Small Wars Journal

10/08/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

Thu, 10/08/2020 - 9:23am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. US military hasn't used $60 million in South Korean defense funds, data show

2. Does South Korea still need US troops?

3. North Korean Defector Who Vanished in Rome Is Now in South Korea

4.  The Iran-North Korea Axis Rides On

5. Moon hopes for S. Korea-U.S. collaboration on declaring end to Korean War

6. N. Korea's media-carried criticism against South jumped more than sixfold last year: data

7. North Korea may return to fire-and-fury mode in time to ruin 2021

8. Nigerian, South Korean make last round of WTO chief race - sources

9. [In-Depth] Denuclearization of North Korea driven to a dead end...Re-emergence of 'regime transformation' solution

10.  Sanctions a powerful tool, but take time to have effect: U.S. security adviser

11. N.Korean Diplomat Failed to Gain Asylum in Europe

12. N. Korean military told to block "quarantine contaminants" at border

13. N. Korea increases number of checkpoints nationwide ahead of Party Foundation Day

14. North may unveil new ICBM: Unification Ministry

15. North Korea's Big October 10 Military Parade: Here Come the ICBMs?

16. North Korean Port Cities Hit Hard by Trade Sanctions, Coronavirus Closures

17. Korean War: The Forgotten Heroism of U.S. Army Infantry Soldiers at Chosin Reservoir

18. Taiwan inspects port, tells shippers to follow North Korea sanctions

19. How N.Korea Holds Diplomats' Children Hostage

 

1.  US military hasn't used $60 million in South Korean defense funds, data show

stripes.com

This is explainable but unfortunately the complexity of contracting and facilities construction makes it very difficult to explain.  But the key point is a ROK legislator is releasing this to put pressure on the US in the stalled SMA.  We must keep in mind that any agreement between the US and the ROK must be approved by the ROK General Assembly.  

 

2. Does South Korea still need US troops?

Asia Times  · by Andrew Salmon · October 7, 2020

Like most of these kinds of analyses the wrong question is asked.  The right question is does the US need troops in South Korea.  And the answer is yes because they serve US national security interests.

 

3. North Korean Defector Who Vanished in Rome Is Now in South Korea

WSJ · by Andrew Jeong· October 7, 2020

The north of course knew about this escape more than a year ago.  It does somewhat undermine the regime but its Propaganda and Agitation Department can and will spin this to make it appear to be South Korea's fault.

I am sure that South Korea tried to keep this information confidential so that it would not get in the way of its efforts to improve north-South relations. Surely north Korea will try to exploit this and use it against South Korea.

It was the height of irresponsibility for a South Korean lawmaker to release this information.  He has put Jo and his wife in great danger.  His daughter had already been returned to north Korea when Jo and his wife "vanished" and if she is still alive, I expect her to suffer even more.

I think all defections/escapes are personal and unique. It is hard to know if this will influence others but each person defects and escapes for various reasons (particularly high officials). Recall Hwang Jong-yop thought Kim Jong-il was going to either go to war or catastrophically damage north Korea and he defected to try to keep peace on the Korean peninsula. Thae Yong-ho defected because his son's did not want to return to Pyongyang and he could no longer explain the contradiction that is north Korea.  

Most senior escapee/defectors are exposed.  I think in this case Jo's situation was kept confidential because the Moon administration did not want to harm possible north-South engagement.

 

4. The Iran-North Korea Axis Rides On

dailysignal.com · by Peter Brookes · October 7, 2020

Again, read Dr. Bruce Bechtol's research on this.  In fact I Iranian military analysts should be watching the north Korean military parade on October 10th because as Bruce always reminds, me if you see it in north Korea you will eventually see it in Iran.

 

5. Moon hopes for S. Korea-U.S. collaboration on declaring end to Korean War

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · October 8, 2020

President Moon and his administration need to lay out exactly what effects they hope to achieve with an "end of war declaration."  This is not some kind of "feel good" action.  What do they expect north Korea do if there is an end of war declaration and how is the security of the ROK going to be enhanced by an end of war declaration with the world's 4th largest army that is offensively postured with 70% of its forces deployed along the DMZ to Pyongyang and possess nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons.  And most important, how does this enhance the security of the ROK when the unchanged objective of the regime is to dominate the entire Korean peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

 

6. N. Korea's media-carried criticism against South jumped more than sixfold last year: data

en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · October 8, 2020

Why is this? It is an indication of the weakness of the regime.  

As Dr. Jung Pak often asks, Who does Kim Jong-un fear more: the US or the Korean people living in the north?

The answer is he fears the Korean people living in the north.  And he fears them even more when they are armed with information and in particular information about the South. That is because it is the example of the South's freedom, and advanced social, political, economic, and military development is a threat to the Kim family regime. Kim Jong-un fears his people and their desire to live the life of those in the South.  This is why the Propaganda and Agitation Department has had to increase propaganda to try to counter this.

 

7. North Korea may return to fire-and-fury mode in time to ruin 2021

asia.nikkei.com

It is probably a good bet to put your money on a return to fire-and-fury. However, we should not be focused on the short term tactical.  We need to focus on the regime long term political warfare and the key elements of its strategy and objectives and focus on these questions:

Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has or will ever abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?

In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula?  Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?

The answers to these questions should guide us to the strategy to solve the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice) and lead to the only acceptable durable political arrangement: A secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government with respect for individual liberty, the rule of law, and human rights, determined by the Korean people.  In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK)

The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

 

8. Nigerian, South Korean make last round of WTO chief race - sources

Reuters · by Emma Farge · October 7, 2020

 

9. [In-Depth] Denuclearization of North Korea driven to a dead end...Re-emergence of 'regime transformation' solution

VOA-Korea· by Bae Sung-won · October 8, 2020

This is a google translation of an in-depth article in Korean by Voice of America.  It quotes many Korea watchers (including yours truly) - in which I advocate for a United Republic of Korea).  If VOA published an English version I will forward it.

 

10. Sanctions a powerful tool, but take time to have effect: U.S. security adviser

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 8, 2020

Sanctions are a critical part of a holistic strategy that must include strong diplomatic and military aspects, as well as cyber offense and defense, with an information and influence activities campaign tying everything together and focused on multiple target audiences.

 

11. N. Korean Diplomat Failed to Gain Asylum in Europe

english.chosun.com

It will be interesting to learn how he traveled around Europe and for how long before he went to a South Korean embassy.  What kind of assistance did he and his wife receive?

And then there is the question of why did the ROK release this information now? Here is some speculation:

“There is some perplexity why Jo's arrival here was revealed only now. Some politicians speculate that this has to do with the appointment of NIS chief Park Jie-won in July this year. A former seasoned lawmaker, Park has been more willing to share information about North Korea with the National Assembly than his predecessor Suh Hoon. Some suspect he is trying to divert attention from the government's shameful behavior over the killing of a South Korean official by North Korean soldiers at sea.

There is also speculation that the government kept Jo's arrival here secret because it still had hopes of engaging with North Korea.”

 

12. N. Korean military told to block "quarantine contaminants" at border

dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · October 8, 2020

Draconian population and resources control measures.  Yes this must help to prevent COVID infiltration.  However, the 400+ markets are suffering tremendously and this is harming the people significantly.  This reminds me of the old adage, "we had to burn the village to save it."

 

13. N. Korea increases number of checkpoints nationwide ahead of Party Foundation Day

dailynk.com· by Jeong Tae Jao · October 7, 2020

Yes, internal movement restrictions may contribute to the spread of COVID.  They also contribute to security for the regime but they impact economic activity which again is what leads to the suffering of the Korean people.  The most important safety valve for the survival of the Korean people is market activity and it is being significantly curtailed by regime policy actions.  Despite the natural disasters and COVID the suffering of the people lies on the shoulders of Kim Jong-un and his deliberate policy decisions.

 

14. North may unveil new ICBM: Unification Ministry

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Shim Kyu-Seok

The MOU should stay in its lane.  Military and intelligence analysis should be left to MND and the NIS.  This is another reason why  MOU should be absorbed by MOFA and become a planning directorate focused exclusively on planning for unification.  Or if it remains a separate Ministry it should focus only on coordinating the plans of the ROK government for unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea. (UROK).

 

15. North Korea's Big October 10 Military Parade: Here Come the ICBMs?

The National Interest · by Robert E. Kelly · October 7, 2020

What are the Vegas oddsmakers saying?

A very good description of the regime: "The next big event of this kind is on October 10 - the seventy-fifth anniversary of the foundation of North Korea's ruling Workers Party. This is ironic. The party is not one of workers but of loyalist ideologues and bureaucrats with little exposure to the party's ostensible proletarian heritage. The party also does not rule; Kim and his extended clan do. North Korean governance is more like the mafia than a one-party state of Stalinist yore. North Korea is a monarchy undergirded by a family-cronyist network at the top, and the party exists to ensure compliance, indoctrinate, and mobilize. The party does engage not policy construction or even Lenin's 'democratic centralism.' All the Marxist party iconography you will see this week - hammers and sickles redolent of communist parties of the twentieth century - are just holdovers, totally irrelevant to the regime's actual ideology, which is a bizarre mix of hypernationalism and theocracy around the Kim family as semi-divine. But no matter. Ideological consistency ceased to matter decades ago when the Kim family personality cult displaced any rigorous ideational structure."

 

16. North Korean Port Cities Hit Hard by Trade Sanctions, Coronavirus Closures

rfa.org·  Jieun Kim· October 7, 2020

The coronavirus mitigation measures by north Korea are affecting the economy more than sanctions.

 

17. Korean War: The Forgotten Heroism of U.S. Army Infantry Soldiers at Chosin Reservoir

The National Interest · by Warfare History Network · October 7, 2020

Note this conclusion:  Not until recent years have Task Force Faith's men been appreciated. An examination of Chinese records revealed the men were greatly outnumbered, and it was realized that their duel with the Chinese kept considerable pressure off the Marines, enabling them to conduct an orderly retreat. In 1999, Secretary of the Navy Richard Danzig awarded the unit a Presidential Unit Citation. In 2000, veterans of the task force were invited by the Marine Corps to attend anniversary ceremonies for the Chosin campaign. Nevertheless, the U.S. Army has yet to recognize Task Force Faith for its hopeless battle with the enemy.

 

18. Taiwan inspects port, tells shippers to follow North Korea sanctions

in.reuters.com · by Ben Blanchard

Good. Do not be like the PRC.

 

19. How N.Korea Holds Diplomats' Children Hostage

english.chosun.com

This should be no surprise,  but it is just another indicator of the evil nature of the Kim family regime.

 

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"If we should have to fight, we should be prepared to do so from the neck up instead of from the neck down."

- General Jimmy Doolittle.

 

"If you are not at the table, you are on the menu," 

- US Senator Michael Enzi.

 

"Sometimes the things that may or may not be true are the things that a man needs to believe in the most. That people are basically good. That honor, courage and virtues mean everything. That power and money, money and power mean nothing; that Good always triumphs over Evil; and I want you to remember this: That Love, true Love never dies. Doesn't matter if any of this is true or not. You see a man should believe in these things because these are the things worth believing in."

- Robert Duvall in "Second Hand Lions"

 

Categories: News