Full Article: https://warontherocks.com/2020/12/the-marines-and-americas-special-operators-more-collaboration-required/

By Gordon Richmond

A discussion from a U.S. Special Forces Officer at 1st Special Forces Group on future cooperation between SOCOM and the USMC for the Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations concept and how SOCOM can learn from the USMC's Force Design 2030 experience as it orients towards competition with China and Russia. The article also explores the role of relatively junior Marine officers in driving recent discussion and debate. 

The Indigenous Approach Podcast (from 1st Special Forces Command) discusses the 1st Special Forces Command Vision Document. The podcast episode is accessible through any of the below links.

Episode 2 – Vision for 2021 & Beyond:

MG Brennan, BG Marks, CW5 Holton, CSM Munter, and COL Croot discuss the command’s recently-published vision document.

Vision Document: https://www.soc.mil/USASFC/Documents/1sfc-vision-2021-beyond.pdf

Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/vision-2021-and-beyond/id1534621849?i=1000495023082

Google Podcasts: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5idXp6c3Byb3V0LmNvbS8xMzg5MTc1LnJzcw/episode/QnV6enNwcm91dC01OTI3NDI4?sa=X&ved=0CAQQkfYCahcKEwj4hd3nyuXtAhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQAQ

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4WHauijwcA

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/3zyo6Avu7RHeA4gJ88gBcE?si=jgRG-WVFR2q7DM_wiQ0yRQ 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Sometimes the Tourniquet Works All Too Well

2. Government Officials Announce U.S. Strategy to Prevent Conflict, Promote Stability

3. Pay For Some Will Decrease to Cover Social Security Deferrals

4. Biden accuses Trump appointees of obstructing transition on national security issues

5. The Marines and America’s Special Operators: More Collaboration Required

6. War Books: Major General Mick Ryan's 2021 Reading List

7. Inciting Subversion by Association: 120 Days in Detention

8. FDD | International Criminal Court election could facilitate reset with US

9. Xi eyes unwavering development of China-Russia partnership

10. Why the WHO is urging vaccinated travelers to take coronavirus precautions

11. The Biden Administration Must Prioritize Extended Deterrence

12. US Department of Energy backs five advanced nuclear reactor concepts

13. Even Homer Gets Mobbed: A Massachusetts school has banned ‘The Odyssey.’

14. Beijing’s Bigger Honey Trap

15. Great Power War: How U.S. Special Operations Forces See the Future

16. The End of the Wilsonian Era: Why Liberal Internationalism Failed

17. Why America must retaliate after massive cyberattack from Russia

18. FAA approves small drones in the U.S. to fly over people and at night

19. Forget Command And Control. Navy Leadership Is About Care And Trust (Book Review)

20. As U.S. forces leave, Somalia’s elite fighting unit fears becoming a political pawn

 

1. Sometimes the Tourniquet Works All Too Well

WSJ· by Gerald Holmquist · December 28, 2020

This is quite a story.

 

2. Government Officials Announce U.S. Strategy to Prevent Conflict, Promote Stability

defense.gov · by David Vergun

I hope this initiative is sustained in the next administration.

 

3. Pay For Some Will Decrease to Cover Social Security Deferrals

defense.gov · by David Vergun

This is a "Bah Humbug" for military and government civilians.

 

4. Biden accuses Trump appointees of obstructing transition on national security issues

The Washington Post· by Amy B Wang, Jenna Johnson and  Dan Lamothe · December 28, 2020

Not a good look. I hope there is more to the story.

 

5. The Marines and America’s Special Operators: More Collaboration Required

warontherocks.com · by Gordon Richmond · December 29, 2020

An interesting argument for SOF-USMC collaboration. 

Gordon Richmond throws down the gauntlet to the SOF community here.  Write.

 

6. War Books: Major General Mick Ryan's 2021 Reading List

mwi.usma.edu · by Mick Ryan · December 29, 2020

More than books:  Includes web site resources, podcasts, journals, twitter feeds, and even a film.

This is a very useful resource for military and national security professionals.

 

7. Inciting Subversion by Association: 120 Days in Detention

madeinchinajournal.com · by Li Qiaochu · December 23, 2020

We should add this to the data for SERE training so we understand Cinese TTPs.

 

8. FDD | International Criminal Court election could facilitate reset with US

fdd.org · by Orde Kittrie · December 26, 2020

From my colleague Orde Kittrie. 

Conclusion: "The ICC has strayed far from its worthy founding objectives. The close US allies who are its leading funders should seize the opportunity, provided by the upcoming ICC election, to clean up the ICC and restore it to its core mission."

 

9. Xi eyes unwavering development of China-Russia partnership

xinhuanet.com · December 29, 2020

Note the recent Russia-PRC combined air operations in the Korean Air defense Identification Zone.

 

10. Why the WHO is urging vaccinated travelers to take coronavirus precautions

Axios · by Axios

 

11. The Biden Administration Must Prioritize Extended Deterrence

The National Interest · by Patty-Jane Geller · December 28, 2020

Excerpts:

“A No First Use policy signals to America’s allies that it may be unwilling to come to their aid no matter the circumstances, including chemical, biological, or overwhelming conventional attacks. Pledging to not use nuclear weapons first only reassures America’s adversaries, not its allies.

Ultimately, if Joe Biden wants to value alliances as a pillar of U.S. strength, then he needs to prioritize extended deterrence. That means fully resourcing the nuclear modernization programs that assure our allies and avoiding bad ideas like implementing a No First Use policy.

Strengthening relationships with allies is a worthy goal. To fully demonstrate that commitment to our allies, the next administration must prioritize extended deterrence.”

12. US Department of Energy backs five advanced nuclear reactor concepts

New Atlas · December 29, 2020

Conclusion: "All of these projects will put the US on an accelerated timeline to domestically and globally deploy advanced nuclear reactors that will enhance safety and be affordable to construct and operate," says US Secretary of Energy Dan Brouillette. "Taking leadership in advanced technology is so important to the country’s future because nuclear energy plays such a key role in our clean energy strategy."

 

13. Even Homer Gets Mobbed: A Massachusetts school has banned ‘The Odyssey.’

WSJ · by Meghan Cox Gurdon · December 29, 2020

This is unbelievable. This has to stop.

Conclusion: "He’s right. If there is harm in classic literature, it comes from not teaching it. Students excused from reading foundational texts may imagine themselves lucky to get away with YA novels instead—that’s what the #DisruptTexts people want—but compared with their better-educated peers they will suffer a poverty of language and cultural reference. Worse, they won’t even know it."

 

14. Beijing’s Bigger Honey Trap

WSJ · by William McGurn· December 29, 2020

Excerpts:

“The is the missing backdrop to the Hunter Biden and Eric Swalwell cases. Mr. Swalwell isn’t accused of any wrongdoing, but does anyone believe he is the only U.S. politician (or staffer) compromised by a Chinese honey trap? As for Mr. Biden, even without criminal charges, shouldn’t a press corps so eager to report the false but salacious charges about Donald Trump at least consider the possibility that China may have incriminating evidence on the new president’s son?

Next July marks the 50th anniversary of Henry Kissinger’s secret trip to China. China has changed much since then, and so has its approach to America. Joe Biden might be tempted to think his son’s case and that of Mr. Swalwell will pass. But they won’t, because they are part of a much larger and more sinister China story to which Americans are only now waking up.”

 

15. Great Power War: How U.S. Special Operations Forces See the Future

The National Interest · by Kris Osborn · December 27, 2020

This is a very narrow and frankly, unhelpful, discussion of one small aspect of special operations in great power competition.

 

16 The End of the Wilsonian Era: Why Liberal Internationalism Failed

Foreign Affairs · by Walter Russell Mead · December 28, 2020

Conclusion:

“There are other, less Machiavellian ways to keep Wilsonians engaged. Even as the ultimate goals of Wilsonian policy become less achievable, there are particular issues on which intelligent and focused American policy can produce results that Wilsonians will like. International cooperation to make money laundering more difficult and to eliminate tax havens is one area where progress is possible. Concern for international public health will likely stay strong for some years after the COVID-19 pandemic has ended. Promoting education for underserved groups in foreign countries—women, ethnic and religious minorities, the poor—is one of the best ways to build a better world, and many governments that reject the overall Wilsonian ideal can accept outside support for such efforts in their territory as long as these are not linked to an explicit political agenda.

For now, the United States and the world are in something of a Wilsonian recession. But nothing in politics lasts forever, and hope is a hard thing to kill. The Wilsonian vision is too deeply implanted in American political culture, and the values to which it speaks have too much global appeal, to write its obituary just yet.”

 

17. Why America must retaliate after massive cyberattack from Russia

The Hill · by Douglas Schoen · December 27, 2020

Conclusion: "In order to confront the threat from Russia and China, we must bolster our alliances with our partners in Europe, a task that Trump often approached with disinterest or outright scorn. Biden enters office with the mandate to gather countries in favor of democracy to a stalwart resistance to counter the militaristic belligerence and aggression from Russia and China. This is a difficult feat that we must not and cannot achieve alone."

 

18. FAA approves small drones in the U.S. to fly over people and at night

VentureBeat · by David Shepardson · December 29, 2020

So when one of these crashes on your property who do you call and what do you do with the remains (and the delivery items)?

 

19. Forget Command And Control. Navy Leadership Is About Care And Trust (Book Review)

Forbes · by Roger Trapp · December 29, 2020

Conclusion: "This might not be quite what we expect of those who have developed their leadership skills in the armed services. But with many people finding reassurance in the involvement of the military in the current crisis, the book offers a fascinating glimpse into how caring, trust and performance are intertwined."

 

20. As U.S. forces leave, Somalia’s elite fighting unit fears becoming a political pawn

The Washington Post· by  Max Bearak · December 29, 2020

I hope we went in with the plan to work ourselves out of a job from the very start.  You can never know when the political plug will be pulled on an operation.  I think I will add that to my lists of adages and planning considerations.

 

-----------

 

"Democracy is a difficult art of government, demanding of its citizens high ratios of courage and literacy, and at the moment we lack both the necessary habits of mind and a sphere of common reference."- Lewis H. Lapham 

 

“We talk about the Constitution. We have to follow it. And I’m sorry if that’s not the outcome that you wanted.” - Adam Kinzinger

 

"Although our interests as citizens vary, each one is an artery to the heart that pumps life through the body politic, and each is important to the health of democracy." - Bill Moyers

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Human rights groups file constitutional complaint over leafleting ban

2. Coal Miners Mobilized ‘Like Slaves’ in North Korea’s 80-Day Battle

3. North Korea increases number of guard posts on border

4. USFK begins initial COVID-19 vaccinations

5. USFK Starts Coronavirus Vaccinations

6. US military reports 10 coronavirus cases in South Korea, two in Japan over holiday weekend

7. Kim Jong Un’s Nuclear Weapons Got More Dangerous Under Trump

8. S. Korea's new top nuclear envoy holds phones talks with Chinese, Russian counterparts

9. Kim Jong Un likely to skip New Year's speech, report says

10. Defense ministry vows 'active push' for assessment of conditions for OPCON transfer next year

11. Moon becomes vaccine-buyer-in-chief

12. U.S. flies reconnaissance plane over Korea amid report of military parade preparations in Pyongyang

13. N. Korea could conduct ICBM test early next year: think tank

14. Moderna agrees to supply vaccines for 20 mln to S. Korea from Q2 2021: Cheong Wa Dae

15. USFK under Biden leadership is ‘equation of higher degree’

16. Moon to Reshuffle Cabinet Next Month

 

1. Human rights groups file constitutional complaint over leafleting ban

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · December 29, 2020

Will the Moon administration get the message?

 

2. Coal Miners Mobilized ‘Like Slaves’ in North Korea’s 80-Day Battle

rfa.org· by Hyemin Son

Why do you think I call north Korea the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State?

 

3. North Korea increases number of guard posts on border

dailynk.com· by Mun Dong Hui · December 29, 2020

The regime appears to be trying to exert maximum control over the border and the Korean people.

 

4. USFK begins initial COVID-19 vaccinations

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · December 29, 2020

General Abrams leading the way.

Excerpts:

The Moderna vaccine was authorized for emergency use earlier this month and taking a vaccine is not mandatory but voluntary.

But Abrams said, "I strongly encourage all eligible individuals to receive the vaccine."

"The COVID-19 vaccine is another tool that will help USFK maintain a robust combined defensive posture and our 'Fight Tonight' readiness approach," he said.

 

5. USFK Starts Coronavirus Vaccinations

english.chosun.com· December 29, 2020

I would hope we would have begun vaccinating KATUSAs and Korean civilian employees as well.  Beyond that I would recommend we vaccinate all members of the ROK/US CFC, US and Korean military personnel.  We need to do this if we are going to conduct the winter Combined Command Post training event in February/March.

 

6. US military reports 10 coronavirus cases in South Korea, two in Japan over holiday weekend

Stars and Stripes· by Akifumi Ishikawa· December 28, 2020

 

7. Kim Jong Un’s Nuclear Weapons Got More Dangerous Under Trump

Bloomberg · by Jon Herskovitz · December 28, 2020

October 10th showed us that Kim Jong-un has always prioritized the development of military capabilities over the welfare of the Korean people living in the north. We must understand the true nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.

Nuclear weapons, missiles, conventional weapons, military research.

Yes, the popular view is to blame Trump and his unconventional, experimental top-down, pen-pail diplomacy, but we must understand the blame lies with Kim Jong-un and the Kim family regime. The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.  Until we make this basis of our strategic assumptions (along with the objectives and strategy), we will not be able to solve the "Korea question" and put an end to the nuclear threat and the crimes against humanity.

 

8. S. Korea's new top nuclear envoy holds phones talks with Chinese, Russian counterparts

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · December 29, 2020

It may be performance, but I think the new envoy is beginning his shaping operation to prepare for the incoming Biden administration.

 

9. Kim Jong Un likely to skip New Year's speech, report says

upi.com· by Elizabeth Shim · December 28, 2020

Will he or won't he?

 

10. Defense ministry vows 'active push' for assessment of conditions for OPCON transfer next year 

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · December 28, 2020

For OPCON transition to happen next year we must achieve the conditions.  We should keep in mind the conditions were agreed to by both the ROK and US leadership.  They were based on analysis and recommendation by Korean and US military professionals.  Failure to achieve those conditions before OPCON transition occurs will put the security of South Korea and the ROK/US alliance at risk.

Now if the conditions need to be reassessed then this needs to be discussed and agreed to at the MCM/SCM.  However, the reassessment needs to be done by professionals and not for political reasons.

OPCON transition is very important for the alliance and it must be done right.  Of course, politics dominates the decision-making but the military professionals must continue to advise the political leaders about the security conditions and consequences of failing to achieve those conditions.

 

11. Moon becomes vaccine-buyer-in-chief

n.news.naver.com· by Ser Myo-Ja

 

12. U.S. flies reconnaissance plane over Korea amid report of military parade preparations in Pyongyang

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · December 29, 2020

We must keep our eye on the regime.

 

13. N. Korea could conduct ICBM test early next year: think tank

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · December 29, 2020

Of course, it could.  Blackmail diplomacy is in the regime's DNA (Blackmail diplomacy - the use of increased tensions and provocations to gain political and economic concessions).   We must not forget that the number one short-term objective is to get sanctions relief.  Kim has promised the elite and military leadership that he could play Trump and Moon and get sanctions relief without giving up his nuclear weapons.  According to my friends who have escaped from north Korea, this is one of the biggest failures of the Kim family regime in 7 decades.  This has put Kim under enormous internal pressure.  Combined with COVID, the failed economy, the natural and humanitarian disasters, the draconian population and resources control measures and the coming humanitarian crisis for the Korea people all combine to create a perfect storm for the regime.  So we are likely to see Kim continue blackmail diplomacy and execute his political warfare strategy in the short term in support of his long term objectives to dominate the Korean peninsula.  However, things could come crashing down if Kim cannot juggle all these dangerous balls.

 

14. Moderna agrees to supply vaccines for 20 mln to S. Korea from Q2 2021: Cheong Wa Dae

en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · December 29, 2020

Some good news.

 

15. USFK under Biden leadership is ‘equation of higher degree’

donga.com· December 29, 2020

There is a confluence of events and conditions that may significantly impact the alliance.  This is an interesting analogy, 

Excerpt: "Experts in and outside the military express concerns that the USFK issues under the Biden administration will be like an “equation of higher degree” where domestic and overseas variables will work complexly while they were like an equation of the first degree under the Trump administration where the only variable was defense costs."

But, this paragraph illustrates the complex challenges we face.  Some think the incoming Biden administration is going to fix alliance issues but it is not as simply as that. 

Excerpt: "The perspective to view the USFK as a bargaining chip or leverage for negotiations on North Korea’s nuclear issues is a dangerous one that may give an excuse for misjudgment to North Korea and China and cause instability on the Korean Peninsula and in the region. Approaching the USFK issues with a limited outlook during the period of rapid changes in Northeast Asia’s security landscape surrounding the Korean Peninsula will be no help to the ROK-U.S. alliance and South Korea’s security."

 

16. Moon to Reshuffle Cabinet Next Month

english.chosun.com· December 29, 2020

When faced with a crisis, rearrange the deck chairs?

Excerpts:

“Moon had hoped to get away with a small-scale reshuffle, replacing only Choo and Minister of SMEs and Start-ups Park Young-sun, who plans to run for Seoul mayor. But the scope of the Yoon disaster, which forced Moon to apologize to the public for "causing confusion," makes it inevitable to get rid of a lot more dead wood.

Moon's approval rating has plummeted further because of the government's failure to secure timely supplies of coronavirus vaccines and a tough lockdown over the festive season.”

 

----------

 

"Democracy is a difficult art of government, demanding of its citizens high ratios of courage and literacy, and at the moment we lack both the necessary habits of mind and a sphere of common reference."- Lewis H. Lapham 

 

“We talk about the Constitution. We have to follow it. And I’m sorry if that’s not the outcome that you wanted.” - Adam Kinzinger

 

"Although our interests as citizens vary, each one is an artery to the heart that pumps life through the body politic, and each is important to the health of democracy." - Bill Moyers

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Wondering just how loyal a US ally Moon Jae-in is

2. Human rights and nuclear talks

3.  Kim Yo Jong Is Ready to Become the First Woman Dictator in Modern History

4. Kim Jong-un calls meeting as North Korea faces worst economic crisis since 1990s famine

5.  Biden has options with North Korea. Surrender mustn't be one | Opinion

6. New infections under 1,000 for 2nd day amid extended virus curbs

7. USFK to begin COVID-19 vaccination Tuesday

8. N. Korea logs positive economic growth for 1st time in 3 years in 2019: data

9.  N.K. leader could skip New Year's Day speech ahead of party congress: experts

10. N. Korea's paper emphasizes 'self-reliance' as 80-day campaign draws to end

11. North Korea creates new camp for violators of COVID-19 quarantine rules

12. North Korean authorities order more personnel to help recovery efforts at Gomdok Mine

13. Preparations underway for major party event in North Korea

14. Public disapproval of Moon's presidency close to 60 pct: Realmeter

15. Quarter of recent local COVID-19 infections originate among family members: PM

16. S. Korea to maintain nuclear phaseout scheme, scale back coal power generation

17. Mired in crises, North Korea's Kim to open big party meeting

18. Construction on North Korea's answer to Ibiza 'grinds to a halt'

 

1. Wondering just how loyal a US ally Moon Jae-in is

asiatimes.com · by Grant Newsham · December 28, 2020

Along with Dr. Tara O and Gordon Chang, Grant Newsham is becoming one of the most critical voices of President Moon's politics, especially toward north Korea and our shared values.

The benefit of the doubt: The Moon administration is naive about the Kim family regime.  The worst case: the possibilities that Gordon, Tara, and Grant describe.

I will state my recommendation again:  The Moon administration needs to reassesses its assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime and recognize what the regime is really about and not deal with it as they wish it would be.  It is critical that the incoming Biden administration work with the Moon administration and reassess the strategic assumptions and come to an agreement on what assumptions should be used to develop combined alliance policy and strategy toward north Korea.  Failure to have sufficient alignment on the strategic assumptions could cause greater alliance friction than the SMA stalemate and OPCON transition.

 

2. Human rights and nuclear talks

The Korea Times· by Tong Kim · December 28, 2020

I am loath to disagree with my good friend Tong Kim who has traveled to Pyongyang and interpreted for US senior leaders numerous times over many decades until he retired.  He probably has more experience with the Kim family regime than any American.

This conclusion troubles me: "While the North Korean human rights issue is important, it should be dealt with as a separate issue from that of denuclearization at an exclusive venue such as the U.N. Human Rights Council or in the forum of other advocacy organizations. Ultimately, the human rights problem may take longer to resolve than the nuclear issue."

I think human rights is more than an important issue. It is a moral imperative and a national security issue.  We cannot ignore it and we cannot shy away from it in the hopes that by not addressing it we will get a denuclearization agreement.  The denial of humans rights is critical to regime survival.  Again we should take a lesson from President Regan who, despite the contrary advice from his advisors, continued to emphasize human rights in the USSR with Soviet leaders even as arms control negotiations were taking place.  And there are practical reasons for emphasizing human rights: from educating the Korean people in the north about their universal human rights (which many do not understand are their inalienable rights) and giving them hope and preparing them for future unification under a United Republic of Korea to incorporating them into the information and influence activities strategy and the pressure campaign.  When we discuss the regime's nuclear program we reinforce Kim Jong-un's legitimacy and provide support to the Propaganda and Agitation Department.  But when we discuss human rights in north Korea we undermine the legitimacy of Kim Jong-un and we make him afraid.  We should keep in mind Dr. Jung Pak's key question:  Who does Kim Jong-un fear more:  The US or the Korean people living in the north?  It is the Korean people living in the north and armed with information and knowledge of their human rights.

 

3. Kim Yo Jong Is Ready to Become the First Woman Dictator in Modern History

The Daily Beast · by Donald Kirk· December 28, 2020

Don Kirk's analysis on the likelihood Kim Yo-joong succeeding her brother.

However, Bruce Klingner may be tempting her fate here.  The worst position to be in in north Korea is the "Number 2."  People who are suspected to be the number 2 have not fared well in the past.

Excerpt: 

“Formal titles aside, she’s “likely the second most powerful person in North Korea” - the one whom her brother “trusts the most,” said Klingner. Whether she would “become leader if her brother passed away suddenly remains unknown, but certainly that’s a much stronger possibility than only a few years ago.”

 

4. Kim Jong-un calls meeting as North Korea faces worst economic crisis since 1990s famine

SCMP · December 28, 2020

I cannot emphasize how important it is that we pay attention to indications and warnings of instability inside north Korea.  The conditions may become worse than what we saw during the Arduous March of the great famine of 1994-1996. 

I am not predicting regime collapse.  But I will say if regime collapse does occur, it will be catastrophic.

Kim Jong-un calls meeting as North Korea faces worst 

economic crisis since 1990s famine

• The leader will try to muster stronger public loyalty to him and lay out new 
• economic and foreign policies amid the Covid-19 pandemic
• If the virus does not ease, North Korea’s self-imposed lockdown will be extended, 
• which could destabilise food and exchange markets and trigger public panic

 

5. Biden has options with North Korea. Surrender mustn't be one | Opinion

Newsweek · by Abraham Cooper and Greg Scarlatoiu · December 28, 2020

An important OpEd from our Executive Director of HRNK, Greg Scarlatoiu and my fellow board member, Rabbi Cooper.

They counter Christine Ahn's naive views of north Korea and provide recommendations for including human rights in north Korean policy and strategy. 

Conclusion:

“The truth is that no one has the answer to bring peace to the Korean Peninsula. But caving to tyrants' demands isn't an option. North Korea is ruled by a regime that joined the Non-Proliferation Treaty, then withdrew and developed nuclear weapons. The Kim regime commits crimes against its own people and citizens of other countries. By entering a peace treaty and normalizing relations with a criminal regime in possession of nuclear weapons, the U.S. would be creating a precedent and blueprint for other tyrants: brutalize your subjects, develop weapons of mass destruction and the U.S. and the world will blink.

For all its monumental failings, the international system established after World War II has prevented another global conflagration. As enshrined in the preamble to the UN Charter, this system strives "to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war...to reaffirm faith in fundamental human rights, in the dignity and worth of the human person, in the equal rights of men and women and of nations large and small." Should sanctions on North Korea fail, unconditional surrender to a regime that denies human rights and threatens international peace and security is a prescription for disaster. It is a path that President Biden's team should never take. That path will be strewn with innocent victims of Kim's brutalities and bring the entire region to a dangerous, fully nuclearized dead end.”

 

6. New infections under 1,000 for 2nd day amid extended virus curbs

en.yna.co.kr · by 최경애 · December 28, 2020

Slightly good news.

 

7. USFK to begin COVID-19 vaccination Tuesday

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · December 28, 2020

Excerpt:

“Around 40 South Korean service members affiliated with the Korean Augmentation to the U.S. Army, known as KATUSA, are working at Allgood Army Community Hospital inside Camp Humphreys, and they could also be subject to the inoculation, officials said.

"Currently, working-level talks between the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA), USFK and the defense ministry are under way about the matter," ministry spokesperson Boo Seung-chan told a regular briefing.

USFK is expected to make an official request for formal consultations with the Seoul ministry, and the two sides will make a related decision accordingly, a ministry official said.”

 

8. N. Korea logs positive economic growth for 1st time in 3 years in 2019: data

en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · December 28, 2020

I doubt the  numbers improved in 2020 and likely will not improve in 2021.  And this is likely a "false economy" with China and Russia enabling sanctions evasion in 2019.

 

9. N.K. leader could skip New Year's Day speech ahead of party congress: experts

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · December 28, 2020

A guessing game for Korea watchers.  Will he give us only a written statement or will he make an address from his well appointed office or will he give a public speech from a podium?  Then how will he dress:  A western business suit or the traditional "mao suit." Let's start a pool.

 

10. N. Korea's paper emphasizes 'self-reliance' as 80-day campaign draws to end

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · December 28, 2020

Does anyone think the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime have changed in any way over the last seven decades?

It will be interesting to read the Propaganda and Agitation Department's assessment of the success of the 80-day campaign.

 

11. North Korea creates new camp for violators of COVID-19 quarantine rules

dailynk.com· by Mun Dong Hui · December 28, 2020

One thing north Korea is good at is building camps and incarcerating the Korean people in the north.

 

12. North Korean authorities order more personnel to help recovery efforts at Gomdok Mine

dailynk.com· by Jong So Yong · December 28, 2020

Note: The Geomdeok mine is one of the largest lead and zinc mines in North Korea and in the world.

 

13.  Preparations underway for major party event in North Korea

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Shim Kyu-Seok

How big will the event be?   Think of all the resources committed for this event and what they could do for the Koreans who are suffering in the north.  Again, Kim Jong-un's deliberate policy decisions are responsible for the suffering, not sanctions or the international community.  All the responsibility lies on the shoulders of Kim Jong-un.

 

14. Public disapproval of Moon's presidency close to 60 pct: Realmeter

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · December 28, 2020

While this may be a record high it is typical South Korean presidents toward the end of their single term always suffer from relatively high disapproval ratings.

 

15.  Quarter of recent local COVID-19 infections originate among family members: PM

en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · December 28, 2020

 

16.  S. Korea to maintain nuclear phaseout scheme, scale back coal power generation

en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · December 28, 2020

I think this is an ideological decision and I fear this will have long term negative consequences for South Korea's economic growth.

 

17. Mired in crises, North Korea's Kim to open big party meeting

AP · by Hyung-Jin Kim and Kim Tong-Hyung · December 28, 2020

When will the 8th Party Congress happen?  Will Kim give a New year's speech?  Enquiring minds want to know but Kim will keep us guessing.  But, on a serious note I concur that Kim is facing the most significant challenges of his 9 year reign. 

 

18. Construction on North Korea's answer to Ibiza 'grinds to a halt'

Stuff.co.nz · by Colin Freeman · December 27, 2020

 

 ----------

 

"Under democracy one party always devotes its chief energies to trying to prove that the other party is unfit to rule -- and both commonly succeed, and are right."

- H.L. Mencken 

 

"The best cure for the ills of democracy is more democracy."

- Edward Abbey

 

"The ballot is stronger than the bullet."

- Abraham Lincoln  

 

"The future is best decided by ballots, not bullets"

- Ronald Reagan 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Army Green Beret Charged in Fatal Shooting at Illinois Bowling Alley

2. A Quiet Life, a Thunderous Death, and a Nightmare That Shook Nashville

3. The Pentagon Could Use a Four-Star General on Top

4. Congress gives more power to DoD’s industrial base official

5. The Coming Global Backlash against China (Book Review)

6. ‘Very difficult to defend’: What happens if hackers are inside the Pentagon’s networks?

7. Gray-zone warfare: What can Taiwan do?

8. Rob Bole: USAGM is a unique, underutilized foreign policy tool

9. EDWARD LUCAS: Let's never glamourise traitor George Blake

10. Can Snowden Bamboozle Trump?

11. U.S. hits grim new milestones as coronavirus vaccines are rolled out

12. Scientists Design a Thermochromic Window That Turns Sunlight Into Electricity

13. Duterte’s ‘no vaccine, no VFA’ remark not a blackmail - Palace

14. Duterte should be 'more diplomatic', not threatening US for COVID-19 vaccines: Lacson

15. Waging war below the waves: Special Forces combat diver school is in session

16. Trapped by Thucydides? Updating the Strategic Canon for a Sinocentric Era

17. Assessment of the Use of Poisons as the Weapon of Choice in Putin’s Russia

18. A Military History of Political Wars

19. Petraeus, Crocker: Trump’s pardons to war criminals undermine rule of law, endanger U.S. troops

20. Why these Fox News loyalists have changed the channel to Newsmax

 

1. Army Green Beret Charged in Fatal Shooting at Illinois Bowling Alley

The New York Times · by Christina Morales and Bryan Pietsch · December 27, 2020

Another tragic event overshadowed by the Nashville bombing.  Video at the link.

 

2. A Quiet Life, a Thunderous Death, and a Nightmare That Shook Nashville

The New York Times · by Rick Rojas and Jamie McGee · December 27, 2020

The big question: Motive?

 

3. The Pentagon Could Use a Four-Star General on Top

WSJ · by Stephen Horwitz ·  December 27, 2020

 

4. Congress gives more power to DoD’s industrial base official

Defense News · by Aaron Mehta · December 28, 2020

Our industrial base is arguably our most important strategic asset.

 

5. The Coming Global Backlash against China (Book Review)

msn.com · by Helen Raleigh · December 27, 2020

Excerpt:  "But even the most powerful emperor can fly too close to the sun. The dissenting voices inside China are getting louder, while global backlash against China reached new heights in 2019. Then the 2020 coronavirus outbreak stripped the facade of Xi’s powerful image, revealed deep flaws within the CCP’s dictatorial political system, caused immense anger and frustration among Chinese people, brought serious detriments to China’s prestigious international image, and brought China’s seemingly unstoppable rise to a halt. As the prominent Hong Kong entrepreneur Jimmy Lai has written, “The more Mr. Xi pursues his authoritarian agenda, the more distrust he will sow at home and abroad. Far from transforming Beijing into the world’s leading superpower, his policies will instead keep China from taking its rightful place of honor in a peaceful, modern and integrated world.” Xi has misread the situation, overplayed his hand, and his aggressive policies at home and abroad have backfired, proving the saying: Those whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad."

 

6. ‘Very difficult to defend’: What happens if hackers are inside the Pentagon’s networks?

c4isrnet.com · by Andrew Eversden, Joe Gould, Mark Pomerleau · December 27, 2020

Have the classified networks been penetrated?  Or just the unclassified NIPRNET?

 

7. Gray-zone warfare: What can Taiwan do?

asiatimes.com · by Dave Makichuk · December 27, 2020

Excerpts:

“So, what is the solution?

According to Defense One military analysts, there are three major things that could be game-changing:

First, Taiwan must stop spending its scarce defense dollars on expensive conventional weapons. Last year, Taiwan spent more than US$2 billion on 108 M1AT Abrams main battle tanks.

...

Second, Taiwan needs to devote serious resources and political capital into making the innovative Overall Defense Concept a reality. The brainchild of former Admiral Lee, the ODC seeks to reorient the island’s defenses toward a genuinely asymmetric air- and sea-denial posture.

...

Third, Taiwan must overhaul its massive, but increasingly hollow, reserve force. In theory, it can call upon 2.5 million part-time soldiers.”

 

8. Rob Bole: USAGM is a unique, underutilized foreign policy tool

mountainrunner.us · by Rob Bole

I fear the reason is the political leadership's (political appointees) lack of understanding of the mission and capabilities of VOA, RFA, RFE, RL etc.

As an aside, I just had to say goodbye to a very good VOA journalist over the Christmas holiday whose Visa was not renewed due to USAGM policy.   He does not fall into any of the categories given for reasons for not renewing Visas.  He was just caught up in the blanket halting of renewals.  Truly a sad situation.

Key excerpts:

“In a 2016 interview, the President-elect said “it all gets down to the conduct of foreign policy being personal… All foreign policy is, is a logical extension of personal relationships, with a lot less information to act on.” For many countries, the Voice of America and other networks of USAGM represents the authentic voice of Americans and counters the propaganda of their own governments.

The availability of factual and balanced information from legitimate, or straight news, sources is ever more important as authoritarian leaders around the world have used the freedom of the digital age to create a powerful class of disinformation: the near dominance of opinion over facts, #fakenews, filter bubbles, corrosive memes, phishing, hacking and hate speech.

These autocratic governments have seen the Trump Administration validate their own tactics in U.S. domestic politics. This has further emboldened authoritarian leaders – from Bolsanaro in Brazil to Orban in Hungary – to close independent media and reduce free speech. The result is that USAGM has lost trust and influence as a voice for truth and an example of promoting democratic ideas, as was intended and the most significant test yet to USAGM’s purpose.”

 

9. Edward Lucas: Let's never glamourise traitor George Blake

Daily Mail · by Edward Lucas · December 27, 2020

We should keep this conclusion in mind about a true believer in communism.

 

10. Can Snowden Bamboozle Trump?

WSJ · by The Editorial Board

I certainly hope not.  This is one person who should never receive a pardon.  He has done tremendous damage to US national security even if he did expose some abuses.

Some of POTUS' closest advisors think he is a traitor.

 

11. U.S. hits grim new milestones as coronavirus vaccines are rolled out

Axios · by Axios

These are amazing and troubling statistics (in my opinion):

“The New York Times notes this means "at least 1 in 17" Americans have tested positive for the virus during the pandemic. The Census Bureau estimated the U.S. population to be about 330,750,000 for the last week of December, per CNN. That means the virus has killed roughly one in every 1,000 in the U.S.”

 

12. Scientists Design a Thermochromic Window That Turns Sunlight Into Electricity

mymodernmet.com · by Samantha Pires · December 27, 2020

If this works and ever becomes practical a "game changer" will be an understatement.  Then again who really believes in science or that science makes the world a better place? (note sarcasm - but I read so much dfrmo the science naysayers on social media.)

 

13. Duterte’s ‘no vaccine, no VFA’ remark not a blackmail - Palace

newsinfo.inquirer.net · by Krissy Aguilar · December 28, 2020

The Palace tris to walk back Duterte's idiotic remarks.

 

14.  Duterte should be 'more diplomatic', not threatening US for COVID-19 vaccines: Lacson

news.abs-cbn.com · by Katrina Domingo, ABS-CBN News

Senator Lacson knows the deal.

 

15.  Waging war below the waves: Special Forces combat diver school is in session

Washington Examiner · by Abraham Mahshie · December 26, 2020

 

16. Trapped by Thucydides? Updating the Strategic Canon for a Sinocentric Era

warontherocks.com · by John Sullivan · December 28, 2020

Conclusion: 

"Thucydides’ work has earned its exalted status in the study of strategic thought. However, analysis of other cultures’ struggles to achieve peace and security in roughly comparable eras of great power competition might stimulate new thinking on old problems. As Confucius once noted, “If you can revive the ancient and use it to understand the modern, then you’re worthy to be a teacher.” In that effort, we should resist limiting the scope of our inquiries to only Western historical examples. Through study and synthesis of the failures and shortcomings of all of our distant forefathers, we might gain wisdom to forge a new and better path forward."

 

17.  Assessment of the Use of Poisons as the Weapon of Choice in Putin’s Russia

divergentoptions.org · by Rylee Boyd · December 28, 2020

Conclusion:

"The use of poison as the weapon of choice against Moscow’s political enemies is a strategic choice as a weapon that causes more than just death or serious illness. While denying Russia its stores of chemical weapon stores and ensuring poison attacks can be attributed and followed by consequences, is an obvious solution, this is easier said than done."

 

18. A Military History of Political Wars

mwi.usma.edu · by Paul Barnes · December 28, 2020

Excerpt: 

“Blood, Metal and Dust is enigmatic. It is a history written without comprehensive access to either unreleased archives or the views of the opposing side, a commentary that on occasion lacks political balance; but it is an easy and compelling read that includes insights from some of the most influential US and British soldiers of the era. In those circumstances, it should be viewed cautiously as a valuable primer for anyone engaging with the subject of the ongoing wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, particularly for those interested in military adaptation, but it should not be accepted uncritically. Ben Barry’s military analysis is strong, as one might expect from a career soldier who commanded an armored infantry formation in Bosnia in the 1990s. Fundamentally, he understands and articulates the experience of war well; as the senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, he is also well placed to talk about military transformation. Overall, this book is highly recommended now, it articulates the zeitgeist; whether it remains relevant is, like the wars it narrates, yet to be determined.”

 

19.  Petraeus, Crocker: Trump’s pardons to war criminals undermine rule of law, endanger U.S. troops

Philadelphia Inquirer · by Trudy Rubin

This will go into the category of one of the biggest mistakes of the Trump presidency.

 

20. Why these Fox News loyalists have changed the channel to Newsmax

The Washington Post · December 27, 2020

These are cult like actions.

 

---------

"Under democracy one party always devotes its chief energies to trying to prove that the other party is unfit to rule -- and both commonly succeed, and are right."

- H.L. Mencken 

 

"The best cure for the ills of democracy is more democracy."

- Edward Abbey

 

"The ballot is stronger than the bullet."

- Abraham Lincoln  

 

"The future is best decided by ballots, not bullets"

- Ronald Reagan 

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Nashville bombing suspect's possible ties to 5G conspiracy theory investigated - reports

2. The Chinese Communist Party vs Western liberalism (Book Review)

3. Intelligence and Vietnam (II): Return of The Top Secret 1969 State Department Study

4. FBI: White supremacists plotted attack on US power grid

5. China at the center of Asia

6. Uighur Diaspora Hails Removal of ETIM From US Terror List

7. “We don’t need any more lines and arrows”

8. Duterte to US: No vaccine, no VFA

9. Opinion: A stable world order relies on terror groups being crushed in Africa

10. Indonesian terror chief reveals JI secrets

11. A ‘Bulletproof’ Criminal VPN Was Taken Down in a Global Sting

12. What Made George Blake Tick?

13. John le Carré: The Novelist Who Demystified Cold War Spying

14. The University as the Woke Mission Field: A Dissident Women's Studies Ph.D. Speaks Out

15. Perspective | We teach students how to understand the U.S., not to love it - or hate it

 

1. Nashville bombing suspect's possible ties to 5G conspiracy theory investigated - reports

Newsweek · by Ewan Palmer · December 27, 2020

Did another foolish conspiracy theory drive the Nashville bombing?

 

2. The Chinese Communist Party vs Western liberalism (Book Review)

asiatimes.com · by Scott Foster · December 25, 2020

Conclusion:

“And while Prestowitz thinks incoming President Biden’s first priority should be warning America and the world about the threat from China, domestic issues seem likely to take precedence.

Nevertheless, an advocate must advocate. To better understand both the challenge posed by China and the thoughts of an influential participant in the debate in Washington, DC, read this book.”

 

3. Intelligence and Vietnam (II): Return of The Top Secret 1969 State Department Study

nsarchive.gwu.edu · December 27, 2020

Some interesting history from the National Archives at George Washington University.  Students and researchers may be interested in this.  INR is one of the most unsung organizations in the intelligence community.

Other than East Asia Pacific, the two organizations in the State department I would have enjoyed working in are INR and Policy Planning.

 

4. FBI: White supremacists plotted attack on US power grid

AP · by Amy Forliti · December 22, 2020

 

5. China at the center of Asia

asiatimes.com · by Francesco Sisci · December 26, 2020

This is reprinted from nearly 20 years ago.  A fascinating read given today's world.

 

6. Uighur Diaspora Hails Removal of ETIM From US Terror List

voanews.com · by Reuters

 

7. “We don’t need any more lines and arrows”

carryingthegun.com · by DG · December 27, 2020

I strongly recommend listening to the three podcasts by seven of our Regiment's senior NCOs.  Two great quotes in the article below.

The podcasts can be accessed here. 

 

8. Duterte to US: No vaccine, no VFA

globalnation.inquirer.net · by Darryl John Esguerra · December 26, 2020

Do we give into blackmail?  I think Duterte is trying to cut off his nose to spite his face.  The Philippines is our longest standing treaty ally.

 

9. Opinion: A stable world order relies on terror groups being crushed in Africa

The Globe and Mail · by Robert Rotberg · December 26, 2020

Quite the provocative title that is surely open to debate.

Conclusion:

“The incoming U.S. administration should not shirk its already limited extensions of American military involvement, especially since al-Shabab has revealed its intentions to attack U.S. cities; earlier this month, a Kenyan Somali accused of planning to pilot an aircraft into buildings in the U.S. was brought to New York for trial.

Once again, containing a key Islamic State and al-Qaeda outpost is a critical goal of world order. Mr. Biden’s administration can improve chances of world peace, minimize hunger, and reduce flows of migrants and drugs into Europe by joining allies in keeping Islamists at bay, if not on the run. Now is not the time to pull back from Somalia, Mozambique, or the Sahel.”

 

10. Indonesian terror chief reveals JI secrets

au.news.yahoo.com · by Cindy Wockner and Komang Erviani· December 26, 2020

Some fascinating and important information revealed.

 

11. A ‘Bulletproof’ Criminal VPN Was Taken Down in a Global Sting

Wired · by Lily Hay Newman

Excerpt:  

“On Tuesday, Europol, the US Department of Justice, and other international law enforcement agencies announced a coordinated sting against a virtual private network, Safe-Inet, which is popular with ransomware groups, spearphishers, and stolen data vendors. The effort involved seizing three domains used to distribute the VPN—safe-inet.com, safe-inet.net and insorg.org—and neutering other parts of its infrastructure, so users can't access the service and visitors to the sites simply see law enforcement notifications of their removal. Officials did not provide details about which hacking groups used the VPN, but they said it specialized in “bulletproof” protection, meaning the VPN was tailored to supporting uninterrupted criminal campaigns and ignoring or attempting to diffuse abuse complaints and even law enforcement requests. “Criminals can run, but they cannot hide from law enforcement, and we will continue working tirelessly together with our partners to outsmart them,” Edvardas Šileris, head of Europol’s European Cybercrime Centre, said in a statement.”

 

12. What Made George Blake Tick?

spytalk.co · by David Charney

Another interesting read.

 

13. John le Carré: The Novelist Who Demystified Cold War Spying

Politico · by Michiko Kakutani · December 26, 2020

Some more Sunday reading for perspective.

 

14. The University as the Woke Mission Field: A Dissident Women's Studies Ph.D. Speaks Out

newdiscourses.com · Samantha Jones · December 22, 2020

A very provocative essay:

“Lastly, I have focused mostly on academia and education because this is the sector I know best, but I strongly urge everyone, from all walks of life, to embrace your sense of humor (a quality that is conspicuously absent in woke culture). Wokeness should continue to relentlessly mocked and parodied through meme culture (Andrew Doyle’s Titania McGrath is a great example). Just as important: Be courageous. Stand up for the beliefs that have made America a great country. If you hear people treating others as members of groups, articulate the importance of treating people as individuals. As Jordan Peterson put it, “The smallest minority is the individual.” If you encounter people treating others badly because of their gender or skin color, say that this behavior is morally wrong. If you see people attempting to “cancel” others, articulate why this is a terrible way to treat others. If you witness attacks on freedom of speech and advocacy of censorship, or if you meet people who are in favor of “hate speech” laws, or laws to combat “misinformation” (a code word for non-leftist ideas), articulate why freedom of speech is an absolutely essential and non-negotiable value. If you hear people discussing why they think socialism is great, take a stand for free markets and the prosperity they have produced. If you hear people calling for retributive justice and political violence, push against it and discuss why violence is never acceptable. If you encounter attacks on meritocracy, make a case for why merit is essential to the advancement of individuals and societies. I think a lot of liberals, like me, generally, if not naively, assumed that the liberal values underpinning America would simply continue throughout our lives, but these values are under attack and they need to be vigorously and unapologetically defended. Our civilization is at stake and the hour is late.”

 

15. Perspective | We teach students how to understand the U.S., not to love it - or hate it

The Washington Post · by Daniel Immerwahr · December 23, 2020

This should be the ideal but I fear there are extremists on both sides who want to generate feelings of hatred for our history and country, and on the other hand, feelings of blind patriotism.

But we should keep this conclusion in mind.  As I recall my history classes from high school and college (now more than forty years ago) I believe teachers and professors, like my high school history teacher Mr. Fischer, were trying to prepare me and my fellow students for living in our country with all its warts and greatness.

 

--------

Quotes of the Day:

 

"I hope that in this year to come, you make mistakes. Because if you are making mistakes, then you are making new things, trying new things, learning, living, pushing yourself, changing yourself, changing your world."

- Neil Gaiman

 

“Respect for ourselves guides our morals; respect for others guides our manners." 

- Laurence Sterne

 

"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."

- Isaac Asimov

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. FOLLOW-UP 29 experts forecast inter-Korean relations during Biden era

2. No public diplomatic events for Kim Jong-un in 2020

3. Rehearsals Fill Kim Il Sung Square on Saturday

4. [Heroes from afar] Dutch troops volunteered on Korean War front line

5.  New virus cases under 1,000, tougher pandemic rules under consideration  (South Korea)

6. Can South Korea lift the world’s lowest birth rate by offering cash incentives?

7. Is North Korea's silent leader planning a surprise for Biden?

 

1. FOLLOW-UP 29 experts forecast inter-Korean relations during Biden era

donga.com · December 26, 2020

So I have searched the CFR web site and communicated with Scott Snyder.  He is unaware of this report that he supposedly authored.  Note also Scott left the Center for US-Korea Policy at the Asia Foundation some 10 years ago. I also searched the Asia Foundation web site and found nothing. Neither of us are sure about what report the Donga Ilbo article below is referencing.  But I stand by our recommendations for the incoming Biden administration. 

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: David Maxwell <david.maxwell161@gmail.com>
Date: Sat, Dec 26, 2020 at 8:30 AM
Subject: 29 experts forecast inter-Korean relations during Biden era
To:

 

I have not found the book on the CFR website but when I do I will forward the link.  Scott did not ask my colleague Mathew Ha and me for our input. But here is a sneak preview of Mathew's and my assessment that will be coming out next month soon as part of a comprehensive FDD assessment of the last four years and recommendations for the way ahead.  Here are just the bullet recommendations that will be in our assessment.  You will have to wait for publication for the details.  We did base our recommendations on this excerpt from President elect Biden's OpEd he published in Yonhap on October 30th just before the election.  Note this is the only Oped I am aware of that he published in a foreign new publication before the election which I think is a positive sign of the importance he places on the ROK/US alliance to US national interests.

 

“Words matter – and a president’s words matter even more. As President, I'll stand with South Korea, strengthening our alliance to safeguard peace in East Asia and beyond, rather than extorting Seoul with reckless threats to remove our troops. I'll engage in principled diplomacy and keep pressing toward a denuclearized North Korea and a unified Korean Peninsula, while working to reunite Korean Americans separated from loved ones in North Korea for decades.”^[1] 

 

·      Develop an Alliance Strategy for the Korean Peninsula: (One key point: Through the existing State Department-Ministry of Foreign Affairs strategy working group reassess strategic assumptions about the nature of the Kim family regime so the alliance recognizes Kim’s determination to dominate the Korean peninsula.  Also focus on solving the "Korea question.")

·      Impose a “maximum pressure 2.0” campaign integrating not only sanctions, but also other critical levers of U.S. and allied power: (especially including information and influence activities)

·      Make human rights a priority:

·      Despite past failures due to Kim Jong-un’s recalcitrance, continue efforts to establish a substantive working-level dialogue between the United States and North Korea: 

·      Encourage Chinese and Russian support for denuclearization while holding them accountable for ongoing violations of UN sanctions they claim to support: 

·      Strengthen allied military posture: 

·      Stabilize the Special Measures Agreement (cost sharing) process:

·      Coordinate a comprehensive strategy for North Korean cyber-attacks:

 

2. No public diplomatic events for Kim Jong-un in 2020

The Korea Times· by Do Je-hae · December 27, 2020

But what will 2021 bring?

Perhaps for Kim it is summits or nothing.

 

3. Rehearsals Fill Kim Il Sung Square on Saturday

38north.org · by Martyn Williams · December 26, 2020

Something for us to look forward to while we make our guesses as to what might happen and what is Kim Jong-un's intent.

 

4. [Heroes from afar] Dutch troops volunteered on Korean War front line

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Esther Chung · December 27, 2020

Thanks to and respect for our Dutch Allies.  We should be pleased that the Joongang Ilbo is publishing these retrospectives because it helps to reinforce the importance of the United Nations Command as well as our alliances.

 

5.  New virus cases under 1,000, tougher pandemic rules under consideration

en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · December 27, 2020

 

6. Can South Korea lift the world’s lowest birth rate by offering cash incentives?

SCMP · by David D. Lee · December 27, 2020

This is a major national security threat to South Korea.

 

7. Is North Korea's silent leader planning a surprise for Biden?

asia.nikkei.com

All warfare is based on deception, perhaps particularly political warfare which of course is what Kim Jong-un is conducting.

More speculation on what the Biden administration strategy may be.

----------

 

"I hope that in this year to come, you make mistakes. Because if you are making mistakes, then you are making new things, trying new things, learning, living, pushing yourself, changing yourself, changing your world."

- Neil Gaiman

 

“Respect for ourselves guides our morals; respect for others guides our manners." 

- Laurence Sterne

 

"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way  through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."

- Isaac Asimov

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Japan official, calling Taiwan 'red line,' urges Biden to 'be strong'

2. Opinion | China’s atrocities in Tibet are growing too big to ignore

3. China's Economy Set to Overtake U.S. Earlier Due to Covid Fallout

4. George Blake: Soviet Cold War spy and former MI6 officer dies in Russia

5. Commentary: Facing 21st century security challenges in Philippines

6. US military school West Point rocked by major cheating scandal

7. Opinion | Leave the Foreign Service to the Pros

8. Russian hackers compromised Microsoft cloud customers through third party, putting emails and other data at risk

9. Is Amazon the next anti-trust target after Alibaba?

10. Could a US-led Quad add up to an Asian NATO against China?

11. U.S.-Trained Afghan Fighter Pilot Is in Hiding After Being Denied Safe Passage

12. Ethics in Special Operations and the Joint Special Operations Forces Senior Enlisted Academy

13. Typhon’s Song: Examining Russia’s Employment of COVID-19 Disinformation to Generate Disruptive Effects

14. Vaccine Rollout Presenting States With Questions Over Race and Access

15. Misinformation about the vaccine could be worse than disinformation about the elections

16. Social Media and the Problem of the Iceberg Bias

17. The CDC’s failed race against covid-19: A threat underestimated and a test overcomplicated

18. Why We Can’t Stop Longing for the Good Old Days

 

1. Japan official, calling Taiwan 'red line,' urges Biden to 'be strong'

taiwannews.com.tw · by Ju-min Park

Excerpts:

“There’s a red line in Asia - China and Taiwan,” Nakayama said, citing a red line that former president Barack Obama declared over Syria’s use of chemical weapons - a line Damascus then crossed. Biden was Obama’s vice president.

“How will Joe Biden in the White House react in any case if China crosses this red line?” said Nakayama, who attended a memorial for the late former Taiwanese president Lee Teng-hui in August, before taking his defence position. “The United States is the leader of the democratic countries. I have a strong feeling to say: America, be strong!”

 

2. Opinion | China’s atrocities in Tibet are growing too big to ignore

The Washington Post · by Josh Rogin · December 24, 2020

It is not just Xinjiang.  Excerpt: “When it comes to human rights violations in China, Tibet was Patient Zero,” Lobsang Sangay, the president of the Tibetan government in exile, known as the Central Tibetan Administration, told me during a visit to Washington last week. “Xi Jinping is now reintroducing labor camps back into Tibet . . . what’s new is the speed and the scale of it and the military style that they are bringing to it.”

 

3. China's Economy Set to Overtake U.S. Earlier Due to Covid Fallout

Bloomberg · by Lizzy Burden · December 26, 2020

Graphics at the link.  

 

4. George Blake: Soviet Cold War spy and former MI6 officer dies in Russia

BBC · by News

I wonder if he left behind any writings on his thoughts of the USSR collapsing and losing the Cold War.

 

5. Commentary: Facing 21st century security challenges in Philippines

philstar.com · by Renato Cruz De Castro

An interesting Philippine perspective.  I recall in 2001. just after 9-11, when I participated in the TCAV assessment of the Philippines led by LTG (RET) Fridovich, that when the Philippine government provided their national security strategy and policy for assessment there was no mention of China as a national security threat.  

 

6. US military school West Point rocked by major cheating scandal

chinadaily.com.cn

Interestingly they do not list MacArthur among the notable alumni but I guess it is because they are only republishing an AFP report and this is not a "China perspective."  I wonder if we will see anything from China in their "opinion pages."

 

7. Opinion | Leave the Foreign Service to the Pros

The New York Times · by Carol Shurman · December 25, 2020

Three interesting letters to the editor from the NY Times.

 

8. Russian hackers compromised Microsoft cloud customers through third party, putting emails and other data at risk

The Washington Post· by Ellen Nakashima · December 25, 2020

Excerpts:

“Our investigation of recent attacks has found incidents involving abuse of credentials to gain access, which can come in several forms,” Jeff Jones, Microsoft’s senior director for communications, said. “We have still not identified any vulnerabilities or compromise of Microsoft product or cloud services.”

The troubling revelation comes several days after Microsoft’s president, Brad Smith, said the Fortune 500 company had not seen any customers breached through its services, including the vaunted Azure cloud platform used by governments, major corporations and universities worldwide.

“I think we can give you a blanket answer that affirmatively states, no, we are not aware of any customers being attacked through Microsoft’s cloud services or any of our other services, for that matter, by this hacker,” Smith told The Washington Post on Dec. 17.

...

“I want a throat to choke on this thing — I’m angry that they got us, but the reality is the Russians pulled off a highly targeted, complex and probably expensive cyber intrusion that was a sophisticated espionage operation,” said Rep. Jim Langevin (D-R.I.), a member of the House Armed Services Committee who co-chairs the Congressional Cybersecurity Caucus.

The breaches are akin to the Russians placing moles in multiple places in high levels of the government, Langevin said, adding that the U.S. government should respond as it would to a physical espionage campaign. “We could expel diplomats or suspected spies, or perhaps impose sanctions,” he said. “But we also want to be careful that we don’t destabilize the Internet or our own espionage operations.”

 

9. Is Amazon the next anti-trust target after Alibaba?

asiatimes.com · by David P. Goldman · December 24, 2020

An interesting comparison.

Excerpts:

“But whatever the personality or political issues may have been, the underlying economic problem in China is the same as the one that US and European regulators are trying to address.

“Amazon’s pattern of exploiting sellers, enabled by its market dominance, raises serious competition concerns,” the House Committee claimed in an October 2020 report. The House allegations closely resemble the concerns of Chinese regulators, who have focused on Alibaba’s policy of forcing merchants to use its platform exclusively, among other alleged abuses, including selling below cost to crush rivals.”

 

10. Could a US-led Quad add up to an Asian NATO against China?

scmp.com · by Rachel Zhang· December 26, 2020

I think it is a false comparison. Rather than trying to make the Quad like NATO we need to develop the Quad based on the unique collective security and collective economic protection requirements that exist in Asia.  Economic protection against a mutual predatory economic threat was never a concern for NATO. That alone makes the Quad very different than NATO.  In addition, it is unlikely that there will ever be a collective security military organization built along the lines of NATO in Asia.  But NATO falls into the same category as the Marshall Plan and Goldwater-Nichols - we need a Marshall Plan for this problem and a Goldwater Nichols for that problem and we a NATO in Asia.

 

11. U.S.-Trained Afghan Fighter Pilot Is in Hiding After Being Denied Safe Passage

WSJ · by Sune Engel Rasmussen

 

12. Ethics in Special Operations and the Joint Special Operations Forces Senior Enlisted Academy

Small Wars Journal· by Christopher Hughes, John Labuz, Joseph Long, and Kari A. Thyne

 

13. Typhon’s Song: Examining Russia’s Employment of COVID-19 Disinformation to Generate Disruptive Effects

Small Wars Journal · by Matthew A. Lauder,

 

14. Vaccine Rollout Presenting States With Questions Over Race and Access

WSJ · by Ian Lovett and Jimmy Vielkind· December 26, 2020

Excerpts:

“But as the first doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are being administered across the country, states are still wrestling with how and when the vaccine will be made available to those hard-hit communities.

Some states say they are focused on outreach, in the hopes of making sure that people of color aren’t left behind as the vaccine is distributed more widely.”

 

15. Misinformation about the vaccine could be worse than disinformation about the elections

Politico· December 21, 2020

An ominous warning.  Election disinformation has been unbelievably rampant and effective.

 

16. Social Media and the Problem of the Iceberg Bias

fromthegreennotebook.com · by Joe Byerly · December 26, 2020

Some useful food for thought.

Conclusion:

“Take this article for example, every word I typed in the preceding paragraph was carefully chosen.

As we head into a new year, I’m writing this to remind all of us that before we form positive or negative opinions of others, we should get to know them first. We should also avoid using social media as a mirror for our lives. We do an injustice to ourselves when we compare our own icebergs to the sheer veneer of gleaming, snow-covered ice other people choose to show. Finally, I charge you to think about your brand and the reality you’re willing to lay bare. Do you include any of the sharp, treacherous edges that lie just below the surface?”

 

17. The CDC’s failed race against covid-19: A threat underestimated and a test overcomplicated

The Washington Post· by David Wilman · December 26, 2020

Yes, mistakes have been made. The key question is whether we learn from them?

 

18. Why We Can’t Stop Longing for the Good Old Days

WSJ · by Johan Norberg

We can only move forward. We cannot go backwards.

Excerpts:

“…dangerous to those who lived through them? One possibility is that we know we survived past dangers—otherwise we wouldn’t be here—so in retrospect they seem smaller. But we can never be certain we will solve the problems we are facing today. Radio didn’t end up ruining the younger generation, but maybe the smartphone will. We didn’t destroy the planet with nuclear weapons during the Cold War, but who can say for sure that we won’t do it this time around?

Another reason is that historical nostalgia is often colored by personal nostalgia. When were the good old days? Was it, by chance, the incredibly short period in human history when you happened to be young? A U.S. poll found that people born in the 1930s and 1940s thought the 1950s was America’s best decade, while those born in the 1960s and 1970s preferred the 1980s. In the 1980s, the popular TV show “Happy Days” was set in a nostalgic version of the 1950s; today, the popular series “Stranger Things” fondly conjures the fashion and music of the 1980s.

 

--------

 

"It is no weakness for the wisest man to learn when he is wrong." 

- Sophocles

 

 “Returning hate for hate multiplies hate, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate, only love can do that.” 

- Martin Luther King, Jr.

 

 "When you reach the end of your rope, tie a knot in it and hang on."

 - Franklin D. Roosevelt

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. South Korea reports record surge on Christmas Day

2. Undeclared North Korea: The Kal-gol Missile Operating Base

3. N. Korean leader makes fewest public appearances this year: data

4. Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea: What's Ahead for the Biden Administration?

5. After early success, S. Korea sleepwalks into virus crisis

6. First shipment of COVID-19 vaccine arrives for U.S. troops in S. Korea

7. Authorities in talks about KATUSA troops getting USFK's COVID-19 vaccine: official

8. U.S. Human Rights Commission chair slams S. Korean ruling party

9. Kim Jong Un smirks carried away in triumph

10. 29 experts forecast inter-Korean relations during Biden era

11. North Korea HORROR: Kim using re-education camps to test chemical weapons on Christians

12. Korea's Artificial Sun Sets World Record After Running At 100 Million Degrees For 2 Seconds

13. China probes S. Korean tanker over suspicion of smuggling refined oil: embassy

 

1. South Korea reports record surge on Christmas Day

asiatimes.com · by AT Contributor · December 25, 2020

Excerpt:

“Up to 70% of the fresh cases came from the greater Seoul area, home to half the country's 52 million people.

In an attempt to contain the rising infection numbers, from Wednesday private social gatherings of more than four people in the greater Seoul area were banned until January 3 by officials.

South Korea reports record surge on Christmas Day

A record 1,241 new infections were recorded on Friday, mostly from the greater Seoul region.”

 

2. Undeclared North Korea: The Kal-gol Missile Operating Base

beyondparallel.csis.org · by Joseph Bermudez · December 24, 2020

The latest analysis from CSIS and Joe Bermudez. 

See the entire report with Imagery and graphics are at the link.   

I will leave it to the missile experts to assess.  However, one key point that I think we should take away from this.  The investment it appears the north is making in these missile capabilities clearly indicates the north is focusing on continued development of offensive warfighting capabilities.  This supports the regime's objective to be able to attack the South and dominate the peninsula under the rule of Kim Jong-un to ensure survival of the Kim family regime.  

When we talk about the end of war declaration or a peace agreement we must consider north Korean military capabilities and probable intent despite what they say at the negotiating table.

 

3. N. Korean leader makes fewest public appearances this year: data

en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · December 25, 2020

It was an unusual year.  What was he doing during his relatively prolonged absences? 

 

4. Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea: What's Ahead for the Biden Administration?

usip.org· by Frank Aurm and Joseph Yun · December 25, 2020

This is the key point: "Even if Biden is open to meetings without preconditions, there is no guarantee that Pyongyang will engage since it has rebuffed this exact approach from the Trump administration since October 2019."

 

5. After early success, S. Korea sleepwalks into virus crisis

AP · by Kim Tong-Hyung · December 26, 2020

A good overview of the challenges in South Korea, what might have gone wrong and why lies ahead.

 

6. First shipment of COVID-19 vaccine arrives for U.S. troops in S. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 김광태 · December 25, 2020

On Christmas Day.  A Christmas present for USFK.

 

7. Authorities in talks about KATUSA troops getting USFK's COVID-19 vaccine: official

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · December 26, 2020

Previous reports made it seem like it was already confirmed that KATUSAs and Korean civilians working for USFK would receive the vaccine.  I hope we are going to provide it to them. I cannot imagine the Korean military or government denying this for them and I cannot imagine us not vaccinating those who are going to fight side by side US forces in US units.  Would we deny blood or lifesaving medical treatment to a KATUSA if he was wounded in combat if we were at war with north Korea?  Of course technically there is still a state of war on the Korean peninsula that has only been temporarily suspended when both sides agreed to the Armistice.

 

8. U.S. Human Rights Commission chair slams S. Korean ruling party

donga.com· December 26, 2020

Alliance friction is going to rise significantly over the poor decision by the Korean National Assembly and Moon Administration to enact the "Leaflet ban law" AKA the "Kim Yo-jong law."  I do not think the Moon administration understands how severely it has miscalculated .  And what is even more egregious than the violation of human r rights and personal liberty is the rationale for the law - the stated rationale is to protect Korean citizens in the frontline area and to prevent war.  The unstated reason is to engender a positive response from the regime for north-South engagement and even a return to nuclear talks.  In actuality the north views the "Kim Yo-jong law" as a success for its blackmail diplomacy and political warfare strategy and it will be doubling down.

And it has the added benefit of forcing not only a wedge in the ROK/US alliance but making South Korea an outlier among the community of democracies.

 

9. Kim Jong Un smirks carried away in triumph

donga.com· December 26, 2020

Keep the first paragraph in mind.  The Moon administration believes it has cleared the way for north-South talks by passing the "Kim Yo-jong law."  My assessment is if the north does engage the South it will be to make even greater demands on the ROK for more concessions beyond the law.  The regime believes its blackmail diplomacy will get the concessions it needs.

The buried lede is the proposal by Jung and endorsed by MOU Lee that the ROK/US military training in February/March should be suspended or reduced.   The regime is saying, "wow, we do not even have to make this demand, the MOU is anticipating what we will demand and willing to give it to us without asking - we can now move on to the next demands." 

There is danger ahead.

 

10. 29 experts forecast inter-Korean relations during Biden era

donga.com· December 26, 2020

I have not found the book on the CFR website but when I do I will forward the link.  Scott did not ask my colleague Mathew Ha and me for our input. But here is a sneak preview of Mathew's and my assessment that will be coming out next month soon as part of a comprehensive FDD assessment of the last four years and recommendations for the way ahead.  Here are just the bullet recommendations that will be in our assessment.  You will have to wait for publication for the details.  We did base our recommendations on this excerpt from President elect Biden's OpEd he published in Yonhap on October 30th just before the election.  Note this is the only Oped I am aware of that he published in a foreign new publication before the election which I think is a positive sign of the importance he places on the ROK/US alliance to US national interests.

"Words matter - and a president's words matter even more. As President, I'll stand with South Korea, strengthening our alliance to safeguard peace in East Asia and beyond, rather than extorting Seoul with reckless threats to remove our troops. I'll engage in principled diplomacy and keep pressing toward a denuclearized North Korea and a unified Korean Peninsula, while working to reunite Korean Americans separated from loved ones in North Korea for decades."[1] 

• Develop an Alliance Strategy for the Korean Peninsula: (One key point: Through the existing State Department-Ministry of Foreign Affairs strategy working group reassess strategic assumptions about the nature of the Kim family regime so the alliance recognizes Kim's determination to dominate the Korean peninsula.  Also focus on solving the "Korea question.")
• Impose a "maximum pressure 2.0" campaign integrating not only sanctions, but also other critical levers of U.S. and allied power: (especially including information and influence activities)
• Make human rights a priority:
• Despite past failures due to Kim Jong-un's recalcitrance, continue efforts to establish a substantive working-level dialogue between the United States and North Korea: 
• Encourage Chinese and Russian support for denuclearization while holding them accountable for ongoing violations of UN sanctions they claim to support: 
• Strengthen allied military posture: 
• Stabilize the Special Measures Agreement (cost sharing) process:
• Coordinate a comprehensive strategy for North Korean cyber-attacks:

 

11. North Korea HORROR: Kim using re-education camps to test chemical weapons on Christians

Express · by Bill McLoughlin · December 26, 2020

I have rhetorically asked how the north perfected the VX assassination of Kim Jong-nam.  My guess is they tested the dosage and application techniques on prisoners in the gulags.  This is another reason why human rights is a national security issue in addition to being a moral imperative.

 

12. Korea's Artificial Sun Sets World Record After Running At 100 Million Degrees For 2 Seconds

unilad.co.uk

If South Korea perfects this I think "game changing" could be an understatement.

 

13. China probes S. Korean tanker over suspicion of smuggling refined oil: embassy

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · December 26, 2020

The old "Admit nothing, deny everything, make counter accusations."   Is this the Chinese making counter accusations?

But both the Chinese and South Koreans say this is unrelated to north Korean sanctions.  There must be more to the story.

 

----------

 

"It is no weakness for the wisest man to learn when he is wrong." 

- Sophocles

 

 "Returning hate for hate multiplies hate, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate, only love can do that." 

- Martin Luther King, Jr.

 

 "When you reach the end of your rope, tie a knot in it and hang on."

 - Franklin D. Roosevelt