Small Wars Journal

06/03/2020 News & Commentary – National Security

Wed, 06/03/2020 - 11:59am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.

1. Mobilizing the military for domestic operations: some legal considerations

2. Seeking information on individuals inciting violence during First Amendment-protected peaceful demonstrations

3. Defense officials backtrack on Trump's claim that Gen. Milley is 'in charge' of military response to violent protests

4. New psychology research finds extreme protest actions reduce popular support for social movements

5. Pentagon says guard did not tear-gas protesters; Downplays role in militarized response

6. Is it revolution? (the civil unrest in the US)

7. Guard troops in DC say they want to 'give people the opportunity to express their First Amendment rights'

8. Presidents and 'presidents'

9. Beijing flexes its muscles - and Washington better get ready

10. Special operators in Syria are First American Unit to use computerized sights on their rifles

11. Philippines suspends abrogation of defense pact with US

12. Hard-core agents provocateurs infiltrate US protests

13. Viruses: Biological versus computer

14. The Overmilitarization of American Foreign Policy 

15. A (resignation) letter to Defense Secretary Mark Esper 

16. 'I wish you the best': US military adviser resigns after Trump's controversial photo op at church

17. Three strategists walk into a bar

18. The Pen is mightier than the Sword? - SOF Need Both

 

1. Mobilizing the military for domestic operations: some legal considerations

sites.duke.edu · by Charlie Dunlap, J.D. · June 2, 2020

From one of the military's best legal minds. And we should all take heed this advice.

2. Seeking information on individuals inciting violence during First Amendment-protected peaceful demonstrations

fbi.gov

A PSA, just in case when you are out at the protests and you come across suspicious persons. Consider the concept of "pseudo operations" adapted for the current civil unrest: "Pseudo operations are those in which government forces disguised as guerrillas, normally along with guerrilla defectors, operate as teams to infiltrate insurgent areas. This technique has been used by the security forces of several other countries in their operations, and typically it has been very successful." https://publications.armywarcollege.edu/pubs/1712.pdf 

Rather than government forces consider extremist groups infiltrating as protestors. Also consider members of extremist groups infiltrating security reports such as the report here in LA. A person was arrested in full kit appearing to be a national guard soldier. https://www.foxla.com/news/armed-man-in-military-apparel-arrested-on-assault-weapon-charges-in-downtown-la

3. Defense officials backtrack on Trump's claim that Gen. Milley is 'in charge' of military response to violent protests

taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol

The Chairman is the senior military advisor to the President and SECDEF. As I wrote yesterday:

The CJCS is not in the chain of command by law. https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/163. The President and the Secretary of Defense are in command (or what we used to call the National Command Authority). The Chairman cannot exercise military command over the Joint Chiefs of Staff or any of the armed forces.

10 U.S. Code § 163. Role of Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff

(a)Communications Through Chairman of JCS; Assignment of Duties.-Subject to the limitations in section 152(c) of this title, the President may-

(1) direct that communications between the President or the Secretary of Defense and the commanders of the unified and specified combatant commands be transmitted through the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; and

(2) assign duties to the Chairman to assist the President and the Secretary of Defense in performing their command function.

10 U.S. Code § 152 Chairman: appointment; grade and rank (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/152#:)

(c)Grade and Rank.-

The Chairman, while so serving, holds the grade of general or, in the case of an officer of the Navy, admiral and outranks all other officers of the armed forces. However, he may not exercise military command over the Joint Chiefs of Staff or any of the armed forces.

4. New psychology research finds extreme protest actions reduce popular support for social movements

psypost.org · by Eric W. Dolan · May 30, 2020

The referenced study can be downloaded here: https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2020-02398-001.

This is why everyone should read and study the works of Gene Sharp Robert Helvey. I commend all to read Gene Sharp's From Dictatorship to Democracy. https://www.aeinstein.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/FDTD.pdf.

5.  Pentagon says guard did not tear-gas protesters; Downplays role in militarized response

defenseone.com · by KATIE BO WILLIAMS

I thought it was odd. If tear gas had been used, I would have thought we would have noticed the entourage experience some of the residual effects since they walked through the area where the tear gas was allegedly used only a short time after. We should have seen people tearing up or coughing lightly as they felt the residual effects but from the media footage it did not appear anyone experienced anything.

And so it looks like the CJSC and SECDEF walked into a media ambush and were not aware of the photo op.. Not that this is the equivalent of what happened to the Chairman and SECDEF but I had a similar experience in Baslian when we were in the Philippines in 2002 for OEF-P I went to meet the Provincial Governor, Wahab Akbar who was a founding member of the terrorist group the ASG who have been given amnesty rehabilitated and then democratically elected the Governor. As we were meeting in his office, he called an aide and in walked a large group of media with cameras and microphones and he proceeded to hold an impromptu press conference. I will never forget his statement as he was standing next to me telling the press how happy he was to have American Special Forces deployed. He said the people of the Philippines were rescued from the Japanese by the Americans and now they were going to be rescued from the terrorists.  He said it was fitting because both the Japanese and the terrorists were known for cutting off the heads of Filipinos. Needless to say it was not a good look for us, I did not make a statement and fortunately the press stories never got legs.

6. Is it revolution? (the civil unrest in the US)

National Review Online · by Michael Brendan Dougherty · May 31, 2020

If we are going to talk about revolution, I commend these resources to all for study. The Assessing Revolution and Insurgent Strategies (ARIS) project from the US Army Special Operations Command provides the intellectual foundation for understanding revolution and resistance. The numerous studies can be accessed at this link: https://www.soc.mil/ARIS/ARIS.html

7. Guard troops in DC say they want to 'give people the opportunity to express their First Amendment rights'

militarytimes.com · by Howard Altman · June 2, 2020

The troops are on message. But our National Guard troops across the country are being given one of the hardest missions. I have tremendous respect for our citizen soldiers. I just hope our active soldiers are not deployed for domestic operations against civil unrest.

8. Presidents and 'presidents'

The Hill · by Joseph Bosco, opinion contributor · June 2, 2020

I think Secretary Pompeo did the right thing with a strong statement congratulation President Tasi on her re-election. But this article is about the use of titles for national leaders. I think Joe Bosco (who always provides provocative insights) makes an interesting observation about the Washington Post. In a caption of photograph with a number of world leaders the Post identified Xi as "Chinese Leader" and not with a proper title as it did for all the other leaders. Most important, according to Joe, the Post did call him president.

9. Beijing flexes its muscles - And Washington better get ready

realcleardefense.com · by Bradley Bowman and Craig Singleton

From my colleagues Brad Bowman and Craig Singleton. US military supremacy in the Indo Pacific has eroded while Chinese strength has increased. The US and our allies cannot allow the balance of power to further erode.

10. Special operators in Syria are First American Unit to use computerized sights on their rifles

thedrive.com · by Joseph Trevithick · June 1, 2020

Perhaps modern warfare will become closer to a computer game. But seriously this is a fascinating capability. I just hope you do not have to reboot during a firefight - it would be terrible to get the blue screen while you are acquiring a target. (okay, please excuse the sarcasm).

Photos at the link.

11. Philippines suspends abrogation of defense pact with US

The Washington Post · by Jim Gomez | AP

Some good news for our alliance structure thought it never should have got to this point. I am sure US Ambassador Sung Kim and his country team did a lot of work to get this reversed as I am sure did many Philippine officials who value the RP-US alliance (the longest standing US alliance).

12. Hard-core agents provocateurs infiltrate US protests

asiatimes.com · by Christina Lin · June 2, 2020

This is a real threat: the infiltrators and agitators (on both sides of the political spectrum) who are hijacking the protests. This is subversion 101.

13. Viruses: Biological versus computer

asiatimes.com · by More by Mark Webb-Johnson · June 3, 2020

Very interesting comparison. We need cyber hygiene to protect us from computer viruses just as we need personal hygiene to protect us from biological viruses. We have to be prepared to fight computer viruses just as we have to be prepared to fight the next coronavirus.

14. The Overmilitarization of American Foreign Policy 

Foreign Affairs · by  Robert M. Gates · June 2, 2020

The military has to be in support until it has to fight a war, but even then, it still has to be in service of the political aim and that is not something that can be decided upon by the military. This should theoretically be why we need civilian control of not only foreign policy but the military as well: "If you concentrate exclusively on victory, while no thought for the after effect, you may be too exhausted to profit by peace, while it is almost certain that the peace will be a bad one, containing the germs of another war." B.H. Liddel-Hart. This quote requires civilian leadership and control.

We need balance and coherency not only among ends, ways, and means (strategy) but also with our instruments of national power. We need to have a holistic application of DIME-A - diplomatic, informational, military, economic AND Alliances. I think we need to consider Alliances as one of our key elements of national power. Our Alliance structure is also more than military. Alliances affect and require support from each of the other instruments.

Regarding Secretary Gates' comments about avoiding mission creep, General Zinni's quote is instructive. "Stay focused on the mission. Line up military tasks with political objectives. Avoid mission creep and allow for mission shifts. A mission shift is a conscious decision, made by political leadership in consultation with the military commander, responding to a changing situation." - General Anthony Zinni

Mission creep is a decidedly pejorative phrase. Mission shift results from challenging assumptions and assessment of changing conditions. But because of "mission creep" we have sometimes paralyzed ourselves and refused to adjust the mission (or to rebalance the ends, ways, and means of strategy) for fear of being charged with mission creep.

15. A (resignation) letter to Defense Secretary Mark Esper 

The Washington Post · by James N. Miller · June 2, 2020

A resignation letter from James N. Miller. He is a former defense official and current member of the Defense Science Board (which I believe is just an advisory position). This is not at the level of a current defense official or a military officer resigning in protest. I do wonder if HR McMaster will write a 21st Century part 2 of Dereliction of Duty to assess the actions of senior leaders (military and civilian) taking principled stands against policies. And this needs examination through all three administrations of the 21st Century from 9-11 to the present. I only recall one 3 star quietly resigning over Iraq and a handful of moderately high level government officials who have resigned since 9-11.

16. 'I wish you the best': US military adviser resigns after Trump's controversial photo op at church

Business Insider · by David Choi

A follow- up to Miller's resignation letter published in the Washington Post.

17. Three strategists walk into a bar

mwi.usma.edu · by Michael Symanski · June 2, 2020

This is an excellent thought piece. I am keeping this one in my files. This should provoke some good discussion in our PME institutions.

18. The Pen is mightier than the Sword? - SOF Need Both

sof.news · by SOF News · June 2, 2020

The entire military needs both as do our civilian government agencies (well they may only have pens and not swords). But we need people to write, to share experiences, to debate and discuss. Small Wars Journal will continue to provide that platform, especially for authentic new voices.

The above PSA aside this article is really about our ability to" lead with influence" (my words) versus kinetic operations (we need both applied in the right order and correct balance for each unique operation and appropriate for existing conditions - to achieve the "integration of effects").  

This is why I like to frame special operations in terms of two "SOF Trinities:" irregular warfare, unconventional warfare, and support to political warfare and the comparative advantage of SOF: influence, governance, and support to indigenous forces and populations. 

But we fear leading with influence and information. Recall the words of a PSYOP officer to me at Leavenworth (short course not the long one): It is easier to get permission to put a hellfire missile on the forehead of a terrorist than it is to get permission to put an idea between his ears.

 


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"Before a war military science seems a real science, like astronomy; but after a war it seems more like astrology."

- Rebecca West

 

"I don't know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."

- Albert Einstein (1879-1955) 

 

"War is too serious a matter to entrust to military men."

- Georges Clemenceau

 
 

06/03/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

Wed, 06/03/2020 - 10:45am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.

1. Pentagon accepts S. Korea's proposal to fund labor costs for Korean USFK workers on furlough

2. S. Korea will push ahead with cross-border projects to prepare for post-coronavirus era

3. The conspiracy against ex-president Park Geun-hye

4. Ex-USFK commander worries N. Korea will soon launch ballistic missile submarine

5. Use of medical helicopters to target protesters a 'foolish' violation of norms, experts say

6. FDD | Trump's New China Strategy Must Focus on International Organizations

7. Coronavirus substantially hampers humanitarian efforts in N. Korea: Red Cross official

8. The Pandemic And Korean Foreign Policy In The Event Of The Dissolution Of The U.S.-ROK Alliance

9.  Embattled China Now Picks Up A Fight With South Korea Over Missile Defence System, Here's Why It Is Scared

10. US, South Korea Agree to Fund Furloughed Workers on US Bases

11. Well-connected dollar trader in Chongjin arrested (north Korea)

12. Army chief visits war remains excavation site in DMZ 

13. 5.18 and the Tyranny of Power (South Korea)

14. Memories of American veterans of the Korean War

 

1. Pentagon accepts S. Korea's proposal to fund labor costs for Korean USFK workers on furlough

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · June 3, 2020

As I said this is just a band aid. A stop gap solution. It will not stop the bleeding in the alliance. We need a 5 year agreement that is truly fair and equitable.

2. S. Korea will push ahead with cross-border projects to prepare for post-coronavirus era

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 2, 2020

Perhaps now is a good time to review President Moon's "peace strategy." The Moon administration remains remarkably consistent with the strategy. The question is whether this is a realistic policy given the nature of the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime.

Moon Jae-in's Policy on the Korean Peninsula

https://www.unikorea.go.kr/eng_unikorea/policylssues/koreanpeninsula/principles/

3. The conspiracy against ex-president Park Geun-hye

asiatimes.com · by Jason Morgan · June 2, 2020

This is a fascinating account. The authors make the point the this has had a devastating impact on trilateral diplomacy. But they conclude with a bombshell accusation.

4. Ex-USFK commander worries N. Korea will soon launch ballistic missile submarine

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · June 3, 2020

This article is derived from webinar hosted by the Korea Defense Veterans Association held on June 2, 2020. It featured General Walter "Skip" Sharp and Gen Jung, Seung Jo wo served together as the CINC and DCINC of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command. The one hour video can be viewed at this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VaWsynXSo6Q&feature=youtu.be

The webinar is very useful as the discuss crisis action procedures for the ROK/US CFC and they provide very insightful background on a number of issues from how the command works, the OPCON transition process, the relationship to the UN Command. Any member of the press or public with an interest in the alliance would benefit from watching this.

5. Use of medical helicopters to target protesters a 'foolish' violation of norms, experts say

The Washington Post · by Alex Horton · June 2, 2020

I cannot imagine anyone sanctioning the use of MEDEVAC bird for a demonstration or show of force. (if that is what it is was doing). I wonder if there was a MEDEVAC operation taking place some in the vicinity or if it was simply on station to be ready for one.

There is video at the link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2020/06/02/helicopter-protest-dc/

6. FDD | Trump's New China Strategy Must Focus on International Organizations

fdd.org · by Richard Goldberg Senior Advisor · June 2, 2020

From my colleague at FDD, Rich Goldberg.  As I have written we must compete on the political warfare battlefield and international institutions are key terrain on that battlefield.

7. Coronavirus substantially hampers humanitarian efforts in N. Korea: Red Cross official

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 3, 2020

Still no confirmation of an outbreak of the coronavirus. Giving north Korea the benefit of the doubt, despite the IRC saying it must remain neutral and therefore cannot comment on the possibility of an outbreak, if they had knowledge of an outbreak, I suspect that information would leak out. So perhaps the regime has done a good job preventing an outbreak through the application of its draconian population and resources control measures.

8. The Pandemic And Korean Foreign Policy In The Event Of The Dissolution Of The U.S.-ROK Alliance

Forbes · by Scott Snyder · June 3, 2020

A warning from Scott Snyder. And a recommendation for South Korea is the alliance dissolves. And, like Scott, I certainly hope it does not. The effects of a dissolved alliance will be catastrophic.

Scott offers an analysis of some of the major friction points of the alliance and then provides some objective recommendations for the ROK should the alliance end.

I would just remind everyone that according to the 1953 Mutual Defense Treaty to withdraw from the treaty (and thus the alliance) requires a one year notice. But I wonder if there is mutual agreement would they immediately terminate it. "This Treaty shall remain in force indefinitely. Either Party may terminate it one year after notice has been given to the other Party." https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/kor001.asp

But we should think about this: How long would it take to withdraw all US military forces, equipment, dependents? How much would it cost? And where would we station it?

As a former US senior leader once said at a conference there is one thing we do well. If someone asks the US to withdraw its military the US will do it and do it as fast as possible. South Korea should examine the Philippines situation (though in that example we did not end the RP-US alliance)

9.  Embattled China Now Picks Up A Fight With South Korea Over Missile Defence System, Here's Why It Is Scared

swarajyamag.com · by Swarajya Staff · June 3, 2020

Hmmm... China is scared? That is an interesting perspective. I have some different views on China's renewed attack on the ROK over THAAD.

I think China is exploiting the current US-PRC friction and is using the THAAD issue as an attempt to create problems for the ROK/US alliance and for the US. This is political warfare being conducted by the PRC. What I think China told Moon in 2017 was no additional THAAD deployment (which I interpret to mean additional launchers and batteries. Note this was not a deployment of any additional systems, only a rotation and replacement of missiles that must be done periodically - the old ones must be serviced so they can be rotated again in the future).  

The system is designed to track missiles that are inbound to the ROK. Yes, its radar range does extend into China; however, THAAD is only effective in defending against missiles that will attack the ROK. If China is concerned about this, does China intend to attack the ROK with missiles? THAAD does not attack surface targets and cannot fire into China. Also, China has no standing to deny the ROK and the US the right of self-defense. These are self-defense weapons.  

It is very likely China will conduct economic warfare against the ROK as part of its overall political warfare strategy. The US failed to support the ROK during the original deployment of THAAD when China began its economic warfare campaign. It will try to coerce the ROK to move away from the US and into China's sphere of influence and THAAD will provide them the opportunity to try to succeed at that. China is exploiting multiple conditions (coronavirus, US-PRC trade war and emerging 21st century cold war order, and continuing ROK/US alliance friction due to SMA, OPCON transition, and differing strategies toward North Korea as well as domestic political upheaval in both the ROK and US). China senses opportunities to practice its "three warfares" - psychological warfare, legal warfare, and media or public opinion warfare. Exerting economic pressure on the ROK is one element that will have significant psychological effects on the government and the population. China seeks to bend Korean will toward China.

If China initiates another economic warfare campaign against the ROK, the US, as an alliance partner, needs to help defend against it and it will need to provide economic support to the ROK.

Korea remains the proverbial shrimp among whales. You cannot change geography and it is geography that causes the biggest problem for Korea - it is too close to its security challenges (enemies) and too far from its allies. Security and the economy are inextricably linked. South Korea is going to have to decide in which sphere of influence it wishes to reside. But if Korea chooses its economy over security, it will soon be dominated indirectly and possibly directly by the Chinese Communist Party's authoritarian system. It will also become extremely vulnerable to North Korean subversion, coercion, extortion and use of force that seeks to dominate the entire Korean peninsula under the rule of the Kim family regime. The ROK government and Korean people have to think hard about with whom they are going to align. A false prosperity under communist indirect or direct influence or remaining a free liberal democracy that is secure and that can adjust its economy to be resilient and to defend itself from Chinese economic and political warfare. The ROK must understand and respond to Chinese and North Korean strategies if it wishes to remain a free and prosperous nation.

Lastly, every commander of the ROK/US CFC has said the ROK has already made the choice between the US and China in 1953 when it signed the Mutual Defense Treaty. But we cannot take that for granted. And I am afraid the US does take the alliance for granted which is why we forced THAAD on the ROK (for very good military and defense reasons) but we did not protect it from China's economic warfare. The US takes it for granted by trying to extort more money from the ROK for burden sharing. And I do not think China respects the ROK. It sees it as a target of opportunity to expand its influence and undermine the US.

10. US, South Korea Agree to Fund Furloughed Workers on US Bases

voanews.com · by William Gallo

My comments below.

11. Well-connected dollar trader in Chongjin arrested (North Korea)

dailynk.com · June 3, 2020

An indicator the regime is trying to crack down on foreign currency to control its economy. But what is interesting is this trader allegedly refused to pay the normal bride to prevent his arrest. Did she think her husband's membership in "Department 11" would provide protection from the MSS? I am sure she knew better than that. In the end this reads like a beef between the MSS and this woman.

12. Army chief visits war remains excavation site in DMZ 

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · June 3, 2020

Again, an illustration of the shared values of the ROK and US. Arrowhead ridge was the site of a bloody and long fighting between UN and South Korean forces and Chinese and North Korean forces as part of the Iron triangle. In the area was the Battle of Heartbreak Ridge, the Battle of White Horse and Pork Chop Hill, among others. The Arrowhead Ridge area was always hard to get to because it straddled the Military Demarcation Line in the DMZ. The excavation operations are the result of the September 19th Pyongyang Declaration and the Comprehensive Military Agreement. These excavations were supposed to be joint, but the north has refused to participate and instead constructed a new building(s) on the North side to observe the work of the South Korean military conducting the excavations.

13. 5.18 and the Tyranny of Power (South Korea)

onekoreanetwork.com · May 22, 2020

This is quite a critique of the 5.18 movement in Korea with some unique criticism of President Kim Young Sam.

14. Memories of American veterans of the Korean War

donga.com · June 2, 2020

This is really an OpEd about trust and it makes critical comments about Korean society. According to the Donga Ilbo editorial board, Korea is moving backward.

 


-----------

"Before a war military science seems a real science, like astronomy; but after a war it seems more like astrology."

- Rebecca West

 

"I don't know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."

- Albert Einstein (1879-1955) 

 

"War is too serious a matter to entrust to military men."

- Georges Clemenceau

 

6/2/2020 News & Commentary - Korea

Tue, 06/02/2020 - 10:29am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Kim is back, but North Korea still isn't stable

2. North Korea denies US hacking accusations

3.  North Korea's police state hints at virus victory

4. N. Korea's main paper highlights leader Kim's love for people

5. North Korea: bombshell evidence shows Kim Jong-un's sister 'will rule hermit state'

6. Kim Jong-un fury: how North Korean leader's 'executed' girlfriend reappeared

7.  Burden-sharing talks are distracting Washington and Seoul from the North Korean threat

8. Donald Trump should switch to cooperation as Kim Jong Un emphasizes confrontation

9. After containing covid-19, South Korea primed for Israeli innovation

10. S. Korea expects to become formal member of expanded G7: Cheong Wa Dae

11. Yoon pressures North Korean defectors to return to North Korea

12. Who Is Park Eunmi? North Korean woman smuggled herself to China in search of better future

 

1. Kim is back, but North Korea still isn't stable

Foreign Policy · by Duyeon Kim and Leif-Eric Easley · June 1, 2020

We must continue to observe the indicators and discern the relative stability within North Korea, because if it suffers from internal instability the effects could be catastrophic. No one should wish for collapse, but we had better be prepared to deal with it. The authors are correct here: it is internal politics that will drive Kim Jong-Un’s decision making and it is imperative the ROK/US alliance be strong and prepared to respond to what happens next in Pyongyang. And I would add we need to be proactive through our own superior form of political warfare to influence internal decision making.

 

2. North Korea denies US hacking accusations

Cyberscoop.com · by Jeff Stone · June 1, 2020

Admit nothing, deny everything, and make counteraccusations. North Korea doth protest too much.

 

3.  North Korea's police state hints at virus victory

Asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · June 1, 2020

Has it "beaten" the virus or has it just used its extraordinary population and resources control measures and specifically the ability to control information and prevent any knowledge of an outbreak from getting to the outside world?

 

4. N. Korea's main paper highlights leader Kim's love for people

En.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 2, 2020

The words of all dictators. Somehow I do not think Kim Jong-un is a benevolent dictator. I suppose he expresses his "love" through Songbun, the social classification system that divides the people into 51 classes. Perhaps he does "love" those who demonstrate personal loyalty to him (because that is the only way to survive and "advance" as well as any can advance within that society). Or perhaps he expresses his love through the "rule of threes" - if anyone demonstrates disloyalty to the regime that person and three of his or her generations will be sent to the gulags (or worse). I am just not seeing a "whole lotta love" (apologies to Led Zeppelin) from Kim Jong-un and the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime.

 

5. North Korea: bombshell evidence shows Kim Jong-un's sister 'will rule hermit state'

Express · by Josh Saunders · June 2, 2020

Spoiler alert: the author thinks it is because she heads up the Propaganda and Agitation Department. That does not sound like bombshell evidence to me, though I suppose that it is the type of headline that might come from Kim Yo Jong's organization.

 

6. Kim Jong-un fury: how North Korean leader's 'executed' girlfriend reappeared

Express · by Charlie Bradley · June 1, 2020

Typical North Korea. Whenever you hear about the execution or purge of North Koreans, you need to take it with a grain of salt. They could very well be "resurrected" or rehabilitated at some future date.

 

7. Burden-sharing talks are distracting Washington and Seoul from the North Korean threat

The Washington Post · by Ami Bera and Victor Cha · June 1, 2020

We have to fix this. But I fear our transnational alliance relationships are here to stay and that is not good for our alliance structure and US national power.

But we have to understand that neither the US nor the ROK will be successful in dealing with North Korea unless their actions rest on the foundation of strong ROK/US alliance. And our demands on burden sharing are undermining the alliance. Transaction-based or an alliance built on shared interests, shared values, and shared strategy?

And we can never forget that the North poses an existential threat to the ROK and that it is a US national interest to deter a war on the peninsula. 

 

8. Donald Trump should switch to cooperation as Kim Jong Un emphasizes confrontation

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · June 1, 2020

Cooperation is code for lifting sanctions. Cooperation is a one-sided with North Korea getting all the benefits while providing no reciprocal actions. And an arms control regime is exactly what Kim Jong-un would like to secure victory for his blackmail diplomacy strategy (provocations and increased tension to gain political and economic concessions). Kim would like arms control negotiations because that would be an admission that the North is a nuclear power (and it enhance his reputation and make him feel he is a co-equal to the US like the USSR was during the Cold War). This would mean his long con, supported by his political warfare with Juche characteristics, will achieve his short term and interim goals of lifting sanctions and keeping his nuclear weapons (while of course his long term goal remains to dominate the peninsula and bring it under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State).

 

9. After containing covid-19, South Korea primed for Israeli innovation

Algemeiner.com · by Allon Sinai / CTech · June 1, 2020

 

10. S. Korea expects to become formal member of expanded G7: Cheong Wa Dae

En.yna.co.kr · by Lee Chi-dong · June 2, 2020

I wonder if there is going to be any friction within the G7 about "growing it." There certainly is over the proposal to bring Russia back into it. But will the addition of South Korea and other countries be accepted? Usually, before such announcements are made, there is diplomatic coordination behind the scenes to prepare the environment for the action. Has that happened in this case or are we shooting from the hip?

 

11. Yoon Pressures North Korean Defectors to Return to North Korea

One Korea Network · June 2, 2020

It is impossible for me to imagine anyone in South Korea who would pressure an escapee to return to the North. This truly saddens me. Yoon Mi-hyang is a real piece of work.

 

12. Who Is Park Eunmi? North Korean Woman Smuggled Herself to China in Search of Better Future

Ibtimes.sg · by Bhaswati Guha Majumder · June 1, 2020

Another incredible person and story. Video included.

 

 “To teach is to create a space, not to fill it.”

- Parker Palmer

“What an astonishing thing a book is. It’s a flat object made from a tree with flexible parts on which are imprinted lots of funny dark squiggles. But one glance at it and you’re inside the mind of another person, maybe somebody dead for thousands of years. Across the millennia, an author is speaking clearly and silently inside your head, directly to you. Writing is perhaps the greatest of human inventions, binding together people who never knew each other, citizens of distant epochs. Books break the shackles of time. A book is proof that humans are capable of working magic.”

- Carl Sagan

“History teaches us that wars begin when governments believe the price of aggression is cheap.”

- Ronald Reagan

6/2/2020 News & Commentary - National Security

Tue, 06/02/2020 - 9:51am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore

1. Americans should fight propaganda, like we used to

2. The COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitics

3. The coronavirus is raising the likelihood of great-power conflict

4. Estonia already lives online. Why can't the United States?

5. Pompeo signals impending action against ICC for investigating alleged U.S. war crimes

6. Hong Kong security law: China weighs risk US will go for 'nuclear option' and cut Beijing from the dollar payment system

7. Hong Kong police are spraying protesters with blue-dye water cannons to mark them for arrest later

8. How to compete with China without going to war

9. Trump says the top U.S. military officer is 'in charge' as George Floyd protests rock the nation

10. Russia and China target US protests on social media

11. Joint chiefs vision changes military education philosophy

12. Pompeo says U.S. considers welcoming Hong Kong people, entrepreneurs

13. China delayed releasing coronavirus info, frustrating WHO

14. Presidents have leeway to use military for domestic purposes

15. As virus toll preoccupies U.S., rivals test limits of American influence

16. The death of globalisation has been announced many times. But this is a perfect storm

17. Don't bring a knife to a gunfight with China

18. With scenes of police brutality, America's beacon to the world winks out

19. Closing the generational divide on supporting democracy

20. Eli Lilly begins first human tests of an antibody drug against Covid-19

 

1. Americans should fight propaganda, like we used to

Defenseone.com · by Tara Sonenshine · June 01, 2020

The author was in the previous administration so there is some bias against the current administration. But the key point is we have to compete well in the information space. It is a strategic imperative. Today it takes of whole of society effort to fight propaganda. I know it is cliché to say that, but we are soldiers on the psychological warfare battlefield.

I hate to beat the dead horse, but the fundamental concept for defeat of propaganda is in our National Security Strategy on page 14. All Americans, Republicans, Democrats, and Independents should all embrace these words and internalize them without regard to partisan beliefs.

 

2. The COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitics

Strategy Bridge · by James L. Regens and John S. Beddow · June 1, 2020

This is a long read that provides a good overview of the pandemic up to this point. It asks the tough question of what will be the geopolitical balance post COVID-19.

Note how prescient were the words of the Global Trends 2025. 

 

3. The coronavirus is raising the likelihood of great-power conflict

Defenseone.com · by Barry Pavel · June 01, 2020

Yes, deterrence is critical at this time. While we can increase military operations, deployments and presence, our deterrence is undermined by the perception of the US being distracted by the coronavirus as well as the current civil unrest. In addition, there is significant friction within our alliance structure. How do our adversaries assess the current US conditions and balance that against our demonstrated military capabilities? I think we need to ponder that if we are going to assess our deterrence.

 

4. Estonia already lives online. Why can't the United States?

Defenseone.com · by Nina Jankowicz · June 01, 2020

An interesting question. Which leads to three others: can we build the secure infrastructure for the size of our population? Should we do so, given the potential security risks? Can we learn from Estonia?

I think it is interesting that the Internet evolved with convenience as the primary consideration, not security. We have a whole generation that has grown up online. But we did not grow up with security as the primary focus. When my daughter went off to college and she had to use two-factor authentication, she complained to me that it was inconvenient. I explained universities were targets for foreign cyber attacks and they must protect their networks. If we want to go online, we need to invest in "cyber civil defense" with the whole of society taking responsibility, because we can all be conduits for penetration of networks. And we need to instill the good practices of personal cyber hygiene to protect ourselves. Yes, we can develop technology to protect us on many levels. But, in the end the cyber domain is a human endeavor and the human is both the biggest strength and weakness. Maybe if we do that we could then live online like Estonia.

 

5. Pompeo signals impending action against ICC for investigating alleged U.S. war crimes

Politico · by Quint Forgey · June 01, 2020

What the article does not mention is that ICC is supposed to investigate crimes when a government cannot or will not investigate. The US investigates alleged crimes by its military forces. And the irony is the prosecutor is using the information from actual US investigations already completed to try to develop their case against US personnel. The actions by the ICC prosecutor are political, based on her agenda, and do not seem to follow proper procedure of the ICC governing charter. There are so many crimes out there committed in countries with little to no rule of law that need investigating. But instead the prosecutor seems to be only interested in going after the US. I can only surmise she is doing this for the publicity and fame.

 

This action by the ICC puts US military and government personnel at risk. If the ICC indicts an American, he or she will be unable to travel to any country that will extradite them for trial at the ICC.

 

6. Hong Kong security law: China weighs risk US will go for 'nuclear option' and cut Beijing from the dollar payment system

South China Morning Post · by Karen Yeung and Zhou Xin · June 01, 2020

I am not an economist but would this be cutting off our nose to spite out face?  I guess this would be economic warfare on a "nuclear scale."

 

7. Hong Kong police are spraying protesters with blue-dye water cannons to mark them for arrest later

Insider.com · by Isobel Asher Hamilton · June 01, 2020

I wonder if the Hong Kong citizens will use the "I am Spartacus" technique and cover all citizens with blue dye. We should check with Gene Sharp's From Dictatorship to Democracy to see about non-violent responses to these PRC techniques for population and resources control measures.

 

8. How to compete with China without going to war

Ozy.com · by John McLaughlin · May 29, 2020

McLaughlin makes some good points, but I think he left out one key point. If we want to successfully compete with China, we should follow Sun Tzu: "Thus, what is of supreme importance in war is to attack the enemy's strategy. Next best is to disrupt his alliances by diplomacy. The next best is to attack his army." We need to expose and attack the CCP strategy and, although it has only one alliance (North Korea). we can certainly apply the concept to China's relationships through its one belt one road concept. If we defeat his strategy and disrupt his relationships, we can win without fighting. We need understand that we are competing through political warfare.

 

9. Trump says the top U.S. military officer is 'in charge' as George Floyd protests rock the nation

CNBC · by Amanda Macias · June 1, 2020

The CJCS is not in the chain of command by law. The President and the Secretary of Defense are in command (or what we used to call the National Command Authority).

I suppose paragraph (2) can be interpreted that the President can assign duties to the CJCS to be put in charge. But it seems like the law prohibits him being given command per Section 152.

 

10. Russia and China target US protests on social media

Politico · by Mark Scott · June 1, 2020

We are all vulnerable targets during this period of civil unrest. And Russia and China (and Iran and even North Korea) must be ecstatic over the opportunities presented by radical groups on both sides from ANTIFA to White Supremacist groups.

 

11. Joint chiefs vision changes military education philosophy

Defense.gov · by Jim Garamone · June 1, 2020

 

12. Pompeo says U.S. considers welcoming Hong Kong people, entrepreneurs

Reuters· by Humeyra Pamuk and David Brunnstrom · June 1, 2020

 

13. China delayed releasing coronavirus info, frustrating WHO

AP · by The Associated Press · June 2, 2020

A long read. Can China buy its way out of its negligent actions with a $2 billion contribution to the WHO? And are we ceding influence to China over an important international institution? With China's negligence it should be an opportunity to expose China's strategy and influence and counter it. 

 

14. Presidents have leeway to use military for domestic purposes

AP · by Eric Tucker and Lolita C. Baldor · June 2, 2020

But probably not with the CJCS in command.

 

15. As virus toll preoccupies U.S., rivals test limits of American influence

The New York Times · by David E. Sanger, Eric Schmitt, and Edward Wong · June 1, 2020

It is not just the coronavirus, but also internal civil unrest, economic upheaval, stepping back from international organization(s), and a weakened alliance structure all provide opportunities to the revisionist and rogue powers to erode US power and influence.

 

16. The death of globalisation has been announced many times. But this is a perfect storm

The Guardian · by Adam Tooze · June 2, 2020

Of course Mark Twain had some thoughts on premature death. However, this sums up the situation quite succinctly.

 

17. Don't bring a knife to a gunfight with China

Strategy Bridge · by T.S. Allen · June 2, 2020

Very interesting analysis. It needs to be discussed in detail and the author spends the essay providing important discussion. 

The question is how do our armed forces support the conduct of political warfare? The armed forces play a supporting role, but I think part of what the author is calling for is a political warfare strategy - based on national statecraft - to effectively compete with China short of war.

As an aside, this is one reason why we need to continue Small Wars Journal - to provide a platform for a large number of diverse voices (especially new ones) to provide their contributions to the discussion and debate.

 

18. With scenes of police brutality, America's beacon to the world winks out

Foreign Policy · by Colum Lynch, Robbie Gramer · June 1, 2020

The knives are coming out for our federal democratic republic. Has the great American experiment failed? I am not ready to accept that and I certainly hope Americans across the country are not.

 

19. Closing the generational divide on supporting democracy

Bushcenter.org · by Nicole Bibbins Sedaca · May 5, 2020

These are some shocking data points. The question I never see asked is what do people think will replace our federal democratic republic? And do we not still believe in our fundamental values of freedom and individual liberty, liberal democracy, free market economy, and human rights? What is the new social contract that people desire?

But I think Dr. Bibbins Sedaca sums it up well here and I would ask us all, are we ready to exercise our civic responsibility and civic duty?

 

20. Eli Lilly begins first human tests of an antibody drug against Covid-19

STAT · by Matthew Herper · June 1, 2020

Hopefully we will soon hear some good news.

 

 “To teach is to create a space, not to fill it.”

- Parker Palmer

“What an astonishing thing a book is. It’s a flat object made from a tree with flexible parts on which are imprinted lots of funny dark squiggles. But one glance at it and you’re inside the mind of another person, maybe somebody dead for thousands of years. Across the millennia, an author is speaking clearly and silently inside your head, directly to you. Writing is perhaps the greatest of human inventions, binding together people who never knew each other, citizens of distant epochs. Books break the shackles of time. A book is proof that humans are capable of working magic.”

- Carl Sagan

“History teaches us that wars begin when governments believe the price of aggression is cheap.”

- Ronald Reagan

6/1/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

Mon, 06/01/2020 - 11:38am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. S. Korea again gripped by church-linked cluster infections in greater Seoul area

2. N. Korea to permit smuggling over parts of Sino-NK border

3. Explained: why UN command found North and South Korea in violation of armistice agreement at border

4. N. Korean soldiers face punishment after breaking quarantine

5. North Korea emboldened: how Chinese gangs help and prop up Kim Jong-un's rogue state

6. Kim Jong Un demands money from North Korea's elite

7. Defense chief calls for border troops' watertight posture after N.K.'s DMZ gunfire

8. Remains of S. Koreans killed in Korean War to return home from Hawaii this month

9. N.Korea's Propaganda Machine Embraces Social Media

10. COVID-19: S. Korea's Celltrion aims to start in-human drug trial in July

11. N. Korea's state broadcaster reports on George Floyd's death

12. Surprise transport onto THAAD base sparks suspicions over upgrade or additional deployment

13. S. Korea to revise law on inter-Korean exchanges to allow N.K. firms to do business in South

14. Trump's S. Korea invitation to G7 summit

15. 40 years after Gwangju bloodbath, discussing North Korea's role is taboo in once-free South

 

1. S. Korea again gripped by church-linked cluster infections in greater Seoul area

En.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · June 1, 2020

South Korea is a microcosm for the world. We can see what happens when certain actions are taken or not taken and certain procedures are implemented or not implemented. I hope we can learn lessons from South Korea even if in some ways it is an apples and oranges comparison between South Korea and the US (or maybe it is a little closer than that - Macintosh apples versus Delicious apples). South Korea has shown the ability to "snap back" to the procedures necessary to halt these outbreaks.

 

2. N. Korea to permit smuggling over parts of Sino-NK border

Dailynk.com · by Jang Seul Gi · June 1, 2020

A North Korean non sequitur? If "smuggling" is permitted, how can it called smuggling? But I guess this is Kim Yo Jong's doing and another way to allow the people to raise money to buy the bonds to rid the economy of foreign currency. The irony of this is that it takes foreign currency to conduct smuggling operations. They want to make foreign currency illegal, but you have to buy the license for "smuggling" in foreign currency. Only in North Korea. I look forward to read the economic analysis by the economists who are experts in the North Korean economy - all four of them.

 

3. Explained: why UN command found North and South Korea in violation of armistice agreement at border

Indianexpress.com · by Neha Banka, edited by Explained Desk · May 31, 2020

According to reports in the South Korean press, the firing by the North did not appear intentional. Putting four 14.5mm rounds into the South Korean guard post seems like well-aimed deliberate fire. Perhaps the mistake was the order to fire, but I do not think four rounds hitting an obvious target can be considered a negligent discharge. 

 

The article does not really explain why the UN Military Armistice Commission (which is headed by a South Korean two star general) found South Korea in violation. I suppose it is because they must have ruled since South Korea did not return fire for some 30 minutes (due to a weapons malfunction) it was not consider in self defense. But, as noted, the South Korean military was not happy with the finding.

 

Do not be distracted by the statement that Syngman Rhee did not sign the Armistice in 1953. Technically, the US did not sign it either. The armistice was signed by the military representatives of each side, first by LTG William Henry Harrison as the representative of the UN Command (which included South Korean forces and 16 "sending states") and General Nam Il from the North Korean People's Army (NKPA). It was later signed by the Commander of the Chinese People's Volunteers and by Kim Il-Sung (not as head of state by as commander of the NKPA). The agreement did only four things. It called for a cessation of hostilities, it established the DMZ, it called on both sides not to attack the other, and it returned prisoners (which was arguably one of the most difficult negotiating points). The fact that Syngman Rhee did not sign the armistice has no real bearing on whether there will be a peace treaty. And the peace treaty should be between North and South Korea. UN Security Council Resolution 82 designated North Korea as the aggressor and called on nations to come to the aid of the South to protect its freedom. The US intervened under the authority of the UN and did not declare war on the North. Of course a peace treaty between North and South would be difficult because both country's constitutions claim sovereignty over the entire peninsula and all Koreans and neither recognizes the other. So signing a peace treaty would mean both would have to change their constitutions. Lastly the Armistice did one more important thing. In paragraph 60, it called for all parties to come together within 90 days of the signing of the Armistice to solve the "Korea question," which is the unnatural division of the peninsula. This is because the Armistice is a military agreement among military commanders and forces and there needs to be a political settlement, which must be negotiated and concluded by political leaders. There have been a number of attempts in particular by the North and South in 1991-1992 in which they signed two agreements of denuclearization and on reconciliation. But the North did not live up to either agreement, which is one indication of the regime's true intent - to dominate the peninsula under its rule.

 

4. N. Korean soldiers face punishment after breaking quarantine

Dailynk.com · June 1, 2020

So what is going on in North Korea? Is there a coronavirus outbreak? Did they prevent it? Have they contained it? Are they doing a good job containing the information about an outbreak? Or is an article like this an indication that they are having an outbreak or still fear one? Or are they using the coronavirus as an excuse to continue to impose draconian population and resources control measures? And then there is the question of stability within the North Korean Peoples Army. A coronavirus outbreak could devastate the military. What will that do to stability of a regime that is dependent on the coherency and support of the military? More questions than answers. We must be vigilant. 

 

5. North Korea emboldened: how Chinese gangs help and prop up Kim Jong-un's rogue state

Express · by Josh Saunders · May 31, 2020

This is new to me.  I am going to have to do some more research on Chinese gangs helping keep KJU in power.

 

6. Kim Jong Un demands money from North Korea's elite

Financial Times · by Edward White · May 31, 2020

We should be careful here. The article is talking about the donju or consumer class (or moneyed class), not the core elite who are members of the Kim family regime. For background here is a useful article: A consumer class wields new power in North Korea.

The regime is using the new bond scheme led by Kim Yo Jong to extract foreign currency from the donju class (and all Koreans). The catch 22 is without foreign currency they cannot "smuggle" goods and the nascent market economy (some 400+ markets) will not be able to thrive let alone survive. This is just another example of the regime not knowing how to operate an economy, yet many Koreans in the North know how a market economy does work.  

The buried lead in this article is from Daniel Wertz, who assesses the regime is using the coronavirus crisis as an excuse to tighten control of foreign trade and currency. The operative word being "control." The regime is trying to exert great control to prevent instability.

 

7. Defense chief calls for border troops' watertight posture after N.K.'s DMZ gunfire

En.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · June 1, 2020

Sometimes things don't translate perfectly. I am sure he did not mean "watertight" in the literal sense. I am sure he said something about maintaining the highest state of readiness. But note the comments about projects in support of the "peace initiatives," the majority of which take place in the vicinity of the DMZ.

 

8. Remains of S. Koreans killed in Korean War to return home from Hawaii this month

En.yna.co.kr · by Oh Seok-min · June 1, 2020

One of our shared values between the ROK and the US (along with liberty and individual freedom, liberal democracy, free market economy, and human rights). We honor our missing and dead and we do not stop the search for them.

 

9. N.Korea's Propaganda Machine Embraces Social Media

English.chosun.com · by Roh Suk-jo · June 1, 2020

Yes, North Korea is evolving and modernizing and realizing it must embrace modern technology in order to better control it. But for psychological operations professionals, this should be viewed as an opportunity for influence. We have to be able to penetrate and exploit the North's "intranet." And as Koreans in the North are used to social media and modern communication, they will be better prepared for unification.

 

10. COVID-19: S. Korea's Celltrion aims to start in-human drug trial in July

Gulfnews.com · by Reuters

I hope they can be successful. And soon!

 

11. N. Korea's state broadcaster reports on George Floyd's death

En.yna.co.kr · by 오석민· May 30, 2020

North Korea's propaganda about US civil unrest is not yet as aggressive as the Chinese propaganda, but I am sure we will see it increase.

 

12. Surprise transport onto THAAD base sparks suspicions over upgrade or additional deployment

En.yna.co.kr · by Oh Seok-min · June 1, 2020

This just pains me to read. It is really an indication of the precarious position of our alliance and both sides have caused problems regarding the THAAD deployment (stationing). The important point about this and the reason for the "surprise transport" is because the Korean government continues to allow Koran citizens to prevent normal logistical operations to occur to support the soldiers and units at this location. They are protesting THAAD (which is their right and should be allowed). But would should not be allowed are their actions that hinder the effective defense of the ROK from missile attack. And the soldiers at this location are living in relatively austere conditions that should be unacceptable to the Korean government as the host nation.

 

13. S. Korea to revise law on inter-Korean exchanges to allow N.K. firms to do business in South

En.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 1, 2020

I wonder how many businesses from the North would actually be allowed by the North to do business in the South.  And what if North Korean businesses that are under sanction or are known to use unsafe labor practices (or slave labor) do business in the South? I think this is probably more symbolic than anything, because I doubt the North will allow companies to do business in the South.

 

14. Trump's S. Korea invitation to G7 summit

Donga.com · June 1, 2020

This really illustrates the tightrope South Korea is walking. Korea is, as the proverb says, a shrimp among whales.

 

15. 40 years after Gwangju bloodbath, discussing North Korea's role is taboo in once-free South

Worldtribune.com · by WorldTribune Staff · May 29, 2020

This makes me sad. South Korea is a liberal democracy and I know the Korean people value freedom of expression, speech, press, assembly and religion. But to truly honor the democracy movement, all information should be allowed to be published and discussed, even if it goes against the political narrative and beliefs of the ruling party and current administration. A true liberal democracy will not prevent free speech and free press.

 

 “My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right.”

- Senator Carl Schurz (1829-1906)

“Too often we… enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

- John F. Kennedy

“No one understood better than Stalin that the true object of propaganda is neither to convince nor even to persuade, but to produce a uniform patter of public utterance in which the first trace of unorthodox thought immediately reveals itself as a jarring dissonance.”

- Alan Bullock, British historian

6/1/2020 News & Commentary – National Security

Mon, 06/01/2020 - 10:35am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. 'Beautiful sight' extends from HK to US: Global Times editorial

2. It's time to listen to the doomsday planners

3. China's growing belligerence is only hurting itself

4. China calls Trump's bluff

5.  Why are Russian mercenaries fleeing Libya?

6.  New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says

7. How John Brennan and Mike Pompeo left the U.S. blind to Saudi problems

8.  U.S.-China disputes growing harder to solve

9.  Photographer catches formation of C-130 transports flying through a California canyon

10. China using tactical situation on ground to its advantage: Mike Pompeo

11. Decode the concept of 'tianxia' to understand China's actions

12. Why Taiwan needs nuclear weapons

13. Trump, lacking clear authority, says U.S. will declare Antifa a terrorist group

14. 'Mr President, don't go hide': China goads US over George Floyd protests

15. Officials see extremist groups, disinformation in protests

16. Win without fighting

17. Defense spending post-coronavirus: how to walk and chew gum at the same time

18. Are we ready for the 'Burn-In' and the real robotic revolution? 

19. In his fight to change the Corps, America's top Marine takes friendly fire

20. Special Operations Command wants to put all mission data in a single pane of glass

21. President Trump is right on Afghanistan

 

1. 'Beautiful sight' extends from HK to US: Global Times editorial

The Global Times · Editorial · May 31, 2020

Here is a message from the Chinese Communist Party. We should think how we should respond. 

 

2. It's time to listen to the doomsday planners

DefenseOne.com · Mark Ambinder · May 31, 2020

To rehash Cohen and Gooch and their book, Military Misfortune, all (military) failures are result of three things: failure to learn, failure to adapt, and failure to anticipate.  

But how is our continuity of government planning? No one likes to talk about the worst case planning. 

In 1995-1996 when I was a student at SAMS, one of the planning exercises we did was for a domestic emergency, an earthquake, based on simulating the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-12 in the Midwestern United States. I think the military has thought more broadly than Mr. Pfeiffer has experienced.

But planning is one thing. Training and exercises is another. And getting the right people to participate in training and exercise is difficult at best. I believe one of the reasons why South Korea has done a good job with the coronavirus crisis was because the government ran a table-top exercise for a pandemic in December. Officials had worked through the problem in December and were ready to employ their training in January. As my football coach used to tell us: luck is when opportunity meets preparation. The South Koreans certainly had good luck.

 

3. China’s growing belligerence is only hurting itself

NewStatesman · by Jeremy Cliffe · May 31, 2020

We need to be careful when things seem too good to be true. It would be nice for this to come to fruition. But we should not become overconfident based on such statements.

 

4. China calls Trump’s bluff

Bloomberg · by Andrew Browne · May 31, 2020

I think it is a little more than calling a bluff.

 

5. Why are Russian mercenaries fleeing Libya?

defensemaven.io · by Peter Sucia, The National Interest · May 31, 2020

The title question is really not answered. I suppose the even shorter version is that they’re getting their butts kicked. 

 

6. New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says

Reuters · by 3 Min Read · May 31, 2020

We are going to get our hopes up with reports like these.

 

7. How John Brennan and Mike Pompeo left the U.S. blind to Saudi problems

Politico · by Douglas London · May 31, 2020

A long read. I know very little about Saudi Arabia so it is difficult for me to assess this article. But it is a fascinating read to me.

 

8. U.S.-China disputes growing harder to solve

The Wall Street Journal · by James T. Areddy and Chao Deng · May 31, 2020

We may be in for a long rough ride. I think the CCP will be taking advantage of every challenge to the US. China is likely to become even more aggressive and adventurous as the internal unrest across the US continues.

 

9. Photographer catches formation of C-130 transports flying through a California canyon

thedrive.com · by Tyler Rogoway · May 31, 2020

Fascinating photos. The C-130 is a great aircraft. Although I have jumped out of many, the coolest thing I have ever done is ride in the cockpit of an MC-130 of the 1st SOS as we flew through low level the mountains of Luzon flying from the Philippines back to Okinawa. It was an incredible ride, wearing NVGs and thinking we were going to fly into a mountaintop. It was lot different than riding in the back waiting to jump!

 

10. China using tactical situation on ground to its advantage: Mike Pompeo

ndtv.com · by Press Trust of India · June 01, 2020

 

11. Decode the concept of “tianxia” to understand China’s actions

Livemint · by Sandipan Deb · May 31, 2020

I was unfamiliar with the word tianxia but I understand the concept. But as a China hand has emphasized to me Chinese culture is more important than communism. Even if the CCP was not in power China would still be acting in a similar fashion.

 

12. Why Taiwan needs nuclear weapons

The National Interest · by Michael Rubin · May 31, 2020

It is hard for me to believe that we could advocate for much less allow a friend partner or ally to develop nuclear weapons.

 

13. Trump, lacking clear authority, says U.S. will declare Antifa a terrorist group

The New York Times · by Maggie Haberman · May 31, 2020

A terrorism scholar posted this important comment. (1) Only the SecState can designate a terrorist organization. And, then it has to be foreign, not domestic (2) Antifa is a dubious candidate for that distinction anyway (3) It is not an organization--& has no identifiable leader, C2 structure or finances to target (4) In recent days, both far right AND far left extremists have called for unrest & disorder.

I heard from a friend who attended the protests in an unnamed city and there were members of the Proud Boys agitating among the protestors.

 

14. ‘Mr. President, don’t go hide’: China goads US over George Floyd protests

The Guardian · by Helen Davidson · June 1, 2020

Chinese propaganda is making a direct attack on the President.

 

15. Officials see extremists groups, disinformation in protests

AP · by Colleen Long, Zeke Miller and Michael Balsamo · June 1, 2020

This article mentions some of the various groups that are suspected of contributing agitators to turn peaceful protests in riots. These groups are from both sides of the political spectrum.

 

16. Win without fighting

usni.org · by Hunter Stires · June 1, 2020

A maritime insurgency. I have wondered if China is not giving us the threats we want to prepare for (e.g., A2AD and major high end warfare) while it has no intention of fighting us conventionally.

 

17. Defense spending post-coronavirus: how to walk and chew gum at the same time

The Hill · by John C. Hulsman, opinion contributor · May 31, 2020

The author makes two points - the organizing principle should be around China's actions (and in my opinion an understanding of its strategy that has been exposed by the coronavirus crisis) and second is the importance of allies.

 

18. Are we ready for the ‘Burn-In’ and the real robotic revolution?

realcleardefense.com · by Michael D. Brasseur and Sean Trevethan · May 30, 2020

Singer's and Cole's new book is going on my "to read pile." The science fiction books of our youth are coming to fruition as mainstream novels and soon may be a reality. I recall a quote that said something like what the mind can perceive people can achieve. Science fiction can become reality.

 

19. In his fight to change the Corps, America’s top Marine takes friendly fire

Defense News · by David Larter · May 29, 2020

I hope the Commandant is thinking about Nietzsche as he tries to radically reform the Marine Corps amid the criticism. Hopefully the criticism and debate will sharpen his steel sword of reform.

 

20. Special Operations Command want to put all mission data in a single pane of glass

c4isrnet.com · by Nathan Strout · May 31, 2020

This made me chuckle. Acid tape? I think the author meant acetate, but I fear most of our young people have little experience with paper maps, grease pencils, and acetate.  

I wonder if anyone is looking at how this capability will support unconventional warfare, foreign internal defense, psychological operations, and civil affairs operations.

 

21. President Trump is right on Afghanistan

The National Interest · by William Ruger · May 28, 2020

Some might argue the US accomplished what it need to do when it conducted a punitive expedition in the fall of 2001 and early 2002.

 

My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right.”

- Senator Carl Schurz (1829-1906)

“Too often we… enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

- John F. Kennedy

“No one understood better than Stalin that the true object of propaganda is neither to convince nor even to persuade, but to produce a uniform patter of public utterance in which the first trace of unorthodox thought immediately reveals itself as a jarring dissonance.”

- Alan Bullock, British historian

5/31/2020 News & Commentary – National Security

Sun, 05/31/2020 - 12:25pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

1. Wars without end: why is there no peaceful solution to so much global conflict?

2. China Could Use More Populism by Matt Pottinger

3. The Inevitability of Tragedy review: a life of Henry Kissinger for our Trumpian times

4. Testing Is Key to Beating Coronavirus, Right? Japan Has Other Ideas

5. America's Geostrategic Triangle Tussle Takes Center Stage During the Coronavirus

6. Build a Better Blob: Foreign Policy Is Not a Binary Choice Between Trumpism and Discredited Elites

7. How to fix the WHO, according to an expert

8. If all you have is a sanctions hammer, every foreign policy issue looks like a nail

9. Now Is the Right Time for a Trade Agreement with Taiwan

10. We Need to Take China More Seriously-And That Means Being Humble

11. India and China are actually far from a war

12. Trump's Policy Changes on China Likely to Draw Pushback

13. Is Beijing preparing to decouple from the US?

14. Towards a Concept of Good Civilian Guidance

15. Final SFAB activates with upcoming missions in Asia, as Army plans a Pacific Pathways restart

16. Secret sacrifice: the agents who risked all behind Nazi lines

 

1. Wars without end: why is there no peaceful solution to so much global conflict?

The Guardian · by Simon Tisdall · May 31, 2020

The subtitle of this article says it all. Remember when we called the war on terrorism "the long war" and how much criticism that created.  But the study discussed in this article says 60% of the world's wars have lasted for at least a decade.  And Simon Tisdall asks the key question: Have these "long wars" (endless conflict) become normalized?  He covers a list of "small wars."  The question may be better framed: Why do small wars become long wars?  Perhaps we should examine that before we embark on the next small war.  I think LTG Fridovich offers a way for us to understand this phenomenon. 

"History shows us that wars of this nature are routinely "won" by the indigenous forces supported by a well-established, flat network of supporters, fighters and auxiliary. A disciplined, centralized command and control system coupled with a decentralized arm of execution and multiple means of support are their means for achieving a well understood political end state. This method has generally proven successful globally as long as the leadership is rapidly adaptable to changes on the multitude of global, regional, and tactical battlefields in which they operate." 

- LTG (RET) David Fridovich 

 

2. China Could Use More Populism by Matt Pottinger

Wall Street Journal – Matt Pottinger – May 29, 2020

An interesting perspective from our Deputy National Security Advisor.

 

3. The Inevitability of Tragedy review: a life of Henry Kissinger for our Trumpian times

The Guardian · by Lloyd Green · May 31, 2020

A review essay of a new biography of Kissinger.  Some good food for thought.

 

4. Testing Is Key to Beating Coronavirus, Right? Japan Has Other Ideas

The New York Times · by Ben Dooley · May 29, 2020

So, the emphasis was on contact tracing and containing small outbreaks based on testing only those with the most severe symptoms.  Was Japan good or just lucky?  Were the conditions in Japan unique or are there lessons to be learned?

 

5. America's Geostrategic Triangle Tussle Takes Center Stage During the Coronavirus

The National Interest · by George Beebe · May 28, 2020

Assumption to be challenged:  Would a less offensive American tone reduce Russian-Chinese cooperation against the US?

Question:  How much actually cooperation is there or is each exploiting the conditions caused by the other?

This is the buried lead that we must ponder: can "a deeply indebted and politically divided the United States ... sustain an unconstrained arms race and that the combined capacities of contemporary Russia and China represent a much more formidable opponent than the Soviet Union once did."  And if so how?

 

6. Build a Better Blob: Foreign Policy Is Not a Binary Choice Between Trumpism and Discredited Elites

Foreign Affairs · by Emma Ashford · May 29, 2020

This is an analysis of Ben Rhodes versus Hal Brands, Peter Feaver, and William Inboden.

The first thing that should be done is to do away with the name the Blob.  

Or maybe we need to get Steve McQueen to take on the Blob.  The trailer below seems to be a metaphor for today (mass hysteria, etc).

1958 Movie “The Blob” starring Steve McQueen

An alien lifeform consumes everything in its path as it grows and grows.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vtf5P1L-6M4

 

7. How to fix the WHO, according to an expert

Vox · by Jen Kirby · April 19, 2020

This was written before our decision to withdraw from the WHO but perhaps it provides some useful food for thought, even with criticism of the US.  I think it is a mistake to withdraw from the WHO.  We are ceding influence to China and retired from a key political warfare battleground.  We need to fight to reduce Chinese malign influence in international organizations.  Withdrawing from those organizations if not going to protect US interests.  We need to fight our superior form of political warfare.

 

8. If all you have is a sanctions hammer, every foreign policy issue looks like a nail

Washington Examiner · by Daniel DePetris · May 31, 2020

I hear this criticism a lot especially in terms of north Korea.  Maybe the malign revisionist and rogue powers are a bunch of nails?  But sanctions are one tool.  They support the   instruments of economic, diplomatic, informational, and even military instruments of power.  Most important they support policy and strategy. Rather than criticize sanctions perhaps we should examine the broader policies and the strategy.

Sanctions can be an effective tool on multiple levels.  But the question I always have if you do want to have sanctions or you advocate lifting of sanctions without compliance what malign behavior do you to tolerate or permit?  In north Korea's case do you want to tolerate the north's nuclear and missile program? Do you want to turn a blind eye to all the illicit activities conducted by the regime - drug trafficking, counterfeiting, overseas slave labor weapons proliferation?  Do you want to be complicit in the human rights abuses against the Korean people living in the north? 

On the other hand, do you think lifting of sanctions is going to change malign behavior of revisionist and rogue powers? 

 

9. Now Is the Right Time for a Trade Agreement with Taiwan

csis.org · by Senior Adviser (Non-resident), Simon Chair in Political Economy

As China hands usually mentor me, what are we willing to tolerate in terms of the PRC response to this? Is the benefit with the PRC response?

 

10. We Need to Take China More Seriously-And That Means Being Humble

The National Interest · by Christopher A. Preble · May 30, 2020

Being humble does not mean being weak or submissive.  The question implied in Chris' essay is what effects do we seek to achieve?  And then the follow-on question, what effects can we achieve?

 

11. India and China are actually far from a war

gulfnews.com · by Sanjib Kumar Das, Senior Pages Editor

I hope the headline is accurate.  We certainly do not want to see the effects of war between China and India.  But those who assume there will not be war violate Sun Tzu. "Do not assume your enemy will not attack, make yourself invincible." 

 

12. Trump's Policy Changes on China Likely to Draw Pushback

Wall Street Journal – Sha Hua – May 30, 2020

There will always be second and third order effects that will generate pushback. The question remains what effects do we want to achieve and how do we best protect our national interests?

 

13. Is Beijing preparing to decouple from the US?

South China Morning Post – Zhang Lin – 31 May 2020

An interesting question.  The author assesses the Chinese are preparing for a bigger economic problem when the decoupling occurs.

 

14. Towards a Concept of Good Civilian Guidance

warontherocks.com · by Alice Hunt Friend and Mara Karlin· May 29, 2020

You do have to love the basic conundrum outlined in this piece.  "The military wants objectives; civilian policy makers want options. Policy makers ask for options, the military asks what are your objectives."

One of the phenomena I have observed is that if the military does not receive objectives, they will make assumptions about those objectives in order to develop options.  Sometimes these assumed objectives become actual objectives (which is often a function of the adage, I do not know what I want until I see it).

This provides some very useful food for thought that should be discussed between civilian policy makers and strategists and military leaders and planners.

 

15. Final SFAB activates with upcoming missions in Asia, as Army plans a Pacific Pathways restart

armytimes.com · by Kyle Rempfer · May 29, 2020

I think now the SFABs have been or will be deployed in all theaters (unless they have not been deployed to EUCOM but I think they have for sure in CENTCOM and PACOM and will soon be deployed in SOUTHCOM and possibly AFRICOM).

I have to take some exception to GEN McConville's comments.  With all due respect one of the problems we have had since 9-11 is the false assumption that Foreign Internal Defense (FID) is s SOF-exclusive operation.  The fact is FID is a US government agency and military mission to advise and assist a host nation with its internal defense and development programs in order for the host national to defend itself from lawless, subversion, insurgency, and terrorism.  When the debate about Security Force Assistance (SFA) started around 2007-2008 some of our action officers did a comparison of FID doctrine and the proposed SFA mission.  The major difference ended up being FID was focused on internal threats to the host nation and SFA was included external threats.  Our recommendation was to revise FID doctrine to include external threats.  In a way that is what ended up happening (of course security assistance and security cooperation also have an external component).  The JCS Doctrine for FID (JP 3-22) describes the interrelationship between FID and SFA as well as Security Cooperation and Security Assistance. On page I-11.  It graphically describes Foreign Internal Defense and three overarching integrated security activities:

1. Indirect Support: Security Assistance Security Cooperation, Exchange Programs, Joint Multinational Exercises.

2. Direct Support (not involving combat operations): Civil-Military Operations, Military Information Support Operations, Logistic Support, Intelligence Cooperation, Operations Security, Cybersecurity Assistance, Security Force Assistance

3. Combat Operations (yes there is such a thing as Combat FID)

Security force assistance encompasses joint force activities conducted within unified action to organize, train, equip, rebuild/build, advise, and assist FSF in support of an HN's efforts to plan and resource, generate, employ, transition, and sustain local, HN, or regional security forces and their supporting institutions. This includes activities from the ministry level to the tactical units and the national security sector. 

https://www.jcs.mil/Portals/36/Documents/Doctrine/pubs/jp3_22.pdf?ver=2018-10-10-112450-103

 

16.  Secret sacrifice: the agents who risked all behind Nazi lines

The Guardian · by Gareth Rubin · May 31, 2020

Hopefully, BBC America will broadcast this as well. We can still learn much from the SOE (just as the OSS did and as we can learn from the OSS as well).

 

 

"History shows us that wars of this nature are routinely "won" by the indigenous forces supported by a well established, flat network of supporters, fighters and auxiliary. A disciplined, centralized command and control system coupled with a decentralized arm of execution and multiple means of support are their means for achieving a well understood political end state. This method has generally proven successful globally as long as the leadership is rapidly adaptable to changes on the multitude of global, regional, and tactical battlefields in which they operate." 

- LTG (RET) David Fridovich 

 

"I personally measure success in terms of the contribution an individual makes to her or his fellow human beings."

-Margaret Mead

 

"To tend, unfailingly, unflinchingly, towards a goal is the secret of success. But success? What exactly is success? For me it is to be found not in applause, but in the satisfaction of feeling that one is realizing one's ideal."

-Anna Pavlova

5/31/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

Sun, 05/31/2020 - 10:11am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

1. ROK-US disagree on exercises; OPCON transition may be delayed

2. How the Kim dynasty has brainwashed North Koreans for generations

3. N. Korea seeks to have Mount Paekdu listed as UNESCO global geopark

4. The demystification of Kim Jong-un

5. North Korea warning: Mystery object at nuclear sub launch site leaves analysts baffled

6. Ministry of Veterans Tells Korean War Hero General Paik Sun-yup No Burial Plot at Seoul National Cemetery

7. Most recent Covid-19 patients were in their 20s and 30s

8. In virus-hit South Korea, AI monitors lonely elders

9. S. Korea to talk with U.S. on G-7 invitation: Cheong Wa Dae

10. 12 pillars of peaceful Korean history

11. South Korea is likely to emerge from coronavirus a strong beacon for democracy

12. A Letter From Journalist Seong Sang-hoon, Arrested by the Police, Now Released, on Suppression of Free Speech, Growing China's Influence & More in South Korea

13. Kim Dae-Jung Center Sues An Escapee Lee Ju-Seong for Libel for His Book on Gwangju (5.18) Uprising and North Korean Involvement; Ruling Party Plans 5.18 Gag Law

 

1. ROK-US disagree on exercises; OPCON transition may be delayed

The Korea Times · May 31, 2020

Here it is.  This is the friction in the alliance we do not need.  To restore readiness levels of pursue OPCON transition solely because President Moon wants it completed during his Administration.  This is been on a slow boil since the agreement that the OPCON transition would be conditions based.  But when President Moon came into office, he wanted it time based (during his tenure).  This conflict has never been resolved.  A conditions-based transition is meant to account for the changes and reality of the conditions.  We lost two major exercises in the spring due to the coronavirus crisis.  We have gradually reducing readiness since June of 2018 an in attempt to support diplomacy with north Korea (as an aside our cancelation, postponement, and modifications of exercises to influence Kim Jong-un's decision to denuclearize the north had one single benefit that we should understand.  It showed us that these changes have no effect on Kim Jong-un's decision making and he offered no reciprocal confidence building measures. We should realize the folly of sacrificing readiness in pursuit of north Korean unicorns!)

But we are now at a point where we could experience a significant setback in the alliance.  Are we going to sacrifice readiness to support President Moon's political agenda?  I hope the Korean people realize the level of danger to South Korea is going to increase significantly if we allow combined readiness to continue to decline.  And it should be obvious the lack of agreement on the SMA/burden sharing demands creates further friction in the alliance.  Are we heading into a perfect storm?  And then there is the issue of the UN Command.  The recent investigation of the north Korean provocation (firing at the South Korean guard posts in the DMZ) did not sit well with the South Koreans. Koreans (now all in the north and growing in the South) want the UN Command to leave.  Some South Koreans think the US wants to use the UN Command as a "higher command” to control the ROK/US CFC after the OPCON transition.  That is an erroneous belief and cannot be done.  Anyone who thinks the UN Command will assume the lead in leading the forces if there are renewed hostilities simply does not understand the command relationships or the authority of the UN Command on the Korean peninsula.

Yes, I fear the perfect storm is on the near horizon.

 

2. How the Kim dynasty has brainwashed North Koreans for generations

New York Post · by Dana Kennedy · May 30, 2020

We need to understand north Korean propaganda and its narratives and their importance to the regime.

 

3. N. Korea seeks to have Mount Paekdu listed as UNESCO global geopark

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · May 31, 2020

Paektusan belongs to all Koreans despite it being hijacked for the north Korean narrative.

 

4. The demystification of Kim Jong-un

The Guardian · by Jonathan Bouquet · May 31, 2020

Yes, the Kim's cannot bend time and space.

 

5. North Korea warning: Mystery object at nuclear sub launch site leaves analysts baffled

Express · by Ciaran McGrath · May 31, 2020

Although this specific object may be a mystery there should be no doubt the regime seeks to develop and deploy an SLBM system to have a second-strike capability.  And this is another indication of the regime's intention to never give up its nuclear weapons program.  One correction on the title to the article.  The north has no nuclear power submarines (that we now of!).  And it has not yet perfected (and shown us) the ability to launch a nuclear weapon from a submarine (the operative word being "yet").

 

6. Ministry of Veterans Tells Korean War Hero General Paik Sun-yup No Burial Plot at Seoul National Cemetery

eastasiaresearch.org · by Dr. Tara O · May 30, 2020

This is very painful to read.  I hope the Moon administration fixes this.  Gen Paik is a Korean national hero.  This is really shameful.

 

7. Most recent Covid-19 patients were in their 20s and 30s

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

Hmmm.... I thought it only affects old people with underlying conditions.

 

8. In virus-hit South Korea, AI monitors lonely elders

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

Interesting concept.  And yes, this does create civil liberties concerns (with examples in the article - and not the comment companies will have an endless thirst for data). But on the other hand, could help to protect the lonely elderly.

 

9. S. Korea to talk with U.S. on G-7 invitation: Cheong Wa Dae

en.yna.co.kr · by 김보람 · May 31, 2020

A sign of respect for South Korea and its economic potential. I am afraid this gesture is not going to significantly help reduce the friction in the alliance.

 

10. 12 pillars of peaceful Korean history

The Korea Times · May 31, 2020

A short and interesting perspective on some Korean history.

 

11. South Korea is likely to emerge from coronavirus a strong beacon for democracy

ABC.net.au · May 30, 2020

A view from Australia.  There are many Korean conservatives who would disagree with this. But I do hope that the headline does come true.  The people have to decide.

 

12. A Letter From Journalist Seong Sang-hoon, Arrested by the Police, Now Released, on Suppression of Free Speech, Growing China's Influence & More in South Korea

eastasiaresearch.org · by Dr. Tara O · May 30, 2020

A highly critical letter.  It thanks two Americans who are voices of democracy for South Korea and highlights what some Koreans perceive as threats to democracy not only from within but also from China.  It details the personal experience of a journalist.  You do not read this kind of information in the US press and rarely in the English language Korean press, so most Americans are unaware of these issues unless they follow the writings of Dr. Tara O and Gordon Chang.

 

13. Kim Dae-Jung Center Sues An Escapee Lee Ju-Seong for Libel for His Book on Gwangju (5.18) Uprising and North Korean Involvement; Ruling Party Plans 5.18 Gag Law

eastasiaresearch.org · by Tara O · May 28, 2020

This provides an alternate view of Kwangu and what happens to those who oppose the current narrative and what happens when an escapee from north Korea provides his views.  People like Tim Shorrock and other north Korean apologists and the current administration discount any involvement by the north.  This exhibits a lack of understanding of the mission and activities of the north's United Front Department (Overt actions against the South and support to parties who are favorable to the north) and the 225th Bureau (covert action against the South by creating and supporting political opposition to the ROKG).

Yes, such an admission of north Korean support would seem to undermine the perceived legitimacy of the South's democracy movement as well as oppose the current administration's narrative.  But it does not have to.  The democracy movement was legitimate and did bring democracy to the South in 1987 and 1993 (first election of a civilian President).  The north's efforts actually failed in 1987 and 1993.  The north certainly did not want democracy to grow.  It wanted to subvert the Korean government and Korean society; the South Koreans were successful in bring a strong democracy to the South.  Of course, if you believe the north took a long term view the current divisions in South Korea may yet successfully subvert the South achieving a key north Korean objective.

 

 

"History shows us that wars of this nature are routinely "won" by the indigenous forces supported by a well established, flat network of supporters, fighters and auxiliary. A disciplined, centralized command and control system coupled with a decentralized arm of execution and multiple means of support are their means for achieving a well understood political end state. This method has generally proven successful globally as long as the leadership is rapidly adaptable to changes on the multitude of global, regional, and tactical battlefields in which they operate." 

- LTG (RET) David Fridovich 

 

"I personally measure success in terms of the contribution an individual makes to her or his fellow human beings."

-Margaret Mead

 

"To tend, unfailingly, unflinchingly, towards a goal is the secret of success. But success? What exactly is success? For me it is to be found not in applause, but in the satisfaction of feeling that one is realizing one's ideal."

-Anna Pavlova