12/8/2020 News & Commentary - Korea

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Covert Chinese trade with North Korea moves into the open

2. NSA Robert C. O'Brien sounds off on coronavirus, North Korea and China

3.  US not seeing weapons proliferation from N. Korea: O'Brien

4.  Why South Korea's anti-leaflet bill is a mistake

5. How to buy time on the Korean Peninsula after Trump’s theatrics

6. Weakness from Washington and Seoul has emboldened North Korea

7. South Korea conservatives divided over apology to repair image

8. Thousands dying in secret North Korean COVID camps: report

9. Moon: S. Korea to consider joining CPTPP to expand its free trade network

10. Bill banning anti-North Korea leaflets faces backlash

11. North Korea claims Japan rearming to realize 'old ambitions'

12. South Korea to provide North Korea map service on government portal

13. New US defense act tests Korea in US-China rivalry

14. US Forces Korea under fire for 'no-mask' party

15. ‘Abraham Accords shows way forward for Korean peace’

16. Expert: ‘I don’t believe for a minute’ North Korea interfered in U.S. election

17. US Congress agrees on bill for counter-China initiative

18. Explained: North Korea’s new technology law

19. Concerns about US defense bill: 'Pacific Deterrence Initiative' may pose dilemma for Korea

20. U.S. envoy arrives in South Korea amid stalled efforts to restart talks with the North

21. New film “True North” depicts gruesome North Korean prison camps

22. ‘Seoul unlikely to reclaim wartime role from US on Moon’s tenure’

23. Two F-22 fighter jets from Guam redeployed in Kadena Air Base

24. Kim Jong-un PANIC: North Korean town raises alarm over lockdown killing food industry

25. North appears open to resuming dialogue, unification minister claims

26. N. Korea may respond to calls for antivirus cooperation after party congress: minister

 

1. Covert Chinese trade with North Korea moves into the open

Wall Street Journal · Michael R. Gordon · December 7, 2020

This is why we need to take action against those enabling sanctions evasion.

However, Ambassador Detrani makes the key point (remember the Chinese "3 No's" on north Korea - no war, no instability and regime collapse, and no nukes). China is concerned with North Korean instability.  As we should be (though that is not an excuse to evade sanctions). 

But the Chinese actions are an important indicator about what might be happening inside Pyongyang.  They have more access than South Korea does or we do. While we need to be concerned with the possibility of a provocation, especially during the vulnerable US administration transition period, the greater challenge could be contingencies surrounding internal instability. Provocations could still be a part of Kim Jong-Un's crisis action decision making when he is faced with internal threats and challenge. We have to understand and appreciate the context within which actions take place.

 

2. NSA Robert C. O'Brien sounds off on coronavirus, North Korea and China

1945 · Harry Kazianis · December 7, 2020

A fairly comprehensive interview with the National Security Advisor. Note the comments on North Korean proliferation. While I agree we have not seen proliferation of nuclear weapons, I think the proliferation of missiles and missile technology as well as a wide range of conventional weapons (as well training of rogue nations and groups) is pretty evident.

 

3. US not seeing weapons proliferation from N. Korea: O'Brien

Korea Herald · Yonhap · December 8, 2020

As I noted, I think his statement on proliferation was not strong enough. But he makes some good points on other North Korean issues and threats.

 

4. Why South Korea's anti-leaflet bill is a mistake

National Interest · Doug Bandow · December 7, 2020

I do not often have common ground with Doug Bandow, but I do on this issue.

 

5. How to buy time on the Korean Peninsula after Trump’s theatrics

Foreign Policy · John Delury · December 7, 2020

Spoiler alert. Proposal to have General Brooks lead a policy review along the lines of the Perry policy review. I am sure some of us can dust off the briefings we did in the 1998-99 for the Perry policy process.

 

6. Weakness from Washington and Seoul has emboldened North Korea

Bulwark · Mitchell Blatt · December 7, 2020

More criticism of the Moon administration than the Trump administration.

 

7. South Korea conservatives divided over apology to repair image

Bloomberg · Jeong-Ho Lee · December 7, 2020

The Korean conservatives are not going to be able to recover any time soon. I think we can make a pretty good guess that another progressive administration will succeed the Moon administration.

 

8. Thousands dying in secret North Korean COVID camps: Report

Washington Times · Guy Taylor · December 6, 2020

We need to be observant for the effects of COVID on the military as well as the general population

 

9. Moon: S. Korea to consider joining CPTPP to expand its free trade network

Yonhap News Agency · 이치동 · December 8, 2020

I had not heard that the Biden Administration might seek to have the US rejoin the CPTPP and I did not know this was possible. Withdrawing from TPP four years ago will go down in history as one of our biggest strategic mistakes in the 21st century.

 

10. Bill banning anti-North Korea leaflets faces backlash

Korea Times · Jun Ji-hye · December 7, 2020

As it must. This is a huge mistake by the ROK government. Appeasing North Korea does not work.

 

11. North Korea claims Japan rearming to realize 'old ambitions'

UPI · Elizabeth Shim · December 7, 2020

Don't mess with north Korea's Propaganda and Agitation Department. It has spin for anything.

 

12. South Korea to provide North Korea map service on government portal

UPI · Elizabeth Shim · December 7, 2020

Only in Korean language. I wonder if they will make it available in English.

 

13. New US defense act tests Korea in US-China rivalry

Korea Times · Kang Seung-woo · December 8, 2020

This is a key point form Bruce Klingner concerning contradictions within the new NDAA

 

14. US Forces Korea under fire for 'no-mask' party

Korea Times · Do Je-hae · December 8, 2020

What were these people thinking? It is not hard to think through the 2d and 3d order effects and to know their actions would be exposed and made public and impact the alliance. I guess there was not a single strategic corporal present to exercise common sense and good judgment.

 

15. ‘Abraham Accords shows way forward for Korean peace’

Gulf News · WAM · December 7, 2020

Sigh... Somehow, I think there are myriad cultural, economic, political, and security differences. But other than that, it could be a model.

 

16. Expert: ‘I don’t believe for a minute’ North Korea interfered in U.S. election

National Interest · Stephen Silver · December 4, 2020

From the “you cannot make this stuff up" category.

 

17. US Congress agrees on bill for counter-China initiative

Donga-A Ilbo · lightee@donga.com · December 8, 2020

The Koreans will worry about the Pacific Deterrence Initiative with its focus on China. But perhaps they should not. China already plays a huge role on the Korean peninsula and it certainly will in any contingency or war on the peninsula. And the development of any deterrence capabilities could have application to threats to the Korean peninsula.

And we should remember what the 1953 ROK-US Mutual Defense Treaty says:

ARTICLE II

The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of either of them, the political independence or security of either of the Parties is threatened by external armed attack. Separately and jointly, by self help and mutual aid, the Parties will maintain and develop appropriate means to deter armed attack and will take suitable measures in consultation and agreement to implement this Treaty and to further its purposes.

ARTICLE III

Each Party recognizes that an armed attack in the Pacific area on either of the Parties in territories now under their respective administrative control, or hereafter recognized by one of the Parties as lawfully brought under the administrative control of the other, would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common danger in accordance with its constitutional processes.

It seems like the Pacific Deterrence Initiative applies to Korea as well.

 

18. Explained: North Korea’s new technology law

National Interest · Stephen Silver · December 7, 2020

Obviously, it is all about control. Another indication the regime fears the Korean people living in the North more than it fears the US, which is why we should consider nurturing political defiance and political resistance.

 

19. Concerns about US defense bill: ‘Pacific Deterrence Initiative’ may pose dilemma for Korea

Korea Times · Editorial · December 7, 2020

 

20. U.S. envoy arrives in South Korea amid stalled efforts to restart talks with the North

Reuters · Josh Smith · December 8, 2020

This is why the Biden administration would be wise to ask Mr. Biegun to remain. High praise from the South Koreans

 

21. New film “True North” depicts gruesome North Korean prison camps

Daily Wire · Gabe Kaminsky · December 7, 2020

Animated. Interesting concept.

 

22. ‘Seoul unlikely to reclaim wartime role from US on Moon’s tenure’

Korea Herald · Choi Si-young · December 7, 2020

Look, this is not rocket science. Of course, the conditions-based approach must remain. The failure to meet the conditions puts the security of the ROK at risk. The real issue is how aggressive will the ROKG be in ensuring the conditions are met. That is where the commitment is required. This is not something we can "finger drill" or hand wave" just because a political leader wants it. Yes, of course, politics takes precedence, but leaders need to stand up and challenge the politicians when the security of a nation and the alliance is at stake. You either meet the conditions or you do not. You either protect your country and the alliance or you do not. The US is not standing in the way of OPCON transition and, in fact, it wants it to occur. It can send a powerful message to our alliance partners around the world to demonstrate the trust and confidence in the military leadership of our ally. But the ROK government has to earn that trust and confidence by properly resourcing and supporting their military leaders to meet the conditions for OPCON transition.

That said, it is also not rocket science in meeting the conditions. It takes sound military concepts, training, and acquisition of key equipment and more training—and then even more training and then continuous training.

 

23. Two F-22 fighter jets from Guam redeployed in Kadena Air Base

Dong-A Ilbo · Sang-Ho Yun · December 8, 2020

 

24. Kim Jong-un PANIC: North Korean town raises alarm over lockdown killing food industry

Express · Dylan Donnelly · December 8, 2020

The regime is deliberately acting to reduce market activity. Too much market activity has become a threat to the regime and the regime is using COVID as an excuse to implement oppressive measures and restrictions to control the population. Is blowback coming?

 

25. North appears open to resuming dialogue, unification minister claims

Korea Joong Ang Daily · Shim Kyu-Seok · December 8, 2020

More wishful thinking from the Minister of Unification.  Of course, he and the National Intelligence Service have access to back channel communications and I do not, so it could very well be that he knows more than we are seeing. But based on the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime, I remain skeptical.

 

26. N. Korea may respond to calls for antivirus cooperation after party congress: minister

Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · December 8, 2020

The Minister of Unification seems to be trying to create a narrative that the regime is pro-engagement. I wonder if his target audience is the incoming Biden Administration.

 

“Violence by the defenders will be used by the putschists to justify overwhelming repression which they want to use anyhow. It will be used to CLAIM that the putschists are saving the country from ‪‎terrorism or ‪civil war and are preserving "‪law and ‪‎order."

- Gene Sharp, The Anti-Coup

From a TikTok video:

"So I like we’ve been programmed to think that if we are in a war we’ll be seeing mass destruction and chaos happening all around us. But I think that we've surpassed the time where guns and missiles and violent weapons are the best form of warfare.

"There are many different types of warfare that would be a much better fit for the time that we’re living in right now, and we are currently in an age of information. So hypothetically if we were to be in World War Three it would be a war on information.

"People wouldn’t be dying left and right, because the people in power wouldn’t resort to that since we are their main source of money and power. It would be a silent war, a war on consciousness where people can be enslaved mentally.

"And a lot of people wouldn’t even realize it because they are fully engulfed in this intricately planned out illusion full of distractions and lies. Where they’re being killed slowly with biological warfare putting food and medicine in their body that’s actually just poison and dumbing them down.

"They are so caught up in distractions in this constant state of fear and worry that they don’t even realize they’re fighting a battle that they have to wake up in order to win.”

-@oliviadidat

“A man should learn to detect and watch that gleam of light which flashes across his mind from within, more than the luster of the firmament of bards and sages. Yet he dismisses without notice his thought, because it is his. In every work of genius we recognize our own rejected thoughts; they come back to us with a certain alienated majesty

- Ralph Waldo Emerson