Afghanistan Plan Would Reduce NATO Combat Role by Thom Shanker, New York Times.

The senior American commander in Afghanistan said Tuesday that his plans for next year would emphasize deploying American and allied military trainers directly within Afghan security units, which could lessen the direct combat role of NATO and accelerate local forces’ taking the lead in a growing number of missions.

The commander, Gen. John R. Allen of the Marine Corps, said he also was striving to consolidate security gains against Taliban forces in their traditional strongholds in the south and to counter insurgents crossing from Pakistan into volatile eastern Afghanistan...

Development projects in Afghanistan have lacked a clear focus in terms of what development funding seeks to achieve.  While the three main priorities from the international community seem to vary between cementing relations with local elites, cutting and pasting a developed world health and agriculture infrastructure, and pursuing the ubiquitous goal of sustainable development, rarely is development looked at from the Taliban’s perspective. What development projects are most threatening in their eyes, and what are the red lines to them which show civilians are turning away from their values and towards the government’s sphere.  One of these red lines is education provided by the government, specifically girl’s education.  This paper looks at an education program that can effectively isolate the Taliban from their bases of support by using what the World Bank calls “one of the most effective social protection programs in the word”[1] – the Conditional Cash Transfer payment.

Education in Insurgency   

The battle for education has a long history in counterinsurgency warfare; during France’s colonial war in Algeria the FLN would target government run schools while also offering an alternative which sought to impart their vision upon the country.  The Taliban Madrassas along the Pakistani border have supplied recruits for the movement since its inception. They have also pursued a policy of attacking and burning schools and murdering government teachers. The Taliban’s repressive education policies represent the classic insurgent goal of discrediting the government, but they also signify something much deeper.  For example, the act of throwing sulfuric acid on a girl’s face, illustrates something fundamental in the ideology and nature of the Taliban: That girl’s education is an untenable act by an individual which must be responded to with force.

In short, education is a political act, a point that is doubly true for girl’s education. If girls attend school it shows a community’s independence from Taliban infiltration and also acts as a bellwether for a communities sense of security in that they feel confident enough to avoid possible Taliban retribution against their children. This offers a dilemma for the insurgent. Imagine you are a Taliban judge or leader of a vigilante militia. Your main job is not to merely enforce property rights or settle local disputes; it is to enforce the word of God and to discredit the local government. How can you continue to maintain respect and control if people ignore your authority on a signature issue while allowing an illegitimate government to corrupt people with western ideas? Intimidating individuals is easy. A night letter (threats from the Taliban sent to specific individuals) can force an individual to give up a government position or to drop out of school. However, intimidating a community if most of their daughters attend school becomes much more difficult, especially when trying to infiltrate a closely knit rural and isolated community.  

Targeted Development

The question then becomes, what is the best educational program to peel off support from the Taliban? In 2003 a simple idea was popularized in Brazil under the name Bolsa Familia.  For this program, women below a certain income level were paid money if their children receive vaccinations and attend school, while allowing 15% of the school year for absences.  As a result of this program, enrollment shot up and family spending on children increased, which created a virtuous cycle of improved health, education, and increased family consumption.[2]  The program is largely credited with lowering inequality in Brazil, which was once seen as one of the most unequal societies in the world.  The success of Bolsa Familia cemented the rise of the idea of the Conditional Cash Transfer payment (CCT), which simply means giving away money on the condition the recipient takes a particular action.  In Afghanistan, where wages are low, the conditional cash transfer offers a direct incentive for locals to do something the Taliban hates and provide the added benefit of boosting local consumption and family spending. As Dr. David Kilkullen points out, an insurgent network needs to stay connected to a population while having the people operate in certain ways. Otherwise, “they must either emerge into the open, where we can destroy them… or stay quiet, accept permanent marginalization from their former population base, and suffocate. This puts the insurgents on the horns of a lethal dilemma.”   When people talk about development and reconstruction as a ‘weapons system’ there can be no clearer example then a community marginalizing the insurgent by acting in ways the Taliban deem unacceptable.[3]

Also important and rarely addressed is when and where development programs like conditional cash transfers can and should be used.  The most fertile ground for CCT is where there is little to no insurgent activity or in communities that have recently switched sides or come under government control.  CCT provides an immediate positive benefit to members of the community - cash - and shows the Afghan government in a positive light. It can also be rolled out in stages to be more acceptable to local leaders. It can start with cash transfers to all children, which in practice would mean boys education, and eventually be scaled up to encourage girl’s education with an extra premium for female students.  CCT would not be feasible in contested areas, where insurgents have a wide base of support, or where people are not protected by the government or local self-defense forces. These areas present a massive logistical problem in delivering benefits. While Bolsa Familia is able to distribute funding through debit cards to families, Afghan participants outside of major cities would have to be paid in checks or, preferably, cash. Such payments would need to be hand-delivered by program employees, preferably in concert with local shuras, which in areas of insurgent control would be quite impossible. There are however, still opportunities in preparation for eventually establishing a CCT program, even in contested areas. Respected members of the community can be identified as potential teachers and be trained, so that an educational framework will be ready when community self-defense forces are organized or government or multinational forces regain control. This provides several benefits, adding a direct relationship with the community and discouraging the Taliban from taking direct action against local teachers, who have family and community ties, because tribal codes would then demand retribution.  

Schools don’t matter

Overseas development projects are infamous for measuring success by input metrics - how many schools are built, books delivered, project funding spent, etc.  This form of analyzing success has become notorious in the development community for creating white elephant projects, causing local corruption, and,  at worst, providing facilities which become a forward operating base for insurgents. The conditional cash transfer program for Bolasa Familia was particularly successful in large part because it was measured based on outputs - in that case the program could be judges as a success if more children were attending school and getting vaccinations.  In Afghanistan a similar output measure could be used, especially in major towns and cities where schools already operate with paid faculty. However the education problem for many developing countries goes beyond simple enrollment, as enrollment does not mean there are actual teachers who are teaching or for that matter have the ability to cheat. A better measure for rural areas (which make up most of the population of Afghanistan) would be to reward parents of girls who could simply write their names. By using a simple test like this the program would reward the most important output of education, in this case basic literacy. More expansive literacy tests could then be required to continue qualifying for more CCT payments. Schools aren’t a bad thing, of course, especially if a community expresses support. A school can also provide a local economic boost, further institutionalize education, and provide a physical structure that gives a sense of achievement to aid workers.  Student learning, however, must remain the ultimate sign of success and knowledge does not depend on schools. If you have qualified teachers, students can learn outside or in people’s private homes - something which occurred in many places during the Taliban regime, when girl’s education had to go underground.

A new model             

In conclusion, the Taliban and their associated groups have determined that neutral services run by the government or aid agencies are not, in fact, neutral. They are seen as directly or indirectly promoting an apostate government or corrupting people with foreign values, making those that actively support such services irreconcilable to their so called Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan. They have also determined that girl’s education is most offensive to the values of their movement.  Conditional cash transfers work in large part because they focus on human nature. Do X to get Y has proven to be a success across the world and across cultures, from Sao Paolo to New York, with more recent experiments in Cairo to Malawi. CCT has the potential to offer Afghanis the choice of benefiting their families and communities or offending reactionary insurgents. Assuming the international community and Afghan government have to ability to offer that choice, the history of success of the CCT program suggests that Afghans will choose to better their lives while rejecting extremism. And if they do, this implies not only a major defeat for the Taliban and their ability to govern, but also a potential shift against the social conditions that foster Islamist extremism.  

Mexican Cartel Strategic Note No. 10:

Fortified Town (Burgward) Strategy Implemented in Tamaulipas

Via “Mexico Inaugurates Military Barracks in Violence-Plagued Town.” Borderland Beat. Saturday 10 December 2011:

Mexican President Felipe Calderon formally inaugurated a military barracks in the violence-racked northeastern town of Ciudad Mier, where he reiterated that the deployment of army soldiers to battle drug-trafficking gangs is a necessary but temporary measure.

He said the new army base will allow time for authorities to recruit and form their own police forces in that town and other areas of Tamaulipas state, saying that the weakness, vulnerability and, in some cases, complicity, of law enforcement had put people “at the mercy of criminals.”

Calderon said Ciudad Mier, a colonial community in Tamaulipas state near the U.S.-Mexico border that was once known as the “Magic Town,” should be a tourist destination but instead was abandoned by its citizens last year because of the presence of criminal gangs.

In late 2010, nearly all of the town’s 6,300 inhabitants fled to neighboring municipalities and across the border into the United States due to fear of drug-related violence.

Many of them had relocated to a shelter in the nearby city of Ciudad Miguel Aleman.

Ciudad Mier, which is located in the “Frontera Chica” region of Tamaulipas, and many other towns in northeastern Mexico found themselves caught up in the war sparked by the March 2010 rupture of the alliance between the Gulf drug cartel and Los Zetas, the cartel’s former armed wing.

The shootouts between gunmen working for the rival cartels occurred for about six months and sometimes lasted as long as eight hours, leaving the streets covered with bullet casings.

In a bid to boost security, the Defense Secretariat ordered the construction of a “mobile” military barracks to house soldiers deployed to Ciudad Mier, a move Calderon said prompted the return of two thirds of the people who had fled the town.

“Ciudad Mier had started to become a community of empty squares, abandoned houses, of shuttered schools and businesses, of bullet-ridden walls. Faced with that situation, the government couldn’t remain with its arms crossed,” Calderon said.

The presence of the army soldiers, who arrived in the second half of 2011, “is gradually helping the people of Ciudad Mier and all of Tamaulipas regain the tranquility that had been snatched away from them by the criminals,” Calderon said.

He said homicides fell by more than 40 percent between the first and second halves of 2011, although he also acknowledged that “the road is long” and much work still remains.

The mobile military barracks, which the president formally inaugurated on Thursday, are capable of housing 600 troops.

The installations are the first of their type in the country, the Defense Secretariat said, noting that the materials used allow them to be taken down easily and moved to other areas as necessary.

The barracks, which occupy an area of 40 hectares (100 acres), respond to the need for mobile units capable of reacting to the contingencies that may arise in Tamaulipas state….

Source: EFE [1].

Analysis: This is a key new (and underappreciated) strategic component in the Mexican government’s response to the criminal insurgencies taking place in that country. The Mexican federal government is implementing a prototype program to reestablish its authority in the state of Tamaulipas, Mexico overrun by the cartels and gangs. Specifically, it is garrisoning an Army unit in a 100 acre modular base in close proximity to the abandoned town of Ciudad Mier. Ciudad Mier had been abandoned in late 2010, with most of its 6,300 residents becoming internally displaced persons (IDPs), due to the conflict raging between the Zetas and Gulf cartels. The establishment of the Army garrison (battalion size/600 soldiers) resulted in about two-thirds of the residents of Ciudad Mier returning back to the town.

The intent of the fortified town prototype in Ciudad Mier is to create an island of Federal authority and stability that can then be expanded to retake the surrounding lands that have been lost (what the Mexican government terms “areas of impunity”). This will be undertaken by the creation of new vetted (and uncorrupted) police forces that will then be established in nearby communities. It is assumed that the Ciudad Mier garrison will patrol the countryside in its area of responsibility (AOR) and function as a rapid deployment force that can then come to the aid of these new police forces when they are threatened by larger cartel commando units. No mention has been made of civilian defense forces (militias) being formed in support of the military garrison and police units— though such potentials exist and the creation of those units would have many benefits.

The fortified town strategy is being gradually expanded by the Calderon administration in selected regions of Mexico that have been lost to de facto cartel and gang political authority:

A second army base is being built in San Fernando, Tamaulipas, where 72 migrants, the majority of them from Central America, were massacred by Zetas in August 2010, and a third base is under construction in Ciudad Mante, another strife-torn part of the state [2].

The intent is to build supporting towns to Ciudad Mier that could be utilized to create their own zones of Federal control, mutually support each other, and, as a system of internal defenses, regain control of regions of Tamaulipas via their own battalion sized Army garrisons and subordinated police forces (See Fig. 1).

Of interest is how the fortified town strategy overlaps with Mexico’s growing internally displaced persons (IDPs) issue. This may become a primary Federal strategy to help mitigate it [3].  Also the establishment of such towns ties into very recent Feral cities analysis which discusses 4^th (Purple) and 5^th (Black) level cities (fully feral/dead cities and criminalized cities, respectively). This promotes the perspective that dead cities can be recolonized by the state and come back as 1^st (Green) or 2^nd (Yellow) level cites under its authority [4]. Finally, it is expected that the fortified town strategy will eventually be utilized in tandem by the Mexican federal government with some sort of retaking of the slums strategy in the major cities. Such a strategy was recently articulated by Vanda Felbab-Brown, though not specifically focused upon the criminal insurgencies taking place in Mexico [5].

Grand Strategic Analysis: In essence, fortified towns (garrison towns) are being established by means of recolonizing (and stabilizing existing populations) in a region of Mexico lost to the de facto rule of the criminal insurgents. This is pretty much an unheard of development with regard to mature, stable, and modern states. Rather, it is characteristic of centralized states expanding into frontier areas (those expanding territorially) and such states losing control over expanses of their lands (those being overrun by raiders and barbarians). This is very much reminiscent of Roman, and later Holy Roman, Empire frontier towns (burgwards et.al.) in Europe during the late imperial and post-Western empire eras. The raiders of those eras, however, were early on based on the Germanic tribes and Huns (Magyars) as opposed to today’s cartel (2^nd/3^rd phase) and gang (3GEN) groupings [6]. Modern parallels to US firebases in Vietnam may be made but the context and type of insurgency (criminal vs Maoist-inspired) make such contentions highly problematic. The historical parallels to the criminal-soldier threats of the late Roman Empire and Dark Ages appear even more viable in light of the multitude of atrocities committed (torture, mutilations, and beheadings), although in this instance with a post-modern contextual overlay.

Note(s):

Figure 1. Federal Mexican Burward Strategy is not to geographic scale. It is a notional figure of how this new strategy may be conceptualized. Military and police unit symbols will vary. While both Mexican Army and OPFOR units have motorized (& mechanized) capabilities the standard infantry symbol is being utilized for these groups.

1. “Mexico Inaugurates Military Barracks in Violence-Plagued Town.” Borderland Beat. Saturday 10 December 2011, http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2011/12/mexico-inaugurates-military-barracks-in.html?m=1. The military unit deployed is the 105th Infantry Battalion. The initial story can be traced back to a SEDENA (Mexican ministry of defense) press release. See Naxiely Lopez, “Mexico's president to visit Ciudad Mier today.” The Monitor. 8 December 2011, http://m.themonitor.com/news/today-57144-visit-mexico.html.

2. EFE, “Troops garrison Mexican border town battered by drug war.” Fox News Latino. 25 October 2011, http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2011/10/25/troops-garrison-mexican-border-town-battered-by-drug-war/.

3.  See Mexican Cartel Strategic Note No. 8: 230,000 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in Mexico and ‘Narco-Refugee’ Potentials for the United States, http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/mexican-cartel-strategic-note-no-8.

4. Robert J. Bunker and John P. Sullivan, “Integrating Feral Cities and Third Phase Cartels/Third Generation Gangs Research: The Rise of Criminal (Narco) City Networks and BlackFor.” Small Wars & Insurgencies. Special Issue. Volume 22, Issue 5, 2011: 764-786. See http://www.tandfonline.com/toc/fswi20/22/5.

5. Vanda Felbab-Brown, The Brookings Institution. Bringing the State to the Slum: Confronting Organized Crime and Urban Violence in Latin America. See http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2011/1205_latin_america_slums_felbabbrown.aspx.

6. Robert J. Bunker and John P. Sullivan, “Cartel evolution revisited.” Robert J. Bunker, ed., Narcos Over the Border. London: Routledge, 2011: 30-54.

US Naval Institute Daily - USNI

Real Clear World - RCP

Afghanistan

The Challenges of Occupying Kandahar - WSJ

Afghanistan on Track on Closing Private Security Companies - AP

NATO-Backed Afghan Militia Scheme Seen Expanded - Reuters

Giving Birth Is a Battle for Survival in Afghanistan - Reuters

ISAF Operations Summary - AFPS

Pakistan

US Lawmakers Freeze $700 Million to Pakistan as Distrust Grows - Reuters

Pakistani PM: NATO Blockade Likely to Last Weeks - VOA

Pakistan Ponders NATO Tax Scheme - BBC

Pakistan Denies Holding Talks with Taliban - VOA

Pakistan President Pushes Son to Fore - WP

PM: President May be Out for 2 Weeks - AP

Iraq

Obama, Maliki Hail ‘New Chapter’ For Iraq Without US Troops - VOA

Obama Meets Iraqi Leader to Chart Broad Shifts - NYT

Obama, Maliki Pledge Cooperation - WP

Obama Welcomes Era of 'Equal Partnership' with Iraq - LAT

Obama, al-Maliki Mark End of Iraq War - WT

Obama Backs Iraq Post-war Future - BBC

Obama: US Troops Leaving Iraq with Heads Held High - AP

Obama Says US Will Be Loyal Partner for Iraq - Reuters

NATO to Stop Training Iraq Army When US Troops Leave - Reuters

Premier’s Actions in Iraq Raise US Concerns - NYT

Ex-Iran Guard Commander Visits White House with Iraq Leader - WT

Iran's Bid for Power in Postwar Iraq - CSM

Obama’s Too-Rosy Vision of Postwar Iraq - WP editorial

After Iraq: What will History Say? - CSM opinion

Iran

Iran Claims to Pull Data from US Drone - WP

Iran Says it's Almost Done Decoding Downed US Drone - AP

Iran to 'Reverse Engineer' US Drone to Exploit Secrets - TT

Iran Says It Will Reverse-Engineer US Drone - AP

US Asks Iran to Give Back Drone - BBC

Obama Demands Iran Return Downed Drone - TT

Drone Wars: The Mullahs Strike Back - WT editorial

Syria

Syrians Vote as Fighting Spreads, Strikes Continue - VOA

Uprising Overshadows Syria Polls - BBC

As Syria Urges Local Voting, UN Puts Death Toll Past 5,000 - NYT

Syria Holds Local Elections as Deadly Clashes Continue - LAT

Strike in Syria Targets Economy, Assad's Backers - AP

Syria Votes Amid Violence, Activists Say Polls a Sham - Reuters

UN: Syrian Death Toll 'Exceeds 5,000' - BBC

UN Rights Chief Says 5,000 Dead in Syria - AP

Inside Syrian Regime, Hard-liners Gain Upper Hand - CSM

Middle East / North Africa

Hezbollah Claims to Release Names of CIA Officers in Lebanon - WP

Hezbollah Station Identifies 10 Supposed CIA Officers - NYT

Hezbollah Names 'CIA Spies' on TV - BBC

Senior Israeli: Arabs Not Ready for Democracy - AP

Israelis Try to Move Bedouin Camps - WP

Israel Orders Closure of Disputed Jerusalem Ramp - AP

Israeli Ultra-Orthodox Projected to Triple by 2059 - AP

Israeli Lawmaker Proposes Ban on Mosque Loudspeakers - LAT

Rocket Fired from Lebanon at Israel Falls Short - AP

UN Tries to Bolster Yemen Peace, Qaeda Inmates in Jail - Reuters

Al-Qaida Militants Escape in Yemen Prison Break - AP

King of Bahrain Defends Handling of Protests - TT

UK Urges Bahrain to Embrace Reform after Protests - AP

Saudi Woman Executed for Sorcery - BBC

Saudi Arabia Executes Woman for 'Sorcery' - TT

Press Group Urges Egypt Investigate Media Attacks - AP

Egypt Islamists Offer Vision for Sin-Free Tourism - AP

Libyan Leader Vows Army, Police Force in 100 Days - AP

Tunisian Activist Named President - BBC

Tunisia Assembly Elects Rights Activist President - AP

Tunisia Installs Former Dissident as President - Reuters

Fighting Flares in Tribal Dispute South of Tripoli - Reuters

Middle East States of Mind - LAT opinion

The Muslim Brotherhood Internationale - JP opinion

International Criminal Court

Gambian Will Lead Prosecution in Hague - NYT

US Department of Defense

A Soldier’s Death Brings Intense Emotion - WP

House, Senate Negotiators Strike Deal on Defense Bill - WT

Democratic Senator Finds House Defense Bill Riddled with Earmarks - AP

Pentagon’s Michele Flournoy to Step Down - WP

Pentagon's First Female Policy Chief Quitting - AP

Obama Plans to Cut National Guard Force Along the Border - S&S

CA Family Who Lost 4 Sues Over Military Jet Crash - AP

Ex-Naval Officer Gets Prison Time for 9-11 Fraud - AP

The President and the Generals - NYT opinion

Countering an EMP Attack - WT opinion

Pentagon's 3 Doomsday Scenarios - CSM opinion

United States

Lawmakers Seek to Ease Concerns on Detainees - WP

Supreme Court to Weigh In on Immigration Battle - LAT

High Court to Consider Arizona’s Appeal on Migrant Law - WT

Supreme Court to Rule on Immigration Law in Arizona - NYT

‘Occupy’ Protesters Block Some Gates at Western US Ports - AP

‘Occupy’ Rallies Disrupt US Ports - BBC

‘Occupy’ Ports Blockade: Protesters Eye West Coast Sites - Reuters

Ex-Blackwater Firm Gets a Name Change, Again - WP

Blackwater Gets an Even Bigger Makeover - CNN

Guantánamo Forever? - NYT opinion

Stealth Jihad in the Senate - WT opinion

Canada

Canada Pulls Out of Kyoto Accord - BBC

Canada Bans Burqa at Citizenship Swearing In - AP

Africa

East Congo Opposition to Protest Kabila Election - VOA

Kabila Defends DR Congo Election - BBC

Growing Criticism of Congo Vote - AP

Congo Church Official Questions Election Results - AP

Uganda, Rwanda Move to Mend Troubled Relations - VOA

Panetta: Djibouti Critical to US Terror Fight - AP

Is a US Military Precedent Being Set in Africa? - WP opinion

Americas

Mexican Troops Kill 11 Gunmen Near US Border - AP

Mexico Zeta Drug Gang Boss Caught - BBC

Mexico Navy Catches a Founder of Zetas Drug Cartel - AP

Mexico's Navy Captures Zetas Leader 'El Lucky' - Reuters

2 Students Die in Clash With Mexican Police - AP

Colombia Extradites Alleged Drug Kingpin to US - AP

Rights Group Slams Colombia Military Justice Plan - AP

Peru's Humala Swears in New Team - BBC

Chavez Launches Cash Giveaway for Poor Venezuela Kids - Reuters

Jailed Noriega Arrives in Panama - BBC

Manuel Noriega Arrives Back in Panama - TT

Cubans Honor Catholic Patron Ahead of Papal Visit - Reuters

Dreamers Bring Ideas, Projects to Post-Quake Haiti - AP

Oprah Winfrey Visits Haiti Under Tight Security - AP

Pope Announces Trip to Mexico, Cuba Next Spring - LAT

Asia Pacific

China Police Block Access to Protest Village - TT

S. Korea Accuses Chinese Boat Captain of Killing Coast Guard Officer - VOA

S. Korea to Get Tough on Illegal Chinese Fishermen - AP

Philippine Military Chief to Focus on Spratlys Row - AP

Philippines Top Judge Impeached - BBC

Philippine Supreme Court Chief Justice Impeached - AP

Burma Wants End to Border Clashes - BBC

Central Asia

Rights Group: Uzbekistan Denies Basic Legal Rights - AP

Europe

Cameron Addresses British Parliament Over Veto on Europe Treaty - NYT

UK PM Cameron Defends Europe Veto - BBC

UK OM Cameron: EU Veto ‘Right Thing to Do’ - WP

Britain's Cameron Defends Opt-Out from New EU Treaty - LAT

Coalition at Odds as Clegg Snubs Cameron's EU Treaty Statement - TT

Cameron Says EU Membership Is Vital to Britain - Reuters

Insight: The Day Europe Lost Patience With Britain - Reuters

France: Sarkozy Says Now Clearly Two Europes - BBC

France: Sarkozy Rival Denounces EU Treaty - WP

Chronic Pain for the Euro - NYT

Euro Zone Fiscal Pact Fails to Restore Confidence - Reuters

Russia Withstands Euro Zone Contagion but Risks Rising - Reuters

Russia's Prokhorov to Challenge Putin in Presidential Election - VOA

Billionaire to Oppose Putin in Russian Presidential Election - NYT

Russia: NJ Nets Owner to Run Against Putin - WP

Russian Tycoon Prokhorov Says He'll Take on Putin - LAT

Russia: Billionaire Prokhorov Announces Presidential Bid - TT

NJ Nets Owner Challenges Putin for Presidency - AP

Russia: Two Putin-Era Russians Seek Liberal Mantle - Reuters

Attendance Light at Rally for Russia’s Ruling Party - NYT

In Russia, Words then Deeds - WP

UK Bookseller Guilty of Terror Crime - BBC

Bullets Sent to Italy Justice Minister, Rome Mayor - Reuters

Center-Left Lupu to Run Again for Moldova President - Reuters

South Asia

India: New Delhi Marks 100th Anniversary - TT

Bold Attack on Kashmir Minister Leaves Guard Dead - AP

Call to Probe Missing Sri Lanka Men - BBC

Pentagon's First Female Policy Chief Quitting by Robert Burns, Associated Press.

Michele Flournoy, the most senior female Pentagon official in history, told The Associated Press on Monday she is stepping down as the chief policy adviser to Defense Secretary Leon Panetta.

In an interview in her Pentagon office, Flournoy said she feels compelled to "rebalance" her personal life after three years in one of the most demanding national security jobs in Washington…

Prevent, Shape, Win

by General Raymond T. Odierno

Chief of Staff of the Army

First, our Army must prevent conflict.  Prevention requires a credible force with sufficient capacity, readiness and modernization.  Our ability and will to win any fight cannot be open to challenge.  As part of a joint force, we must be clear that we can fight and win across the full spectrum of conflict.  That means realistic training, expert leaders, modern equipment, and quality Soldiers.  Prevention is achieved by convincing your potential opponents that armed conflict with your force would be extremely unwise.  Our land forces must continue to be a credible force around the globe.

Second, our Army must help shape the international environment so our friends are enabled and our enemies contained.  We do that by engaging with our partners, fostering mutual understanding through military-to-military contacts, and helping partners build the capacity to defend themselves.   This is an investment in the future, and an investment we cannot afford to forego.  It is cultivating friends before you need them, being a reliable, consistent, and respectful partner.

Finally, we must be ready to win decisively and dominantly.  If we do not, we pay the price in American lives.  When MacArthur said, “In war there is no substitute for victory,” he was making a plain statement of fact.  Nothing else can approach what is achieved by winning, and the consequences of losing at war are usually catastrophic.  With so much at stake, the American people will expect what they have always expected of us: to never lightly enter into such a terrible endeavor, but once there to win and win decisively.

US Naval Institute Daily - USNI

Real Clear World - RCP

Afghanistan

Karzai: Death Toll in Attacks on Afghan Shi'ites Rises to 80 - VOA

Afghan Leader Says Toll from Attacks on Shiites Now at 80 - AP

US Commander Defends Unpopular Night Raids - WP

US Commander Defends Night Raids in Afghanistan - AP

Karzai Says Foreigners Are Responsible for Corruption - NYT

Iran Complains to Afghanistan about US Drone - NYT

The Afghan Girl who Became Symbol of Kabul Attack - TT

Afghan Folk Tales Take New Role in Classroom - WP

Pakistan

US Military Vacates Pakistani Air Base - VOA

CIA Leaves Base in Pakistan Used for Drone Strikes - NYT

Pakistani Government Denies Talks with Taliban - Reuters

Pakistani Taliban Spokesman Denies Peace Talks - AP

Pakistan to Keep NATO Convoy Ban - BBC

Pakistan's Zardari to Rest in Dubai for 2 More Weeks - Reuters

Iraq

Iraqi Prime Minister to Meet US President at White House - VOA

Maliki Heads to US for ‘Post-War’ Consultations - WP

Iraq PM Maliki Visits Washington - BBC

Detainee in Iraq Poses a Dilemma as US Exit Nears - NYT

Once Bustling US Base in Basra Now a Ghost Town - S&S

US Victorious in Iraq Despite Obama - WT opinion

A New Mirage in the Iraqi Desert - WP opinion

After Iraq: What Will History Say? - CSM opinion

Iran

Iran Complains to Afghanistan About US Drone - NYT

Iran to US: We Won't Return the 'Beast' Drone - CSM

Iran Says It Will Not Return US Drone - AP

Obama’s Worrying Iran policy - WP opinion

Iran Won’t Give Up the Bomb - WP opinion

Syria

Defectors Fight Syrian Troops As Opposition Begins General Strike - VOA

'18 Killed' in Fresh Syria Unrest - BBC

23 Reported Killed in Syria Clashes - WP

General Strike Launched in Syria Amid Fierce Clashes - LAT

Major Battle in Syria; Shops Shut by Strike - Reuters

Syrian Troops Clash With Army Defectors - AP

France Suspects Syria in Lebanon Bombing - AP

France Points Finger at Syria for Lebanon Attack - Reuters

Israel: End of Assad Would Be 'Blessing' - AP

'Revolutionary Puppet Series' Takes Swipe at Assad - LAT

Egypt

Islamist Parties' Electoral Success has Copts Worried - LAT

Military Rulers to Decide Fate of Guantanamo Returnee - McClatchy

New Israeli Ambassador to Egypt Slated to Arrive - AP

Democracy in the Brotherhood’s Birthplace - NYT opinion

Obama Lags on Egypt - WP opinion

Middle East / North Africa

Islamists Gain Backers Seeking Help, Not Oppression - WT

Arab Uprisings Reshape Map of US Influence - AP

Hamas in Gaza Says It's Learning From Arab Spring - AP

Israel Blames Palestinians for Spurning Peace Talks - Reuters

Israel Acts to Curb Illegal Immigration from Africa - NYT

Israel OKs Funding to Block African Migrants - AP

Arab League Condemns Gingrich's Palestinian Remark - AP

Grasping at Peace, War Zone of a City Tests Yemen - NYT

Libyan Militia, Army Clash Near Tripoli's Airport - AP

US Department of Defense

Program to Battle IEDs Faces Cuts - WP

One-of-a-Kind Unit Trains for Hazardous Situations - S&S

A Pentagon the Country Can Afford - NYT editorial

An Injustice for Women in Uniform - NYT editorial

United States

Congress Edges Toward Deal to Avoid Shutdown - WP

Predator Drone Spy Planes Used in Civilian Arrests - S&S

Using Military Discipline to Help Veterans in Prison - NYT

Protecting Illegal Immigrants, State by State - LAT

Will Congress Ban Corruption in Its Midst? - NYT editorial

Are All Bloggers Journalists? - NYT opinion

Africa

Congo Election: Two Men Declare Themselves President - CSM

Observers Question Integrity of DRC Vote - VOA

DR Congo Poll 'Lacks Credibility' - BBC

Congo Opposition Unifies Behind No. 2 Finisher as ‘Winner’ - WT

Congo Opposition Plans Protest Over Election Results - Reuters

Ivory Coast Elects Parliament - VOA

Low Turnout for Ivory Coast Poll - BBC

Ivory Coast Legislative Polls See Thin Turnout - AP

Ivory Coast Vote Peaceful, Opposition Boycotts - Reuters

Election Day Is Calm in Ivory Coast - Bloomberg

Nigerian Bomb Blasts Kill One, Injure Nearly a Dozen - VOA

Multiple Blasts in Nigeria Kill 1, Wound 11 - AP

Twin Blasts Hit Kenyan Forces in North - AP

Americas

Mexico Says Police in Americas Sharing More Info - AP

Mexican Army Finds Tunnel in Northern Border City - AP

Peru's President Swears in New Cabinet Chief amid Mine Crisis - LAT

Peru's President in Major Shake-Up of Cabinet - AP

Peru's Humala Tightens Grip in Cabinet Overhaul - Reuters

Voters in Brazil Reject Para State's Partition - AP

Noriega Returns to Panama to Serve More Jail Time - VOA

Noriega Extradited Home to Panama after 21 Years - LAT

Jailed Noriega Arrives in Panama - BBC

Noriega Is Sent to Prison Back in Panama - NYT

Noriega Returns to Panama a Largely Irrelevant Man - AP

Panama's Noriega Returns: What Secrets Might He Spill? - CSM

Asia Pacific

UN Climate Talks’ Real-World Outcome will be Determined in Asia - WP

Christmas Display Near DMZ Sparks Fear of Reprisal from N. Korea - S&S

S. Korea: Chinese Sailors Stab Coast Guard Officers - AP

Japan Launches Spy Satellite - AP

China’s Spies Are Catching Up - NYT opinion

Europe

Chronic Pain for the Euro - NYT

EU Summit Outcome 'Bad for Britain' - BBC

UK PM Cameron’s EU Veto Splinters Coalition - WP

Clegg Attacks Cameron's EU Treaty Veto as Bad for Britain - TT

The Day Europe Lost Patience with Britain - Reuters

French Government Warns Opponents on EU Treaty Delay - Reuters

Medvedev Orders Probe Of Russian Election Fraud Allegations - VOA

Large Russian Protests Get a Response - WT

Medvedev Orders Probe on Alleged Russia Election Fraud - AP

Russia: Medvedev Election Post Draws Ire - BBC

Russians Scoff at Election Inquiry - WP

Medvedev Orders Russia Poll Inquiry, Gets Insults - Reuters

Boosted by Putin, Russia’s Middle Class Turns on Him - NYT

Russian Protests: Why I Took to Moscow's Streets - CSM

After Russian Protests, Putin Says He'll Listen - AP

Russian Orthodox Church: Influential Voice for Election Reform - NYT

France: Villepin to Stand for President - BBC

Ex-PM Villepin Seeks French Presidency, Harms Sarkozy - Reuters

German Police Arrest Suspect in Neo-Nazi Cell Probe - AP

Obama Must Back Ideals of Russia Protests, Not Putin - CSM editorial

Russia Elections: Public Anger at Putin, Can He Fix Corruption? - CSM opinion

South Asia

In India, Free Speech With Limits - NYT

By zacchaeus

We used to PT at 0530 in an urban area. We had 4 or 5 students get hit by cars on indiviual runs. When the senior Marine Officer was asked why he didn't make us wear reflective belts, he responded, "If they are not smart enough to avoid traffic; they are not smart enough to lead Marines."

That probably wouldn't go over too well today...

A Counterinsurgency Behind the Burka by David Zucchino, Los Angeles Times.

After a U.S. special operations force secured a compound outside Kandahar recently, Army 1st Lt. Ashley White was sent in to search and interview Afghan women. Just after she arrived, a homemade bomb exploded, killing her and two Army Rangers.

White, 24, was the first female soldier to die in combat while performing a unique new role for the Army. She was part of an elite cultural support team, first sent to Afghanistan in January in an attempt to overcome daunting cultural barriers in the deeply conservative Islamic country…

CNAS and Other Four-Letter Words by Carl Prine, Line of Departure.

I was sojourning into the heart of Iraq’s Sunni Arab rebellion last week, which forced me to miss the unveiling of the latest policy brief on Afghanistan by the DC-based Center for a New American Security think tank.

“The Next Fight:  Time for a Change of Mission in Afghanistan” is an odd document, and spare, coming in at a mere 5 ½ pages – seven, if you count footnotes.  It’s authored by the former commander of coalition forces there — retired U.S. Army LTG David W. Barno– as well as Andrew Exum and Matthew Irvine.

I say that it’s an odd document because it basically contradicts much of the advice LTG Barno gave Congress only about 15 weeks ago and overturns Exum’s own 2009 report with COIN guru and monied defense contractor David Kilcullen’s “Triage:  The Next 12 Months in Afghanistan.” …