News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. South Korean military preparedness in the shadow of the pandemic

2. N. Korea says no confirmed cases of coronavirus as of early Dec.: WHO

3. USFK service members may be first in Korea vaccinated for COVID-19

4. S. Korea 'very encouraged' by signs from Biden administration: Kang

5. Commentary: North Korea braces itself for one of its toughest winters ever

6. Trump's North Korea envoy says Pyongyang 'squandered' chance for historic nuclear deal

7. U.S. sanctions companies helping North Korea export illegal coal

8. Yongsan military base back in Korean hands in 138 years

9. Dismantlement of Yongbyon complex should not be underrated: US expert

10. N. Korea is planning an event to glorify the Eighth Party Congress in January

11. The dangerous dance of dealing with a nuclear North Korea

12. South Korea accelerates deployment of unmanned systems

13. U.S. spy plane flies from South Korea into Taiwanese air space

14. 'Korea's democracy in crisis'

15. The Biden Administration and North Korea

16. Kim Yo Jong: what we know about Kim Jong Un’s sister and her role in North Korea

17. ‘Is this Seoul, or Pyongyang?’: in Moon’s Korea, defectors from North face jail for propaganda fliers

18. Left behind: North Korean coalmines fueled by South's POWs

19. Experts weigh in on how Biden should approach North Korea

20. Careless talk costs lives: a North Korean execution

21. 'Assassins': traitor or innocent? A look at the mysterious deaths in North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un's family

 

1. South Korean military preparedness in the shadow of the pandemic

Institute for Securty & Development Policy · In-bum Chun · December 2020

From our good friend, LTG (RET) Chun In-bum.

 

2. N. Korea says no confirmed cases of coronavirus as of early Dec.: WHO

Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · December 11, 2020

The WHO has no way to verify these numbers and can only report what North Korea tells it.

 

3. USFK service members may be first in Korea vaccinated for COVID-19

Korea Times · Do Je-hae · December 10, 2020

 

4.  S. Korea ‘very encouraged’ by signs from Biden administration: Kang

Yonhap News Agency · 변덕근 · December 11, 2020

I think Minister Kang might be mistaken if she believes the Biden administration will provide sanctions relief and concessions to the North and support the South's naive engagement plans. Yes, there will be good coordination and collaboration, but I am hoping the first thing the Biden administration will do with South Korea is conduct an alliance policy and strategy assessment and make sure ROK and US assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime are sufficiently aligned.

 

5. Commentary: North Korea braces itself for one of its toughest winters ever

Channel News Asia · Gabriela Bernal · December 11, 2020

Sadly, bad times are coming for the Korean people living in the North. It could be worse than the. Arduous march of the great famine of 1994-1996.

 

6. Trump’s North Korea envoy says Pyongyang ‘squandered’ chance for historic nuclear deal

Washington Times · Guy Taylor · December 10, 2020

Yes, the responsibility lies entirely with Kim Jong-Un. Squandering is an apt description.

 

7. U.S. sanctions companies helping North Korea export illegal coal

FDD · Mathew Ha · December 10, 2020

My colleague, Mathew Ha, explains the latest sanctions enforcement action.

 

8. Yongsan military base back in Korean hands in 138 years

Korea Times · Yi Whan-woo · December 11, 2020

The headline is a little misleading. Part of Yongsan Garrison has been returned - 2 sports fields. There is still a way to go for the entire installation.

 

9. Dismantlement of Yongbyon complex should not be underrated: US expert

Korea Herald · Yonhap · December 11, 2020

Yes, but... There is much more to the regime's nuclear program than Yongbyon. We can be sure that when the regime really does dismantle Yongbyon it will be because it is no longer needed, and they have other facilities that can do what is done there.

 

10. N. Korea is planning an event to glorify the Eighth Party Congress in January

Daily NK · Ha Yoon Ah · December 11, 2020

The regime's strength lies in parades, parties, events, and celebrations. To riff on Murphy's laws - no parade ready force has ever passed combat and no combat ready force has ever passed parades!

 

11. The dangerous dance of dealing with a nuclear North Korea

Hill · Joseph R. DeTrani · December 10, 2020

But is it a two-step, waltz, or polka?

 

12. South Korea accelerates deployment of unmanned systems

Defense News · Brian Kim · December 10, 2020

Some interesting innovation here.

 

13. U.S. spy plane flies from South Korea into Taiwanese air space

UPI · Elizabeth Shim · December 10, 2020

Strategic flexibility of Korea-based US assets?

 

14. 'Korea's democracy in crisis'

Korea Times · Jung Da-min · December 10, 2020

Growing public criticism of Korean domestic politics.

 

15. The Biden Administration and North Korea

Diplomat · Isozaki Atsuhito · December 10, 2020

A view from Japan.

 

16. Kim Yo Jong: what we know about Kim Jong Un’s sister and her role in North Korea

Wall Street Journal · Andrew Jeong · December 9, 2020

This was my Twitter comment to someone who said, "Let's not forget who she is:"

She is part of the evilest regime in the modern era, which is responsible for some of the most horrendous crimes against humanity and human rights abuses against the Korean people living in the North. Pure evil. Let us never forget that.

 

17. ‘Is this Seoul, or Pyongyang?’: in Moon’s Korea, defectors from North face jail for propaganda fliers

South China Morning Post · John Power · December 11, 2020

The ROK government is making a huge mistake. I hope the Moon administration will reconsider this.

 

18. Left behind: North Korean coalmines fueled by South's POWs

Barron's · Sunghee Hwang · December 10, 2020

Another sad story illustrating the evil nature of the Kim family regime.

 

19. Experts weigh in on how Biden should approach North Korea

UPI · Thomas Maresca · December 10, 2020

 

20. Careless talk costs lives: a North Korean execution

24 Matins · Sunghee Hwang · December 11, 2020

I cannot emphasize this enough: the root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia-like, crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

 

21. 'Assassins': traitor or innocent? A look at the mysterious deaths in North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un's family

MEAWW · Priyanka Sundar · December 10, 2020

I still have not seen any information on when and where this film will be shown in the US.

 

“Manners are of more importance than laws. Upon them, in a great measure, the laws depend.”

- Edmund Burke, First Letter on a Regicide Peace (1796)

"It was indicative of the U.S. Army's basic misunderstanding of what Special Forces really are, that the official Lineage of Special Forces is traced back to the First Special Service Force. The OSS was a much more legitimate ancestor of today's Green Berets but the problem with U.S. Army recognition of that fact is a syndrome that has wide implications. OSS was a hybrid with a strong political and intelligence flavor."

- LTG (USA-ret.) William P. Yarborough, Southern Pines, NC, December 1982

"An opinion can be argued with; a conviction is best shot."

- T.E. Lawrence

This piece is available in full at USIP.org.

Full Article: https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/11/ethiopias-problems-will-not-end-military-victory

By Aly Verjee

Substantial efforts are needed to reduce political tensions ahead of elections in 2021.

As violence continues over control of the northern Ethiopian region of Tigray, Ethiopia’s future remains unsettled, even if the conflict ends soon. Achieving the federal government’s security objectives in Tigray is unlikely to resolve both new and entrenched political challenges, and already delayed national elections, now expected in 2021, may prove a severe test of Ethiopia’s political order, and consequently affect broader regional stability. Reconciling the electoral process with efforts for reconciliation and national dialogue is now even more imperative.

The Conflict in Tigray

War sometimes starts like clockwork but predicting the date on which a conflict will end often leads to disappointment. Yet from the start of armed hostilities with the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed promised the conflict would be swift and decisive. On November 6, Abiy wrote that “operations by federal defense forces underway in Northern Ethiopia have clear, limited and achievable objectives.” On November 9, the prime minister said the military operation “will wrap up soon,” and the next day, that “our law enforcement operations in Tigray are proceeding as planned: operations will cease as soon as the criminal junta is disarmed, legitimate administration in the region restored, and fugitives apprehended and brought to justice—all of them rapidly coming within reach.” Claims that the conflict will be short-lived have also been echoed by senior American officials: U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia Michael Raynor told journalists on November 19 that “another aspect of this is the Ethiopian government continues to articulate a vision of the military conflict coming to an end fairly soon, a week or two from now.”

Despite limitations on independent reporting and the severing of most communications, the federal government has announced significant military advances, capturing a number of important towns and cities in Tigray, including Shire on November 17, Axum and Adwa on November 20, and Adigrat on November 21. The TPLF has made counterclaims: that it inflicted significant casualties on federal forces in Raya and to have repulsed federal forces in Mehoni and Zalambessa. For the federal government, taking control of the state capital of Tigray, and its largest city, Mekelle, is now the principal remaining tactical military objective.

However, even if Abiy’s military objectives are quickly achieved, experiences of warfare in northern Ethiopia dating back a century suggest that it is much easier to capture territory than it is to hold it. It is unclear what a successful strategy for the federal government will be if it is able to capture Tigray’s urban centers but cannot command the widespread acceptance of Tigray’s people. While the fighting of the last few weeks may have significantly degraded the TPLF’s military capacity, it is unlikely that the federal government can entirely subdue the TPLF as a political entity, which retains the support of a substantial number of Tigrayans. Further, the TPLF’s historic capacity to wage guerrilla warfare from the rural mountains of Tigray may not be definitively eroded by its losses in conventional warfare.

While some in the federal government have indicated that they would accept a refashioned TPLF led by moderates, external efforts to re-engineer the party may well be counterproductive and only risk further alienating some Tigrayan constituencies. Therefore, as focused on their immediate objectives and consequently as reluctant to seek dialogue and compromise as they may be, the parties in conflict may find that a negotiated settlement may ultimately be the only realistic choice, if not imminently, then in the months ahead. Moreover, the federal government must soon confront an even bigger problem in 2021: how to conduct peaceful and credible elections.

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Chinese arms industry ranks second behind U.S., report says

2. The use of US special operation forces in great power competition: imposing costs on Chinese gray zone operations

3.  Sorry, Gen. Lloyd Austin. A recently retired general should not be Secretary of Defense.

4. After 2020, what's next? A whiteboard

5. Irregular warfare authorities expand in defense budget

6. Counterterrorism setback: ‘Armed Overwatch’ is stalled again

7. China curtails overseas lending in face of geopolitical backlash

8. Special operations strives to use the power of artificial intelligence

9. Biden's reliance on retired military brass sets off alarm bells

10. CIA officer suffered crippling symptoms in Moscow. Was it 'Havana syndrome'?

11. The United States must marshal the “free world”

12. AI in the grey zone: Afghan lessons for great power conflict

13. U.S. missed an opportunity to 'put a lot of pressure' on China, says former senator

14. Why we need a new ICBM

15. Army to fire, suspend “significant number” of Fort Hood troops over pattern of violence at Texas base

16. These three companies will build drones to carry the Air Force's "Skyborg" AI computer brain

17. Composite Special Operations Component Command reaches full operational capability

18. The ethics of offensive cyber: reflections on the role of the National Cyber Force

19. Trump Admin to rename two bases for Space Force over military objections

20. Narrative strategy: creating the target audience

21. High-level US-Indonesia defence meeting aims to keep China at bay as Donald Trump ‘tries to solidify his legacy in Asia’

22. Between peace and war: gray zone, bright line, or dialectic?

 

1. Chinese arms industry ranks second behind U.S., report says

Wall Street Journal · Brett Forrest · December 7, 2020

What about being number 2? Always trying harder. Remember Avis (if you are of a certain age)?

 

2. The use of US special operation forces in great power competition: imposing costs on Chinese gray zone operations

Small Wars Journal · Kaley Scholl · December 7, 2020

Some excellent food for thought. Some of the best thinking on special operations comes from non-SOF (and non-uniformed military) personnel. If Kaley had been a student in my class on unconventional warfare and special operations for policymakers and strategists, she would have received an A.

 

3. Sorry, Gen. Lloyd Austin. A recently retired general should not be Secretary of Defense.

New York Times · Jim Golby · December 7, 2020

It did not take Jim Golby long to get this op-ed published. I am surprised the new administration would want to expend the necessary political capital this early to overcome the civil-military relations issue of nominating a retired 4 star.

 

4. After 2020, what's next? A whiteboard

War Room (Army War College) · War Room · December 4, 2020

An interesting survey of threats and challenges to the homeland.

 

5. Irregular warfare authorities expand in defense budget

Army Times · Kyle Rempfer · December 7, 2020

Congress has identified the requirement for irregular warfare (and such things as counter-unconventional warfare, SEC 1099 2016 NDAA) for some years. Congress will maintain the focus on IW and hopefully hold the rest of the executive branch's feet to the fire.

Remember in the 2017 NDAA, this is how Congress described irregular warfare. It in effect it was providing direction on how we should be thinking about irregular warfare in support of national interests and strategic objectives:

“Irregular Warfare is conducted in support of predetermined United States policy and military objectives conducted by, with, and through regular forces, irregular forces, groups, and individuals participating in competition between state and non-state actors short of traditional armed conflict.”

 

6. Counterterrorism setback: ‘Armed Overwatch’ is stalled again

Defense News · Elain McCusker · December 8, 2020

 

7. China curtails overseas lending in face of geopolitical backlash

Financial Times · Jonathan Wheatley · December 8, 2020

Some interesting data of which I was not aware.

 

8. Special operations strives to use the power of artificial intelligence

US Department of Defense · David Vergun · December 7, 2020

Video of the seminar at the link.

 

9. Biden’s reliance on retired military brass sets off alarm bells

Politico · Bryan Bender · December 7, 2020

There is one distinct difference between Biden and Trump. Biden has a lot more experience working with general officers. That said, I too am concerned about an over-reliance on retired military personnel. I think, in general, the best role for most retired military personnel is to provide advice and assistance and not fill key leadership roles. Of course, there are exceptions for key positions and in certain circumstances. But, in general, retired military personnel should be focused on working "through, with, and by" (thank you, Mark Boyatt, for coining the term and concept) and on conducting advisory assistance missions.

 

10. CIA officer suffered crippling symptoms in Moscow. Was it ‘Havana Syndrome’?

NBC News · Ken Dilanian, Andrea Mitchell, & Brenda Breslauer · December 7, 2020

There is "kinetic" political warfare. Our diplomats, intelligence personnel, and their families are vulnerable overseas.

 

11. The United States must marshal the “free world” by Alexander Vindman

Foreign Affairs · Alexander Vindman · December 7, 2020

Will the article be read and discussed for its ideas or will it be ignored and deleted because of the author's name?

 

12. AI in the grey zone: Afghan lessons for great power conflict

Breaking Defense · Sydney J. Freedberg Jr. · December 7, 2020

 

13. U.S. missed an opportunity to 'put a lot of pressure' on China, says former senator

CNBC · Yen Nee Lee · December 8, 2020

I concur. Our withdrawal from TPP was a major strategic mistake.

 

14. Why we need a new ICBM

FDD · Maj. Shane “Axl” Praiswater · December 7, 2020

 

15. Army to fire, suspend “significant number” of Fort Hood troops over pattern of violence at Texas base

KTLA5 · Associated Press · December 8, 2020

 

16. These three companies will build drones to carry the Air Force's "Skyborg" AI computer brain

Drive · Joseph Trevithick · December 7, 2020

 

17. Composite Special Operations Component Command reaches full operational capability

NATO · December 7, 2020

There has been an important expansion and sophistication of NATO special operations capabilities. A lot of work has been done by a lot of visionary SOF leaders in NATO over the past two decades. I think it is one of the biggest success stories of NATO but too often overlooked. I think NATO SOF has been making important but perhaps low visibility contributions in the global war on terrorism.

 

18. The ethics of offensive cyber: reflections on the role of the National Cyber Force

King's College London · Dr. Joe Devanny · December 7, 2020

A perspective from the UK about the UK's National Cyber Force (NCF).

I do have to throw the acronym confusion flag - OCO - overseas contingency operations? No. Here it is offensive cyber operations.

 

19. Trump Admin to rename two bases for Space Force over military objections

Defense One · Marcus Weisgerber · December 7, 2020

 

20. Narrative strategy: creating the target audience

Homeland Security Today · Ajit Maan · December 1, 2020

 

21. High-level US-Indonesia defence meeting aims to keep China at bay as Donald Trump ‘tries to solidify his legacy in Asia’

South China Morning Post · Amy Chew · December 8, 2020

 

22. Between Peace and War: Gray Zone, Bright Line, or Dialectic?

Real Clear Defense · Patrick Brady · December 7, 2020

Although the gray zone is used a lot, the writing about it has been reduced. The author talks about the range of writing, pro and con, from Mazarr to Elkus to Shadlow.

Here is a roll up of some of the key gray zone writings for those who are interested.

• 2010 QDR, page 73 - "gray area
• Gen Votel, March 2015, Congressional testimony
• DEPSECDEF Robert Work, April 2015, Army War College
• USSOCOM White Paper, September 2015
• Mike Mazarr, December 2015, 7 Hypotheses of the Gray Zone
• Hal Brands, February 2016, Paradoxes of the Gray Zone
• Frank Hoffman, 2016, The Contemporary Spectrum of Conflict
• Joseph L. Votel, Charles T. Cleveland, Charles T. Connett, and Will Irwin, January 2016, UW in the Gray Zone
• Autilio Echevarrio, April 2016, Operating in the Gray Zone
• Nathan Freier et al., Army War College, June 2016, Outplayed Regaining the Strategic Initiative in the Gray Zone
• Adam Elkus, December 2015, You Cannot Save the Gray Zone Concept

 

“Violence by the defenders will be used by the putschists to justify overwhelming repression which they want to use anyhow. It will be used to CLAIM that the putschists are saving the country from ‪‎terrorism or ‪civil war and are preserving "‪law and ‪‎order."

- Gene Sharp, The Anti-Coup

From a TikTok video:

"So I like we’ve been programmed to think that if we are in a war we’ll be seeing mass destruction and chaos happening all around us. But I think that we've surpassed the time where guns and missiles and violent weapons are the best form of warfare.

"There are many different types of warfare that would be a much better fit for the time that we’re living in right now, and we are currently in an age of information. So hypothetically if we were to be in World War Three it would be a war on information.

"People wouldn’t be dying left and right, because the people in power wouldn’t resort to that since we are their main source of money and power. It would be a silent war, a war on consciousness where people can be enslaved mentally.

"And a lot of people wouldn’t even realize it because they are fully engulfed in this intricately planned out illusion full of distractions and lies. Where they’re being killed slowly with biological warfare putting food and medicine in their body that’s actually just poison and dumbing them down.

"They are so caught up in distractions in this constant state of fear and worry that they don’t even realize they’re fighting a battle that they have to wake up in order to win.”

-@oliviadidat

“A man should learn to detect and watch that gleam of light which flashes across his mind from within, more than the luster of the firmament of bards and sages. Yet he dismisses without notice his thought, because it is his. In every work of genius, we recognize our own rejected thoughts; they come back to us with a certain alienated majesty

- Ralph Waldo Emerson

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Covert Chinese trade with North Korea moves into the open

2. NSA Robert C. O'Brien sounds off on coronavirus, North Korea and China

3.  US not seeing weapons proliferation from N. Korea: O'Brien

4.  Why South Korea's anti-leaflet bill is a mistake

5. How to buy time on the Korean Peninsula after Trump’s theatrics

6. Weakness from Washington and Seoul has emboldened North Korea

7. South Korea conservatives divided over apology to repair image

8. Thousands dying in secret North Korean COVID camps: report

9. Moon: S. Korea to consider joining CPTPP to expand its free trade network

10. Bill banning anti-North Korea leaflets faces backlash

11. North Korea claims Japan rearming to realize 'old ambitions'

12. South Korea to provide North Korea map service on government portal

13. New US defense act tests Korea in US-China rivalry

14. US Forces Korea under fire for 'no-mask' party

15. ‘Abraham Accords shows way forward for Korean peace’

16. Expert: ‘I don’t believe for a minute’ North Korea interfered in U.S. election

17. US Congress agrees on bill for counter-China initiative

18. Explained: North Korea’s new technology law

19. Concerns about US defense bill: 'Pacific Deterrence Initiative' may pose dilemma for Korea

20. U.S. envoy arrives in South Korea amid stalled efforts to restart talks with the North

21. New film “True North” depicts gruesome North Korean prison camps

22. ‘Seoul unlikely to reclaim wartime role from US on Moon’s tenure’

23. Two F-22 fighter jets from Guam redeployed in Kadena Air Base

24. Kim Jong-un PANIC: North Korean town raises alarm over lockdown killing food industry

25. North appears open to resuming dialogue, unification minister claims

26. N. Korea may respond to calls for antivirus cooperation after party congress: minister

 

1. Covert Chinese trade with North Korea moves into the open

Wall Street Journal · Michael R. Gordon · December 7, 2020

This is why we need to take action against those enabling sanctions evasion.

However, Ambassador Detrani makes the key point (remember the Chinese "3 No's" on north Korea - no war, no instability and regime collapse, and no nukes). China is concerned with North Korean instability.  As we should be (though that is not an excuse to evade sanctions). 

But the Chinese actions are an important indicator about what might be happening inside Pyongyang.  They have more access than South Korea does or we do. While we need to be concerned with the possibility of a provocation, especially during the vulnerable US administration transition period, the greater challenge could be contingencies surrounding internal instability. Provocations could still be a part of Kim Jong-Un's crisis action decision making when he is faced with internal threats and challenge. We have to understand and appreciate the context within which actions take place.

 

2. NSA Robert C. O'Brien sounds off on coronavirus, North Korea and China

1945 · Harry Kazianis · December 7, 2020

A fairly comprehensive interview with the National Security Advisor. Note the comments on North Korean proliferation. While I agree we have not seen proliferation of nuclear weapons, I think the proliferation of missiles and missile technology as well as a wide range of conventional weapons (as well training of rogue nations and groups) is pretty evident.

 

3. US not seeing weapons proliferation from N. Korea: O'Brien

Korea Herald · Yonhap · December 8, 2020

As I noted, I think his statement on proliferation was not strong enough. But he makes some good points on other North Korean issues and threats.

 

4. Why South Korea's anti-leaflet bill is a mistake

National Interest · Doug Bandow · December 7, 2020

I do not often have common ground with Doug Bandow, but I do on this issue.

 

5. How to buy time on the Korean Peninsula after Trump’s theatrics

Foreign Policy · John Delury · December 7, 2020

Spoiler alert. Proposal to have General Brooks lead a policy review along the lines of the Perry policy review. I am sure some of us can dust off the briefings we did in the 1998-99 for the Perry policy process.

 

6. Weakness from Washington and Seoul has emboldened North Korea

Bulwark · Mitchell Blatt · December 7, 2020

More criticism of the Moon administration than the Trump administration.

 

7. South Korea conservatives divided over apology to repair image

Bloomberg · Jeong-Ho Lee · December 7, 2020

The Korean conservatives are not going to be able to recover any time soon. I think we can make a pretty good guess that another progressive administration will succeed the Moon administration.

 

8. Thousands dying in secret North Korean COVID camps: Report

Washington Times · Guy Taylor · December 6, 2020

We need to be observant for the effects of COVID on the military as well as the general population

 

9. Moon: S. Korea to consider joining CPTPP to expand its free trade network

Yonhap News Agency · 이치동 · December 8, 2020

I had not heard that the Biden Administration might seek to have the US rejoin the CPTPP and I did not know this was possible. Withdrawing from TPP four years ago will go down in history as one of our biggest strategic mistakes in the 21st century.

 

10. Bill banning anti-North Korea leaflets faces backlash

Korea Times · Jun Ji-hye · December 7, 2020

As it must. This is a huge mistake by the ROK government. Appeasing North Korea does not work.

 

11. North Korea claims Japan rearming to realize 'old ambitions'

UPI · Elizabeth Shim · December 7, 2020

Don't mess with north Korea's Propaganda and Agitation Department. It has spin for anything.

 

12. South Korea to provide North Korea map service on government portal

UPI · Elizabeth Shim · December 7, 2020

Only in Korean language. I wonder if they will make it available in English.

 

13. New US defense act tests Korea in US-China rivalry

Korea Times · Kang Seung-woo · December 8, 2020

This is a key point form Bruce Klingner concerning contradictions within the new NDAA

 

14. US Forces Korea under fire for 'no-mask' party

Korea Times · Do Je-hae · December 8, 2020

What were these people thinking? It is not hard to think through the 2d and 3d order effects and to know their actions would be exposed and made public and impact the alliance. I guess there was not a single strategic corporal present to exercise common sense and good judgment.

 

15. ‘Abraham Accords shows way forward for Korean peace’

Gulf News · WAM · December 7, 2020

Sigh... Somehow, I think there are myriad cultural, economic, political, and security differences. But other than that, it could be a model.

 

16. Expert: ‘I don’t believe for a minute’ North Korea interfered in U.S. election

National Interest · Stephen Silver · December 4, 2020

From the “you cannot make this stuff up" category.

 

17. US Congress agrees on bill for counter-China initiative

Donga-A Ilbo · lightee@donga.com · December 8, 2020

The Koreans will worry about the Pacific Deterrence Initiative with its focus on China. But perhaps they should not. China already plays a huge role on the Korean peninsula and it certainly will in any contingency or war on the peninsula. And the development of any deterrence capabilities could have application to threats to the Korean peninsula.

And we should remember what the 1953 ROK-US Mutual Defense Treaty says:

ARTICLE II

The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of either of them, the political independence or security of either of the Parties is threatened by external armed attack. Separately and jointly, by self help and mutual aid, the Parties will maintain and develop appropriate means to deter armed attack and will take suitable measures in consultation and agreement to implement this Treaty and to further its purposes.

ARTICLE III

Each Party recognizes that an armed attack in the Pacific area on either of the Parties in territories now under their respective administrative control, or hereafter recognized by one of the Parties as lawfully brought under the administrative control of the other, would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common danger in accordance with its constitutional processes.

It seems like the Pacific Deterrence Initiative applies to Korea as well.

 

18. Explained: North Korea’s new technology law

National Interest · Stephen Silver · December 7, 2020

Obviously, it is all about control. Another indication the regime fears the Korean people living in the North more than it fears the US, which is why we should consider nurturing political defiance and political resistance.

 

19. Concerns about US defense bill: ‘Pacific Deterrence Initiative’ may pose dilemma for Korea

Korea Times · Editorial · December 7, 2020

 

20. U.S. envoy arrives in South Korea amid stalled efforts to restart talks with the North

Reuters · Josh Smith · December 8, 2020

This is why the Biden administration would be wise to ask Mr. Biegun to remain. High praise from the South Koreans

 

21. New film “True North” depicts gruesome North Korean prison camps

Daily Wire · Gabe Kaminsky · December 7, 2020

Animated. Interesting concept.

 

22. ‘Seoul unlikely to reclaim wartime role from US on Moon’s tenure’

Korea Herald · Choi Si-young · December 7, 2020

Look, this is not rocket science. Of course, the conditions-based approach must remain. The failure to meet the conditions puts the security of the ROK at risk. The real issue is how aggressive will the ROKG be in ensuring the conditions are met. That is where the commitment is required. This is not something we can "finger drill" or hand wave" just because a political leader wants it. Yes, of course, politics takes precedence, but leaders need to stand up and challenge the politicians when the security of a nation and the alliance is at stake. You either meet the conditions or you do not. You either protect your country and the alliance or you do not. The US is not standing in the way of OPCON transition and, in fact, it wants it to occur. It can send a powerful message to our alliance partners around the world to demonstrate the trust and confidence in the military leadership of our ally. But the ROK government has to earn that trust and confidence by properly resourcing and supporting their military leaders to meet the conditions for OPCON transition.

That said, it is also not rocket science in meeting the conditions. It takes sound military concepts, training, and acquisition of key equipment and more training—and then even more training and then continuous training.

 

23. Two F-22 fighter jets from Guam redeployed in Kadena Air Base

Dong-A Ilbo · Sang-Ho Yun · December 8, 2020

 

24. Kim Jong-un PANIC: North Korean town raises alarm over lockdown killing food industry

Express · Dylan Donnelly · December 8, 2020

The regime is deliberately acting to reduce market activity. Too much market activity has become a threat to the regime and the regime is using COVID as an excuse to implement oppressive measures and restrictions to control the population. Is blowback coming?

 

25. North appears open to resuming dialogue, unification minister claims

Korea Joong Ang Daily · Shim Kyu-Seok · December 8, 2020

More wishful thinking from the Minister of Unification.  Of course, he and the National Intelligence Service have access to back channel communications and I do not, so it could very well be that he knows more than we are seeing. But based on the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime, I remain skeptical.

 

26. N. Korea may respond to calls for antivirus cooperation after party congress: minister

Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · December 8, 2020

The Minister of Unification seems to be trying to create a narrative that the regime is pro-engagement. I wonder if his target audience is the incoming Biden Administration.

 

“Violence by the defenders will be used by the putschists to justify overwhelming repression which they want to use anyhow. It will be used to CLAIM that the putschists are saving the country from ‪‎terrorism or ‪civil war and are preserving "‪law and ‪‎order."

- Gene Sharp, The Anti-Coup

From a TikTok video:

"So I like we’ve been programmed to think that if we are in a war we’ll be seeing mass destruction and chaos happening all around us. But I think that we've surpassed the time where guns and missiles and violent weapons are the best form of warfare.

"There are many different types of warfare that would be a much better fit for the time that we’re living in right now, and we are currently in an age of information. So hypothetically if we were to be in World War Three it would be a war on information.

"People wouldn’t be dying left and right, because the people in power wouldn’t resort to that since we are their main source of money and power. It would be a silent war, a war on consciousness where people can be enslaved mentally.

"And a lot of people wouldn’t even realize it because they are fully engulfed in this intricately planned out illusion full of distractions and lies. Where they’re being killed slowly with biological warfare putting food and medicine in their body that’s actually just poison and dumbing them down.

"They are so caught up in distractions in this constant state of fear and worry that they don’t even realize they’re fighting a battle that they have to wake up in order to win.”

-@oliviadidat

“A man should learn to detect and watch that gleam of light which flashes across his mind from within, more than the luster of the firmament of bards and sages. Yet he dismisses without notice his thought, because it is his. In every work of genius we recognize our own rejected thoughts; they come back to us with a certain alienated majesty

- Ralph Waldo Emerson

This piece published in full at USIP.org.

Full Article: https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/12/mozambiques-crisis-requires-new-playbook-fight-extremism

By Leanne Erdberg Steadman; Bethany L. McGann; Colin Thomas-Jensen

For too long, overmilitarized responses have failed to staunch the spread of terrorism—the focus should be on addressing what drives conflict.

Over the past three years, a local Islamist insurgency in the northern Mozambican province of Cabo Delgado has grown in strength and viciousness, developing ties with international terrorist groups and threatening one of the world’s largest natural gas projects. The insurgency is turning Cabo Delgado into a killing field. While many Americans are increasingly wary of overseas counterterrorism commitments, there is increasing consensus among experts that the conventional, militarized counterterrorism responses that have dominated in the post 9-11 era are failing, particularly in Africa. The situation in Mozambique is an opportunity to reorient such efforts through addressing the underlying drivers of conflict and extremism.

Locals call the insurgent group “al-Shabaab”—in part because the group reminds them of the al-Qaida-linked Somali terrorist organization of the same name. This year violence against civilians doubled from 2019 levels. In November 2020, al-Shabaab militants burned the farming community of Muatide to the ground, herded 50 of its residents onto a soccer field and beheaded them. Routine al-Shabaab atrocities and human rights abuses by Mozambican security forces deployed to the region have forced more than 350,000 people to flee their homes.

As ISIS touts al-Shabaab’s exploits and backs the insurgents with increasing levels of operational and tactical support (including formal incorporation into the Islamic State in Central Africa Province in April 2019), counterterrorism analysts and Africa watchers should be deeply concerned about the increasing efficacy and sustainability of ISIS’s franchising efforts across the continent. Without a thoughtfully calibrated international intervention, terrorism may be entrenched in a new theater with equally long-term impacts on human security and regional stability.

Mexican Drug Violence: Hybrid Warfare, Predatory Capitalism and the Logic of Cruelty

Teun Voeten

Small Wars Journal is pleased to announce the release of Mexican Drug Violence: Hybrid Warfare, Predatory Capitalism and the Logic of Cruelty.  This new Small Wars Journal–El Centro book by Dr. Teun A. Voeten examines the violence in Mexico’s drug war.  Voeten, an award winning photojournalist specializing in war and conflicts and anthropologist, received his PhD from Leiden University in the Netherlands.  Mexican Drug Violence contains original research and analysis, a foreword: “Mexican Drug Violence” by Robert J. Bunker, and an afterword: “Crime Wars, Criminal Insurgency, and State Transformation” by John P. Sullivan.

Voeten argues it is a new type of war called hybrid warfare: multidimensional, elusive and unpredictable, fought at different levels, with different intensities with multiple goals.  He interprets drug cartels as ultra-capitalist predatory corporations thriving in a neoliberal, globalized economy.  They use similar branding and marketing strategies as legitimate business. He also looks at the anthropological, individual level and explains how people can become killers. Voeten compares Mexican sicarios, West African child soldiers and Western jihadis and sees the same logic of cruelty that facilitates perpetrating ‘inhumane’ acts that are in fact very human.  Together, the text provides a template for placing Mexico’s drug war in global context. SWJ

Source: Teun Voeten, Mexican Drug Violence: Hybrid Warfare, Predatory Capitalism and the Logic of Cruelty, A Small Wars Journal–El Centro Book. Bloomington: XLibris, 2020.

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Exclusive: U.S. preparing new sanctions on Chinese officials over Hong Kong crackdown - sources

2. China’s economic rise is unstoppable - the US should explore a partnership instead

3. U.S. could consider using Huawei equipment for overseas troops

4. British aircraft carrier strike group will soon deploy to waters near Japan, report says

5.  The case for a quadripolar world

6.  The American companies enabling China's Uyghur genocide

7. Why liberal internationalism is still indispensable  - and fixable

8. Cybersecurity - the rest of the iceberg

9. NDAA underscores GOP differences with Trump on defense

10. Iran says scientist killed by satellite-controlled machine gun

11. China and the U.S. are facing off in the third world

12. Japan to put new Aegis radars on warships after cancelling ground stations: Asahi

13. 'Stronger together': Taiwan foreign minister urges new alliance against China

14. Tale of two belt and Road Initiative port projects in Malaysia shows limits of Chinese money

15.  Inside Operation Gideon, a coup gone very wrong (Venezuela)

16. Chinese phone maker Gionee found guilty of implanting malware in more than 20 million devices

17. China's foreign minister calls for less U.S. 'interference' in domestic affairs

18. China’s huge naval forces are making U.S. naval logistics vulnerable

19. Beijing may have built bases in the South China Sea, but that doesn't mean it can defend them, report claims

20. India accuses China of helping rebel groups on Myanmar border

21. Here's Congress' detailed plan to get rid of confederate base names and monuments

22. An assessment of realism in American foreign policy

23. As the U.S. rushes to the exits two decades after invading Afghanistan, the Taliban surges

 

1. Exclusive: U.S. preparing new sanctions on Chinese officials over Hong Kong crackdown - sources

Reuters · Humeyra Pamuk & Matt Spetalnick · December 6, 2020

 

2. China’s economic rise is unstoppable - the US should explore a partnership instead

South China Morning Post · Anthony Rowley · December 7, 2020

I will leave it to the economic experts to assess this article and analysis.

 

3. U.S. could consider using Huawei equipment for overseas troops

Dong-A Ilbo · Jae-Dong Yu · December 7, 2020

An assessment of the NDAA from the Korean press. This is a misreading of the NDAA. I do not think this means we should consider using Huawei, but we should consider allies using Huawei in our deployment and basing decisions. I think this will have implications for OPCON transition in Korea.

 

4. British aircraft carrier strike group will soon deploy to waters near Japan, report says

Stars & Stripes · Caitlin Doornbos · December 7, 2020

 

5. The case for a quadripolar world

Project Syndicate · Daron Acemoglu · December 3, 2020

 

6. The American companies enabling China's Uyghur genocide

American Conservative · Paul Brian · December 4, 2020

Wow. Quite a list of enablers.

 

7. Why liberal internationalism is still indispensable  - and fixable

Foreign Policy · Michael Hirsh · December 5, 2020

The terminology itself has baggage and triggers those of certain political persuasions.

 

8. Cybersecurity – the rest of the iceberg

Hill · James Stavridis · December 5, 2020

 

9. NDAA underscores GOP differences with Trump on defense

Hill · Rebecca Kheel · December 6, 2020

The question is will POTUS veto the NDAA?

 

10. Iran says scientist killed by satellite-controlled machine gun

Rappler · Agence France-Presse · December 7, 2020

So if the "machine gun" was satellite controlled, does this mean it is a Space Force mission? (with some tongue in cheek)

 

11. China and the U.S. are facing off in the third world

Bloomberg · Hal Brands · December 7, 2020

Indirect, proxy, gray zone, competition.

 

12. Japan to put new Aegis radars on warships after cancelling ground stations: Asahi

Investing.com · Reuters · December 6, 2020

Build more Aegis.

 

13. 'Stronger together': Taiwan foreign minister urges new alliance against China

Guardian · Helen Davidson · December 7, 2020

Just as a reminder, one aspect of George Kennan's political warfare is the importance of alliances:

George F. Kennan defined political warfare as “the logical application of Clausewitz’s doctrine in time of peace.”  While stopping short of the direct kinetic confrontation between two countries’ armed forces, “political warfare is the employment of all the means at a nation's command… to achieve its national objectives.”  A country embracing Political Warfare conducts “both overt and covert” operations in the absence of declared war or overt force-on-force hostilities. Efforts “range from such overt actions as political alliances, economic measures…, and ‘white’ propaganda to such covert operations as clandestine support of ‘friendly’ foreign elements, ‘black’ psychological warfare and even encouragement of underground resistance in hostile states.” - George Kennan, "Policy Planning Memorandum." May 4, 1948

 

14. Tale of two Belt and Road Initiative port projects in Malaysia shows limits of Chinese money

South China Morning Post · Francis E. Hutchinson & Tham Siew Yean · December 7, 2020

 

15.Inside Operation Gideon, a coup gone very wrong

Rolling Stone · Kevin T. Dugan · December 6, 2020

A lot to this entire article.

 

16. Chinese phone maker Gionee found guilty of implanting malware in more than 20 million devices

PanDaily · Kelsey Cheng · December 7, 2020

Are these companies sacrificial lambs to show that they act on their own and not at the direction of the CCP? Is China trying to show it is not conducting cyber operations using Chinese tech companies?

Bottom line: is this an influence operation?

 

17. China's foreign minister calls for less U.S. 'interference' in domestic affairs

CNBC · Evelyn Cheng · December 7, 2020

Translation: leave us alone while we conduct human rights abuses against our own people.

 

18. China’s huge naval forces are making U.S. naval logistics vulnerable

National Interest · David Axe · December 7, 2020

Of course.

 

19. Beijing may have built bases in the South China Sea, but that doesn't mean it can defend them, report claims

CNN · James Griffiths · December 7, 2020

Why would anyone want to take these islands? Other than standoff long-range attacks, what kind of military operations does anyone envision against these artificial islands?

 

20. India accuses China of helping rebel groups on Myanmar border

Hindustan Times · Bloomberg · December 7, 2020

Irregular warfare in support of political warfare.

Again, with absolutely no apologies to Leon Trotsky: America may not be interested in irregular, unconventional, and political warfare, but IW, UW, and PW are being practiced around the world by those who are interested in them - namely the revisionist, rogue, and revolutionary powers and violent extremist organizations.

 

21. Here's Congress' detailed plan to get rid of confederate base names and monuments

Military.com · Hope Hodge Seck · December 4, 2020

 

22. An assessment of realism in American foreign policy

Divergent Options · Brandon Patterson · December 7, 2020

Nothing is black and white in international relations. And yes, it is all about statesmanship.

 

23. As the U.S. rushes to the exits two decades after invading Afghanistan, the Taliban surges

Los Angeles Times · David S. Cloud · December 7, 2020

 

“Yesterday, December 7, 1941 - a date which will live in infamy  - the United States of America was suddenly and deliberately attacked by naval and air forces of the Empire of Japan.”

- Franklin D. Roosevelt on the morning after the Pearl Harbor attack

“I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.”

- attributed to Japanese Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto

"We should never overlook the might and resiliency of the human spirit. Even after years more challenging than 2020, we humans have emerged as stronger, more capable versions of ourselves. We are the ones who decide our fate. We must never allow ourselves to sink into hopelessness and despair."

- Reginald Dieudonne

“You must allow everyone the right to exist in accordance with the character he has, whatever it turns out to be: and all you should strive to do is to make use of this character in such a way as its kind of nature permits, rather than to hope for any alteration in it, or to condemn it offhand for what it is. This is the true sense of the maxim—Live and let live…. To become indignant at [people’s] conduct is as foolish as to be angry with a stone because it rolls into your path. And with many people the wisest thing you can do, is to resolve to make use of those whom you cannot alter:

-Arthur Schopenhuaer

"Grand Strategy is the art of looking beyond the battle and calculating ahead.  It requires that you focus on your ultimate goal and plot to reach it. Let others get caught up in the twists and turns of the battle, relishing their little victories. Grand strategy will bring you the ultimate reward: the last laugh."

-Robert Greene

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Biegun to visit Seoul for talks on alliance, N. Korea

2. CFC commander discusses OPCON transfer with Korean officials

3. N. Korea publicly executes 2 people for quarantine violations

4. Korea to go into lockdown for rest of year

5. De facto one party rule in South Korea, the Democratic Party of Korea rushes through bills harmful to human rights, free speech, national security, economy

6. Is North Korea facing an economic and health care crisis?

7. Former cybersecurity chief says Russia, China, Iran and North Korea are trying to steal coronavirus vaccine IP

8. North Korean trade hit more by COVID-19 than sanctions

9. A test of Japan–South Korea relations

10. The seven surpluses

11. Jeffrey Prescott, Joe Biden aide noted for experience and calm, may become point person on China

12. Washington's top North Korea envoy to visit Seoul this week

13. 17 USFK-affiliated people test positive for new coronavirus

14. U.S. defense bill on Huawei puts Seoul in a pickle

 

1. Biegun to visit Seoul for talks on alliance, N. Korea

Yonhap News Agency · 김승연 · December 7, 2020

My thoughts on this week's trip:

• Expect this to be North Korean Special Representee and DEPSECSTATE Steve Biegun's final trip to Seoul.
• The purpose is likely to be twofold: the Koreans will likely honor him for the great work he has done for the ROK/US alliance and he will discuss continuity of US North Korean policy and the likelihood of North Korean provocation during the vulnerable transition period as well as the likely ROK and US responses to such provocation (these are likely to be confidential discussions and possible alliance courses of action will not be revealed for obvious reasons).
• There are a number of key alliance issues to be discussed:

1. The current SMA stalemate (equitable cost sharing for US forces)
2. The ROK desire for streamlined sanctions waivers for humanitarian relief in North Korea and other sanctions relief proposals by the ROK  to facilitate North-South engagement
3. The crises in North Korea: COVID mitigation measures and effects of a potential outbreak, the collapsed economy, the humanitarian crisis facing the Korean people in the North due to the natural disasters this past summer.
4. Ensuring the continuity of MOFA-DOS strategy working group established by Mr. Biegun and Ambassador Lee Do-Hoon in 2018. He will want to counter the criticism of this working group based on misunderstanding of its focus and efforts and political agendas from the progressives in the Moon administration.
5. In addition to the potential for North Korea provocations, they will exchange assessments on the North Korean way ahead on denuclearization talks and how the regime may react to a new US administration.
6. He will likely be asked to discuss troop withdrawals following the CJCS General Milley's comments about re-evaluating all US overseas presence and in particular the permanent stationed US troops overseas with families.
7. He may also address other issues such as OPCON transition and access to training areas for US forces as well as the Quad/Quad Plus and the alignment of the US strategy of a free and open INDOPACIFC and the ROK's new southern strategy.
8. He will be pressed to provide his assessment of any likely policy shift by the incoming administration. I expect he will not provide such an assessment but instead will recommend continuity, stating the importance of our linchpin alliance and the need to sustain sanctions and pressure on the regime because any premature sanctions relief will be considered a victory for the regime's blackmail diplomacy. He will recommend continuing contact with the North to conduct substantive working level negotiations on denuclearization.

 

2. CFC commander discusses OPCON transfer with Korean officials

Donga-Ilbo · Kyu-Jin Shin · December 7, 2020

Kudos to the headline editor. This is one of the few articles that calls General Abrams by his most important title, the Commander of the ROK/US CFC. This is because the ROK/US CFC is the command charged by both countries with deterrence and defense and it is equally "co-owed" by both countries (and overseen by the Military Committee).

There are some interesting comments in this article about General Abrams. 

The OPCON transition issue and US forces access to training areas are two of the most important alliance issues that must be worked, along with the SMA stalemate of course. But the commander (whether a US commander or a ROK commander of CFC) has to have his primary focus on the readiness of the command so that he can accomplish the tasks given to him by both governments.

 

3. N. Korea publicly executes 2 people for quarantine violations

Korea Times · Yi Whan-woo · December 7, 2020

A smuggler and a currency exchange broker. Yes, they were in violation of quarantine measures, but the regime is exploiting COVID to crackdown on anti-regime activities: uncontrolled market activity (supported by smuggling) and the use of foreign currency.

 

4. Korea to go into lockdown for rest of year

Chosun Ilbo · Yang Ji-ho & Yang Seung-joo · December 7, 2020

Wow. Drastic measures here.

 

5. De facto one party rule in South Korea, the Democratic Party of Korea rushes through bills harmful to human rights, free speech, national security, economy

East Asia Research Center · Tara O · December 5, 2020

Analysis from Dr. Tara O on South Korean legislation. I do like the opposition's name for the bill banning leaflets and information going to the North: “Kim Yo-jong’s Decree Law”

 

6. Is North Korea facing an economic and health care crisis?

National Interest · Daniel R. DePetris · December 6, 2020

Well, yes, this is a BFO (blinding flash of the obvious).

But let's please stop blaming sanctions for the suffering of the Korean people living in the North. The people are suffering because of Kim Jong-Un's deliberate policy decisions to prioritize nuclear weapons, the military, and the survival of the regime over the health and welfare of the Korean people living in the North.

I would also bet if we lifted sanctions altogether it would not result in any reduction in suffering of the people because the regime will not prioritize their welfare. 

But Kim can get sanctions relief. All he must do is comply with the requirements of the sanctions. And for those who advocate for relief without compliance, what malign behavior by the regime do you wish to condone?  The nuclear and missile programs? Global illicit activities? Weapons proliferation? Cyber-attacks? Overseas slave labor? Human Rights abuses and crimes against humanity of the Korean people living in the North? Just tell me which behavior you wish to condone.

And do not fall for the lie that sanctions relief will lead to negotiations and denuclearization. Sanction relief will lead to the regime doubling down on blackmail diplomacy, political warfare, and the long con.

 

7. Former cybersecurity chief says Russia, China, Iran and North Korea are trying to steal coronavirus vaccine IP

CNBC · Amanda Macias · December 6, 2020

The four musketeers of the cyber world (or the four horsemen of the cyber apocalypse).

 

8. North Korean trade hit more by COVID-19 than sanctions

Japan Times · Jiyeun Lee · December 5, 2020

More specifically it is not COVID, but the draconian population and resources control measures the regime is implementing to not only prevent COVID but also to further oppress the Korean people living in the North and crack down on all anti-regime activities.

 

9. A test of Japan–South Korea relations

Diplomat · Shin Kawashima · December 6, 2020

 

10. The seven surpluses

Korea Joong Ang Daily · Shin Kak-soo · December 6, 2020

A very interesting critique.

 

11. Jeffrey Prescott, Joe Biden aide noted for experience and calm, may become point person on China

South China Morning Post · Mark Magnier · December 7, 2020

I am unfamiliar with Mr. Prescott.

 

12. Washington's top North Korea envoy to visit Seoul this week

UPI · Thomas Maresca · December 7, 2020

 

13. 17 USFK-affiliated people test positive for new coronavirus

Yonhap News Agency · 오석민 · December 7, 2020

 

14. U.S. defense bill on Huawei puts Seoul in a pickle

Korea Joong Ang Daily · Shim Kyu-Seok · December 7, 2020

I have not read all the NDAA, but I missed this section. A pickle is right. This could have a significant impact on OPCON transition and the stationing of US troops in Korea. In my last meeting at MND in June 2019, we were specifically told there is no Huawei equipment in the ROK MND C2 architecture. But if the military is dependent on civilian communications architecture for its backbone, it is likely there is connectivity at least indirectly with Huawei equipment.

This is another issue that will likely be added to the DEPSECSTATE's trip to Seoul this week.

 

 

“Yesterday, December 7, 1941 - a date which will live in infamy  - the United States of America was suddenly and deliberately attacked by naval and air forces of the Empire of Japan.”

- Franklin D. Roosevelt on the morning after the Pearl Harbor attack

“I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.”

- attributed to Japanese Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto

"We should never overlook the might and resiliency of the human spirit. Even after years more challenging than 2020, we humans have emerged as stronger, more capable versions of ourselves. We are the ones who decide our fate. We must never allow ourselves to sink into hopelessness and despair."

- Reginald Dieudonne

“You must allow everyone the right to exist in accordance with the character he has, whatever it turns out to be: and all you should strive to do is to make use of this character in such a way as its kind of nature permits, rather than to hope for any alteration in it, or to condemn it offhand for what it is. This is the true sense of the maxim—Live and let live…. To become indignant at [people’s] conduct is as foolish as to be angry with a stone because it rolls into your path. And with many people the wisest thing you can do, is to resolve to make use of those whom you cannot alter:

-Arthur Schopenhuaer

"Grand Strategy is the art of looking beyond the battle and calculating ahead.  It requires that you focus on your ultimate goal and plot to reach it. Let others get caught up in the twists and turns of the battle, relishing their little victories. Grand strategy will bring you the ultimate reward: the last laugh."

-Robert Greene

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. China Peddles Falsehoods to Obscure Origin of Covid Pandemic

2. NDAA: Conference Cuts New Army Tech, Pluses Up Old

3. 39 Islamic State-Linked Abu Sayyaf Militants Surrender in the Philippines

4. The U.S. Has Passed the Hospital Breaking Point

5. Defense bill offers Biden's team a new framework to counter China

6. Great Power Competition Is Too Narrow a Frame

7. China hits back at US spy chief's 'greatest threat to freedom' claim

8. Report Points to Microwave 'Attack' as Likely Source of Mystery Illnesses That Hit Diplomats and Spies

9. We're not Wolf Warriors, we're only standing up for China, says senior official

10. State Department cancels China-paid junkets for congressional staff

11. Opinion | China has lost its confidence

12. CJCS Milley: Character of War in Midst of Fundamental Change

13. Why China is now looking to have its say on international law

14. Defense bill revives Stars and Stripes newspaper after near dissolution

15. Military use of social media accounts widens

16.  Going to War with China? Ignore Corbett. Dust Off Mahan!

17. China military watch

18. 'Artificial Skin' May One Day Make Troops Invisible, Even to Heat Sensors

19. The WWII spy roots of the phrase 'secret squirrel'

 

1. China Peddles Falsehoods to Obscure Origin of Covid Pandemic

The New York Times · by Javier C. Hernández · December 6, 2020

Remember in January 2020 China' s own propaganda outlet called this the Wuhan virus and Wuhan pneumonia.

"Wuhan pneumonia a wake-up call for basic Chinese research" - People's Daily Online. http://en.people.cn/n3/2020/0125/c90000-9651785.html. unfortunately they have taken down the article at this link because it is counter to the current propaganda narrative.  But here is excerpt from the article :

Wuhan pneumonia a wake-up call for basic Chinese research - People's Daily Online

en.people.cn · by F_300824

Wuhan pneumonia a wake-up call for basic Chinese research

(Global Times) 16:04, January 25, 2020

Science magazine published an article entitled "China's Missed Chance" in July 2003, arguing China lost an opportunity to show "growing scientific prowess" due to the lack of swift medical measures to bring SARS under control. Some 17 years later, does China have enough scientific strength to cope with the Wuhan pneumonia confidently and efficiently?

The WHO noted on January 12 that "China shared the genetic sequence of the novel coronavirus." One day later, the organization published a report on diagnostic detection of the virus, delivered by a group of German researchers, who later reportedly "have developed the first diagnostic test" for the Wuhan virus.

Almost at the same time, China also developed a diagnostic testing device. Its speed can be argued as much faster compared to the SARS outbreak in 2003. However, China, where both SARS and the Wuhan virus first emerged, failed to be the first in relevant diagnostic research and development (R&D) in both cases.

 

2. NDAA: Conference Cuts New Army Tech, Pluses Up Old

breakingdefense.com · by Sydney J. Freedberg Jr.

There is still no better helicopter than the Chinook. :-)

 

3. 39 Islamic State-Linked Abu Sayyaf Militants Surrender in the Philippines

benarnews.org

Some good news.  The Philippines has a long history of this.  I recall in March 2002 the 17 ASg members surrendering and being transported directly to Manila to have justice administrators.  Their only demand was to face justice in Manila and not on Basilan and in Mindanao.

 

4. The U.S. Has Passed the Hospital Breaking Point

The Atlantic · by Robinson Meyer, Alexis C. Madrigal · December 4, 2020

I also read on the news that COVID has become the number one cause of death in the US.

 

5. Defense bill offers Biden's team a new framework to counter China

The Washington Post – by Karoun Demirjian - December 6, 2020

Interesting analysis.

Three key points.

The annual defense bill, which lawmakers are expected to vote on starting Tuesday, establishes a program to strengthen the United States' posture and alliances in the Indo-Pacific region and funding for additional attack submarines that senior Pentagon officials have said are vital for countering China's powerful maritime forces.

The legislation also creates a new director of cybersecurity position to coordinate such activities government-wide and establishes a plan to make the Defense Department less dependent on Chinese manufacturing, from microelectronics to face masks.

The expectation is that the deterrence initiative will see an expansion in funding in years ahead: In the conference report accompanying the compromise legislation, lawmakers stated they envision funding for the program more than doubling in fiscal 2022.

 

6. Great Power Competition Is Too Narrow a Frame

defenseone.com · December 6, 2020

I guess this is from the Defense One editorial board since there is no byline.  I am not opposed to their conclusion.  I think it is a fight for legitimacy between authoritarian and democracies (and all the differences between the two, to include rule by law versus rule of law).

While the great power competition framework may get some important things right, the past four years of the Trump administration have demonstrated that it is fundamentally flawed as an organizing principle of U.S. foreign policy. The Biden administration should turn to a new organizing principle - global competition between democracy and authoritarianism - and carry a simple message to the rest of the world: either you are an ally defending the liberal international order against authoritarian influence, or you are not.

My thoughts:

Key point:  We should stop the proliferation of terminology (which I think causes intellectual paralysis) and adopt Irregular Warfare as the military contribution to Political Warfare. Political warfare is how we should describe the competition space between peace and war and is the defining element in Great Power Competition.  While state on state warfare is the most dangerous threat or course of action of GCP and why we must invest in deterrence and defense, Political War is the most likely threat or courses of action.  

And I would add with absolutely no apologies to Leon Trotsky: "America may not be interested in irregular, unconventional, and political warfare but IW/UW/PW are being practiced around the world by those who are interested in them - namely the revisionist, rogue, and revolutionary powers and violent extremist organizations."

* The dominant threat or problem we face is one political warfare supported by hybrid military approaches - and these approaches are best described as irregular warfare - a "violent struggle among state and non-state actors for legitimacy and influence over the relevant populations."  It is said that IW consists of UW, foreign internal defense (FID), CT, counterinsurgency, and stability operations (SO).

* So we have to be able to conduct our own form of Irregular warfare which of course includes the 5 mission sets named above but is best described by Congress in the 2017 NDAA: Irregular Warfare is conducted "in support of predetermined United States policy and military objectives conducted by, with, and through regular forces, irregular forces, groups, and individuals participating in competition between state and non-state actors short of traditional armed conflict."

It is time for us to shift from the Clausewitzian "War is politics or policy by other means” and embrace our adversaries' views: "Politics is war by other means" or as Mao said, "Politics is war without bloodshed, while war is politics with bloodshed."

 

7. China hits back at US spy chief's 'greatest threat to freedom' claim

The Guardian · by Helen Davidson · December 4, 2020

The CCP doth protest too much.

 

8. Report Points to Microwave 'Attack' as Likely Source of Mystery Illnesses That Hit Diplomats and Spies

The New York Times · by Edward Wong · December 5, 2020

Who says there is no "warfare" in political warfare?  Every diplomat and intelligence officer is in harm's way around the world with these and other kinds of friends.

 

9. We're not Wolf Warriors, we're only standing up for China, says senior official

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112733/were-not-wolf-warriors-were-only-standing-china-says-senior - by Cissy Zhou – 5 December 2020

Fight back? Who started with the wolf diplomacy?

 

10. State Department cancels China-paid junkets for congressional staff

washingtontimes.com · by Bill Gertz

I did not think US government officials could receive funding from foreign governments.  I guess I was wrong.

 

11. Opinion | China has lost its confidence

The Washington Post – by David Von Drehle - December 4, 2020

Interesting point (among others in the essay): "Yes, confidence. A confident government doesn't lock up a million or more ethnic Muslims for months, even years, of brainwashing, as China continues to do in Xinjiang. A confident Beijing would no sooner throttle the intellectual vibrancy of Hong Kong than Canada would crack down on Montreal, or the United States would stifle San Jose. Repression is - always and everywhere - the mark of a government afraid of its own people. In the modern world, where human capital is the indispensable resource, repression is, therefore, fatal to development."

Conclusion: "This question leads to a third principle: China policy is now too important to be a plaything for Washington's reckless partisans. Just as warring Democrats and Republicans agreed after World War II to unite behind a Cold War strategy, so too must today's leaders seek a consistent approach to China. Beijing has taken a menacing wrong turn. We need steady hands in response."

 

12. CJCS Milley: Character of War in Midst of Fundamental Change 

news.usni.org · by John Grady and Sam LaGrone · December 4, 2020

Perhaps.  But my thought is not new: It is time for us to shift from the Clausewitzian "War is politics or policy by other means” and embrace our adversaries' views: "Politics is war by other means" or as Mao said, "Politics is war without bloodshed, while war is politics with bloodshed."

Of course, he is talking about robotics, unmanned weapons, AI, and technology. and the like what will never change is the political aspect of war.  We forget that at our peril.

 

13. Why China is now looking to have its say on international law

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112706/why-china-now-looking-have-its-say-international-law - by Laura Zhou – 5 December 2020

A simple concept.  Rule by law and Chinese Lawfare. (Legal Warfare ("lawfare") can involve enacting domestic law as the basis for making claims in international law and employing "bogus" maps to justify China's actions.)

 

14. Defense bill revives Stars and Stripes newspaper after near dissolution

The Hill · by Ellen Mitchell · December 3, 2020

Some good news.  every information capability should be protected and resourced.  I know people will say Stars and Stripes is not an information tool or is only for the troops, but foreign audiences read it and pay attention to it. I recall at Panmunjom/JSA we used to provide copies of Stars and Stripes every day to the north Korean duty officer.  I do not know if we still do but we did back in the 1990's (And I recall a north Korean spy posing as a Philippine born professor in South Korea arrested for faxing articles from Stars and Stripes to his north Korean handler). 

 

15. Military use of social media accounts widens

janes.com – by Tony Roper - December 4, 2020

Excerpt of a Jane's article.  I do not have a subscription for the full article, but I think this excerpt is interesting and worth sharing.

 

16.  Going to War with China? Ignore Corbett. Dust Off Mahan!

usni.org – by Matthew Suarez - December 1, 2020

Hmm... I always liked Corbett because I thought his writing emphasized the importance of joint operations.

But this is an interesting read and one which policy makers and strategists should ponder.

 

17. China military watch

aspistrategist.org.au · by Malcolm Davis and Charlie Lyons Jones · December 4, 2020

A look at the future of Chinese land combat.

 

18. 'Artificial Skin' May One Day Make Troops Invisible, Even to Heat Sensors

defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker

 

19.  The WWII spy roots of the phrase 'secret squirrel'

sandboxx.us · by Theo Dyssean · December 4, 2020

Some interesting history for a Sunday read. I never knew the origin of this.

 

 

"The end of all political associations is the preservation of the natural and imprescriptible rights of man; and these rights are liberty, property, security, and resistance of oppression."

- Thomas Paine

 

"Resistance to oppression is second nature."

- Seneca the Younger

 

"Resistance and change often begin in art, and very often in our art - the art of words."

- Ursula K. Le Guin