News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.
1. During military parade, N.K. leader vows to strengthen 'war deterrence'
2. New scaled-up ICBM spotted at military parade exercise in Pyongyang
3. Why a Naval Blockade of North Korea Would Utterly Fail
4. North Koreans attend concert for 75th anniversary of Worker's Party
5. October 10 was supposed to be a major celebration for Kim Jong Un. Instead he faces his most daunting challenges to date
6. N. Korea showcases new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) during military parade
7. Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un Delivers Speech at Military Parade
8. N. Korea waives quarantine procedures for Chinese diplomatic delegation
9. Pyongyang shows off BRAND NEW intercontinental ballistic missile during military parade, according to experts
10. Kim Jong Un says there are no COVID cases in North Korea, hopes Pyongyang Can "hold hands again" with Seoul
11. Video of Alleged Firework Display at 75th Anniversary Parade in North Korea Shared Online
12. North Korean crypto hacking: Separating fact from fiction
13. Stealth parade confounds North Korea watchers
14. North Korea Strengthens Propaganda Efforts Ahead of Key Party Anniversary
1. During military parade, N.K. leader vows to strengthen 'war deterrence'
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · October 10, 2020
We are watching the pre-recorded parade broadcast now live on YouTube thanks to NK News. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8dZl9f3faY
The parade is quite impressive. But I as I tweeted: For Kim Jong-un, just remember: (Murphy’s Laws) No combat ready unit has ever passed inspection (parade). No inspection (parade) ready unit has ever passed combat. Your military looks very pretty. Keep investing in your parades. Real militaries invest in readiness.
But we have to parse his speech. It was very emotional. Yes deterrence focused.
One of the key points the regime is trying to make is the difference between the 70th anniversary parade and this 75th anniversary parade and how the military appears to have advanced its military capability across the spectrum - not just nuclear and missile but many new types of conventional weapons right down to modernized individual weapons and equipment. Despite the economic hardship the regime has not let up on advancing its military capabilities. Lots of pretty soldiers and and equipment and very, very well choreographed. It is a most impressive parade.
It appears we have even seen SLBMs in the parade.
2. New scaled-up ICBM spotted at military parade exercise in Pyongyang
donga.com – 10 October 2020
From the commentary it appears there is a larger version of the Hwasong 15 - a road mobile liquid fueled ICBM. The TEL has 11 axles which appears to be bigger than any previous system. Too early to do more than speculate that this could be the new ICBM.
3. Why a Naval Blockade of North Korea Would Utterly Fail
The National Interest · by James Holmes · October 9, 2020
Of course, it would probably not take as long as maximum pressure! :-). Of course, it is too extreme. But we need to take actions against the north's illicit shipping upon which it depends.
I am glad to see the Australians and the Canadians contributing to disrupting ship-to-ship illicit transfers by north Korea.
Canada has been deployed HMCS Winnipeg and its embarked CH-148 Cyclone helicopter to Op NEON and Australia’s Air Force P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft has been deployed on Op ARGOS.
Note this press release from Canadian defense ministry: https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/2020/10/the-canadian-armed-forces-takes-part-in-united-nations-security-council-sanctions-monitoring-in-the-asia-pacific-region.html
But I will continue to argue we need a holistic strategic strangulation campaign. https://www.fpri.org/article/2016/03/a-strategic-strangulation-campaign-for-north-korea-is-the-international-community-ready-for-what-may-come-next/ built on a foundation of Maximum Pressure 2.0 https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2019/12/3/maximum-pressure-2/
4. North Koreans attend concert for 75th anniversary of Worker's Party
Daily Mail · by Chris Pleasance for MailOnline · October 9, 2020
But we watched the parade today, there was not a mask in sight. I didn't see one person with a mask on. And Kim Jong-un said in his speech that there has not been on single case of COVID 19 in north Korea.
But the real question should be as in the subtitle. Will the parade and ceremony be a super spreader event?
5. October 10 was supposed to be a major celebration for Kim Jong Un. Instead he faces his most daunting challenges to date
CNN · by Joshua Berlinger
It turned out to be a major celebration on a scale we have not seen in recent years. Unfortunately for the Korean people in the north the celebration will do nothing to solve their daunting challenges and relive their suffering.
6. N. Korea showcases new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) during military parade
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · October 10, 2020
Here is a photo of the "new" system. I look forward to the analysis from the missile experts.
7. Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un Delivers Speech at Military Parade
Here is the text of Kim Jong-un's speech published in English by KCNA. No mention of US. No COVID cases. "Apology" for the hardships.
8. N. Korea waives quarantine procedures for Chinese diplomatic delegation
dailynk.com – Jang Seul Gi - October 9, 2020
A positive sign for nK-RC relations.
As an aside I also noticed what appeared to be a caucasian looking man on the 2d balcony over Kim Jong-un's shoulder. There were supposedly no foreigners invited to the celebration. Someone responded that it could be a mixed blood Korea.
9. Pyongyang shows off BRAND NEW intercontinental ballistic missile during military parade, according to experts
rt.com – 10 October 2020
With photos.
10. Kim Jong Un says there are no COVID cases in North Korea, hopes Pyongyang Can "hold hands again" with Seoul
Newsweek · by Brendan Cole · October 10, 2020
I would not be taken in by this comment. I think he probably means he would like to hold the hands of South Koreans when they are handcuffed behind their backs.
I have to look at this speech through the lean of political warfare. No mention of the US which I think may be in deference to the US election.
But I do not look at this as any kind of significant outreach to the South expect perhaps to throw the South a bone so the Moon administration will keep trying to conduct engagement in the hopes that the north can coerce concessions on sanctions in the near future.
But overall, I think the north presented us with a very shrewd, sharp, well edited taped video of the celebration to support its political warfare and deterrence objectives that is designed to provide a foundation for continued blackmail diplomacy with the South and with the US after the election.
11. Video of Alleged Firework Display at 75th Anniversary Parade in North Korea Shared Online
sputniknews.com · by Henry Batyaev. Sputnik International
A video is at the link. Recall Kim Yo-jong asking for a video of US 4th of July celebrations. I do not think their fireworks outside ours.
12. North Korean crypto hacking: Separating fact from fiction
cointelegraph.com · by Alex Cohen · October 9, 2020
Just remember that while we were all watching the parade north Korean hackers were hard at work conducting cyber operations around the world.
13. Stealth parade confounds North Korea watchers
asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · October 10, 2020
Nothing stealthy about it. It was a midnight parade and then their edited video showed us everything they wanted us to see.
14. North Korea Strengthens Propaganda Efforts Ahead of Key Party Anniversary
thediplomat.com · by Tae-jun Kang · October 9, 2020
Before, during, and after. After the north's nuclear and missile programs the Propaganda and Agitation Department is probably the most important agency for the Kim family regime (except for the OGD but of course the OGD controls the PAD)
"Don't go around saying the world owes you a living. The world owes you nothing. It was here first."
- Mark Twain
"Politics is war without bloodshed, while war is politics with bloodshed."
- Mao Zedong
"I venture to say no war can be long carried on against the will of the people."
- Edmund Burke