News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Opinion | All 10 living former defense secretaries: Involving the military in election disputes would cross into dangerous territory

2. Extraordinary warning to Trump by 10 former Pentagon chiefs

3. Bill introduced in US House to terminate designation of Pakistan as major non-NATO ally

4. Europe's New Pact With China Is Terribly Timed

5. USS Nimitz to Stay in Middle East to Counter Iran Threat on Anniversary

6. Marines Prepare for Rising Challenge From China's Military With Island Training

7. Trump And The Military: What An Erratic Commander In Chief Leaves Behind

8. A Grand Strategy Based on Resilience

9. Special Operations News Update - Monday, January 4, 2021

10. The Bill Is Coming Due for China's 'Capitalist' Experiment

11. New in 2021: Bonhomme Richard will be turned into scrap

12. New in 2021: Murder trials set for Navy SEAL and Marine Raider in death of Green Beret

13. Gohmert talks of violence in streets after his lawsuit is dismissed

14. Wonder Weapon: Meet the U.S. Special Operations Off-Road 'Flyer'

15. Meet the key members of Joe Biden's transition team

16. U.S. foreign military sales broke records in 2020, and may grow more in 2021

17. Donald Trump Isn't Planning to Attack Iran

1. Opinion | All 10 living former defense secretaries: Involving the military in election disputes would cross into dangerous territory

The Washington Post by Ashton Carter, Dick Cheney, William Cohen, Mark Esper, Robert Gates, Chuck Hagel, James Mattis, Leon Panetta, William Perry and Donald Rumsfeld · January 3, 2021

Many words could describe this but I will simply use unprecedented.

2. Extraordinary warning to Trump by 10 former Pentagon chiefs

AP · by Robert Burns · January 4, 2021

Extraordinary is another word to describe this letter.

Excerpt: The Post reported that the idea for writing the opinion piece began with a conversation between Cheney and Eric Edelman, a retired ambassador and former senior Pentagon official, about how Trump might seek to use the military in coming days.

3. Bill introduced in US House to terminate designation of Pakistan as major non-NATO ally

indiatoday.in · by Lalit K Jha · January 4, 2021

Reporting from India. I have not seen this in the US mainstream media but it is probably overshadowed by other news.

4. Europe's New Pact With China Is Terribly Timed

Bloomberg · by Editorial Board · January 4, 2021

It would seem so.

Conclusion: "European leaders were right to call the Trump administration's unilateral approach to China all bluster and no results. There's no reason to think European unilateralism will work any better."

5. USS Nimitz to Stay in Middle East to Counter Iran Threat on Anniversary

WSJ · by Gordon Lubold and Nancy A. Youssef· January 4, 2021

The OPTEMPO for our navy must be brutal.

6. Marines Prepare for Rising Challenge From China's Military With Island Training

WSJ · by Alastair Gale· January 4, 2021

Excerpts:

“At one of a series of recent exercises, a few dozen Marines faded into long grass after touching down in two CH-47 Chinook helicopters, followed by Japanese soldiers arriving in two Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft. Their simulated mission: avoiding detection and recapturing a port on an island inside the range of much of the enemy's missiles and artillery.”

“The exercise reflected a new emphasis on small, dispersed troop units and command centers, which are intended to be harder to locate and destroy. The simulation was one of the first to be directed from a command hub consisting of three armored vehicles that can be set up or moved in minutes and emit fewer traceable signals.”

7. Trump And The Military: What An Erratic Commander In Chief Leaves Behind

NPR · by Tom Bowman · January 4, 2021

Title aside, a fairly objective review from a wide range of defense experts and analysts.

8. A Grand Strategy Based on Resilience

warontherocks.com · by Erica D. Borghard · January 4, 2021

Conclusion: "Of course, the particulars of a resilience-based approach will vary by sector and function - each is defined by its own stakeholders, requirements, unique technologies, types of threats, relationship with society, and so on. In other words, financial resilience, which is critical for the U.S. economy, had fundamentally different requirements than the resilience of energy infrastructure, or the resilience of the U.S. nuclear deterrent, or the resilience of American alliances. That said, beginning to incorporate resilience into strategy and creating market incentives for private sector and government entities alike to prioritize and invest in their resilience is an essential first step toward refreshing American grand strategy for current and future challenges. That is because, in a great-power competition, resilience is likely to be a significant comparative advantage. If American grand strategy rests on "winning" every interaction in the so-called great-power competition, policymakers are left with a brittle strategy that forces unpalatable choices between capitulation and escalation. Resilience, however, obviates that need by anticipating that setbacks will be part of the strategic environment and, therefore, preparing in advance to address them."

9. Special Operations News Update - Monday, January 4, 2021

sof.news · by SOF News · January 4, 2021

SOF News has returned from hiatus.  It is a good source from across the SOF community.

10. The Bill Is Coming Due for China's 'Capitalist' Experiment

National Review Online · by Michael Hochberg · January 1, 2021

11. New in 2021: Bonhomme Richard will be turned into scrap

navytimes.com · by Geoff Ziezulewicz · January 3, 2021

I wonder what would have happened if we lost the Bonhamme Rochard during combat operations.  How would we replace the capability?  How long would it take to rebuild the capability?

12. New in 2021: Murder trials set for Navy SEAL and Marine Raider in death of Green Beret

armytimes.com · by Todd South · January 3, 2021

Not the kind of 'joint SOF operations" we want to highlight.  But this tragic and terrible event will continue to remain in the news and haunt the SOF community when the trial takes place this year.

13. Gohmert talks of violence in streets after his lawsuit is dismissed

The Hill · by John Bowden · January 3, 2021

This is so troubling. But for those who advocate violence I would like to know what is your strategy?  How do you intend to employ violence and to what effect?  What is the end game and how to you propose to achieve that through violence?

14. Wonder Weapon: Meet the U.S. Special Operations Off-Road 'Flyer'

The National Interest · by Peter Suciu · January 3, 2021

15. Meet the key members of Joe Biden's transition team

The Telegraph · by David Millward,

16. U.S. foreign military sales broke records in 2020, and may grow more in 2021

upi.com· by Christen McCurdy· January 1, 2021

17. Donald Trump Isn't Planning to Attack Iran

19fortyfive.com · by ByMichael Rubin · January 3, 2021

--------

"Brinksmanship ...  the deliberate creation of a recognizable risk, a risk that one does not completely control. It is the tactic of deliberately letting the situation get somewhat out of hand, just because its being out of hand may be intolerable to the other party and force his accommodation.  It means harassing and intimidating an adversary by exposing him to a shared risk, or by deterring him by showing that if he makes a contrary move he may disturb us so that we slip over the rink whether we want to or not, carrying him with us." 

- Thinking Strategically, Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff

"If your organization is small in numbers, then do what Gideon did: conceal the numbers in the dark but raise a din and clamor that will make the listener believe that your organization numbers many more than it does.... Always remember the first rule of power tactics: Power is not only what you have but what the enemy thinks you have."

-  Rules for Radicals, Saul Alinsky

"All you need are these: certainty of judgment in the present moment; actions for the common good in the present moment; and an attitude of gratitude in the present moment for anything that comes your way." 

- Marcus Aurelius

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. North Korea is showing off more than just massive missiles, but its new military hardware may be less than meets the eye

2. New cases rebound to over 1,000 despite extended virus curbs

3. N.K. paper calls for ramped-up antivirus campaign ahead of party congress

4. N. Korea likely to open rare party congress this week

5. Population Decline Calls for New National Strategy (South Korea)

6. Worker furloughs at stake as US, South Korea resume military cost-sharing talks

7. Ex-Presidents Could Be Pardoned This Year (South Korea)

8. 23 new virus cases reported in USFK, total exceeds 500

9. Defense ministry extends restrictions on troop vacations over pandemic

10. FM Kang calls for early high-level exchanges with incoming Biden gov't to cement alliance

11. Minister says he hopes for positive message from N. Korea

12. Six lawmakers head to Washington for inauguration

13. 'Biden should build on Trump's North Korea policy'

14. South Korea needs to take actions to keep North Korea issue high on US agenda

15. 'What to Do About North Korea'

16. Voters lean toward opposition (South Korea)

17. South Korea's 30th anniversary of UN membership and New Year

1. North Korea is showing off more than just massive missiles, but its new military hardware may be less than meets the eye

Business Insider · by Benjamin Brimelow

My PIR is to determine how much of the equipment we observed on October 10th is actually operational and has been fielded to operational units.

2. New cases rebound to over 1,000 despite extended virus curbs

en.yna.co.kr · by 김은정 · January 4, 2021

3. N.K. paper calls for ramped-up antivirus campaign ahead of party congress

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · January 4, 2021

But still no reported cases in north Korea.  I have to give the regime credit for how well it is controlling information.

But will the 8th Party Congress be a super spreader event?  Will the members wear masks?  Will they socially distance?

4. N. Korea likely to open rare party congress this week

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · January 4, 2021

Does Kim want to compete with the media coverage of the Georgia run-off or with Congress' certification of the electoral college vote?  Will the party congress be internally focused or externally focused?  What message will Kim have for Moon and Biden?

5. Population Decline Calls for New National Strategy

english.chosun.com

My four word strategy:  "Solve the Korea question."

6. Worker furloughs at stake as US, South Korea resume military cost-sharing talks

Stars and Stripes· Erica Earl· January 4, 2021

We should not forget the Special Measures Agreement stalemate continues.

Excerpts:

“In June, South Korea provided $200 million to pay the entire Korean workforce at U.S. bases through the end of 2020.

The U.S. military warned its South Korean base employees in November that they may face another furlough in 2021 if an agreement cannot be reached.”

7. Ex-Presidents Could Be Pardoned This Year (South Korea)

english.chosun.com· January 4, 2021

8. 23 new virus cases reported in USFK, total exceeds 500

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · January 4, 2021

Excerpts:

“Of the newly reported cases, eight service members and one dependent arrived at Osan Air Base in the city of Pyeongtaek, some 70 kilometers south of Seoul, on U.S. government chartered flights from the U.S. between Dec. 16 and 29, according to USFK.

Nine service members, three dependents, one contractor and one retired service member arrived on international commercial flights at Incheon International Airport, west of Seoul, between Dec. 16 and 31, it added.”

9. Defense ministry extends restrictions on troop vacations over pandemic

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · January 4, 2021

Interestingly it seems the ROK military and USFK have nearly the same total numbers of infections though the ROK military has about 650,000 active duty personnel and USFK has 28,500 personnel.  It appears the ROK military is doing a good job managing the pandemic.

Excerpts:

“On Monday, South Korea added 1,020 more COVID-19 cases, including 985 local infections, on Monday, raising the total caseload to 64,264, according to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA).

Up until Monday morning, the military reported a total of 508 virus cases.

Currently, 431 service members are in isolation in accordance with the health authorities' guidelines, and the military has quarantined an additional 3,386 people under stricter antivirus schemes of its own as a preventive step, according to the ministry.

10. FM Kang calls for early high-level exchanges with incoming Biden gov't to cement alliance

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · January 4, 2021

Excerpts:

"On the occasion of the launch of the new U.S. administration, we will have to develop the South Korea-U.S. alliance by realizing early high-level exchanges and through other measures," Kang was quoted by her office as saying.

"We will also have to further cement cooperation with neighboring countries, such as China, Japan and Russia," she added.

11. Minister says he hopes for positive message from N. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · January 4, 2021

Wishful thinking?  As former CSA General Sullivan used to say "hope is not a course of action."

However, this attitude indicates a lack of understanding of the nature, strategy, and objectives of the Kim family regime.

The biggest source of friction in the ROK/US alliance is not the SMA negotiation stalemate or OPCON transition or THAAD or relations with China.  It is the pacific wide difference in strategic assumptions about the nature of the Kim family regime.  Unless the ROK and US can come to sufficient common agreement about the strategic assumptions upon which to base policy and strategy the alliance is going to struggle.

12. Six lawmakers head to Washington for inauguration

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Kim Hyo-Seong, Park Hyeun-Ju, and Shim Kyu-Seok

I do not think these lawmakers are going to convince any US officials about the new anti-leaflet law.  They are miscalculating.

Excerpts:

“PPP Rep. Chung cast the trip's objective as "restoring a traditional Korea-U.S. relationship" by shoring up ties that he claimed were pulled apart by the Moon Jae-in administration.

For DP lawmakers, another main goal for the trip is to explain to the Biden administration its recent passage of a highly controversial bill banning the sending of propaganda leaflets to North Korea.”

13. 'Biden should build on Trump's North Korea policy'

The Korea Times · by Kang Seung-woo· January 4, 2021

A roll-up of recommendations from a number of Korea hands.

14. South Korea needs to take actions to keep North Korea issue high on US agenda

The Korea Times · January 4, 2021

I am sorry but north Korea is not going to be high on the Biden administration agenda as much as many of us would like it to be (unless Kim really acts out and does something drastic).  COVID and the US economy (treated as one issue) have to be the top priority.  Then China, Russia, Iran, and north Korea will compete for attention along with many other issues from climate change to trade agreements.

The key for the Biden administration is to have a strong Korea team that can manage the Korea issues.

15. 'What to Do About North Korea'

The Korea Times · by Chang Se-moon · January 3, 2021

A fascinating Oped that criticizes the Moon administration uses an interesting Nokia analogy.  Mr. Chang brings to together some very interesting points of view, information, and analogy.

16. Voters lean toward opposition

The Korea Times· by Yi Whan-woo · January 3, 2021

Will this impact the 2022 Presidential election?

17. South Korea's 30th anniversary of UN membership and New Year

The Korea Times · by Kang Kyung-wha · January 3, 2021

I am not surprised the Foreign Minister did not mention the UN Command and the contribution it made to defending freedom in South Korea.

-------

"Brinksmanship ...  the deliberate creation of a recognizable risk, a risk that one does not completely control. It is the tactic of deliberately letting the situation get somewhat out of hand, just because its being out of hand may be intolerable to the other party and force his accommodation.  It means harassing and intimidating an adversary by exposing him to a shared risk, or by deterring him by showing that if he makes a contrary move he may disturb us so that we slip over the rink whether we want to or not, carrying him with us." 

- Thinking Strategically, Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff

"If your organization is small in numbers, then do what Gideon did: conceal the numbers in the dark but raise a din and clamor that will make the listener believe that your organization numbers many more than it does.... Always remember the first rule of power tactics: Power is not only what you have but what the enemy thinks you have."

-  Rules for Radicals, Saul Alinsky

"All you need are these: certainty of judgment in the present moment; actions for the common good in the present moment; and an attitude of gratitude in the present moment for anything that comes your way." 

- Marcus Aurelius

https://mwi.usma.edu/artificial-intelligence-in-counterterrorism-and-counterinsurgency-with-retired-gen-stan-mcchrystal-and-dr-anshu-roy/

What role do information and intelligence play in counterinsurgency? How can artificial intelligence assist in tracking and identifying insurgent or terrorist activity? What are some of the opportunities and challenges of using AI in irregular warfare contexts?

Interviewers: Nick Lopez and Kyle Atwell

https://www.soc.mil/AssortedPages/ARSOF_Strategy.pdf

A re-up of the ARSOF strategy as the U.S. Government, Department of Defense, and Special Operations Command continue to adapt to the current and future security environment. 

Synopsis: The new Army Special Operations Forces (ARSOF) Strategy aligns efforts to achieve the 2018 Army Vision and synchronize with U.S. Special Operations Command strategic guidance. Great power competition means the Nation is in conflict right now - USASOC remains ready and engaged against violent extremist organizations while also adapting to compete against Russia and China, and preparing for war as part of the Army Team.

An analysis from CSIS on aspects of the recent fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia. There is some outstanding analysis in open sources as well, which highlighted the effect airpower in particular can have on poorly prepared conventional forces.

Full Article: https://www.csis.org/analysis/air-and-missile-war-nagorno-karabakh-lessons-future-strike-and-defense

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Lab leak is the 'most credible' source of the coronavirus outbreak

2. Nashville’s Big Bomb Was a Very Rare Device, Experts Think

3. Pandemic could multiply terror threat's reach and cause mutations

4. Mapped: The Top Surveillance Cities Worldwide

5. Opinion | Horrified by the Blackwater Pardons

6. SolarWinds hack may be much worse than originally feared

7. I’m a former CIA agent: Iran was behind Lockerbie and should be made to pay

8. Targeted Killings Are Terrorizing Afghans. And No One Is Claiming Them.

9. Retired generals aren't supposed to lead the Pentagon: Here's why

10. Dave Barry’s Year in Review 2020

1. Lab leak is the 'most credible' source of the coronavirus outbreak

Daily Mail · by Abul Taher · January 2, 2021

Information (intelligence? or just "credible theory" as he says) from Matt Pottinger.

Lab leak is the 'most credible' source of the coronavirus outbreak

China lab leak is the 'most credible' source of the coronavirus outbreak, says top US government official, amid bombshell claims Wuhan scientist has turned whistleblower

• Donald Trump's Deputy National Security Adviser Matthew Pottinger spoke
• Mr Pottinger told politicians leak is emerging as 'most credible source' of virus
• He claimed the pathogen may have escaped through a 'leak or an accident' 

2. Nashville’s Big Bomb Was a Very Rare Device, Experts Think

The Daily Beast · by SpyTalk · January 1, 2021

What was the motive?  But the type of explosive does seem troubling.  But I will leave it to the demolition experts (including 18Cs) to assess.

Excerpt:

“Accidental thermobaric explosions are not uncommon—for example, when a house explodes because of a natural gas leak. But IED-makers haven’t tried to stage them deliberately, up to now, Williams says, because too many things have to go right.

That’s why investigators must be eager to locate Warner’s proving ground, and also any internet sources he studied as he was building a timer and ignition mechanism that enabled him to blow up a Nashville city block, and himself, at 6:30 a.m. on Christmas Day.”

3. Pandemic could multiply terror threat's reach and cause mutations

straitstimes.com · by Zakir Hussain · January 2, 2021

Excerpts:

“Twenty years after the Sept 11, 2001 terror attack by Al-Qaeda on the United States and the discovery of regional terror network Jemaah Islamiah (JI), there is a need to be alert to three broad trends on the terror front.

One, a resurgence of traditional terror organisations like JI.

Two, a spike in radicalisation as people spend more time online.

Three, new mutations of terror.”

4. Mapped: The Top Surveillance Cities Worldwide

visualcapitalist.com · by Avery Koop · January 1, 2021

Graphics and charts at the hyperlink. Some fascinating data.

5. Opinion | Horrified by the Blackwater Pardons

The New York Times · by Michael Posner and Meg Roggensack · January 1, 2021

We should all be horrified but this FBI agent has the inside knowledge to know what really went on.

6. SolarWinds hack may be much worse than originally feared

The Verge · by Kim Lyons · January 2, 2021

A troubling excerpt, though I am confident we will learn from our mistakes - the problem is our adversaries are "learning organizations" and they are unlikely to use the same TTPs for the next hack.

“The Times reports that early warning sensors that Cyber Command and the NSA placed inside foreign networks to detect potential attacks appear to have failed in this instance. In addition, it seems likely that the US government’s attention on protecting the November elections from foreign hackers may have taken resources and focus away from the software supply chain, according to the Times. And conducting the attack from within the US apparently allowed the hackers to evade detection by the Department of Homeland Security.”

7. I’m a former CIA agent: Iran was behind Lockerbie and should be made to pay

blogs.timesofisrael.com · by John Holt · January 3, 2021

Well I am sure Mr. Holt had no say in the headline as he was not a CIA "agent."  I cannot vouch for the veracity but this goes against the conventional wisdom which I had thought was accurate since 1988.

8. Targeted Killings Are Terrorizing Afghans. And No One Is Claiming Them.

The New York Times · by Fahim Abed and Thomas Gibbons-Neff · January 2, 2021

There seems to be no limit to the complexity of Afghanistan.

9. Retired generals aren't supposed to lead the Pentagon: Here's why

Salon· by Dwight Stirling · January 3, 2021

Excerpt:

“When it came to the Constitution, the Founders specifically prescribed civilian control over the military by assigning the president the role of commander-in-chief while giving Congress the power to set the military's rules and budget.

Also the power to declare war lies with Congress as does the authority for establishing the rules for governing the military (UCMJ).

But I wonder how a retired General as SECDEF puts any of those responsibilities at risk or puts civilian control of the military at risk. He does not usurp any of these responsibilities for authorities.  And I do not think General Austin is a MacArthur.  I am not sure that is really a sound argument.

That said, I do not think a General is any more or less qualified to be SECDEF that a non-career military officer.  I question the decision based on the political capital President-elect Biden has to expend for successful confirmation.  Is he worth the cost?”

10. Dave Barry’s Year in Review 2020

The Washington Post · by Dave Barry

Now that hindsight really is 2020 (I could not resist borrowing that), it is time to read Dave Barry's reflections.

-------------

"Those who know the rules of true wisdom are baser than those who love them. Those who love them are baser than those who follow them." 

- Chinese Proverb

"What is the fruit of these teachings?  Only the most beautiful and proper harvest of the truly educated - tranquility, fearlessness, and freedom.  We should not trust the masses who say only the free can be educated but rather the lovers of wisdom who say that only the educated are free." 

- Epictetus

"A Prince need trouble little about conspiracies when the people are well disposed, but they are hostile and hold him in hatred, then he must fear everything and everybody." 

- Machiavelli

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. New infections under 1,000 for 2nd day amid extended tighter distancing rules (South Korea)

2. Imprisoned ex-presidents must show remorse for potential pardons: ruling party

3. Moon's approval rating drops to lowest point

4. Kim ditches trademark New Year's address in favor of handwritten letter

5. S. Korean population falls for 1st time on record low births

6. President Moon's keywords for 2021: economy, stability, communication

7. Pyongyang’s annus horribilis

8. South Korean health ministry takes down pandemic dance video after backlash

1. New infections under 1,000 for 2nd day amid extended tighter distancing rules (South Korea)

en.yna.co.kr · by 주경돈 · January 3, 2021

Surely there is a lag between cause and effect.  We likely will not see the real effects of tighter social distancing rules for weeks to come.

2. Imprisoned ex-presidents must show remorse for potential pardons: ruling party

en.yna.co.kr · by 유지호 · January 3, 2021

It is hard to show remorse when you believe you did nothing wrong or were the victim of trumped up charges.

3. Moon's approval rating drops to lowest point

en.yna.co.kr · by 유지호 · January 3, 2021 

I wonder if President Moon's approval rating would rise if he pardoned former Presidents Lee and Pak.

4. Kim ditches trademark New Year's address in favor of handwritten letter

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Lee Sung-Eun and Yoo Jee-hye

As noted this is not the first time Kim has not given a New Year's address. He did not give one last year.  Now we wait for the 8th Party Congress to see if and how Kim will describe his future initiatives.

5. S. Korean population falls for 1st time on record low births

en.yna.co.kr · by 유지호 · January 3, 2021

Another reason why unification is important to the future of Korea.

6. President Moon's keywords for 2021: economy, stability, communication

The Korea Times · January 1, 2021

But diplomacy, the alliance and north Korea are still important.

7. Pyongyang’s annus horribilis

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· Lee Young-jong

I had to look up "annus horribilis." It means a year of disaster or misfortune.

There is a lot to unpack from the editorial.  Here is one key point: "What’s noteworthy is that all major state projects that had been carried out at the behest of Kim have either foundered or mysteriously disappeared from North Korean news outlets. Kim dug up the first shovel of dirt last March to mark the start of construction work for Pyongyang General Hospital, and he ordered his underlings to complete the hospital by October. But for months, North Korean media remained mum about it. The world has not heard any updates about the Wonsan-Kalma Coastal Tourist Area construction project either. Kim attended a ribbon-cutting ceremony highlighting the opening of the Suncheon Phosphatic Fertilizer Factory last May, but there haven’t been any follow-up news reports on the factory. The fact that Kim’s instructions are not being materialized indicates the North’s absolute depletion of available resources."

8. South Korean health ministry takes down pandemic dance video after backlash

straitstimes.com · January 2, 2021

The video has been taken down from most platforms but can be accessed at the embedded link.

I did not think the video was that offensive.  I think the Geico clogging commercial is more irritating. 

-----------

"Those who know the rules of true wisdom are baser than those who love them. Those who love them are baser than those who follow them." 

- Chinese Proverb

"What is the fruit of these teachings?  Only the most beautiful and proper harvest of the truly educated - tranquility, fearlessness, and freedom.  We should not trust the masses who say only the free can be educated but rather the lovers of wisdom who say that only the educated are free." 

- Epictetus

"A Prince need trouble little about conspiracies when the people are well disposed, but they are hostile and hold

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Better understanding irregular warfare in competition

2. Rising in the East: The Evolution of the Islamic State in the Philippines

3. How Taiwan Plans to Stay (Mostly) Covid-Free

4. Exercise Deep Water: Working the Integrated Distributed Insertion Force

5. Biden Can't Assume America Beats China in a Taiwan War

6. Defense-Bill Override Paves Way for Overhaul of Anti-Money-Laundering Rules

7. How the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation ended up in Congress’s $900 billion relief bill

8. In Abrupt Reversal of Iran Strategy, Pentagon Orders Aircraft Carrier Home

9. Everything That Happened in 2020, Summed Up in Shakespeare Quotes

10. A Hasty Withdrawal From Somalia

11. How ironic: Brevard County firefighters last call of 2020 was a dumpster fire

12. Poisoner, Hacker, Meddler, Spy: How Russian Agents Ran Wild

13. Coronavirus Resistance Linked to Plenty of Sunshine

14. Why does US counter China’s initiative?

15. As Understanding of Russian Hacking Grows, So Does Alarm

16. Microsoft says hackers were able to see some of its source code

17. Look at Wuhan a year after 1st acknowledgment of COVID-19

18. The Army Is Pursuing a Device That Can Turn Battlefield Ditch Water into Lifesaving IV Fluid

19. How Russia’s ‘Info Warrior’ Hackers Let Kremlin Play Geopolitics on the Cheap

20. George Orwell is out of copyright. What happens now?

1. Better understanding irregular warfare in competition

militarytimes.com · by Kevin Bilms · January 1, 2021

An important article from a current DOD official with responsibility for the new IW annex to the National Defense Strategy.

My short thesis: Irregular Warfare is the military contribution to the national level political warfare strategy. This excerpt describes that:

“Instead, the United States should consider a new approach, one that is informed by the IW Annex to the NDS. Applied with strategic focus, IW represents one way the military can apply its power complementarily with diplomatic, economic, financial and other elements of government power to secure strategic outcomes. Options exist using IW to counter maritime coercion through foreign internal defense; bolster partners and allies’ resilience against aggression through effective unconventional warfare; disrupt malign actors via robust counter-threat network capabilities; and shape the information space in politically sensitive environments through concerted military information support operations and civil affairs operations. These are far more affordable, and produce far less strain to the joint force, than relying on conventional solutions or delaying action until crisis.”

These are my thoughts which I have shared before.

Key point:  We should stop the proliferation of terminology (which I think causes intellectual paralysis) and adopt Irregular Warfare as the military contribution to Political Warfare. Political warfare is how we should describe the competition space between peace and war and is the defining element in Great Power Competition.  While state on state warfare is the most dangerous threat or course of action of GCP and why we must absolutely invest in deterrence and defense, Political War is the most likely threat or course of action. 

And I would add with absolutely no apologies to Leon Trotsky: America may not be interested in irregular, unconventional, and political warfare but IW/UW/PW are being practiced around the world by those who are interested in them – namely the revisionist, rogue, and revolutionary powers and violent extremist organizations.

•       The dominant threat or problem we face is one political warfare supported by hybrid military approaches – and these approaches are best described as irregular warfare in DODD 3000.7 - a “violent struggle among state and non-state actors for legitimacy and influence over the relevant populations.”  It states that IW consisted of UW, foreign internal defense (FID), CT, counterinsurgency, and stability operations (SO).

•       So we have to be able to conduct our own form of Irregular warfare which of course includes the 5 mission sets I just named but is best described by Congress in the 2017 NDAA: Irregular Warfare is conducted “in support of predetermined United States policy and military objectives conducted by, with, and through regular forces, irregular forces, groups, and individuals participating in competition between state and non-state actors short of traditional armed conflict.”

·      What is an example of how SOF contributes to Political Warfare through IW ? - through "unconventional deterrence" (the work of Bob Jones)- helping to harden populations and militaries of friends, partners, and allies to resist the malign influence of revisionist, rogue, and revolutionary powers and violent extremist organizations.  This is exemplified by the Resistance Operating Concept pioneered by SOCEUR to counter Russian malign influence in Europe..  This model has application around the world especially if adapted for countries targeted by China's One Belt One Road initiative or in countries such as Taiwan.

It is time for us to shift from the Clausewitzian “War is politics or policy by other means” and embrace our adversaries’ views: “Politics is war by other means” or as Mao said, “Politics is war without bloodshed, while war is politics with bloodshed.”

2. Rising in the East: The Evolution of the Islamic State in the Philippines

ctc.usma.edu · December 30, 2020

From West Point's Combatting Terrorism Center.  The 62 page report can be downloaded here.  

3. How Taiwan Plans to Stay (Mostly) Covid-Free

The New York Times · by Raymond Zhong · January 2, 2021

"No man is an island."  But in the age of COVID it I may be an advantage when a country is an island.  We should be asking what lessons we can we learn from Taiwan?

4. Exercise Deep Water: Working the Integrated Distributed Insertion Force

sldinfo.com · by Robbin Laird · December 31, 2020

5. Biden Can't Assume America Beats China in a Taiwan War

19fortyfive.com · by Daniel Davis · December 31, 2020

A sober assessment.  Would this embolden China and the PLA? Would it make them overconfident?  

6. Defense-Bill Override Paves Way for Overhaul of Anti-Money-Laundering Rules

WSJ · by Jack Hagel · January 1, 2021

Perhaps one of the most important actions in the NDAA.

7.  How the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation ended up in Congress’s $900 billion relief bill

The Washington Post · by Paul O'Donnell · January 1, 2021

8. In Abrupt Reversal of Iran Strategy, Pentagon Orders Aircraft Carrier Home

The New York Times · by David Sanger and Eric Schmitt · January 1, 2021

All warfare is based on deception?

9. Everything That Happened in 2020, Summed Up in Shakespeare Quotes

sparknotes.com · by Elodie · December 31, 2020

Shakespeare remains relevant in 2021 (at least for helping to explain 2020).  I hope he is not banned the way the Odyssey was in a Massachusetts high school.

10. A Hasty Withdrawal From Somalia

WSJ · by The Editorial Board· December 31, 2020

Politics does trump strategy.

11. How ironic: Brevard County firefighters last call of 2020 was a dumpster fire

fox35orlando.com · by FOX 35 News Staff

Appropriate irony.

12. Poisoner, Hacker, Meddler, Spy: How Russian Agents Ran Wild

The Daily Beast · by SpyTalk· December 31, 2020

13. Coronavirus Resistance Linked to Plenty of Sunshine

english.chosun.com· January 2, 2021

"Let the sunshine in" from the 5th Dimension in the Age of Aquarius.

Maybe we could have massive (but socially distanced) sunbathing parties.  Reopen the beaches!! 

14. Why does US counter China’s initiative?

donga.com

Interesting OpEd from the Donga Ilbo.  A long back at a 1993 book "Can Asians Think?"

This is quite a critique of the past 20 years:

15. As Understanding of Russian Hacking Grows, So Does Alarm

The New York Times · by By · January 2, 2021

Excerpts:

“When the S.V.R. broke into the unclassified systems at the State Department and White House, Richard Ledgett, then the deputy director of the National Security Agency, said the agency engaged in the digital equivalent of “hand-to-hand combat.” At one point, the S.V.R. gained access to the NetWitness Investigator tool that investigators use to uproot Russian back doors, manipulating it in such a way that the hackers continued to evade detection.

Investigators said they would assume they had kicked out the S.V.R., only to discover the group had crawled in through another door.

Some security experts said that ridding so many sprawling federal agencies of the S.V.R. may be futile and that the only way forward may be to shut systems down and start anew. Others said doing so in the middle of a pandemic would be prohibitively expensive and time-consuming, and the new administration would have to work to identify and contain every compromised system before it could calibrate a response.

“The S.V.R. is deliberate, they are sophisticated, and they don’t have the same legal restraints as we do here in the West,” said Adam Darrah, a former government intelligence analyst who is now director of intelligence at Vigilante, a security firm.

Sanctions, indictments and other measures, he added, have failed to deter the S.V.R., which has shown it can adapt quickly.”

16. Microsoft says hackers were able to see some of its source code

The Verge · by T.C. Sottek · December 31, 2020

17.  Look at Wuhan a year after 1st acknowledgment of COVID-19

ABCNews.com · by ABC News

18. The Army Is Pursuing a Device That Can Turn Battlefield Ditch Water into Lifesaving IV Fluid

military.com · by Matthew Cox · December 31, 2020

Fascinating innovation.  I hope it proves feasible.

19. How Russia’s ‘Info Warrior’ Hackers Let Kremlin Play Geopolitics on the Cheap

WSJ · by Georgi Kantchev in Moscow and Warren P. Strobel in Washington

20.  George Orwell is out of copyright. What happens now?

The Guardian · by DJ Taylor · January 1, 2021

----------

"Read the best books first, otherwise you'll find you do not have time."
- Henry David Thoreau

"The chief task in life is simply this: to identify and separate matters so that I can say clearly to myself which are the externals not under my control, and which have to do with the choices I actually control.  Where then do I look for good and evil? Not to uncontrollable externals but within myself to the choices that are my own..."
- Epictetus

'Shall I ask the brave soldier, who fights by my side, In the cause of mankind, if our creeds agree? Shall I give up the friend I have valued and tried, if he kneel not before the same alter as me."
- Thomas Moore

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. S. Koreans put alliance with US before inter-Korean relations

2. North Korea may offer olive branch to US

3. Kim Jong-un's Sister Labelled 'North Korea's Most Outspoken Attack Dog' by Western Media

4. 2021 Won't Be Any Better for North Korea

5.  On a locked-down New Year's Eve, Pyongyang parties

6. Defense chief inspects defense posture in new year

7. Kim Jong Un Keeps Biden Guessing After Skipping New Year Speech

8. Suspected Ganggye Chemical Factory leak pollutes nearby Changja River

9. New virus cases fall below 900, gov't extends current social distancing scheme

1. S. Koreans put alliance with US before inter-Korean relations

donga.com· January 2, 2021

I can say I side with my Korean brethren in South Korea.  I hope this resonates with both the Moon and incoming Biden administrations.  This is an important data point  (that of course confirms my bias so there is that).

Excerpt: "Notably, strengthening alliance with the U.S. has earned a percentage three times higher than the restoration of the inter-Korean relations. While North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is expected to set a direction of this year at the 8th Labor Party Conference, South Korean citizens are already aware that the inter-Korean relations will make little improvement for the time being."

2.  North Korea may offer olive branch to US

The Korea Times · by Kang Seung-woo · January 2, 2021

Wishful thinking?  Charlie Brown and Lucy's football?  How many times have we heard this?  How many times have we seen a substantive and sincere effort to improve relations with the US?  

Every time I read this kind of hopeful speculation I have to ask for the answers to this questions/

1. Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?

2. In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula?  Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?

The answers to these questions should guide us to the strategy to solve the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice) and lead to the only acceptable durable political arrangement: A secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government with respect for individual liberty, the rule of law, and human rights, determined by the Korean people.  In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK)

The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State. 

I hope i am wrong. I recognize I could be wrong as there are no experts on north Korea and none of us can know what is Kim Jong-un's true intent.  We can only assess and analyze based on history, actions, and words of the regime. I will gladly accept all the criticism of being wrong if Kim Jong-un does demonstrate a sincere effort to improve relations with the US that is not part of his political warfare strategy and long con.

3. Kim Jong-un's Sister Labelled 'North Korea's Most Outspoken Attack Dog' by Western Media

sputniknews.com · by Aleksandra Serebriakova. Sputnik International

Moscow's Sputnik News criticizes Don Kirk and his recent analysis of Kim Yo-jong.

4. 2021 Won't Be Any Better for North Korea

The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · January 1, 2021

The headline "prediction" that has the highest chance of being right. But there is more to this article.

This excerpt reminds of something we rarely talk about.  In 1994 when we concluded the Agreed Framework to freeze the regime's nuclear program and trade that for 2 light water nuclear reactors and 500K ton of heavy fuel oil every year we based that on an assumption the dire economic situation in north Korean would result in collapse.  That was a bad assumption though it did lead us to do some planning for the possibility (and those of us who conducted the planning ever predicted if or when the regime would collapse but recognized only that if it did collapse it would be a catastrophic event for the ROK/US alliance, the region, and possibility the international community).  We also assess that while the regime proved extraordinarily resilient it was likely "saved" the ROK's implementation of the Sunshine Policy and the Peace and prosperity Policy from 1997 through 2007.  But we need to consider the conditions are much different now than in 1994-1996 and 1997 through 2007.

Excerpt:

“In other words, the Biden administration will be engaging in self-delusion if it comes into office believing a poor economy will drive the North into doing what it has refused to do for years: hand over the keys to its nuclear kingdom. This doesn't mean Kim would be opposed to other diplomatic arrangements with Washington, such as an interim freeze-for-freeze agreement or a deal fashioned in the traditional mould of an arms control accord. But it does mean that quick, complete, and verified denuclearization is as unlikely in 2021 as it was in 2020.”

5. On a locked-down New Year's Eve, Pyongyang parties

washingtontimes.com · by David R. Sands

No reports of COVID cases, draconian population and resources control measures for the Koreans throughout north Korea and "partying like it is 1999" in Pyongyang.

6. Defense chief inspects defense posture in new year

en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · January 2, 2021

Just as an aside, I think "Sejong the Great" is one of the coolest names for a warship.

7. Kim Jong Un Keeps Biden Guessing After Skipping New Year Speech

Bloomberg · by Jon Herskovitz and Jeong-Ho Lee · December 31, 2020

I wanted to highlight this comment from Soo Kim:

"The party congress is Kim Jong Un's one shot at articulating the country's strategy for the new year and sending some signals to the outside world," said Soo Kim, a Rand Corp. policy analyst who previously worked at the Central Intelligence Agency. "I'd think the Party Congress would give us further glimpse into North Korea's weaknesses and the regime's efforts to compensate or deny that these weaknesses exist."

8. Suspected Ganggye Chemical Factory leak pollutes nearby Changja River

dailynk.com · January 1, 2021

Perhaps we could offer the US "Superfund" solution as part of our humanitarian assistance offering.

But on a serious note, what kind of chemicals are being produced at this factory?  I would think they are dual use.

9. New virus cases fall below 900, gov't extends current social distancing scheme

en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · January 2, 2021

-----------

"Read the best books first, otherwise you'll find you do not have time." 

- Henry David Thoreau

"The chief task in life is simply this: to identify and separate matters so that I can say clearly to myself which are the externals not under my control, and which have to do with the choices I actually control.  Where then do I look for good and evil? Not to uncontrollable externals but within myself to the choices that are my own..." 

- Epictetus

'Shall I ask the brave soldier, who fights by my side, In the cause of mankind, if our creeds agree? Shall I give up the friend I have valued and tried, if he kneel not before the same alter as me."

- Thomas Moore