Trump to Investigate Iranian Drones in Cuba: What this Means

President Trump said yesterday that his government is looking into whether Iran is actively storing Shahed drones in Cuba, as reported by MercoPress. No official evidence is known to exist, let alone made public. The assertion is likely to be no more than a hypothesis. Even so, the president’s framing suggests U.S. forces would act if any evidence is found. 

Here’s an excerpt of a response to reporters in the Oval Office, July 13: 

“If they do have that, and they might very well have that, we’ll take care of it in short order. We’re not going to allow that to happen.”

The assertion that Cuba could be storing Iranian attack drones parallels a May 17 Axios report  (“Exclusive: U.S. eyes attack-drone threat from Cuba”) which claimed to have access to classified intelligence indicating that Cuba had acquired more than 300 military drones and had discussed using them to attack Guantanamo Bay, as well as U.S. military vessels and Key West, Florida. The veracity of this intelligence have not been confirmed by the U.S. government, however. 

What this could mean

The continuing thread of the potential of Iranian (and potentially Russian) origin weapons in Cuba, particularly when promulgated by the president, suggest that the U.S. government is keeping that threat in its back pocket as a Casus Belli for a potential strike on Cuba, whether or not the intelligence is accurate. 

If we are to see an attack on Cuba, look for similar claims to become more frequent in the leadup.