Ghaleb Krame on Cartels, Drones, and Mexico’s Response
When Ghaleb Krame cancelled a breakfast in Ciudad Victoria, he narrowly avoided a cartel commando attack that later left the restaurant riddled with gunfire. Days afterward, he learned a bounty had been placed on his head.
Krame’s trajectory—from war exposure in Lebanon as a teenager, to roles inside Mexico’s security system, to academic and advisory work—produces an outlook grounded in lived crisis experience.
He recently sat down with journalist Ioan Grillo for an interview on his CrashOut Podcast. We’ve distilled our takeaways from that conversation below.
From Criminality to Irregular Warfare
Krame interprets cartel activity as irregular warfare rather than conventional organized crime. In states such as Tamaulipas, Veracruz, and Colima, he describes adversaries that operate as decentralized armed networks. They adapt quickly and apply sustained pressure on institutions, which drives tactical innovation.
Drone Warfare and the Cartel Learning Curve
Krame highlights early cartel adoption of drones, beginning with improvised explosive devices and progressing toward potential AI-enabled targeting. This trajectory reflects continuous adaptation enabled by access to global technologies and specialized expertise.
He points to the growing conduit of expertise from the war in Ukraine to cartels:
Well, It’s no secret that there were many former Mexican military in Ukraine. And there is also no secret that they hire many Ukrainians and Russian ex-military experts in bombs, experts in drones that work for El Mencho.
Drones, he points out, don’t just drop bombs.
Drones are also used for psychological warfare… Yes, they can inflict psychological damage to people, to authorities, to rivals, to cartel rivals. It’s not just dropping bombs on civilians or on government forces. It has wide uses. And I believe this is a weapon that has come to stay for quite a while now.
Institutional Friction and Strategic Drift
Krame emphasizes weaknesses within the state. Tactical successes occur, yet they rarely translate into sustained control. Violence is managed rather than resolved.
And my question to you is, have we sorted out the problem of drug trafficking? No. So we are not capable by ourselves. I’m not saying that we don’t have a capable navy or a capable army. What we are saying is… the whole system is so corrupt that we are administering, we’re managing the war against drugs. We are not taking care of it.
These limitations enable cartel innovation. A networked adversary operates against institutions that struggle to integrate resources and intelligence.
The Tempo Problem
Cartels sustain initiative through speed and decentralization. State institutions operate through slower, hierarchical processes. This mismatch allows non-state actors to set operational tempo and shape the environment.
Addressing this requires integrated interagency coordination and adaptive counter-network strategies. Without such shifts, capability gaps will expand.
Conclusion
Krame’s assessment, grounded in direct exposure to violence and institutional failure, warns of a rapidly evolving adversary. Cartels function as learning organizations, embedding new technologies such as drones into their operational logic. The central challenge for Mexico lies in aligning governance and strategy at sufficient speed to match this evolution.
He leaves the listener with a simple future to strive for.
What I want is a Mexican society to have chats, dinner chats with their families, speaking about something else but violence. This is what I want. And this is what I’m working for.
The link to the original podcast, both video and transcript, is available here: “Krame: ‘Cartels Will Get AI Drone Swarms.‘”
While you’re here:
In February, Ghaleb Krame published a piece in Small Wars Journal that analyzed the strategic dimensions of the operation that killed Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (El Mench), leader of the Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG). We recommend you take a look at it here: “Operational Assessment: Decapitation Under Pressure – Operational and Strategic Implications of the Elimination of El Mencho.”
