News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Declaring an end to the Korean War won't bring peace

2. Pakistan-North Korea can route nuclear weapons tech via China-Turkey: German report

3. North Korea says it will counter 'nuclear with nuclear' over 'hostile' US policy

4. Why North Korea Needs Its Nukes

5. Inside 'Office 39': North Korea's illicit global smuggling network

6. Seoul's renewed focus on 'ending war' raises questions

7. S. Korea to introduce more early warning aircraft from overseas

8.  Brinkmanship unlikely to save North Korea from sanctions

9.  Pro-N. Korea paper slams Bolton, Abe for hindering inter-Korean reconciliation

10. US Forces Korea eases anti-coronavirus restrictions for Yongsan Garrison

11. Time to End America's 70 Year War with North Korea

12. N. Korea to install new surveillance cameras on Sino-NK border

13. N. Korea's propaganda media resumes condemning S. Korea

1. Declaring an end to the Korean War won't bring peace

donga.com · June. 27, 2020

Wise words from the Donga Ilbo editorial board.

2. Pakistan-North Korea can route nuclear weapons tech via China-Turkey: German report

Economic Times · By Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury, ET Bureau · June 25, 2020

We should remember that north Korea benefited from the A.Q. Kahn network and Chin has long been complicit in north Korea's nuclear program.

3. North Korea says it will counter 'nuclear with nuclear' over 'hostile' US policy

foxnews.com · by Brie Stimson · Fox News

We should keep in mind the north has specific demands to demonstrate the end of what it calls "US hostile policy:"  

1. End to the ROK/US alliance

2. Removal of US troops from the Korean peninsula.

3.  An end to US Extended Deterrence and the nuclear umbrella over the ROK and Japan.

4. Why North Korea Needs Its Nukes

Foreign Policy · by Doug Bandow · June 26, 2020

I would never bank a strategy on this assumption: "Which means it makes little sense for the United States to speak of deterring North Korea. Pyongyang would attack only if Washington struck first, because the result of any nuclear exchange would be North Korea's annihilation."  As usual I think articles like this misunderstand the nature of the KIm family regime.  This article places all the blame on US policy but does not recognize the evil nature of the Kim family regime and its strategy and objectives to dominate the Korean peninsula.  While I agree that we can and should assess policy and strategy and make changes the recommendations in this article are pure fantasy.

5. Inside 'Office 39': North Korea's illicit global smuggling network

New York Post · by Dana Kennedy · June 27, 2020

North Korea's Kim Jong Un vanishes, then pops up. Now, the portly despot is out of sight again, and that raises the question: Who's minding the store - the one that keeps him in booze and fancy wheels?

6. Seoul's renewed focus on 'ending war' raises questions

m.koreatimes.co.kr · June 26, 2020

An end of war declaration or even a formal peace treaty is not going to bring peace to the Korean peninsula.  Kim Jong-un and the Kim family regime do not want to co-exist with South Korea nor do they want any form of unification that does not result in the domination of the entire Korean peninsula by the regime.

We should be very clear about a number of things:

1. The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

2. Kim Jong-un is executing the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime.

3. In support of that strategy, Kim Jong-un seeks the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula. KJU is executing his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK.

4. The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and threats as well as the crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).

7. S. Korea to introduce more early warning aircraft from overseas

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · June 26, 2020

Good.  South Korea must improve its intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities.  (You can never have too much ISR!)

8. Brinkmanship unlikely to save North Korea from sanctions

m.koreatimes.co.kr · June 26, 2020

But there are those who argue that the regime's "acting out" is a cry for help and therefore we should make concessions to bring Kim to the negotiating table. The only thing that will accomplish is that Kim will confirm his blackmail diplomacy continues to serve the regime well and thus he will continue to 'act out" in the future to get concessions.  I am glad to read the world remains unconvinced of the regime's sincerity and therefore the sanctions are likely to last.

9. Pro-N. Korea paper slams Bolton, Abe for hindering inter-Korean reconciliation

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 26, 2020

Abe and Bolton make perfect targets for north Korea and its Propaganda and Agitation Department. 

10. US Forces Korea eases anti-coronavirus restrictions for Yongsan Garrison

Stars and Stripes · Kim Gamel · June 27, 2020

USFK appears to have set the US military standard for dealing with the coronavirus because decision making is based on the science and data.

11. Time to End America's 70 Year War with North Korea

hawaii.edu · by UH News · June 26, 2020

Just a reminder, the US never declared war on north Korea. We are not technically at war with the north.  We intervened under the authority of the UN to come to the aid of South Korea and its freedom from attack by the aggressor north Korea.  The US also did not conclude the Armistice.  General Harrison signed the Armistice was the military representative of the UN.

The two belligerents in the Korea civil war (and yes it is a civil war) were north and South Korea.  The UN Security Council resolutions designated the north as the aggressor.  Yes the US provided the bulk of the fighting forces (after the ROK) and China provided a "volunteer" force to aid the north.  However, any peace treaty should be between the north and South as the two main belligerents.  This of course is problematic because the constitutions of both the north and South do not recognize the existence of the other and each claims sovereignty over the entire Korean peninsula and the Korean people.  A peace treaty between the two would technically require changes to the Constitution.  This would be difficult to achieve in the South as there would be political opposition.  Kim could easily do it in the north; however, recognizing the existence of the South would undermine regime legitimacy and take away one of the fundamental national objectives - to complete the revolution on the peninsula and rid it of all foreign influence.  

So we are between the proverbial rock and a hard place.

12. N. Korea to install new surveillance cameras on Sino-NK border

dailynk.com· Mun Dong Hui · June 26, 2020

Maybe it is in preparation to resume Sino-north Korean trade but that is only an excuse for increase surveillance capabilities on the border for regime control of the Korean people living in the north. The regime is using the coronavirus crisis as an excuse to implement stronger and more draconian population and resources control measures that will likely not be lifted after the coronavirus subsides.  The north will be an even stronger surveillance state after the coronavirus. 

13. N. Korea's propaganda media resumes condemning S. Korea

donga.com · June 27, 2020

The "scorpion" strikes and the frog dies.  The regime cannot help itself. It is in its nature.  It is interesting that it is attacking the MOFA-State strategy working group. It must view it as effective in sustaining ROK/US combined strategy and thus is an element of a strong ROK/US alliance.

N. Korea's propaganda media resumes condemning S. Korea

-------------------
 

"Patience strengthens the spirit, sweetens the temper, stifles anger, extinguishes envy, subdues pride, bridles the tongue."

- George Horne

"A desk is a dangerous place from which to view the world."

- John le Carré

"Nothing exists except atoms and empty space; everything else is opinion." 

- Democritus

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Russia secretly offered Afghan militants bounties to kill troops, U.S. intelligence says

2. SECDEF seeks to reassure NATO over U.S. troop plans

3. Barr forms task force to counter 'anti-government extremists'

4. Spying on Americans: infamous 1970s White House plan for protest surveillance released | National Security Archive

5. Most U.S. Travelers will be barred from E.U. when bloc reopens

6. China's military provokes its neighbors, but the message is for the United States

7. Pakistan seeks relief from China over Belt and Road

8. China is more democratic than America, say the people

9. Violence by far-right is among US's most dangerous terrorist threats, study finds

10. System overload: can China's military be distracted in a war over Taiwan?

11. Trump signs order prioritizing job skills over college degree in government hiring

12. SOCOM's tech initiatives reflect old, new mission sets

13. U.S. curbs visas for Chinese officials over Hong Kong freedoms: Pompeo

14. Why is the Stars and Stripes military newspaper on Trump's chopping block?

15. A more resilient union - how federalism can protect democracy from pandemics

1. Russia secretly offered Afghan militants bounties to kill troops, U.S. intelligence says

The New York Times · by Charlie Savage · June 26, 2020

I have no words. Months ago we allegedly concluded this.

2. SECDEF seeks to reassure NATO over U.S. troop plans

Military Times · by Lorne Cook · June 26, 2020

Seems like a real challenge for the SECDEF. I do not envy the work he must do.

3. Barr forms task force to counter 'anti-government extremists'

The Washington Post · by Matt Zapotosky · June 26, 2020

I hope we learn from the past. Here is an article that was just released from the National Security Archives at GWU. Everyone should read this, and Congress and the American public need to ask the tough questions about this plan so we do not have happen again what happened in the 1970s.

Here are the subtitles of the article linked above:

• Nixon-era "Huston Plan" was too far-reaching even for J. Edgar Hoover
• Government sought more infiltration of Black political movements than FBI was already doing
• 50 years later, censors still hiding "sources and methods" for tracking Soviet-Chinese roles (and lack thereof) in antiwar movement

Are there parallels?  Have we learned from the past?

4. Spying on Americans: infamous 1970s White House plan for protest surveillance released

National Security Archive · June 25, 2020

Links to 29 documents for those who want to do some in-depth research.

5. Most U.S. travelers will be barred from E.U. when bloc reopens

The New York Times · by Matina Stevis-Gridneff · June 26, 2020

Can you blame the EU?  But it sure is tough to be lumped in with Russia and Brazil.

6. China's military provokes its neighbors, but the message is for the United States

The New York Times · by Steven Lee Myers · June 26, 2020

So what is the message?  What effects are they trying to achieve with these provocations? What is China's strategy and what do they really want to achieve?

7. Pakistan seeks relief from China over Belt and Road

The Financial Times · by Stephanie Findlay · June 25, 2020

This is the debt trap China sets for countries that participate in One Belt One Road. I hope the Global Engagement Center will exploit this and other stories to inform countries about the threat of One Belt One Road.

8. China is more democratic than America, say the people

Bloomberg · by Ben Schott · June 26, 2020

Some fascinating data. Take a look at the chart. The American statistics sadden me.

9. Violence by far-right is among US's most dangerous terrorist threats, study finds

The Guardian · by Jason Wilson · June 27, 2020

10. System overload: can China's military be distracted in a war over Taiwan?

National Defense University · by Joel Wuthnow · June 25, 2020

The 66 page report and EXSUM from INSS at NDU can be found at link.

11. Trump signs order prioritizing job skills over college degree in government hiring

USA Today · by Michael Collins · June 26, 2020

12.  SOCOM's tech initiatives reflect old, new mission sets

National Defense · by Yasmin Tadjdeh · June 26, 2020

No mention of the most important SOF mission sets: irregular warfare, unconventional warfare, and support to political warfare. It does mention MISO (AKA Psychological Operations) and the war of influence but does not mention governance or support to indigenous forces and populations. Except for PSYOP, none of the mission sets are technology centric (but even PSYOP should not be technology centric  - it must be focused on the cognitive and influencing the behavior and decision making of target audiences).

13. U.S. curbs visas for Chinese officials over Hong Kong freedoms: Pompeo

Reuters · by David Brunnstrom · June 26, 2020

14. Why is the Stars and Stripes military newspaper on Trump's chopping block?

The Washington Post · by the Editorial Board · June 26, 2020

I hope Congress will act to protect Stars and Stripes.

15. A more resilient union - how federalism can protect democracy from pandemics

Foreign Affairs · by Danielle Allen · July/August 2020

Is the United States' constitutional democracy fragile and unsteady?

 “No man has the right to be ignorant. In a country like this, ignorance is a crime.”

- Louis L’Amour

“Be extremely subtle, even to the point of formlessness. Be extremely mysterious, even to the point of soundlessness. Thereby you can be the director of the opponent’s fate.”

- Sun Tzu

"No one starts a war—or rather, no one in his senses ought to do so—without first being clear in his mind what he intends to achieve by that war and how he intends to conduct it."

- Clausewitz

“If there is not struggle, there is no progress.”

- Frederick Douglass

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. US to blame for new freeze on Korean peninsula

2. U.S. Congress moves to keep restrictions on removing troops from S. Korea

3. The reassuring context of Korea tensions

4. U.S. calls out N.K. regime for torture in detention facilities

5.  North Korea and Trump: is it back to square one, only worse?

6.  S. Korea reports 51 more coronavirus cases amid cluster infections at Seoul church

7. Hundreds of Korean soldier remains to return home some 70 years later

8. South Korea's digital New Deal

9.  90% of S. Koreans say NK won't give up nukes: poll

10.  North Korea defector offices raided, funding 'under investigation'

11. Project Force: where could North Korea's missiles strike?

12. Amb. Harris says S. Korea-U.S. alliance will thrive as linchpin of regional security

13. Kim Jong-Un: revolting way North Korean leaders are 'kept alive' exposed

14. An irresistible target: North Korea's use of cryptocurrency to fund the regime

1. US to blame for new freeze on Korean peninsula

Asia Times · by Andrew Salmon · June 26, 2020

Moon Chung-In blames the US. He is wrong. Kim Jong-Un is to blame. It is the nature of the Kim family and its zero sum relationship with the South and its sole objective to dominate the peninsula that is the fundamental and intractable problem.

And I think that, as sought after as Professor Moon is as a speaker, we should realize he is no friend of the ROK/US alliance.

2. U.S. Congress moves to keep restrictions on removing troops from S. Korea

Yonhap News Agency · by Lee Haye-Ah · June 27, 2020

Here is the language in the HASC summary and the SASC bill. Note the differences. The HASC requires a reduction in North Korean threat and the SACS does not.

The other point is South Korea must be capable of deterring a conflict. The staffers who wrote this language should have said South Korea is capable of defending itself. Deterrence is a function of Kim Jong-Un's perception and decision-making. From what we know from the regime, it is the presence of US forces that deters an attack because the regime believes (and knows) it cannot win a war if the South has US support. But the bottom line is you cannot measure deterrence with any certainty. But you can measure the defensive capability with somewhat more precision. The SECDEF could logically assess the ROK is capable of defending itself (and it is, in my opinion), but he cannot effectively assess that Kim is deterred by South Korean capabilities. But the key point is the US provides the deterrent capability (as Hwang Jong-Yop told us in 1997). The North is an existential threat to the South. But it is a US national interest to prevent war on the Korean peninsula because of the catastrophic effects a war will have on the region, the US, and the world because Korea is at the nexus of the 2d, 3d, and 11th largest economies of the world, two nuclear powers, a rogue nuclear regime, and some of the largest armies in the world (the NKPA is the fourth largest).

HASC summary: prohibits the use of funds to reduce the total number of active duty service members deployed to South Korea below 28,500 until 180 days after the Secretary certifies: 1) doing so is in the national security interest of the United States and will not significantly undermine the security of U.S. allies in the region, 2) is commensurate with a reduction in the threat posed by North Korea, 3) that South Korea is capable of deterring a conflict, and 4) U.S. allies - including South Korea and Japan - have been appropriately consulted.

SASC: SEC. 1260. LIMITATION ON USE OF FUNDS TO REDUCE TOTAL NUMBER OF MEMBERS OF THE ARMED FORCES SERVING ON ACTIVE DUTY WHO ARE DEPLOYED TO THE REPUBLIC OFKOREA. None of the funds authorized to be appropriated by this Act may be obligated or expended to reduce the total number of members of the Armed Forces serving on active duty and deployed to the Republic of Korea to fewer than 28,500 such members of the Armed Forces until 90 days after the date on which the Secretary of Defense certifies to the congressional defense committees that- (1) such a reduction-(A) is in the national security interest of the United States; and (B) will not significantly undermine the security of United States allies in the region; and (2) the Secretary has appropriately consulted with allies of the United States, including the Re public of Korea and Japan, regarding such a reduction.

(I will return to my recommendation over the stalemate in the SMA/burden sharing talks. We should immediately agree to the current (2019) level of funding for two years. We should go back to the negotiating table and redo the SOFA and legal framework to cover the mutually agreed upon categories of support (right now the ROK can only legally fund land and facilities and cannot legally fund all the other demands from the US). Once we have resolved the legal framework we can then negotiate the specific funding levels for the specific categories of support which should be incremental costs over and above the costs of stationing and sustaining the force in CONUS. My recommendation is here: Competing Crises: A Failed ROK-U.S. Burden Sharing Agreement and the Coronavirus in North Korea

3. The reassuring context of Korea tensions

Chicago Tribune · by Arthur I. Cyr · June 26, 2020

The article does not meet the title's statement. I am not reassured by this op-ed. A point: the South's transition to democracy was cemented in 1993 with the election of Kim Young Sam as the first civilian elected President. And he was one of the "Three Kim's" as was Kim Dae Jung who was elected 5 years later. Also yes, in 1950 Truman supported the UN decision to defend South Korea from the North's attack, but the UN Security Council Resolutions were pushed by the US and Truman's desire to have the UN as "top over" as well as to legitimize the UN.

4. U.S. calls out N.K. regime for torture in detention facilities

Yonhap News Agency · by Lee Haye-Ah · June 27, 2020

As we should. The North Korean gulags are brutal and inhumane and constitute crimes against humanity. I do not know how anyone could sympathize with the regime or blame anyone other than Kim Jong-Un (and the Peaktu bloodline) for all tragic suffering that has occurred on the Korean peninsula since 1950 and continues to occur in the North to this day. Human rights is a national security issue as well as a moral imperative.

5. North Korea and Trump: Is it back to square one, only worse?

The Christian Science Monitor · by Howard LaFranchi · June 26, 2020

I do not think Kim Jong-un ever left square one. Both the ROK and the US jumped steps ahead, but the regime never took the real first step to hold substantive working level negotiations.

6. S. Korea reports 51 more coronavirus cases amid cluster infections at Seoul church

Yonhap News Agency · by lcd@yna.co.kr · June 27, 2020

While this seems bad, I think you have to assess this in the overall context of how the South is responding and then look at the causes of these cluster outbreaks for lessons. Note also the imported cases. International travel will likely allow the virus to persist.

7. Hundreds of Korean soldier remains to return home some 70 years later

Hawaii News Now · by Ashley Nagaoka · June 22, 2020

Video at the link. This is one of the best illustrations of ROK/US shared values. Both our countries honor our dead and missing and seek to bring closure to friends and families for their lost loved ones.

Here is a note I received from a friend and former colleague. It includes additional links to photos and video.

On 23 June, the DPAA hosted a ceremony at Joint Base Pearl Harbor Hickam to turn over the remains of 147 ROK soldiers from the Korean War.  The 4-star Commander of USINDOPACOM and the ROK Vice Minister of Defense were part of that ceremony.  As the ROK Air Force transport on which the repatriated remains departed, it was escorted by two flights of USAF fighters. https://www.facebook.com/dodpaa/

Today, on the 70th anniversary of the start of the Korean War, there was a ceremony in Seoul to receive those repatriated remains, and to turn over the remains of 6 U.S. servicemembers which had been identified by the ROK equivalent of DPAA (called MAKRI).  The ROK President officiated at the ceremony.  The Commander UN Command Korea was present, as were the heads of all four branches of the Korean armed forces.  Video comments by the US President, Queen Elizabeth and UK PM, Canadian PM, Turkish President, Dutch King, Belgian PM, Australian PM, Philippine President, Thai King, etc.  The Koreans put on a pretty good ceremony, though I'm afraid I don't speak Korean and there are no subtitles in English (interesting choices of music - lots by American composers): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bpABygz9Hk&t=4198s

In June 2018, the DPRK had returned boxes of remains.  DPAA in Hawaii has been working to identify the U.S. remains, as well as those of ROK soldiers that were comingled.  This week's ceremony was the largest repatriation ceremony.

Here is a behind-the-scenes view of what went into making that happen.  RADM Banaji is the Deputy Director of DPAA (he works in Hawaii; the Director is an SES and works in Crystal City): https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/06/22/remains-nearly-south-korean-soldiers-be-returned-home-us-historic-ceremony/

8. South Korea's digital New Deal

The Diplomat · by Troy Stangarone · June 25, 2020

Korea will remain competitive with its digital new deal.

9. 90% of S. Koreans say NK won't give up nukes: poll

The Korea Herald · by Kim So-Hyun · June 26, 2020

I wonder what is wrong with the other 10%?

10. North Korea defector offices raided, funding 'under investigation'

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim · June 26, 2020

This is shameful.  Escapees (defectors) should be protected and not harassed. And their humanitarian work should be supported and applauded.

11. Project force: where could North Korea's missiles strike?

Al Jazeera · by Alex Gatopoulus · June 25, 2020

Video at the link. I will stand by for comments from missile experts who have an in-depth understanding of North Korean capabilities. I worry when analyses say they have a long way to go. I know there are differences of opinion on the North's possible re-entry capabilities. But when we down play the regime's capabilities we generally get surprised.

12. Amb. Harris says S. Korea-U.S. alliance will thrive as linchpin of regional security

Yonhap News Agency · by sshluck@yna.cokr · June 25, 2020

Yes, it can and must endure and thrive, and it will because of the relationships between the Korean and American people. And those who have a long-term strategic vision for the region know it must remain the linchpin of the US alliance structure.

13. Kim Jong-un: revolting way North Korean leaders are 'kept alive' exposed

Express · by Josh Saunders · June 26, 2020

More rumors on Kim Jong-Un's health. There are some outrageous excerpts from the book, My Favorite Dictator, that include eating certain parts of certain animals for medicinal purposes.

14. An irresistible target: North Korea's use of cryptocurrency to fund the regime

NK Hidden Gulag · by Lauren Jackson · June 23, 2020

A long but very well researched piece.  I will leave it to the cyber and financial experts to enjoy.

 “No man has the right to be ignorant. In a country like this, ignorance is a crime.”

- Louis L’Amour

“Be extremely subtle, even to the point of formlessness. Be extremely mysterious, even to the point of soundlessness. Thereby you can be the director of the opponent’s fate.”

- Sun Tzu

"No one starts a war—or rather, no one in his senses ought to do so—without first being clear in his mind what he intends to achieve by that war and how he intends to conduct it."

- Clausewitz

“If there is not struggle, there is no progress.”

- Frederick Douglass

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

 1. China Has 'First-Strike' Capability To Melt U.S. Power Grid With Electromagnetic Pulse Weapon

2. DHS Predicted A Summer of Violence, Radicalization, and Conspiracies

3. Getting Past the Civil War: The Morality of Renaming U.S. Army Bases Named After Confederate Generals

4.  How the Virus Won

5. Protecting Democracy Amid the COVID-19 Crisis

6. The Dangers of Designating Antifa as a Terrorist Organization Now

7. White House intensifies effort to install Pentagon personnel seen as loyal to Trump

8. INSIGHT: U.S. Must Act to Slow China's Roll Toward Global Digital Payments Domination

9. What Police Can Learn From the Military About the Effectiveness of Soft Power

10. Addressing Diversity, Army Will Remove Photos of Officer Candidates in Promotion Reviews

11. Marines Say Banning Confederate Flag Is Only One Step To Confronting Racism In The Corps

12. Army Won't Ban Confederate Flag Displays Without Pentagon Approval

1. China Has 'First-Strike' Capability To Melt U.S. Power Grid With Electromagnetic Pulse Weapon

Forbes · by James Conca · June 25, 2020

I will start off with the most ominous and threatening article today.

2. DHS Predicted A Summer of Violence, Radicalization, and Conspiracies

defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker

So what we are seeing was not unexpected.  

3. Getting Past the Civil War: The Morality of Renaming U.S. Army Bases Named After Confederate Generals

thestrategybridge.org – by C. Anthony Pfaff - June 25, 2020

This is a very thoughtful and important essay. There are some important insights from Robert E. Lee which we should consider. I recommend it and I commend the author, C. Anthony Pfaff.

4. How the Virus Won

The interactive article is at the link.  Some fascinating graphics.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-spread.html

5. Protecting Democracy Amid the COVID-19 Crisis

diplomaticourier.com · by John Zemko

6. The Dangers of Designating Antifa as a Terrorist Organization Now

rand.org · by Heather J. Williams

7. White House intensifies effort to install Pentagon personnel seen as loyal to Trump

The Washington Post – by Missy Ryan, Paul Sonne, and Josh Dawsey – 25 June 2020

Although this will be interpreted as a partisan article it does provide a fairly comprehensive rundown of some of the major vacancies and the possible nominees.

8. INSIGHT: U.S. Must Act to Slow China's Roll Toward Global Digital Payments Domination

news.bloomberglaw.com · by Jamieson Greer

We must protect the global financial system that is based on the dollar as the reserve currency or we will not be able to sustain our deficit spending.

9. What Police Can Learn From the Military About the Effectiveness of Soft Power

TIME – by James Stavridis – 25 June 2020

But we have to be careful of the perception (or reality)  of "militarization" of the police. 

We should recall the controversy over this concept: "With Green Beret Tactics, Combating Gang Warfare" https://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/01/us/springfield-mass-fights-crime-using-green-beret-tactics.html

10. Addressing Diversity, Army Will Remove Photos of Officer Candidates in Promotion Reviews

The New York Times · by Helene Cooper · June 25, 2020

11. Marines Say Banning Confederate Flag Is Only One Step To Confronting Racism In The Corps

kpbs.org - by Steve Walsh - Thursday, June 25, 2020

12. Army Won't Ban Confederate Flag Displays Without Pentagon Approval

military.com · by Matthew Cox · June 25, 2020

The Marine Corps and US Forces Korea can ban the flag, but the Army needs Pentagon approval?   Not a good look for my Army.

"Never be afraid to raise your voice for honesty and truth and compassion against injustice and lying and greed. If people all over the world...would do this, it would change the earth."

- William Faulkner

"I am aware that many object to the severity of my language; but is there not cause for severity? I will be as harsh as truth, and as uncompromising as justice. On this subject, I do not wish to think, or to speak, or write, with moderation. No! no! Tell a man whose house is on fire to give a moderate alarm; tell him to moderately rescue his wife from the hands of the ravisher; tell the mother to gradually extricate her babe from the fire into which it has fallen; - but urge me not to use moderation in a cause like the present. I am in earnest - I will not equivocate - I will not excuse - I will not retreat a single inch - AND I WILL BE HEARD."

- William Lloyd Garrison

"When the sword is once drawn, the passions of men observe no bounds of moderation."

- Alexander Hamilton

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

1. The Korean War: The origin of Pyongyang's state lies

2. Nightmare scenarios: How Korean War 2 could ignite

3.  North Korea "failed to adhere to its commitments" in arms control: U.S. report

4. Top Pyongyang official chides Seoul, but affirms halt to hostility

5.  What is Kim Jong-un Planning?

6. Rethinking South Korea’s Unification Policy: Deregulate People-to-People Exchanges

7. How North Korea's Propaganda Prevents Inter-Korean Peace

8. Do We Remember the Lessons of the Korean War?

9. N. Korean soldiers on inter-Korean border still on high state of alert

10. The Pyongyang General Hospital project's dark side

11. Opinion | Why Did Kim Jong-un’s Sister Become the Face of North Korea?

12. Timeline: Threats and stalemate one year after Trump last met North Korea's Kim

13. House defense bill targets potential troop drawdowns in Africa, South Korea

14. Kim Jong-un dead rumours resurface as Japan has 'suspicions' about North Korean leader

15. State Department accuses 10 countries, including China and North Korea, of government-sponsored human trafficking

16. N.K. propaganda outlet resumes anti-Seoul criticism over 'subservient' attitude to U.S.

17. U.S. names N. Korea worst human trafficking nation for 18th year

18. CNN’s Portrayal of North Korea as Lawless Aggressor Reverses Reality

1. The Korean War: The origin of Pyongyang's state lies

The Hill · by Sung-Yoon Lee, opinion contributor · June 25, 2020

A must read from Professor Lee.  These are important insights about the history and nature of the Kim family regime.

2. Nightmare scenarios: How Korean War 2 could ignite

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · June 25, 2020

Excellent interview with our good friend Lt Gen Chun In Bum.

3. North Korea "failed to adhere to its commitments" in arms control: U.S. report

nknews.org · by Min Chao Choy · June 26, 2020

The State Department report can be downloaded here:  https://www.state.gov/adherence-to-and-compliance-with-arms-control-nonproliferation-and-disarmament-agreements-and-commitments-compliance-report/

4. Top Pyongyang official chides Seoul, but affirms halt to hostility

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

Kim Yong Chol is not looking good.  Perhaps he has recently return from a re-education course.  This article makes it appear there may be some friction between the party and the military. I think it would be a mistake to think that. I think the party remains in control of the military and Kim Jong-un is fully in charge and is continuing to execute his long con.

5. What is Kim Jong-un Planning?

The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · June 25, 2020

Another pundit who continually wants to blame the US and maximum pressure. He is also telling us we have much to learn about north Korea.  

6. Rethinking South Korea’s Unification Policy: Deregulate People-to-People Exchanges

38north.org · by Bernhard Seliger · June 25, 2020

I am all for people to people contact between the Koreans in the north and South.  If I were advising the ROKG I would strongly recommend they push for people to people engagement on a large scale (but start small and build).  It will be one of the best ways to prepare the populations on both sides of the of DMZ.

However, the regime will never go for it.  The South can propose all kinds fo people to people engagement programs, but the north will never agree.

Why?  We must remember the question Dr. Jung Pak always asks.  Who does Kim Jong-un fear more: the US or the Korean people living in the north?  He fears the Korean people more. And if the people engage with Koreans from the South, they will become an ever-bigger threat to the regime. Kim Jong-un therefore cannot allow such engagement to occur.

7. How North Korea's Propaganda Prevents Inter-Korean Peace

The National Interest · by Jihyun Park · June 24, 2020

A very succinct overview of the indoctrination of the Korean people in the north.

8. Do We Remember the Lessons of the Korean War?

english.chosun.com

There is a scathing critique in the penultimate and concluding paragraphs.  I think the editorial board could have used the Sun Tzi quote - "Never assume the enemy will not attack. Make yourself invincible."

9. N. Korean soldiers on inter-Korean border still on high state of alert

dailynk.com – Jeong Tae Joo - June 25, 2020

Of course, they are especially since the ROK Army reinforced the forward areas to include deploying armor. Are the ROK forces still in the forward areas?

10. The Pyongyang General Hospital project's dark side

dailynk.com – Jong So Yong - June 26, 2020

The hospital must be built at "Chollima speed." This is a helluva way to treat soldiers (or any human being).  The regime does not value or have respect for human life.  Every one of the 25 million Koreans who live in the north exists for one reason: to serve the regime and Kim Jong-un.

11. Opinion | Why Did Kim Jong-un’s Sister Become the Face of North Korea?

The New York Times · by Sung-Yoon Lee · June 26, 2020

Another excellent article from Professor Lee with important insights on Kim Yo-Jong, the Kim family regime, and the Paektu bloodline.

12. Timeline: Threats and stalemate one year after Trump last met North Korea's Kim

Reuters · June 26, 2020

A short timeline of the past two years of unconventional, experimental top-down, pen-pal diplomacy.  Just a recommendation to Reuters: it would have been more useful to include the summits and meetings with Moon Jae-in, Xi Jinping, and Putin and the 21+ missile and rocket launches.  That would have provided more context and a better perspective. 

13. House defense bill targets potential troop drawdowns in Africa, South Korea

The Hill · by Rebecca Kheel · June 25, 2020

Some good news.  I did not see this in the Senate mark-up but I was only focused on Special Operations and the establishment of a Secretariat of Special Operations under the ASD SO/LIC. But I imagine the Korea provision will be in the final bill.

The Korea section is repeating and reinforcing the same provision in the 2020 NDAA - no funds will be authorized for withdrawal of troops unless the SECDEF certifies that there is no impact on US or South Korean security.

14. Kim Jong-un dead rumours resurface as Japan has 'suspicions' about North Korean leader

Mirror · by Talia Shadwell · June 26, 2020

The "Mark Twain" rumors persist (reports of my death are greatly exaggerated). But the Japanese press is notorious for these types of rumors.  We should note that it was only 16 days between his last appearch and his Zoom Meeting with his officials this week.

15. State Department accuses 10 countries, including China and North Korea, of government-sponsored human trafficking

The Washington Post – by Carol Morello – June 25, 2020

According to Yonhap, north Korea was named number one for the 18th straight year.  This article goes well beyond north Korea.

We must continue to press north Korean on human rights issues.  It is a moral imperative and a national security issue.  Kim must deny human rights to remain in power.  Our focus on nuclear weapons strengthens his legitimacy.  Our focus on human rights undermines his legitimacy and is a threat to the regime.  And it is the right thing to do.

16. N.K. propaganda outlet resumes anti-Seoul criticism over 'subservient' attitude to U.S.

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 26, 2020

The scorpion and the frog.  The Kim family regime just cannot help itself.  Anti-South propaganda is in its nature. And of course, "Divide to conquer" - divide the ROK/US alliance to conquer the ROK is also in its nature.  It just cannot help itself.

17. U.S. names N. Korea worst human trafficking nation for 18th year

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · June 26, 2020

We cannot be afraid to focus on human rights.  State is not.

18. CNN’s Portrayal of North Korea as Lawless Aggressor Reverses Reality

fair.org · by Joshua Cho · June 25, 2020

I have to provide this disinformation.  This is an unbelievable piece of "analysis". It has been awhile since I have read something pro-north Korea.  It is pretty amazing spin. I hope my PSYOP professional friends enjoy analyzing this.  I am going to have to pay better attention at DC Korea conferences and look for this Mr. Cho since he apparently resides in north Korea.  I wonder if he has registered as a foreign agent.  He is surely doing the bidding of the Kim family regime.  I wonder if he has a contract with the Propaganda and Agitation Department.  His propaganda is actually brilliant because this might be embraced by those with an anti-CNN bias so by their attacking CNN they will be supporting north Korea. :-)

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.

1. Critics, allies wonder what Trump's trying to achieve with troop cuts

2. Trump is right to withdraw troops from Germany - as long as he sends them east

3. Trump administration says it won't carry out a nuclear weapons test 'at this time'

4. Trump's national security adviser lays out stinging critique of threat posed by China

5. The tide is turning toward trusted 5G vendors

6. Japan to consider strike capability to replace missile defence system

7. White supremacist terrorism 'on the rise and spreading,' State Dept. says in new report

8. Is the US ready for the rising tide of mercenaries?

9. 'Coming back and biting us': US sees virus resurgence

10. Pompeo says China's Africa lending creates unsustainable debt burdens

11. Trump confirms plan to slash U.S. troop presence in Germany; some 'probably' will relocate to Poland

12. Army special forces conducting 15-day training in northern Taiwan

13. The growing White supremacist menace- COVID-19 has been a boon for far-right extremists

14. ROC(K) solid preparedness: Resistance operations concept in the shadow of Russia

15. Congress wants to know SOCOM's plan to counter new threats, Reform command culture

16. A brief history of Antifa: Part II

17. Reimagining policing in America-A Complete Institutional Overhaul

18. No such thing as a perfect partner: The Challenges of "By, With, and Through"

1. Critics, allies wonder what Trump's trying to achieve with troop cuts

defenseone.com · by Katie Bo Williams 

Concur. What effect are we trying to achieve? Inquiring minds want to know.

Is "punishing an ally" more important than protecting our national interests and preserving strategic flexibility and agility that our forward bases and forward stationed forces provide?

I would argue that the proposed withdrawal is in contravention to the national Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy. A repositioning of some troops to Poland would be in keeping with the strategies but bringing forward stationed troops back to CONUS is not in accordance with our strategies.

2. Trump is right to withdraw troops from Germany - as long as he sends them east

The Washington Post · by Marc A. Thiessen · June 24, 2020

Another view.

3. Trump administration says it won't carry out a nuclear weapons test 'at this time'

CNN · by Kylie Atwood 

Cooler heads prevail?

4. Trump's national security adviser lays out stinging critique of threat posed by China

washingtontimes.com · by Bill Gertz 

A lay down of the NSA's analysis of the Chinese threat. But I think we overlook his concluding statement which I think need to be emphasized and succinctly sums up the issues. He says we want good relations with China but on the current terms that China offers.

Here is my summary assessment of China:

China seeks to export its authoritarian political system around the world in order to dominate regions, co-opt or coerce international organizations, create economic conditions favorable to China alone, and displace democratic institutions.

We see this play out in China's concepts of Unrestricted Warfare and China's three warfares of psychological warfare, legal warfare or lawfare, and media or public opinion warfare. Along with selected hybrid military activities these combine to form a Chinese concept of political warfare.

5. The tide is turning toward trusted 5G vendors

state.gov · by Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State · June 24, 2020

6. Japan to consider strike capability to replace missile defence system

reuters · by Tim Kelly

Maybe Japan could partner with South Korea on its Kill Chain missile defense concept. (Note sarcasm though I wish there could be that kind of collaboration).

7. White supremacist terrorism 'on the rise and spreading,' State Dept. says in new report

ABCNews.com · by Conor Finnegan · June 24, 2020

8. Is the US ready for the rising tide of mercenaries?

pri.org · by Laicie Heeley

It is a brave new world. Who should have a monopoly on violence?

Sean McFate is one of the leading researchers and experts on Private Military Corporations.

9. 'Coming back and biting us': US sees virus resurgence

AP · by NICK PERRY and KEN MORITSUGU · June 24, 2020

We are in for some tough times ahead I am afraid. Practical, proven, public health procedures versus the anti-science tribe.

10. Pompeo says China's Africa lending creates unsustainable debt burdens

reuters · June 24, 2020

China’s debt trap strategy?

11. Trump confirms plan to slash U.S. troop presence in Germany; some 'probably' will relocate to Poland

The Washington Post · by Anne Gearan · June 24, 2020

Yes, US Troops in Poland probably makes sense (I will leave that to the experts on the European Theater). A fundamental question for me is do we have better strategic flexibility and agility with more forces stationed in CONUS with less overseas forward presence and access to bases?  What is the best way to distribute and apportion forces to best support US national security?

12. Army special forces conducting 15-day training in northern Taiwan

focustaiwan.tw · June 21, 2020

It is good to see Taiwan emphasizing its Special Forces. As I have mentioned I would love to see a new US Special Forces Detachment Taiwan as we had in the 1950/1960s.  

And one of the things I would focus on is developing a Taiwanese Resistance Operating Concept along the lines of the one developed in Europe (https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/News-Article-View/Article/2217669/rock-solid-preparedness-resistance-operations-concept-in-the-shadow-of-russia/). It would not only have practical application in an invasion by the PLA, it could play a role in "unconventional deterrence" which would be better than having a war. (See Robert Jones' article here: https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/deterring-competition-short-war-are-gray-zones-ardennes-our-modern-maginot-line). If an invading force/occupier believes the population cannot be pacified it might deter an invasion.

Of course, this reporting may be the Taiwanese information operations effort to support unconventional deterrence.

13. The growing White supremacist menace- COVID-19 has been a boon for far-right extremists

Foreign Affairs · by Rebecca Ulam Weiner · June 23, 2020

More food for thought.

14. ROC(K) solid preparedness: Resistance operations concept in the shadow of Russia

ndupress.ndu.edu · June 11, 2020

This concept should be studied and considered for implementation in certain countries around the world that are threatened with potential invasion. Of course, the concept must be adapted for the unique conditions in each country and region.  

There is also another threat that requires resistance and that is the cyber threat. A country might not face the threat of physical invasion, but it can be threatened and undermined through cyber operations. We have to learn how to defend ourselves and our nations in cyber space.

I have given this some thought to "cyber resistanc" here: https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/the-cyber-underground-%E2%80%93-resistance-to-active-measures-and-propaganda-%E2%80%9Cthe-disruptors%E2%80%9D-mot-0.

15. Congress wants to know SOCOM's plan to counter new threats, Reform command culture

airforcemag.com · by Alyk Russell Kenlan · June 23, 2020

Interesting title and text. The discussion is on command culture, not SOF culture. Is that a subtle message?

16. A brief history of Antifa: Part II

gatestoneinstitute.org · by Soeren Kern · June 23, 2020

And another view on antifa.

17. Reimagining policing in America-A Complete Institutional Overhaul

smallwarsjournal · by Lieutenant Colonel Lemar Farhad · June 25, 2020

A new concept to train, develop, supervise, improve, and monitor our police officers. Although the authors using military concepts this is not about militarization of police.

18. No such thing as a perfect partner: The Challenges of "By, With, and Through"

ndupress.ndu.edu · June 11, 2020

"Through, with, and by" has become one of the most overused and perhaps misused terms. We should remember where it came from and how it was meant to be applied by COL Mark Boyatt who actually coined the term in 1994-1995. (See his book Special Forces: A Unique National Asset "through, with and by" https://www.amazon.com/Special-Forces-Unique-National-through/dp/1478770821)

COL Boyatt coined the term to describe one of the fundamental operational methods of Special Forces in particular in the execution of the unconventional warfare mission.  

Yes, there are no perfect partners (which of course has to include ourselves as American partners - we are far from perfect).  But despite the "imperfectness" of all partners there are ways to ensure we can work together to achieve mutual objectives. Here are two points that I think should be emphasized: https://maxoki161.blogspot.com/2018/07/eight-points-of-special-warfare.html

-----------

"It is customary in democratic countries to deplore expenditure on armaments as conflicting with the requirements of the social services. There is a tendency to forget that the most important social service that a government can do for its people is to keep them alive and free."

 -  John Cotesworth Slessor, 1897-1979, British Air Force Marshall

"What a society gets in its armed forces is exactly what it asks for, no more and no less. What it asks for tends to be a reflection of what it is. When a country looks at its fighting forces it is looking at a mirror: if the mirror is a true one the face that it sees will be its own."

- General Sir John Hackett, The Profession of Arms

"A generation which ignores history has no past and no future."

- Robert Heinlein

"History is the witness that testifies to the passing of time; it illuminates reality, vitalizes memory, provides guidance in daily life and brings us tidings of antiquity."

- Cicero

"History is a vast early warning system."

- Norman Cousins

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.

1. Joint Statement in Commemoration of the 70th Anniversary of the Outbreak of the Korean War

2. The Korean War never technically ended. Here’s why.

3. ‘I didn’t know I was young:’ Remembering the Korean War 70 years later

4.  70 Years After the War, No Resolution in Korea

5. S.Korea Cautious About N.Korea's U-Turn

6. Why Pyongyang needs to dump on Seoul’s leftists

7.  Why the American-South Korean alliance cannot be a simple bargaining chip with North Korea

8.  Guns and Hunger (Korean War)

9.  Bridges at Panmunjom

10. Thousands Taken: Kidnappings by North Korea's Kim Dynasty Continue for Half a Century

11. Families sue national archives for POW/MIA records on 70th anniversary of Korean War

12. N. Korea preparing mass gymnastics show for party anniversary

13. Chairman Kim Goes Back on Script

14. They gamed out war on the Korean Peninsula—Everyone lost

15. Kim Jong Un’s erratic behavior shows North Korea is stuck

16. North Korea lauds Harry Potter

17. Pyongyang General Hospital: the two towers reach full height

18. Pompeo cites 3 S. Korean companies in case against Huawei

1. Joint Statement in Commemoration of the 70th Anniversary of the Outbreak of the Korean War

defense.gov 

2. The Korean War never technically ended. Here’s why.

nationalgeographic.com · June 24, 2020

Today is the 70th Anniversary. It is not a forgotten war for those who still survive. Please remember them and never forget.

3. ‘I didn’t know I was young:’ Remembering the Korean War 70 years later

militarytimes.com · by Diana Stancy Correll, Zach England · June 24, 2020

My comments are in the conclusion of this article.

4.  70 Years After the War, No Resolution in Korea

WSJ · by Walter Russell Mead · June 24, 2020

There can be no reconciliation as long as the Kim family regime remains in power. For the North it is a zero sum relationship with the South. 

Walter Russell Mead paints a grim picture for the alliance. He also calls Kim Jong-un one of the world's most unpredictable leaders. I would say perhaps he is tactically unpredictable (we did not see his countermanding of Kim Yo-jong's order coming so soon), but he is strategically predictable. He has not wavered from the strategic objectives of his grandfather nor strayed from the Kim family regime playbook. And his increased tension and violent provocation cycle remains a key part of his method of operation.

5. S.Korea Cautious About N.Korea's U-Turn

english.chosun.com · June 25, 2020

Yes, it must be cautious, the regime is masterful at denial and deception. As Sun Tzu said "all warfare is based on deception," both "kinetic" and political warfare.

The article also questions whether China influenced Kim to countermand his sister's orders so rapidly.

6. Why Pyongyang needs to dump on Seoul’s leftists

asiatimes.com · by B.R. Myers · June 24, 2020

This is a must read. It is a short article by one of the best non-Korean Korea scholars. B.R. Myers provides some very succinct analysis of the Kim family regime. I do think his points about South Korean understand the North's strategy which is why it stays the course should be challenged.

7.  Why the American-South Korean Alliance cannot be a simple bargaining chip with North Korea

The National Interest · by Michael O'Hanlon · June 24, 2020

Yes Michael is right about the alliance. We must never forget that a key north Korean objective is to get US forces off the peninsula. The ROK/US alliance, with a US force presence, is key to deterrence.

I would also say that any peace treaty should be concluded between the two belligerents, the North and South and not the North and the US. 

Lastly, Michael reminds us that despite the "streamlining" of the ROK military for demographic reasons, it is still the largest Army of any US alliance partner. I think we too often overlook that.

8.  Guns and Hunger (Korean War)

wilsonquarterly.com · by Jean H. Lee

We never forget about the people affected by the war.

9.  Bridges at Panmunjom

wilsonquarterly.com · by LT. COL. Sean Morrow

I had the honor of making two visits to Panmunjom over the past year and meeting with Lt Col Morrow (he was a great host).

This is a must read article as well. On the one hand it is a human interest story about relationships. Through that lens it provides some behind the scenes insights into the summits and meetings held at Panmunjom over the past two years.

I spent three years around the JSA in the 1980s when we used to have the American sector to patrol. I visited JSA many times and conducted coordination with the battalion there. This article provides a unique perspective that you do not often read about.

And again, on the human interest side, we should never forget the anecdote of how children in North Korea learn to count: "One American Bastard, two American Bastards, three American Bastards..."

10. Thousands Taken: Kidnappings by North Korea's Kim Dynasty Continue for Half a Century

japan-forward.com · by Melanie Kirkpatrick · June 24, 2020

Another aspect of the evil nature of the Kim family regime.

11. Families sue national archives for POW/MIA records on 70th anniversary of Korean War

powinvestigativeproject.org · June 24, 2020

Another tragic legacy of the Korean War. China, Russia, and North Korea are complicit.

I wonder why these records are still being withheld.

12. N. Korea preparing mass gymnastics show for party anniversary

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 25, 2020

If I were an advisor to Kim Jong-un I would ask him what is his intent for this show? What objectives is he trying to achieve? What target audience is he trying to influence? In short, why is this show being held?

I would also ask him that give the failed economy and the effects of the coronavirus is it really worth it to expend the resources to conduct this show when those resources could be more effectively employed to solve some of the critical problems in the country.

Of course, if I were such an advisor and asked such questions, I would end up in the gulag if not participate in a public execution (my own).

13. Chairman Kim Goes Back on Script

project-syndicate.org · by Kent Harrington · June 24, 2020

A sober analysis. I concur that no matter what happens in the North, Kim will not deviate from the Kim family regime strategy and its playbook.

I would also add that although Mr. Harrington did not explicitly state this, the reason for "failure" so far is due to Kim Jong-un and the nature of the Kim family regime. The one positive thing about President Trump's unconventional, experimental, top-down, pen-pal diplomacy and President Moon's "peace strategy" and his vision of peace and reconciliation is that we have tested Kim Jong-un and provided him with multiple opportunities to engage and change the regime's course and what we have confirmed is his unwillingness to do so. We should be under no illusion about the nature and strategy of the regime. President Trump and President Moon have been able to determine their strategic assumptions have been wrong. This means it is time to revise the strategy and look to implement a Plan B.

14. They gamed out war on the Korean Peninsula—Everyone lost

Forbes · by David Axe · June 24, 2020

One scenario to remind us of what might happen if hostilities resume on the Korean peninsula. But I have seen other outcomes though they all involve a high level of military and civilian casualties. This is why I advocate the most important task for the ROK/US alliance and the ROK/US Combined Forces Command (which was not mentioned in the article and is a terrible oversight because that is the warfighting command) is deterrence.

The North poses an existential threat to the South. It is in the US national interests to prevent war on the Korean peninsula because what happens on the peninsula will have direct effects on the US and the entire world.

15. Kim Jong Un’s erratic behavior shows North Korea is stuck

Bloomberg · by Jon Herskovitz · June 24, 2020

Yes, Kim is between a rock (ROK) and a hard place.

I think Kim is mistaken that he can put enough pressure on Trump to return to talks and get sanctions relief. It is a fool's errand.

And we must never go wobbly on sanctions. If we give in to Kim on sanctions, we will see North Korea's bad behavior continue for years to come.

16. North Korea lauds Harry Potter

koreaherald.com · by Park Han-na · June 24, 2020

All is well now. If North Korea accepts Harry Potter a tectonic cultural shift is taking place.

17. Pyongyang General Hospital: the two towers reach full height

38north.org · by Martyn Williams · June 24, 2020

North Korea continues to prepare for the coronavirus outbreak. I wonder if the hospital has its grand opening when the regime admits the first coronavirus patients.

18. Pompeo cites 3 S. Korean companies in case against Huawei

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Haye-ah · June 25, 2020

-----------

"It is customary in democratic countries to deplore expenditure on armaments as conflicting with the requirements of the social services. There is a tendency to forget that the most important social service that a government can do for its people is to keep them alive and free."

 -  John Cotesworth Slessor, 1897-1979, British Air Force Marshall

"What a society gets in its armed forces is exactly what it asks for, no more and no less. What it asks for tends to be a reflection of what it is. When a country looks at its fighting forces it is looking at a mirror: if the mirror is a true one the face that it sees will be its own."

- General Sir John Hackett, The Profession of Arms

"A generation which ignores history has no past and no future."

- Robert Heinlein

"History is the witness that testifies to the passing of time; it illuminates reality, vitalizes memory, provides guidance in daily life and brings us tidings of antiquity."

- Cicero

"History is a vast early warning system."

- Norman Cousins

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.

1. FDD | State Department Plays Key Role in New U.S. China Strategy

2. Trump faces mounting GOP blowback over order to pull troops out of Germany

3. What Antifa is, What it isn't, and Why it matters

4. International Criminal Court members defend it in face of U.S. sanctions

5. FDD | America in 2020: "Insurrection" or "Incipient Insurgency"?

6. FDD | How to Beat China's Military-Civil Fusion

7. Despite the Authoritarian Wave, People Will Be Back

8. U.S. Military Remains Vulnerable to Infiltration by Violent Extremists

9. BlueLeaks: Huge Leak of Police Department Data Follows George Floyd Protests

10. Withdrawal of U.S. troops from Germany a key subplot of Trump's meeting with Polish leader

11. Lawmakers seek $6 billion to add weapons to deter China in the Pacific

12. US government broadcasters have long advanced the cause of freedom. Now they're under threat.

13. Gaslighting Nobody, the Blob Awkwardly Struggles for Primacy

14. Defense bill would survey troops on if they've faced 'racist, anti-Semitic or supremacist' activity

15. The U.S. Intel Community is being disrupted

16. Ending America's Grand Strategic Failures

17. Does the Pentagon's Checkbook Diplomacy actually work?

1. FDD | State Department Plays Key Role in New U.S. China Strategy

fdd.org · by David Maxwell · June 23, 2020

2. Trump faces mounting GOP blowback over order to pull troops out of Germany

The Washington Post · by James Hohmann · June 23, 2020

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Will the republicans be able to change his mind or will the Pentagon come up with a way to split the baby and execute the President's intent without doing too much damage to the alliance and US forward stationed capabilities.

3. What Antifa is, What it isn't, and Why it matters

warontherocks.com · by Michael Kenney · June 23, 2020

The analyses of antifa are all over the map. There will be pushback by many on this statement "Interestingly, any push to terrorism among Antifa supporters would likely be met by opposition from within the movement" because it does not comport with their view of the movement (rather than organization).

4. International Criminal Court members defend it in face of U.S. sanctions

Reuters · by Anthony Deutsch, Stephanie van den Berg · June 23, 2020

This is the key point: "The ICC is a court of last resort, stepping in only when a state is unable or unwilling to prosecute grave crimes." The US conducts investigations and conducts trials based on evidence. It is neither unable nor unwilling to prosecute grave crimes. It is not in the ICC's purview to take action because it does not like the outcome of US investigations and trials.

5. FDD | America in 2020: "Insurrection" or "Incipient Insurgency"?

fdd.org · by David Kilcullen · June 23, 2020

We may be in the incipient stage, but it is no longer latent!

Provocative analysis from David Kilcullen.

6. FDD | How to Beat China's Military-Civil Fusion

fdd.org · by Emily de La Bruyère Senior Fellow · June 22, 2020

7. Despite the Authoritarian Wave, People Will Be Back

realclearworld.com · by Srdja Popovic

We will see. In long talks with our college age daughter while we have stayed home these past few months, I have learned that many of her peers do not value democracy like we do. We just take it for granted that our sons and daughters will value freedom and individual liberty, liberal democracy, a free market economy, rule of law, and human rights the way we do. I agree with the author's conclusion: "Societies are as healthy and vital as are their citizens." That may be worrisome these days.

8. U.S. Military Remains Vulnerable to Infiltration by Violent Extremists

mailchi.mp · June 24, 2020

9. BlueLeaks: Huge Leak of Police Department Data Follows George Floyd Protests

Forbes · by Thomas Brewster · June 22, 2020

10. Withdrawal of U.S. troops from Germany a key subplot of Trump's meeting with Polish leader

militarytimes.com · by Leo Shane III · June 23, 2020

There is always a rest of the story or the story behind the story. It will be interesting to see what troops we do station in Poland.

11. Lawmakers seek $6 billion to add weapons to deter China in the Pacific

foxnews.com · by Kris Osborn | Warrior Maven · June 23, 2020

Weapons are good. But we need to invest presence, training, relationships, and interoperability with our friends, partners and allies as well.

12. US government broadcasters have long advanced the cause of freedom. Now they're under threat.

atlanticcouncil.org · June 23, 2020

VOA, RFA, RFE/RL, et all are critical national security assets. We need to treat them that way.

But it seems like Mr. Pack is being treated with guilt by association. While I do not agree that any new boss should come in and initiate an immediate purge without first conducting his or her own assessment to understand what problem he or she is trying to solve, I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. And I have heard he has not been associated with Bannon for some years.

13. Gaslighting Nobody, the Blob Awkwardly Struggles for Primacy

The American Conservative · by Kelley Beaucar Vlahos · June 24, 2020

Kelley Beaucar Vlahos does quite a takedown of the national security community, AKA the Blob, here.

Truth in advertising Mike Mazarr was my thesis advisor many years ago and then when I was on the National War College faculty, he was my faculty mentor.

14. Defense bill would survey troops on if they've faced 'racist, anti-Semitic or supremacist' activity

The Hill · by Rebecca Kheel · June 22, 2020

These results will be very interesting.

15. The U.S. Intel Community is being disrupted

defenseone.com · by Zachery Tyson Brown · June 23, 2020

"Of value." How does the intelligence community remain "of value?"

16. Ending America's Grand Strategic Failures

csis.org · by Anthony H. Cordesman · June 22, 2020

Another strong critique from Anthony Cordesman.

17. Does the Pentagon's Checkbook Diplomacy actually work?

defenseone.com · by Brian Blankenship · June 23, 2020

The Beatles told us "money can't buy me love." But can it buy me some national security? 

-----------

"A popular government without popular information, or the means of acquiring it, is but a prologue to a farce or a tragedy, or perhaps both. Knowledge will forever govern ignorance, and a people who mean to be their own governors must arm themselves with the power which knowledge gives." 

- James Madison, from a letter to W.T. Barry, August 4, 1822

"The responsibility of great states is to serve and not to dominate the world."  

- Harry S. Truman, Message to Congress, April 16, 1945

"A trained and disciplined guerrilla is much more than a patriotic peasant, workman, or student armed with an antiquated fowling-piece and home-made bomb.  His endoctrination begins even before he is taught to shoot accurately, and it is unceasing.  The end product is an intensely loyal and politically alert fighting man." 

- Brig Gen S.B. Griffith in the Introduction to Mao's On Guerrilla Warfare, 1961.

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.

1. 'We can and must do better': U.S. Forces Korea leads fight against racism in the ranks

2. N. Korean leader suspends military action plans against S. Korea

3.  N. Korea seen removing loudspeakers from border areas: sources

4.  North Korean Escapee, Entrepreneur, and Human Rights Activist Visits HRNK

5. North Korea reportedly threatens 'new round of the Korean War' to end US

6. North Korea puts on hold threatening rhetoric against the South

7. N.K. propaganda outlets delete articles critical of S. Korea en masse

8. N. Korea appears to be dialing back on threats amid internal challenges: experts

9. N.Korea 'Suspends Military Action' as Spy Planes Fly over

10. Kim Jong Un Hits Pause Button on Threats Against South Korea

11. U.S.' B-52 bombers are deployed near Korean Peninsula

12. Anti-North activists defy local bans on leaflet campaigns

13. U.S. concerned over North's nuclear activities in 2019: Report

14. Seoul has to prepare for an era devoid of ROK-U.S. alliance

15. U.S. constantly assessing options to respond to N.K. threats: top general

16. [Korean War Anniversary] 'Just another day' still remembered 70 years on

1. 'We can and must do better': U.S. Forces Korea leads fight against racism in the ranks

washingtontimes.com · by Ben Wolfgang · June 23, 2020

2. N. Korean leader suspends military action plans against S. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 24, 2020

Kim Jong-un and the Kim family regime are bullies. There is only one thing to do with bullies and that is to stand up to them. It is unfortunate that the Moon Administration at first acquiesced to Kim Yo-jong's demands to halt the leaflet operations by escapees/defectors and that the Minister of Unification resigned. However, the ROK and US have discussed reinvigorating the exercise program, the ROK deployed infantry and armor to the vicinity of the DMZ and the US deployed strategic assets and ISR assets. This is how you respond to North Korean bullying.

That said it ain't over til it's over. There will be more. And of course the north is calling the Comprehensive Military Agreement a "dead document." This is a direct attack/insult toward President Moon.

A couple of points from the article.

The order was supposedly given by video teleconference. (we should be figuring out how to penetrate that network).

What military action plans were suspended? Military occupation of Kaseong and Kumgangsan? Redeployment of forces to the guard posts in the DMZ? Balloon launches (they were probably unable to print the 12 million leaflets they threatened to send to the South). Loudspeaker operations? Something else?

As we surmised Kim Yo-jong was out in front with statements and giving orders, but this provided the opportunity for Kim Jong-un to walk things back. And of course it appears Kim Jong-un is making sure we know he is in charge - but the fact the "order" was given via VTC begs the questions - where was Kim? In Pyongyang? In Isolation? In Wonsan? And of course, this provides no indication of his health but makes you wonder if he is unable to travel for health reasons or is simply hiding out for fear of being exposed to the coronavirus.

And lastly a little humor that we can all perhaps appreciate from doing some many Zoom conferences these days. Bruce Klingner nails it with humor that also seriously explains the nature of the Kim family regime and the sycophants that must surround Kim Jong-un.

3.  N. Korea seen removing loudspeakers from border areas: sources

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · June 24, 2020

The soldiers from the North are getting jerked around. Put them up, take them down. You know what they are thinking and mumbling to themselves. At least the North is now refraining from contributing to noise pollution.

4.  North Korean Escapee, Entrepreneur, and Human Rights Activist Visits HRNK

hrnkinsider.org · by Committee for Human Rights in North Korea · June 22, 2020

Human rights are a moral imperative and a national security issue. The Moon Administration should be doing everything it can to support the work of the escapees. We all have a responsibility to advocate for the human rights of the Korea people living in the North but the people in South Korea have a special responsibility. And the South Korean government even more so. It pains me to read Ms. Ma Young-ae's pleas.

We should never forget the more we simply talk about the North's nuclear weapons we make Kim stronger. But when we press for human rights in the North, we undermine his legitimacy, make him weaker and give hope to the Korean people.

5. North Korea reportedly threatens 'new round of the Korean War' to end US

New York Post · by Emily Jacobs · June 23, 2020

Looks like Kim Yo-jong has been trumped by her brother with the announcement today that he is suspending "military action plans." We are seeing good cop/bad cop or Kim Jong-un pulled the rug out from under her or most likely she provided some plausible deniability so he could rescind her decisions. But we should make no mistake. She was not acting on her own and everything she did and said was approved by Kim Jong-un.

6. North Korea puts on hold threatening rhetoric against the South

The Washington Post · by Min Joo Kim · June 24, 2020

This will be dominating the Korean news cycle for the next day or so as we all speculate as to the meaning. The removal of articles from North Korean web sites that criticize the South is something that is unusual.

7. N.K. propaganda outlets delete articles critical of S. Korea en masse

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 24, 2020

This is a very interesting development. Is this somehow a restart of a new charm offensive? Was Kim Yo-jong acting out and acting out with Kim Jong-un's authorization? Was Kim Jong-un somehow incapacitated over the past couple of weeks and Kim Yo-jong took a little too much initiative?

But I do not recall anything like this happening before.The regime has always stood by its rhetoric or simply moved on seemingly without explanation. It has never had trouble going to increase tensions (built on hostile rhetoric) to violent provocations to negotiations to some kind of "equilibrium" for a while especially if it obtained some kind of concession and then when the time was right it would ratchet up tension again and get to the tension/provocation/negotiation cycle. Rinse and repeat.  

But taking down articles that are critical of the South is not something I recall seeing. However, this action like all others (to include the publication of the original articles) would have to have Kim Jong-un's approval.  

This begs the question of what is Kim thinking and what is he about to do?

I am reminded of 1950 after months and years of north-South tensions and border skirmishes and infiltration and subversion and sabotage the North abruptly called for negotiations at the city of Kaesong (which at the time was in South Korea since it is South of the 38th parallel). At the end of May 1950, the North ceased all hostile propaganda and with the call for negotiations analysts believed the North wanted to seek a political solution to the differences between North and South.

Of course, tomorrow is the 70th anniversary of what happened next. We should beware of the North ceasing its hostile rhetoric. If Kim embarks on a charm offensive, we had better be ready.

That said we need to continue to observe for indications inside the North and especially of Pyongyang of pressure on the regime, instability. The regime may very well be stressed with the self-inflicted economic breakdown and with a potential coronavirus crisis.

There is a lot to parse here.

8. N. Korea appears to be dialing back on threats amid internal challenges: experts

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 24, 2020

Of course, I provided the historical example of the North dialing back propaganda, calling for negotiations and then attacking the south.

I think there is also merit to the assessment the regime may be under too much internal pressure to generate the external tensions it usually does when it is stressed.

We need to be especially watchful for the indicators or internal regime stability.

I think it is useful to review Robert Collins' seven phases of regime collapse. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2006/10/when-north-korea-falls/305228/

Phase One: resource depletion;

Phase Two: the failure to maintain infrastructure around the country because of resource depletion;

Phase Three: the rise of independent fiefs informally controlled by local party apparatchiks or warlords, along with widespread corruption to circumvent a failing central government;

Phase Four: the attempted suppression of these fiefs by the KFR once it feels that they have become powerful enough;

Phase Five: active resistance against the central government;

Phase Six: the fracture of the regime; and

Phase Seven: the formation of new national leadership.

We have long observed phases 1 through 4.

I think it is also important to recall our definition of regime collapse from our first contingency planning efforts in the 1990s. Collapse will occur when the regime cannot govern from the center and the military loses coherency. If the Kim family regime cannot govern the entire territory of the north from Pyongyang and the military chains of control break down so that the regime no longer as support of the military the regime will be unable to rule and survive.

But we should keep in mind the conditions that could lead to instability and regime collapse could also lead Kim Jong-un to execute his campaign plan to attack the South to unify the peninsula under North’s domination to ensure regime collapse. Instability and regime collapse will not be a benign event.

9. N.Korea 'Suspends Military Action' as Spy Planes Fly over

english.chosun.com · June 24, 2020

It is imperative to demonstrate readiness, strength, and resolve to maintain deterrence. Despite everything that is happening on the peninsula, the number one priority must be to deter an attack by Kim Jong-un. And of course, an ISR surge across the intelligence disciplines and with multiple platforms and capabilities is an absolute necessity at this time. We cannot be complacent just because the regime has given the appearance of somehow stepping back from the rhetorical brink.

10. Kim Jong Un Hits Pause Button on Threats Against South Korea

WSJ · by Andrew Jeong · June 24, 2020

The title is a good one. This may only be a pause. I have made points about the possibility of conflict and instability and regime collapse. But the pause button concept is important as well. We should never forget the regime is masterful at denial and deception. If we are seeing indicators in the North it may be what the regime wants us to see. The questions we have to keep in mind are always these:

Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?

In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula? Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?

We need to be vigilant for the North's deception.

11. U.S.' B-52 bombers are deployed near Korean Peninsula

donga.com · June 24, 2020

Strength and resolve.

12. Anti-North activists defy local bans on leaflet campaigns

koreajoongangdaily · by Shim Kyu-seok · June 23, 2020

Part of the regime's plan may be to continue to exploit the work of the escapees/defectors and say the South is allowing hostile actions from its territory. We should keep in mind the work of these groups is in support of human rights in the North. Recall the 2014 UN Commission of Inquiry that stated among the many human rights abuses and crimes against humanity the Korean people were denied information from the outside world and one of the recommendations was to provide information to the Korean people living in the North. The ROK and the ROK/US Alliance needs to stand up to the North's rhetoric against information operations and never again give into its threats.

13. U.S. concerned over North's nuclear activities in 2019: Report

koreajoongangdaily · by Sarah Kim · June 24, 2020

I have not read the report (but I just skimmed the North Kora section - link below). But we should remember that with everything happening on the Korean peninsula the regime is sitting on the proverbial powder keg.

Here is the link to the entire report:  https://www.state.gov/2020-adherence-to-and-compliance-with-arms-control-nonproliferation-and-disarmament-agreements-and-commitments-compliance-report-2/

Here is the link to the North Korean section: https://www.state.gov/2020-adherence-to-and-compliance-with-arms-control-nonproliferation-and-disarmament-agreements-and-commitments-compliance-report-2/#_Toc43298154

14. Seoul has to prepare for an era devoid of ROK-U.S. alliance

donga.com · June 24, 2020

This pains me to read. It does not have to be this way.

15. U.S. constantly assessing options to respond to N.K. threats: top general

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · June 24, 2020

The right message from the General. And as the PACAF commander he certainly provides critical airpower options to the ROK/US alliance.

16. [Korean War Anniversary] 'Just another day' still remembered 70 years on

koreaherald.com · by Choi He-suk · June 24, 2020

Tomorrow is the 70th Anniversary.

But June 24, 1950 is another important day. It is the anniversary of the grand opening of the ROK Army Officer's Club in Seoul. Most of the ROK military leadership was present that day (and night). I recall listening to General Paik Sun Yip, who was the young commander of the 1st ROK Division defending the Kaesong-Munsan approach. He tells of learning of the attack in the early morning hours of June 25th and getting in his jeep wearing his dress uniform and driving to the front line to command his division.
Surely the North Koreans were well aware of the grand opening and where all the ROK military leadership would be especially after they lulled the ROK and US into a sense of complacency as they halted their propaganda operations and called for negotiations in Kaesong.

-----------

"A popular government without popular information, or the means of acquiring it, is but a prologue to a farce or a tragedy, or perhaps both. Knowledge will forever govern ignorance, and a people who mean to be their own governors must arm themselves with the power which knowledge gives." 

- James Madison, from a letter to W.T. Barry, August 4, 1822

"The responsibility of great states is to serve and not to dominate the world."  

- Harry S. Truman, Message to Congress, April 16, 1945

"A trained and disciplined guerrilla is much more than a patriotic peasant, workman, or student armed with an antiquated fowling-piece and home-made bomb.  His endoctrination begins even before he is taught to shoot accurately, and it is unceasing.  The end product is an intensely loyal and politically alert fighting man." 

- Brig Gen S.B. Griffith in the Introduction to Mao's On Guerrilla Warfare, 1961.