News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. Chinese arms industry ranks second behind U.S., report says
2. The use of US special operation forces in great power competition: imposing costs on Chinese gray zone operations
3. Sorry, Gen. Lloyd Austin. A recently retired general should not be Secretary of Defense.
4. After 2020, what's next? A whiteboard
5. Irregular warfare authorities expand in defense budget
6. Counterterrorism setback: ‘Armed Overwatch’ is stalled again
7. China curtails overseas lending in face of geopolitical backlash
8. Special operations strives to use the power of artificial intelligence
9. Biden's reliance on retired military brass sets off alarm bells
10. CIA officer suffered crippling symptoms in Moscow. Was it 'Havana syndrome'?
11. The United States must marshal the “free world”
12. AI in the grey zone: Afghan lessons for great power conflict
13. U.S. missed an opportunity to 'put a lot of pressure' on China, says former senator
14. Why we need a new ICBM
15. Army to fire, suspend “significant number” of Fort Hood troops over pattern of violence at Texas base
16. These three companies will build drones to carry the Air Force's "Skyborg" AI computer brain
17. Composite Special Operations Component Command reaches full operational capability
18. The ethics of offensive cyber: reflections on the role of the National Cyber Force
19. Trump Admin to rename two bases for Space Force over military objections
20. Narrative strategy: creating the target audience
21. High-level US-Indonesia defence meeting aims to keep China at bay as Donald Trump ‘tries to solidify his legacy in Asia’
22. Between peace and war: gray zone, bright line, or dialectic?
1. Chinese arms industry ranks second behind U.S., report says
Wall Street Journal · Brett Forrest · December 7, 2020
What about being number 2? Always trying harder. Remember Avis (if you are of a certain age)?
2. The use of US special operation forces in great power competition: imposing costs on Chinese gray zone operations
Small Wars Journal · Kaley Scholl · December 7, 2020
Some excellent food for thought. Some of the best thinking on special operations comes from non-SOF (and non-uniformed military) personnel. If Kaley had been a student in my class on unconventional warfare and special operations for policymakers and strategists, she would have received an A.
3. Sorry, Gen. Lloyd Austin. A recently retired general should not be Secretary of Defense.
New York Times · Jim Golby · December 7, 2020
It did not take Jim Golby long to get this op-ed published. I am surprised the new administration would want to expend the necessary political capital this early to overcome the civil-military relations issue of nominating a retired 4 star.
4. After 2020, what's next? A whiteboard
War Room (Army War College) · War Room · December 4, 2020
An interesting survey of threats and challenges to the homeland.
5. Irregular warfare authorities expand in defense budget
Army Times · Kyle Rempfer · December 7, 2020
Congress has identified the requirement for irregular warfare (and such things as counter-unconventional warfare, SEC 1099 2016 NDAA) for some years. Congress will maintain the focus on IW and hopefully hold the rest of the executive branch's feet to the fire.
Remember in the 2017 NDAA, this is how Congress described irregular warfare. It in effect it was providing direction on how we should be thinking about irregular warfare in support of national interests and strategic objectives:
“Irregular Warfare is conducted in support of predetermined United States policy and military objectives conducted by, with, and through regular forces, irregular forces, groups, and individuals participating in competition between state and non-state actors short of traditional armed conflict.”
6. Counterterrorism setback: ‘Armed Overwatch’ is stalled again
Defense News · Elain McCusker · December 8, 2020
7. China curtails overseas lending in face of geopolitical backlash
Financial Times · Jonathan Wheatley · December 8, 2020
Some interesting data of which I was not aware.
8. Special operations strives to use the power of artificial intelligence
US Department of Defense · David Vergun · December 7, 2020
Video of the seminar at the link.
9. Biden’s reliance on retired military brass sets off alarm bells
Politico · Bryan Bender · December 7, 2020
There is one distinct difference between Biden and Trump. Biden has a lot more experience working with general officers. That said, I too am concerned about an over-reliance on retired military personnel. I think, in general, the best role for most retired military personnel is to provide advice and assistance and not fill key leadership roles. Of course, there are exceptions for key positions and in certain circumstances. But, in general, retired military personnel should be focused on working "through, with, and by" (thank you, Mark Boyatt, for coining the term and concept) and on conducting advisory assistance missions.
10. CIA officer suffered crippling symptoms in Moscow. Was it ‘Havana Syndrome’?
NBC News · Ken Dilanian, Andrea Mitchell, & Brenda Breslauer · December 7, 2020
There is "kinetic" political warfare. Our diplomats, intelligence personnel, and their families are vulnerable overseas.
11. The United States must marshal the “free world” by Alexander Vindman
Foreign Affairs · Alexander Vindman · December 7, 2020
Will the article be read and discussed for its ideas or will it be ignored and deleted because of the author's name?
12. AI in the grey zone: Afghan lessons for great power conflict
Breaking Defense · Sydney J. Freedberg Jr. · December 7, 2020
13. U.S. missed an opportunity to 'put a lot of pressure' on China, says former senator
CNBC · Yen Nee Lee · December 8, 2020
I concur. Our withdrawal from TPP was a major strategic mistake.
14. Why we need a new ICBM
FDD · Maj. Shane “Axl” Praiswater · December 7, 2020
15. Army to fire, suspend “significant number” of Fort Hood troops over pattern of violence at Texas base
KTLA5 · Associated Press · December 8, 2020
16. These three companies will build drones to carry the Air Force's "Skyborg" AI computer brain
Drive · Joseph Trevithick · December 7, 2020
17. Composite Special Operations Component Command reaches full operational capability
NATO · December 7, 2020
There has been an important expansion and sophistication of NATO special operations capabilities. A lot of work has been done by a lot of visionary SOF leaders in NATO over the past two decades. I think it is one of the biggest success stories of NATO but too often overlooked. I think NATO SOF has been making important but perhaps low visibility contributions in the global war on terrorism.
18. The ethics of offensive cyber: reflections on the role of the National Cyber Force
King's College London · Dr. Joe Devanny · December 7, 2020
A perspective from the UK about the UK's National Cyber Force (NCF).
I do have to throw the acronym confusion flag - OCO - overseas contingency operations? No. Here it is offensive cyber operations.
19. Trump Admin to rename two bases for Space Force over military objections
Defense One · Marcus Weisgerber · December 7, 2020
20. Narrative strategy: creating the target audience
Homeland Security Today · Ajit Maan · December 1, 2020
21. High-level US-Indonesia defence meeting aims to keep China at bay as Donald Trump ‘tries to solidify his legacy in Asia’
South China Morning Post · Amy Chew · December 8, 2020
22. Between Peace and War: Gray Zone, Bright Line, or Dialectic?
Real Clear Defense · Patrick Brady · December 7, 2020
Although the gray zone is used a lot, the writing about it has been reduced. The author talks about the range of writing, pro and con, from Mazarr to Elkus to Shadlow.
Here is a roll up of some of the key gray zone writings for those who are interested.
- 2010 QDR, page 73 - "gray area
- Gen Votel, March 2015, Congressional testimony
- DEPSECDEF Robert Work, April 2015, Army War College
- USSOCOM White Paper, September 2015
- Mike Mazarr, December 2015, 7 Hypotheses of the Gray Zone
- Hal Brands, February 2016, Paradoxes of the Gray Zone
- Frank Hoffman, 2016, The Contemporary Spectrum of Conflict
- Joseph L. Votel, Charles T. Cleveland, Charles T. Connett, and Will Irwin, January 2016, UW in the Gray Zone
- Autilio Echevarrio, April 2016, Operating in the Gray Zone
- Nathan Freier et al., Army War College, June 2016, Outplayed Regaining the Strategic Initiative in the Gray Zone
- Adam Elkus, December 2015, You Cannot Save the Gray Zone Concept
“Violence by the defenders will be used by the putschists to justify overwhelming repression which they want to use anyhow. It will be used to CLAIM that the putschists are saving the country from terrorism or civil war and are preserving "law and order."
- Gene Sharp, The Anti-Coup
From a TikTok video:
"So I like we’ve been programmed to think that if we are in a war we’ll be seeing mass destruction and chaos happening all around us. But I think that we've surpassed the time where guns and missiles and violent weapons are the best form of warfare.
"There are many different types of warfare that would be a much better fit for the time that we’re living in right now, and we are currently in an age of information. So hypothetically if we were to be in World War Three it would be a war on information.
"People wouldn’t be dying left and right, because the people in power wouldn’t resort to that since we are their main source of money and power. It would be a silent war, a war on consciousness where people can be enslaved mentally.
"And a lot of people wouldn’t even realize it because they are fully engulfed in this intricately planned out illusion full of distractions and lies. Where they’re being killed slowly with biological warfare putting food and medicine in their body that’s actually just poison and dumbing them down.
"They are so caught up in distractions in this constant state of fear and worry that they don’t even realize they’re fighting a battle that they have to wake up in order to win.”
-@oliviadidat
“A man should learn to detect and watch that gleam of light which flashes across his mind from within, more than the luster of the firmament of bards and sages. Yet he dismisses without notice his thought, because it is his. In every work of genius, we recognize our own rejected thoughts; they come back to us with a certain alienated majesty
- Ralph Waldo Emerson