News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. FDD | UN Report Highlights How North Korea's Embassies Help Pyongyang Flout Sanctions

2. Three Things the U.S. Government Can Do Now to Ruin Kim Jong-un Financially

3. What Should Be on the Agenda for US-Korea Relations?

4. A practical approach to North Korea for the next US president

5. Post-election U.S. likely to see changes in N. Korea policy: experts

6. 3 mysteries cloud South Korean's shooting death by North Korea

7. North Korea's Short-Range Ballistic Missiles: They Can't "Evade Detection" and Are Still Vulnerable to Interception

8. Top DPRK leader wishes U.S. president recovery from COVID-19

9. [VOA: Washington Talk/English] The murder of the Korean people...

10. New Eighth Army commander seeks 'rigorous, realistic' training for US, South Korea troops

11. Pompeo's visit to Seoul to focus on regional cooperation: Stilwell

12. 'She has not been demoted': Kim Jong-un's sister Kim Yo Jong makes first appearance since July

13. South Korea Doesn't Need U.S. Military Babysitting

14. Unusual Submarine Likely To Increase Threat From North Korea

15. Nobody ever said Kim Il-sung could teleport | East Asia Forum

 

1. FDD | UN Report Highlights How North Korea's Embassies Help Pyongyang Flout Sanctions

fdd.org · by Mathew Ha · October 1, 2020

Important analysis from my colleague Mathew Ha.

 

2. Three Things the U.S. Government Can Do Now to Ruin Kim Jong-un Financially

https://www.nkhiddengulag.org/blog/three-things-the-us-government-can-do-now-to-ruin-kim-jong-un-financially – by Jeune Kim – 1 October 2020

More excellent work from the HRNK team.

Excerpts:

The three following recommendations specify what the U.S. government can do now to ruin Kim Jong-un financially:

1. Federal Recognition and Regulation of Cryptocurrency

2. Raise the Legal Stakes for North Korea's Enablers

3. Penalize Chinese Banks and Financial Institutions for Violating or Failing to Enforce International Sanctions

My thoughts from four years ago for a strategic strangulation campaign: https://www.fpri.org/article/2016/03/a-strategic-strangulation-campaign-for-north-korea-is-the-international-community-ready-for-what-may-come-next/

 

3. What Should Be on the Agenda for US-Korea Relations?

thediplomat.com · by Troy Stangarone · October 2, 2020

Some interesting findings and data about US attitudes toward Korea.

 

4. A practical approach to North Korea for the next US president

https://thebulletin.org/2020/10/a-practical-approach-to-north-korea-for-the-next-us-president/ - by Joseph Yun and Frank Aum – 2 October 2020

I expect both Joe and Frank will have prominent positions in a Biden administration.

Key excerpts:

What might work? A significant impediment for the United States is that it continues to narrowly limit its policy options while North Korean capabilities expand unabated. Washington's window of discourse on North Korea policy largely consists of: Pressure the Kim regime through sanctions; don't legitimize or reward it until preconditions are met; and don't make any concessions until the North takes significant denuclearization measures first. To achieve any sustained results, these policy boundaries must be substantially widened to include more realistic and practical measures. We, along with our colleagues at the United States Institute of Peace, explored many of these issues in a recent report, "A Peace Regime for the Korean Peninsula."

Prioritize peace in parallel with denuclearization. 

Ensure reciprocity and proportionality.

Emphasize realistic, short-term security payoffs while playing the long game on denuclearization. 

Enhance buy-in from regional partners.

 

5. Post-election U.S. likely to see changes in N. Korea policy: experts

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 2, 2020

This is probably likely: "They also noted the North Korean issue would likely be put aside in the early stages of the new administration, which they said will be too caught up in dealing with its own domestic issues such as the COVID-19 pandemic."  Ironically you could make a similar statement about north Korea though I think we still might see a "welcome or congratulatory gift from the Kim family regime to the election victor whether it is Trump or Biden.

 

6. 3 mysteries cloud South Korean's shooting death by North Korea

asia.nikkei.com – by Sotaro Suzuki – 2 October 2020

I really wish the ROK government would not continue the narrative of defection or put the blame for the murder of a Korean civil servant on the shoulders of the victim.

Key questions:  Despite a rare apology from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un that averted a further deterioration of bilateral relations, the family and others seek answers to three questions: Was the official really defecting to North Korea? Why was no rescue attempt made? And why did it take President Moon Jae-in days to address the slaying publicly?

In defense of the ROK Navy - the timing and capabilities are key - when did they know about a man overboard?  Did they have ships in the area that could respond? If their knowledge of the incident came from SIGINT with no knowledge of the man overboard it logically and naturally took time to analyze those intercepts and hindered any possible response.  And lastly searching for a man overboard is inherently difficult and unfortunately too often we lose men at sea when they do go overboard.

 

7. North Korea's Short-Range Ballistic Missiles: They Can't "Evade Detection" and Are Still Vulnerable to Interception

38north.org · by Michael Elleman · October 2, 2020

 

8. Top DPRK leader wishes U.S. president recovery from COVID-19

Xinhua | English.news.cn

xinhuanet.com

A savvy move by Kim.

 

9. [VOA: Washington Talk/English] The murder of the Korean people...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEbb0vrB2JE

At the link is the 20 minute video of this week's edition of the Voice of America's Washington Talk.  The primary target audience of this VOA broadcast is the elite in Pyongyang.

Jean Lee (the former AP Bureau Chief in Pyongyang) and I speak with VOA broadcaster and host Kim Young Gyo about the recent murder of the South Korean civil servant at the hands of the north Korea military.

It is broadcast in English with Korean subtitles.

 

10. New Eighth Army commander seeks 'rigorous, realistic' training for US, South Korea troops

Stars and Stripes – by Kim Gamel – 2 October 2020

 

11. Pompeo's visit to Seoul to focus on regional cooperation: Stilwell

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 3, 2020

Regional cooperation is important but the alliances first and always.

 

12. 'She has not been demoted': Kim Jong-un's sister Kim Yo Jong makes first appearance since July

nationalpost.com – by John Herskovitz – 2 October 2020

How many times are we going to keep getting excited about such "disappearances?"

 

13. South Korea Doesn't Need U.S. Military Babysitting

Foreign Policy · by Doug Bandow · October 2, 2020

Sigh... such an insult to the alliance and the ROK and US militaries. I know Mr. Bandow is a former defense official but I do not think he understands the military alliance and the relationship between our two militaries.  We are not babysitting the South.  That is simply insulting.

Yes, Seoul is rich and it should be able to deter Pyongyang by itself.  The problem with that is deterrence is in the eye of the target of deterrence. My concern, which comes from knowledge from escapees (defectors) that what deters Kim the most is the presence of US forces.  The regime knows the north cannot win a war if the South has the support of the US.

And most importantly it is in US interests to deter war on the Korean peninsula. 

Yes, circumstances change and the alliance must evolve.  That is why we are pursuing OPCON transition which will result in a change of command with a ROK general officer assuming command of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command, the command charged by both nations with deterrence and defense of the ROK.

 

14. Unusual Submarine Likely To Increase Threat From North Korea

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2020/10/unusual-submarine-likely-to-increase-threat-from-north-korea/ - by HI Sutton – 2 October 2020

Interesting.  I would like to hear from naval and intelligence experts.

 

15. Nobody ever said Kim Il-sung could teleport | East Asia Forum

eastasiaforum.org · by Martin Weiser · October 3, 2020

An interesting critique of how we interpret north Korean news and information.

 

"The battlefield is a scene of constant chaos. The winner will be the one who controls that chaos, both his own and the enemies."

- Napoleon

 

"The soldier who fights to death never dies, but the soldier who fights for existence never truly exists."

-Admiral Yi Sun-shin

 

"Education should implant a will and a facility for learning; it should produce not learned but learning people. In times of change, learners inherit the earth, while the learned find themselves equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists."

- Eric Hoffer

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Public Service Announcement - We're in This Together. Disinformation Stops with You.

2. Former USSOCOM Commander and Former Top Air Force Intelligence Officer Join Primer's Advisory Board

3. Can AI Detect Disinformation? A New Special Operations Program May Find Out

4. Why the Pentagon needs to fully embrace influence operations

5. Irregular Warfare Annex to National Defense Strategy Made Public

6. US Army To Dissolve Rapid Equipping Force, Asymmetric Warfare Group

7. Irregular warfare strategies must move beyond special forces, Pentagon says

8. What leaders can do now to strengthen US special operations forces

9. Policy Chief Outlines Changes to U.S. Defense Postures in Germany, European Theater

10. FDD | Ransomware Rising: Steps for The Public and Private Sector to Address the Growing Threat

11. Trump team on watch for adversaries to exploit the president's illness

12. US military pilots must not use PH aircraft codes: Esperon

13. 'Got to fix that': Some unit ops tempos higher than peaks of Afghan, Iraq wars, Army chief says

14.  Chinese general says Korean War shows how to defeat America

15. China should effectively enhance ability to fight, win wars (and lessons from the Korean War)

16. MDA and Army see successful Patriot and THAAD test after failure

17. Wolf Warriors Blow Hot Before Cooling Down (China)

18. The Covid Information War Is Entering a Frightening New Phase

19. Public Diplomacy and the New "Old" War: Countering State-Sponsored Disinformation (2020)

20. America is a maritime nation, and we need to start acting like it

21. India to lose more than it gains from the Quad

 

1. Public Service Announcement - We're in This Together. Disinformation Stops with You.

A two-page PDF from the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency on countering disinformation.  It can be downloaded here: https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/publications/election-disinformation-toolkit_508.pdf

My reminder from our 2017 National Security Strategy:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

 

2. Former USSOCOM Commander and Former Top Air Force Intelligence Officer Join Primer's Advisory Board

PR Newswire · by Primer AI · October 1, 2020

 

3. Can AI Detect Disinformation? A New Special Operations Program May Find Out

defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker

I hope this works and helps.  But the best detection "tool" is still the human mind and critical thinking. And the best defense comes from within the human mind.  But I am all for trying to enlist technology to help.  But when we think we have the silver bullet of a technological solution we had beet watch out because our adversaries will surely figure out how to turn that silver bullet to their advantage. 

And I think I have heard this before:

"It's no stretch to say it was easier to drop a Hellfire on someone or do something kinetic than it was to do something offensively in the information domain. It's antithetical to us. ... but if your adversaries are playing in that space, you have to respond," he said.

 

4. Why the Pentagon needs to fully embrace influence operations

Defense News · by Mark Pomerleau · October 2, 2020

Good to read this statement.  Influence operations are critical. And they play a key role in political warfare which must be a national effort.  We need an American Way of Political Warfare as we recommended here two years ago: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PE300/PE304/RAND_PE304.pdf

We have to understand that our adversaries have a different view of warfare than we do.  But we can adapt and fight in the same domain.  My thoughts:

• What is the major difference in the views of conflict, strategy, and campaigning between Russia, China, Iran, nK, AQ, and ISIS and the US?

• The psychological takes precedence and may or may not be supported with the kinetic.
  • Politics is war by other means

• For the US kinetic is first and the psychological is second.
  • War is politics by other means.

• Napoleon: In war, the moral is to the physical as three is to one.
• In the 21st Century the psychological is to the kinetic as ten is to one.
• The US has to learn to put the psychological first
• Can a federal democratic republic "do strategy" this way?
• Or is it only autocratic, totalitarian dictatorships that can "do strategy" this way?

Problem
We face threats from political warfare strategies supported by hybrid military approaches.
Solution:
Learn to lead with influence
Learn to counter and conduct political warfare campaigns
Cultural and/or organizational change

 

Keep this in mind about Russia's New Generation of Non-Linear Warfare:

"Thus, the Russian view of modern warfare is based on the idea that the main battlespace is the mind and, as a result, new-generation wars are to be dominated by information and psychological warfare, in order to achieve superiority in troops and weapons control, morally and psychologically depressing the enemy's armed forces personnel and civil population. The main objective is to reduce the necessity for deploying hard military power to the minimum necessary, making the opponent's military and civil population support the attacker to the detriment of their own government and country. It is interesting to note the notion of permanent war, since it denotes a permanent enemy. In the current geopolitical structure, the clear enemy is Western civilization, its values, culture, political system, and ideology."

http://www.naa.mil.lv/~/media/NAA/AZPC/Publikacijas/PP%2002-2014.ashx

 

5. Irregular Warfare Annex to National Defense Strategy Made Public

defense.gov · by David Vergun

Here is the link to the Unclassified 12 page summary of the  Irregular Warfare Annex. https://media.defense.gov/2020/Oct/02/2002510472/-1/-1/0/Irregular-Warfare-Annex-to-the-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary.PDF

 

I find the timing very coincidental that the army announced today that it is disbanding the Asymmetric Warfare  Group (AWG): https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-army/2020/10/02/the-army-is-shutting-down-its-much-lauded-asymmetric-warfare-group/

 

The IW annex makes clear many important points:

Irregular warfare is an enduring, economical contribution to America's national security, and will remain an essential core competency of the U.S. Department of Defense.

We must not - and will not - repeat the "boom and bust" cycle that has left the United States underprepared for irregular warfare in both Great Power Competition and conflict. Americans expect their military to do more than react to crises, they expect us to compete and maintain our advantages.

IW is a persistent and enduring operational reality employed by non-state actors and increasingly by state actors in competition with the United States. Past U.S. approaches to IW have been cyclical and neglected the fact that IW - in addition to nuclear and conventional deterrence - can proactively shape conditions to the United States' advantage in great power competition. This reactive cycle fails to prepare the United States to conduct traditional warfare or irregular warfare effectively. All of these conditions are reversible.

 

6. US Army To Dissolve Rapid Equipping Force, Asymmetric Warfare Group

defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker

Quite a coincidence with the new IW annex coming out today.  

 

7. Irregular warfare strategies must move beyond special forces, Pentagon says

Defense News · by Aaron Mehta · October 2, 2020

The key word is strategy.  If we develop sound strategy and effective campaign plans we will use the right forces for the right missions.  You must campaign in the irregular warfare space.

Here are my eight points of irregular/special warfare.

Eight Points of Irregular Warfare:

https://maxoki161.blogspot.com/2018/07/eight-points-of-special-warfare.html

Special Warfare is the execution of activities that involve a combination of lethal and nonlethal actions taken by a specially trained and educated force that has a deep understanding of cultures and foreign language, proficiency in small-unit tactics, and the ability to build and fight alongside indigenous combat formations in a permissive, uncertain, or hostile environment.

-If there is an indigenous solution or an indigenous contribution to the solution for a complex political military problem conduct special warfare - the essence of which is "through, with, and by" as developed by Mark Boyatt

1.  Instead of an end state must determine the acceptable, durable, political arrangement that can achieved. (per LTG James Dubik) Without this clearly articulated and understood there is no way to achieve unity of effort or to judge mission success. I think Congress must demand this from the Administration.

 2. Eliot Cohen & John Gooch: Military Misfortune:  All military failures are a result of a failure learn, failure to adapt, and failure to anticipate. We must learn to anticipate and that is done through thorough and ongoing assessments and heeding the expert practitioners on the ground. Look at Mali and Yemen.  Did we anticipate the Turegs and the Houthis?  I would submit that SOF on the ground reported on the growing threats to Mali and Yemen yet our myopic focus on CT blinded us at the strategic level.

3. Larry Cable (the discredited COIN theorist who wrote Conflict of Myths) The three P's: Presence, Patience, Persistence.  You have to be present to make a difference.  You have to be patient because it takes a long time to influence indigenous forces and develop indigenous capabilities. You must have cultural respect without going native and you must have an aptitude and desire for living and working in a foreign culture.  It takes persistence because mistakes will be made, every operation will include discovery learning and we will have to learn and adapt.

 4. Assessment - must conduct continuous assessment to gain understanding - tactical, operational, and strategic.  Assessments are key to developing strategy and campaign plans and anticipating potential conflict.  Assessments allow you to challenge assumptions and determine if a rebalance of, ways and means with the acceptable, durable, political arrangement is required. Understand the indigenous way of war and adapt to it.   Do not force the US way of war upon indigenous forces if is counter to their history, customs, traditions, and abilities.

5.  Assure US and indigenous interests are sufficiently aligned.  If indigenous and US interests are not sufficiently aligned the mission will fail.  If the US has stronger interest than the indigenous force we can create an "assistance paradox" - if indigenous forces believe the US mission is "no fail" and the US forces will not allow them to fail and therefore they do not need to try too hard.  They may very well benefit from long term US aid and support which may be their objective for accepting support in the first place.

 6. Employ the right forces for the right mission. US SOF, conventional, civilian agency, indigenous forces.  Always based on assessment and thorough understanding of the problem and available resources and capabilities.  Cannot over rely on one force to do everything.  

7.  Learn how to operate without being in charge.  If we usurp the mission indigenous forces will never be successful on their own.  You cannot pay lip service to advising and assisting.  This is why operations in Colombia and the Philippines achieve some level of success. This is not "leading from behind."  This is the appropriate understanding of the relationship between USSF/SOF and indigenous forces in a sovereign nation or indigenous forces seeking self-determination of government.

 8. Campaigning  - We have to develop the campaign plan based on Design thinking to determine the resources and authorities - and then execute the campaign - we have to get good at campaigning and it has to be more than a military campaign. (USSOCOM Design: Appreciate the context, understand the problem, and develop an approach). While disrupting terrorist attacks and attacking terrorist networks and their finances and auxiliaries are important they are not a strategy. They can be part of a strategy and campaign but they are not sufficient.  We have to campaign beyond counter-terrorism with a campaign focused on attacking the enemy's strategy.  This requires deep understanding to include especially understanding the enemy's political objectives.  Once we understand the enemy, ways and means can be employed to counter the enemy's strategy and his political objectives. Campaigning is important because it will orchestrate all the activities to achieve the strategic objectives or the acceptable, durable political arrangement we seek.   Campaigns identify the resources necessary (forces, bases, funding).  Campaigns identify the authorities necessary.  Although many in the military and government desire blanket authorities that is not the right way to operate.  However, establishing programs and funding lines such as 1206, 1207, 1208, and 1209 and now 127E are not effective either.  Authorities need to be specifically applied to each campaign. And with an approved campaign plan Congress can more effectively provide oversight rather than managing funding programs.  Campaigns must also account for transitions (and demobilization in UW) when working with indigenous forces because we cannot advise and assist and provide support indefinitely. Focusing on effective campaigning can discipline the application of the military instrument of power.  Of course, it would useful for other elements of national power to be able to "campaign" as well.  We perhaps need to take another look at the 1997 PDD 56 which was for the management of complex contingency operations in the interagency - a disciplined process to orchestrate US government agencies and harmonize the instruments of power.

 

8. What leaders can do now to strengthen US special operations forces

taskandpurpose.com · by Lt. Col. Stewart Parker and Emma Moore

Key points from the authors:

Clearly articulate and enforce SOF team priorities

Nurture health and resilience

Ruthlessly manage operations tempo

What leaders can do now to strengthen US special operations forces

 

9. Policy Chief Outlines Changes to U.S. Defense Postures in Germany, European Theater

defense.gov · by Terri Moon Cronk

Excerpt: "The realignment concept includes consolidating headquarters to strengthen operational agility, repositioning some forces in the United States to focus on readiness, and to prepare for rotational deployments and deploying rotational forces to the Black Sea region, NATO's southeastern flank, to improve deterrence," Anderson said.

 

10. FDD | Ransomware Rising: Steps for The Public and Private Sector to Address the Growing Threat

fdd.org · by RADM (Ret) Mark Montgomery CCTI Senior Director and Senior Fellow Trevor Logan Cyber Research Analyst· October 2, 2020

Conclusion: These seven steps are all key both to building more resilient networks that are less susceptible to ransomware attacks, and to establishing greater government capacity for cyber collaboration to prevent or mitigate attacks when they do occur. The use of ransomware is on the rise; cybercrime writ large is on the rise; and both will continue to grow until companies and municipalities take appropriate steps to secure their, and our, data from exposure and theft.

 

11. Trump team on watch for adversaries to exploit the president's illness

Politico – 2 October 2020

We must be vigilant. I had a good conversation with my good friend and mentor, Bob Collins who is one of our nation's experts on north Korean leadership decision making.  He is rightly concerned with north Korean miscalculation in the coming weeks.  My counter was the regime is focused on its multiple internal crises.  But Bob points out Kim may see an opportunity for coercing South Korea for concessions with a provocation while they assess the US is distracted and will not respond.  Of course the regime's first action was to send well-wishes to President Trump.  Perhaps they are setting the groundwork for something.  Kim may be trying to inoculate himself from a US reaction to a provocation against South Korea because he is giving the appearance of trying to sustain his relationship with the President. 

 

12. US military pilots must not use PH aircraft codes: Esperon

canadianinquirer.net · October 1, 2020

What the h.....?  I am very skeptical of this allegation.

 

13. 'Got to fix that': Some unit ops tempos higher than peaks of Afghan, Iraq wars, Army chief says

armytimes.com · by Kyle Rempfer · October 2, 2020

Everyone thinks SOF, the infantry, and the Navy have high OPTEMPOS but check out our air and missile defenders.

 

14. Chinese general says Korean War shows how to defeat America

Washington Examiner · by Tom Rogan · October 2, 2020

The referenced article is at this link but I will include it separately as well. https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1202566.shtml

 

15. China should effectively enhance ability to fight, win wars (and lessons from the Korean War)

globaltimes.cn

There is a lot to parse from this.  It is a very interesting read from a Chinese Lieutenant General.  We should pay close attention to what senior leaders are writing.  There is obviously a message for us, perhaps as simple as China will stand up to the US and beware of the strength of the PRC.

 

16. MDA and Army see successful Patriot and THAAD test after failure

Defense News · by Jen Judson · October 1, 2020

These are obviously critical systems and capabilities for the INDOPACIFIC and around the world.

 

17. Wolf Warriors Blow Hot Before Cooling Down (China)

globalasia.org

Excerpt: "This essay covers the controversial and significant period of "wolf-warrior" diplomacy in China in 2020 - rising in March, resisted in April and receding in May."  Has it receded?  

 

18. The Covid Information War Is Entering a Frightening New Phase

Wired · by Gilad Edelman

We need to understand this (or the White House needs to): Communication from the White House about Donald Trump's infection will be opaque at best. Into that vacuum, misinformation will flow.

 

19. Public Diplomacy and the New "Old" War: Countering State-Sponsored Disinformation (2020)

This is an important report.  The 62 page PDF can be downloaded here: https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Public-Diplomacy-and-the-New-Old-War-Countering-State-Sponsored-Disinformation.pdf

My one critique is the graphics of the report. The theme throughout is 1's and 0's.  To me that emphasizes too strongly the cyber and technical aspect;.  But in this the human remains central and most important. Cyber is neither the blame or the solution.  It is just a medium and tool.

But I think the recommendations from the report are very useful and important with, I think, number three the most important and our biggest weakness:

1 DEFINE. Define the CSD challenge with a Department-wide lexicon of disinformation.

2 INVEST. Invest more in digital capabilities, but not at the expense of long-term person-to person initiatives. 

3 COMPETE. Compete in the information space by restructuring overseas PD sections with teams dedicated to modern digital communications.

4 SPECIALIZE. Create a job series for mid-career CSD specialists.

5 EXPERIMENT. Develop mechanisms to rapidly redirect funding to seed programs and allow them to scale or fail-fast.

6 EVALUATE. Evaluate, monitor, and assess the impact of CSD programs.

 

20. America is a maritime nation, and we need to start acting like it

Defense News · by Rep. Rob Wittman · September 30, 2020

Even as a former soldier, I concur with the Congressman.  We are a maritime nation and our Navy and our Coast Guard are critically important.

 

21. India to lose more than it gains from the Quad

asiatimes.com · by More by Bhim Bhurtel · October 2, 2020

This is a very negative critique of the "QUAD" concept.

 

"The battlefield is a scene of constant chaos. The winner will be the one who controls that chaos, both his own and the enemies."

- Napoleon

 

"The soldier who fights to death never dies, but the soldier who fights for existence never truly exists."

-Admiral Yi Sun-shin

 

"Education should implant a will and a facility for learning; it should produce not learned but learning people. In times of change, learners inherit the earth, while the learned find themselves equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists."

- Eric Hoffer

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Russia’s Fancy Bear hackers likely penetrated a US federal agency

2. Mike Pompeo should visit Taiwan

3. Marine Corps activates first new base in nearly 70 years

4. No matter who wins in November, budget cuts and domestic politics will crimp America’s China strategy

5. Facebook, Twitter flounder in QAnon crackdown

6. ‘We’re not taking a knee’: training under pandemic conditions could better prepare soldiers for the big fight

7. The Asia inheritance: Trump and US alliances

8. Kremlin orders 2-week virus quarantine for all Putin visitors – Reports

9. Trump tweets that he will overturn recent changes to the Navy SEAL ethos

10. Two more reasons to worry about China

11. Why downplaying China's election interference could backfire

12. What if Sherman Kent was wrong? Revisiting the intelligence debate of 1949

13. Pentagon urges caution in linking steep increase in Army suicides to pandemic

14. A solarium for presidential transition teams

15. 50 U.S. senators call for talks on trade agreement with Taiwan

16. How Russia targets U.S. elections

17. The United States has repatriated 27 Americans from Syria and Iraq including ten charged with terrorism-related offenses for their support to ISIS

18. British Army to become force of ‘boots and bots’: CGS

19. Why Trump’s retreat from US allies could have nuclear consequences

20. The truth about today’s anarchists

 

1. Russia’s Fancy Bear hackers likely penetrated a US federal agency

Wired · Andy Greenberg · October 1, 2020

I wonder what agency.

 

2. Mike Pompeo Should Visit Taiwan

National Interest · Michael Rubin · October 1, 2020

This would really raise tensions to a boiling point.

But I am not really clear what critical strategic effect we would be trying to achieve with such a visit.

 

3. Marine Corps activates first new base in nearly 70 years

Marine Corps Times · Philip Athey · October 1, 2020

Will we shift more forces from Okinawa to Guam?

 

4. No matter who wins in November, budget cuts and domestic politics will crimp America’s China strategy

Diplomat · Jacob Parakilas · September 30, 2020

And I think the effects of COVID-19 are going to be felt for years to come.

 

5. Facebook, Twitter flounder in QAnon crackdown

AP News · Amanda Seitz & Barbara Ortutay · October 1, 2020

This QAon conspiracy is just crazy. But it still amazes me how any sane or normal person could fall for it.

 

6. ‘We’re not taking a knee’: training under pandemic conditions could better prepare soldiers for the big fight

Stars & Stripes · Corey Dickstein · October 1, 2020

The military must "fight through" this pandemic. If we fail to do so, we not only damage readiness, we also telegraph our weakness to our adversaries, and they will surely try to develop biological weapons that will cause our military to halt operations.

 

7. The Asia inheritance: Trump and US Alliances

Diplomat · Abraham M. Denmark & Shihoko Goto · October 1, 2020

Some apparent good news. We need our alliance structure. Without it we are vulnerable, and we will be unable to protect our national interests.

 

8. Kremlin orders 2-week virus quarantine for all Putin visitors – Reports

Moscow Times · September 30, 2020

Very interesting timing of this order (this report is from Wednesday). Did the Kremlin know something before we did?

 

9. Trump tweets that he will overturn recent changes to the Navy SEAL ethos

Navy Times · Geoff Ziezulewicz · October 1, 2020

We just do not need this.

 

10. Two more reasons to worry about China

FDD · Thomas Joscelyn · October 1, 2020

Don't we have enough already? 

 

11. Why Downplaying China's Election Interference Could Backfire

FDD · by Craig Singleton · October 1, 2020

 

12. What if Sherman Kent was wrong? Revisiting the intelligence debate of 1949

War On the Rocks · Zachery Tyson Brown · October 1, 2020

 

13. Pentagon urges caution in linking steep increase in Army suicides to pandemic

ABC News · Luis Martinez · October 1, 2020

 

14. A solarium for presidential transition teams

War On the Rocks · Benjamin Jensen · October 1, 2020

A useful tutorial on the transition process.

 

15. 50 U.S. senators call for talks on trade agreement with Taiwan

Reuters · Patricia Zengerle & David Gregorio · October 1, 2020

 

16. How Russia targets U.S. elections

RAND · Marek N. Posard et al.

 

17. The United States has repatriated 27 Americans from Syria and Iraq including ten charged with terrorism-related offenses for their support to ISIS

US Department of Justice · October 1, 2020

 

18. British Army to become force of ‘boots and bots’: CGS

Army Technology · Harry Lye · September 30, 2020

 

19. Why Trump’s retreat from US allies could have nuclear consequences

Defense One · Eric Brewer · October 1, 2020

A cautionary note.

 

20. The truth about today’s anarchists

New York Times · Farah Stockman · September 30, 2020

 

"The nation that will insist on drawing a broad line of demarcation between the fighting man and the thinking man is liable to find its fighting done by fools and its thinking done by cowards."

- Sir William Francis Butler

"The history that lies inert in unread books does no work in the world. If you want a new idea, read an old book. `Tis the good reader that makes the good book. A book is like a mirror. If an ass looks in, no prophet can peer out."

- The "maxims” quoted from Clark Becker, Lord Lytton, Ralph Waldo Emerson, and Georg Lichtenberg quoted in Jay Luuvas' Military History: Is It Still Practicable?

“The world has achieved brilliance without conscience. Ours is a world of nuclear giants and ethical infants.”

- General of the Army, Omar Bradley, rendered on Veterans Day 1948 (then called Armistice Day)

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. N.K. leader inspects flood recovery efforts together with sister

2. Kim Jong Un’s sister reported in public for 1st time since July

3. What an 'October surprise' from North Korea might actually look like

4. North Korea imports of refined fuel plummet amid COVID-19

5. Mini nuclear reactors with key South Korean parts cleared by US

6. Alleged North Korean sanctions violations in DRC draw scrutiny

7. Exclusive: New poll shows few Americans approve of Trump’s handling of North Korea

8. N. Korea-China trade plummets 70 pct during Jan-Aug on-year amid pandemic

9. How Donald Trump is building a new alliance to counter China and North Korea

10. Trump blocks assistance to N. Korea over human trafficking

11. Post-election U.S. likely to see changes in N. Korea policy: experts

12. Russia is responsible for most nation-state cyberattacks, followed by Iran, North Korea, and China, according to a new Microsoft report

13. Pyongyang must pay

 

1. N.K. leader inspects flood recovery efforts together with sister

Yonhap News Agency · Yi Wonju · October 02, 2020

As an aside some Korea watchers on twitter are commenting on the size of Kim's trousers - #KimJongUnTrouserWatch.

 

2. Kim Jong Un’s sister reported in public for 1st time since July

Bloomberg · Jon Herskovitz · October 1, 2020

She's back!

 

3. What an ‘October surprise’ from North Korea might actually look like

Atlantic Council · Markus Garlauskas · October 1, 2020

I am hoping all the discussion about an October surprise has reduced the element of surprise, which will not allow Kim to achieve an October surprise! Certainly, if we see some new weapons on October 10^th, it should not be a surprise. I am just wondering how they intend to have the submarine march in the parade so they can show us an SLBM (apologies for the poor attempt at humor).

 

4. North Korea imports of refined fuel plummet amid COVID-19

UPI · Elizabeth Shim · October 1, 2020

 

5. Mini nuclear reactors with key South Korean parts cleared by US

Nikkei Asia · Kotaro Hosokawa, Azusa Kawakami, & Shuhei Ochiai · September 29, 2020

 

6. Alleged North Korean sanctions violations in DRC draw scrutiny

VOA · Salem Solomon · October 1, 2020

Follow the money.

 

7. Exclusive: New poll shows few Americans approve of Trump’s handling of North Korea

VOX · Alex Ward · October 1, 2020

It is unlikely this will have any impact on the election. North Korea and Kim Jong-un are just not significant election issues and will not change any votes.

 

8. N. Korea-China trade plummets 70 pct during Jan-Aug on-year amid pandemic

Yonhap News Agency · pbr@yna.co.kr · October 2, 2020

 

9. How Donald Trump is building a new alliance to counter China and North Korea

National Interest · William Jeynes · October 1, 2020

A troubling conclusion.

 

10. Trump blocks assistance to N. Korea over human trafficking

Yonhap News Agency · Byun Duk-Kun · October 2, 2020

 

11. Post-election U.S. likely to see changes in N. Korea policy: experts

Yonhap News Agency · Byun Duk-Kun · October 2, 2020

Regardless of who wins in November, it is likely Korea will not be a top priority after the inauguration.

 

12. Russia is responsible for most nation-state cyberattacks, followed by Iran, North Korea, and China, according to a new Microsoft report

Business Insider · Ben Gilbert · October 1, 2020

Interesting order of the countries.

 

13. Pyongyang must pay

Korea Joong Ang Daily · Nam Jeong-Ho · September 29, 2020

 

"The nation that will insist on drawing a broad line of demarcation between the fighting man and the thinking man is liable to find its fighting done by fools and its thinking done by cowards."

- Sir William Francis Butler

"The history that lies inert in unread books does no work in the world. If you want a new idea, read an old book. `Tis the good reader that makes the good book. A book is like a mirror. If an ass looks in, no prophet can peer out."

- The "maxims” quoted from Clark Becker, Lord Lytton, Ralph Waldo Emerson, and Georg Lichtenberg quoted in Jay Luuvas' Military History: Is It Still Practicable?

“The world has achieved brilliance without conscience. Ours is a world of nuclear giants and ethical infants.”

- General of the Army, Omar Bradley, rendered on Veterans Day 1948 (then called Armistice Day)