News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. America's civil-military crisis is bubbling under the surface

2. Spate of new research supports wearing masks to control coronavirus spread

3. Slowing the Coronavirus Is Speeding the Spread of Other Diseases

4. SOCOM Gung-Ho on Biotechnologies

5. Philippine court finds news site chief Maria Ressa guilty of libel

6. China's drive for hegemony meets resistance

7. Yankee go home: What does moving troops out of Germany mean?

8. After COVID-19, It's Time for Washington to Embrace a Bolder Taiwan Strategy

9. What Big Tech Wants Out of the Pandemic

10. This 'nerdy' Special Forces soldier is getting paid to play 'Call of Duty' in the US Army

11. The Trump factor: Asian allies question America's reliability

12. Maria Ressa: The celebrated Philippine news boss enraging Duterte

13. VOA Director's Statement on CDC's Media Interview Policy Excluding VOA Journalists

14. Three pathways to war between the US and China

15. How the Coming Crash in the Dollar Will Unfold

16. Why The Navy's Latest Narco Submarine Seizure Is A Big Deal

17. Three US Navy aircraft carriers are patrolling the Pacific Ocean at the same time. And China's not happy

18. Putin: Protests and coronavirus show U.S. 'internal crises'

19. An Assessment of the U.S. Army's Civil Affairs' Capability to Provide Commanders with Improved Situational Awareness in Population-Centric Operations

20. Trump's loyalty enforcer steamrolls Cabinet officials in campaign to reshape top agencies

1. America's civil-military crisis is bubbling under the surface

canberratimes.com.au · by Jim Golby · June 15, 2020

Jim Golby is a keen observer of strategy, military operations and civil-military affairs.

2. Spate of new research supports wearing masks to control coronavirus spread

The Washington Post · Ben Guarino, Chelsea Janes and Ariana Eunjung Cha· June 13, 2020

The fundamentals of public health procedures work: wash your hands, wear a mask, and keep your social distance.

3. Slowing the Coronavirus Is Speeding the Spread of Other Diseases

The New York Times · by Jan Hoffman and Ruth Maclean · June 14, 2020

Second and third order effects. Nothing happens in a vacuum.

4. SOCOM Gung-Ho on Biotechnologies

nationaldefensemagazine.org · by Yasmin Tadjdeh· June 12, 2020

A little irony here.  Gung-ho is a Chinese word.  I do not think we want Chinese help in developing biotechnologies.  :-) 

5. Philippine court finds news site chief Maria Ressa guilty of libel

Reuters · June 15, 2020

Duterte is destroying democracy in the Philippines.  This is terrible news.

6. China's drive for hegemony meets resistance

asiatimes.com · by Scott Foster · June 14, 2020

As there should be.  The CCPs global strategy is being exposed and countries around the world must resist it.  Of course we need to conduct a superior form of political warfare to counter the party's quest for hegemony.

7. Yankee go home: What does moving troops out of Germany mean?

AP · by David Rising · June 14, 2020

It has been awhile since I have heard "Yankee go home."  We usually associate it with the opposition in a host nation wanting to kick us out.  It is not usually us saying we are going home.

8. After COVID-19, It's Time for Washington to Embrace a Bolder Taiwan Strategy

thediplomat.com · by Craig Singleton · June 13, 2020

From another of my FDD colleagues, Craig Singleton. I think we need to learn how to play "Go."  I also think we have to answer the question of what is the acceptable, durable, political arrangement that will projects, sustain, and advance US interests.

9. What Big Tech Wants Out of the Pandemic

defenseone.com · by The Atlantic

The firms are all too eager to help the government manage the coronavirus crisis.

10. This 'nerdy' Special Forces soldier is getting paid to play 'Call of Duty' in the US Army

Business Insider · by David Choi · June 15, 2020

11. The Trump factor: Asian allies question America's reliability

Financial Times · by Kathrin Hille · June 15, 2020

Alliances are key to US national power.  We must demonstrate strategic reassurance and strategic resolve. I read many pundits who debunk this and describe all the ways we are supporting allies. But perception is reality.  This is troubling if this perception persists among our allies.

12. Maria Ressa: The celebrated Philippine news boss enraging Duterte

BBC · June 15, 2020

This is a terrible tragedy both the personal attack on Maria and the attack on freedom of the press and democracy in the Philippines.  For those who do ont know Maria this is a useful summary of her background. In addition to being an excellent journalists she has written excellent books on terrorism and social media.  He book the Seeds of Terror is one of the best books on terrroism in SE Asia. We have been friends for nearly two decades.  We first met on Basilan when she was reporting on OEF-P.  After traveling around the island interviewing Special Forces teams she told me that the soldiers were "on message" and knew how to talk to journalists (this was the result of some great training by a great public affairs officer and the Sergeants Major in each company).  There are few journalists who have a grasp of the terrorist problem at the local level and at the regional and strategic level.  I hope this sham verdict will be overturned and soon.  The next election in the Philippines cannot come soon enough.

13. VOA Director's Statement on CDC's Media Interview Policy Excluding VOA Journalists

insidevoa.com

This is unbelievable.  What is the matter with the CDC? Are we this incompetent that US government agencies do not understand the mission of VOA?  VOA is one of the most objective news reporting services in the world. And because of that it provides an example of freedom of the press which does more to advance US interests than many other government agencies.

14. Three pathways to war between the US and China

asiatimes.com · by More by Sim Vireak · June 15, 2020

I guess the author does not believe in Norman Angell theory in which he argued that the growth of economic interdependence between the great powers made war between them futile and therefore unlikely.

15. How the Coming Crash in the Dollar Will Unfold

Bloomberg · by Stephen Roach · June 14, 2020

This is beyond my level of expertise.  However, what little I do know is that we must protect the dollar as the reserve currency and our failure to do will severely impact not our economic instrument of national power but all others as well, to include the military instrument,

16. Why The Navy's Latest Narco Submarine Seizure Is A Big Deal

Forbes · by H I Sutton · June 12, 2020

The photos sure look similar to north Korean semi-submersibles.

17. Three US Navy aircraft carriers are patrolling the Pacific Ocean at the same time. And China's not happy

CNN · by Brad Lendon · June 15, 2020

I do not think we deploy (or not deploy) US military forces to make China happy.

18. Putin: Protests and coronavirus show U.S. 'internal crises'

Politico· June 15, 2020

Thank you Mr. Putin for your expert analysis. Are you describing the effects you have been trying to achieve?

19. An Assessment of the U.S. Army's Civil Affairs' Capability to Provide Commanders with Improved Situational Awareness in Population-Centric Operations

divergentoptions.org · by Divergent Options · June 15, 2020

Civil Affairs soldiers conducting civil reconnaissance can provide some of the best understanding of the human domain.  Let Civil Affairs do their jobs and then read their reports and listen to them. And we need more than situational awareness.  We need situational understanding.

20. Trump's loyalty enforcer steamrolls Cabinet officials in campaign to reshape top agencies

Axios · by Jonathan Swan· June 15, 2020

Sigh.... If this is accurate reporting I can see the parallel with other systems where loyalty is more important than competence and the only way to advance is to demonstrate personal loyalty to the leader.  I hope this is not accurate reporting.

---------

A healthy and fully functioning society must allocate its resources among a variety of competing interests, all of which are more or less valid but none of which should take precedence over national security."

- Herman Kahn

"Despite unprecedented levels of technological advancement and the interconnectedness of the world, the pursuit of truth in the realms of foreign policy and national security remains a critical issue. This is because the level of 'noise' that must be sifted through has also reached an unprecedented size and scope."

- Will Hurd

"If [people] cannot think well, others will do their thinking for them."

- George Orwell
 

Two narco submarines (also known as low-profile vessels or LPVs) were interdicted by joint US Navy/US Coast Guard teams in the Pacific,  The seizures by personnel abroad the USS Preble on 5 June 2020 and the USS Pinckney on 16 May 2020 involved two separate but virtually identical LPVs.

Two Narco subs (LPVs) interdicted by USCG personnel aboard USS Preble (5 June 2020) and USS Pinckney (15 May 2020). Source: HI Sutton, US Navy, US Coast Guard.

The interdictions are described in an article at Forbes by HI Sutton an analyst specializing in unconventional naval warfare and narco submarines.  Sutton's recent book Narco Submarines: Covert Shores Recognition Guide was reviewed at SWJ earlier this year.  Sutton has developed a taxonomy of narco submarines which are discussed in his article.  The LPVs interdicted in these cases were classed as "LPV-OM-VSV-6 meaning that it is the 6th family of low-profile vessel with outboard motors, using a ‘very slender vessel’ style hull." 

Continue to "Why The Navy’s Latest Narco Submarine Seizure Is A Big Deal."

Source: HI Sutton, "Why The Navy’s Latest Narco Submarine Seizure Is A Big Deal." Forbes. 12 June 2020. 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

1. First Vice Department Director of WPK Central Committee Issues Statement (Kim Yo-jong)

2. Amid COVID-19, the US Needs to Rethink Its Approach to Host Nation Support Talks

3. Kim Jong Un to Trump: 'I Won't Bring You Flowers Anymore'

4. Seoul holds top security meeting over Pyongyang's threats 

5. Seoul urges Pyongyang to keep reconciliatory deals, staunch posture in place over threats

6. Could Donald Trump Attack North Korea Before the 2020 Election?

7. Why Kim Jong-un's sister is putting the pressure on South Korea

8. North Korea Arrests Citizens for Thought Crimes After Anti-Exile Protests

9. South Korea on alert following threats from the North two years after first Trump-Kim summit

10. North Korea war alert: Kim Jong-un's sister promises retaliatory actions for defectors

11. How Donald Trump's North Korea gamble went bust

12. 'Comfort women' crisis: campaign over wartime sexual slavery hit by financial scandal

13. Desecrating Korean War Veterans' Graves at the National Memorial Cemeteries in South Korea

14. U.S. embassy in Seoul displays Black Lives Matter banner in support of anti-racism protests

1. First Vice Department Director of WPK Central Committee Issues Statement (Kim Yo-jong)

Date: 14/06/2020 | Source: Uriminzokkiri (En) | Read original version at source

https://kcnawatch.org/newstream/1592067983-609172723/first-vice-department-director-of-wpk-central-committee-issues-statement

This sure is raising the rhetoric to a new level.  And this is a very powerful statement from Kim Yo-jong: Quote "By exercising my power authorized by the Supreme Leader, our Party and the state, I gave an instruction to the arms of the department in charge of the affairs with enemy to decisively carry out the next action."  She is telling us she has the authority to issue orders to the Army and she is telling us she has given orders for the Army to take action. On the one hand it is an admission of the tremendous pressure the regime is under due to the failure to get sanctions relief.  It is also interesting how she describes her new power and the trust that has been put in her.  I really wonder if something is wrong with KJU.  But this is quite a threat to use the Army.  On the one hand it is not any worse or provocative than past threats to turn Seoul into a sea of fire.  However, this threat both reinforces the power of the military by giving it the direction to do something but not specifically telegraphing what will be done. The military will figure out what is to be done (but nothing can ever be done without Kim Jong-un's approval).  That provides both operational security by not telegraphing a course of action but also plausible deniability if something goes bad (and the blame will be on the military).  And if they do not do anything the blame for that will be on the military. The message seems to be to both legitimize and strengthen the military (continued Military First Politics) and to set the foundation for future blame of the military.  And we know that in almost everything north Korea does it prepares to have a fall guy or scapegoat - especially in negotiations with the South and the US.
And a friend pointed out this in response to my comments above: The same logic could be extended to the role of KYJ. KJU can make an excuse to Moon by blaming KYJ If things go wrong or when he wants to return to the charm offensive. 
The bottom line is there is a lot happening in this message. 

2. Amid COVID-19, the US Needs to Rethink Its Approach to Host Nation Support Talks

thediplomat.com – Jeffery W. Hornung and Scott W. Harold - June 12, 2020

The authors make an important and logical argument.  It actually should provide the basis to step back from the negotiations and find a way out and end our exorbitant demands on the ROK (and soon on Japan).  As I wrote here my recommendation would be to suspend negotiations with an agreement to sustain the current levels of funding for the next two years and then begin negotiations with a clean slate.  https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2020/03/18/competing-crises%3A-a-failed-rok-us-burden-sharing-agreement-and-the-coronavirus-in-north-korea

However, I fear those who believe in a transactional alliance relationship will counter this logical argument with the fact the US is experiencing economic difficulties and suffering from the pandemic and thus our allies should be forced to pay more.

3. Kim Jong Un to Trump: 'I Won't Bring You Flowers Anymore'

Daily Beast – Gordon G. Chang – 14 June 2020

Comments from Dr. Bruce Bechtol and me.

4. Seoul holds top security meeting over Pyongyang's threats 

en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · June 14, 2020

South Korea has to take this seriously and so must the alliance.  I imagine the permanent Military Committee has already been in consultation.  And I hope the MOFA-State strategy working group is assessing this week's developments and charting a way ahead for the alliance.

5. Seoul urges Pyongyang to keep reconciliatory deals, staunch posture in place over threats

en.yna.co.kr · by 박상수 · June 14, 2020

One reason the regime is doing this is because of its perception of the state of the ROK/US alliance.  Due to the perceived friction in the alliance Kim thinks he can drive a wedge deeper in the alliance and because of that friction any responses will be uncoordinated and ineffective.  One of the most important responses to the north would be to demonstrate strength and resolve in the alliance.  I would recommend conducting a major exercise or a series of major exercises building up to the Dong Meng 20-1 exercise in August.  Simultaneously we should end the SMA/burden sharing process, agree to current levels of funding for the next two years and then return at the right time to negotiate a truly fair and equitable agreement.

6. Could Donald Trump Attack North Korea Before the 2020 Election?

The National Interest · by Timo Kivimäki · June 13, 2020

Of course, he could.  But the reason for doing so has to due to north Korean actions. To think that we would conduct a "wag the dog" election strike is well unthinkable.  Such an action would surely have catastrophic blowback.

Also, I question the idea that north Korea is unpredictable.  The actions this week while seemingly unpredictable actually follow the regime's seven decades old playbook and should be no surprise.  Sure, the timing can be a surprise and the rhetoric can be new but the fact the regime is taking such action should be a surprise to no one.

7. Why Kim Jong-un's sister is putting the pressure on South Korea

South China Morning Post – John Power – 14 June 2020

Because she can.

Yes, grooming for succession could be one reason.

She is the only person Kim Jong-un trusts.  Someone has to do the work since it seems since March Kim is on a work schedule of work one day and take a three-week holiday.

But I also think we have to realize what a threat information is to the regime. The work of escapees trying to get information to the Korean people in the north is a real threat.

8. North Korea Arrests Citizens for Thought Crimes After Anti-Exile Protests

rfa.org

From Radio Free Asia. Remember that this is broadcast into north Korea so the Korean people can get the news.  Note these are forced "anti-exile protests" in the north.  Those who were "absent" were arrested.  One of the "thought crimes" was a citizen commenting to someone that he thought the escapees/defectors are doing important work.  We should think about that.  I wonder if these forced protests backfired for the regime since it calls attention to the important work escapees/defectors are doing for the Korean people in the north.

9. South Korea on alert following threats from the North two years after first Trump-Kim summit

Stars and Stripes – Kim Gamel – 14 June 2020

I wonder what level of "alert."  Is the military on alert? Or are these just words to describe the Blue House being alert for some new development? Or is this just rhetorical?

Experts are speculating an artillery firing.  I wonder since we are entering the "crab war" period in the West Sea if we are going to a naval provocation or something against the Northwest Islands.

10. North Korea war alert: Kim Jong-un's sister promises retaliatory actions for defectors

Express · by Gursimran Hans · June 14, 2020

The knee jerk reaction by South Korea should be to denounce the regime and ensure the escapees/defectors are well protected.  They are (South) Korean citizens.  They and their work should be protected.  But instead the knee jerk reaction is to denounce Korean citizens and attempt to pass a law to prevent their continued human rights work (the work they are doing is in support of the human rights of the Korean people living in the north).  I hate to be this harsh, but these are not the actions that should be taken by a liberal democracy and a country that is trying to rebuild its historical narrative around its democracy movement. The administration's actions undermine the legitimacy of the democracy movement narrative.

11. How Donald Trump's North Korea gamble went bust

NBC News · June 13, 2020 – Ken Dilanian

Yes, I regret many of POTUS's statements and tweets.  But those statements and tweets are not the cause of the "failure" of a "deal."  The fault for failure lies in the nature of the Kim family regime: The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

I would say the success of the President's unconventional, experimental, top-down, pen-pal diplomacy is that it has allowed us to cope, contain, and manage the north Korean problem, has sustained the longest period of maximum pressure which despite the massive sanctions evasion continues to exert pressure on Kim because of his failure to gain sanctions relief, and despite what the critics say, we have not succumbed to Kim's "long con" and his political warfare with Juche characteristics.  Now is the time for us to play our long game and our superior form of political warfare that must focus on solving the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice) and lead to the only acceptable durable political arrangement that will protect, sustain, and advance US and ROK/US alliance interests in Northeast Asia: A secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government determined by the Korean people.  In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).

12. 'Comfort women' crisis: campaign over wartime sexual slavery hit by financial scandal

The Guardian · by Justin McCurry · June 14, 2020

This is a terribly sad development.

13. Desecrating Korean War Veterans' Graves at the National Memorial Cemeteries in South Korea

eastasiaresearch.org · by Tara O · June 13, 2020

This pains me to read. And the treatment of General Piak is truly troubling, disappointing, and sad.

14. U.S. embassy in Seoul displays Black Lives Matter banner in support of anti-racism protests

Reuters – Cynthia Kim – 14 June 2020

And very good tweets from the US Embassy and the Ambassador.

"The most extravagant idea that can be born in the head of a political thinker is to believe that it suffices for people to enter, weapons in hand, among a foreign people and expect to have its laws and constitution embraced.  No one loves armed missionaries.  The first lesson of nature and prudence is to repulse them as enemies."

- French Revolutionary leader Robespierre, in a speech he gave to the Jacobin Club on 2 January 1792

"There are those who would draw a sharp line between power politics and a principled foreign policy based on values. This polarized view - you are either a realist or devoted to norms and values - may be just fine in academic debate, but it is a disaster for American foreign policy. American values are universal."

- Condoleezza Rice

"We thought that the dispatch of American forces to any of these threatened areas would, in fact, be self-defeating. The idea of strategic bombing as a weapon against communist infiltration and subversion would have been strange to us. What seemed to us desirable was to stimulate and encourage the rise of indigenous political resistance to communist pressures in the threatened countries. We believed that unless the people and governments of those countries operating through their own political systems, could be induced to pick up the great burden of this load, success was not likely. For us to attempt to carry that burden would have effects - such as the paralysis of local initiative and responsibility, or the negative impact which a great foreign presence inevitably has on the natives of a country - which would tend to defeat the purpose of the undertaking."

- George Kennan, 1967

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

1. Flight of the Superpower: America accelerates its withdrawal from the world.

2. Retired Army special forces officer named as Pentagon intel nominee

3. Poland and U.S. deny that Fort Trump proposal is bogged down

4. Superpowers clash in the battle to crown the new head of the WTO

5. EXCLUSIVE: Counterterrorism Expert Says 'The Goal Of Antifa Is To Overthrow The Government'

6. Scant evidence of antifa shows how sweeping the protests for racial justice have become

7. US developing powerful drone to combat fighter jets

8. China Has Way Too Much Power Over Zoom. These Activists Learned the Hard Way.

9. Opinion | Amal Clooney: A test for democracy in the Philippines

10. Standing Guard, Picking Up Trash And Getting Booted From a D.C. Hotel. Inside A Special Forces Unit's Controversial Deployment to DC

11. It's Not Too Late to Save the 2020 Election

12. Rename Fort Bragg? Don't Do It

13. Fox News reports Monty Python joke as proof of turmoil in Seattle

1. Flight of the Superpower: America accelerates its withdrawal from the world.

National Review Online · by Matthew Continetti · June 13, 2020

Is this our intention by withdrawing troops from Germany?  And according to former Ambassador Grenell we intend to withdraw troops from other countries, to include Korea and Japan as well.  Is this how we intend to support our National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy.

Some excerpts from our NSS (2017) https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf

America's allies are now contributing more to our common defense, strengthening even our strongest alliances.

To prevail, we must integrate all elements of America's national power-political, economic, and military. Our allies and partners must also contribute the capabilities, and demonstrate the will, to confront shared threats. Experience suggests that the willingness of rivals to abandon or forgo aggression depends on their perception of U.S. strength and the vitality of our alliances.

Fair and reciprocal trade, investments, and exchanges of knowledge deepen our alliances and partnerships, which are necessary to succeed in today's competitive geopolitical environment.

We are not going to impose our values on others. Our alliances, partnerships, and coalitions are built on free will and shared interests. When the United States partners with other states, we develop policies that enable us to achieve our goals while our partners achieve theirs.

These principles form the foundation of our most enduring alliances, and the United States will continue to champion them. Governments that respect the rights of their citizens remain the best vehicle for prosperity, human happiness, and peace.

U.S. allies are critical to respond to mutual threats, such as North Korea, and to preserving our mutual interests in the Indo-Pacific region.

We will redouble our commitment to established alliances and partnerships, while expanding and deepening relationships with new partners that share respect for sovereignty, fair and reciprocal trade, and the rule of law.

The NATO alliance of free and sovereign states is a one of our great advantages over our competitors, and the United States remains committed to Article V of the Washington Treaty.

From the 2018  Summary of the National Defense Strategy.https://dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary.pdf

Although this system has evolved since the end of the Cold War, our network of alliances and partnerships remain the backbone of global security.

The willingness of rivals to abandon aggression will depend on their perception of U.S. strength and the vitality of our alliances and partnerships.

Mutually beneficial alliances and partnerships are crucial to our strategy, providing a durable, asymmetric strategic advantage that no competitor or rival can match.

We will strengthen and evolve our alliances and partnerships into an extended network capable of deterring or decisively acting to meet the shared challenges of our time.

Our alliances and coalitions are built on free will and shared responsibilities. While we will unapologetically represent America's values and belief in democracy, we will not seek to impose our way of life by force.

2. Retired Army special forces officer named as Pentagon intel nominee

Defense News · by Aaron Mehta · June 12, 2020

I do not know this gentleman.   There is not much background in the article (it focuses more on the shortage of political appointments). Interestingly Mr. Hansell served in both the Naval Special Warfare Command and Army Special Forces.  Here is his bio from his time at a Tillman Scholar at UVA. https://pattillmanfoundation.org/meet-our-scholars/brad-hansell/

3. Poland and U.S. deny that Fort Trump proposal is bogged down

Reuters · by 3 Min Read · June 13, 2020

Fake news?

4. Superpowers clash in the battle to crown the new head of the WTO

The Telegraph · by Lizzy Burden – 13 June 2020

We do not want the WTO to go the way of the WHO.  This is the battlefield of political warfare in the era of Great Power Competition.  We have to ensure the new head of the WTO cannot be co-opted or coerced by the PRC.

5. EXCLUSIVE: Counterterrorism Expert Says 'The Goal of Antifa Is To Overthrow The Government'

An 18-minute video at the link. 

https://dailycaller.com/2020/06/13/counterterrorism-expert-antifa-overthrow-the-government/

6. Scant evidence of antifa shows how sweeping the protests for racial justice have become

The Washington Post – Isaac Stanley-Becker – 13 June 2020

A contrarian view of ANTIFA.

7. US developing powerful drone to combat fighter jets

almasdarnews.com · June 13, 2020

8. China Has Way Too Much Power Over Zoom. These Activists Learned the Hard Way.

The National Interest · by Chris White · June 13, 2020

Interestingly the account was reinstated.  Is that a result of the public relations fallout?

9. Opinion | Amal Clooney: A test for democracy in the Philippines

The Washington Post · by Amal Clooney

We should all be thinking about our good friend Maria Ressa. This is a terrible situation for her and for freedom of the press.  I hope our government is putting pressure on the Philippines.

10. Standing Guard, Picking Up Trash and Getting Booted From a D.C. Hotel. Inside A Special Forces Unit's Controversial Deployment to DC

TIME · by W.J. Hennigan – 12 June 2020

Interesting story. 

11. It's Not Too Late to Save the 2020 Election

Wall Street Journal – Nathaniel Persily – 12 June 2020

An ominous warning with some good recommendations. As a nation we need to ensure the security and effectiveness of our election process.

12. Rename Fort Bragg? Don't Do It.

spectator.org · by Patrick O'Hannigan

Okay.  For those who do not want to rename the installations in the name of preserving history, perhaps we should consider this proposal.  This would be my recommendation: With the name of each installation we should include this history.  "This installation was named during the Jim Crow era some 60-90 years after the Civil War.  It is the result of subversive actions by those who seek to subtly perpetuate the ideal of the Confederacy.  The US government allowed these names so that it could establish military installations in these states and locations.  These names are a reminder that there are those who tried to prevent equal rights for all Americans many decades after the Emancipation Proclamation."

13. Fox News reports Monty Python joke as proof of turmoil in Seattle

Daily Mail · by Harriet Alexander For Dailymail.com · June 14, 2020

On a lighter note. you have to love Monty Python.

"The most extravagant idea that can be born in the head of a political thinker is to believe that it suffices for people to enter, weapons in hand, among a foreign people and expect to have its laws and constitution embraced.  No one loves armed missionaries.  The first lesson of nature and prudence is to repulse them as enemies."

- French Revolutionary leader Robespierre, in a speech he gave to the Jacobin Club on 2 January 1792

"There are those who would draw a sharp line between power politics and a principled foreign policy based on values. This polarized view - you are either a realist or devoted to norms and values - may be just fine in academic debate, but it is a disaster for American foreign policy. American values are universal."

- Condoleezza Rice

"We thought that the dispatch of American forces to any of these threatened areas would, in fact, be self-defeating. The idea of strategic bombing as a weapon against communist infiltration and subversion would have been strange to us. What seemed to us desirable was to stimulate and encourage the rise of indigenous political resistance to communist pressures in the threatened countries. We believed that unless the people and governments of those countries operating through their own political systems, could be induced to pick up the great burden of this load, success was not likely. For us to attempt to carry that burden would have effects - such as the paralysis of local initiative and responsibility, or the negative impact which a great foreign presence inevitably has on the natives of a country - which would tend to defeat the purpose of the undertaking."

- George Kennan, 1967

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Two years after Trump-Kim meeting, little to show for personal diplomacy

2. Trump shouldn't take his eyes off of North Korea

3. N. Korea warns S. Korea of 'regretful and painful' times ahead

4. Two Koreas, two looming crises

5. U.S. rights groups condemn hounding of balloon activists

6. North Korea dropkicks Trump, vows to expand nuclear arms

7. North Korea needs to extort democracies to survive

8. Commentary: COVID-19 is stressing North Korea out

9. Reopening from coronavirus: lessons From South Korea

10. North Korea asks why it should keep 'holding hands' with US amid Trump administration's 'hypocrisy'

11. Korea must be ready for 2nd coronavirus wave

12. Pentagon: S. Korea meets conditions to lift travel restrictions on U.S. troops

13. 'Faded away into a dark nightmare': North Korea says diplomacy with Trump has failed

14. U.S. wants to cut number of U.S. troops in Korea, says Trump loyalist

15. U.S. wants S. Korea to stand by its side against China

1. Two tears After Trump-Kim meeting, little to show for personal diplomacy

The New York Times · by David E. Sanger · June 12, 2020

Surely we can find lots to criticize about our North Korea policy and President Trump. However, all these critics want to do is blame the President and his advisors. What the critics fail to do is to understand and describe the nature of the Kim family regime, and as important, the regime's strategy. The north has never deviated from its strategy to use subversion, coercion, extortion (blackmail diplomacy) and the use of force to dominate the Korean peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.  It seeks to divide to conquer - to divide the ROK/US alliance to conquer the ROK. We can consider President Trump's unconventional, experimental, top-down and pen-pal diplomacy as a test to determine if Kim is willing to change. He has been tested and found wanting. 

Regarding sanctions, the critics and pundits misunderstand one aspect. Yes, they focus (rightly) on the regime's ability to evade sanctions and our inability to motivate the international community to aggressively enforce sanctions. Yes, China and Russia are regime enablers. However, even though funds and resources are getting to Kim's royal court economy, the maximum pressure campaign is working in one very important way. Kim's inability to be successful with his "long con" and to play Moon and Trump to get sanctions relief has led to the greatest failure among the "three Kim's" since Kim Il-Sung's failed attempt to unify the peninsula in 1950. Kim is facing enormous internal pressure for this failure. He raised expectations in 2018 that he could manipulate Moon and Trump to get sanctions relief. But this failure has undermined his legitimacy and this is why we have seen him act over the past year with 20+ missile and rocket launches and now with the rhetorical attacks on the South and the US.

The sad irony is that many in the press, many pundits, and many partisan pols would play right into Kim's hands, because they argue that we should lift sanctions to get Kim to the negotiating table. To do so would be to give Kim another success for his playbook of blackmail diplomacy. It would only lead to more tensions and more demands. Criticize Trump (and Moon) all you want, but at least they have not made the catastrophic strategic error of giving in to Kim in his demand that sanctions be lifted.

2. Trump shouldn't take his eyes off of North Korea

The Washington Examiner · by Washington Examiner · June 13, 2020

True, but North Korea is not our only problem. Trump has people to keep on eye on North Korea.

3. N. Korea warns S. Korea of 'regretful and painful' times ahead

Yonhap News Agency · by 이해아 · June 13, 2020

The statements from North Korea this week are a reminder of the regime's colorful use of translations of the English language.

4. Two Koreas, two looming crises

The Hill · by Joseph Bosco · June 12, 2020

One, North Korean intention and potential actions in response to its internal stressors that is putting great pressure on Kim Jong-un and could drive him to conduct some kind of major action.

Second, the friction in the ROK/US alliance could soon reach a crisis stage. (And then there is South Korean domestic politics.)

Joe concludes with a reminder that we need to include a focus on North Korean human rights abuses.

5. U.S. rights groups condemn hounding of balloon activists

The Chosun Ilbo · by Roh Suk-Jo · June 12, 2020

We need to put pressure on the Moon administration. They must protect these escapees and support their work, not arrest them. In effect, the ROK government is preventing human rights work toward North Korea. One of the major human rights abuses of the Korean people in the North by the Kim family regime is the prevention of free and open information flow to the people. President Moon has been described as a human rights lawyer. However, I am unaware of any of his work to protect the human rights of the Korean people in the North. But it is not too late to start and to live up to the description.

6. North Korea dropkicks Trump, vows to expand nuclear arms

The National Memo · by Josh Israel · June 12, 2020

There should be no question in anyone's mind that Kim Jong-un has no intention of giving up his nuclear weapons. They are just too important to him.

7. North Korea needs to extort democracies to survive

Foreign Policy · by Kristine Lee · June 12, 2020

I am happy to see Kristine Lee use two important words in the North Korean context: extortion and playbook.

Extortion (and coercion, subversion, and use of force) is a key element of North Korean strategy. And its playbook is blackmail diplomacy - the use of increased tensions and provocations to obtain political and economic concessions. And I think she makes an excellent point that democracies are the target of North Korea's extortion. But perhaps that is obvious. Does anything think extortion against the authoritarian regimes of China and Russia will pay off?

8. Commentary: COVID-19 is stressing North Korea out

CNA · by Liang Tuang Nah · June 13, 2020

It is only a matter of time before we learn what is really going on inside North Korea. Even if there has not been an outbreak, the regime's actions to prevent it are causing great stress on the entire nation. The halt to all trade (to include smuggling) has had a great negative impact on the market activity, which has long been necessary for the people to survive. The author correctly asks if these current conditions could lead to changes in the North's strategic deterrence and nuclear weapons policy? Unfortunately I think the answer is no it will not.

9. Reopening from coronavirus: lessons from South Korea

Spectrum News · by Rob Wu · June 12, 2020

Yes, we should learn from South Korea. Not only the positive lessons of test, trace, and treat (and isolation and quarantine) but also the negative lessons of potentially opening too early. And most important: the lessons to be learned from recovering from mistakes.

10. North Korea asks why it should keep 'holding hands' with US amid Trump administration's 'hypocrisy'

Vice · by Min Ji Koo · June 12, 2020

It is interesting how different outlets focus on different aspects of North Korean over the top rhetoric.  But there is a lot to choose from.

11. Korea must be ready for 2nd coronavirus wave

The Chosun Ilbo · by Editorial · June 12, 2020

And I think it will be. We should watch and learn.

12. Pentagon: S. Korea meets conditions to lift travel restrictions on U.S. troops

The Yonhap News Agency · by Lee Haye-Ah · June 13, 2020

US military endorsement of the good work of South Korea.

13. 'Faded away into a dark nightmare': North Korea says diplomacy with Trump has failed

USA Today · by Kim Hjelmgaard · June 12, 2020

More North Korean hyperbole. There is enough to go around for all the news outlets.

14.  U.S. wants to cut number of U.S. troops in Korea, says Trump loyalist

The Dong-A Ilbo · by journair@donga.com & tree624@donga.com · June 13, 2020

I am surprised former Ambassador Grenell's words have not made a bigger splash in Korea.

15. U.S. wants S. Korea to stand by its side against China

The Dong-A Ilbo · June 13, 2020

It sounds like Undersecretary Karch is pledging to defend South Korea against China's economic warfare.  He is using very strong language. We failed to help the South defend itself when we stationed THAAD in Korea against Chinese wishes. We must not make the same mistake again. If South Korea stands beside us against North Korea, we have to help defend the South against the economic fallout. These are good words from the Undersecretary.

The editorial board recognizes the South cannot turn its back on its number one trading partner. We must help it navigate this economic and security minefield.

“The advancement and diffusion of knowledge is the only guardian of true liberty.”

- James Madison

“So long as we remain amateurs in the critical field of political warfare, the billions of dollars we annually spend on defense and foreign aid will provide us with a diminishing measure of protection.”

- Senator Mundt, 1961

"We finally did bring President Aristide back to power with full American force, which proves how effective we can be when we decide to. The team assigned to keep my sector secure is a small squad of U.S. Special Forces. There are only eleven of them, but they are the most effective eleven humans I've ever encountered. They have Humvees that travel to the next town in fifteen minutes over a bad road that takes a regular Land Cruiser an hour. When the rains wash everything out, they have Zodiacs to cut across the bay and skip the road altogether. They're older than regular army soldiers; they have kids and go to PTA meetings, so they know how to talk to a local mayor with respect and patience and negotiate without screaming or immediately flashing a weapon. Alleviate, not create, tension. But the most important thing they have is autonomy. They don't have to report to echelons above reality for daily operations. They just think it up and do it. They're mobile, highly trained, fully armed American adults with autonomy. That's a hell of a combination. I'd like to travel from mission to mission with a squad of these men and see what we could accomplish"

- From the book Emergency Sex and Other Desperate Measures: A True Story From Hell On Earth by Kenneth Cain, Heidi Postlewait, and Andrew Thomson

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Coronavirus 2nd wave? Nope, the U.S. is still stuck in the 1st one

2. Chinese military officer arrested after trying to leave US

3. A brief history of Antifa: part I

4. Military spy agencies did not monitor protesters, Pentagon official says

5. Mass grave of US-made tanks uncovered in Iraq: photo

6. The trouble with loose 'war' talk

7. China's trillion-dollar campaign fuels a tech race with the U.S.

8. U.S.-Polish Fort Trump project crumbles

9. China-US military confrontation in the South China Sea: fact and fiction

10. The Pentagon's proposal to fill the swamp

11. Man accused in deputy ambush scrawled extremist 'Boogaloo' phrases in blood

12. A letter to Maggie... post COVID-19

13. Beijing goes into 'wartime mode' as virus emerges at market in Chinese capital

14. China claims to be victim, wants Twitter to delete attackers

15. The military can't save Washington from itself

16. How America's adversaries are using hybrid warfare to capitalize on civil unrest

17. China is censoring its critics on Zoom. Will the tech company continue to comply?

1. Coronavirus 2nd wave? Nope, the U.S. is still stuck in the 1st one

NPR · by Nurith Aizenman · June 12, 2020

I think we should be very worried and we have to remain vigilant. We should be implementing the best practices of public health processes.

2. Chinese military officer arrested after trying to leave US

Washington Examiner · by Caitlin Yilek · June 12, 2020

The Chinese use our open society against us. It is pretty bold to send actual PLA officers to do a post-doctoral fellowship. I wonder about the university vetting procedures. 

3. A brief history of Antifa: part I

Gatestone Institute · by Soeren Kern · June 12, 2020

Another look at ANTIFA.

4. Military spy agencies did not monitor protesters, Pentagon official says

The Washington Post · by Ellen Nakashima · June 12, 2020

I am happy to read this. If we had done this, it would surely cause a significant loss of trust and legitimacy with the American people.

5. Mass grave of US-made tanks uncovered in Iraq: photo

The Arab Source · by News Desk · June 12, 2020

I have seen no further information about this. There is not much in this article. The information comes from social media. Is this disinformation? Someone appears to be trying to undermine the reputation of the greatest tank in the world. I wonder who would seek to do that.

6. The trouble with loose 'war' talk

The Bulwark · by Adam Garfinkle · June 12, 2020

The author takes us all to task for using war to describe everything, especially a "new" Cold War. However, I will not stop using political warfare. We should not forget that while Clausewitz said war is politics by other means, our adversaries – the revisionist and rogue powers – believe politics is war by other means. They are practicing their unique forms of political warfare, and, in the terms Great Power Competition and conflict in the "Gray Zone," we need to conduct our superior form of political warfare.

7. China's trillion-dollar campaign fuels a tech race with the U.S.

The Wall Street Journal · by Liza Lin · June 11, 2020

It is going to be hard to compete with this. Perhaps we need to start using Chinese best practices (that include economic espionage) and adopt the Chinese R&D strategy: "steal to leap ahead" (note: tongue in cheek). But given the state of our economy and how we are trying to overcome the economic devastation caused by the coronavirus, it will be difficult for us to compete with the $1.4 trillion from China. We cannot do this at the government level. The question is: can and will our corporations and businesses compete on this economic and technological battlefield?

8. U.S.-Polish Fort Trump project crumbles

Reuters · by Joanna Plucinska & Idrees Ali · June 10, 2020

SOFA and burden sharing negotiations will create Polish-US friction.

9. China-US military confrontation in the South China Sea: fact and fiction

The Diplomat · by Hu Bo · June 12, 2020

A view from a Chinese author from Peking University. War is still "some way off." Really? I hope he is right on that point.

10. The Pentagon's proposal to fill the swamp

Lawfare · by Rep. Katie Porter & Rep. Jackie Speier · June 10, 2020

This is getting some push back within the national security community but not within the public or mainstream media.

11. Man accused in deputy ambush scrawled extremist 'Boogaloo' phrases in blood

NBC News · by Brandy Zadrozny, Ben Collins, & Andrew Blankstein · June 11, 2020

While we focus on ANTIFA, we miss these threats that are even within the ranks of the military. If I were advising the boogaloo bois and other similar radical organizations, I would recommend conducting an information campaign to make sure ANTIFA is blamed for all the unrest so no one focuses on these other organizations.

12. A letter to Maggie... post COVID-19

Institute for Defense & Business · by Mike Dana · May 26, 2020

An interesting look at what the world might be like.

13. Beijing goes into 'wartime mode' as virus emerges at market in Chinese capital

The Washington Post · by Anna Fifield & Lyric Li · June 13, 2020

There just has not been a lot of reporting from Beijing on the coronavirus outbreak there. It is those damn markets. What is China going to do about them?

14. China claims to be victim, wants Twitter to delete attackers

Variety · by Patrick Frater · June 13, 2020

I do not usually go to Variety for national security news, but this came to one of my news feeds. China is playing the victim card here. I think this is a case of the pot and kettle. I do not think China is being attacked on anywhere near the scale that China is using social media to control messaging and attack others.

15. The military can't save Washington from itself

AEI · by Kori Schake · June 11, 2020

Dr. Schake is one of the foremost thinkers on civil-military relations. She argues that Americans have to stop thinking about the military and veterans as saviors of comic book heroes and instead think of them as fellow American citizens. Otherwise, she argues, the politicization of the military will continue.

16. How America's adversaries are using hybrid warfare to capitalize on civil unrest

Coffee Or Die · by Nolan Peterson · June 8, 2020

From the web site "Coffee of Die."

This bears deep study and reflection as well as assessing all the indicators. I have no doubt adversaries will try to take advantage of civil unrest in America.

When I wrote these three paragraphs some years ago I was not anticipating our adversaries would exploit these conditions in America.

"Revolutions, resistance, insurgency, terrorism, and civil war (RRIT &CW) are being conducted around the world and will continue to be the norm in the space between peace and war. Our adversaries are exploiting political resistance and political violence and ambiguous and complex international conditions to achieve their ends."

"From the Gray Zone to Great Power, struggle is a spectrum of cooperation, competition, and conflict in that space between peace and war. We seek and desire cooperation, we have to be able to compete, and, while we want to avoid conflict, we must prepare for it. One of the important forms of conflict can be described by revolution, resistance, insurgency, terrorism, and civil war (RRIT & CW) with our adversaries – from AQ to ISIS to the Russian Little Green Men to the Iran Action Network or China's PLA – all executing strategies of modern unconventional warfare, with their own unique characteristics to include application of conventional force, to exploit the conditions of revolution, resistance, insurgency, terrorism and civil war (RRIT &CW) to achieve their strategic political objectives."

"Modern unconventional warfare, and the concepts of counter-UW, special warfare, and political warfare can provide a strategic capability to operate in this gap. To be effective, elements of the US military and Intelligence Community must continuously assess potential, nascent, and existing resistance organizations around the world on a day-to-day basis. Assessments will contribute to understanding when USG interests and resistance objectives can be aligned and provide the intellectual foundation to determine if a UW campaign is warranted or if opponents' UW campaigns should be countered."

I was not (and I am not) recommending that we need to do this in the US. But Americans need to understand the strategies of our adversaries, and we should not play into their hands. I do not want the US military or the intelligence community taking these actions in the US – though, again, the American people do need to counter our adversaries' unconventional warfare campaigns that may be being executed in the US as they exploit the actions of radical extremists on the left and right.

17. China is censoring its critics on Zoom. Will the tech company continue to comply?

The Washington Post · by Editorial Board · June 13, 2020

A good question.

 “The advancement and diffusion of knowledge is the only guardian of true liberty.”

- James Madison

“So long as we remain amateurs in the critical field of political warfare, the billions of dollars we annually spend on defense and foreign aid will provide us with a diminishing measure of protection.”

- Senator Mundt, 1961

"We finally did bring President Aristide back to power with full American force, which proves how effective we can be when we decide to. The team assigned to keep my sector secure is a small squad of U.S. Special Forces. There are only eleven of them, but they are the most effective eleven humans I've ever encountered. They have Humvees that travel to the next town in fifteen minutes over a bad road that takes a regular Land Cruiser an hour. When the rains wash everything out, they have Zodiacs to cut across the bay and skip the road altogether. They're older than regular army soldiers; they have kids and go to PTA meetings, so they know how to talk to a local mayor with respect and patience and negotiate without screaming or immediately flashing a weapon. Alleviate, not create, tension. But the most important thing they have is autonomy. They don't have to report to echelons above reality for daily operations. They just think it up and do it. They're mobile, highly trained, fully armed American adults with autonomy. That's a hell of a combination. I'd like to travel from mission to mission with a squad of these men and see what we could accomplish"

- From the book Emergency Sex and Other Desperate Measures: A True Story From Hell On Earth by Kenneth Cain, Heidi Postlewait, and Andrew Thomson

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Our message to U.S. is clear: Ri Son Gwon, Minister of Foreign Affairs of DPRK

2. North Korea vows to boost nuclear program, saying U.S. diplomacy failed

3. A crisis on the Korean peninsula reinforces the need for allies

4. Gov't throws book at leaflet campaigners

5. NKorea FM says optimism re US turned to nightmare

6. North Korea says Trump's 'empty promise' dashes hopes for deal

7. A North Korean ICBM test: would Kim Jong-Un really open Pandora's box?

8. China says U.S. should address North Korea's concerns

9.  Kim Jong Un Is MIA. His sister is on the attack.

10. As tension rises, N. Korea seen moving missiles: report

11. S. Korea-U.S. missile defense exercise crucial for OPCON transfer: ministry

12. Military conducts scaled-down firing drill amid heightened tensions with N. Korea

13. N. Korea has quarantined 865 suspected COVID-19 cases

14. 50% of South Koreans support law banning sending anti-NK leaflets

15. Political dynamics of propaganda leaflets and inter-Korean relations

16. What's behind North Korea's dwindling defection rate?

17. Two years since Singapore: did Kim outplay Trump?

1. Our Message to U.S. is Clear: Ri Son Gwon, Minister of Foreign Affairs of DPRK

KCNA Watch · by KCNA.kp · June 12, 2020

This is the message that is responsible for most of the press reporting on North Korea today. This is the two-year assessment following the Singapore Summit of June 11, 2018. I think it is fair to say that the North Korean Minister of Foreign Affairs no longer appreciates President Trump's unconventional, experimental, top-down, pen-pal diplomacy.

The regime is upset because it failed in its long con to get sanctions relief while keeping its nuclear program. But the responsibility for "failure" lies on the shoulders of Kim Jong-un who has prevented any substantive negotiations with the US.

The Foreign Minister lists what the North has done:

1. Halted nuclear and ICBM testing (which is of course a requirement of the sanctions).

2. A "total shutdown" of its nuclear test site (questionable - and this was a major Chinese demand).

3. Repatriation of scores of US POW/MIA remains (a real slip here - does this mean the regime is admitting that it kept US POWs after the war and they died in captivity? We should demand an accounting of POWs of the US and South Korea and other UN forces. We should also remember that the regime has some 200 remains ready for repatriation, but they only allowed some 50 to be returned).

4. A special pardon for the convicted felons of US nationality who were held in detention.

And you have to appreciate the description of the above measures.

As you read the following press, refer to the words here. The one significant point is that this message did not come from Kim Jong-Un, Kim Yo-Jong, the United Front Department, or the Workers Party of Korea. There is the ability to walk this back somewhat if it suits the regime's long con.

2. North Korea vows to boost nuclear program, saying U.S. diplomacy failed

The New York Times · by Choe Sang-Hun · June 11, 2020

I think Kim Jong-Un might be trying to execute his own maximum pressure campaign that will be based on conception, extortion, and blackmail diplomacy.

3. A crisis on the Korean peninsula reinforces the need for allies

The Hill · by Christopher R. Hill · June 11, 2020

We will not be successful against North Korea without a strong alliance structure, particularly our alliances with Korea and Japan. And we need cooperation between Korea and Japan.

4. Gov't throws book at leaflet campaigners

The Chosunilbo · by Lee Yong-Soo · June 12, 2020

This is so troubling. A liberal democracy like South Korea should not be infringing on the freedom of speech and expression. I think the Ministry of Unification has wanted to halt the operations of escapees/defectors for some time. Unfortunately, it miscalculated by responding to Kim Yo-Jong’s demands within 4-5 hours. And I know the citizens in the frontline areas (Kangwha Island and Paju) fear North Korean retaliation, but South Korea must stand up to the North and not appease it. The South's actions will not engender any goodwill from the North and certainly will not influence it to change its behavior. And we should consider that these information and influence operations are in support of human rights. The UN Commission of Inquiry recognized the regime's prevention of freedom of information in the north as a major human rights abuse. No one should be standing in the way of getting information to the Korean people in the North.

5. NKorea FM says optimism re US turned to nightmare

Asia Times · by AT Contributor · June 12, 2020

People are asking when will the President be able to use the words of Gerald Ford (adapted for use toward North Korea): "My fellow Americans, our long national nightmare is over..."

6. North Korea says Trump's 'empty promise' dashes hopes for deal

Bloomberg · by Jeong-Ho Lee · June 12, 2020

Empty promise? One thing the foreign minister is explaining to us is that our promise – that if Kim makes the rights strategic decision, there can be a brighter future in the North – is a threat to the regime. Giving up nuclear weapons is a threat to the survival of the regime. And a brighter future is equally a threat, because it means engagement, opening, and information. Remember that Kim fears the Korean people in the North more than the US and if we read between the lines, the regime is under enormous pressure for failure to get sanctions relief as well as because of the regime's economic measures in response to the coronavirus. I really think we have to pay close attention to the indications and warnings in Pyongyang. Storm clouds could be gathering.

7. A North Korean ICBM test: would Kim Jong-un really open Pandora's box?

The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · June 11, 2020

Will he or won't he test? There are more extremes. He could put a nuclear warhead on it and detonate in the atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean. We should ask what does Kim thinks would be the US response? He is looking at two likely ones: first is a fear of the fire and fury of 2017 - he may think the US will take decisive action. But he is also looking at the lack of significant US and South Korean response to the 20 plus missile and rocket tests since May of 2019 to the present. He is trying to determine if he has created a new normal that will allow him to push the envelope and not draw a decisive response. And he is trying to determine whether – if he conducts a test – POTUS would respond because of the belief that it would help his re-election campaign. Kim needs to be cautious and not miscalculate or misread POTUS.

8. China says U.S. should address North Korea's concerns

Reuters · by Gabriel Crossley, Se Young Lee, & Alex Richardson · June 12, 2020

I cannot speak Chinese, but let me take a stab at interpreting what the Chinese are saying here. In short: the US must lift sanctions on North Korea.

9. Kim Jong-Un is MIA. His sister is on the attack.

The Daily Beast · by Donald Kirk · June 11, 2020

Again, is she being groomed for succession?

Kim Jong-Un appears to be continuing the new work schedule.  Work one day and take about 3 weeks of holiday.  I guess that is why Kim Yo-Jong is filling in for him.

10. As tension rises, N. Korea seen moving missiles: report

The Korea Herald· by Choi Si-Young · June 11, 2020

I have not seen much open source reporting on this. 

11. S. Korea-U.S. missile defense exercise crucial for OPCON transfer: ministry

Yonhap News Agency · by 오석민 · June 11, 2020

Well that first paragraph is disappointing. How can the missile defense exercise be crucial to OPCON transition and not be part of an integrated missile defense system? Does the ROK think it is going to have OPCON of US missile defense systems but that there will be no integrated missile defense? Obviously, Korea is walking a tightrope because of Chinese demands that there be no integrated missile defense, no new THAAD deployments, and no trilateral ROK/US/Japan alliance. But, China does not get to vote on South Korean security measures, alliance issues, and self defense measures, unilateral and combined.

12. Military conducts scaled-down firing drill amid heightened tensions with N. Korea

Yonhap News Agency · by 최수향 · June 11, 2020

It is good that we are conducting readiness training, but it is the wrong message to either actually scale it down or to say that it is scaled down. We need to demonstrate strength and resolve to North Korea and not react to their rhetoric. The best way to protect South Korea is to demonstrate strength and will. Any appearance of appeasement only emboldens the regime.

13. N. Korea has quarantined 865 suspected COVID-19 cases

Daily NK · by Jang Seul-Gi · June 12, 2020

This is the first open source report I have seen in quite a while. This would seem like a significant number of cases that could cause a widespread outbreak.

A friend of mine provided this advice: if you want to find COVID in North Korea, look at those places where food shortages are most acute – wherever those may be.

14. 50% of South Koreans support law banning sending anti-NK leaflets

The Korea Times · by Jung Da-Min · June 11, 2020

This saddens me.

15. Political dynamics of propaganda leaflets and inter-Korean relations

The Korea Times · by Jung Da-Min · June 11, 2020

Yes, this is complex domestic political issue. But I think that is due to the Moon Administration's view of North Korea and its peace strategy. It fails to recognize the true nature of the Kim family regime, its strategy, and the terrible human rights abuses being committed by the Korean people living in the North. And finally, it is based on the misguided belief that stopping the information flow will somehow cause the regime to change its behavior.

Note the photo of our good friend, Suzanne Scholte. She is doing more to support the escapees and their information and influence activities than nearly anyone else.

Lastly, the ROK government needs to protect these escapees who are under threat from their fellow Korean citizens (as well as continued threat from the North). They have been receiving death threats.

16. What's behind North Korea's dwindling defection rate?

The Diplomat · by Abhinav Seetharaman · June 10, 2020

The regime crackdowns began well before the coronavirus, but the measures put in place to defend against the virus also impact escaping from the north.

But the author also postulates that improved "economic hope" has decreased the desire to escape. Hmmm...?

17. Two years since Singapore: did Kim outplay Trump?

CSIS · by Victor Cha & Sue Mi Terry · June 11, 2020

President Trump's unconventional, experimental, top down, and pen-pal diplomacy versus Kim Jong-'s "long con" in support of this political warfare strategy with Juche characteristics.

But my answer to the title question is “no.” For all the criticism of President Trump (and President Moon), the major failure for Kim Jong-Un is that sanctions have not been lifted. In this way, Kim has not outplayed 100%. Perhaps only 50%, because while sanctions remain in place, critics will point to the regime's continued development of the North's nuclear and missile programs.

But Kim will only "win" if he gets sanctions relief without giving up his nuclear weapons.

 “Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself.”

- Leo Tolstoy

“Always remember, however sure you are that you could easily win, that there would not be a war if the other fellow did not think he also had a chance.”

- Winston Churchill

“I believe that our national security lies not just in protecting our borders, but in bridging divides.”

- Joe Lieberman

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore

1. The battle over U.S. troop withdrawals is just beginning

2. U.S. military commander says conditions aren't yet right for complete withdrawal from Afghanistan

3. Perils of proxy wars In Afghanistan: a comparative study of the ISI of Pakistan and the IRGC of Iran

4. Twitter discloses propaganda campaigns tied to Russia, China

5. Twitter takes down Beijing-backed influence operation pushing coronavirus messages

6. The shape of Asia's new Cold War

7. What U.S. withdrawal from the World Health Organization will mean

8. The fall of the American counterrevolution

9. Trump orders sanctions on international prosecutors for investigating alleged U.S. war crimes

10. Vectoring special operations for great power competition

11. US to pull troops from Germany, ex-ambassador Grenell confirms (and he admits POTUS wants more)

12. Divided we fall: the United States needs international partners now more than ever

13. 'Show of force': US aircraft carriers patrol South China Sea for first time in 3 years

14. Exploitative, transactional, coercive, cultural, and contractual: toward a better theory of proxy war

15. The United States, China and 'the geography of the peace'

16. Could Donald Trump's war against Huawei trigger a real war with China?

17. China has designs on democracy in Southeast Asia

1. Opinion | The battle over U.S. troop withdrawals is just beginning

The Washington Post · by Josh Rogin · June 11, 2020

We have to decide what we want (and need) in terms of forward stationing of forces. We need to eliminate the misguided belief that we have troops stationed in a country solely for the defense of that country. That leads to the misguided belief the country should pay for our services to defend them. This makes our alliances transactionally based rather than based on shared interests, shared values, and shared strategy based on common threats. This can and should include mutual defense but first and foremost forward stationing of US forces has to support US national security interests.

We need to forward base forces to provide us with strategic agility and flexibility to project power from these locations or support the projection of power from CONUS in support of our national security and national defense strategies. 

We should also base forces on the capabilities and force structure necessary to support our strategies rather than the use of raw numbers or troop levels.  These raw numbers do not adequately represent the forces structure and capabilities and lead to uninformed debates in the press.

We should scale the force structure up or down (within necessary constraints) based on continuous assessments of the conditions and our evolving strategic interests.

Lastly, we should forward station forces as a hedge against uncertainty. The only thing we can be certain of is that some day in the future we will need the right forces and capabilities to conduct operations somewhere in the world to protect US national interests.

All that said, it is appropriate to negotiate burden-sharing agreements based on mutual interests and shared strategy. These agreements need to be fair and equitable and based on the incremental costs (e.g., the costs above what is required for the force if it were based in CONUS).  The agreement should also be based on any unique costs for stationing in a specific country. Such constructs as "cost plus 50%" or costs that include overlap with CONUS costs, or worse, that are above the CONUS costs should not be part of the negotiating strategy.

2. U.S. military commander says conditions aren't yet right for complete withdrawal from Afghanistan

Yahoo News · by Sean D. Naylor · June 10, 2020

The cynic in me says the conditions will never be right. Military planners and commanders are worst-case planners. They will take every aspect of a negative assessment for preparation for withdrawal as a reason to not conduct the withdrawal. In these cases we rarely heed the adage that perfect is the enemy of good enough. We should long ago have asked what is the acceptable, durable, political arrangement that will support US national interests? Have we achieved that political arrangement? If we can define that, then we can assess if we have the necessary conditions for withdrawal.

Some would say we achieved this long ago. Others would say to guarantee such a condition would mean we would have to keep a permanent force in place to prevent an attack.

The buried lede: the Taliban is penetrated by COVID-19. I was unaware of that but now that I consider it, it makes sense.

3. Perils Of proxy wars in Afghanistan: a comparative study of the ISI of Pakistan and the IRGC of Iran

EurasiaReview · by Dr. Khushnam P N* · June 10, 2020

Proxy warfare is going to continue to be a staple of the revisionist and rogue powers.  We need to understand it and be prepared to address it.

This is a view from India.

4. Twitter discloses propaganda campaigns tied to Russia, China

Bloomberg· by Alyza Sebenius · June 11, 2020

We must keep exposing the political warfare strategies of the revisionist and rogue powers. Information-based strategies supporting political warfare will remain the main effort in Great Power Competition even as we prepare for the worst-case conflict scenarios. And even if those worst-cases come to be realized, our adversaries will still be depending on information-based strategies to achieve success and consolidate gains. It is not all about the kinetic operations.

5. Twitter takes down Beijing-backed influence operation pushing coronavirus messages

Reuters · by Katie Paul · June 11, 2020

Again, let's continue to expose their strategy. And as illustrated by this case, it cannot be the government in the lead. Private companies have to act responsibly for the public good. I do wonder about the network that State has detected and what has happened to it since the article notes these sites were supposedly not affiliated with that network.

6. The shape of Asia's new Cold War

Project Syndicate· by Yoon Young-kwan · June 10, 2020

A Korean-view from our good friend, Professor Yoon Young-Kwan. This is useful analysis for US policy makers and strategists as well as an important critique of US positions and actions. Think about these words - to understand the nature of the coming conflict...

7. What U.S. withdrawal from the World Health Organization will mean

The Bulwark · by Shay Khatiri · June 11, 2020

Yes this is a strong critique of our administration and its policies. As I have said many times, I think it is a mistake to withdraw from the WHO. This is terrain on which we need to fight one of the many political warfare battles. We have to put the right people in these organizations who can fight our good fight.

8. The fall of the American counterrevolution

El Pais · by Bernard E. Harcourt · June 11, 2020

This is from the Spanish paper El Pais, but the author is an American professor at Columbia. I did not see this in any US media outlet (though I could have easily missed it as there are so many - but it came to one of my news feeds from El Pais). Although subheading focuses on President Trump, the author thinks that our militarization of the policy started back at least at the beginning of the war on terrorism. Since the author puts these in revolutionary, counter-revolutionary, and counterinsurgency terms, I think it might be useful for practitioners of small wars thinking.

What is “small wars thinking?" It is thinking about the human element in the full spectrum of competition and conflict up to and including conventional and nuclear war. It includes but is not limited to all aspects of lawlessness, subversion, insurgency, terrorism, political resistance, non-violent resistance, political violence, urban operations, stability operations, post-conflict operations, cyber operations, information and influence activities (e.g. information operations, public diplomacy, psychological operations, and military information support operations), working through, with and by indigenous forces and populations, irregular warfare, political warfare, economic warfare, alliances, diplomacy, and statecraft in all regions of the world.

9. Trump orders sanctions on international prosecutors for investigating alleged U.S. war crimes

Foreign Policy · by Robbie Gramer & Jack Detsch · June 11, 2020

A stronger response than I was expecting.

10. Vectoring special operations for great power competition

Diplomatic Courier · by Ethan Brown · June 4, 2020

While SOF will be an adjunct to the big kinetic fight if there is war among the great powers it plays a large role in Great Power Competition because the day-to-day competition will consist of irregular warfare, unconventional warfare, and political warfare.

Spoiler alert: the author thinks irregular warfare should be a domain. I know how that makes many people feel! He does not mention unconventional warfare or political warfare specifically.

But this is a contribution to the discussion.

11. US to pull troops from Germany, ex-ambassador Grenell confirms

Politico· by James Randerson · June 11, 2020

I suppose Mr. Grenell was giving his inside voice and articulating POTUS's true intent here. This is strategic suicide. I believe it was May 2016 when candidate Trump said he wanted to remove all troops from Korea. And, of course, he made similar remarks two years ago in Singapore in his remarks after the Singapore summit when he announced the suspension of military exercises in Korea, saying they are too expensive and that he wanted to bring home US troops.

12. Divided we fall: the United States needs international partners now more than ever

WarOnTheRocks · by Rep. Don Bacon · June 12, 2020

Alliances are a key element of national power. I know all four instruments of national power are concerned with alliances and it is the diplomatic instrument that is responsible for managing them. However, I think alliances are so important to our national security and our concepts for projection of power and military operations that we should raise the concept of alliances to an element of US national power: “DIME-A” (diplomatic, informational, military, economic, and alliances).

13. 'Show of force': US aircraft carriers patrol South China Sea for first time in 3 years

NZ Herald · AP · June 12, 2020

We tend to use "show of force" often. Here is the DOD definition. 

Show of force - An operation planned to demonstrate United States resolve that involves increased visibility of United States deployed forces in an attempt to defuse a specific situation that, if allowed to continue, may be detrimental to United States interests or national objectives. (JP 3-0)

14. Exploitative, transactional, coercive, cultural, and contractual: toward a better theory of proxy war

Modern War Institute · by Amos Fox · June 11, 2020

I give Major Fox credit for saying this: "proxy wars are today's dominant form of war." But he goes on to say it is hard to come by theories of proxy war and concludes that we need more literature focused on this type of warfare. I would have thought he would have discussed unconventional warfare, but he is an officer assigned to a Security Forces Assistance Brigade (SFAB) and UW does not fall under that organization's purview.

And of course we rarely take Clausewitz seriously enough ("one country may support another's cause, but it will never take it so seriously as it takes its own"). This is probably one of our strategic weaknesses.

15. The United States, China and 'the geography of the peace'

RealClearDefense · by Francis P. Sempa · June 12, 2020

16. Could Donald Trump's war against Huawei trigger a real war with China?

The National Interest · by Graham Allison · June 11, 2020

This is an ominous assessment.

17. China has designs on democracy in Southeast Asia

Foreign Affairs · by Sam Rainsy · June 10, 2020

This is the fundamental conflict - authoritarianism versus various forms of democracy. I listened to a speaker describe a theory of the Chinese challenge to democracy. Chinese nationals are settling in Cambodia and receiving Cambodian citizenship. They are settling in provinces in such numbers that they are becoming a majority voting block. Then they are using the democratic process to advance Chinese interests.

 “Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself.”

- Leo Tolstoy

“Always remember, however sure you are that you could easily win, that there would not be a war if the other fellow did not think he also had a chance.”

- Winston Churchill

“I believe that our national security lies not just in protecting our borders, but in bridging divides.”

- Joe Lieberman

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.

1. North Korea defectors push ahead with leaflet and aid campaigns despite South Korea legal threats

2. Cheong Wa Dae warns of tough crackdown on leaflet launches into N. Korea 

3. N. Korea 'ablaze with fury' over anti-Pyongyang leaflets: Rodong Sinmun

4. U.S. disappointed in N. Korea's recent actions to sever ties with S. Korea: State Dept.

5. North Korea ramps up vitriol toward South Korea

6. Gov't Reaps what it sowed from N.Korea

7. Gov't to sue activists for sending leaflets to N.Korea

8. North Korea warns US: Stay out of our affairs if you want a 'smooth election'

9. U.S. tests Nuclear 'Bunker-Buster' Bomb

10. N. Korea to U.S.: Don't meddle if you want smooth presidential election

11. North Korea TAKEOVER: Kim's sister astonishes experts with 'human scum' statement

12. North Korea leadership mystery fuelled as Kim Jong-un's sister makes statement

13. COVID-19 Crisis and Uncertainty of the North Korean Economy

14. South Korea's economic policies prepared it for the Coronavirus-North Korea's did not

15. U.N. official notes S. Korea's transparent public health surveillance for virus tracing

16. Resurgence of virus threatens South Korea's success story

1. North Korea defectors push ahead with leaflet and aid campaigns despite South Korea legal threats

Reuters · by Sangmi Cha, Josh Smith · June 11, 2020

I hope the government conducts itself with restraint and does not allow any harm these courageous Korean patriots. The South Korean government is making a huge mistake trying to stop these influence operations.

2. Cheong Wa Dae warns of tough crackdown on leaflet launches into N. Korea 

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · June 11, 2020

Please do not do this. Reverse course and provide support to these patriots. Do not do North Korea's bidding.

3. N. Korea 'ablaze with fury' over anti-Pyongyang leaflets: Rodong Sinmun

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 10, 2020

Interesting salutes at the North Korean rally in the photos below.

But there should be no doubt the North's actions are the result of the effects of influence operations and the threat these operations pose to the legitimacy of the regime and its very survival.

As Dr. Jung Pak often asks, "who does Kim Jong-un fear more? The US or the Korean people in the north?" My answer is the Korean people in the north when armed with information and the truth.

We should be doubling down on information and influence activities as part of a maximum pressure 2.0 campaign.

4. U.S. disappointed in N. Korea's recent actions to sever ties with S. Korea: State Dept.

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · June 10, 2020

The regime is trying to split the ROK/US alliance. Divide to conquer - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK. The regime is exposing its strategy.

5. North Korea ramps up vitriol toward South Korea

dailysignal.com · by Bruce Klingner · June 11, 2020

I think this is partly a survival mechanism. The regime has to divert attention from its internal pressure and threats and the best target to use is South Korea. Bruce Kilngner expects tension to rise in the coming weeks and months. I think that is a good bet.

6. Gov't Reaps what it sowed from N.Korea

english.chosun.com · June 10, 2020

The Chosun Ilbo editorial board says that the Moon administration has been "completely duped" by Kim Jong-un. I am happy that someone recognizes the regime's "long con" based on conducting its form of political warfare with Juche characteristics. But I have never seen a comment like this from a major newspaper's editorial board.

7. Gov't to sue activists for sending leaflets to N.Korea

english.chosun.com · June 11, 2020

Again, President Moon please reconsider. This is the action of a liberal democracy and free country. Do not deny the basic civil rights to your Korean citizens. This is what we must fight against in North Korea and China and other authoritarian states, Do not be duped by north Korean rhetoric.

8. North Korea warns US: Stay out of our affairs if you want a 'smooth election'

The Telegraph · June 11, 2020

We should take this as the direct threat that it is. This is another indicator that the regime is trying to split the ROK/US alliance. If the regime has the capabilities and plans to influence our elections, we should expect they will employ them whether we "stay out of Korean affairs" or not.

9. U.S. tests Nuclear 'Bunker-Buster' Bomb

english.chosun.com · by Cho Yi-jun · June 11, 2020

Useful IO here. The Koreans are exploiting this. Note Bruce Bennett's comments about employing against north Korean underground nuclear facilities. And Kim Jong-un should be very afraid of these weapons employed against his underground command posts.

10. N. Korea to U.S.: Don't meddle if you want smooth presidential election

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 11, 2020

Let's take this threat seriously. We do not want to take the Russsian threat seriously. But North Korea is telegraphing this threat and it likely has the cyber capabilities to make an impact. Perhaps if we work hard to defend against the north Korean threat we will also defend against the likely Russian, Chinese, and Iranian threats to our election process.

11. North Korea TAKEOVER: Kim's sister astonishes experts with 'human scum' statement

Express · June 10, 2020

She is a bold one, isn't she? I think we are going to have to take away her 2018 Olympic nickname as the Ibvanka of Ncorth Korea. It really does appear her stature is being raised. Perhaps she is being groomed for succession. As we know from escapees, she is the most trusted person by Kim Jong-un.

12. North Korea leadership mystery fuelled as Kim Jong-un's sister makes statement

dailystar.co.uk · by Anders Anglesey · June 10, 2020

Yes, it is a mystery. Kim Yo-jong and North Korea leadership remind me of this quote from Churchill. "It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian (or in this case north Korea) national interest." And I think we all know the regime's vital national interest, strategic aim, and ways and means to accomplish its ends (domination of the peninsula by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State).

13. COVID-19 Crisis and Uncertainty of the North Korean Economy

sejong.org · by Dr. Yang Un-Chul · June 10, 2020

An interesting summary.

14. South Korea's economic policies prepared it for the Coronavirus-North Korea's did not

The National Interest · by Thomas Byrne · June 10, 2020

On the face of it there should be no comparison, but this article does make an interesting comparison. I do not know about South Korean becoming a haven for foreign currency but the north's action to crack down on foreign currency is an indication that Kim was losing control of the economy in the North and the coronavirus provided an opportunity to make some changes and crack down on the use of foreign currency.

15. U.N. official notes S. Korea's transparent public health surveillance for virus tracing

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · June 11, 2020

We can learn from South Korea though there will be some challenges with surveillance methods that are not acceptable to Americans.

16. Resurgence of virus threatens South Korea's success story

AP · by Kim Tong-Hyung · June 11, 2020

And South Korea can also be a canary in the coal mine for the US. But it seems like we have lost interest in the coronavirus in the US.

-----------

"Without debate, without criticism no administration and no country can succeed and no republic can survive."

- John F. Kennedy

"The strongest bulwark of authority is uniformity; the least divergence from it is the greatest crime."

 - Emma Goldman 

"Evil does not just arise from nothingness, most of the time it is nurtured by society's failure to activate its moral standards"

- Aysha Taryam 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.

1.  Opinion | It's time to end China's 'United Front' operations inside the United States

2.  Five Eyes spy-alliance countries to 'co-ordinate' Covid-19 economic response

3.  U.S. seeks to house missiles in the Pacific. Some allies don't want them

4.  U.S.-Germany crisis goes deeper than Trump's planned troop cuts

5.  Dark Basin: Global Hack-For-Hire organization that targeted thousands over the years

6. Why the U.S. military hasn't made more progress on overcoming racism

7.  Total Defense, Revisited: An Unconventional Solution to the Problem of Conventional Forces

8.  What you need to know about private military contractors backing Libya's rebels

9.  Army 4-Star highlights some U.S. plans for warfare in 2040

10. Aggressive tactics by National Guard, ordered to appease Trump, wounded the military, too

11. The coronavirus pandemic isn't ending - it's surging

12. Outgoing U.S. ambassador to Germany defends troop withdrawal plan

13. Top US General in Mideast: 'I do worry about China quite a bit'

14. Zoom catches heat for shutting down China-focused rights group's account

15. Chinese sporting power couple issues rare rebuke of ruling communist party

16. State Department rebukes China as one of the worst abusers of religious freedom

17. India denies visas to U.S. panel on religious freedom, says it has no standing

18. Bolton plans to move forward with book despite new White House warning that it contains classified material

19. Special Ops: 'Further behind than we know' on New Tech

20. For a Grander Army of the Republic: Better Names for Bases

1.  Opinion | It's time to end China's 'United Front' operations inside the United States

The Washington Post · by Josh Rogin · June 10, 2020

I think since the end of the Cold War we have lost understanding of how communist regime's conduct subversion.

What is subversion?

* The undermining of the power and authority of an established system or institution.
    * As in: "the ruthless subversion of democracy"

2.  Five Eyes spy-alliance countries to 'co-ordinate' Covid-19 economic response

Stuff.co.nz · by Thomas Manch · June 10, 2020

Interesting. A view from New Zealand. Perhaps the Five Eyes is a concert of democracies. They are like minded and share the same values: freedom and individual liberty, liberal democracy, free market economy, and human rights. The Five Eyes offers an alliance of democracies to oppose authoritarian regimes. And opposition to authoritarian regimes (revisionist and rogue powers) must be conducted through effective political warfare and the economy system is one of the battlefields on which the competition will be contested. 

3.  U.S. seeks to house missiles in the Pacific. Some allies don't want them

Los Angeles Times · by David S. Cloud · June 10, 2020

This is a critical effort for future military capabilities, but it is a political minefield for us. 

4.  U.S.-Germany crisis goes deeper than Trump's planned troop cuts

Bloomberg · by Hal Brands · June 10, 2020

Professor Brands provides a very useful overview of troop withdrawals and the issues surround withdrawals.  

Although he goes back to the US troop withdrawal from Korea in 2004 as part of a realignment to fight the war on terrorism, we should look further back in time. Yes there has been a very slow and steady withdrawal of troops from Korea going back to when Carter wanted to withdraw all troops in 1978.

But what I think we should consider is the withdrawal from Europe after the end of the Cold War and following Desert Storm. We brought troops back and had to shoehorn many of them into already crowded installations and because we did not have enough space, we inactivated units or split them up among multiple installations. We were hoping for a peace dividend, but two things happened. We lowered our capabilities (remember the base force analysis and then the QDR process) and we had to spend much more on MILCON for the units we did retain. Professor Brands points out Rep Gallagher's correct assessment that when we bring back the 9,500 troops to the US, we will no longer have German support for funding so 100% of the costs will be borne by the US taxpayer. One thing we should recognize is that there will be no immediate cost savings by bringing US troops home and if we retain the forces intact in the US the American taxpayer will be stuck with a larger bill than they are currently paying. We should think about that. 

And one lesson we should remember is that we had to re-station forces in Europe again. Perhaps we should not have reduced the forces to the level we did. And one of the most important lessons is that when something we never anticipated (9-11) happened, bases and military units in Europe provided critical support and capabilities to prosecute the war on terrorism. 

Now I am all for rightsizing our force levels and footprints around the world. But the size of our forces overseas (and locations) should be based on thorough analysis to answer the question of how do we best posture our forces to support US national interests? We should be striving to have the right forces in the right locations to accomplish the right missions to support US national security. That could be more and it could be less and sometimes even less might be more!  But we should not be withdrawing forces for the wrong reasons which I fear we will do in Germany (and possibly Korea). 

5.  Dark Basin: Global Hack-For-Hire organization that targeted thousands over the years

NPR · by Hanna Rosin · June 9, 2020

The cyber battlefield is not contested just by the military and state or government organizations. We are all players on the cyber battlefield - from the corporate world to all of us as individuals. And hackers for hire are another form of the modern mercenary. 

6. Why the U.S. military hasn't made more progress on overcoming racism

PBS · by Bob Christie, Associated Press · June 9, 2020

An interview with retired Major General Dana Pittard and retired Brigadier General Remo Butler. 

7.  Total Defense, Revisited: An Unconventional Solution to the Problem of Conventional Forces

mwi.usma.edu · by Sandor Fabian · June 10, 2020

This is a very important concept for both deterring and defending against revisit powers. An effective resistance capability can create insurmountable problems for occupying powers especially if the resistance force receives external support.

The author references the Resistance Operating Concept pioneered by SOCEUR. Here is a link to a 13 page presentation on the concept. https://nsiteam.com/social/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/U-SMA-Brief-SOCEUR-Resistance-Operating-Concept.pdf

Here is a useful article on the concept: https://sof.news/uw/resistance-operating-concept/#:~:text=The%20ROC%20is%20a%20concept,Russia's%20Military%20Advantage.

Here is a JSOU 286 page report on the Resistance Operating concept: https://jsou.libguides.com/ld.php?content_id=54216464 

8.  What you need to know about private military contractors backing Libya's rebels

smallwarsjournal.com · by Crispin Burke · June 10, 2020

An excellent survey of Libya and PMCs (mercenaries) from Crispin Burke. A very complex situation that seems to be under the radar (at least from my perspective). 

9.  Army 4-Star highlights some U.S. plans for warfare in 2040

defensemaven.io · by Land · June 10, 2020 

10. Aggressive tactics by National Guard, ordered to appease Trump, wounded the military, too

The New York Times · by Thomas Gibbons-Neff · June 10, 2020

Politics aside this provides an interesting look at the National Guard in DC, command and control of the DC Guard and support from other states. Track the actions of First Lt. Malik Jenkins-Bey. This is another national security military event that will be studied in PME institutions for years to come. 

11. The coronavirus pandemic isn't ending - it's surging

The Washington Post · by Adam Taylor · June 11, 2020

I wonder how the US and the countries around the world are going to handle this. The coronavirus seems to no longer be on the national and international agenda except as a minor story. Have we become numb to the coronavirus crisis? 

12. Outgoing U.S. ambassador to Germany defends troop withdrawal plan

Reuters · by Paul Carrel · June 11, 2020

I think the Ambassador is mistaken. If those 9,500 troops return to the US and the units remain intact the cost to the American taxpayer will because 100% of the costs will be borne by Americans. And if there is no space on US military installations, there will be a rather large MILCON bill. 

13. Top US General in Mideast: 'I do worry about China quite a bit'

defenseone.com · by Katie Bo Williams · June 10, 2020

The General is correct to be concerned with China. Great Power Competition is not confined to the geographic location of the competitor. And the competition is going to take (and is already taking) many forms: political warfare, subversion, support to proxies, resistance, insurgent forces, economic warfare, espionage, etc., and a range of activities short of war or direct conflict with US forces. 

14. Zoom catches heat for shutting down China-focused rights group's account

WSJ · by Eva Xiao · June 11, 2020

But this is what we have to expect from Chinese controlled companies. This is what authoritarian regimes do. 

15. Chinese sporting power couple issues rare rebuke of ruling communist party

WSJ · by Chun Han Wong · June 10, 2020

That is three I think. A former Chinese basketball star, a soccer star, and a badminton star have now criticized the Chinese Communist Party. I know the Chinese service of VOA and RFA will be broadcasting this news into China. I do fear for the safety of these courageous people. 

16. State Department rebukes China as one of the worst abusers of religious freedom

The Washington Post · by Carol Morello · June 10, 2020

You have to suppress religion to maintain control and ensure the Chinese Communist Party remains unchallenged and in power. 

17. India denies visas to U.S. panel on religious freedom, says it has no standing

Reuters · by Sanjeev Miglani and Nigam Prusty · June 11, 2020

India is protecting its sovereignty. Cannot fault them for that. 

18. Bolton plans to move forward with book despite new White House warning that it contains classified material

The Washington Post · by Tom Hamburger and Josh Dawsey · June 10, 2020

A 592 page book. For all those former government and military officials who have had their manuscripts held up by classification reviews this one is for you. It will be interesting to see what they do to him if/when his book is published. I have re-ordered it from Amazon. It is scheduled for release on June 23, 2020. I wonder if the White House can/will block its release. 

19. Special Ops: 'Further behind than we know' on New Tech

breakingdefense.com · by Paul McLeary · June 10, 2020 

20. For a Grander Army of the Republic: Better Names for Bases

warontherocks.com · by Will Quinn · June 11, 2020

Another list of proposed names for US Army bases. However, it looks like the President will not even consider changing the names.

-----------

"Without debate, without criticism no administration and no country can succeed and no republic can survive."

- John F. Kennedy

"The strongest bulwark of authority is uniformity; the least divergence from it is the greatest crime."

 - Emma Goldman 

"Evil does not just arise from nothingness, most of the time it is nurtured by society's failure to activate its moral standards"

- Aysha Taryam