a leadership cult balancing regional, sectarian, and tribal blocs using the Ba’th Party architecture to survive.  Page 145 contains an excellent bibliography of Syrian Ba’thist memoirs for the true specialist.

Steven A. Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations has published an excellent book that will help readers navigate the 2011 Egyptian Revolution.  The Struggle for Egypt: From Nasser to Tahrir Square, (New York: Oxford University Press, 2012) was released early on in the revolution's timeline and provides an excellent introduction to the multi-dimensional nature of Egyptian politics. A political landscape long repressed by a series of military officers who rose to the presidency beginning with Muhammad Neguib in 1952, Nasser in 1954, Sadat in 1970, and finally Mubarak in 1981.  Readers will gain an appreciation for the leftist and liberal roots of the January 25, 2011 revolution and the events that brought this to a head.  Cook takes a multi-disciplinary approach to the revolution, discussing social, diplomatic, economic, political, and military factors that Egypt has faced since 1952. His section on the economy shows the erosion of a middle class, and a small minority of wealthy Egyptians completely isolated from the day to day suffering of the masses within Egypt. The section also highlights the rise of an alternative economy within the Egyptian military, which may control 40 percent of the country’s economy from military hardware and cell-phones to dairies and bakeries. When Sadat was President, bread riots were quelled only by the army baking bread to make up the demand.

The book contains an excellent synopsis of Gamal Mubarak, and the reasons he was let go from Bank of America for overt conflict of interest in the restructuring of Egyptian debt through Bank of America. His dismissal lead to the acquirement of commissions from his employer and the Egyptian state owned banks. Gamal Mubarak would be groomed to take over from his ailing father, a situation considered intolerable by large segments of the population including elements within the army. Cook explores the massive security apparatus of the state that has suppressed any real political and economic alternatives, leaving the perception that it is either the despotism of Mubarak or his cronies or that of the Muslim Brotherhood.  Businessmen allied with the Mubaraks would literally get away with murder, such as the 2006 sinking of the ferry Salam Boccaccio in which 1,100 people died, and the owner escaped a trial for gross negligence with the help of the regime and pay offs. The demonstrators in Tahrir Square would choose January 25th, 2011 specifically because this was Police Day, and the organizers wanted to highlight the hypocrisy of celebrating a police apparatus that tortures and humiliates its own people. Chapters in the book feature U.S.-Egyptian relations dating back from the Eisenhower all the way to the Obama administrations which correspond with Egyptian leaders from Nasser to Mubarak.  A highly recommended book.

Of note, in Spring 2012, Wael Ghonim will be publishing his account of the Egyptian Revolution in a new book, Revolution 2.0, (New York: Houghton-Mifflin Harcourt, 2012).  He is writing the book in Arabic and will be released in English on January 25, 2012, in time for the first anniversary of Tahrir Square. I look forward to reading about how the Google™ executive used technology to leverage the events of Tahrir Square and his experiences with the former Egyptian regime.

28 November SWJ Roundup

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 5:48am

US Naval Institute Daily - USNI

Real Clear World - RCP

Afghanistan

Afghan President Says Second Troop Transition to Begin Soon - VOA

NATO Giving Afghans More Areas to Control - NYT

Afghan Forces will Control 18 New Areas - WP

Karzai: Afghan Forces to Take Lead in More Areas - AP

Afghans: Fire from Pakistan Led to Attack - AP

After Strike in Pakistan, Rage and Damage Control - NYT

Pakistan Warns NATO Attack Threatens Afghanistan Peace - Reuters

A Safer Afghanistan - WP opinion

 

Pakistan

In Fog of War, Rift Widens Between US and Pakistan - NYT

US, Pakistan Offer Different Versions of Attack on Border Post - McClatchy

Pakistan Warns NATO Attack Threatens Afghanistan Peace - Reuters

Afghans: Fire from Pakistan Led to Attack - AP

Pakistan Denies it Set Off Attack - BBC

Pakistan Says NATO Ignored Its Pleas During Attack - AP

After Strike in Pakistan, Rage and Damage Control - NYT

Pakistan Orders US Out of Airbase - VOA

Pakistan Permanently Closes Borders to NATO after Air Strike - TT

Deadly Airstrike Renews Focus on US-Pakistani Ties - VOA

NATO Strike 'Couldn't Come at a Worse Time' - CSM

NATO Airstrike Strains US-Pakistan Relations - WP

Rage Grips Pakistan Over NATO Attack - Reuters

Clinton, Panetta Monitor Reports of Pakistan Border Incident - AFPS

2 Key US Senators Call for Tough Line with Pakistan - AP

 

Iraq

As US Troops Leave, What is the Legacy of 8 Years of War? - McClatchy

Iraq Emerges from War a Society Divided by Sect - AP

Car Bomb Kills 11 at Iraqi Prison - BBC

Suicide Car Bomber Kills 15 People in Iraq - AP

Bomber Hits Iraq Military Base, 11 Dead - Reuters

Shell and Iraq in New Energy Deal - BBC

 

Iran

Iran's Parliament Votes to Reduce Ties With Britain - VOA

Tehran Votes to Expel Britain's Ambassador - TT

Iran Parliament Votes to Downgrade Relations with UK - BBC

Iranian Lawmakers Vote to Expel British Ambassador - LAT

 

Egypt

Long Lines Form as Egyptians Vote in Historic Election - NYT

Egypt Votes in Post-Mubarak Polls - BBC

Voting Starts in Egypt's Landmark Elections - AP

Voters Queue in Egypt's First Post-Mubarak Election - Reuters

Outside Tahrir Square, Silent Majority is Also Divided - WP

A Question of Election Timing in Egypt - WT

Egypt Vote Tests Troubled Political Transition - Reuters

How Will the Muslim Brotherhood Do? - CSM

Youth Leader Straddles Line of Revolution and Electoral Change - NYT

A Look at Major Alliances for Egypt’s Parliamentary Elections - VOA

Egypt’s Election Process - VOA

 

Syria

Isolating Syria, Arab League Imposes Broad Sanctions - NYT

Arab League Approves Syria Sanctions - WP

Arab League Approves Sanctions Against Syria - LAT

Arab League Sanctions for Syria - BBC

Syria Hit with New Sanctions: Will this Weaken Assad? - CSM

Arab Sanctions Tighten Noose on Syria's Assad - Reuters

In Unprecedented Step, Arab League Sanctions Syria - AP

 

Yemen

Yemen Names Basindwa Interim PM - BBC

Yemen Independent Leader to Form Government - AP

Yemeni Shi'ite Rebels Attack Sunni Targets in North, 21 Killed - VOA

 

Middle East / North Africa

A Battle Is Raging for the Soul of Israeli Society - AP

UAE Activists Jailed for Criticizing Government - VOA

Kuwait Opposition Calls for All-Night Protest - AP

Islamist PJD Party Wins Morocco Poll - BBC

Moderate Islamist Party to Lead Coalition Government in Morocco - NYT

Morocco's Arab Spring Election Won by Islamists - AP

Latest Developments in Arab World's Unrest - AP

 

US Department of Defense

Battlefield Technology Put to Test in Exercise at White Sands - S&S

UVA Student Project Aims to Allow Women in Combat - VP

Air Force Academy Adapts to Pagans, Druids, Witches and Wiccans - LAT

Top Marine Says Service Embracing Gay Ban Repeal - AP

USS Enterprise, Carrier that Changed Everything, Turns 50 - S&S

 

United States

Horse Sense at Border Pays Off - USAT

2 Occupy Demonstrations Face Eviction - NYT

Occupy Protesters Wear Out Welcome in LA, Philadelphia - USAT

Eviction Deadline Passes for Occupy LA - LA

Buying Off Occupy LA - LAT editorial

No Thanks to TSA - WT editorial

Detaining Terrorism Suspects - WP opinion

 

Africa

Electoral Commission Says DR Congo '99% Ready' for Election - VOA

Congo Votes Amid Expectations of Fraud and Fears of Violence - NYT

DR Congo Votes in Tense Election - BBC

Congo Polls Open After Weekend of Violence - AP

Congo Election Outcome All But Certain, Violence Likely - LAT

Nigeria Islamist Militants Boko Haram 'Attack Yobe' - BBC

4 Dead, Churches Burned in North Nigeria Attack - AP

Child Labor Probed in Ivory Coast's Cocoa Fields - AP

 

Americas

International Banks Have Aided Mexican Drug Gangs - LAT

Former Mexico Ruling Party Clears Way for Nominee - AP

Pena Nieto Starts Mexico President Campaign - BBC

Mexico Arrests 3 in Slaying of Governor's Guards - AP

Colombian Hostage on Way Home, 4 Others Killed - BBC

 

Asia Pacific

Hotel Bomb Kills 3, Wounds 27 in Philippines - AP

Filipino Muslim Rebel Faction Leader Falls Ill - AP

'Serious Abuses' in Burma Despite Reforms - Reuters

 

Europe

Euro Crisis Sapping Investors’ Confidence - WP

Russia's Putin Accepts Presidential Nomination - VOA

Russia: Putin Warns West as He Launches Presidential Bid - AP

In Russia, Evidence of Misstep by Putin - NYT

A Private Push for Public Justice in Russia - WP

German Police Remove Anti-Nuclear Protesters From Rail Track - VOA

Germany Clears Nuclear Protesters - BBC

How Did German Neo-Nazis Go Undetected? - AP

Are Germany and France Drifting Apart? - NYT opinion

Croatia, the Next Greece - WT opinion