Armed UAV at Leipzig Airport: Only a Matter of Time Before Something Goes Bang

A drone carrying explosives was found near Ukrainian cargo planes at Leipzig Airport this week, prompting robotic bomb disposal action and flight diversions. Reporting by the Guardian also indicated that one plane collided with an object while taking off from the airport, although the account is unclear about whether this was the same drone, an unarmed drone, or a different object altogether. 

Investigators have not tied the drone to any foreign actor, although Ukrainian representatives and European observers were quick to point to Russia as the likely perpetrator. If true, that would align with Russia’s history of drone overflights of critical sites in Europe– but would mark a significant escalation, given the fact this drone was armed. 

German Green party spokesperson Konstantin von Notz said: 

“Should it transpire that a state is behind this action, this would constitute not merely terrorism but state terrorism directed against the federal republic of Germany and its citizens.”

Our View

It is our view that it’s only a matter of time before an event like this leads to civilian fatalities and damage to infrastructure. When that happens, we’ll see a real test of the sinew of Europe’s response. Ironically, as recent articles in these pages have described, the European defense architecture is not set up to deal with near misses such as these. It may be that it’s better prepared to respond to actual kinetic events.

See our recent Discourse on IISS’s report connecting the Russian shadow flight with UAV overflights: “The Shadow Fleet’s Sky War: Lessons from IISS on Russia’s UAV Campaign.”