News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. Biegun to visit Seoul for talks on alliance, N. Korea
2. CFC commander discusses OPCON transfer with Korean officials
3. N. Korea publicly executes 2 people for quarantine violations
4. Korea to go into lockdown for rest of year
5. De facto one party rule in South Korea, the Democratic Party of Korea rushes through bills harmful to human rights, free speech, national security, economy
6. Is North Korea facing an economic and health care crisis?
7. Former cybersecurity chief says Russia, China, Iran and North Korea are trying to steal coronavirus vaccine IP
8. North Korean trade hit more by COVID-19 than sanctions
9. A test of Japan–South Korea relations
10. The seven surpluses
11. Jeffrey Prescott, Joe Biden aide noted for experience and calm, may become point person on China
12. Washington's top North Korea envoy to visit Seoul this week
13. 17 USFK-affiliated people test positive for new coronavirus
14. U.S. defense bill on Huawei puts Seoul in a pickle
1. Biegun to visit Seoul for talks on alliance, N. Korea
Yonhap News Agency · 김승연 · December 7, 2020
My thoughts on this week's trip:
- Expect this to be North Korean Special Representee and DEPSECSTATE Steve Biegun's final trip to Seoul.
- The purpose is likely to be twofold: the Koreans will likely honor him for the great work he has done for the ROK/US alliance and he will discuss continuity of US North Korean policy and the likelihood of North Korean provocation during the vulnerable transition period as well as the likely ROK and US responses to such provocation (these are likely to be confidential discussions and possible alliance courses of action will not be revealed for obvious reasons).
- There are a number of key alliance issues to be discussed:
- The current SMA stalemate (equitable cost sharing for US forces)
- The ROK desire for streamlined sanctions waivers for humanitarian relief in North Korea and other sanctions relief proposals by the ROK to facilitate North-South engagement
- The crises in North Korea: COVID mitigation measures and effects of a potential outbreak, the collapsed economy, the humanitarian crisis facing the Korean people in the North due to the natural disasters this past summer.
- Ensuring the continuity of MOFA-DOS strategy working group established by Mr. Biegun and Ambassador Lee Do-Hoon in 2018. He will want to counter the criticism of this working group based on misunderstanding of its focus and efforts and political agendas from the progressives in the Moon administration.
- In addition to the potential for North Korea provocations, they will exchange assessments on the North Korean way ahead on denuclearization talks and how the regime may react to a new US administration.
- He will likely be asked to discuss troop withdrawals following the CJCS General Milley's comments about re-evaluating all US overseas presence and in particular the permanent stationed US troops overseas with families.
- He may also address other issues such as OPCON transition and access to training areas for US forces as well as the Quad/Quad Plus and the alignment of the US strategy of a free and open INDOPACIFC and the ROK's new southern strategy.
- He will be pressed to provide his assessment of any likely policy shift by the incoming administration. I expect he will not provide such an assessment but instead will recommend continuity, stating the importance of our linchpin alliance and the need to sustain sanctions and pressure on the regime because any premature sanctions relief will be considered a victory for the regime's blackmail diplomacy. He will recommend continuing contact with the North to conduct substantive working level negotiations on denuclearization.
2. CFC commander discusses OPCON transfer with Korean officials
Donga-Ilbo · Kyu-Jin Shin · December 7, 2020
Kudos to the headline editor. This is one of the few articles that calls General Abrams by his most important title, the Commander of the ROK/US CFC. This is because the ROK/US CFC is the command charged by both countries with deterrence and defense and it is equally "co-owed" by both countries (and overseen by the Military Committee).
There are some interesting comments in this article about General Abrams.
The OPCON transition issue and US forces access to training areas are two of the most important alliance issues that must be worked, along with the SMA stalemate of course. But the commander (whether a US commander or a ROK commander of CFC) has to have his primary focus on the readiness of the command so that he can accomplish the tasks given to him by both governments.
3. N. Korea publicly executes 2 people for quarantine violations
Korea Times · Yi Whan-woo · December 7, 2020
A smuggler and a currency exchange broker. Yes, they were in violation of quarantine measures, but the regime is exploiting COVID to crackdown on anti-regime activities: uncontrolled market activity (supported by smuggling) and the use of foreign currency.
4. Korea to go into lockdown for rest of year
Chosun Ilbo · Yang Ji-ho & Yang Seung-joo · December 7, 2020
Wow. Drastic measures here.
5. De facto one party rule in South Korea, the Democratic Party of Korea rushes through bills harmful to human rights, free speech, national security, economy
East Asia Research Center · Tara O · December 5, 2020
Analysis from Dr. Tara O on South Korean legislation. I do like the opposition's name for the bill banning leaflets and information going to the North: “Kim Yo-jong’s Decree Law”
6. Is North Korea facing an economic and health care crisis?
National Interest · Daniel R. DePetris · December 6, 2020
Well, yes, this is a BFO (blinding flash of the obvious).
But let's please stop blaming sanctions for the suffering of the Korean people living in the North. The people are suffering because of Kim Jong-Un's deliberate policy decisions to prioritize nuclear weapons, the military, and the survival of the regime over the health and welfare of the Korean people living in the North.
I would also bet if we lifted sanctions altogether it would not result in any reduction in suffering of the people because the regime will not prioritize their welfare.
But Kim can get sanctions relief. All he must do is comply with the requirements of the sanctions. And for those who advocate for relief without compliance, what malign behavior by the regime do you wish to condone? The nuclear and missile programs? Global illicit activities? Weapons proliferation? Cyber-attacks? Overseas slave labor? Human Rights abuses and crimes against humanity of the Korean people living in the North? Just tell me which behavior you wish to condone.
And do not fall for the lie that sanctions relief will lead to negotiations and denuclearization. Sanction relief will lead to the regime doubling down on blackmail diplomacy, political warfare, and the long con.
7. Former cybersecurity chief says Russia, China, Iran and North Korea are trying to steal coronavirus vaccine IP
CNBC · Amanda Macias · December 6, 2020
The four musketeers of the cyber world (or the four horsemen of the cyber apocalypse).
8. North Korean trade hit more by COVID-19 than sanctions
Japan Times · Jiyeun Lee · December 5, 2020
More specifically it is not COVID, but the draconian population and resources control measures the regime is implementing to not only prevent COVID but also to further oppress the Korean people living in the North and crack down on all anti-regime activities.
9. A test of Japan–South Korea relations
Diplomat · Shin Kawashima · December 6, 2020
10. The seven surpluses
Korea Joong Ang Daily · Shin Kak-soo · December 6, 2020
A very interesting critique.
11. Jeffrey Prescott, Joe Biden aide noted for experience and calm, may become point person on China
South China Morning Post · Mark Magnier · December 7, 2020
I am unfamiliar with Mr. Prescott.
12. Washington's top North Korea envoy to visit Seoul this week
UPI · Thomas Maresca · December 7, 2020
13. 17 USFK-affiliated people test positive for new coronavirus
Yonhap News Agency · 오석민 · December 7, 2020
14. U.S. defense bill on Huawei puts Seoul in a pickle
Korea Joong Ang Daily · Shim Kyu-Seok · December 7, 2020
I have not read all the NDAA, but I missed this section. A pickle is right. This could have a significant impact on OPCON transition and the stationing of US troops in Korea. In my last meeting at MND in June 2019, we were specifically told there is no Huawei equipment in the ROK MND C2 architecture. But if the military is dependent on civilian communications architecture for its backbone, it is likely there is connectivity at least indirectly with Huawei equipment.
This is another issue that will likely be added to the DEPSECSTATE's trip to Seoul this week.
“Yesterday, December 7, 1941 - a date which will live in infamy - the United States of America was suddenly and deliberately attacked by naval and air forces of the Empire of Japan.”
- Franklin D. Roosevelt on the morning after the Pearl Harbor attack
“I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.”
- attributed to Japanese Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto
"We should never overlook the might and resiliency of the human spirit. Even after years more challenging than 2020, we humans have emerged as stronger, more capable versions of ourselves. We are the ones who decide our fate. We must never allow ourselves to sink into hopelessness and despair."
- Reginald Dieudonne
“You must allow everyone the right to exist in accordance with the character he has, whatever it turns out to be: and all you should strive to do is to make use of this character in such a way as its kind of nature permits, rather than to hope for any alteration in it, or to condemn it offhand for what it is. This is the true sense of the maxim—Live and let live…. To become indignant at [people’s] conduct is as foolish as to be angry with a stone because it rolls into your path. And with many people the wisest thing you can do, is to resolve to make use of those whom you cannot alter:
-Arthur Schopenhuaer
"Grand Strategy is the art of looking beyond the battle and calculating ahead. It requires that you focus on your ultimate goal and plot to reach it. Let others get caught up in the twists and turns of the battle, relishing their little victories. Grand strategy will bring you the ultimate reward: the last laugh."
-Robert Greene