Small Wars Journal

12/21/2020 News & Commentary – National Security

Mon, 12/21/2020 - 10:22am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. The Cyber Threat Is Real and Growing

2. Microsoft says SECOND hacking team installed backdoor in SolarWinds

3. No More Generals Atop the Pentagon

4. China takes a page from the US Cold War playbook

5.  Commentary: US paid dearly for absence in Pacific trade deal

6.  How We're Building a 21st-Century Space Force

7.  Assessing the Role of Armed Forces in Activities Below the Threshold of War

8. A(nother) New Afghanistan Strategy, Based on an Old Approach

9. Congress barrels toward veto clash with Trump

10. The Military Learned to Stop the Bleeding

11. The Work Required to Have an Opinion

12. The Martini's Contribution to Civilization

13. Former Navy SEAL William McRaven says having acting officials leading the US military 'does not serve the American public well'

14. Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny dupes spy into revealing how he was poisoned

15. Rebecca Grant: Cyberattacks against US will intensify - Biden must bolster ability to defend and strike back

16. White House secures 'three martini lunch' tax deduction in draft of coronavirus relief package

17. America the Coercive: On H. R. McMaster's "Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World"

18. The Legend of Korra - An Insurgency Masterclass

19. Public relations or propaganda, war gave it life

20. China Used Stolen Data to Expose CIA Operatives in Africa and Europe

21. The Army wants water restrictions near the Wharf. Residents and D.C. leaders call it an overreach.

22. Russian hack puts a spotlight on Sasse's cyber warfare planning push

 

1. The Cyber Threat Is Real and Growing

WSJ · by Mike Rogers

Excerpts:

“The incoming administration must appoint a national cyber director, a provision included in the recently passed National Defense Authorization Act, and an issue on which I testified this summer. We can't afford to have dozens of offices and agencies running their own cybersecurity policies and budgets. The White House must assert itself.

The government can't do it alone. Cooperation with the private sector on cyber defenses is urgent and necessary. This goes beyond contracts and purchasing agreements, and must include recognition that the nation-private and public sectors - are under attack. We need to craft a truly whole-of-nation and whole-of-government approach to collective cyber defense.

The SolarWinds damage is done, but it isn't too late to strengthen our cyber defenses, work to deter foreign actors, and prepare for future breaches. And there will be more.”

 

2. Microsoft says SECOND hacking team installed backdoor in SolarWinds

Daily Mail · by Keith Griffith · December 20, 2020

Excerpts:

'This is powerful tradecraft, and needs to be understood to defend important networks,' Rob Joyce, a senior NSA cybersecurity adviser, said on Twitter.

It is unknown how or when SolarWinds was first compromised. According to researchers at Microsoft and other firms that have investigated the hack, intruders first began tampering with SolarWinds' code as early as October 2019, a few months before it was in a position to launch an attack.

 

3. No More Generals Atop the Pentagon

WSJ · by Mike Gallagher· December 21, 2020

Conclusion: "I admire Gen. Austin for his lifetime of honorable service. But that service doesn't make him the best fit for defense secretary during a moment of profound geopolitical change and challenges. When Congress decides whether to make an exception to the law for Gen. Austin, I will vote no."

 

4. China takes a page from the US Cold War playbook

eastasiaforum.org · by William Overholt · December 21, 2020

Excerpts:

That said, the BRI is riding and accelerating the integration of Eurasia and the emergence of Africa. Its globally networked strategy is more sophisticated than Bretton Woods' mostly bilateral vision.

China is playing the right game. Why is the United States failing to play the right game when its Cold War strategy delivered the most successful geopolitical outcome in history?

Part of the problem is that scholars have failed to articulate the post-war geoeconomic game. They preoccupy themselves with pre-World War II military conflicts without acknowledging that post-World War II leadership depends on a rebalancing toward economic priorities and a non-zero-sum mentality. But above all, peacetime resources are allocated by congressional lobbying - not by strategy.

 

5. Commentary: US paid dearly for absence in Pacific trade deal

channelnewsasia.com· by Cai Daolu and Carlos Kuriyama

Our major strategic error of the past four years.

 

6. How We're Building a 21st-Century Space Force

defenseone.com · by Gen. John W. Raymond

Excerpts:

“In the year we have spent standing up the nation's newest service, space has grown more crowded, more contested, and more vital to our economy and national security. Anyone who has used a traffic app on a smartphone or a virtual platform for a meeting has seen the ways in which space-based networks govern our daily lives, from commerce to communication.

We do not know which future visionaries will emerge to follow in the footsteps of leaders like Schriever. But by staying lean and focused, the Space Force can address the many challenges that lie ahead, outcompeting adversaries, deterring conflict, and keeping Americans safe.

How We're Building a 21st-Century Space Force

Only by staying lean, agile, and tightly focused on our mission can we succeed in protecting the United States.”

 

7. Assessing the Role of Armed Forces in Activities Below the Threshold of War

divergentoptions.org · by Damimola Olawuyi and Paul Jemitola · December 21, 2020

Conclusion: 

“As the dawn of a new era in international relations begins, leaders will need to rely on every available lever of power to achieve favourable outcomes as they compete for a favourable place on the global stage. While many events will occur outside the realm of armed conflict, it will not diminish the role the armed forces plays to ensure successful outcomes. Thus as governments take critical decisions on the means of expressing their nation's will and safeguarding its interests, they can embrace neither neglecting their militaries nor limit their contribution to simply to the waging of its wars.”

 

8.  A(nother) New Afghanistan Strategy, Based on an Old Approach

realcleardefense.com · by Anthony Cowden

Four questions answered with ends, ways, and means:

Is pride an appropriate national interest?

To what degree should past efforts be relevant in crafting a new strategy?

What does history have to teach us about fighting in Afghanistan?

Is the U.S. seriously considering a negotiated settlement with the Taliban?

 

 

9. Congress barrels toward veto clash with Trump

The Hill · by Jordain Carney · December 19, 2020

Will POTUS veto the NDAA and can and will Congress override it?

 

10. The Military Learned to Stop the Bleeding

WSJ · by Frank K. Butler and John B. Holcomb· December 20, 2020

How many times do we need to say, "Stop the bleeding." The military has contributed to many advances that benefit society at large.  But society must pay attention. 20 years ago, our medics were issuing tourniquets that could be self-administered with one hand.   I still have mine (fortunately I never had to use it on myself).

From Tactical Combat Casualty Care Handbook, Version 5 

 

11. The Work Required to Have an Opinion

Some food for thought in these divisive times.

One of the hardest classes I ever took included the requirement to write a paper every week on an ethics topic in international relations.  We had to write it in two forms, one from each side of the debate: e.g., Resolved... etc.   It was a challenge to write both sides of the debate and in essence counter your own arguments.  It was a very useful exercise.

The Professor was Dr. William Douglas.  You can read him (and his poetry) here

 

12. The Martini's Contribution to Civilization

WSJ · by Amanda Foreman· December 19, 2020

Something on the lighter side.

The cocktail was invented in the U.S., but it soon became a worldwide symbol of sophistication.

 

13. Former Navy SEAL William McRaven says having acting officials leading the US military 'does not serve the American public well'

Business Insider · by David Choi, Ryan Pickrell· December 21, 2020

 

14. Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny dupes spy into revealing how he was poisoned

CNN · by Tim Lister, Clarissa Ward and Sebastian Shukla

This is a fascinating story with some great reporting.

 

15. Rebecca Grant: Cyberattacks against US will intensify - Biden must bolster ability to defend and strike back

foxnews.com · by Rebecca Grant | Fox News

The title is a no brainer. We must do better.

 

16. White House secures 'three martini lunch' tax deduction in draft of coronavirus relief package

The Washington Post· by Jeff Stein · December 21, 2020

Sigh....I wonder who can go back to work and get anything done after a 3 martini lunch?  I think the next thing we need to pass into law is a mandatory siesta after lunch.  When I came in the Army we still had the 2 beer lunch. But a 3 martini lunch would make me non-mission capable for the afternoon.

 

17. America the Coercive: On H. R. McMaster's "Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World"

Los Angeles Review of Books · by Gregory A. Daddis · December 20, 2020

A critical review of HR's book.  I do not see it the same way as Professor Daddis.

 

18.  The Legend of Korra - An Insurgency Masterclass

angrystaffofficer.com · by Matthew Ader · December 14, 2020

An unusual think piece in the Angry Staff Officer blog. My daughter loved the Avatar cartoons as a young girl. I may have to go back and watch these again.

 

19. Public relations or propaganda, war gave it life

asiatimes.com · by John Maxwell Hamilton · December 20, 2020

Interesting historical analysis. Conclusion:

Cynicism puts the nation at risk. Lack of faith in government delegitimizes leaders and makes it easier for demagogues to gain a following through malicious use of communication tools. External adversaries leverage public distrust of government by planting misinformation that disrupts elections and casts suspicions on those elected to govern.

The press, a bulwark against propaganda, also has been breached. Journalists were never entirely successful at keeping officials at arm's length. News media relied on the Bush administration's assurances that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction.

Still, independent journalism became the default position after 1918 - until recently. Technological advances have strengthened propagandists and disrupted fact-based reporting. The low cost of technology allows partisans to confuse and distort on a mass scale. With declining revenue from advertisers, who are less dependent on newspapers and magazines, the news media cannot afford to patrol government as they did.

"The question is no longer one of establishing democratic institutions," Chief Justice Charles Evans Hughes said after the war, "but of preserving them."

 

20.  China Used Stolen Data to Expose CIA Operatives in Africa and Europe

Foreign Policy · by Zach Dorfman · December 21, 2020

As I have heard over and over again from cyber experts, "he who controls and can exploit the data, wins."

This is of course a troubling report.

 

21. The Army wants water restrictions near the Wharf. Residents and D.C. leaders call it an overreach.

The Washington Post· by Luz Lazo · December 21, 2020

Over zealous force protection or do we have intelligence of a credible threat against Fort McNair?

 

22. Russian hack puts a spotlight on Sasse's cyber warfare planning push

Omaha.com · by Aaron Sanderford World-Herald Staff Writer

 

---------------

 

"Citizens by birth or choice, of a common country, that country has a right to concentrate your affections. The name of 'American' which belongs to you, in your national capacity, must always exalt the just pride of Patriotism, more than any appellation derived from local discriminations." 

- George Washington

 

"He that would make his own liberty secure must guard even his enemy from oppression." 

- Thomas Paine

"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become more corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters."

 

and 


"This Constitution ... can only end in despotism...when the people shall become so corrupted as to need despotic government, being incapable of any other."

- Benjamin Franklin

12/21/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

Mon, 12/21/2020 - 9:57am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Unification ministry op-ed: Why South Korea had to stop leaflet launches

2. S. Korean contractor at Camp Humphreys tests positive for COVID-19

3. Representations Made To the UK Foreign Secretary about the Republic of Korea's "Gag Law"

4. New virus cases under 1,000 on fewer tests, further rise looming amid bigger wave of pandemic

5. Presidential secretary for peace planning tapped as new chief nuclear envoy

6. Ex-U.S. Defense Secretary Mattis to receive Korea-U.S. alliance award

7. North Korean leadership orders public health officials to focus all efforts on vaccine acquisition

8. Wonsan Textile Factory officials dismissed for smuggling goods across border

9. 21 USFK-affiliated people test positive for new coronavirus

10. On the amended provisions of the Development of Inter-Korean Relations Act

11. 'NK leveraging inter-Korean resort to pull concession'

12. Harris raises concerns over Korea's new leaflet ban

13. No Vaccinations Expected for Months (South Korea)

14. S. Korea's belated response to vaccines

15. A missile spotter's guide to North Korea (and beyond)

16. NK completes building musical instrument factory ordered by late former leader

 

1. Unification ministry op-ed: Why South Korea had to stop leaflet launches

NK News Suh Ho December 20, 2020

Very interesting: the Vice Minister of Unification pens an OpEd for NK News. This is obviously for a US audience which I suppose is why NK News did not put this behind its paywall.

But frankly this OpEd is an embarrassment to South Korea and the Moon Administration.  I do not know where to start to begin criticizing it so I will just leave it to the reader.

It truly saddens me that the ROK government would enact such a law based on the rationale in this OpEd.

He admonishes us to base our discussion on objective facts.  He has not presented any facts; only weak explanations that place the Moon administration agenda ahead of the human rights of Korea s in both the north and the South and ahead of the values and principles of a free people.  And one only need to look at the timing of the law and the history of north Korean blackmail diplomacy and north-South relations to know this entire debacle is in response to Kim Yo-jong's threats combined with the naive belief that this will somehow appease the Kim family regime and allow the Moon administration to pursue its engagement strategy in the same way Charlie Brown tries to kick Lucy's football.

 

2. S. Korean contractor at Camp Humphreys tests positive for COVID-19

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · December 21, 2020

 

3.  Representations Made To the UK Foreign Secretary about the Republic of Korea's "Gag Law"

David Dalton· December 21, 2020

 

4. New virus cases under 1,000 on fewer tests, further rise looming amid bigger wave of pandemic

en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · December 21, 2020

They are continuing with "the fewer tests means fewer cases" course of action.

 

5. Presidential secretary for peace planning tapped as new chief nuclear envoy

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · December 21, 2020

The ROK government is making a translation in anticipation of the new Biden administration.

 

6. Ex-U.S. Defense Secretary Mattis to receive Korea-U.S. alliance award

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · December 21, 2020

The buried lede is this is the first time the award has been bestowed since the passing of General Paik Sun-yup.

Some might also interpret this as a subtle rebuke of President Trump's policies by honoring general Mattis for preventing escalation of fire and fury and pledging not to withdraw US forces from Korea,

Excerpts:

"He played a pivotal role in managing the security situation on the Korean Peninsula in 2017, when tensions ran high, which helped set conditions for the Korea peace process," the ministry said in a statement.

 

7. North Korean leadership orders public health officials to focus all efforts on vaccine acquisition

dailynk.com· by Jang Seul Gi · December 21, 2020

Desperation? Expect more cyber attacks as well as well as attempts to procure the vaccine on the blackmarket.  This could be a double edged sword.  If I were an international blackmarket businessman I would think the regime is ripe for a scam.  I would try to sell them millions of dollars worth of a fake vaccine.

 

8. Wonsan Textile Factory officials dismissed for smuggling goods across border

dailynk.com· by Jong So Yong · December 21, 2020

I hate to keep beating this horse but this is another illustration of why the Korean people in the north are suffering: Due to Kim Jong-un's deliberate policy decisions which prioritizes his survival and support to the military over the welfare of the people.

 

9. 21 USFK-affiliated people test positive for new coronavirus

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · December 21, 2020

 

10. On the amended provisions of the Development of Inter-Korean Relations Act

I received this message from the ROK Ministry of Unification last evening as I am sure other Korea watchers did who are on the MOU's mailing list.  The file with the fact sheet could not be opened.  If I receive a good file I will cut and paste the text and send in a message.

I am not satisfied by the explanation below for the Kim Yo-jong law banning though there is some slight clarification to the law. The stated rationale is about protection of Korean citizens. The 2014 incident included the north Koreans firing an anti-aircraft weapon at balloons with the South Koreans returning fire. There were no injuries.

The ROKG would be better able to protect South Korean citizens through enhanced defensive capabilities and not by stopping balloon launches which will embolden the regime to double down on blackmail diplomacy.

Ministry of Unification <unikorea.eng@unikorea.go.kr>

Sun 12/20/2020 11:29 PM

To:

  •  David Maxwell

Dear all

Please refer to the attached file, the fact sheets of the Amended Provision of the Development of Inter Korean Relation Act related to the leaflets scattering.

1. This amendment does not intend to disrespect the human rights of North Koreans, nor to restrict the North Korean human rights movement, but to protect the lives and safety of residents in the area along the Military Demarcation Line of Korea, while avoiding accidental armed conflict that actually happened in 2014.

2. This amendment does not apply to the acts of spreading leaflets and other items in the countries other than the Republic of Korea, and therefor does not restrict or criminalize human rights organization's activities in third countries.

3. This amendment limits the restriction to the freedom of expression (not contents but methods)  to the minimum extent necessary to protect the lives nad safety of more than a million South Korean residents near the Military Demarcation Line in a manner that conforms to the ROK Constitution and International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.

The ROK government will continue to work with international community and civil society to promote peace on the Korean Peninsula.

Thank you

 

11. 'NK leveraging inter-Korean resort to pull concession'

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · December 21, 2020

Here are my entire comments submitted to the journalist:

There are two important issues surrounding these recent statements.

First,  we should recognize this provides us with important insights into the nature of the Kim family regime and Kim Jong-un's. The regime intends to commit its scarce resources to developing Kimgangsan in order to attract tourism to generate revenue for the Kim family regime.  As we saw on October 10th all such revenue goes to the regime and support of he the military's nuclear and missile programs and advanced military capabilities.  Kim Jong-un will develop Kumgnagsan at the expense of the welfare of the Korean people living in the north.  The Korean people are suffering because of Kim Jong-un's deliberate policy decisions.

Second, the timing of this rhetoric is interesting.  The regime may be attempting to build on its recent successful blackmail diplomacy in which it subverted the ROK political system resulting in the passage of the "Kim Yo-jong law" banning information flow into north Korea.  Perhaps the regime believes it can use new threats of exploiting Kumgangsan to extort more concessions from the Moon administration.  If this is an accurate assessment, we should understand what happens when you try to appease the Kim family regime - it will double down on blackmail diplomacy and political warfare.

 

12. Harris raises concerns over Korea's new leaflet ban

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Jung Hyo-Sik, Lee Yu-Jung and Esther Chung

I believe the Ambassador is correct to raise concerns.  This is not only a domestic Korean issue.  I do not think the MOU's clarification message I forwarded alleviates these concerns.

 

13. No Vaccinations Expected for Months

english.chosun.com· December 21, 2020

 

14. S. Korea's belated response to vaccines

donga.com· December 21, 2020

 

15. A missile spotter's guide to North Korea (and beyond)

lowyinstitute.org · by Victor Abramowicz

I will leave this to the missile experts. I will say that north Korea has a history of surprising us and countering the assessments of analysts.

 

16. NK completes building musical instrument factory ordered by late former leader

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · December 21, 2020

Priorities.  Regime priorities.

 

-------------------

 

"Citizens by birth or choice, of a common country, that country has a right to concentrate your affections. The name of 'American' which belongs to you, in your national capacity, must always exalt the just pride of Patriotism, more than any appellation derived from local discriminations." 

- George Washington

 

"He that would make his own liberty secure must guard even his enemy from oppression." 

- Thomas Paine

"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become more corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters."

 

and


"This Constitution ... can only end in despotism...when the people shall become so corrupted as to need despotic government, being incapable of any other."

12/20/2020 News & Commentary – National Security

Sun, 12/20/2020 - 11:20am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Warp Speed official takes blame for overcount of Covid shot allocations

2. How to Respond to Russia’s SolarWinds Cyberattack

3. Explainer-U.S. government hack: espionage or act of war?

4. Opinion | The World Is Full of Challenges. Here’s How Biden Can Meet Them. by Robert M. Gates

5. Social Media in 2020: A Year of Misinformation and Disinformation

6. William Barr: ‘One Standard of Justice’

7. Barr Says C.I.A. ‘Stayed in Its Lane’ in Examining Russian Election Interference

8. Trump Officials Deliver Plan to Split Up Cyber Command, NSA

9. China’s Rebel Historians: The World Turned Upside Down: A History of the Chinese Cultural Revolution

10. Le Carré's death touched me. It feels like the grownups are leaving the room

11. Trump Contradicts Pompeo Over Russia’s Role in Hack

12. Why is Saudi Arabia recruiting former Navy SEAL contractors?

13. THE QANON CONSPIRACY: Destroying Families, Dividing Communities, Undermining Democracy

14. SS United States: The mighty ship that broke all the records -- then was left to rust

15. How Ancient Rome Defeated Donald Trump

16. John Rawls: can liberalism's great philosopher come to the west's rescue again?

17. Chinese Drones Are Spying on Americans

 

1. Warp Speed official takes blame for overcount of Covid shot allocations

Politico· by David Lim

An example of leadership.  General Perna shows how it is done.  Some political leaders could learn from him.

As I watched him I felt great respect for him but I also had a sinking feeling because I know where the real failure was.

If I was a staff officer and planner on his staff my tail would be between my legs because I would know it is my mistake and a staff mistake and that we let down the boss.  He accepts full responsibility in public when in fact this was staff officer failure.  The second part of the statement is true - the staff is learning from it - we will get better and we will not make the same mistake again.  He covered for us and we owe him better work in the future.

As an aside if you watched the response by the media to his statements his acceptance of responsibility diffused further criticism and forced everyone to focus on substantive issues.  He showed us how it is done. Many people should learn from him.

Excerpts:

“It was a planning error, and I am responsible,” Army Gen. Gustave Perna said. “We’re learning from it. We’re trying to get better.”

...

“The mistake I made is not understanding with exactness — again, my responsibility —on all the steps that have to occur to make sure the vaccine is releasable,” Perna said.


2. How to Respond to Russia’s SolarWinds Cyberattack

Bloomberg · by Hal Brands · December 18, 2020

From one of America's most important experts on strategy - especially grand strategy.  I think the subtitle is accurate.  Putin has taken cyberwar to a new level.

 

3. Explainer-U.S. government hack: espionage or act of war?

uk.reuters.com · by Jan Wolfe, Brendan Pierson, Raphael Satter and Michelle Nichols

 

4. Opinion | The World Is Full of Challenges. Here’s How Biden Can Meet Them. by Robert M. Gates

The New York Times · by Robert Gates · December 18, 2020

Opinion | The World Is Full of Challenges. Here’s How Biden Can Meet Them.

 

5. Social Media in 2020: A Year of Misinformation and Disinformation

WSJ · by Kathryn Kranhold· December 11, 2020

I missed this last week.

 

6.  William Barr: ‘One Standard of Justice’

WSJ · by Kimberley A. Strassel· December 18, 2020

 

7. Barr Says C.I.A. ‘Stayed in Its Lane’ in Examining Russian Election Interference

The New York Times · by Adam Goldman · December 18, 2020

 

8. Trump Officials Deliver Plan to Split Up Cyber Command, NSA

defenseone.com · by Katie Bo Williams

I did not realize the CJCS has to sign off on this.

Excerpts:

“Supporters of the split argue that keeping the two organizations under the dual-hat arrangement creates inefficiencies.”

“The missions of NSA and Cyber Command will continue to compete for priority and advocacy under the dual hat,” Andrew Schoka, an active duty Army cyber operations officer assigned to Cyber Command, wrote in War on the Rocks in 2019.

Should Milley and Miller make the necessary certifications to Congress, the practical implications of the move will be neither immediate nor irreversible.

“If anything, I’d imagine a direction of a breakup but with an implementation period of six to twelve months,” the administration official said. “Leaves space to reverse it but puts a marker down for CYBERCOM to get off the NSA teat.”

 

9. China’s Rebel Historians

The Atlantic · by Barbara Demick · December 18, 2020

Another book for the "to read" pile.

Conclusion:

“Yang, now 81, is still living in Beijing. He was so nervous about the repercussions of The World Turned Upside Down that he initially tried to delay publication of the English edition, according to friends, out of worry that his grandson—who was applying to university—might bear the brunt of reprisals. But the repressive political climate in China today makes honest assessments of Communist Party history ever more urgent, Guo told me. “Ever since the time of Zuo Qiuming [a historian from the sixth and fifth centuries B.C.] and Confucius, truthfully recorded history has been considered a mirror against which the present is viewed and a stern warning against rulers’ abuse of power.” He pointed as well to a more contemporary, Western source, George Orwell’s 1984, and its mantra, “Who controls the past controls the future: Who controls the present controls the past.”

Unlike the imperial dynasties, the Communist Party can’t claim a mandate from heaven. “If it admits error,” Guo said, “it loses legitimacy.”

 

10. Le Carré's death touched me. It feels like the grownups are leaving the room

The Guardian · by Jonathan Freedland · December 18, 2020

He will be missed.

 

11. Trump Contradicts Pompeo Over Russia’s Role in Hack

The New York Times · by Steve Kenny, Eric Schmitt and Julian Barnes · December 19, 2020

I don't think I would want to be a fly on the wall for this conversation.  For what it is worth, I think the SECSTATE is right.

 

12. Why is Saudi Arabia recruiting former Navy SEAL contractors?

sandboxx.us · by Frumentarius · December 15, 2020

Author's conclusion: "Now, I am not trying to spin up some conspiracy theory, or to imply that the Saudis are really looking for contractors to do something altogether different than preparing Saudis for BUD/S. All I am saying is, they are either being completely naive, and falling prey to the mystique of needing a “Tier One operator” to teach their guys basic stuff and are thus willing to shell out a ton of money for it; or, they are cloaking this contract request in seemingly innocuous language, and have other plans in mind for the contractors. Honestly, either scenario is completely plausible."

 

13. THE QANON CONSPIRACY: Destroying Families, Dividing Communities, Undermining Democracy

Everything you wanted to know about the conspiracy cult in 24 pages. Download he report here.

 

14. SS United States: The mighty ship that broke all the records -- then was left to rust

CNN · by Christopher Ross, CNN

Seom fascinating history for a weekend read.  It is amazing what Americans have always been capable of building.

 

15. How Ancient Rome Defeated Donald Trump

Bloomberg · by Tobin Harshaw · December 19, 2020

I want to read Ricks' new book because I am a fan of Roman and Greek philosophy and their impact on our Founding Fathers . But apologies for the clickbait title.

 

16.  John Rawls: can liberalism's great philosopher come to the west's rescue again?

The Guardian · by Julian Coman · December 20, 2020

And some philosophy reading for a Sunday.  We should all strive to be philosophers.  We should ponder this essay or, better yet, reread A Theory of Justice.

Excerpt: "Elizabeth Bruenig, suggested to colleagues: “What we’re having is really a philosophical conversation and it concerns the unfinished business of liberalism. I think all human beings are born philosophers, that is, that we all have an innate desire to understand what our world means and what we owe to one another and how to live good lives.” 

 

17. Chinese Drones Are Spying on Americans

news.yahoo.com · by Rebeccah Heinrichs · December 20, 2020

 

----------------------

 

“Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.”

 - Arthur Schopenhauer

 

"Liberal constitutional democracy is supposed to ensure that each citizen is free and equal and protected by basic rights and liberties."

- John Rawls

 

"I shall constantly bear in Mind, that as the Sword was the last Resort for the preservation of our Liberties, so it ought to be the first thing laid aside, when those Liberties are firmly established.'

- George Washington

12/20/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

Sun, 12/20/2020 - 10:19am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Daily infections hit fresh high, gov't faces uphill battle (South Korea)

2.  N. Korea making all-out efforts against coronavirus before key party convention

3. Border Residents Wary as North Korea Sends Security College Students to Monitor Them

4. North Korean leader tightens control amid faltering economy

5. Mysterious North Korea site may be building nuclear bomb parts, report says

6. N.K. premier calls for building Mt. Kumgang tourist area 'our own way'

7. North Korea raises issue of Mount Geumgang complex again

8. Can North Korea’s Kim Jong-un Make Peace with Joe Biden?

9. For Biden, the answer to North Korea is now impossible to ignore

10. More Koreans dying of COVID-19 without ever receiving care

11. S. Korea's Kimchi Exports Hit All-time High amid COVID-19 Pandemic

12. North Korea vows to redevelop mountain tour site despite pandemic

 

1. Daily infections hit fresh high, gov't faces uphill battle (South Korea)

en.yna.co.kr · by 최경애 · December 20, 2020

 

2. N. Korea making all-out efforts against coronavirus before key party convention

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · December 20, 2020

It is not about taking care of the Korean people living in the north.  It is about making the regime look good for the 8th Party Congress.

 

3. Border Residents Wary as North Korea Sends Security College Students to Monitor Them

rfa.org · by Sewon Kim

I wonder if they get college credit for this.  I suppose this is an "internship" or practicum for future State Security officers.  Control of the population is the paramount concern of the regime. Not their welfare, but their control.

Excerpts:

“Sending in college students is nothing new—Pyongyang previously dispatched students from the Political University of the Ministry of Social Security, which trains future secret police, as a ‘strike team’ to crack down on underground or black-market businesses, according to the source.

“But now they are sending the students as a sort of threat, since they are from the notorious security agent training base at the security college. But the students are also perhaps kind of a means to ease the angry residents, because authorities are aware of the resentment people have because of the difficulties making a living due to this year’s border closures,” said the source.

 

4. North Korean leader tightens control amid faltering economy

The Korea Times · by Kang Seung-woo· December 20, 2020

Chain of command versus chain of control.  Control permeates every aspect of north Korean society.  The regime had lost too much control of the economy in the last two decades.  COVID 19 has been an opportunity to regain that control.  The sad irony is that the "lack" of control or the nascent free market economy that has been growing since the Arduous march of 1994-1996. The Kim family regime may regain control of the economy, but it will certainly lead to greater suffering among the Korean people in the north and this could lead to instability among the population.  Unfortunately, as long as the suppression mechanisms continue to function, and the military remains coherent and in support of the regime the result will only be more suffering among the people.  But if there is a widespread COVID outbreak among the military that destabilizes the force, it could lead to catastrophic consequences. 

 

5. Mysterious North Korea site may be building nuclear bomb parts, report says

SCMP · December 19, 2020

 

6. N.K. premier calls for building Mt. Kumgang tourist area 'our own way'

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · December 20, 2020

This will certainly not be for Korean tourists from the north.

But again this is just another illustration of Kim Jong-un's priorities.  It is about making money for the regime.  And the resources expended to develop tourist facilities could be prioritized to help the Korean people.

 

7. North Korea raises issue of Mount Geumgang complex again

The Korea Times · December 20, 2020

Priorities.

 

8. Can North Korea’s Kim Jong-un Make Peace with Joe Biden?

The Hill · by Christine Ahn· December 18, 2020

We should keep in mind that if KimJong-un wants peace with President-elect Biden it is only because it supports his political warfare strategy to split the ROK/US alliance to allow him to dominate the entire Korean peninsula. And the peace he wants to make with the US includes him keeping his nuclear and missile capabilities. 

 

9. For Biden, the answer to North Korea is now impossible to ignore

The Hill · by Christine Ahn· December 18, 2020

Ms, Ahn should be required to register as a foreign agent as she is a passionate advocate for north Korea positions.  Given her relationship with her north Korean handlers from the United Front Department should also be investigated for security risks. And those that invite her to the Hill and other government officials should be very wary of engaging with her because their security clearance.

We all want a peaceful resolution of the Korea question.  Unfortunately, if we have peace on the terms dictated by Kim Jong-un which are supported by Ms Ahn we will put 50 million Koreans living in the South in great peril and ironically we will more likely see the conflict she (and all of us) seeks to avoid. 

 

10. More Koreans dying of COVID-19 without ever receiving care

koreaherald.com · by Kim Arin · December 20, 2020

Hospital capacity is the pacing item in South Korea, the US and around the world.

Still, government won’t consider tougher social distancing restrictions

 

11. S. Korea's Kimchi Exports Hit All-time High amid COVID-19 Pandemic

world.kbs.co.kr · December 20, 2020

Some good news I suppose.

 

12. North Korea vows to redevelop mountain tour site despite pandemic

Stars and Stripes· by Hyung Jin-Kim · December 20, 2020

 

------------------

 

Quotes of the day:

 

“Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.”

 - Arthur Schopenhauer

 

"Liberal constitutional democracy is supposed to ensure that each citizen is free and equal and protected by basic rights and liberties."

- John Rawls

 

"I shall constantly bear in Mind, that as the Sword was the last Resort for the preservation of our Liberties, so it ought to be the first thing laid aside, when those Liberties are firmly established.'

- George Washington

12/19/2020 News & Commentary – National Security

Sat, 12/19/2020 - 1:15pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Pompeo Says Russia Was Behind Cyberattack on U.S.

2. Statement on Transition Activities by Acting Secretary of Defense Miller

3.  Space Force Troops Get a Name: 'Guardians'

4. The Marines' Missile Imperative

5. Joe Biden will face an inbox of complex foreign policy problems from the start

6.  Acting Secretary Accepts Inclusion Board's 15 Recommendations

7.  Beijing Tests Joe Biden

8. International Criminal Court Will Not Take Further The Case Of The Uyghurs

9. U.S. Cyber Experts Scramble to Assess the Scope of the 'Hack of a Decade'

10. Hacked networks will need to be burned 'down to the ground'

11. Suspected Russian hack: Was it an epic cyber attack or spy operation?

12. What we know - and still don't - about the worst-ever US government cyber attack

13. Trump to CIA: Say Goodbye to Your War on Terror

14. Federal prosecutors accuse Zoom executive of working with Chinese government to surveil users and suppress video calls

15. Leaked Documents Show How China's Army of Paid Internet Trolls Helped Censor the Coronavirus

16. Army leaders push back on Mike Flynn's call for the military to 're-run' the 2020 election

17. China-Based Executive at U.S. Telecommunications Company Charged with Disrupting Video Meetings Commemorating Tiananmen Square Massacre

18. China accused of planning to exploit undersea cable networks to spy on other countries, report says

19. Pentagon Memo Maps Out Plan to Expand Diversity in the Force

20. Mission impossible: The origins of Delta Force

 

1. Pompeo Says Russia Was Behind Cyberattack on U.S.

The New York Times · by David E. Sanger, Nicole Perloth, Eric Schmitt, and Julian Barnes · December 19, 2020

What are our options? (I ask that rhetorically of course, some we may learn of, others might not be for public release.)

 

2. Statement on Transition Activities by Acting Secretary of Defense Miller

defense.gov

Despite the press reports I am told this "pause" was mutually agreed upon.

 

3. Space Force Troops Get a Name: 'Guardians'

defenseone.com · by Marcus Weisgerber

It is going to be a mouthful:  "soldiers, sailors, airmen, Marines, coast guardsman, and guardians."   I wonder if the SF (Space Force) will demand guardians be capitalized to be equal to the Marines. I wonder also if the Coast Guard signed off on this since guardians kind of encourages on its name.

On a separate note, I have been reading on social media calls for the incoming administration to disband the SF when it takes office?  Could the SF be undone? Should it be undone?

 

4. The Marines' Missile Imperative

WSJ · by The Editorial Board

I think for ground forces (Army and Marines) the two most important capabilities for the future of high intensity conflict will be missile forces (long range precision fires) and air defense capabilities (from missile defense to defense against air breathers to defense against drones).

 

5. Joe Biden will face an inbox of complex foreign policy problems from the start

The Guardian · by Peter Beaumont · December 19, 2020

But doesn't every administration?

 

6. Acting Secretary Accepts Inclusion Board's 15 Recommendations

defense.gov · by Jim Garamone

 

7. Beijing Tests Joe Biden

WSJ · by The Editorial Board

The transition period is a vulnerable time.    But is the "test" valid?  Should the president-elect react since he is not yet president?  Does not reacting remove options? Or does reacting now then limit future options? Does not acting provide Beijing with the correct "lesson?"

 

8. International Criminal Court Will Not Take Further The Case Of The Uyghurs

Forbes · by Ewelina U. Ochab · December 15, 2020

One more example that undermines the legitimacy of the ICC (or the influence of China over international organizations, or both).

 

9. U.S. Cyber Experts Scramble to Assess the Scope of the 'Hack of a Decade'

TIME · by Kimberly Dozier

Excerpts:

“Ironically, it was a failure to update software that enabled what's still seen as the worst cyberattack on the U.S. government, when Chinese hackers stole the personnel files of 4.2 million government employees, as reported by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management in 2015, including the real names of intelligence officers serving in covert positions around the world.”

“Responding to news of the hack, the incoming Biden Administration released a statement Thursday vowing to make dealing with "what appears to be a massive cybersecurity breach affecting potentially thousands of victims .... a top priority from the moment we take office."

“Alperovitch, who is now the chairman of the Silverado Policy Accelerator, a Washington, D.C.-based cyber think tank, warned against U.S. officials or lawmakers overreacting to what he calls run-of-the-mill spying, as opposed to an act of war. "This is a case where we should say good for them, shame on us for letting them," he says. "We need to use this as a wake-up call to reorganize our government to better deal with this massive intelligence failure and massive failure of cybersecurity."

 

10. Hacked networks will need to be burned 'down to the ground'

AP · by Frank Bajak· December 18, 2020

I guess this will be "Operation Scorched Networks."  Or this is the scorched earth defense to cyber attacks.  This of course would probably be a desired outcome for the Russians.  They would benefit from the cyber fratricide from our scorched earth defense that would destroy our networks (have to burn a network to save it) after they have completed as much cyber espionage they were able to accomplish.

 

11. Suspected Russian hack: Was it an epic cyber attack or spy operation?

NBC News · by Ken Dilanian · December 18, 2020

A new level of "Spy vs. Spy" in the cyber domain.

 

12. What we know - and still don't - about the worst-ever US government cyber attack

The Guardian · by Kari Paul · December 19, 2020

 

13. Trump to CIA: Say Goodbye to Your War on Terror

The Intercept · by Matthew Cole · December 19, 2020

I am told the Acting SECDEF's memo was blown out of proportion.  It was merely informing the DCIA that DOD is re-examining the more than a decade old memorandum of agreement for support.

This Intercept article is an interesting take on the simple review of the MOA.  

Excerpt:

“But interviews with six current and former national security officials, including some directly involved in the Pentagon's review, suggest it is neither immediate nor controversial. Instead, the review serves as a coda for the Trump administration's chaos - and as an unintentional gift to the incoming Biden administration.”

 

14.  Federal prosecutors accuse Zoom executive of working with Chinese government to surveil users and suppress video calls

The Washington Post· Drew Harwell and  Ellen Nakashima · December 18, 2020

If I was going to be subversive I would organize nation wide Zoom conferences to discuss the effects of Tiananmen Square.  I would try to overwhelm the Chinese censors with references to Tiananmen.  In fact, regardless of the subject of the Zoom conference I simply add this to the title (And Don't Forget the Crimes Against Humanity at Tiananmen).

 

15. Leaked Documents Show How China's Army of Paid Internet Trolls Helped Censor the Coronavirus

ProPublica · by Raymond Zhong, Paul Mozur and Aaron Krolik, The New York Times, and Jeff Kao

 

16. Army leaders push back on Mike Flynn's call for the military to 're-run' the 2020 election

taskandpurpose.com by Haley Britzky · December 18, 2020

Partisan politics aside this is why retired general officers need to be careful about their public statements.  These types of remarks damage the Army and the military,

 

17. China-Based Executive at U.S. Telecommunications Company Charged with Disrupting Video Meetings Commemorating Tiananmen Square Massacre

justice.gov · December 18, 2020

Good work DOJ.

 

18.  China accused of planning to exploit undersea cable networks to spy on other countries, report says

Business Insider · by Sophia Ankel

This harkens back to the Cold War - who says it is over?

 

19.  Pentagon Memo Maps Out Plan to Expand Diversity in the Force

military.com · by Lolita C. Baldor · December 18, 2020

 

20. Mission impossible: The origins of Delta Force

asiatimes.com · by Dave Makichuk · December 18, 2020

They are expendable????  I am not sure I would characterize its members that way/. Willing to be put at high risk?  Yes.  But expendable, no. 

 

----------------

 

The further a society drifts from truth, the more it will hate those who speak it."

-George Orwell

 

"The way of a superior man is three-fold: virtuous, he is free from anxieties; wise, he is free from perplexities; bold, he is free from fear." 

- Confucius

 

"We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution." 

- Abraham Lincoln  

12/19/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

Sat, 12/19/2020 - 1:15pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. North Korea's Economy Hit Harder Than It Has Been in Decades

2. South Korea's Zombie Companies Are Scarier Than the Movies

3.  Japan-South Korea: The Limits of Outreach Without Trust

4. Does North Korea Have a Social-Distancing Problem?

5. South Korea's hiking culture reflects its social pressures

6. Report: North Korea's top diplomat 'out' at Pyongyang's politburo

7. Biegun conveyed Washington's concern over Seoul's anti-leaflet law

8. Daily virus cases above 1,000 for 4th day, concerns rise over hospital capacity

9. USFK ups antivirus scheme for all areas in S. Korea amid resurgent pandemic

10. Mystery Structure Appears in Kim Il Sung Square

11. New Evidence Suggests Kangson Is Not A Uranium Enrichment Plant

12. Ex-presidential candidate to announce bid for Seoul mayoral by-election

13. 'Corresponding measures desirable to complete NK denuclearization'

14. Anti-leafleting law runs risk of branding South Korea as human rights violator

 

1. North Korea's Economy Hit Harder Than It Has Been in Decades

WSJ · by Andrew Jeong · December 19, 2020

What has "saved" north Korea in the past has been the Sunshine Policy (Kim Dae Jung) and the Peace and Prosperity Policy (Roh Moo Hyun) 1997-2007 which allowed large amounts of financial aid to be transferred from South to north (to include some $5000 million just to hold the north-South Summit in 2000 resulting in. Nobel Peace Prize for Kim Dae Jung.  The second thing that has helped to "save" north Korea was the failure of the Public Distribution System (PDS) and the rise of market activity that has led to the Dongju class (the "moneyed" class) and now some 400 plus markets throughout the north and flourishing black market and smuggling activities as well as a foreign currency trade. (as well as an unprecedented inflow of information and growth of intra-north Korean communications with the 6.5 million smartphones which is a key capability for market activity).

However, the conditions today are much different and the deliberate policy decisions are working hard to undo and destroy the societal resilience that has grown since the Arduous March of the great famine of 1994-1996.

The Kim family regime's response to COVID has been to implement draconian population and resources control measures.  These measures have shut down all legal trade with China as well as close the border to smuggling activities.  The regime is trying to force an end to the use of foreign currency and is attempting to regain control not only control over currency but of market activity.  And of course the regime is cracking down on information flow.  Combined with the natural disasters of this summer. The reduced harvest due to the disasters resulting in severe food shortages.  The regime's deliberate policy decisions and priorities were demonstrated in the October 10th military parade which the invest the regime has made in advanced weaponry to include a possible new ICBM and SLBM and a wide array of conventional military equipment.  The regime allocated scarce resources to military procurement rather than the welfare of the people.

The regime has taken away the "safety valves" for the population and if there is a COVID outbreak the suffering will be on a scale greater than the Arduous March.  And as I have emphasized repeatedly if there is a widespread outbreak within the military it could lead to catastrophic instability and potential regime collapse.  The bottom line is the conditions today are potentially far worse than what we saw in 1994-1996 when we really were worried about regime collapse.  I am Not predicting if or when the regime will collapse.  My admonition is we must be observed for the indicators of potential collapse (Robert Collins' 7 Phases of Collapse and his indications and warnings that have long served the command in Korea as the foundation for observing the conditions). But I will make this prediction: If there is regime collapse it WILL be catastrophic and it would behoove us to be prepared for the possibility even while we must maintain the capability to "fight tonight" because the conditions that lead to regime collapse could lead to the rational decision by Kim Jong-un to execute his campaign plan to unify the peninsula by force as his only path to regime survival.

 

2. South Korea's Zombie Companies Are Scarier Than the Movies

WSJ · by Mike Bird· December 17, 2020

I worry about another IMF crisis as happened in 1997 in Korea (and SE Asia as well).  The crisis then was double edged. It led to a lot of failed business and economic distress and suffering by the people.  But it also demonstrated South Korea resilience and how a Korean national spirit led to a rapid recovery (South Korea was the first country to pay back 100% of its IMF loans).  I recall South Korean citizens selling valuables to raise money to contribute to paying off the debt.  It showed the spirit of the Han. (Han River not Han Chinese).

But is South Korea in for a harder time than the IMF crisis?

 

3. Japan-South Korea: The Limits of Outreach Without Trust

thediplomat.com · by Kimura Kan · December 18, 2020

Yes, trust is required. Along with leadership on both sides.  Both Moon and Suga must agree to prioritize national security and national prosperity while they work to solve the historical issues.

Conclusion: If the Moon administration does want to improve relations with Japan, what should it do? First, it should demonstrate that it places more importance on Japan-Korea relations than on other issues and that it is working sincerely on settling the wartime labor issue, which has become the greatest obstacle to positive ties. To do this, instead of dispatching the head of the intelligence agency or members of parliament to conduct behind-the-scenes negotiations, senior officials from the South Korean government, including government leaders such as the president himself, should publicly share this position. The issue of historical awareness, a major stumbling block in relations between Japan and Korea, is one that concerns the Korean public, which is why past administrations have repeatedly chosen to nullify agreements that they had made, fearing public opinion. Can Moon ever take the risk of expressing to the Korean people the importance of relations with Japan and the need to settle the wartime labor issue? What is needed is not proposals but the exercising of leadership.

 

4. Does North Korea Have a Social-Distancing Problem?

The National Interest · by Stephen Silver · December 19, 2020

north Korea is after all a gulag state and we know that prisons are breeding grounds for COVID transmissions due to the inability to implement proper mitigation measures. (okay that was a snarky comment about the gulag state).

The buried lede may be this statement form the CDC: The Centers for Disease Control says, in its most recent guidance, that North Korea has a "level 4," meaning "Very High Level of COVID-19 in North Korea." Travelers are cautioned to "avoid all travel to North Korea," and that "travel may increase your chance of getting and spreading COVID-19."

 

5. South Korea's hiking culture reflects its social pressures

The Economist· December 19, 2020

It is often hard to social distance on some mountain trails that are packed with hikers (yes, somewhat of an exaggeration but I was always amazed at the numbers of hikers on trails - and of all ages!)

 

6. Report: North Korea's top diplomat 'out' at Pyongyang's politburo

upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim

He certainly fits the bill as representative of the evil nature of the Kim family regime:

“Ri made headlines in the South when he made incendiary remarks to a visiting South Korean delegation in 2018. Ri asked the South's business executives, including Samsung Electronics chairman Lee Jae-yong, whether the food served at a restaurant in Pyongyang was "making it down" their throats, using disrespectful language to refer to their anatomy.”

According to the Chosun, South Korean officials said they have determined Ri has been "eliminated" from the party committee, but the development still is being analyzed.

 

7. Biegun conveyed Washington's concern over Seoul's anti-leaflet law

donga.com· December 19, 2020

Yes, we are concerned.  This is not an internal South Korea issue.  It is a human rights issue and it is an issue affecting maximum pressure on the Kim family regime.  It is an issue that will cause the regime to double down on blackmail diplomacy due to its perceived successful extortion act by Kim Yo-jong.

 

8. Daily virus cases above 1,000 for 4th day, concerns rise over hospital capacity

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · December 19, 2020

Hospital capacity is a concern everywhere.

 

9. USFK ups antivirus scheme for all areas in S. Korea amid resurgent pandemic

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · December 19, 2020

Thank you Yonhap.  I assume this is in the Korean language press as well.  It is important to inform the Korean people in the South about how USFK is responding to COVID, in solidarity with the ROK.

 

10. Mystery Structure Appears in Kim Il Sung Square

38north.org · by Martyn Williams · December 18, 2020

Parade prep for the 8th Party Congress that is expected next month?  I leave it to the "squints" to assess and analyze.

 

11. New Evidence Suggests Kangson Is Not A Uranium Enrichment Plant

38north.org · by Olli Heinonen · December 18, 2020

Interesting.  Olli knows his stuff. He spent a lot of time in north Korea.

 

12. Ex-presidential candidate to announce bid for Seoul mayoral by-election

en.yna.co.kr · by 주경돈 · December 19, 2020

 

13.  'Corresponding measures desirable to complete NK denuclearization'

The Korea Times · December 19, 2020

This is an unfair and mischaracterized misrepresentation of the US position:  "The United States has demanded that North Korea dismantle its nuclear weapons program before expecting economic - or other - rewards, with Pyongyang rejecting what it called immediate and unilateral demands"

The US demands substantive working level talks and substantive action toward denuclearization before concessions are offered. The US is not going to give concessions simply for words from the regime.  We have been Charlie Brown kicking and missing the football for decades.  We do not want to get played again (cue The Who).  north Korea must demonstrate a true commitment to denuclearization which requires substantive action.   And we should never forget the words of President Moon Jae-in who sad in October of 2018 that sanctions should not be lifted until the north Korean nuclear program is dismantled past the point of no return.

The problem with the corresponding measures proposal is that the north never provides the corresponding measures.  We give concessions and the regime walks away or doubles down on blackmail diplomacy.

 

14. Anti-leafleting law runs risk of branding South Korea as human rights violator

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · December 16, 2020

Yes it does.

And worse.  It runs the risk of being called an appeaser of the existential threat to the Korean people in the South. It runs the risk of being accused of giving into Kim Yo-jong's extortion and blackmail diplomacy.

 

------------------

 

"All politics is based on the indifference of the majority."

- James "Scotty" Reston
 


"No man has the right to be ignorant. In a country like this, ignorance is a crime.If a man is going to vote, if he's going to take part in his country and his government, then it's up to him to understand."

- Louis L'Amour 


"Respect for ourselves guides our morals; respect for others guides our manners"

 - Laurence Sterne

USIP Publication: From COVID to the Caliphate: A Look at Violent Extremism Heading into 2021

Fri, 12/18/2020 - 2:51pm

This piece originally appeared on USIP.org.

Full Article: https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/12/covid-caliphate-look-violent-extremism-heading-2021

By Colin P. Clarke

It is more important than ever that policy to counter violent extremism be driven by informed decision-making.

Heading into 2021, the violent extremist landscape is more diverse than at any previous point in the last two decades since the start of the U.S.-led Global War on Terrorism. While that effort was almost exclusively focused on combating violent extremist organizations motivated by Salafi-jihadism, there has been a universal recognition that other forms of extremism have proliferated. Many governments and states feel completely unprepared and underequipped to deal with these new forms of extremism, which include, but are not limited to, racially and ethnically motivated terrorism, terrorism inspired by extreme misogyny, left-wing terrorism, and the rapid spread of conspiracy theories.

At the 2020 RESOLVE Network Global Forum, we focused on looking beyond the horizon to identify new forms of violent extremism and how those will manifest in the future. Several themes in particular are worth highlighting when considering the complex nature of the violent extremism landscape: the continued threat posed by remnants of the Islamic State, the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic will have on violent extremism and terrorist groups, and concepts like cultural loss and other so-called grievance narratives that violent extremist organizations leverage for recruitment and propaganda.

12/18/20 News & Commentary - National Security

Fri, 12/18/2020 - 11:58am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Hack of federal networks broader than SolarWinds vulnerabilities: cybersecurity officials

2. Breaking the boom-bust cycle of irregular warfare

3. Has China's economy already gone bust?

4. Russia hasn’t just hacked our computer systems. It’s hacked our minds.

5. Competition with China could be short and sharp

6. Amid massive hack, lawmakers urge Trump to sign defense bill with new cybersecurity legislation

7. Exposed: Chinese psyops against America - one hell of a success

8. A new normal for Wuhan as Chinese authorities float new theory on Covid-19 origins

9. The Chinese Communist Party’s human hack of western companies

10. 'Boogaloo Bois' member pleads guilty to conspiracy to provide material support to al-Qassam Brigades

11. No, the Chinese are not on the border of Maine - and the dangers of misinformation

12. Bellingcat can say what U.S. intelligence can’t

13. Space Force leader to become 8th member of joint chiefs

14. New ‘tri-maritime strategy’ released, but leaders struggle to explain certain key points

15. The world in a state of cyber warfare

16. CISA: SolarWinds not the only initial attack vector in massive breach

17. From COVID to the caliphate: a look at violent extremism heading into 2021

18. Michael Pack fiercely defends overhaul of Voice Of America, other U.S. broadcast outlets

19. SolarWinds isn't the only way hackers entered networks, CISA Says

 

1. Hack of federal networks broader than SolarWinds vulnerabilities: cybersecurity officials

Washington Times · Ryan Lovelace · December 17, 2020

 

2. Breaking the boom-bust cycle of irregular warfare

Modern War Institute · Shawna Sinnott & Andrew Milburn · December 18, 2020

Deak Roh, DASD for SOCT in ASD SO/LIC, and I discussed irregular warfare with Shawna Sinnott and Andrew Milburn in this podcast.

 

3. Has China's economy already gone bust?

1945 · Salvatore Babones · December 16, 2020

 

4. Russia hasn’t just hacked our computer systems. It’s hacked our minds.

Washington Post · Fareed Zakaria · December 17, 2020

 

5. Competition with China could be short and sharp

Foreign Affairs · Michael Beckley & Hal Brands · December 17, 2020

I am hearing one of the Top Gun theme songs in the background ("Danger zone").

 

6. Amid massive hack, lawmakers urge Trump to sign defense bill with new cybersecurity legislation

Defense One · Patrick Tucker · December 17, 2020

 

7. Exposed: Chinese psyops against America - one hell of a success

Center for Security Policy · Grant Newsham · December 15, 2020

Grant Newsham throws shade on everyone (and I mean everyone - on both sides of the aisle going back to Nixon).

Oh and it is PSYOP, not Psyops. Just saying. Perhaps the editor at the Center for Security Policy or And Magazine did not know.

 

8. A new normal for Wuhan as Chinese authorities float new theory on Covid-19 origins

France 24 · Charles Pellegrin · December 18, 2020

What do revisionist powers do? They revise history and theory.

 

9. The Chinese Communist Party’s human hack of western companies

FDD · Thomas Joscelyn · December 16, 2020

 

10. 'Boogaloo Bois' member pleads guilty to conspiracy to provide material support to al-Qassam Brigades

Long War Journal (FDD) · Joe Truzman · December 17, 2020

 

11. No, the Chinese are not on the border of Maine – and the dangers of misinformation

Navy Times · Howard Altman · December 16, 2020

Sigh...

 

12. Bellingcat can say what U.S. intelligence can’t

Foreign Policy · Amy Mackinnon · December 17, 2020

This is why our intelligence community must use "all source" information that includes open source reporting from journalists and organizations such as Bellingcat.

 

13. Space Force leader to become 8th member of joint chiefs

US Department of Defense · Jim Garamone · December 18, 2020

But not the Chief of Special Operations. Oh, but we do not have one of those. I would be satisfied if we made the Commander of USSOCOM a member of the Joint Chiefs. My thoughts are here.

I was hoping because the Chairman wore his Green Beret to the Army Navy game this weekend that he would push to make the Commander of USSOCOM a member of the Joint Chiefs (note tongue in cheek with this comment - but I believe it is the first time we have seen the CJCS wear a Green Beret).

 

14. New ‘tri-maritime strategy’ released, but leaders struggle to explain certain key points

Navy Times · Geoff Ziezulewicz · December 17, 2020

 

15. The World in a State of Cyber Warfare

NATO Association of Canada · Sarah Nebbal · December 17, 2020

 

16. CISA: SolarWinds not the only initial attack vector in massive breach

Dark Reading · Kelly Jackson Higgins · December 17, 2020

 

17. From COVID to the caliphate: a look at violent extremism heading into 2021

United States Institute of Peace · Colin P. Clarke · December 15, 2020

 

18. Michael Pack fiercely defends overhaul of Voice Of America, other U.S. broadcast outlets

Washington Times · Bill Gertz · December 14, 2020

Foreign nationals (the majority of the employees of VOA, RFA, etc.) do not receive security clearances.  You must be a US citizen to hold a security clearance.

But the article smacks of using a rule by law argument to control the reporting of news. Sure, fix the organization, correct the errors, but do not use that as an excuse to shape the message so that it is only friendly to the administration, which is the underlying intent of the actions. I know an excellent journalist who is now leaving the US because his visa is not being renewed, not because he did anything wrong but only because of the decision not to renew visas, which sounds like mass punishment.

The first two paragraphs are spot on. The second two paragraphs illustrate the real issue and either a lack of understanding of our values or a lack of respect for how journalism and journalists work (and, I think, a low self-esteem). This is all about eliminating criticism of the administration, which should go against everything that makes America "exceptional." As an aside, I spend about 90% of the time that I work with the Korea service of VOA and RFA explaining and advocating US policies (and the rest of the time explaining the evil nature of the Kim family regime.

 

19. SolarWinds isn't the only way hackers entered networks, CISA says

Defense One · Aaron Boyd · December 17, 2020

 

“There is nothing which I dread so much as a division of the republic into two great parties, each arranged under its leader, and concerting measures in opposition to each other. This, in my humble apprehension, is to be dreaded as the greatest political evil under our Constitution.”

- John Adams, The Works Of John Adams, Second President Of The United States

“The man who is deserving the name is the one whose thoughts and exertions are for others rather than for himself.”

- Walter Scott

“Always do sober what you said you'd do drunk. That will teach you to keep your mouth shut.”

- Ernest Hemingway

12/18/20 News & Commentary - Korea

Fri, 12/18/2020 - 11:15am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. After year of dormancy, S. Korea looks to 2021 for reignited N.K. diplomacy

2. South Korea’s new anti-leaflet law sparks backlash in Washington

3. US lawmakers to hold hearing on Seoul’s leaflet ban in Jan.

4. Civic groups decry criticism from U.S. of leafleting ban as 'interference in internal affairs'

5. North Korea executes fishing fleet captain for listening to RFA

6. Daily virus cases above 1,000 for 3rd day, toughest curbs still under review

7. S. Korea keeping close eye on N. Korean FM amid report he lost key party position

8. U.S. should send dialogue message to N.K. at Blinken's confirmation hearing: expert

9. N. Korea's production of crops down 5.2 pct in 2020

10. USFK commander calls for 'immediate, aggressive' antivirus scheme

11. N. Korean authorities issue order calling for strict compliance to social distancing rules

12. VOA interview series: “KDVA will pave forward to become a pivotal bridge to dissolve misunderstanding between two nations”

13. Anti-leaflet law poses threat to freedom in North and South Korea

14. North marks anniversary of Kim Jong-Il's death, but with less fanfare than past years

15. South Korea ban on balloon drops: a slippery slope

16. Former U.S. nuclear negotiator says N. Korea's ultimate goal is to secure regime

17. UN passes North Korean human rights resolution for 16th consecutive year

 

1. After year of dormancy, S. Korea looks to 2021 for reignited N.K. diplomacy

Yonhap News Agency · 송상호 · December 18, 2020

A relatively optimistic assessment of potential South Korean diplomacy for 2021. 

But I think the Moon administration may be disappointed here.

I think the first thing the ROK/US alliance must do is re-examine and re-assess the assumptions upon which strategy and policy must be based. I think the Moon administration may find the Biden administration does not agree with the fundamental assumptions of the Moon administration regarding both the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime.

 

2. South Korea’s new anti-leaflet law sparks backlash in Washington

Washington Post · Josh Rogin · December 17, 2020

This may be the first major Alliance issue for the Biden Administration. And there are those in South Korea who are upset with the US response.

 

3. US lawmakers to hold hearing on Seoul’s leaflet ban in Jan.

Korea Herald · Ahn Sung-mi · December 18, 2020

We should think about subversion by the Kim family regime against South Korea and the ROK/US alliance and we need to think about the ideological war between the Kim family regime, South Korea and the free world.

Subversion: the undermining of the power and authority of an established system or institution.

As in: "the ruthless subversion of democracy"

Ideological War – a choice between:

Shared ROK/US Values

Freedom and individual liberty, liberal democracy,  rule of law, free market economy, and human rights

Kim family regime (KFR) “values”

Juche/Kimilsungism, Socialist Workers Paradise, Songun, Songbun, Byungjin, rule BY law, and denial of human rights to sustain KFR power

NK engages in active subversion of the ROK as well as the ROK/US Alliance

 

4. Civic groups decry criticism from U.S. of leafleting ban as ‘interference in internal affairs’

Yonhap News Agency · 송상호 · December 18, 2020

I am sorry to my Korean friends. But friends and especially allies do not shy away from advising their friends and allies about the strategic mistake they are making. And frankly this is not an internal South Korean issue. One, it is a human rights issue to get information to the Korean people living in the North (see the 2014 UN Commission of Inquiry Report). Second, North Korea poses a threat beyond South Korea to the region and the US. Appeasing the regime with this law harms the execution of policy and strategy. The law reinforces the regime's belief its political warfare strategy is working. We will see a doubling down of the regime’s blackmail diplomacy which uses provocations and increased tensions and threats to gain political and economic concessions. 

So, again, I apologize to my Korean friends, but this is not interference in internal affairs. You are making a huge strategic mistake and now we must prepare for how the Kim family regime will exploit it.

 

5. North Korea executes fishing fleet captain for listening to RFA

Radio Free Asia · Sewon Kim, Leejin Jun, & Eugene Whong · December 17, 2020

I am reminded of the story in the Orphan Master's Son (awarded the Pulitzer Prize for fiction). The protagonist would listen to foreign radio broadcasts while he was working on a fishing boat (that also conducted kidnap operations). And he was influenced by them.

The buried lede is the captain picked up the "habit" of listening to foreign broadcasts in the military.

Of course, this also is an example of the brutal nature of the Kim family regime as well as how Korean society functions under the Songbun system. 

 

6. Daily virus cases above 1,000 for 3rd day, toughest curbs still under review

Yonhap News Agency · 송상호 · December 18, 2020

 

7. S. Korea keeping close eye on N. Korean FM amid report he lost key party position

Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · December 18, 2020

The game of thrones continues. The leadership watchers are never bored.

 

8. U.S. should send dialogue message to N.K. at Blinken’s confirmation hearing: expert

Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · December 18, 2020

I expect Joel Wit and Frank Januzzi to have roles in the Biden Administration (though some would argue since they are speaking in public that they are not yet on tap for positions - perhaps later on they will be and now they are part of the strategic personnel bench).

 

9. N. Korea’s production of crops down 5.2 pct in 2020

Yonhap News Agency · 강윤승 · December 18, 2020

I guess the only surprising thing is that it is only 5.2%

 

10. USFK commander calls for ‘immediate, aggressive’ antivirus scheme

Yonhap News Agency · 오석민 · December 18, 2020

 

11. N. Korean authorities issue order calling for strict compliance to social distancing rules

Daily NK · Kim Yoo Jin · December 18, 2020

I know I am beating the drum on this and that I may sound like Chicken Little or the boy who cried wolf:  we need to be ready for the effects of a major coronavirus outbreak in North Korea, especially within the military. A widespread outbreak within the military could destabilize the regime and such effects could be catastrophic.

On the other hand, if the regime is successful in mitigating the effects of COVID and preventing an outbreak, it will be solely because of the nature of the Kim family regime and its ability to implement and enforce the strictest and most hard population and resources control measures.

 

12. VOA interview series: “KDVA will pave forward to become a pivotal bridge to dissolve misunderstanding between two nations”

Korea Defense Veterans Association · Dong-hyun Kim · December 17, 2020

 

13. Anti-leaflet law poses threat to freedom in North and South Korea

Forbes · Olivia Enos · December 17, 2020

 

14. North marks anniversary of Kim Jong-il's death, but with less fanfare than past years

Korea Joong Ang Daily · Shim Kyu-Seok · December 17, 2020

???? An Iran-like deal for North Korea

 

15.  South Korea ban on balloon drops: a slippery slope

Asia Times · Bradley K. Martin · December 17, 2020

Slippery slope? More like an avalanche of ice.

 

16. Former U.S. nuclear negotiator says N. Korea's ultimate goal is to secure regime

Yonhap News Agency · 고병준 · December 17, 2020

Yes, but...

Yes, Ambassador DeTrani is exactly right. It is all about survival of the regime. But we must understand how the regime thinks about its survival and what it believes it must do to survive.

In order to survive, the regime believes it is in a zero-sum, existential conflict with the South and the regime must therefore eliminate the South and dominate the entire peninsula. 

Second, we must not misunderstand this and think that providing security guarantees to the regime will somehow satisfy it and will lead to the end of the nuclear and missile programs and the threat against the South. The only security "guarantee" the regime will "accept'' is the end of the ROK/US alliance, removal of US troops, and the end of extended deterrence and the nuclear umbrella over the ROK and Japan. But if we concede to those demands we will only see a future of conflict in which the regime will continue to execute its political warfare strategy and ultimately execute its campaign plan to unify the peninsula by force.

 

17. UN passes North Korean human rights resolution for 16th consecutive year

Korea Times · December 17, 2020

Note that South Korea did not sign on to the resolution. Disappointing. Appeasing North Korea does not work.

 

“There is nothing which I dread so much as a division of the republic into two great parties, each arranged under its leader, and concerting measures in opposition to each other. This, in my humble apprehension, is to be dreaded as the greatest political evil under our Constitution.”

- John Adams, The Works Of John Adams, Second President Of The United States

“The man who is deserving the name is the one whose thoughts and exertions are for others rather than for himself.”

- Walter Scott

“Always do sober what you said you'd do drunk. That will teach you to keep your mouth shut.”

- Ernest Hemingway

Breaking the Boom-Bust Cycle of Irregular Warfare - Modern War Institute

Fri, 12/18/2020 - 7:12am

 and  | 12.18.20

Access the podcast HERE

Where does irregular warfare fit within the framework of national security policy? Does the recently released Irregular Warfare (IW) Annex attenuate focus, or relegate IW to a policy afterthought? How can IW concepts become enduring elements of a comprehensive effort toward competition and conflict with US adversaries?

Episode 16 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast is an examination of the IW Annex to the National Defense Strategy of 2018 and includes substantive insight from the US Department of Defense office responsible for the product’s development and recent release. Retired Col. David Maxwell and Mr. Deak Roh explain the impetus for producing the annex and its relevance in an era defined by great power competition. They then discuss the practical considerations of implementation and institutionalization of the annex’s concepts, from aspects of campaign planning to professional military education, and emphasize the critical roles of both special operations and conventional forces. Importantly, our guests evaluate the manner in which these concepts can become enduring elements of the US national security strategy and a crucial component of political warfare in the future.