Small Wars Journal

Over the Horizon: Dead or Alive, COIN is not the Culprit

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:40pm

Over the Horizon: Dead or Alive, COIN is not the Culprit

by Robert Farley

World Politics Review

Why does COIN seem insufficient? Military institutions rely on narratives in order to continue to operate. The Soviet Army sustained itself for 30 years, and the U.S. Army perhaps longer, on the narrative of defeating the Wehrmacht in World War II. The stories that make up these narratives don’t need to be accurate, but they do need to be compelling, and COIN wars just don’t make for good stories. They take too long; the politics are complicated; the enemies aren’t terrible enough; and the victories aren’t clear-cut enough. Even COIN advocates argue that counterinsurgency conflicts will be long, bloody, expensive and unsatisfying. That is in part why the U.S. Army believed, in 1973, that the counterinsurgency efforts practiced in the later years of the Vietnam War would not provide a useful foundation for rebuilding the force. Gentile, too, may well be right to think that COIN cannot provide a useful model for the future of today’s U.S. Army, even if he regularly overstates his case.

1 December SWJ Roundup

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 4:48am

US Naval Institute Daily - USNI

Real Clear World - RCP

Afghanistan

Elite Marine Role in Afghanistan Key to 2014 Exit - AP

Marines Show US Institutions to Afghan Officials - AP

Study Shows Gains in Afghan Health - VOA

3 Afghan Policemen Die in Roadside Bombing - AP

Acid Sprayed over Afghan Family - BBC

ISAF Operations Summary - AFPS

 

Pakistan

Obama Refrains From a Formal ‘I’m Sorry’ to Pakistan - NYT

US Denies NATO Attack on Pakistani Troops Deliberate - Reuters

NATO: Pakistan Resumes Some Cooperation - AP

Pakistan Dismisses Calls to Attend Afghan Conference - VOA

Pakistan: NATO Attack Could Hurt War on Terror - Reuters

Pakistan Drops BBC World News - VOA

Bomb Targets Official in Peshawar - Reuters

 

Iraq

Joint Statement Affirms Strong US-Iraq Partnership - AFPS

Biden, Maliki Hail ‘New Phase’ in US-Iraq Relations - WP

Biden Sees ‘New Path’ after US Pullout - WT

Talks on Iraq NATO Mission Stall Over Immunity - AP

Iraq Mulling US Bid to Keep Custody of Detainee - Reuters

Iraqi Market Bomb Attack Kills 10 - BBC

Bomb Blast Kills 10, Wounds 25 in Iraqi Town - Reuters

Gunmen Kill 7 at Home of Iraq Sunni Militia Leader - AP

 

Iran

Britain Increases Pressure on Iran After Attacks - VOA

Britain Shuts its Tehran Embassy, Expels Iran's Diplomats - LAT

Britain Orders Iran's Diplomats to Leave UK - AP

Iran Likely to Dominate EU Talks - BBC

Britain, EU to Intensify Pressure on Iran - Reuters

Iran’s Isolation Could Complicate Nuclear Issue - NYT

US Uncertain Israel Would Advise Before Iran Strike - Reuters

Iran Faces Increased Isolation - WP

The Shadow War Against Iran - WT editorial

The Iran Threat - LAT opinion

 

Egypt

Egyptians Await Poll Results; Islamists Claim Lead - VOA

Early Results in Egypt Show a Mandate for Islamists - NYT

Muslim Brotherhood Claims Strong Showing in Elections - WP

Egyptians Await Poll Results, Islamists See Gains - Reuters

Egypt's Islamists Stress Pragmatism - VOA

Islamists on Collision Course With Military After Vote - Bloomberg

Egypt’s Christians Prepare for New Political Climate - NYT

 

Israel / Palestinians

US Uncertain Israel Would Advise Before Iran Strike - Reuters

Palestinians to Receive Payments, Israel Says - NYT

Israel to Release Funds to Palestinians - WP

Released Palestinians Build Houses, Marry, Study - AP

 

Middle East / North Africa

Saudis Accused of New Repression - BBC

Syria Frees Prisoners, Continues Crackdown - VOA

Yemeni Forces Shell City of Taiz, 3 Killed - Reuters

Islamist Parties and Democracy - WP editorial

Next for the Arab Spring - WP opinion

Bahrain, a Vital US Ally - WT opinion

 

US Department of Defense

Panetta ‘Doomsday’ Scenario May Exaggerate Cuts - Bloomberg

Panetta Urges Leaders to Make Tough Choices - AFPS

Dempsey Shares Troops' Budget Anxiety, Urges Patience - AFPS

For Marine, A Rush to Judgment and Belated Vindication - WT

Judge Won't Step Down in Fort Hood Shooting Case - AP

Flawed Army Future Combat Systems a Costly Lesson - Bloomberg

US Army Orders Carl-Gustaf 84mm Recoilless Rifles - MT

Air Force to Extend Mission of Unmanned Space Plane - LAT

Inside the Ring - WT

 

United States

Cybersecurity Bill Raises Privacy Concerns - WP

Overloaded VA Should Seek Outside Help for Mental Health Care - S&S

‘Occupy’ Protesters Evicted in Two Cities - NYT

Foreign Aid Is Not a Rathole - NYT opinion

War on Terror Doesn’t Justify Retreat on Rights - WT opinion

 

United Kingdom

Britain Becomes Even More Wary of Unity - WP

Spy Center Seeking Code Breakers - BBC

 

Canada

Canadian Removed From UN Terrorist Blacklist - AP

 

World

New Zealand Cleanest Gov’t; N. Korea, Somalia Most Corrupt - NYT

Watchdog: Corruption Ignited This Year's Protests - AP

Global Corruption Index Reflects Arab Spring Unrest - Reuters

 

Africa

African Delegates Demand Immediate Action at Climate Conference - VOA

AU, Carter Center Urge Congolese to Accept Vote Results - VOA

Africa Observers Hail Congo Polls - BBC

Opposition Candidates Call on Congo to Annul Vote - AP

Nigerian Terrorists Pose Threat to US - WT

Congo's Kamerhe Withdraws Call to Annul Elections - Reuters

Ivory Coast Ex-Leader Charges Revealed - BBC

Ivory Coast: Gbagbo's ICC Court Appearance Set for Monday - Reuters

Somali Pirates Release Singaporean Tanker, Keep 4 Hostages - VOA

Somali Pirates Jailed in France - BBC

 

Americas

US-Mexico Border: Tunnel Yields 32 Tons of Pot - WP

Latest Mexico Border Tunnel May Have Stamp of Sinaloa - LAT

'Major' Tunnel Found on US-Mexico Border - BBC

Local Officials Reprimanded in Mexico Slaying Case - AP

Honduran Army Assumes Police Role - BBC

US Cleric: American Jailed in Cuba in Good Spirits - AP

Jamaica Gov't Minister Resigns Amid Investigations - AP

Tensions Rise in Guyana as Vote Counting Drags On - AP

 

Asia Pacific

China Military Condemns US-Australia Military Pact - AP

China, SEA Neighbors to Patrol Golden Triangle - Reuters

Taiwanese Youth Losing Taste for China Fight - AP

Inflation Fears Easing, China Turns to Lifting Growth - NYT

Burmese President Welcomes "Historic" Clinton Visit - VOA

Burma Hails 'New Chapter' with US - BBC

Greeted Quietly, Clinton Arrives in Burma - NYT

Landmark Clinton Visit to Burma Includes Weapons Concern - LAT

Clinton Focusing on Reforms in Burma - WP

Clinton Tests Reforms on Historic Visit to Burma - AP

US Wants Burma to Deepen Changes - Reuters

In Burma Countryside, Reforms Bring Little Relief - NYT

Study Shows Worse Picture of Meltdown in Japan - NYT

Study Shows Deeper Meltdown at Japan Nuke Reactor - AP

 

Central Asia

Atambayev Inaugurated as Kyrgyzstan’s President - VOA

Kyrgyzstan Swears in Its New President - AP

 

Europe

European Finance Ministers Look to Strengthen EU Rules - NYT

Central Banks Move as Europe Crisis Deepens - WP

Money Flows, but What Euro Zone Lacks Is Glue - NYT

Russia Targets US-Linked Election Watchdog - WP

Watchdog Complains of Pressure on Russian Voters - AP

Political Standoff Escalates in South Ossetia Over Vote - NYT

Subway Bombers in Belarus Sentenced to Death - AP

Greeks Hold First Major Strike Under New Government - Reuters

Italy Judge, Politician, Cop Nabbed in Mob Arrests - AP

 

South Asia

India: World's Biggest Democracy, Parliament Doesn't Work - Reuters

India Traders Strike over Reforms - BBC

Buddhists Choose India over China - WP

A Tale of Two Surges

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 1:37am

A Tale of Two Surges by Victor Davis Hanson, National Review.

BLUF:

Continuity of American command, an ironclad commitment from the president to finish the job, diplomatic and military unity, and far more help from everyday Afghans are critical to the surge. Without all that, more troops and better tactics still will not bring the sort of success that we saw in Iraq.

Do Oligarchies Create Insurgencies?

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 7:15am

Do Oligarchies Create Insurgencies? By Mark Safranski, Zenpundit.

One of the tenets of pop-centric COIN is that better governance will deliver the loyalty of the people who are the center of gravity over whom the insurgent and state contest. This usually means cajoling the state to reform and remove the worst abuses that serve to politically fuel the insurgency. Occasionally this is successful (El Salvador), frequently it is not (South Vietnam, Afghanistan) and in other cases it may be irrelevant as the method is eschewed in favor of indiscriminate brute force and punitive expeditions (Sri Lanka, Soviet COIN) but it begs the question of: “What kind of governance is most likely to create insurgencies in the first place?” …

The Future of Land Wars

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 7:07am

The Future of Land Wars: Intense, High-Tech, Urban, Coastal by David Axe, AOL Defense.

After the year 2020 ground wars will be more intense and concentrated in the world's crowded coastal cities. That's the consensus from a panel of experts including current and retired Army officers and professional analysts.

Over the past decade, the U.S. Army and Marine Corps have adapted to the low-intensity wars in Iraq and Afghanistan by abandoning traditional heavy weaponry for lighter, more mobile systems -- and by adding billions of dollars in aerial-surveillance equipment. While perhaps suited to occupation duty, this gear might not last long against a determined, high-tech foe on a coastal, urban battlefield.

The experts differ on how U.S. ground forces should change. But they all agree that big changes are necessary if American forces expect to win the next ground war. Five experts weigh in…

Criminal Insurgencies in Mexico and the Americas

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 6:51am

Special Issue: Criminal Insurgencies in Mexico and the Americas: The Gangs and Cartels Wage War

Small Wars & Insurgencies

Volume 22, Issue 5, 2011

The following Small Wars Journal El Centro fellows took part in this important new publication on criminal insurgencies: Malcolm Beith, Robert J. Bunker, Steven S. Dudley, Samuel Logan, John P. Sullivan, and Graham H. Turbiville Jr.

Small Wars & Insurgencies (Taylor & Francis) is directed at providing a forum for the discussion of the historical, political, social, economic and psychological aspects of insurgency, counter-insurgency, limited war, peacekeeping operations and the use of force as an instrument of policy. Including an authoritative review section, its aim is to provide an outlet for historians, political scientists, policy makers and practitioners to discuss and debate theoretical and practical issues related to the past, present and future of this important area of both international and domestic relations.

Small Wars & Insurgencies

Volume 22, Issue 5, 2011

Special Issue: Criminal Insurgencies in Mexico and the Americas: The Gangs and Cartels Wage War

Available online: 29 Nov 2011 at http://www.tandfonline.com/toc/fswi20/22/5

This edited work will later be available as a Routledge book for more general distribution.

Editor's Note

Dr Robert J. Bunker, pages 716-717

Preface: Los Zetas and a new barbarism

Samuel Logan, pages 718-727

Grand Strategic Overview: Epochal Change and New Realities for the United States

Robert J. Bunker, pages 728-741

This grand strategic overview highlights and analyzes the influence of epochal change on the state and conflict and the new realities with which the United States must now contend. This deep context is being provided so that (1) the belligerent and politicized non-state entities that have emerged in Mexico and the Americas can be better understood within the larger three-front grand strategic temporal conflict the US is now engaged in; and (2) the stark realities that the US faces – such as loss of unilateral world dominance, increasing debt and ongoing deficits, shifting demographics, inability to staunch the flow of and demand for illicit drugs, and an increasing prison population – are highlighted. Finally, this essay finishes with a discussion of the many important contributions contained in this edited work.

Part 1: Theory

Rethinking Insurgency: Criminality, Spirituality, and Societal Warfare in the Americas

John P. Sullivan & Robert J. Bunker, pages 742-763

Driven by globalization, Internet communications technology (ICT), and new economic forms the nature of states may be changing. Transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) – including what are commonly known as cartels – are early adopters to the new political/economic landscape. In addition to seeking to rule the illicit economy, criminal actors (networked cartels and gangs) are challenging states through high-order violence and leveraging nascent social/spiritual movements (narcocultura) to potentially usher in a new political dynamic. These violent non-state actors (criminal soldiers) are insurgent actors. They are waging new forms of insurgency – criminal and possibly spiritual – that have the potential to reconfigure states.

Integrating Feral Cities and Third Phase Cartels/Third Generation Gangs Research: The Rise of Criminal (Narco) City Networks and BlackFor

Robert J. Bunker & John P. Sullivan, pages 764-786

This essay addresses and integrates ‘feral cities’ with ‘third phase cartel’ and ‘third generation gangs’ (3GEN Gangs) research. The feral cities diagnostic tool will be expanded from three levels (green, yellow, and red) to five (adding purple and black). This will be accomplished by means of the addition of two new levels that model the shift from ferality (de-institutionalization) to criminal re-institutionalization of urban social and political structures around new patterns of living. Such processes set the stage for the projected emergence of the BlackFor (Black Force) within the Americas. BlackFor represents a confederation of illicit non-state actors – essentially a postmodern form of societal cancer – linked together by means of a network of criminalized and criminal (narco) cities as are now arising.

Part 2: Mexico

A Broken Mexico: Allegations of Collusion Between the Sinaloa Cartel and Mexican Political Parties

Malcolm Beith, pages 787-806

The Mexican drug war, in full swing since December 2006, has now claimed more than 40,000 lives. Dozens of high-level cartel operatives have been captured or killed, yet the leadership of one cartel, from Sinaloa in northwestern Mexico, has remained apparently untouched. The apparent lack of a crackdown on the Sinaloa Cartel has spurred criticisms of the Calderón administration, as well as US authorities aiding in the drug fight – some critics contend that the Sinaloa Cartel has enjoyed protection from the authorities. The Sinaloa Cartel's history of protection and collusion by authorities goes back a long way – during the reign of the PRI from 1929 to 2000, Sinaloa's drug traffickers were allowed to operate with near-total impunity. But mounting evidence – captures and deaths of high-level operatives from Sinaloa as well as arrests of relatives of the leadership – suggests that the claims of collusion against the current Mexican administration are false.

Just Where do Mexican Cartel Weapons Come From?

David A. Kuhn & Robert J. Bunker, pages 807-834

This essay will provide an overview of the major policy positions articulated in the literature pertaining to Mexican cartel weapons origins. The four major positions related to firearms are those of the US Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (BATF), the Mexican government under the Felipe Calderón administration, US interest groups focusing on firearms regulation, and US interest groups focusing on firearms deregulation. The essay will then analyze the major sources of Mexican cartel weapons and then provide conclusions stemming from this analysis and the future trends identified. A component of this assessment will be the provision of gross estimates of the weapons sources themselves in order to show that Mexican cartel weapons origins are diverse in nature and have been increasing in sophistication over time from basic civilian arms into paramilitary and military arms. Part of the reason for this increase in sophistication has been the rise of Los Zetas which has resulted in a deadly ‘arms race’ taking place between the various Mexican cartels.

Silver over the border: US law enforcement corruption on the Southwest Border

Graham H. Turbiville Jr, pages 835-859

US national security is seriously challenged by the more visible appearance of American law enforcement and security corruption among organizations charged with policing and protecting the US–Mexican border. A burgeoning number of allegations, criminal investigations, indictments, and convictions directed against US law enforcement personnel calls into question the fundamental integrity of US border security forces and leadership, as well as the willingness or capability of key agencies and their executive branch leadership to effect reforms. For the United States, such law enforcement and other official US Government corruption acts like corrosive acid on the legitimacy of these institutions and upon domestic and allied trust in their integrity and competence.

Part 3: The Americas

Security, Stability and Sovereignty Challenges of Politicized Gangs and Insurgents in the Americas

Max Manwaring, pages 860-889

There are numerous small, irregular, asymmetric, and revolutionary wars ongoing around the world today. In these conflicts, there is much to be learned by anyone who has the responsibility of dealing with, analyzing, or reporting on national security threats generated by state and non-state actors. The cases we examine (Mexico, Jamaica, Colombia, Argentina, and Peru) demonstrate how the weakening of national stability, security, and sovereignty can indirectly and directly contribute to personal and collective insecurity, radical political change, and possible state failure. These cases are also significant beyond their uniqueness. The common political objective in each diverse case is one way or another to control governments, and/or coerce radical change in discrete political-social-economic systems. This defines war as well as insurgency, and shifts the asymmetric global security challenge from abstract to real.

Central America Besieged: Cartels and Maras Country Threat Analysis

Steven S. Dudley, pages 890-913

The following is a threat assessment of the seven countries that make up Central America. That region is struggling to control burgeoning street gangs and organized criminal groups which have overrun its poor and ill-prepared security forces. The results are clear: rising crime and homicide rates throughout the region; corruption and instability within the governments. The two gangs that challenge authority are transnational in nature but pose less a threat to national security than they do to everyday life. Their drug peddling and extortion have shattered entire communities and forced the governments to reallocate important resources. The governments' strategy of jailing suspected gang members en masse has arguably made them stronger rather than weaker. Meanwhile, the organized criminal groups have deeply penetrated governments at nearly every level. They control swaths of territory, co-opting these areas, as well as the local governments, for their own purposes. Opposition to them is often futile. Mexican-based organizations are increasingly using violent tactics to displace their rivals. The governments of the region seem unprepared to meet the challenge.

30 November SWJ Roundup

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 6:42am

US Naval Institute Daily - USNI

Real Clear World - RCP

Afghanistan

Afghan Officials Voice Scant Remorse to Pakistan - WP

Pakistan Will Skip Afghan Conference - NYT

Angry Pakistan to Boycott Afghanistan Talks - Reuters

Afghan President Urges Pakistan to Attend Bonn Conference - VOA

Pakistan Rejects Afghan Plea to Attend Conference - AP

Dempsey Makes Case for Progress in Afghanistan - AFPS

Survey: Afghans Living Longer, Fewer Infants Die - AP

NATO Service Member Dies in Afghanistan - AP

ISAF Operations Summary - AFPS

How to Win in Afghanistan - WP opinion

 

Pakistan

US Scrambles to Contain Pakistan Fallout - AP

Pakistan PM: No More 'Business as Usual' With US - Reuters

Pakistan Steps Up Anti-US Rhetoric After Attack - AP

Pakistan Army: NATO Attack Was Blatant Aggression - Reuters

Dempsey: NATO, Pakistan Working to Improve Relations - AFPS

US Prepares to Vacate Pakistan Air Base - Reuters

Clark to Lead US Centcom’s Pakistan Border Investigation - AFPS

Pakistani Cable TV Blocks BBC Over Documentary - AP

 

Iraq

As US Troops Leave for Good, Biden Visits Iraq - NYT

Biden: US Troop Exit Marks New Beginning With Iraq - AP

Biden Says U.S. Pullout Brings New Relations With Iraq - Reuters

Biden Arrives in Iraq as Drawdown Enters Final Month - AFPS

Biden Visits Iraq Ahead of US Troop Departure - AP

Iranian Influence Seeping into Iraq - AP

Soldiers in Iraq Pack Gear for Departure - AFPS

 

Iran

Iran Protesters Storm UK Embassy in Tehran - BBC

Iranian Protesters Storm British Diplomatic Compounds in Tehran - VOA

Hardline Iranian Students Storm British Embassy in Tehran - WP

Protesters Storm British Embassy in Tehran - NYT

Iran Protesters Storm British Embassy in Tehran - LAT

Iranian Protesters Storm British Embassy in Tehran - AP

Iranian Protesters Storm British Diplomatic Compounds - Reuters

Britain Evacuates Diplomats After Tehran Embassy Attack - NYT

UK Diplomats Pulled Out of Iran - BBC

Norway Closes Embassy in Iran After Brits Attacked - AP

UN Council Condemns Attack on UK Embassy in Iran - Reuters

Images Show Devastation at Iran Base After Blast - NYT

Deja Vu in Iran? - WP

 

Egypt

Egypt's First Round of Voting Nears End - VOA

After Second Day of Voting Islamists Offer Challenge to Generals - NYT

Egypt Voters Turn Out for Second Day of elections - LAT

Voters Say Election Means Protests Can Now Cease - WT

Egypt: Partial Results Show Islamist Lead in Vote - AP

Muslim Brotherhood Says Leads Egypt's Vote Count - Reuters

Egyptians Keep Voting as Military Leaders Tout High Turnout - WP

Egypt's Military Takes Credit for Election Turnout - AP

Islamists Expect Gains as Egypt Counts Votes - Reuters

Egypt's Christians Try to Stem Islamists in Vote - AP

 

Syria

Pressure Mounts on Syria, Government Raids Continue - VOA

UN Rights Forum Poised to Condemn Syria - Reuters

Turkey Increases Pressure on Syria Over Oppression - NYT

Syria Hit With Turkey Sanctions, Army Losses Mount - Reuters

Turkey Intensifies Sanctions Against Syrian Regime - NYT

Turkey Imposes Sanctions on Syria - BBC

Damascus Mulls Arab League Sanctions - VOA

Syrian Rebel Ambush Said to Kill 3 Soldiers - Reuters

 

Middle East / North Africa

Calls for Restraint on Israel-Lebanon Border - NYT

Gaza Official: Palestinian President Opposes Unity - AP

Outgoing Defense Minister to Be Kuwait PM - Reuters

Freed UAE Activists Vow to Press Reform Campaign - AP

Islamist Named as New Morocco PM - BBC

Moroccan Islamists Face Tough Ride at Government Helm - Reuters

Libya: Capital Transforms, for Better and for Worse - NYT

Gadhafi's Daughter Calls for Libya Overthrow - AP

Tunisia Again Extends State of Emergency - AP

Tunisia Secular, Islamist Students Clash on Campus - Reuters

Latest Developments in Arab World's Unrest - AP

The Arab Awakening and Israel - NYT opinion

 

WikiLeaks

Manning’s Lawyer Hints at Strategy in WikiLeaks Case - WP

 

US Department of Defense

World Faces Strategic Inflection Point, Dempsey Says - AFPS

Chairman Dismisses Notion of Military in Decline - AFPS

Senate Budget Vote Backs Guard Joining JCS - AFT

DOD Works with Congress on Dover Review - AFPS

Services Announce First Fiscal 2012 Recruiting Numbers - AFPS

Military’s Aggressive Rape Prosecution Has Pitfalls - McClatchy

House to Vote on Faster Airport Screening for Troops - S&S

Medal of Honor Recipient Suing BAE for Character Damage - S&S

 

United States

Senate Approves Requiring Military Custody in Terror Cases - NYT

Senate Defies Obama Veto Threat in Terrorist Custody Vote - WT

Stage Set for Fight Over Detainee Legislation - WP

Lawmakers Try to Slip in Hundreds of Earmarks - WP

LA Police Arrest at Least a Dozen Occupy Protesters - LAT

Three Inconvenient Truths for Occupy Wall Street - LAT opinion

 

United Kingdom

Public Sector Strike Takes Effect - BBC

Britons Strike as Government Extends Austerity Measures - NYT

 

Africa

Congo Opposition Candidate Calls for Annulment of Vote - VOA

In Congo Election Whirlwind Votes May Become Victims, Too - NYT

Call to Annul 'Rigged' Congo Vote - BBC

UN Committee Sanctions Congo Militia Chief - Reuters

Ex-President of Ivory Coast Arrives in the Hague to Face Charges - NYT

Ivory Coast: Gbagbo Faces ICC Murder and Rape Charges - BBC

4 Somali Soldiers Killed in Suicide Bomb Attack - AP

 

Americas

Latin America Poverty at New Low - BBC

Anti-Violence Activist Slain in Mexico - AP

Son of Slain Gulf Cartel Leader Arrested in Mexico - AP

FARC Blames Colombia for Captives' Deaths - AP

Honduras Turns to Army to Battle Drug Gangs - Reuters

Chile Seeks US Naval Officer Over 1973 Death - BBC

Cleric Hopes to Meet With Jailed US Man in Cuba - AP

 

Asia Pacific

Georgetown Students Shed Light on China’s Nuclear Weapons Tunnels - WP

North Korea Reports Progress on New Reactor - NYT

Clinton in S. Korea Ahead of Historic Burma Visit - VOA

Clinton Arrives in Burma to Assess Reforms - NYT

Clinton’s Visit to Burma Raises Hopes and Concerns - NYT

Clinton's Burma Trip Marks Significant Shift in Policy - LAT

Clinton Heads to a Hopeful Burma - WP

Clinton in Burma to Urge Reform - Reuters

Groups Press Clinton on Burmese Human Rights - VOA

Burma: Reforms Win Over Some of the Country’s Skeptics - NYT

US Outreach to Burma May Prompt Fuller Disclosure of N. Korea Ties - VOA

Analysis: Clinton Gives Burma Respect It Craves - AP

Suspect in Bombings Arrested in Philippines - AP

Bill Limiting Street Protests Moves Ahead in Malaysia - NYT

 

Europe

EU Defense Ministers May Endorse Pooling Resources - AP

Europe Fights for Euro's Survival - VOA

Eurozone Ministers Try to Beef Up Rescue Fund - AP

European Officials to Turn to IMF - WP

Europe: Markets and Masses Wait for Merkel to Blink - LAT

US Commander Condemns Attacks on Kosovo Force - AFPS

South Ossetian Election Results Annulled - AP

South Ossetian Declares Herself President - AP

Norwegian Mass Killer Ruled Insane, Likely to Avoid Jail - Reuters

Norway Killer Found Insane, Unfit for Prison - AP

Germany’s Denial, Europe’s Disaster - NYT editorial

Band of Brothers or Dysfunctional Family?

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 1:24pm

Band of Brothers or Dysfunctional Family?:  A Military Perspective on Coalition Challenges During Stability Operations by Dr. Russell W. Glenn, RAND.

Counterinsurgency and other stability operations seldom present a nation with trials that threaten its very survival, barring cases in which that nation is the target of insurgents. Bonds between coalition members are therefore weaker than when threat of annihilation reinforces mutual dependence. Such situations are further complicated by the use of force likely not being the primary implement for attaining ultimate success. Devoid of a preeminent threat and denied primary dependence on armed forces, core coalition objectives tend to be political rather than military in character and include counterinsurgency, nation building, developing government capacity, and providing humanitarian assistance — activities often associated with stability operations. Armed forces are not staffed or trained to meet the long-term demands of many of these tasks. An alliance or coalition must therefore incorporate participation by other government agencies and — ultimately — that of the indigenous government and its population more than is expected during conventional combat operations. Recent contingencies have also seen commercial enterprises, militias, intergovernmental organizations, and nongovernmental organizations become key participants in these undertakings. The result is coalitions of a size seldom seen and with a number of affiliations rarely, if ever, approached before the late 20th century. This monograph investigates the dramatic expansion of challenges confronting alliances and coalitions today and thereafter considers potential solutions that include questioning the conception of what constitutes a coalition in today's world.

What happens when ‘demand’ for the Army exceeds its ‘supply’?

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 1:04pm

In a piece written for AOL Defense, Nathan Freier, a senior fellow at CSIS and a retired U.S. Army officer, implores policymakers to think carefully about “known unknowns” before taking an axe to the Pentagon’s ground forces.

Employing former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s now-famous taxonomy, Freier asserts that the Pentagon, in keeping with its long-established culture, is now making thorough preparation for its preferred “known knowns.” These include China’s rising military power and Iran’s regional ambitions (addressed by the new Air-Sea Battle Concept), North Korea (presumably another network-centric targeting exercise), and post-al Qaeda terrorism (to be managed by the growing CIA-JSOC partnership). For all of the “known knowns” the Pentagon has its plans well in hand.

But what about the “known unknowns,” what Freier terms the “unacceptable disorder” that all serious planners realize the world will toss up and which Freier asserts U.S. ground forces will inevitably have to deal with? How do these unwelcome, unmanageable, and murky situations figure into the Pentagon’s plans?

Freier has a list of scenarios that policymakers don’t want to think about but which seem even more inevitable than the “known knowns”:

What options should the United States retain to respond to contagious violence in the Middle East? What might the United States have to do in case of civil war in Mexico or Cuba, regime collapse in nuclear-armed North Korea or Pakistan or the violent disintegration of Russia? Further, what role, if any, might U.S. forces play in containing unfavorable turns in the Arab Spring -- an Egyptian civil war, resurgent violence in Iraq, or an Iranian proxy war against the Gulf Arab states? Finally, what if the Arab Spring itself is only the vanguard of a more generalized global trend where other important governments prove more vulnerable than many expect to sudden social and political unrest?

Presumably extrapolating from the historical record, Freier implies that U.S. policymakers will not be able to resist eventual intervention in cases like these. And he believes that stabilizing these situations will require a lot of U.S. boots on the ground.

Facing off against Freier’s warning is a recent report from RAND that discusses how the Army might go about cutting its budget and how deep such cuts might get. In order to establish a medium-term floor for the Army’s expenditures, RAND examined the three previous postwar drawdowns since 1950. If these previous “peacetime” levels represent the lowest floors past policymakers have permitted, today’s Army could face up to a 50% cut in its funding. According to RAND, personnel funding could decline 42%; operations and maintenance 52%; and procurement 74%.

Here we have two lines of extrapolation colliding. Freier makes a defensible forecast of the demand for U.S. ground forces, based on the past behavior of U.S. policymakers. Similarly, RAND uses policymakers’ past postwar drawdown decisions to calculate a possible floor for the Army’s force structure. It foresees an Army suffering a decade-long procurement holiday and a force structure smaller than the 1990s.

Analysts like Freier and RAND are left to murky extrapolation because the chaotic policy environment in Washington has left them with nothing else to go on. Serial continuing resolutions, delayed budget sequesters, economic instability, and unresolved debates about America’s future role in the world mean that defense planners have little stable guidance on which to formulate plans. This state of affairs won’t be fixed until at least the next general election – and maybe not even then.