News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. South Korea reports record surge on Christmas Day
2. Undeclared North Korea: The Kal-gol Missile Operating Base
3. N. Korean leader makes fewest public appearances this year: data
4. Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea: What's Ahead for the Biden Administration?
5. After early success, S. Korea sleepwalks into virus crisis
6. First shipment of COVID-19 vaccine arrives for U.S. troops in S. Korea
7. Authorities in talks about KATUSA troops getting USFK's COVID-19 vaccine: official
8. U.S. Human Rights Commission chair slams S. Korean ruling party
9. Kim Jong Un smirks carried away in triumph
10. 29 experts forecast inter-Korean relations during Biden era
11. North Korea HORROR: Kim using re-education camps to test chemical weapons on Christians
12. Korea's Artificial Sun Sets World Record After Running At 100 Million Degrees For 2 Seconds
13. China probes S. Korean tanker over suspicion of smuggling refined oil: embassy
1. South Korea reports record surge on Christmas Day
asiatimes.com · by AT Contributor · December 25, 2020
Excerpt:
“Up to 70% of the fresh cases came from the greater Seoul area, home to half the country's 52 million people.
In an attempt to contain the rising infection numbers, from Wednesday private social gatherings of more than four people in the greater Seoul area were banned until January 3 by officials.
South Korea reports record surge on Christmas Day
A record 1,241 new infections were recorded on Friday, mostly from the greater Seoul region.”
2. Undeclared North Korea: The Kal-gol Missile Operating Base
beyondparallel.csis.org · by Joseph Bermudez · December 24, 2020
The latest analysis from CSIS and Joe Bermudez.
See the entire report with Imagery and graphics are at the link.
I will leave it to the missile experts to assess. However, one key point that I think we should take away from this. The investment it appears the north is making in these missile capabilities clearly indicates the north is focusing on continued development of offensive warfighting capabilities. This supports the regime's objective to be able to attack the South and dominate the peninsula under the rule of Kim Jong-un to ensure survival of the Kim family regime.
When we talk about the end of war declaration or a peace agreement we must consider north Korean military capabilities and probable intent despite what they say at the negotiating table.
3. N. Korean leader makes fewest public appearances this year: data
en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · December 25, 2020
It was an unusual year. What was he doing during his relatively prolonged absences?
4. Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea: What's Ahead for the Biden Administration?
usip.org· by Frank Aurm and Joseph Yun · December 25, 2020
This is the key point: "Even if Biden is open to meetings without preconditions, there is no guarantee that Pyongyang will engage since it has rebuffed this exact approach from the Trump administration since October 2019."
5. After early success, S. Korea sleepwalks into virus crisis
AP · by Kim Tong-Hyung · December 26, 2020
A good overview of the challenges in South Korea, what might have gone wrong and why lies ahead.
6. First shipment of COVID-19 vaccine arrives for U.S. troops in S. Korea
en.yna.co.kr · by 김광태 · December 25, 2020
On Christmas Day. A Christmas present for USFK.
7. Authorities in talks about KATUSA troops getting USFK's COVID-19 vaccine: official
en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · December 26, 2020
Previous reports made it seem like it was already confirmed that KATUSAs and Korean civilians working for USFK would receive the vaccine. I hope we are going to provide it to them. I cannot imagine the Korean military or government denying this for them and I cannot imagine us not vaccinating those who are going to fight side by side US forces in US units. Would we deny blood or lifesaving medical treatment to a KATUSA if he was wounded in combat if we were at war with north Korea? Of course technically there is still a state of war on the Korean peninsula that has only been temporarily suspended when both sides agreed to the Armistice.
8. U.S. Human Rights Commission chair slams S. Korean ruling party
donga.com· December 26, 2020
Alliance friction is going to rise significantly over the poor decision by the Korean National Assembly and Moon Administration to enact the "Leaflet ban law" AKA the "Kim Yo-jong law." I do not think the Moon administration understands how severely it has miscalculated . And what is even more egregious than the violation of human r rights and personal liberty is the rationale for the law - the stated rationale is to protect Korean citizens in the frontline area and to prevent war. The unstated reason is to engender a positive response from the regime for north-South engagement and even a return to nuclear talks. In actuality the north views the "Kim Yo-jong law" as a success for its blackmail diplomacy and political warfare strategy and it will be doubling down.
And it has the added benefit of forcing not only a wedge in the ROK/US alliance but making South Korea an outlier among the community of democracies.
9. Kim Jong Un smirks carried away in triumph
donga.com· December 26, 2020
Keep the first paragraph in mind. The Moon administration believes it has cleared the way for north-South talks by passing the "Kim Yo-jong law." My assessment is if the north does engage the South it will be to make even greater demands on the ROK for more concessions beyond the law. The regime believes its blackmail diplomacy will get the concessions it needs.
The buried lede is the proposal by Jung and endorsed by MOU Lee that the ROK/US military training in February/March should be suspended or reduced. The regime is saying, "wow, we do not even have to make this demand, the MOU is anticipating what we will demand and willing to give it to us without asking - we can now move on to the next demands."
There is danger ahead.
10. 29 experts forecast inter-Korean relations during Biden era
donga.com· December 26, 2020
I have not found the book on the CFR website but when I do I will forward the link. Scott did not ask my colleague Mathew Ha and me for our input. But here is a sneak preview of Mathew's and my assessment that will be coming out next month soon as part of a comprehensive FDD assessment of the last four years and recommendations for the way ahead. Here are just the bullet recommendations that will be in our assessment. You will have to wait for publication for the details. We did base our recommendations on this excerpt from President elect Biden's OpEd he published in Yonhap on October 30th just before the election. Note this is the only Oped I am aware of that he published in a foreign new publication before the election which I think is a positive sign of the importance he places on the ROK/US alliance to US national interests.
"Words matter - and a president's words matter even more. As President, I'll stand with South Korea, strengthening our alliance to safeguard peace in East Asia and beyond, rather than extorting Seoul with reckless threats to remove our troops. I'll engage in principled diplomacy and keep pressing toward a denuclearized North Korea and a unified Korean Peninsula, while working to reunite Korean Americans separated from loved ones in North Korea for decades."[1]
- Develop an Alliance Strategy for the Korean Peninsula: (One key point: Through the existing State Department-Ministry of Foreign Affairs strategy working group reassess strategic assumptions about the nature of the Kim family regime so the alliance recognizes Kim's determination to dominate the Korean peninsula. Also focus on solving the "Korea question.")
- Impose a "maximum pressure 2.0" campaign integrating not only sanctions, but also other critical levers of U.S. and allied power: (especially including information and influence activities)
- Make human rights a priority:
- Despite past failures due to Kim Jong-un's recalcitrance, continue efforts to establish a substantive working-level dialogue between the United States and North Korea:
- Encourage Chinese and Russian support for denuclearization while holding them accountable for ongoing violations of UN sanctions they claim to support:
- Strengthen allied military posture:
- Stabilize the Special Measures Agreement (cost sharing) process:
- Coordinate a comprehensive strategy for North Korean cyber-attacks:
11. North Korea HORROR: Kim using re-education camps to test chemical weapons on Christians
Express · by Bill McLoughlin · December 26, 2020
I have rhetorically asked how the north perfected the VX assassination of Kim Jong-nam. My guess is they tested the dosage and application techniques on prisoners in the gulags. This is another reason why human rights is a national security issue in addition to being a moral imperative.
12. Korea's Artificial Sun Sets World Record After Running At 100 Million Degrees For 2 Seconds
If South Korea perfects this I think "game changing" could be an understatement.
13. China probes S. Korean tanker over suspicion of smuggling refined oil: embassy
en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · December 26, 2020
The old "Admit nothing, deny everything, make counter accusations." Is this the Chinese making counter accusations?
But both the Chinese and South Koreans say this is unrelated to north Korean sanctions. There must be more to the story.
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- Martin Luther King, Jr.
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- Franklin D. Roosevelt