News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. Our message to U.S. is clear: Ri Son Gwon, Minister of Foreign Affairs of DPRK
2. North Korea vows to boost nuclear program, saying U.S. diplomacy failed
3. A crisis on the Korean peninsula reinforces the need for allies
4. Gov't throws book at leaflet campaigners
5. NKorea FM says optimism re US turned to nightmare
6. North Korea says Trump's 'empty promise' dashes hopes for deal
7. A North Korean ICBM test: would Kim Jong-Un really open Pandora's box?
8. China says U.S. should address North Korea's concerns
9. Kim Jong Un Is MIA. His sister is on the attack.
10. As tension rises, N. Korea seen moving missiles: report
11. S. Korea-U.S. missile defense exercise crucial for OPCON transfer: ministry
12. Military conducts scaled-down firing drill amid heightened tensions with N. Korea
13. N. Korea has quarantined 865 suspected COVID-19 cases
14. 50% of South Koreans support law banning sending anti-NK leaflets
15. Political dynamics of propaganda leaflets and inter-Korean relations
16. What's behind North Korea's dwindling defection rate?
17. Two years since Singapore: did Kim outplay Trump?
1. Our Message to U.S. is Clear: Ri Son Gwon, Minister of Foreign Affairs of DPRK
KCNA Watch · by KCNA.kp · June 12, 2020
This is the message that is responsible for most of the press reporting on North Korea today. This is the two-year assessment following the Singapore Summit of June 11, 2018. I think it is fair to say that the North Korean Minister of Foreign Affairs no longer appreciates President Trump's unconventional, experimental, top-down, pen-pal diplomacy.
The regime is upset because it failed in its long con to get sanctions relief while keeping its nuclear program. But the responsibility for "failure" lies on the shoulders of Kim Jong-un who has prevented any substantive negotiations with the US.
The Foreign Minister lists what the North has done:
1. Halted nuclear and ICBM testing (which is of course a requirement of the sanctions).
2. A "total shutdown" of its nuclear test site (questionable - and this was a major Chinese demand).
3. Repatriation of scores of US POW/MIA remains (a real slip here - does this mean the regime is admitting that it kept US POWs after the war and they died in captivity? We should demand an accounting of POWs of the US and South Korea and other UN forces. We should also remember that the regime has some 200 remains ready for repatriation, but they only allowed some 50 to be returned).
4. A special pardon for the convicted felons of US nationality who were held in detention.
And you have to appreciate the description of the above measures.
As you read the following press, refer to the words here. The one significant point is that this message did not come from Kim Jong-Un, Kim Yo-Jong, the United Front Department, or the Workers Party of Korea. There is the ability to walk this back somewhat if it suits the regime's long con.
2. North Korea vows to boost nuclear program, saying U.S. diplomacy failed
The New York Times · by Choe Sang-Hun · June 11, 2020
I think Kim Jong-Un might be trying to execute his own maximum pressure campaign that will be based on conception, extortion, and blackmail diplomacy.
3. A crisis on the Korean peninsula reinforces the need for allies
The Hill · by Christopher R. Hill · June 11, 2020
We will not be successful against North Korea without a strong alliance structure, particularly our alliances with Korea and Japan. And we need cooperation between Korea and Japan.
4. Gov't throws book at leaflet campaigners
The Chosunilbo · by Lee Yong-Soo · June 12, 2020
This is so troubling. A liberal democracy like South Korea should not be infringing on the freedom of speech and expression. I think the Ministry of Unification has wanted to halt the operations of escapees/defectors for some time. Unfortunately, it miscalculated by responding to Kim Yo-Jong’s demands within 4-5 hours. And I know the citizens in the frontline areas (Kangwha Island and Paju) fear North Korean retaliation, but South Korea must stand up to the North and not appease it. The South's actions will not engender any goodwill from the North and certainly will not influence it to change its behavior. And we should consider that these information and influence operations are in support of human rights. The UN Commission of Inquiry recognized the regime's prevention of freedom of information in the north as a major human rights abuse. No one should be standing in the way of getting information to the Korean people in the North.
5. NKorea FM says optimism re US turned to nightmare
Asia Times · by AT Contributor · June 12, 2020
People are asking when will the President be able to use the words of Gerald Ford (adapted for use toward North Korea): "My fellow Americans, our long national nightmare is over..."
6. North Korea says Trump's 'empty promise' dashes hopes for deal
Bloomberg · by Jeong-Ho Lee · June 12, 2020
Empty promise? One thing the foreign minister is explaining to us is that our promise – that if Kim makes the rights strategic decision, there can be a brighter future in the North – is a threat to the regime. Giving up nuclear weapons is a threat to the survival of the regime. And a brighter future is equally a threat, because it means engagement, opening, and information. Remember that Kim fears the Korean people in the North more than the US and if we read between the lines, the regime is under enormous pressure for failure to get sanctions relief as well as because of the regime's economic measures in response to the coronavirus. I really think we have to pay close attention to the indications and warnings in Pyongyang. Storm clouds could be gathering.
7. A North Korean ICBM test: would Kim Jong-un really open Pandora's box?
The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · June 11, 2020
Will he or won't he test? There are more extremes. He could put a nuclear warhead on it and detonate in the atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean. We should ask what does Kim thinks would be the US response? He is looking at two likely ones: first is a fear of the fire and fury of 2017 - he may think the US will take decisive action. But he is also looking at the lack of significant US and South Korean response to the 20 plus missile and rocket tests since May of 2019 to the present. He is trying to determine if he has created a new normal that will allow him to push the envelope and not draw a decisive response. And he is trying to determine whether – if he conducts a test – POTUS would respond because of the belief that it would help his re-election campaign. Kim needs to be cautious and not miscalculate or misread POTUS.
8. China says U.S. should address North Korea's concerns
Reuters · by Gabriel Crossley, Se Young Lee, & Alex Richardson · June 12, 2020
I cannot speak Chinese, but let me take a stab at interpreting what the Chinese are saying here. In short: the US must lift sanctions on North Korea.
9. Kim Jong-Un is MIA. His sister is on the attack.
The Daily Beast · by Donald Kirk · June 11, 2020
Again, is she being groomed for succession?
Kim Jong-Un appears to be continuing the new work schedule. Work one day and take about 3 weeks of holiday. I guess that is why Kim Yo-Jong is filling in for him.
10. As tension rises, N. Korea seen moving missiles: report
The Korea Herald· by Choi Si-Young · June 11, 2020
I have not seen much open source reporting on this.
11. S. Korea-U.S. missile defense exercise crucial for OPCON transfer: ministry
Yonhap News Agency · by 오석민 · June 11, 2020
Well that first paragraph is disappointing. How can the missile defense exercise be crucial to OPCON transition and not be part of an integrated missile defense system? Does the ROK think it is going to have OPCON of US missile defense systems but that there will be no integrated missile defense? Obviously, Korea is walking a tightrope because of Chinese demands that there be no integrated missile defense, no new THAAD deployments, and no trilateral ROK/US/Japan alliance. But, China does not get to vote on South Korean security measures, alliance issues, and self defense measures, unilateral and combined.
12. Military conducts scaled-down firing drill amid heightened tensions with N. Korea
Yonhap News Agency · by 최수향 · June 11, 2020
It is good that we are conducting readiness training, but it is the wrong message to either actually scale it down or to say that it is scaled down. We need to demonstrate strength and resolve to North Korea and not react to their rhetoric. The best way to protect South Korea is to demonstrate strength and will. Any appearance of appeasement only emboldens the regime.
13. N. Korea has quarantined 865 suspected COVID-19 cases
Daily NK · by Jang Seul-Gi · June 12, 2020
This is the first open source report I have seen in quite a while. This would seem like a significant number of cases that could cause a widespread outbreak.
A friend of mine provided this advice: if you want to find COVID in North Korea, look at those places where food shortages are most acute – wherever those may be.
14. 50% of South Koreans support law banning sending anti-NK leaflets
The Korea Times · by Jung Da-Min · June 11, 2020
This saddens me.
15. Political dynamics of propaganda leaflets and inter-Korean relations
The Korea Times · by Jung Da-Min · June 11, 2020
Yes, this is complex domestic political issue. But I think that is due to the Moon Administration's view of North Korea and its peace strategy. It fails to recognize the true nature of the Kim family regime, its strategy, and the terrible human rights abuses being committed by the Korean people living in the North. And finally, it is based on the misguided belief that stopping the information flow will somehow cause the regime to change its behavior.
Note the photo of our good friend, Suzanne Scholte. She is doing more to support the escapees and their information and influence activities than nearly anyone else.
Lastly, the ROK government needs to protect these escapees who are under threat from their fellow Korean citizens (as well as continued threat from the North). They have been receiving death threats.
16. What's behind North Korea's dwindling defection rate?
The Diplomat · by Abhinav Seetharaman · June 10, 2020
The regime crackdowns began well before the coronavirus, but the measures put in place to defend against the virus also impact escaping from the north.
But the author also postulates that improved "economic hope" has decreased the desire to escape. Hmmm...?
17. Two years since Singapore: did Kim outplay Trump?
CSIS · by Victor Cha & Sue Mi Terry · June 11, 2020
President Trump's unconventional, experimental, top down, and pen-pal diplomacy versus Kim Jong-'s "long con" in support of this political warfare strategy with Juche characteristics.
But my answer to the title question is “no.” For all the criticism of President Trump (and President Moon), the major failure for Kim Jong-Un is that sanctions have not been lifted. In this way, Kim has not outplayed 100%. Perhaps only 50%, because while sanctions remain in place, critics will point to the regime's continued development of the North's nuclear and missile programs.
But Kim will only "win" if he gets sanctions relief without giving up his nuclear weapons.
“Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself.”
- Leo Tolstoy
“Always remember, however sure you are that you could easily win, that there would not be a war if the other fellow did not think he also had a chance.”
- Winston Churchill
“I believe that our national security lies not just in protecting our borders, but in bridging divides.”
- Joe Lieberman