10/11/2020 News & Commentary – National Security
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Six Arrested on Federal Charge of Conspiracy to Kidnap the Governor of Michigan
2. With U.S. troops gone, Taliban expands influence in one Afghan province
3. Counterinsurgency in the Philippines: An Inside Look at Partner Warfare
4. Suspected female Indonesian terrorist, 2 others nabbed in Sulu
5. Maria Ressa on the Battle for Truth, the Role of America's Social Media Platforms, and What Comes Next
6. Army eyes shorter deployments, reducing low-priority unit obligations
7. YF-12: The SR-71's missile-packing sibling
8. The Coming F-35 Fiasco
9. Task Force on Countering Disinformation
10. Russian Hybrid Warfare
11. How the FBI became a target of Russian disinformation
12. Opinion | The Biggest Risk to This Election Is Not Russia. It’s Us.
13. US-inspired rightwing extremism an 'insidious' threat to Australia, study finds
14. Block China’s seat on human rights council over Uighurs, urges Lisa Nandy
15. 45 ex-rebels in Leyte get livelihood kits
16. QAnon Is Thriving in Germany. The Extreme Right Is Delighted.
17. Opinion | Everything I Know About Elite America I Learned From ‘Fresh Prince’ and ‘West Wing’
18. Whitey Ford, Beloved Yankees Pitcher Who Confounded Batters, Dies at 91
1. Six Arrested on Federal Charge of Conspiracy to Kidnap the Governor of Michigan
justice.gov · October 8, 2020
Here is the press release for the indictment. At this link is the actual criminal complaint. I recommend reading it.
Since I am not a lawyer I do not understand the details but Michagan indicted 7 persons as well. But the 13 persons, despite coming from disparate backgrounds, with possibly different political ideologies, are all connected in this alleged plot against the Michigan governor. Certainly strange bedfellows.
2. With U.S. troops gone, Taliban expands influence in one Afghan province
The Washington Post · by Susannah George · October 10, 2020
3. Counterinsurgency in the Philippines: An Inside Look at Partner Warfare
mwi.usma.edu · by Shawna Sinnott · October 9, 2020
An excellent podcast my good friend Joe Felter. If you have 52 minutes it is worth a lesson.
4. Suspected female Indonesian terrorist, 2 others nabbed in Sulu
Suspected female Indonesian terrorist, 2 others nabbed in Sulu
5. Maria Ressa on the Battle for Truth, the Role of America's Social Media Platforms, and What Comes Next
gijn.org · by Gaelle Faure · September 29, 2019
Maria Ressa is one of the world's experts on social media, journalism, influence and politics. We can learn a lot from her. Her ominous words: "What’s happening in the Philippines, she said, “is coming soon to a democracy near you” - if it hasn’t already."
6. Army eyes shorter deployments, reducing low-priority unit obligations
Defense News · by Kyle Rempfer · October 10, 2020
7. YF-12: The SR-71's missile-packing sibling
sandboxx.us · by Alex Hollings · October 9, 2020
8. The Coming F-35 Fiasco
defenseone.com · by Bilal Y. Saab
9. Task Force on Countering Disinformation
10. Russian Hybrid Warfare
The 33 page PDF can be downloaded here.
11. How the FBI became a target of Russian disinformation
bostonherald.com · by Eli Lake · October 5, 2020
12. Opinion | The Biggest Risk to This Election Is Not Russia. It’s Us.
The New York Times · by Fiona Hill · October 7, 2020
13. US-inspired rightwing extremism an 'insidious' threat to Australia, study finds
The Guardian · by Daniel Hurst · October 9, 2020
Excerpts:
Waldek said some people were attracted to conspiracy theories – such as QAnon - “because they are crisis narratives and they provide structure and security in times of crisis”.
“In our report we talk about the creeping threat and how that is the aim of rightwing extremism. When you look at its end state, yes, there’s a violent aspect, but they’re also trying to make it acceptable for people to talk about Islamophobic things,” Waldek said.
The researchers said politicians should take the lead in raising awareness of the threat from rightwing extremism.
“We spend a lot of energy within a democratic system, as we should, with the two different teams arguing and competing against one another,” Droogan said.
US-inspired rightwing extremism an 'insidious' threat to Australia, study finds
14. Block China’s seat on human rights council over Uighurs, urges Lisa Nandy
The Guardian · by Michael Savage · October 10, 2020
My belief: China seeks to export its authoritarian political system around the world in order to dominate regions, co-opt or coerce international organizations, create economic conditions favorable to China alone, and displace democratic institutions.
15. 45 ex-rebels in Leyte get livelihood kits
pna.gov.ph · by Sarwell Meniano · October 9, 2020
This reinforces the podcast from the Modern War Institute with Joe Felter and Dennis Eclarin.
16. QAnon Is Thriving in Germany. The Extreme Right Is Delighted.
The New York Times · by Katrin Bennhold · October 11, 2020
Wow! I had no idea the Germans believed in this stuff as well.
17. Opinion | Everything I Know About Elite America I Learned From ‘Fresh Prince’ and ‘West Wing’
The New York Times · by Rob Henderson · October 10, 2020
Some interesting food for thought.
18. Whitey Ford, Beloved Yankees Pitcher Who Confounded Batters, Dies at 91
The New York Times · by Richard Goldstein · October 9, 2020
One of my childhood heroes. RIP Whitey Ford. Going to Yankee games was one of the highlights of my youth.
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"The disappearance of a sense of responsibility is the most far-reaching consequence of submission to authority."
- Stanley Milgram
"There are three kinds of patriots, two bad, one good. The bad ones are the uncritical lovers and the loveless critics. Good patriots carry on a lover's quarrel with their country."
- Wililam Sloane Coffin
"I have learned over the years that when one's mind is made up, this diminishes fear."
- Rosa Parks
10/11/2020 News & Commentary – Korea
News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Video of north Korea's parade
2. North Korea unlikely to fire new 'monster' ICBM before US election
3. Kim Jong Un Just Showed The World The War Machine He Built While Feinting Diplomacy
4. U.S. calls for negotiations with North Korea to achieve complete denuclearization
5. Tearful Kim Jong Un says North Korea will mobilize nuclear force if threatened
6. North Korea unveils 'monster' new intercontinental ballistic missile at parade
7. Kim Jong Un Marks 75 Years of North Korean Communism With Giant New Missile
8. China's Xi promises support for China-N.Korea relations in letter to Kim: KCNA
9. Analysis: North Korea's Kim speaks softly, shows off new military might
10. SKorea worries about missile shown in NKorea military parade
11. Documentary claims to expose North Korea trying to dodge sanctions
12. Commentary: Fake news coming out of North Korea can be fact checked but isn't
13. Biden will meet Kim Jong-un if necessary to denuclearize N. Korea: adviser
14. U.S. 'disappointed' to see N. Korea prioritize weapons: U.S. official
15. U.S. analyzing N. Korea's military parade in consultation with allies: defense dept.
16. Biden's election to mean stronger alliance with S. Korea: experts
17. North Korea Unveils Two New Strategic Missiles in October 10 Parade
18. Donald Trump 'is furious' after Kim Jong Un unveils massive ICBM
1. Video of north Korea's parade
For anyone who is interested in watching the north Korean parade in celebration of the 75th anniversary of the Korean Workers Party here is a link to the video. It is narrated un English by journalists from NK News. Note the photo below is of the new liquid fuel road mobile ICBM that can target the US - we just do not know if the north has miniaturized a nuclear warhead yet but it has missiles that can strike CONUS. I call it the Hwasong 15 on steroids but it will be interesting to see what the intelligence community names it. Of course first they need to assess if it is even real and not a mock-up. After all north Korea is masterful at denial and deception.
2. North Korea unlikely to fire new 'monster' ICBM before US election
Probably accurate. This parade laid the groundwork for future blackmail diplomacy and I think he will wait until after the election if he does a test shot at all.
3. Kim Jong Un Just Showed The World The War Machine He Built While Feinting Diplomacy
thedrive.com · by Tyler Rogoway · October 10, 2020
Some good photos of the new ICBM, the SLBM, as well as conventional systems and individual soldier equipment. And I concur that it was a very well-produced showcase.
I think the title is accurate. while the regime was feigning diplomacy it improved its military capabilities across the board. The regime is conducting political warfare with juche characteristics.
That said, I doubt these conventional weapons systems and advanced equipment are fielded throughout the nKPA. In fact we may be seeing all of its advanced capabilities in this show. I am sure the ground intelligence analysts are searching for all the supposedly new anti-aircraft and anti-tank systems as well as the armored vehicles. Satellite imagery for the coming days will be important to observe where all these systems go. Do they go to operational unit locations or do they go to warehouses for the next parade.
The north conducted its Byungjin policy for some 5 years (ending it in 2018 I believe). Roughly translated the Byungjin Policy was the simultaneous development of nuclear weapons and the economy. I wonder what the regime calls its policy of simultaneous development of nuclear weapons while conducting fake diplomacy?
4. U.S. calls for negotiations with North Korea to achieve complete denuclearization
uk.reuters.com · by Andrea Shalal
Of course the regime is masterful at getting something for nothing. What if this Hwasong 15 on steroids is just a mock up? (I am sure the intelligence analysts are pouring over the video and photos to determine its authenticity - as an aside with tomorrow being Columbus Day and this a three day weekend, I am reminded of this tweet I saw yesterday - "North Korea, ruining three-day weekends for intel analysts since 1950.")
But what if the north has built this to support negotiations? Without ever conducting a test shot what if the north is willing to give this up in return for sanctions relief? The regime will trade a system that it has never fielded (and perhaps never intended to field) for the concessions it wants. This would be the north's political warfare at its finest.
5. Tearful Kim Jong Un says North Korea will mobilize nuclear force if threatened
New York Post · by Dana Kennedy · October 10, 2020
More useful photos and my comments in the article.
6. North Korea unveils 'monster' new intercontinental ballistic missile at parade
Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin, Josh Smith · October 10, 2020
This says it all: “This missile is a monster,” said Melissa Hanham, deputy director of the Open Nuclear Network. But is it real or is it Memorex (for those old enough to remember those commercials)?
7. Kim Jong Un Marks 75 Years of North Korean Communism With Giant New Missile
WSJ · by Timothy W. Martin and Andrew Jeong
Don't be duped by Kim's tears. Crying on command is a north Korea trait. Of course for all other Korean people in the north crying on command for the dear, great, supreme leader Marshall Kim Jong-un and his father and grandfather is a survival mechanism: failure to cry on command and on camera may result in being sent to the gulag, or worse.
8. China's Xi promises support for China-N.Korea relations in letter to Kim: KCNA
en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · October 10, 2020
"Copy furnished" to all those pundits who think China will solve the nuclear problem in north Korea.
9. Analysis: North Korea's Kim speaks softly, shows off new military might
Reuters · by Josh Smith · October 11, 2020
Big missiles speak louder than words. And Kim showed us more than just big missiles.
10. SKorea worries about missile shown in NKorea military parade
AP · by Hyung-Jin Kim · October 11, 2020
As it should. Not because the monster missile is a threat to the ROK. It is a threat to the alliance. It is a threat to the Moon Administration's vision of peace at any cost. It is an indication of the true nature of the Kim family regime and that nature does not comport with the fundamental assumptions the Moon administration has made about it and upon which it has based its policy and strategy since Moon took office.
11. Documentary claims to expose North Korea trying to dodge sanctions
BBC · by News
Something a little different than our missile and parade focus.
Unfortunately, this streams only in the UK. I will try to figure out how to get access. (I set my VPN to the UK but for some reason the BBC still thinks I am not in the UK!!)
Excerpt:
The film is funny, grotesque and at times barely credible. "I am a film maker who craves sensation," Brügger admits in the film.
But Hugh Griffiths, who was co-ordinator of the UN Panel of Experts on North Korea between 2014 and 2019, called the revelations in the film ‘highly credible’.”
"This film is the most severe embarrassment to Chairman Kim Jong-un that we have ever seen," said Griffiths. "Just because it appears amateurish does not mean the intent to sell and gain foreign currency revenue is not there. Elements of the film really do correspond with what we already know."
12. Commentary: Fake news coming out of North Korea can be fact checked but isn't
channelnewsasia.com · by Martin Weiser
I don't know. I think it is kind of hard to fact check the teleport theory.
13. Biden will meet Kim Jong-un if necessary to denuclearize N. Korea: adviser
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 11, 2020
Hmmm..... Interesting timing on this report. I wonder if the advisor is speaking out of school. But whatever the future holds for nuclear negotiations we can credit President Trump's unconventional, experimental top-down, pen-pal diplomacy with breaking the taboo of meeting with a north Korean leader. It will provide future President's with flexibility. (notice what I did there - my comments imply that Kim Jong-un and north korea will continue to exist as we change administration in the future)
14. U.S. 'disappointed' to see N. Korea prioritize weapons: U.S. official
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 11, 2020
Disappointed, yes, but certainly not surprised. I think every Korea watcher expected and predicted seeing some kind of new "strategic weapon."
15. U.S. analyzing N. Korea's military parade in consultation with allies: defense dept.
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 10, 2020
As we should and must. And I can't help but repeat this tweet as I think about all the intelligence analysts hard at work in Korea, Hawaii, and DC. Tweet: "North Korea, ruining three-day weekends for intel analysts since 1950."
16. Biden's election to mean stronger alliance with S. Korea: experts
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 11, 2020
The Korean press is expressing its preference (Yonhap is a semi-official news outlet in Korea)
17. North Korea Unveils Two New Strategic Missiles in October 10 Parade
38 North · by Vann H. Vam Diepen and Michael Elleman · October 10, 2020
18. Donald Trump 'is furious' after Kim Jong Un unveils massive ICBM
Daily Mail · by Keith Griffith · October 11, 2020
Reportedly. By whom? (an unnamed source told Vox national security reporter Alex Ward.)
----------------------
"The disappearance of a sense of responsibility is the most far-reaching consequence of submission to authority."
- Stanley Milgram
"There are three kinds of patriots, two bad, one good. The bad ones are the uncritical lovers and the loveless critics. Good patriots carry on a lover's quarrel with their country."
- William Sloane Coffin
"I have learned over the years that when one's mind is made up, this diminishes fear."
- Rosa Parks
10/10/2020 News & Commentary - Korea
News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.
1. During military parade, N.K. leader vows to strengthen 'war deterrence'
2. New scaled-up ICBM spotted at military parade exercise in Pyongyang
3. Why a Naval Blockade of North Korea Would Utterly Fail
4. North Koreans attend concert for 75th anniversary of Worker's Party
5. October 10 was supposed to be a major celebration for Kim Jong Un. Instead he faces his most daunting challenges to date
6. N. Korea showcases new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) during military parade
7. Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un Delivers Speech at Military Parade
8. N. Korea waives quarantine procedures for Chinese diplomatic delegation
9. Pyongyang shows off BRAND NEW intercontinental ballistic missile during military parade, according to experts
10. Kim Jong Un says there are no COVID cases in North Korea, hopes Pyongyang Can "hold hands again" with Seoul
11. Video of Alleged Firework Display at 75th Anniversary Parade in North Korea Shared Online
12. North Korean crypto hacking: Separating fact from fiction
13. Stealth parade confounds North Korea watchers
14. North Korea Strengthens Propaganda Efforts Ahead of Key Party Anniversary
1. During military parade, N.K. leader vows to strengthen 'war deterrence'
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · October 10, 2020
We are watching the pre-recorded parade broadcast now live on YouTube thanks to NK News. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8dZl9f3faY
The parade is quite impressive. But I as I tweeted: For Kim Jong-un, just remember: (Murphy’s Laws) No combat ready unit has ever passed inspection (parade). No inspection (parade) ready unit has ever passed combat. Your military looks very pretty. Keep investing in your parades. Real militaries invest in readiness.
But we have to parse his speech. It was very emotional. Yes deterrence focused.
One of the key points the regime is trying to make is the difference between the 70th anniversary parade and this 75th anniversary parade and how the military appears to have advanced its military capability across the spectrum - not just nuclear and missile but many new types of conventional weapons right down to modernized individual weapons and equipment. Despite the economic hardship the regime has not let up on advancing its military capabilities. Lots of pretty soldiers and and equipment and very, very well choreographed. It is a most impressive parade.
It appears we have even seen SLBMs in the parade.
2. New scaled-up ICBM spotted at military parade exercise in Pyongyang
donga.com – 10 October 2020
From the commentary it appears there is a larger version of the Hwasong 15 - a road mobile liquid fueled ICBM. The TEL has 11 axles which appears to be bigger than any previous system. Too early to do more than speculate that this could be the new ICBM.
3. Why a Naval Blockade of North Korea Would Utterly Fail
The National Interest · by James Holmes · October 9, 2020
Of course, it would probably not take as long as maximum pressure! :-). Of course, it is too extreme. But we need to take actions against the north's illicit shipping upon which it depends.
I am glad to see the Australians and the Canadians contributing to disrupting ship-to-ship illicit transfers by north Korea.
Canada has been deployed HMCS Winnipeg and its embarked CH-148 Cyclone helicopter to Op NEON and Australia’s Air Force P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft has been deployed on Op ARGOS.
Note this press release from Canadian defense ministry: https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/2020/10/the-canadian-armed-forces-takes-part-in-united-nations-security-council-sanctions-monitoring-in-the-asia-pacific-region.html
But I will continue to argue we need a holistic strategic strangulation campaign. https://www.fpri.org/article/2016/03/a-strategic-strangulation-campaign-for-north-korea-is-the-international-community-ready-for-what-may-come-next/ built on a foundation of Maximum Pressure 2.0 https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2019/12/3/maximum-pressure-2/
4. North Koreans attend concert for 75th anniversary of Worker's Party
Daily Mail · by Chris Pleasance for MailOnline · October 9, 2020
But we watched the parade today, there was not a mask in sight. I didn't see one person with a mask on. And Kim Jong-un said in his speech that there has not been on single case of COVID 19 in north Korea.
But the real question should be as in the subtitle. Will the parade and ceremony be a super spreader event?
5. October 10 was supposed to be a major celebration for Kim Jong Un. Instead he faces his most daunting challenges to date
CNN · by Joshua Berlinger
It turned out to be a major celebration on a scale we have not seen in recent years. Unfortunately for the Korean people in the north the celebration will do nothing to solve their daunting challenges and relive their suffering.
6. N. Korea showcases new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) during military parade
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · October 10, 2020
Here is a photo of the "new" system. I look forward to the analysis from the missile experts.
7. Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un Delivers Speech at Military Parade
Here is the text of Kim Jong-un's speech published in English by KCNA. No mention of US. No COVID cases. "Apology" for the hardships.
8. N. Korea waives quarantine procedures for Chinese diplomatic delegation
dailynk.com – Jang Seul Gi - October 9, 2020
A positive sign for nK-RC relations.
As an aside I also noticed what appeared to be a caucasian looking man on the 2d balcony over Kim Jong-un's shoulder. There were supposedly no foreigners invited to the celebration. Someone responded that it could be a mixed blood Korea.
9. Pyongyang shows off BRAND NEW intercontinental ballistic missile during military parade, according to experts
rt.com – 10 October 2020
With photos.
10. Kim Jong Un says there are no COVID cases in North Korea, hopes Pyongyang Can "hold hands again" with Seoul
Newsweek · by Brendan Cole · October 10, 2020
I would not be taken in by this comment. I think he probably means he would like to hold the hands of South Koreans when they are handcuffed behind their backs.
I have to look at this speech through the lean of political warfare. No mention of the US which I think may be in deference to the US election.
But I do not look at this as any kind of significant outreach to the South expect perhaps to throw the South a bone so the Moon administration will keep trying to conduct engagement in the hopes that the north can coerce concessions on sanctions in the near future.
But overall, I think the north presented us with a very shrewd, sharp, well edited taped video of the celebration to support its political warfare and deterrence objectives that is designed to provide a foundation for continued blackmail diplomacy with the South and with the US after the election.
11. Video of Alleged Firework Display at 75th Anniversary Parade in North Korea Shared Online
sputniknews.com · by Henry Batyaev. Sputnik International
A video is at the link. Recall Kim Yo-jong asking for a video of US 4th of July celebrations. I do not think their fireworks outside ours.
12. North Korean crypto hacking: Separating fact from fiction
cointelegraph.com · by Alex Cohen · October 9, 2020
Just remember that while we were all watching the parade north Korean hackers were hard at work conducting cyber operations around the world.
13. Stealth parade confounds North Korea watchers
asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · October 10, 2020
Nothing stealthy about it. It was a midnight parade and then their edited video showed us everything they wanted us to see.
14. North Korea Strengthens Propaganda Efforts Ahead of Key Party Anniversary
thediplomat.com · by Tae-jun Kang · October 9, 2020
Before, during, and after. After the north's nuclear and missile programs the Propaganda and Agitation Department is probably the most important agency for the Kim family regime (except for the OGD but of course the OGD controls the PAD)
"Don't go around saying the world owes you a living. The world owes you nothing. It was here first."
- Mark Twain
"Politics is war without bloodshed, while war is politics with bloodshed."
- Mao Zedong
"I venture to say no war can be long carried on against the will of the people."
- Edmund Burke
The Navalny poisoning case through the hybrid warfare lens
Hybrid CoE Paper 4: The Navalny poisoning case through the hybrid warfare lens by Mark Galeotti, a subject matter expert on Russian politices, organized crime, and security affairs looks at the poisoning of Russian opposition leader and anti-corruption activist Alexei Navalny with a Novichok nerve agent through the prism of hybrid war.
Galeotti argues that the poisoning of Russian opposition leader and anti-corruption activist Alexei Navalny with a Novichok nerve agent demonstrates that the methods of 'hybrid war' are now integrated with Russian domestic politics. Mark Galeotti's numerous books include The Vory (Yale, 2018), Russian Political Warfare (Routledge, 2019) and We Need To Talk About Putin (Ebury, 2019).
Read the Summary or the Full Paper.
Source: Mark Galeotti, "The Navalny poisoning case through the hybrid warfare lens," Hybrid CoE Paper 4. Helsinki: The European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats. October 2020, https://www.hybridcoe.fi/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/202010_Hybrid-CoE-Paper4_Navalny-case-through-a-hybrid-lens.pdf.
10/9/2020 News & Commentary - National Security
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. Find out where Trump and Biden stand on defense and security issues
2. Unfavorable views of China reach historic highs in many countries
3. State official: U.S. ties with Japan, India and Australia should be model for region
4. To understand China's aggressive foreign policy, look at its domestic politics
5. Editorial: could the KMT be returning to form?
6. Here's what could happen if China invaded Taiwan
7. Rep. Bi-khim Hsiao: Taiwan's resilience shows the power of freedom and democracy
8. Explainer: how the next WTO chief will be chosen and the task ahead
9. American-made spy boat on secret mission washes up in Scotland
10. U.S. special operations forces are getting ready for war with Russia or China
11. Call it what it is: propaganda
12. How the Air Force could turn transports into heavy gunships
13. Trump suggests he may have contracted coronavirus from Gold Star families
14. The United States can only achieve AI dominance with its allies
15. Why we are suing President Trump
16. Green Beret's free-fall death spotlights concerns, sparks working group
17. Logic and grammar: Clausewitz and the language of war
1. Find out where Trump and Biden stand on defense and security issues
Defense News · Aaron Mehta & Joe Gould · October 8, 2020
My biased comment: Korea did not make the list.
2. Unfavorable views of China reach historic highs in many countries
Pew Research Center · Laura Silver, Kat Devlin, & Christine Huang · October 6, 2020
A lot of data.
3. State official: U.S. ties with Japan, India and Australia should be model for region
USNI News · John Grady · October 8, 2020
I hope so.
4. To understand China's aggressive foreign policy, look at its domestic politics
Council on Foreign Relations · Christopher W. Bishop · October 8, 2020
energy security + economic growth + domestic political stability = CCP remaining in power… and the COVID pandemic upsets this equation.
5. Editorial: could the KMT be returning to form?
Taipei Times · October 8, 2020
I would be interested in hearing from the Taiwan/China experts analyzing this op-ed.
6. Here's what could happen if China invaded Taiwan
Bloomberg · Samson Ellis · October 7, 2020
Some interesting graphics.
7. Rep. Bi-khim Hsiao: Taiwan's resilience shows the power of freedom and democracy
National Interest · Bi-khim Hsiao · October 8, 2020
We need to engage the community, coalition, or arsenal of democracy.
8. Explainer: How the next WTO chief will be chosen and the task ahead
Reuters · Emma Farge, Philip Blenkinsop, & Catherine Evans · October 8, 2020
9. American-made spy boat on secret mission washes up in Scotland
Popular Mechanics · Kyle Mizokami · October 8, 2020
Oops???
10. U.S. special operations forces are getting ready for war with Russia or China
National Interest · Peter Suciu · October 8, 2020
To beat a horse more dead, here are my thoughts, especially after the publication of the IW annex.
My main criticism of the IW annex is that it did not take the opportunity to revise the very poor definition of IW. The 2007 3000.7 was a compromise definition among the interagency and there was tremendous pushback on the concept from civilian agencies and, in particular, State. The definition is also simply another description of COIN, which is unfortunate. Congress provided a much more comprehensive and useful description of IW that is much more relevant for GPC.
The 2007 DODI 3000.7 definition: a "violent struggle among state and non-state actors for legitimacy and influence over the relevant populations." It said that IW consisted of UW, foreign internal defense (FID), CT, counterinsurgency, and stability operations (SO).
Congress wrote in the 2018 NDAA: irregular warfare is conducted "in support of predetermined United States policy and military objectives conducted by, with, and through regular forces, irregular forces, groups, and individuals participating in competition between state and non-state actors short of traditional armed conflict."
Here is how I would summarize IW in terms of Great Power Competition. I will be writing more about this as I think we need more of an emphasis on political warfare.
Problem:
We face threats from political warfare strategies supported by hybrid military approaches.
Solution:
Learn to lead with influence
Learn to counter and conduct political warfare campaigns
Competition equals Political Warfare most likely
State on state warfare less likely most dangerous
I am really going to focus on SOF and the IW annex. I am gratified to see that the Unconventional Warfare was, at least, mentioned in the annex.
Yet there seems to be a conspiracy against UW in DOD and even in the SOF community. The Joint Staff has decided not to update the Joint UW doctrine (JP 3-05.1), published for the first and only time in 2015 (and then the J7 made it FOUO, which is the best way to marginalize any doctrine).
These two strategic vision documents (below) from USASOC and 1st Special Forces Command do not mention UW at all (of course, the focus is on resistance, but resistance is a fundamental aspect of UW - in fact it is the foundation of UW). I will write more on this discussing the importance of the IW annex and the inflection point at which we have arrived.
Army Special Operations Strategy & 1st Special Forces Command - A Vision for 2021 and Beyond
Rather than ignoring or marginalizing UW, DOD and the Joint Staff should be directing an update of Joint UW doctrine in accordance with the IW annex.
My description of special operations includes the two SOF "trinities" and the no fail mission requirement with the foundation for the trinities being "UW thinking."
UW thinking informs everything SF/SOF should do.
UW is fundamentally problem solving; using unique, non-doctrinal, and non-conventional methods, techniques, people, equipment to solve (or assist in solving) complex political-military problems.
UW is fundamentally about influencing behavior of target audiences (which can include a population, a segment of the population, a political structure, or a military force); therefore, it includes an integral action arm of IO/PSYOP/CA.
The Two SOF "Trinities":
1. Irregular Warfare
2. Unconventional Warfare
3. Support to Political Warfare
The Comparative advantage of SOF:
1. Governance
2. Influence
3. Support to indigenous forces and populations
…with exquisite capabilities for the no fail CT and CP national missions.
11. Call it what it is: propaganda
Politico · John Maxwell Hamilton & Kevin R. Kosar · October 8, 2020
$300 million? Couldn't this money be better spent on ensuring election security? This is, of course, a comprehensive critique of the administration and its actions and intended action.
12. How the Air Force could turn transports into heavy gunships
National Interest · Caleb Larson · October 8, 2020
Imitation is the greatest form of flattery. Spooky, isn't it?
13. Trump suggests he may have contracted coronavirus from Gold Star families
Military Times · Leo Shane III · October 8, 2020
No words.
14. The United States can only achieve AI dominance with its allies
War On the Rocks · James Ryseff · October 9, 2020
Allies are important on so many levels.
15. Why we are suing President Trump
Just Security · Diane Marie Amann et al. · October 8, 2020
The ICC. This is quite an indictment.
16. Green Beret's free-fall death spotlights concerns, sparks working group
Army Times · Kyle Rempfer · October 9, 2020
17. Logic and grammar: Clausewitz and the language of war
Strategy Bridge · Christopher Saunders · October 9, 2020
"You didn't wait six months for a feasibility study to prove that an idea could work. You gambled that it might work. You didn't tie up the organization with red tape designed mostly to cover somebody's ass. You took the initiative and the responsibility. You went around end, you went over somebody's head if you had to. But you acted. That's what drove the regular military and the State Department chair-warmers crazy about the OSS.”
- William Casey on the OSS
“False words are not only evil themselves, but they infect the soul with evil.”
- Socrates
“Good people do not need laws to tell them to act responsibly, while bad people will find a way around the laws.”
- Plato
10/9/2020 News & Commentary - Korea
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. Kim Jong Un’s military parade seen as potential North Korean weapons showcase
2. North Korean businessman in Malaysia loses appeal against extradition to US
3. N.K. likely to unveil new ICBM during parade: sources
4. Senior N.K. officials visit mausoleum for late leaders ahead of party anniversary
5. Why President Moon keeps pushing for end-of-war declaration
6. North Korea claims new military milestone ahead of anniversary
7. US Forces Korea reports first local coronavirus transmissions in six months
8. Better protection for defectors: question raised over disclosure of envoy's defection
9. North Korea ‘to show strength and defiance’ with military parade
10. What we can expect to see at North Korea's 'biggest military parade'
11. Kim's get-well message to Trump a "good sign" for progress: Knapper
12. Unification minister orders probe into information leak on ex-N.K. diplomat's defection
13. N. Korea used word meaning 'defection' while handling drifting S. Korean official: JSC chairman
14. S. Korea initially saw slim chance of missing official crossing into N.K.: defense chief
15. JCS chief says conditions for OPCON transfer could be revised if transition delayed too much
16. North Korea's October 10 military parade: what 12 experts think we will see
17. Column: North Korea’s apology and South Korea’s vital leadership
18. Fears for senior diplomat’s family in North Korea after South Korean lawmakers reveal his defection
19. N. Koreans are forced to drink water containing ashes of dead inmates
20. 'Peace hospital' should be built in Korean DMZ, South's doctors say
1. Kim Jong Un’s military parade seen as potential North Korean weapons showcase
Wall Street Journal · Timothy Martin & Andrew Jeong · October 8, 2020
Soon we will know what Kim wants to show us.
2. North Korean Businessman in Malaysia Loses Appeal Against Extradition to US
Radio Free Asia · BenarNews · October 8, 2020
It will be interesting to see the trial of this north Korean businessman in the US.
3. N.K. likely to unveil new ICBM during parade: sources
Yonhap News Agency · graceoh@yna.co.kr · October 9, 2020
If we do not see a new ICBM, I wonder if the North Korea Propaganda and Agitation Department will chastise all the pundits who predicted we would see a new one. We should know in a few hours.
4. Senior N.K. officials visit mausoleum for late leaders ahead of party anniversary
Yonhap News Agency · October 9, 2020
Hmmm.... Here is the first interesting indicator. Kim Jong-Un did not make the visit.
5. Why President Moon keeps pushing for end-of-war declaration
Korea Times · Kang Seung-woo · October 9, 2020
Okay, so this is a message to a potential Biden administration. But this article, like all the rest, does not answer the questions of what substantive effects will be achieved by an end of war declarations, what behavior will be changed in North Korea, and how will this enhance the security of South Korea?
The vague "opening the door for peace" and " trust building" are based on the assumption that Kim Jong-Un wants peace and shares Moon Jae-In's vision for North Korean engagement. I think this is an erroneous assumption, because Kim has shown no signs of giving up his strategy to dominate the peninsula under Northern rule.
6. North Korea claims new military milestone ahead of anniversary
UPI · Elizabeth Shim · October 8, 2020
The Propaganda and Agitation Department is reading us. What is the new "military milestone?"
7. US Forces Korea reports first local coronavirus transmissions in six months
Stars & Stripes · Kim Gamel · October 8, 2020
8. Better protection for defectors: question raised over disclosure of envoy’s defection
Korea Times · Editorial · October 8, 2020
Again, it is the height of irresponsibility to make these kinds of disclosures. Escapees must be respected and protected. But, of course, politics drives everything.
9. North Korea ‘to show strength and defiance’ with military parade
Al Jazeera · Zaheena Rasheed · October 9, 2020
Defiance is probably one of the most important words to use in describing North Korea.
10. What we can expect to see at North Korea's 'biggest military parade'
BBC · Laura Bicker · October 9, 2020
11. Kim's get-well message to Trump a "good sign" for progress: Knapper
Yonhap News Agency · Byun Duk-kun · October 9, 2020
I think the title is a little misleading about Mr. Knapper's remarks. His "I suppose" seems to be an appropriate caveat to his statement - something like on the surface it seems like a good sign. But we need
12. Unification minister orders probe into information leak on ex-N.K. diplomat's defection
Yonhap News Agency · Yi Wonju · October 8, 2020
Necessary. But the MOU has not seemed to be supportive of escapees/defectors.
13. N. Korea used word meaning 'defection' while handling drifting S. Korean official: JSC chairman
Yonhap News Agency · scaaet@yna.co.kr · October 8, 2020
There should have been strong caveats in South Korea statements - such as "the North Korean military said that the civil servant intended to defect; however, we have no indication that was true." Also, this article shows the challenges of signal intelligence. And we should also consider that the North knows that the South and US collects signals intelligence, so it is possible they may be using deception techniques and sending messages they want us to hear.
14. S. Korea initially saw slim chance of missing official crossing into N.K.: defense chief
Yonhap News Agency · Oh Seok-min · October 8, 2020
More information is coming out about this tragic event.
15. JCS chief says conditions for OPCON transfer could be revised if transition delayed too much
Yonhap News Agency · Choi Soo-hyang · October 8, 2020
We should ask if the OPCON transition process is a political action or the natural evolution of the alliance that will enhance the security of the ROK and serve ROK and US national security interests? If it is about the security of the ROK, then all the conditions for transition must be met. You do to revise the conditions to meet a timeline unless you put politics ahead of national security. The Chairman is walking a tightrope between his professional military experience (and knowing what is right from a military and national security perspective) and the political desires of his President.
And, as I beat the dead horse, Seoul is not "retaking" OPCON from the US. The ROK/US Combined Forces Command is equally owned by both the ROK and US. When the change of command occurs and a ROK general officer is in command of the ROK/US CFC, he will still answer directly to the Military Committee, which consists of representatives of the national command and military authorities of both countries. He should also make the same statement that every US commander has made since 1978: as the
16. North Korea's October 10 military parade: what 12 experts think we will see
National Interest · Harry J. Kazianis · October 8, 2020
A handy scorecard for when we see the parade. Choose your "expert."
17. Column: North Korea’s apology and South Korea’s vital leadership
Chicago Tribune · Arthur I. Cyr · October 8, 2020
This article has the most positive spin that I have seen concerning the NK apology, Moon's leadership, and the ROK/US military relationship.
18. Fears for senior diplomat’s family in North Korea after South Korean lawmakers reveal his defection
Radio Free Asia · Eugene Whong · October 7, 2020
My comments below have apparently upset the national assemblyman, Ha Tae-keung. He wants RFA to retract this allegation. But we are reading multiple reports that he did, in fact, confirm the information about Jo's defection.
19. N. Koreans are forced to drink water containing ashes of dead inmates
Daily Mail · Michael Havis · October 8, 2020
Just so not one forgets the evil nature of the Kim family regime. Kim's human rights abuses are crimes against humanity, and we must expose and address them.
20. 'Peace hospital' should be built in Korean DMZ, South's doctors say
UPI · Elizabeth Shim · October 8, 2020
This is another symbolic gesture that would never come to fruition and effective use as long as the Kim family regime rules the North.
"You didn't wait six months for a feasibility study to prove that an idea could work. You gambled that it might work. You didn't tie up the organization with red tape designed mostly to cover somebody's ass. You took the initiative and the responsibility. You went around end, you went over somebody's head if you had to. But you acted. That's what drove the regular military and the State Department chair-warmers crazy about the OSS.”
- William Casey on the OSS
“False words are not only evil themselves, but they infect the soul with evil.”
- Socrates
“Good people do not need laws to tell them to act responsibly, while bad people will find a way around the laws.”
- Plato
10/08/2020 News & Commentary – Korea
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. US military hasn't used $60 million in South Korean defense funds, data show
2. Does South Korea still need US troops?
3. North Korean Defector Who Vanished in Rome Is Now in South Korea
4. The Iran-North Korea Axis Rides On
5. Moon hopes for S. Korea-U.S. collaboration on declaring end to Korean War
6. N. Korea's media-carried criticism against South jumped more than sixfold last year: data
7. North Korea may return to fire-and-fury mode in time to ruin 2021
8. Nigerian, South Korean make last round of WTO chief race - sources
9. [In-Depth] Denuclearization of North Korea driven to a dead end...Re-emergence of 'regime transformation' solution
10. Sanctions a powerful tool, but take time to have effect: U.S. security adviser
11. N.Korean Diplomat Failed to Gain Asylum in Europe
12. N. Korean military told to block "quarantine contaminants" at border
13. N. Korea increases number of checkpoints nationwide ahead of Party Foundation Day
14. North may unveil new ICBM: Unification Ministry
15. North Korea's Big October 10 Military Parade: Here Come the ICBMs?
16. North Korean Port Cities Hit Hard by Trade Sanctions, Coronavirus Closures
17. Korean War: The Forgotten Heroism of U.S. Army Infantry Soldiers at Chosin Reservoir
18. Taiwan inspects port, tells shippers to follow North Korea sanctions
19. How N.Korea Holds Diplomats' Children Hostage
1. US military hasn't used $60 million in South Korean defense funds, data show
This is explainable but unfortunately the complexity of contracting and facilities construction makes it very difficult to explain. But the key point is a ROK legislator is releasing this to put pressure on the US in the stalled SMA. We must keep in mind that any agreement between the US and the ROK must be approved by the ROK General Assembly.
2. Does South Korea still need US troops?
Asia Times · by Andrew Salmon · October 7, 2020
Like most of these kinds of analyses the wrong question is asked. The right question is does the US need troops in South Korea. And the answer is yes because they serve US national security interests.
3. North Korean Defector Who Vanished in Rome Is Now in South Korea
WSJ · by Andrew Jeong· October 7, 2020
The north of course knew about this escape more than a year ago. It does somewhat undermine the regime but its Propaganda and Agitation Department can and will spin this to make it appear to be South Korea's fault.
I am sure that South Korea tried to keep this information confidential so that it would not get in the way of its efforts to improve north-South relations. Surely north Korea will try to exploit this and use it against South Korea.
It was the height of irresponsibility for a South Korean lawmaker to release this information. He has put Jo and his wife in great danger. His daughter had already been returned to north Korea when Jo and his wife "vanished" and if she is still alive, I expect her to suffer even more.
I think all defections/escapes are personal and unique. It is hard to know if this will influence others but each person defects and escapes for various reasons (particularly high officials). Recall Hwang Jong-yop thought Kim Jong-il was going to either go to war or catastrophically damage north Korea and he defected to try to keep peace on the Korean peninsula. Thae Yong-ho defected because his son's did not want to return to Pyongyang and he could no longer explain the contradiction that is north Korea.
Most senior escapee/defectors are exposed. I think in this case Jo's situation was kept confidential because the Moon administration did not want to harm possible north-South engagement.
4. The Iran-North Korea Axis Rides On
dailysignal.com · by Peter Brookes · October 7, 2020
Again, read Dr. Bruce Bechtol's research on this. In fact I Iranian military analysts should be watching the north Korean military parade on October 10th because as Bruce always reminds, me if you see it in north Korea you will eventually see it in Iran.
5. Moon hopes for S. Korea-U.S. collaboration on declaring end to Korean War
en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · October 8, 2020
President Moon and his administration need to lay out exactly what effects they hope to achieve with an "end of war declaration." This is not some kind of "feel good" action. What do they expect north Korea do if there is an end of war declaration and how is the security of the ROK going to be enhanced by an end of war declaration with the world's 4th largest army that is offensively postured with 70% of its forces deployed along the DMZ to Pyongyang and possess nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons. And most important, how does this enhance the security of the ROK when the unchanged objective of the regime is to dominate the entire Korean peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
6. N. Korea's media-carried criticism against South jumped more than sixfold last year: data
en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · October 8, 2020
Why is this? It is an indication of the weakness of the regime.
As Dr. Jung Pak often asks, Who does Kim Jong-un fear more: the US or the Korean people living in the north?
The answer is he fears the Korean people living in the north. And he fears them even more when they are armed with information and in particular information about the South. That is because it is the example of the South's freedom, and advanced social, political, economic, and military development is a threat to the Kim family regime. Kim Jong-un fears his people and their desire to live the life of those in the South. This is why the Propaganda and Agitation Department has had to increase propaganda to try to counter this.
7. North Korea may return to fire-and-fury mode in time to ruin 2021
It is probably a good bet to put your money on a return to fire-and-fury. However, we should not be focused on the short term tactical. We need to focus on the regime long term political warfare and the key elements of its strategy and objectives and focus on these questions:
Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has or will ever abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?
In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula? Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?
The answers to these questions should guide us to the strategy to solve the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice) and lead to the only acceptable durable political arrangement: A secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government with respect for individual liberty, the rule of law, and human rights, determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK)
The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
8. Nigerian, South Korean make last round of WTO chief race - sources
Reuters · by Emma Farge · October 7, 2020
9. [In-Depth] Denuclearization of North Korea driven to a dead end...Re-emergence of 'regime transformation' solution
VOA-Korea· by Bae Sung-won · October 8, 2020
This is a google translation of an in-depth article in Korean by Voice of America. It quotes many Korea watchers (including yours truly) - in which I advocate for a United Republic of Korea). If VOA published an English version I will forward it.
10. Sanctions a powerful tool, but take time to have effect: U.S. security adviser
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 8, 2020
Sanctions are a critical part of a holistic strategy that must include strong diplomatic and military aspects, as well as cyber offense and defense, with an information and influence activities campaign tying everything together and focused on multiple target audiences.
11. N. Korean Diplomat Failed to Gain Asylum in Europe
It will be interesting to learn how he traveled around Europe and for how long before he went to a South Korean embassy. What kind of assistance did he and his wife receive?
And then there is the question of why did the ROK release this information now? Here is some speculation:
“There is some perplexity why Jo's arrival here was revealed only now. Some politicians speculate that this has to do with the appointment of NIS chief Park Jie-won in July this year. A former seasoned lawmaker, Park has been more willing to share information about North Korea with the National Assembly than his predecessor Suh Hoon. Some suspect he is trying to divert attention from the government's shameful behavior over the killing of a South Korean official by North Korean soldiers at sea.
There is also speculation that the government kept Jo's arrival here secret because it still had hopes of engaging with North Korea.”
12. N. Korean military told to block "quarantine contaminants" at border
dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · October 8, 2020
Draconian population and resources control measures. Yes this must help to prevent COVID infiltration. However, the 400+ markets are suffering tremendously and this is harming the people significantly. This reminds me of the old adage, "we had to burn the village to save it."
13. N. Korea increases number of checkpoints nationwide ahead of Party Foundation Day
dailynk.com· by Jeong Tae Jao · October 7, 2020
Yes, internal movement restrictions may contribute to the spread of COVID. They also contribute to security for the regime but they impact economic activity which again is what leads to the suffering of the Korean people. The most important safety valve for the survival of the Korean people is market activity and it is being significantly curtailed by regime policy actions. Despite the natural disasters and COVID the suffering of the people lies on the shoulders of Kim Jong-un and his deliberate policy decisions.
14. North may unveil new ICBM: Unification Ministry
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Shim Kyu-Seok
The MOU should stay in its lane. Military and intelligence analysis should be left to MND and the NIS. This is another reason why MOU should be absorbed by MOFA and become a planning directorate focused exclusively on planning for unification. Or if it remains a separate Ministry it should focus only on coordinating the plans of the ROK government for unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea. (UROK).
15. North Korea's Big October 10 Military Parade: Here Come the ICBMs?
The National Interest · by Robert E. Kelly · October 7, 2020
What are the Vegas oddsmakers saying?
A very good description of the regime: "The next big event of this kind is on October 10 - the seventy-fifth anniversary of the foundation of North Korea's ruling Workers Party. This is ironic. The party is not one of workers but of loyalist ideologues and bureaucrats with little exposure to the party's ostensible proletarian heritage. The party also does not rule; Kim and his extended clan do. North Korean governance is more like the mafia than a one-party state of Stalinist yore. North Korea is a monarchy undergirded by a family-cronyist network at the top, and the party exists to ensure compliance, indoctrinate, and mobilize. The party does engage not policy construction or even Lenin's 'democratic centralism.' All the Marxist party iconography you will see this week - hammers and sickles redolent of communist parties of the twentieth century - are just holdovers, totally irrelevant to the regime's actual ideology, which is a bizarre mix of hypernationalism and theocracy around the Kim family as semi-divine. But no matter. Ideological consistency ceased to matter decades ago when the Kim family personality cult displaced any rigorous ideational structure."
16. North Korean Port Cities Hit Hard by Trade Sanctions, Coronavirus Closures
rfa.org· Jieun Kim· October 7, 2020
The coronavirus mitigation measures by north Korea are affecting the economy more than sanctions.
17. Korean War: The Forgotten Heroism of U.S. Army Infantry Soldiers at Chosin Reservoir
The National Interest · by Warfare History Network · October 7, 2020
Note this conclusion: Not until recent years have Task Force Faith's men been appreciated. An examination of Chinese records revealed the men were greatly outnumbered, and it was realized that their duel with the Chinese kept considerable pressure off the Marines, enabling them to conduct an orderly retreat. In 1999, Secretary of the Navy Richard Danzig awarded the unit a Presidential Unit Citation. In 2000, veterans of the task force were invited by the Marine Corps to attend anniversary ceremonies for the Chosin campaign. Nevertheless, the U.S. Army has yet to recognize Task Force Faith for its hopeless battle with the enemy.
18. Taiwan inspects port, tells shippers to follow North Korea sanctions
in.reuters.com · by Ben Blanchard
Good. Do not be like the PRC.
19. How N.Korea Holds Diplomats' Children Hostage
This should be no surprise, but it is just another indicator of the evil nature of the Kim family regime.
-----------------
"If we should have to fight, we should be prepared to do so from the neck up instead of from the neck down."
- General Jimmy Doolittle.
"If you are not at the table, you are on the menu,"
- US Senator Michael Enzi.
"Sometimes the things that may or may not be true are the things that a man needs to believe in the most. That people are basically good. That honor, courage and virtues mean everything. That power and money, money and power mean nothing; that Good always triumphs over Evil; and I want you to remember this: That Love, true Love never dies. Doesn't matter if any of this is true or not. You see a man should believe in these things because these are the things worth believing in."
- Robert Duvall in "Second Hand Lions"
10/08/2020 News & Commentary – National Security
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. How Russia Today Skirts High-Tech Blockade to Reach U.S. Readers
2. China, Iran, Russia, N. Korea, 22 others accuse US of ‘systematic racial discrimination’ at UN
3. China’s Disinformation Campaign in the Philippines
4. $141 million construction project planned at Army base in Germany
5. China is telling its military propagandists to steer clear of stories about the US election
6. The U.S. Military is Preparing for an "Irregular" War
7. McMaster and commander in chief
8. All US Troops In Afghanistan To Withdraw By Christmas, Trump Tweets
9. Small rotations to far-flung Southeast Asian countries are likely the future of INDOPACOM assignments
10. Army proceeding with $1.7 million range project in Stuttgart despite troop drawdown plan
11. Esper plans more official travel as calls grow for him to stay put
12. Meet the Army's 'Night Stalkers,' the special-operations pilots who can fly anything anywhere in the world
13. Perspective | We’re suing the Pentagon to find out where U.S. troops are deployed
14. Why Conspiracy Theories Are So Addictive Right Now
15. QAnon High Priest Was Just Trolling Away as a Citigroup Tech Executive
16. China Uses the U.N. to Expand Its Surveillance Reach
17. The False Promise of Regime Change - Why Washington Keeps Failing in the Middle East
18. Why the Pentagon Should Focus on Taiwan
1. How Russia Today Skirts High-Tech Blockade to Reach U.S. Readers
WSJ · by Keach Hagey, Emily Glazer and Rob Barry· October 7, 2020
This is quite an indictment.
“The company responsible for RT’s presence on RealClearPolitics is Mixi.Media. Since its launch in 2018, Mixi has assembled a network of right-leaning publishers, including National Review, The Daily Caller and Newsmax, as well as mainstream sites like RealClearPolitics. Also in Mixi’s fold are RT and another Russian state-backed outlet, Sputnik.”
2. China, Iran, Russia, N. Korea, 22 others accuse US of ‘systematic racial discrimination’ at UN
3. China’s Disinformation Campaign in the Philippines
thediplomat.com · by Gregory Winger · October 6, 2020
Unrestricted Warfare. Three Warfares: psychological warfare, legal warfare or lawfare, and media or public opinion warfare. In short, this is political warfare warfare.
Operation Naval Gazing. What a code name!
A somber conclusion we should reflect on: "At its heart, Operation Naval Gazing is a warning siren as to whether Tokyo, Seoul, Canberra, Manila and especially Washington are willing to take proactive measures to defend their information environments. If not, they will again risk being caught flatfooted as a foreign actor learns to use social media to undermine their collective security."
4. $141 million construction project planned at Army base in Germany
I have fond memories of Graf in the early 1980s. I wonder when the White House reads this if it will be subject to change.
5. China is telling its military propagandists to steer clear of stories about the US election
Business Insider · by William Zheng
Hmmm...
6. The U.S. Military is Preparing for an "Irregular" War
The National Interest · by Kris Osborn · October 7, 2020
We should think about how to describe Irregular Warfare. I think Congress has done a better job than DOD:
“The 2007 DODI 3000.7 definition: a “violent struggle among state and non-state actors for legitimacy and influence over the relevant populations.” It said that IW consisted of UW, foreign internal defense (FID), CT, counterinsurgency, and stability operations (SO).
Congress wrote in the 2018 NDAA: Irregular Warfare is conducted “in support of predetermined United States policy and military objectives conducted by, with, and through regular forces, irregular forces, groups, and individuals participating in competition between state and non-state actors short of traditional armed conflict.”
Problem:
We face threats from political warfare strategies supported by hybrid military approaches.
Solution:
Learn to lead with influence
Learn to counter and conduct political warfare campaigns
Competition equals Political Warfare - Most likely
State on state warfare less likely - Most dangerous
7. McMaster and commander in chief
fdd.org · by Clifford D. May · October 7, 2020
8. All US Troops In Afghanistan To Withdraw By Christmas, Trump Tweets
defenseone.com · by Katie Bo Williams
Are tweets official orders? Strategic guidance?
9. Small rotations to far-flung Southeast Asian countries are likely the future of INDOPACOM assignments
militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · October 7, 2020
Don't give up the high ground. You can do both. But before we give up the hubs of Japan and (potentially) Korea we should make sure these small rotations actually support the strategy and are feasible and sustainable.
10. Army proceeding with $1.7 million range project in Stuttgart despite troop drawdown plan
Stars and Stripes · by John Vandiver · October 7, 2020
We should keep in mind most military construction is on a five year plan. And then there are contractual obligations with construction companies and of course congressional oversight. You can change the direction of military construction on a whim or a dime.
11. Esper plans more official travel as calls grow for him to stay put
Politico · October 7, 2020
I do not think our senior leaders should adopt a bumper mentality and hunker down. And in the era of modern communications the SECDEF is always connected and is as virtually close to the White House as he is if he is in the Pentagon.
I would also ask is he planning more travel or is he executing travel already planned?
12. Meet the Army's 'Night Stalkers,' the special-operations pilots who can fly anything anywhere in the world
Business Insider · by Stavros Atlamazoglou
13. Perspective | We’re suing the Pentagon to find out where U.S. troops are deployed
The Washington Post· by Kate Brannen and Ryan Goodman · October 7, 2020
We used to have a lot of detail on deployments around the world. But there needs to be a balance among OPSEC, informing the public and its right to know, and politics.
14. Why Conspiracy Theories Are So Addictive Right Now
The New York Times · by Kevin Roose · October 7, 2020
It continues to amaze me how many people believe in conspiracy theories.
15. QAnon High Priest Was Just Trolling Away as a Citigroup Tech Executive
Bloomberg · by William Turton · October 7, 2020
Now this is an amazing story. What radicalized this guy?
16. China Uses the U.N. to Expand Its Surveillance Reach
WSJ · by Claudia Rosett· October 7, 2020
17. The False Promise of Regime Change - Why Washington Keeps Failing in the Middle East
Foreign Affairs · by Philip H. Gordon · October 7, 2020
Conclusion:
“In the future, there may be cases in which mass terrorism, genocide, a direct attack on the United States, or a country using or proliferating nuclear weapons makes the benefits of removing a threatening regime exceed the costs. But if history is any guide, such cases will be rare to nonexistent. And even where they exist, they demand caution, humility, and honesty about the likely costs and consequences.
Regime change will always tempt Washington. So long as there are states that threaten American interests and mistreat their people, U.S. leaders and pundits will periodically be pulled toward the idea that Americans can use their unparalleled military, diplomatic, and economic power to get rid of bad regimes and replace them with better ones. The long, diverse, and tragic history of U.S.-backed regime change in the Middle East, however, suggests that such temptations—like most quick fixes that come along in life and politics—should be resisted. The next time U.S. leaders propose intervening in the region to overthrow a hostile regime, it can safely be assumed that such an enterprise will be less successful, more costly, and more replete with unintended consequences than proponents realize or admit. So far, at least, it has never been the other way around.”
18. Why the Pentagon Should Focus on Taiwan
warontherocks.com · by Elbridge Colby · October 7, 2020
Conclusion: The Defense Department is rightly focused on China in Asia and on restoring the American military’s edge vis-à-vis Beijing. The best way the Pentagon can serve these goals is to prioritize defending Taiwan over all other contingencies in its planning. Doing so will be challenging and likely involve significant change, but it can — and should — be done to deter and, if necessary, prevail in a war with the most challenging rival the United States has faced in a generation.
-----------------
If we should have to fight, we should be prepared to do so from the neck up instead of from the neck down.”
- General Jimmy Doolittle.
“If you are not at the table, you are on the menu,”
- US Senator Michael Enzi.
"Sometimes the things that may or may not be true are the things that a man needs to believe in the most. That people are basically good. That honor, courage and virtues mean everything. That power and money, money and power mean nothing; that Good always triumphs over Evil; and I want you to remember this: That Love, true Love never dies. Doesn't matter if any of this is true or not. You see a man should believe in these things because these are the things worth believing in."
- Robert Duvall in "Second Hand Lions"
10/07/2020 News & Commentary – National Security
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Russia trying to stoke societal tensions and white supremacy is the most lethal threat to the United States, new DHS report says
2. Exclusive: German official quashed intelligence report on China's influence
3. A Quad of consequence: Balancing values and strategy
4. In Tokyo, Pompeo Touts Quad Forum as Way to Counter China
5. Years after they fought in Afghanistan, US troops watch as their children deploy to the same war
6. A U.S. soldier is returning from abroad. CBP may not allow him back.
7. H.R. McMaster's 'Neither Trump' Manifesto
8. Facebook bans QAnon across its platforms
9. U.S. says Taiwan military budget boost insufficient for 'resilient defense'
10. Nearly 40 nations criticize China's human rights policies
11. U.S. Raises China Concerns Over Israel's Sale of Largest Seaport
12. Japan Unveils Record $52 Billion Military Budget (Thanks to China and North Korea)
13. Joint Doctrine for Unconventional Warfare 2.0
14. Quad gains traction as unified anti-China front
15. To stop a Chinese invasion, Taiwan has to first fight the stigma of military service
16. The four presidential prospects need to unite against China
17. Cambodia confirms US-funded defence facility has been razed
18. The Future of Chinese Power
19. Why Taiwan is the canary in the coal mine of US-China confrontation
1. Russia trying to stoke societal tensions and white supremacy is the most lethal threat to the United States, new DHS report says
The Washington Post · by Ellen Nakashima and Shane Harris · October 6, 2020
Here is the link to the DHS report.
We should take this serious and remember our responsibility to defend ourselves. Our NSS lays out our responsibilities as critical thinking citizens.
"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
2. Exclusive: German official quashed intelligence report on China's influence
Axios · by Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian
Chinese malign influence is a global threat.
3. A Quad of consequence: Balancing values and strategy
lowyinstitute.org · by Titli Basu
Good assessment of the Quad:
“Power asymmetry with neighbours and Beijing's hegemonic aspirations fuels its vision of a Chinese century, as opposed to an Asian century. Beijing's aggressive strategic posturing during a pandemic illustrates the Chinese Communist Party's relentless push to advance a Sino-centric order. It has further sharpened the clash over political values, rules, norms and principles.
While there is no appetite in India for entering any formal alliance system, there is certainly deeper strategic coordination.
Beijing sees the Quad through the lens of a military alliance, as the core of an Indo-Pacific strategy directed towards containing China. The Quad is seen as Tokyo's project to marginalise and offset Beijing's regional primacy. The Quad certainly touches a nerve in Beijing.”
Conclusion: "Abe Shinzo has left office but his strategic vision of Asia's Democratic Security Diamond forms one of the key pillars for stability in the post-Covid order. As the Quad gathers in Tokyo, the participants should agree on a joint statement that both manages expectations yet imparts a clear strategic vision and an action plan on key issues that will shape the future of the liberal order. As Quad gains strategic heft, a positive and productive memo will be crucial in garnering regional support."
4. In Tokyo, Pompeo Touts Quad Forum as Way to Counter China
voanews.com · by William Gallo· October 6, 2020
This is the challenge. Some members feel forced to make a choice but instead need and want to walk the tightrope between China and the US:
“The complex web of competing economic interests and rivalries in Asia has made it difficult for even some formal U.S. allies to choose between the U.S. and China. Many say the choice does not need to be made at all.”
“Asked earlier this month about the hypothetical idea of joining an expanded Quad, South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha reacted negatively, ‘We don't think anything that automatically shuts out, and is exclusive of, the interests of others is a good idea,’ she said, according to the Yonhap news agency. ‘If that's a structured alliance, we will certainly think very hard whether it serves our security interests.’"
5. Years after they fought in Afghanistan, US troops watch as their children deploy to the same war
Stars and Stripes · by JP Lawrence and Philip Walter Wellman · October 6, 2020
Something we should all reflect on.
6. A U.S. soldier is returning from abroad. CBP may not allow him back.
The Washington Post · October 6, 2020
Truth is stranger than fiction. Some of these cases are hard to fathom.
7. H.R. McMaster's 'Neither Trump' Manifesto
Bloomberg · by Eli Lake · October 6, 2020
The pundits wished for a tell all. Instead, they found an intellectual treatment of US national security.
8. Facebook bans QAnon across its platforms
NBC News · October 6, 2020
Yes, I support free speech without question (every aspect from flag burning to conspiracy theories and everything in between except yelling fire in a theater). I do not think a democratic government should ever restrict it. However, non-government organizations (e.g., businesses) can police their platforms. I wish no one had to restrict this and I wish all people could think critically and not fall for this kind of conspiracy theory crap. But I wonder what effect this will have.
9. U.S. says Taiwan military budget boost insufficient for 'resilient defense'
Reuters · by David Brunnstrom · October 6, 2020
I fear Taiwan's defense budget could never be big enough. A very interesting statement from Dave Helvey:
"While the PLA's actions are real and dangerous, the PLA is not unbeatable," he said. "Taiwan can, through smart investments, send a clear signal to Beijing that Taiwan's society and its armed forces are absolutely committed to the defense of Taiwan."
Referring to the proposed defense budget, he added:
"These increases, while a step in the right direction, however, are insufficient to ensure that Taiwan can leverage its geography, advanced technology, workforce and patriotic population to channel Taiwan's inherent advantages necessary for a resilient defense."
10. Nearly 40 nations criticize China's human rights policies
Los Angeles Times · by Associated Press · October 7, 2020
Good. But 40 is not enough by a long shot.
11. U.S. Raises China Concerns Over Israel's Sale of Largest Seaport
Bloomberg · by Ivan Levingston · October 6, 2020
I understand this will provide an excellent location for Chinese ISR activities.
12. Japan Unveils Record $52 Billion Military Budget (Thanks to China and North Korea)
The National Interest · by Peter Suciu · October 6, 2020
But will it change its constitution to be able to effectively employ its military capabilities?
13. Joint Doctrine for Unconventional Warfare 2.0
linkedin.com · by Robert Burrell
A short but important essay from the author of the USSOCOM Joint UW doctrine in 2015. As soon as the Joint UW pub was published the Joint Staff made it FOUO. As a mentor of mine said if you want to make doctrine irrelevant you make it FOUO.
Now we have the unclassified IW annex which does describe UW as fundamental to IW.
Yet there seems to be a conspiracy against UW in DOD and even in the SOF community.
These two strategic vision documents from USASOC and 1st Special Forces Command do not mention UW at all (of course the focus is on resistance but resistance is a fundamental aspect of UW - in fact it is the foundation of UW) . I will write more on this in a formal OpEd discussing the importance of the IW annex and the inflection point at which we have arrived:
Army Special Operations Strategy
1st Special Forces Command: A Vision for 2021 and Beyond
Rather than ignoring or marginalizing UW DOD and the Joint Staff should be directing an update of Joint UW doctrine in accordance with the IW annex.
Joint Doctrine for Unconventional Warfare 2.0
14. Quad gains traction as unified anti-China front
asiatimes.com · by Richard Javad Heydarian · October 6, 2020
Overly optimistic assessment?
15. To stop a Chinese invasion, Taiwan has to first fight the stigma of military service
Los Angeles Times · by David Pierson · October 6, 2020
Everyone on Taiwan will have to be in this fight. Resistance among the people will be critical and if developed now and capabilities demonstrated it can become unconventional deterrence to support overall deterrence of the PRC.
16. The four presidential prospects need to unite against China
The Hill · by Joseph Bosco · October 6, 2020
17. Cambodia confirms US-funded defence facility has been razed
thejakartapost.com · by The Jakarta Post· October 04, 2020
Chinese political and economic warfare is being practiced in Cambodia.
18. The Future of Chinese Power
defenseone.com · by Michael Schuman
19. Why Taiwan is the canary in the coal mine of US-China confrontation
SCMP · by Antonio C. Hsiang · October 07, 2020
This quote is going in my quote book:
"If you are not at the table, you are on the menu," US Senator Michael Enzi once said.
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"It was indicative of the U.S. Army's basic misunderstanding of what Special Forces really are, that the official lineage of Special Forces is traced back to the 1st Special Service Force. The OSS was a much more legitimate ancestor of today's Green Berets, but the problem with the U.S. Army recognition of that fact is a syndrome that has wider implications. OSS was a hybrid with strong political and intelligence flavors.
- LTG (USA-RET) William P. Yarborough
Southern Pines, NC
December 1982
"An opinion can be argued with; a conviction best shot."
- T.E. Lawrence
"There is an immutable law of the SOF bureaucracy which states that an operation becomes more feasible the farther aware one is from the physical risks involved in that operation."
- CPT William H. Burgess III, April 1986