News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Joint Communique of the 52nd U.S.-Republic of Korea Security Consultative Meeting

2. U.N. rights official urges easing of North Korea sanctions over coronavirus strain

3. U.N. rapporteur urges N.K. to punish those responsible for killing of S. Korean citizen at sea

4. U.S. Leans on Korea Not to Use Chinese Telecom Equipment

5.  Friction between allies is evident at defense meeting

6. RQ-4 Global Hawk 4 arrived in S. Korea last month

7. China's arrogance and hegemonism attacking BTS

8. S. Korea's national security adviser in U.S. on unannounced visit

9. What Trump got right - and wrong - with North Korea, explained by a former intel official

10. Kim Jong Un orders remodeling of major hotels in Pyongyang

11. N.K. establishes university named after leader Kim

12. North Korean man investigated for industrial espionage

13.  In his chess match with North Korea, Trump is clearly losing

14. North Korea's nuclear, missile programs 'serious threat' to security

15. Human rights groups call for U.N. resolution to include N. Korea's killing of S. Korean citizen

16. Ten Years After Debut, North Korea's Kim Celebrates Nuclear Accomplishments - and Acknowledges Hardships 

17. N. Korea upgrades surface-to-air weapons: Air Force chief

18. 'We wasted a lot of time': John Bolton says North Korea is 'more dangerous now'

19. North Korea's New Monster ICBM: Just How Deadly?

20. Esper says equitable burden-sharing necessary for 'stable stationing' of U.S. troops

21. IMF Revises Korea Growth Forecast Upwards

 

 

1. Joint Communique of the 52nd U.S.-Republic of Korea Security Consultative Meeting

defense.gov

Here is an issue someone flagged for me.  Are we moving THAAD to Camp Carroll? Excerpt: "The two leaders committed to make a long-term plan to establish the conditions for the stable stationing of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery at Camp Carroll as part of this commitment. The two leaders also pledged to explore jointly measures to enhance the Alliance deterrence posture and implement the Tailored Deterrence Strategy while considering the effects of changes in the security environment on the Peninsula and in the region."

The Korean version of the Joint Communique does not mention Camp Carroll.  I wonder why that is. What other differences are there in the two statements? Omitting Camp Carroll is not a simple translation error. Perhaps Camp Carroll was used simply as a reference point for the US side since most Americans are not familiar with the location of the battery on a former Lotte golf course!

My thought is the statement may have been intended to mean the conditions for stable stationing of THAAD include routine logistics support for the battery that comes from Camp Carroll and the ROK side would ensure the logistics support is not hindered by the protestors who continue to block the access road to the battery.  But if we are moving THAAD to Camp Carroll that is a significant change and I certainly did not see that coming.

 

2. U.N. rights official urges easing of North Korea sanctions over coronavirus strain

Reuters · by Josh Smith · October 15, 2020

With all due respect to Mr. Quintana, he received the message that Kim Jong-un intended -lift sanctions to help the suffering Korean people living in the north.  But he missed the actual truth.  Kim Jong-un has made the deliberate policy decision to build nuclear weapons and missiles and modernize his military at the expense of the welfare of the Korean people living in the north.   Sanctions are not harming the Korean people.  Kim Jong-un's policy choices are.  Please do not be duped by Kim Jong-un.   The second message intended for us is that sanctions have failed because he has modernized his military despite them therefore we should lift them.  The action we should take is to recommit to aggressive enforcement of sanctions to prevent the continued modernization and support to the military and the regime.

 

3. U.N. rapporteur urges N.K. to punish those responsible for killing of S. Korean citizen at sea

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · October 15, 2020

How does Kim punish himself and the members of the Kim family regime as they are responsible for the brutal murder of the South Korean civil servant?  The soldiers who committed the murder should not be scapegoated because doing so will let Kim Jong-un off the hook.  I hope we do not end up seeing a show trial and public execution. I doubt that will happen since based on reports the soldiers have already been rewarded for their "heroic" actions.

 

4. U.S. Leans on Korea Not to Use Chinese Telecom Equipment

english.chosun.com – 15 October 2020

Note: "The Korean government said it will consider the request and reminded the U.S. that the issue involves private businesses."  

It is interesting the Koreans would use the "private business" excuse since the ROK government has historically been deeply engaged in influencing private business.  The "Miracle on the Han" is partially a result of government management of and support to certain industrial sectors.

One of the issues about this is security of the military alliance.  If the ROK military adopts C4I systems that depend on equipment from these "private businesses" it could be a security risk for the ROK and US military.

 

5.  Friction between allies is evident at defense meeting

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

Not a good sign.  I hope the Joongang Ilbo is reading more into this though the cancellation of a joint press event could be a negative indicator.

This is the key issue from the Korean side: "Such reluctance from Washington has amplified suspicions in South Korea that the United States may have changed its mind about returning OPCON altogether, in light of growing security threats in the region stemming from a nuclear-armed North Korea and an aggressive China."

I think the US still supports and desires the OPCON TRANSITION  (I correctly used the Korean term of "transfer" in my first message on the SCM joint communique - it is a transition of OPCON to a Korean general officer in command of the ROK/US CFC - it is not a transfer of OPCON from Washington to Seoul.  But it believes that the conditions must be met because those conditions are critical to the security of the ROK and alliance forces.  I do not think the US wants to back out of the agreement (and especially not over China).  I believe the US is standing firm on conditions-based transition because that is the way the security of the ROK is ensured.  If Moon administration politics is allowed to dominate it will not only damage the alliance it will put South Korea at risk from the north.

 

6. RQ-4 Global Hawk 4 arrived in S. Korea last month

donga.com – by Eun-Taek Lee – 15 October 2020

Good for the alliance and the ROK military.

 

7. China's arrogance and hegemonism attacking BTS

donga.com – 14 October 2020

I spoke about this on the John Batchelor Show last evening (as well as the ROK Ambassador's comments on the alliance for the future) (link to the program here: https://audioboom.com/posts/7706069-south-korea-doesn-t-have-to-remain-allied-with-the-us-reinterpreted-davidmaxwell161-gordo). 

My point was it was appropriate for BTS to honor ROK and US soldiers for defending freedom. We should always remember that Kim Il Sung deliberately attacked the South and the Chinese People's Volunteers intervened to aid and support the aggressor.  The responsibility for deaths of some 5 million people lies with Kim Il Sung and China is complicit in those deaths. So, China deserves no honor, respect, or recognition for its actions in the Korean War, especially not from Korean citizens like BTS.

 

8.  S. Korea's national security adviser in U.S. on unannounced visit

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 15, 2020

Yes, I did not know he was visiting.

 

9. What Trump got right - and wrong - with North Korea, explained by a former intel official

Vox · by Alex Ward · October 14, 2020

From the former National Intelligence Officer for Korea.  Some very interesting insights.  Quote: "Garlauskas laid out a game plan for whoever occupies the White House next year: Get North Korea to stop testing missiles and nuclear bombs, and then develop a policy to convince Pyongyang to part with its weapons. Halting those tests will give the US the space to develop the right mix of pressure and persuasion. "Otherwise you're just reacting to them - and then you're in another really, really tough spot," Garlauskas said."

I really agree with the point that we are always reacting, and no administration has really seized the initiative.  Yes, President Trump's unconventional, experimental, top-down, pen-pal diplomacy was an attempt to seize the initiative but so far it has not been sufficient to move Kim Jong-un.  This is likely because Kim Jong-un has not and will likely not ever give his strategy to dominate the peninsula through subversion, coercion/extortion (blackmail diplomacy) and use of force.  Either Kim gives up that strategy or we must focus on the underlying problem on the peninsula, the "Korea question."

 

10. Kim Jong Un orders remodeling of major hotels in Pyongyang

dailynk.com – Jeong Tae Joo - October 13, 2020

Priorities.  Deliberate policy decisions by Kim Jong-un. Another action that denies resources to the Korean people in the north (I doubt any of the rooms will be used by any Koreans from throughout the country.

 

11. N.K. establishes university named after leader Kim

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · October 14, 2020

Another important action that will do nothing to help the suffering of the Korean people in the north.

 

12. North Korean man investigated for industrial espionage

dailynk.com – by Kim Yoo Jin - October 14, 2020

I did not know north Korea-style cosmetics were a state secret.

 

13. In his chess match with North Korea, Trump is clearly losing

msnbc.com · by Steve Benen · October 14, 2020

The chess match (or Go or Paduk) is not over.  We have to play our long game to Kim's long con.

 

14.  North Korea's nuclear, missile programs 'serious threat' to security

Reuters · by Reuters Staff · October 15, 2020

Even though the new missiles have not been tested or have proven operational capability we have to take them seriously but testing these will also significantly raise tensions.  Whether these are real missiles or mock-ups they are also likely a key part of the regime's negotiating strategy. 

 

15. Human rights groups call for U.N. resolution to include N. Korea's killing of S. Korean citizen

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · October 15, 2020

A UN Security Council resolution would likely be vetoed by China or Russia.  But we need to exert pressure on the regime for its human rights abuses in every forum and in any manner possible.

 

16.  Ten Years After Debut, North Korea's Kim Celebrates Nuclear Accomplishments - and Acknowledges Hardships 

The National Interest · by Jean H. Lee · October 14, 2020

Jean Lee was in Pyongyang for a number of years to witness the hardships and changes.

 

17.  N. Korea upgrades surface-to-air weapons: Air Force chief

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · October 15, 2020

One of the very first targets if the north re-initiates hostilities and attacks the South will be the regime's integrated air defense system so we can gain immediate air superiority.

 

18. 'We wasted a lot of time': John Bolton says North Korea is 'more dangerous now'

Washington Examiner · by Zachary Halaschak · October 14, 2020

 

19. North Korea's New Monster ICBM: Just How Deadly?

The National Interest · by Malcolm Davis · October 14, 2020

Yes, it is a threat, but we cannot know how effective until we see it tested.

But here is the buried lede from this article: "Of course, these developments can't be viewed in isolation from the broader US-China strategic competition. Beijing ultimately wants US forces out of northeast Asia and getting US forces off the Korean peninsula would be a first step in that process, a goal that naturally aligns with Kim's interests. A Kim who could use his more capable nuclear weapons to provide leverage to act in ways Beijing doesn't control wouldn't be good news for Chinese leader Xi Jinping, however."

 

20. Esper says equitable burden-sharing necessary for 'stable stationing' of U.S. troops

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 15, 2020

Has anyone clearly described what is equitable?  As a good friend from Korea mentioned to me perhaps, we describe the SMA process all wrong.  It is not about sharing a burden.  It is not a burden that we are protecting and advancing our mutual interests and our mutual national security.  These are the costs of national security for both nations and we should consider the funding as a commitment to security and not as a burden.  It is a necessity.

 

21. IMF Revises Korea Growth Forecast Upwards

english.chosun.com

Some good news for Korea.

 

"He who controls the past, controls the future. He who controls the present controls the past."

-George Orwell

 

"A complete and generous education fits a man to perform justly, skillfully and magnanimously all the offices of peace and war."

- John Milton

 

"Your surviving spy must be a man of keen intellect although in outward appearance a fool; of shabby exterior but with a will of iron.  He must be active, robust, endowed with physical strength and courage, thoroughly accustomed to all sorts of dirty work; able to endure hunger and cold and to put up with shame and ignominy."

-Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Written by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs.

fdd.org · by David Maxwell Senior Fellow · October 14, 2020

On October 10, North Korea celebrated the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Workers Party of Korea with a well-choreographed military parade. After months of speculation among the Korea watcher community, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un unveiled what apparently are his new strategic weapons systems. These include possibly the largest road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in the world and a new submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). In addition, the North Korean People's Army (NKPA) displayed a wide array of advanced conventional military equipment. The celebration provided three distinct and important messages to the Korean people in the North and to South Korea, the United States, and the international community.

Pyongyang's first message was one of deterrence. Kim said that if "any forces infringe upon the security of our state and attempt to have recourse to military force against us, I will enlist all our most powerful offensive strength in advance to punish them." While this message sounds defensive in nature, Kim was essentially threatening the North's adversaries with a possible preemptive strike. Washington cannot take this lightly, because the newly displayed ICBM could pose a direct and dangerous threat to the United States.

Such a threat is plausible if the new ICBM contains a multiple independent reentry vehicle (MIRV) capability, which increases the chances of defeating missile defenses based in the continental United States. Furthermore, North Korea has not tested these new missiles, and they are not yet operational. This raises the question of whether they are in fact real. If they are, then these ICBMs constitute as strong a deterrence message as Kim could send to the United States, even though he never once mentioned the United States in his speech.

Kim's second message was that sanctions have failed to prevent the regime from modernizing and advancing its military capabilities. Kim likely sought to demonstrate this point to persuade the United States and South Korea to lift these measures in potential future negotiations.

The display of military strength also targeted the Korean people in the North. Specifically, the regime intended for the showcasing of military equipment and personnel to raise morale in the North amid a period of economic hardship. Kim even added a tearful apology for the plight of his people, which garnered much attention from the press.

Yet, like his response to the brutal murder of a South Korean government official in September, Kim's words of remorse were a "non-apology apology." He deflected blame for the people's suffering away from his poor leadership and placed it on the pandemic, natural disasters, and sanctions. For instance, he said that North Korea is the only country "that is faced with huge challenges and difficulties, like dealing with the anti-epidemic emergency and recovering from the catastrophic natural disasters, when everything is in short supply owing to the harsh and prolonged sanctions."

Taken together, these two messages, like typical regime propaganda, aim to harden the resolve of the Korean people in the North and spur them to stand strong in the face of hostile policies that Washington has enacted on the regime. The Korean people, said Kim, will prevail over external, man-made, and natural hardships. The development of these advanced military capabilities, he suggested, is proof that neither sanctions nor nature can bring down the regime.

Interestingly, according to a report by Radio Free Asia, Koreans in the North are skeptical of Kim's apology and what they described as his "crocodile tears." South Korea, the United States, and the international community should be as well. In addition, a message that should be sent to the Korean people in the North is that their suffering is actually a result of Kim's policy decisions, not sanctions. The responsibility for their suffering lies squarely on Kim's shoulders because he has chosen to spend the country's scarce resources on weapons and not on the wellbeing of its people.

Kim's third message was directed at South Korea. He extended an olive branch to the administration of South Korean President Moon Jae-in, stating, "I also send this warm wish of mine to our dear fellow countrymen in the south, and hope that this health crisis would come to an end as early as possible and the day would come when the north and south take each other's hand again." But this statement, like Kim's non-apology for the September killing of a South Korean official, is hollow.

For two years, the South has implemented confidence-building measures, without any reciprocity from the North, in accordance with the so-called Comprehensive Military Agreement that was part of the 2018 Pyongyang Declaration. In fact, from the February 2019 Hanoi summit through July 2020, the North conducted some 31 missile and rocket tests, which pose a direct threat to South Korean and U.S. forces. As the parade and Kim's own words demonstrate, the NKPA continues to develop offensive capabilities to attack the South.

Kim's supposed olive branch aims to convey the message that the Moon administration wants to hear so that Seoul will continue to pursue engagement, which Pyongyang can eventually exploit to extract concessions. Yet there has been no change to the regime's long-term goal of dominating the entire peninsula. Although the North has revised its constitution numerous times, Article Two has remained consistent: "The DPRK is a revolutionary state which has inherited brilliant traditions formed during the glorious revolutionary struggle against the imperialist aggressors, in the struggle to achieve the liberation of the homeland and the freedom and wellbeing of the people."

This provision makes the relationship between the North and the South zero-sum. The North remains committed to completing the revolution and achieving the liberation of the entire homeland.

In this context, the parade and speech provided the groundwork for the regime to continue its political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy - namely, the use of provocations and tensions to gain political and economic concessions - against both the United States and South Korea after the U.S. election.

Based on Pyongyang's history of provocations, the United States should expect North Korea to conduct a significant provocation, such as testing the new ICBM, as the U.S. presidential election nears. The regime's intent would be to bring the United States to the negotiating table. However, with the introduction of the new ICBM and SLBM, Kim may propose arms control talks rather than denuclearization negotiations, an idea some scholars favor. Such talks would solidify the North as a nuclear power and would be a victory for Kim's political warfare strategy.

South Korea and the United States must not be duped by Kim. The United States should choose to return to negotiations with Pyongyang only if the Kim regime provides concessions of its own to demonstrate its genuine commitment to a verifiable nuclear dismantlement. Without such proof, any direct negotiations are Kim's traps for either premature sanctions relief or other favored concessions.

South Korea must also re-examine the assumptions upon which the Moon administration has based its policies and strategies since Moon assumed office. Kim's actions and words demonstrate that he does not seek peaceful coexistence with the South. Kim has no intention of adhering to the Comprehensive Military Agreement and continues to pose an existential threat to the South, with the fourth-largest army in the world still postured for offensive operations just north of the Demilitarized Zone. Most importantly, Kim will not denuclearize the North. South Korea must accept these realities and re-evaluate its policies and strategies.

The United States and South Korea must respond appropriately to Pyongyang's messaging through this parade by ramping up the pressure to decisively change Kim's strategic rationale and counter his political warfare strategy.

David Maxwell, a 30-year veteran of the United States Army and retired Special Forces colonel, is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he also contributes to FDD's Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP). For more analysis from David and CMPP, please subscribe HERE. Follow David on Twitter @davidmaxwell161. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CMPP. FDD is a Washington-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Made in Germany, Co-opted by China

2. China’s Belt and Road Initiative Is a Mess, Not a Master Plan

3. Options for Taiwan to Better Compete with China

4. U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy undermines peace, development prospect in East Asia: Wang Yi

5. Edward C. Meyer, general who revamped post-Vietnam ‘hollow Army,’ dies at 91

6. Remarks by Deputy Secretary Stephen E. Biegun (Quad)

7. The Korean War’s Lesson for Taiwan

8. On Transparency and Foreign Funding of U.S. Think Tanks

9. State Department to Call on American Think Tanks to Disclose Foreign Funding

10. UK journalist releases book detailing U.S. military's contamination of Pacific region with toxic substances

11. China threatens invasion of Taiwan in new video showing military might

12. The Important Difference Between Cybersecurity And Cyber Resilience (And Why You Need Both)

13. As Taiwan's profile rises, so does risk of conflict with China

14. Nobody Puts IW in an Annex: It’s Time to Embrace Irregular Warfare as a Strategic Priority

15. US: Russia Has Agreed to Extend New START to Tactical Nukes. Russia: No, We Haven’t

16. How two-man US Army crews in Oceania will shape Defender Pacific 2021

17. ‘China’s Good War’ Review: Present at the Creation (Book review)

18. 5 questions with the commander of a special ops signal battalion

19. China uses new tactic in campaign against Taiwan with spy accusations

20. Army SFAB advisers will have to share some friends with China

 

1. Made in Germany, Co-opted by China

FDD · by Emily de La Bruyère and Nathan Picarsic · October 9, 2020

The 29 page PDF of this monograph can be downloaded at the link. 

EXSUM here.

 

2. China’s Belt and Road Initiative Is a Mess, Not a Master Plan

Foreign Policy · by Lee Jones · October 9, 2020

RE: "Arguably, rather than denouncing and trying to curtail the BRI, Western policymakers would be better off encouraging it. Overextension and poor oversight are generating substantial pushback against China in many BRI countries, without any outside interference."

That would be part of a coherent, well orchestrated, and long term sustained political warfare strategy.”

Other excerpts:

“Although this has led to some tightening of outbound investment, notably around real estate, still around half of Chinese overseas investments are loss-making.

However, nefarious interests are also often at work. Construction is an incredibly corrupt economic sector. Elites can extract kickbacks, allocate projects for electoral advantage, and insert their business cronies into lucrative joint ventures. Greed can easily overwhelm rational development planning, especially if recipients wrongly assume that China will do their due diligence for them. Harm is compounded where governments fail to regulate Chinese firms adequately, and neglect to consult or compensate affected populations.”

 

3. Options for Taiwan to Better Compete with China

divergentoptions.org · by Thomas J. Shattuck · October 14, 2020

 

4. U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy undermines peace, development prospect in East Asia: Wang Yi

english.cctv.com

Again, "what is of supreme importance is to attack the enemy's strategy."    China is invoking Sun Tzu.

 

5.  Edward C. Meyer, general who revamped post-Vietnam ‘hollow Army,’ dies at 91

The Washington Post· by Matt Schudel · October 14, 2020

The loss of a great American soldier.  Rest in peace General.

 

6. Remarks by Deputy Secretary Stephen E. Biegun (Quad)

state.gov · by Stephen Biegun, Deputy Secretary of State

Two key points:

“But I should also be clear that the security partnerships the United States and our partners explore today do not necessarily need to follow the model of the last century of mutual defense treaties with a heavy in-country U.S. troop presence. Today we benefit from forging close links with countries, like India, that share our vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific and that seek to provide for their own defense. In this context, the United States certainly benefits from an India that is as strong and prosperous. And our cooperation can come in far more ways than in the past, particularly with the advance of technology, the shifts in global economic influence, and changing geopolitical circumstances.

...

As Ambassador Kantha also suggested, cooperation between the United States and India does not have to be limited to a bilateral or Quad format but can extend to broader areas of shared interests and with other like-minded partners, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. The Quad is a partnership driven by shared interests, not binding obligations, and is not intended to be an exclusive grouping. Any country that seeks a free and open Indo-Pacific and is willing to take steps to ensure that, should be welcome to work with us.”

 

7. The Korean War’s Lesson for Taiwan

WSJ · by Paul Wolfowitz· October 14, 2020

A lesson yes.  But Kim Il-sung was able to manipulate both Stalin and Mao which I think is lost on many of us.  Acheson's statement surely helped Kim make his argument but it is a question as to whether it was decisive.  Kim likely would have found another way to get Stalin's support.

 

8.  On Transparency and Foreign Funding of U.S. Think Tanks

state.gov · by Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State

Will this change the think tank landscape in Washington?  I am proud to be a member of FDD which takes no foreign funding.

 

9. State Department to Call on American Think Tanks to Disclose Foreign Funding

National Review Online · by Brittany Bernstein · October 13, 2020

The links in the article go to some old reports that are still fascinating.

 

10. UK journalist releases book detailing U.S. military's contamination of Pacific region with toxic substances

xinhuanet.com

Perfect IO opportunity for the CCP and China. No doubt they want to explicit this UK report.

 

11. China threatens invasion of Taiwan in new video showing military might

The Washington Post· by Gerry Shih · October 12, 2020

The CCP/PRC/PLA are upping their overt influence operations.

 

12. The Important Difference Between Cybersecurity And Cyber Resilience (And Why You Need Both)

Forbes · by Bernard Marr · October 14, 2020

And cyber hygiene is well.

 

13. As Taiwan's profile rises, so does risk of conflict with China

Axios · by Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian

 

14. Nobody Puts IW in an Annex: It’s Time to Embrace Irregular Warfare as a Strategic Priority

mwi.usma.edu · by David H. Ucko · October 14, 2020

But an annex is better than nothing!

There is much with which I agree with in this excellent essay by David Ucko.

I would summarize his conclusion this way: "Its strategy, stupid." (apologies to a former president).  We have all the tools.  We have all the concepts.  We have all the capabilities. We need to be able to develop strategy with balance and coherency among ends ways and means with the objective to achieve the durable acceptable political arrangements that will support and advance US interests. And of course this is not solely up to the military and must be part of a broad political warfare strategy or simply statecraft and grand strategy.

Conclusion: "Most fundamental to this type of reform, however, are not the means or concepts developed, or even the capabilities built, but rather the overall strategy adopted by the state, as informed by a clear sense of policy and purpose. The objectives of irregular warfare are influence, credibility, and legitimacy, which are seen as preconditions for power. As America reflects upon its role in the world, it is perhaps within these areas where greater investment is most urgently needed."

 

15. US: Russia Has Agreed to Extend New START to Tactical Nukes. Russia: No, We Haven’t

defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker

What is the ground truth?

 

16. How two-man US Army crews in Oceania will shape Defender Pacific 2021

Defense News · by Jen Judson · October 13, 2020

Less can be more.

 

17.  ‘China’s Good War’ Review: Present at the Creation (Book review)

WSJ · by Howard W. French · October 14, 2020

Look forward to reading the assessment of the China watchers about this book.  My to read book pile is getting pretty high and about to tip over.

 

18. 5 questions with the commander of a special ops signal battalion

c4isrnet.com · by Andrew Eversden · October 13, 2020

 

19. China uses new tactic in campaign against Taiwan with spy accusations

ca.reuters.com · by Ben Blanchard

 

20. Army SFAB advisers will have to share some friends with China

Defense News · by Kyle Rempfer · October 14, 2020

 What appear to be some pretty high level policy assessments/statements from the SFAB commanders: “That does not mean we’re demanding that everyone we work with make a choice of us over other neighbors,” Taylor added. “We recognize that our partners out there, they’re not going to change their neighborhood, and so they have to work with a number of different partners."

In interesting division of labor:

“Contrary to what some first expected, the point of SFABs in Africa is not to replace the special operations forces that have carved out a niche there, advising local units through counter-terrorism efforts like the 127 Echo program.”

Hough framed the SFAB advisers' work in Africa as “complementary” to what special operators are doing.

“We focus on our host nation conventional forces,” Hough said. “And we complement SOF with what they’re doing throughout those regions, as well.”

 

---------------------

 

A laconic phrase or laconism is a concise or terse statement, especially a blunt and elliptical rejoinder.

It is named after Laconia, the region of Greece including the city of Sparta, whose ancient inhabitants had a reputation for verbal austerity and were famous for their blunt and often pithy remarks.

A great example involves Philip II of Macedon.

After invading southern Greece and receiving the submission of other key city-states, he turned his attention to Sparta and asked menacingly whether he should come as friend or foe. The reply was "Neither."

Losing patience, he sent the message:

You are advised to submit without further delay, for if I bring my army into your land, I will destroy your farms, slay your people, and raze your city.

The Spartan ephors again replied with a single word: "If."

Subsequently, neither Philip nor his son Alexander the Great attempted to capture the city.

Hat tip to Wikipedia (and Facebook)

 

"It's part of a writer's profession, as it's part of a spy's profession, to prey on the community to which he's attached, to take away information - often in secret - and to translate that into intelligence for his masters, whether it's his readership or his spy masters. And I think that both professions are perhaps rather lonely."

- John le Carre 

 

“Thus it has come about that our theoretical and critical literature, instead of giving plain, straightforward arguments in which the author at least always knows what he is saying and the reader what he is reading, is crammed with jargon, ending at obscure crossroads where the author loses its readers. Sometimes these books are even worse: they are just hollow shells. The author himself no longer knows just what he is thinking and soothes himself with obscure ideas which would not satisfy him if expressed in plain speech.”
- Major General Carl von Clausewitz

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. UN Warns N.Korea's New Missile Violates Resolutions

2. N.Korea's New Weapons Raise Questions over Int'l Sanctions

3. Trump Seals Kim Jong Un Bromance with Shoutout Despite Mega-Missile Show

4. Defense minister heads to U.S. for talks with Esper 

5. S. Korea capable of intercepting N.K.'s new multiple rocket launchers: defense ministry

6. US missed 'golden opportunity' by walking out of Hanoi summit with N. Korea: Hecker

7. North Korea's new massive missiles 'not much more of a threat,' Gen. Jack Keane says

8. Some North Koreans Bristle at ‘Sneaky’ Army Parade, Mock Kim’s Apology

9. North Korea’s Workers’ Party Turned 75: Nothing to Celebrate

10. Moon Asks Slain Official's Son to Be Patient

11. North Korea has unveiled new weapons, showing Trump failed to tame its nuclear program

12. North Korean military parade offers a sober reminder of the original ‘forever war’

13. The Guardian view on North Korea's missiles: Trump and proliferation | Editorial

14. N.K. appoints new Strategic Force commander overseeing missiles

15. Assessing the rise of Ri Pyong Chol in North Korea's military

16. North Korea's Kim pledges thousands of new homes in storm recovery effort: state media

17. North Korea's Big October 10th Military Parade: The Facade Kim Wants You to See

18.  

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. UN Warns N.Korea's New Missile Violates Resolutions

2. N.Korea's New Weapons Raise Questions over Int'l Sanctions

3. Trump Seals Kim Jong Un Bromance with Shoutout Despite Mega-Missile Show

4. Defense minister heads to U.S. for talks with Esper 

5. S. Korea capable of intercepting N.K.'s new multiple rocket launchers: defense ministry

6. US missed 'golden opportunity' by walking out of Hanoi summit with N. Korea: Hecker

7. North Korea's new massive missiles 'not much more of a threat,' Gen. Jack Keane says

8. Some North Koreans Bristle at ‘Sneaky’ Army Parade, Mock Kim’s Apology

9. North Korea’s Workers’ Party Turned 75: Nothing to Celebrate

10. Moon Asks Slain Official's Son to Be Patient

11. North Korea has unveiled new weapons, showing Trump failed to tame its nuclear program

12. North Korean military parade offers a sober reminder of the original ‘forever war’

13. The Guardian view on North Korea's missiles: Trump and proliferation | Editorial

14. N.K. appoints new Strategic Force commander overseeing missiles

15. Assessing the rise of Ri Pyong Chol in North Korea's military

16. North Korea's Kim pledges thousands of new homes in storm recovery effort: state media

17. North Korea's Big October 10th Military Parade: The Facade Kim Wants You to See

18. Former USFK Base in Incheon returned to citizens after 81 years

19. U.S. renews calls on S. Korea to join economic security campaign against China

 

1. UN Warns N.Korea's New Missile Violates Resolutions

english.chosun.com· October 14, 2020

There should be no doubt but it is good to see the UN and EU acknowledge this.

 

2. N.Korea's New Weapons Raise Questions over Int'l Sanctions

english.chosun.com· October 12, 2020

Yes, Kim was flouting sanctions. Yes, the default criticism is sanctions have failed.  But from an information and influence activities perspective he has put himself in a bind that can, should, and must be exploited.   He blamed sanctions for the people's suffering while showing off his advanced military equipment. Pundits and north Korean apologists blames sanctions for the suffering of the people just as Kim Jong-un does.  But the fact is it is Kim's policy decisions that are the root cause of the people's suffering.  First, it is his actions that have caused the sanctions to be imposed.  But second, he has chosen to put his resources in nuclear and missile development and fielding advanced military equipment in order to deter what is really a made up threat from the South.  South Korea and the US are going to invade the north all the rhetoric notwithstanding.  The regime builds up the threat in order to provide the excuse to deny the Korean people in the north resources and their human rights so that Kim Jong-un may remain in power.  He could have prioritized the welfare of the people but he has not.  His appearances and speeches and pledges to focus on the economy and rebuild after the natural disasters are merely PR events and are not based on any real commitment to the welfare of the people.  We should not be duped by him and we should expose him for who he really is, e.g., one of, if not the most, despotic leaders in the 21st Century.

 

3. Trump Seals Kim Jong Un Bromance with Shoutout Despite Mega-Missile Show

The Daily Beast · October 13, 2020

My comments (among a number of others) are in the article.

 

4. Defense minister heads to U.S. for talks with Esper 

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · October 13, 2020

The Security Consultative Meeting is taking place today.  I look forward to the Joint Statement, hopefully by tomorrow.

 

5. S. Korea capable of intercepting N.K.'s new multiple rocket launchers: defense ministry

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · October 13, 2020

So is the "kill-chain" concept and the Korean Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) system fully operational?  "Intercepting" rockets from multiple rocket launch systems is not an easy task.

 

6. US missed 'golden opportunity' by walking out of Hanoi summit with N. Korea: Hecker

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · October 7, 2020

I am resending the article below because Robert Collins has provided some very insightful and important comments that must be understood by negotiators.  Dr. Hecker's advice should be re-examined and accepted with caution (if at all). Yes he has had a lot of access to north Korea and its nuclear facilities but I fear he does not fully grasp the nature of the Kim family regime.  Eliminating the north Korea's Nuclear Weapons Institute would likely not have been a good deal.

From Robert Collins:

“Sigfried Hecker recently stated that POTUS missed an opportunity at Hanoi to get rid of North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Institute. In Hecker's mind this would have crippled NK's nuke weapons program. Should a KJU-POTUS agreement have been made, one should assume how KJU would have shifted his nuclear scientists and their research to other nuclear organizations, thus not ending their research. We all know that such has been the pattern for decades. Hecker understands nuclear science, but North Korea...not so much.

Conceivably, KJU could disperse the mission, but that would impair the most important part of the research....collaboration between nuclear physicists, quantum physics scientists (these two are different), nuclear chemists, metallurgy specialists (how does one encase the bomb), nuclear electronics, mathematicians, and other necessary contributors.”

Here are some of those organizations to which KJU could have transferred the mission:

North Korean Nuclear Scientists Primary Assignment Locations

•       Yongbyon Nuclear Complex

•       101^st, 206^th and 304^th Research Institutes (nuclear weapon development)

•       Uranium Resources Development Research Institute

•       Nuclear Physics Research Institute

•       Radiation Chemistry Test Facility

•       Nuclear Materials Research Institute

•       Nuclear Power Research Institute

•       Isotope Production Research Institute

•       Neutron Physics Research Institute

•       Nuclear Reactor Design Research Institute

•       Nuclear Electronics Research Institute

•       Radiation Protection Research Institute

•       Branch offices of the Nuclear Power Research Institute are located in Nanam, Wonsan and Pakchon

•       1^st Natural Science Research Institute (nuclear fission research)

•       2^nd Natural Science Academy

•       83rd Research Institute, Kim Jong-un re-designated as the Nuclear Weapons Research Institute

•       216^th Research Institute (nuclear program supervision; located in Pyongyang)

•       38^th Research Institute

•       19^th Research Institute (testing in Kilju County –Punggye-ri)

•       Kangson Nuclear Enrichment Site

 

7. North Korea's new massive missiles 'not much more of a threat,' Gen. Jack Keane says

foxbusiness.com · by Joshua Nelson

Yes, these missiles might be mock-ups for deception purposes.  It is true they have never been tested (that we have detected and I am sure we would have detected their testing).

Yes it is liquid fueled which is a weakness from a number of perspectives.  Also, as Robert Collins has pointed out this 22 wheeled TEL is likely to have a hard time maneuvering on the extremely poor road infrastructure in north Korea.  Only 9% of the roads are paved in the north. This behemoth may have some real challenges which might reduce the advantages of mobile systems.

That said, the north has proven very capable and often surprised us when we downplay their threat.  Comments like these are just what Kim wants to allow him to test his weapons to "prove" their capabilities.

General, please remember your Sun Tzu, "never assume the enemy will not attack, make yourself invincible."  Let us not over-react but let us not reckless minimize the threat.

 

8. Some North Koreans Bristle at ‘Sneaky’ Army Parade, Mock Kim’s Apology

rfa.org· by Sewon Kim and Erin Ji· October 12 2020

Thanks to Radio Free Asia for this report.  Not all Koreans in the north are "brainwashed."

Excerpts:

“However, the residents feel disgust as if they are watching a three-generation play, saying that they have endured hunger while hearing the lies of three generations of Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Un that they work for the people,” the source said.

“The reason why we are poor is because of the supreme leadership’s refusal to reform and open up to maintain the dictatorship. What other reason is there?”

“Some residents are mocking the highest dignity, saying how urgent the highest dignity would be to act with tears. After ignoring the livelihood of the resident and devoted only to the development of weapons, now he is worried about the crisis of the system. He must have very complicated feelings,” the source said.

 

9. North Korea’s Workers’ Party Turned 75: Nothing to Celebrate

hrnkinsider.org · by Greg Scarlatoiu and Committee for Human Rights in North Korea · October 13, 2020

Important commentary from my good friend Greg Scarlatoiu. "Kim is the party, and the party is Kim, pursuant to North Korea’s monolithic ideology."

 

10. Moon Asks Slain Official's Son to Be Patient

english.chosun.com· October 14, 2020

This is going to haunt the Moon Administration for the rest of its term.

 

11. North Korea has unveiled new weapons, showing Trump failed to tame its nuclear program

Vox · by Alex Ward · October 13, 2020

Yes, a leader is responsible for all that his or her organization does or fails to do.  However, the north Korean problem and the Korea question are not easy ones.  We should not forget that the number one threat is war on the Korean peninsula.  We have a sense of complacency since we have effectively deterred a renewal of hostilities for the past 67 years. Yes the nuclear problem is dangerous and complex.  I would also submit there is no president who can solve the nuclear problem without addressing the Korea question in support of our ally and ensuring the emergence of an acceptable durable political arrangement that will support, sustain, and advance the interests of the US and the ROK/US alliance.

 

12. North Korean military parade offers a sober reminder of the original ‘forever war’

responsiblestatecraft.org · by Jessica Lee · October 12, 2020

I would just note Kim Il-sung started the "forever war" when he attacked the South to eliminate a nascent free country.  The Kim family regime has been given ample opportunity to live to agreements through the decades such as the 1992 Agreement on Reconciliation, Non-aggression and Engagement (ARNE) among others.  There have been numerous agreements on denuclearization (including the North Agreement on Denuclearization in 1992) but also the Agreed Framework, the September 2005 agreement, the Leap Day agreement and others.  The bottom line is the Kim family regime that is perpetuating the "forever war" because it has as its sole strategic aim is the unification of the peninsula under the domination of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.  The 10-10 parade has reinforced the regime's willingness to perpetuate the forever war and use force when its long con, political warfare, and blackmail diplomacy strategies fail.  We must never underestimate the nature of the Kim family regime and its will to achieve its objectives.

 

13. The Guardian view on North Korea's missiles: Trump and proliferation | Editorial

The Guardian · by Editorial · October 13, 2020

And Kim Jong-un must shoulder most of the blame.

Conclusion: "Mr Trump is not the only one to blame, of course, and a Biden presidency would not be able to transform matters overnight. But Mr Biden has at least said he would extend the New Start treaty with Russia, which expires early next year, while the Trump administration, which has failed to sign a single non-proliferation deal so far, suddenly scrambles to agree something before the election. President Biden would also be anxious to restore the image of the US as a reliable partner. But even if the Democrat wins, undoing the damage of the last four years will be a long and difficult task."

 

14. N.K. appoints new Strategic Force commander overseeing missiles

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · October 14, 2020

Kim shows us his priorities with his personnel assignments.

 

15. Assessing the rise of Ri Pyong Chol in North Korea's military

dailynk.com · by Ha Yoon Ah · October 14, 2020

Again - personnel equals priority.

Let me reprise Robert Collins' assessment of Ri Pyong Chol.   This is important for all Korea watchers:
 

“Ri Pyong-chol (alt. spelling Byong-chol) is currently the Director of the Korean Workers' Party Munitions Industry Department which is in charge of all weapons production. In this position, he oversees not only missile programs, but the nuclear program as well, and all other weapons programs. Other key personnel are certainly supervising components of those programs under Ri's Party oversight. Ri also attends with Kim Jong-un the observance of "new weapon systems."  Ri is also a member of the KWP Politburo, a vice-director of the KWP Central Committee, a member of the KWP Central Military Committee, a member of the DPRK State Affairs Commission, and a delegate of the 14th DPRK Supreme People's Assembly. In addition to being a former Commander of the North Korean Air Force, he is also rumored to be the father of Kim Jong-un's wife, Ri Sol-ju. 

He is without doubt the most significant advisor Kim Jong-un has in the face of crisis due to his high-level experience in both the military and the party. No one else compares even closely.”

 

16.  North Korea's Kim pledges thousands of new homes in storm recovery effort: state media

Reuters · by Sangmi Cha · October 13, 2020

Simply PR.

 

17. North Korea's Big October 10th Military Parade: The Facade Kim Wants You to See

The National Interest · by Hazel Smith · October 13, 2020

Yes, the regime shows us what they want us to see.  It is masterful at denial and deception.  With all due respect to Dr. Smith - there is always a military solution.  Unfortunately, the cost for that solution is always too high.  But what we need to focus on is solving the Korea question because that will bring the acceptable durable political arrangement that will be security and stability to the Korean peninsula.

Conclusion: "Pyongyang’s military parades didn’t reveal much that we don’t know already, but it serves as a reminder of the obvious. North Korea’s expansion of ballistic and nuclear programs brings increased risk of dangerous conflict because wars are often unintended, caused by accident or unanticipated. If war broke out, weapons of mass destruction could be used by all sides. North Korea cannot win militarily, but all will lose in case of conflict. United States military war-planning anticipates millions of deaths if war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula. There is no military solution to the political conflict on the Korean peninsula. It is time for substantive diplomatic initiatives."

 

18. Former USFK base in Incheon returned to citizens after 81 years

koreaherald.com · by Lee Jae-eun · October 14, 2020

I have fond memories of making the drive from Camp Greaves on the DMZ to Camp Market.  In 1996 we drove 121 Jeeps there and returned with 82 HMMWVs when I was with the 1-9 Infantry.

Also when we were training with the ROK 5th Special Forces Brigade in Bupyeong, Camp Market provided US logistical support.

 

19. U.S. renews calls on S. Korea to join economic security campaign against China

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · October 14, 2020

This should be something where interests easily align.  I am troubled by the statement in the article.

 

----------------------------

 

A laconic phrase or laconism is a concise or terse statement, especially a blunt and elliptical rejoinder.

It is named after Laconia, the region of Greece including the city of Sparta, whose ancient inhabitants had a reputation for verbal austerity and were famous for their blunt and often pithy remarks.

A great example involves Philip II of Macedon.

After invading southern Greece and receiving the submission of other key city-states, he turned his attention to Sparta and asked menacingly whether he should come as friend or foe. The reply was "Neither."

Losing patience, he sent the message:

You are advised to submit without further delay, for if I bring my army into your land, I will destroy your farms, slay your people, and raze your city.

The Spartan ephors again replied with a single word: "If."

Subsequently, neither Philip nor his son Alexander the Great attempted to capture the city.

Hat tip to Wikipedia (and Facebook)

"It's part of a writer's profession, as it's part of a spy's profession, to prey on the community to which he's attached, to take away information - often in secret - and to translate that into intelligence for his masters, whether it's his readership or his spy masters. And I think that both professions are perhaps rather lonely."

- John le Carre 

 

“Thus it has come about that our theoretical and critical literature, instead of giving plain, straightforward arguments in which the author at least always knows what he is saying and the reader what he is reading, is crammed with jargon, ending at obscure crossroads where the author loses its readers. Sometimes these books are even worse: they are just hollow shells. The author himself no longer knows just what he is thinking and soothes himself with obscure ideas which would not satisfy him if expressed in plain speech.”
- Major General Carl von Clausewitz

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. China furious with global outcry over Xinjiang and Hong Kong

2. The man who speaks softly - and commands a big cyber army

3. Afghans stunned, worried by Trump tweet to bring home U.S. troops early

4. Time to be honest about Japan’s defense deficiency

5. India and U.S. have been too cautious on China, says U.S. official

6. A world of geopolitical opportunity

7. Threat from nuclear weapons and missiles has grown since Trump entered office

8. The nuclearization of American diplomacy

9. China warns Asian countries to be vigilant on U.S strategy

10. National Guard cyber experts working to protect Washington state's election security

11. Dalio says ‘time is on China’s side’ in power struggle with U.S.

12. Low, fast, networked & lethal: future Army airpower

13. China, Cambodia sign landmark FTA, marking stronger ties

14. Irregular warfare with China, Russia: ready or not, it's coming - if not already here

15. Great power competition and the role of America's air commandos

16. US Marines pivot approach to information warfare at commandant’s direction

17. Lorenzana says 2nd stage of PH military upgrade won’t be completed on time

18. Esper’s reforms: an interim report card

19. First survey of West Point cadets' attitudes about civil-military relations raises concerns

20. How hatred came to dominate American politics

21. US Army conducts first-of-its-kind exercise for tactical information warfare unit

22. Ex-Green Beret to be extradited to Japan as Japanese corporate criminals remain at large

23. Covid-19 reinfection casts doubt on virus immunity: study

24. Will the cultural revolution be canceled?

 

1. China furious with global outcry over Xinjiang and Hong Kong

Deutsche Welle · DW · October 8, 2020

If you do not want to be furious, the solution is simple: stop the human rights abuses and likely crimes against humanity (likely in Xinjiang).

 

2. The man who speaks softly - and commands a big cyber army

Wired · Garrett M. Graff · October 13, 2020

A long, fascinating read.

 

3. Afghans stunned, worried by Trump tweet to bring home U.S. troops early

Washington Post · Pamela Constable & Sharif Hassan · October 12, 2020

 

4. Time to be honest about Japan’s defense deficiency

Asia Times · Grant Newsham · October 12, 2020

 

5. India and U.S. have been too cautious on China, says U.S. official

Hindu · Suhasini Haidar · October 12, 2020

 

6. A world of geopolitical opportunity

Wall Street Journal · Walter Russell Mead · October 12, 2020

A positive current assessment with guidance to both Trump and Biden.

 

7. Threat from nuclear weapons and missiles has grown since Trump entered office

Washington Post · Paul Sonne · October 13, 2020

 

8. The nuclearization of American diplomacy

Nation · Michael T. Klare · October 13, 2020

It is a complex world.

 

9. China warns Asian countries to be vigilant on U.S strategy

Reuters · Mei Mei Chu & Liz Lee · October 13, 2020

So, China is taking a page from Sun Tzu: “What is of supreme importance is to attack the enemy's strategy."

 

10. National Guard cyber experts working to protect Washington state's election security

American Military News · Abbie Shull · October 12, 2020

 

11. Dalio says ‘time is on China’s side’ in power struggle with U.S.

Bloomberg · Hema Parmar · October 12, 2020

 

12. Low, fast, networked & lethal: future Army airpower

Breaking Defense · Sydney J. Freedberg, Jr · October 12, 2020

 

13. China, Cambodia sign landmark FTA, marking stronger ties

China Daily · Liu Zhihua · October 12, 2020

 

14. Irregular warfare with China, Russia: ready or not, it's coming - if not already here

Hill · Sean McFate · October 11, 2020

Important op-ed featuring my favorite T.E. Lawrence quote.

 

15. Great power competition and the role of America's air commandos

Sandboxx · Stavros Atlamazoglou · October 6, 2020

 

16. US Marines pivot approach to information warfare at commandant’s direction

Defense News · Mark Pomerleau · October 12, 2020

 

17. Lorenzana says 2nd stage of PH military upgrade won’t be completed on time

Inquirer · Frances Mangosing · October 12, 2020

 

18. Esper’s reforms: an interim report card

Defense One · Mackenzie Eaglen · October 12, 2020

 

19. First survey of West Point cadets' attitudes about civil-military relations raises concerns

Army Times · Davis Winkie · October 12, 2020

This requires a lot of reflection and analysis.

 

20. How hatred came to dominate American politics

Five Thirty Eight · Lee Drutman · October 5, 2020

 

21. US Army conducts first-of-its-kind exercise for tactical information warfare unit

Defense News · Mark Pomerleau · October 12, 2020

 

22. Ex-Green Beret to be extradited to Japan as Japanese corporate criminals remain at large

Connecting Vets · Jack Murphy · October 12, 2020

 

23. Covid-19 reinfection casts doubt on virus immunity: study

Barron's · Patrick Galey · October 12, 2020

Not good.

 

24. Will the cultural revolution be canceled?

City Journal · Joel Kotkin · October 11, 2020

Food for thought.

 

"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary."

- H.L. Mencken

"Naturally, the common people don't want war...but, after all it's the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship...Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."

- Herman Goering at Nuremberg trial in 1946

"Their credulity debased and vitiated the faculties of the mind: they corrupted the evidence of history; and superstition gradually extinguished the hostile light of philosophy and science."

- Edward Gibbon

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. South Korea doesn't have to remain allied with US, ambassador warns

2. The North Korean missile threat [Infographic]

3. Sweden, Denmark to alert UN on shock N.Korea documentary

4. Contradictory message: Kim Jong-Un flexes muscle, extends olive branch

5. U.N. Seoul human rights office meets brother of S. Korean official killed by N.K. soldiers

6. North Korea threw a nuke parade to flaunt these frightening new weapons

7. North Korea’s monstrous new missile is a reminder of Trump’s failure to contain the regime

8. Pyongyang parades its nuclear capabilities

9. Kim Jong-Un called 'better than Trump' after he weeps during speech, apologizes for failure to handle Covid-19

10. Jail for man who supplied luxury items to North Korea

11. Official's killing to be discussed at UN next week

12. BTS honored Korean War sacrifices. Some in China detected an insult.

13. New North Korean tank has features from Russian Armata and US Abrams

14. Did North Korean strongman Kim Jong Un cry?

15. We take a closer look at North Korea's new prototype main battle tank

16. Japan may not attend summit in Korea due to wartime labour dispute - media

17. S.Korea to observe joint U.S.-Japan drills

18. U.S. supports end-of-war declaration, if North is on board: Korean ambassador

19. South Korea reports first triple-digit rise in coronavirus cases in six days: KDCA

20. North Korea’s new big stick

 

1. South Korea doesn't have to remain allied with US, ambassador warns

Washington Examiner · Joel Gehrke · October 12, 2020

Wrong title. But this is to be expected from the press and the pundits who have never lived the alliance or understand the mutual commitment to it by those who serve as members of it.

Yes, these comments are not being well received. Some interpret them as the ROK somehow wavering about the future of the alliance. But the Ambassador’s words are actually very positive about the future of the alliance and his intent is to say that its strength is built on the foundation of the deliberate commitment today and in the future, not simply because we have had an alliance for 70 years.

I expect this will cause some friction within the alliance and there will be pundits on both sides who will misinterpret these comments.

However, I interpret the Ambassadors words as very positive. I think his intention is to show the alliance is strong and it is not built on simply maintaining the status quo or that the alliance is like a ship on "automatic pilot" that goes forward without effort and input by the members of the alliance.  To think the alliance is "automatic" is the insult. To know that it takes deliberate decision to sustain the alliance and make it better demonstrates the highest level of respect for the alliance.

I think the Ambassador is saying the alliance is strong because it is based on a deliberate decision now and every day in the future to sustain the alliance and move it forward based on the interests of the ROK and the US. 

The U.S. State Department offered this statement (with which I strongly concur):

"We are extremely proud of our 70-year-old alliance and all it has been done for the sake of peace and professionalism for the U.S. and ROK, and the Region as a whole. Based on our shared values, our two countries are working together as allies and friends to create that our alliance is available to meet new and emerging markets in the presence, including those countries, including those countries."

I know he agrees with the State Department's statement that our alliance is based on shared values, shared interests, and a shared strategy against the existential threat from the North and, as the 1953 Mutual Defense Treaty says, against threats to both countries in the Asia-Pacific region.

The alliance will be sustained because of the strength of the commitment to the alliance now and in the future and it will not simply rest on the past 70 years and continue forward because it has to be sustained for so long.

Those who would use these comments to harm the alliance or use these comments to advance a harmful political agenda regarding the alliance should be called out as the ones who are both ignorant of the alliance are willing to damage to it.

The bottom line is that I interpret the Ambassador's statement as very positive but unfortunately misinterpreted by those who do not support the alliance.

 

2. The North Korean missile threat [Infographic]

Forbes · Niall McCarthy · October 12, 2020

A handy "scorecard" for those who are keeping track.

 

3. Sweden, Denmark to alert UN on shock N.Korea documentary

Barron's · AFP · October 12, 2020

So far, I have not been able to find a way to access this in the US.

 

4. Contradictory message: Kim Jong-Un flexes muscle, extends olive branch

Yonhap News Agency · Editorial · October 13, 2020

It is important to recognize Kim has an olive branch (a phony one) in one hand and a "treasured sword" in the other.

From a draft op-ed I am submitting today:

Kim extended a phony olive branch to the Moon administration stating, “I also send this warm wish of mine to our dear fellow countrymen in the South, and hope that this health crisis would come to an end as early as possible and the day would come when the North and South take each other's hand again.” This comes on the heals of the brutal murder of a South Korean civil servant in North Korean waters in September. For two years, the South has implemented confidence building measures in accordance with the so-called Comprehensive Military Agreement as part of the 2018 Pyongyang Declaration without any reciprocity from the North. In fact, from the Hanoi Summit in 2019 through July of 2020, the North conducted some 31 missile and rocket tests that pose a direct threat to South Korean and U.S. forces. As demonstrated by the parade and Kim’s own words, the NKPA continues to develop offensive capabilities to be able to attack the South. 

There has been no change to the regime’s long-term goal to dominate the entire peninsula. Although the North’s Constitution has been revised numerous times, Article Two has remained consistent: “The DPRK is a revolutionary state, which has inherited brilliant traditions formed during the glorious revolutionary struggle against the imperialist aggressors, in the struggle to achieve the liberation of the homeland and the freedom and well-being of the people.” This is what makes the relationship zero-sum between the North and South. The North remains committed to completing the revolution and achieving the liberation of the homeland to be ruled by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State. Thus, Kim’s supposed olive branch is not sincere but rather is intended to provide the message that the Moon Administration wants to hear so it will continue to pursue engagement, which the regime can eventually exploit to coerce concessions.

 

5. U.N. Seoul human rights office meets brother of S. Korean official killed by N.K. soldiers

Yonhap News Agency · elly@yna.co.kr · October 12, 2020

A small positive step forward. The Moon administration needs to apologize to the family for allowing the civil servant's reputation to be tarnished by allegations of an attempted defection.

 

6. North Korea threw a nuke parade to flaunt these frightening new weapons

Popular Mechanics · Kyle Mizokami · October 12, 2020

Almost everything shown in the parade was modeled on modern western military equipment, right  down to night vision googles mounted on helmets and knee pads on soldier uniforms.

 

7. North Korea’s monstrous new missile is a reminder of Trump’s failure to contain the regime

Washington Post · Editorial Board · October 12, 2020

An expected op-ed. Criticism for sure. But no one offers a feasible, acceptable, and suitable course of action that would bring success.

Some may argue with the title and say the regime has been contained in that it has not conducted any attacks against the South or in the region.

 

8. Pyongyang parades its nuclear capabilities

Dong-A Ilbo · October 12, 2020

A warning to the Blue House for its apparent rejoicing in Kim Jong-Un's message to the South.

 

9. Kim Jong-Un called ‘better than Trump’ after he weeps during speech, apologizes for failure to handle Covid-19

MEAWW · Pritha Paul · October 12, 2020

Also expected criticism.

 

10. Jail for man who supplied luxury items to North Korea

Straits Times · Shaffiq Alkhatib · October 13, 2020

We need more of this in the international community. Kudos to Singapore.

 

11. Official's killing to be discussed at UN next week

Chosun Ilbo · Roh Suk-jo & An Young · October 13, 2020

Good. Note that Kim's supposed apology was a "non-apology apology."

 

12. BTS honored Korean War sacrifices. Some in China detected an insult.

New York Times · Tiffany May & Amy Chang Chien · October 12, 2020

South Korea versus China in soft power. Perhaps China detected some sharpness in the comments making it sharp power!

But we should remember the Chinese People's Volunteers came to the aid of the aggressor, who attacked the South in a bid to eliminate its freedom. Should the Chinese be honored for that? Or should they get a pass for their complicity in the deaths of what are estimated to be up to 5 million people.

 

13. New North Korean tank has features from Russian Armata and US Abrams

AMN · News Desk · October 12, 2020

As I noted, a lot of the equipment and weapons systems seemed to be knockoffs of modern major power equipment.

 

14. Did North Korean strongman Kim Jong-Un cry?

Vice · Junhyup Kwon · October 12, 2020

Let's not be duped by the ability of Koreans in the North to cry on demand, to include Kim Jong-Un. It is in their DNA. It is excellent political theater to reinforce the message North Korean apologists and appeasers want to hear.

 

15. We take a closer look at North Korea's new prototype main battle tank

Drive · Joseph Trevithick & Tyler Rogoway · October 12, 2020

Again, western and major power knockoffs?

 

16. Japan may not attend summit in Korea due to wartime labour dispute – media

Reuters · Elaine Lies et al. · October 12, 2020

I am not optimistic that we will see any improvements in the political relationship any time soon.

 

17. S.Korea to observe joint U.S.-Japan drills

Chosun Ilbo · Roh Suk-jo · October 12, 2020

An observer? As in one? Sigh....

Excellent comments from Congressman Waltz.

 

18. U.S. supports end-of-war declaration, if North is on board: Korean ambassador

Korea Joong Ang Daily · Shim Kyu-Seok · October 12, 2020

My question remains: how will an end of war declaration ensure the security of the ROK against the existential threat from the North? What effects will be achieved by an end of war declaration? If the North gets on board (which is doubtful), have we assessed how the regime intends to use such a declaration to support its long con and political warfare strategy?

And, of course, who is the US official to whom the Ambassador is referring?

 

19. South Korea reports first triple-digit rise in coronavirus cases in six days: KDCA

Reuters · Hyonhee Shin & Himani Sarkar · October 13, 2020

 

20. North Korea’s new big stick

ASPI · Malcolm Davis · October 12, 2020

Yes, this conclusion is an insult to the Trump Administration, and it seems supportive of Biden. But what it really illustrates is that it is Kim Jong-Un who is executing a long con in support of his political warfare strategy. We need to focus on Kim and not on simply blaming this or any administration. We need to understand and attack Kim's strategies.

 

"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary."

- H.L. Mencken

"Naturally, the common people don't want war...but, after all it's the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship...Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."

- Herman Goering at Nuremberg trial in 1946

 

"Their credulity debased and vitiated the faculties of the mind: they corrupted the evidence of history; and superstition gradually extinguished the hostile light of philosophy and science."

- Edward Gibbon

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Keep an eye on Taiwan

2. Chinese 5G not living up to its hype

3. U.S. war games in Germany as Washington plots withdrawal

4. The case for new global financial order

5. Defund CENTCOM

6. Tulsi Gabbard introduces bills to drop charges against Snowden, Assange, reform Espionage Act

7. Inside the plot to kidnap Gov. Whitmer

8. US Army Europe and US Army Africa to merge as commander pins on fourth star

9. End-strength goal met, with growth in diversity this year, Army says

10. The rise of the CIA and the decline of America’s moral standing (book review)

11. A whirlwind of uncertainty is stirring up extremism

12. It looks like Trump just ended the Afghanistan war via Twitter

13. Transcript: NPR's full interview with Joint Chiefs Of Staff Chairman Mark Milley

14. Wartime spies get their due

15. All wars are culture wars

16. How America collected intelligence in China during World War II

17. Trump’s continuing vandalism of the Voice of America

18. The 1619 chronicles: journalism does better when it writes the first rough draft of history, not the last word on it.

19. A democratic disadvantage: sharp power and regime typology in international relations

20. The Michigan kidnapping plot wasn’t about Trump. It goes deeper than that.

 

1. Keep an eye on Taiwan

Defense One · Michael Schuman · October 11, 2020

 

2. Chinese 5G not living up to its hype

Chosun Ilbo · VOA News · October 12, 2020

But is any 5G system living up to the hype? Is 5G really here? What of the revolutionary changes that were forecasted have taken place?

 

3. U.S. war games in Germany as Washington plots withdrawal

NBC News · Willem Marx · October 11, 2020

Training must continue. It is perishable. It cannot (or should not) be halted while awaiting political decisions.

 

4. The case for new global financial order

National Interest · Sukhayl Niyazov · October 11, 2020

I don't know. I fear that, if the dollar is not the reserve currency, US power will decline precipitously. But I will leave it to the economic experts to assess.

 

5. Defund CENTCOM

War On the Rocks · Justin Logan · October 12, 2020

Quite a critique.

 

6. Tulsi Gabbard introduces bills to drop charges against Snowden, Assange, reform Espionage Act

American Military News · Ryan Morgan · October 8, 2020

I find this incredible. I don't understand how any American could propose such a thing, let alone a US Congressperson.

 

7. Inside the plot to kidnap Gov. Whitmer

CNN · Julia Jones · October 11, 2020

I wonder how many other plots are brewing among anti-government extremists.

 

8. US Army Europe and US Army Africa to merge as commander pins on fourth star

Defense News · Jen Judson · October 8, 2020

Defense News · by Jen Judson · October 8, 2020

 

9. End-strength goal met, with growth in diversity this year, Army says

Army Times · Kyle Rempfer · October 9, 2020

Some good news.

 

10. The rise of the CIA and the decline of America’s moral standing (book review)

Washington Post · Beverly Gage · October 9, 2020

I think the title is an indicator of  the fairly negative review of a negative book. I take some exception to the characterization of Edward Lansdale.

 

11. A Whirlwind of Uncertainty Is Stirring Up Extremism

Defense One · J.M. Berger · October 10, 2020

Focus on tech leaders.

 

12. It looks like Trump just ended the Afghanistan war via Twitter

Task & Purpose · Jeff Schogol · October 11, 2020

An interesting conclusion.

 

13. Transcript: NPR's full interview with Joint Chiefs Of Staff Chairman Mark Milley

NPR · Steve Inskeep · October 11, 2020

It is a sad state of affairs that the Chairman must answer the questions on elections.

 

14. Wartime spies get their due

Spy Talk · Jeff Stein · October 11, 2020

 

15. All wars are culture wars

Bloomberg · Kori Schake · October 10, 2020

I am reminded of this quote: “War embraces much more than politics: it is always an expression of culture, often a determinant of cultural forms, in some societies the culture itself” (John Keegan in A History of Warfare).

 

16. How America collected intelligence in China during World War II

National Interest · Warfare History Network · October 11, 2020

Long read and some interesting history.

 

17. Trump’s continuing vandalism of the Voice of America

Washington Post · Jackson Diehl · October 11, 2020

I know Mr. Pack and his supporters will pan this, especially because it relies on an NPR report and is published in the Washington Post. But it pains me to read this about my beloved VOA and RFA.

 

18. The 1619 chronicles: journalism does better when it writes the first rough draft of history, not the last word on it.

New York Times · Bret Stephens · October 9, 2020

This is a very controversial op-ed. Credit to the NY Times for publishing it.

 

19. A democratic disadvantage: sharp power and regime typology in international relations

Strategy Bridge · James Micciche · October 12, 2020

 

20. The Michigan kidnapping plot wasn’t about Trump. It goes deeper than that.

Slate · Fred Kaplan · October 9, 2020

A sobering conclusion comment from David Kilcullen.

 

"The OSS was 70 years ahead of its time."

- Robert Kim, Author, Project Eagle

"When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic."

- Benjamin Franklin

"The fundamental reason for human rights being trampled in North Korea lies in the 'Dear Leader Absolutism' dictatorship.  There can be no human rights for the people in North Korea where the greatest morality and absolute law is giving one's mind and body to the Dear Leader; and living as a slave who obeys completely and unconditionally the Dear Leader - it is the only life permitted the North Korean People."

- Hwang Jang Yop, 2 DEC 99

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. North Korea's new missile able to target U.S. unveiled to send message to Trump, analysts say

2. ANALYSIS-N.Korea's Kim speaks softly, shows off new military might

3. It's naïve to take Kim Jong-un's 'friendship' talk at face value

4.  New organization cracks down on S. Korean goods on border

5. 'Top-down' nuke diplomacy with N.K. may not continue if Biden wins Nov. election: Ambassador Lee

6. North Korea shows off a gigantic new toy (that may or may not work)

7. Kim Jong-un sheds tears as he delivers rare apology to North Korea over failings

8. North Korea unveils ‘very destabilizing’ ICBM

9. A crocodile’s tears (Kim Jong-un's)

10. Schedule of Moon administration is prioritized over security. (OPCON transition)

11.  Cheong Wa Dae reviews NK leader's speech, says inter-Korean accords should be honored

12. North Korea’s new missile

13. N.K. could test-fire new ICBM depending on U.S. election results: ex-unification minister

14. Kim Jong Un’s ‘monster’ missile meant to overwhelm U.S. defenses

15. S. Korea eases social distancing to lowest level amid coronavirus downward trend

16. Japan vows to boost missile defense after North Korea parade

17. Emergency meeting held in South Korea after North Korea parades new missiles

 

1. North Korea's new missile able to target U.S. unveiled to send message to Trump, analysts say

Washington Times · Guy Taylor · October 12, 2020

My comments below.

 

2. ANALYSIS-N.Korea's Kim speaks softly, shows off new military might

TRF News · Reuters · October 11, 2020

We should look at the entire display of North Korean military capabilities from the ICBM to individual soldier equipment. Of course, they may have only developed this equipment to outfit the parade personnel and it is unlikely all their military units are outfitted with much of the advanced military equipment. But stil,l the regime wants to show us that, despite sanctions, COVID, and natural disasters, it can still produce "advanced" military equipment and hold an impressive parade. And combined with the messages in his speech, he is laying the groundwork for future blackmail diplomacy. One of his objectives may be to try to enter into an arms control negotiation process in which he will negotiate away his new monster ICBM (which has never been tested and may not even be functional) in return for concessions. This is typical North Korea negotiating behavior in which it gets something for nothing. We must not be duped (though we still have to take the monster ICBM seriously especially if it has a MIRV capability as some analysts are assessing).

 

3. It's Naïve to Take Kim Jong-un's 'Friendship' Talk at Face Value

Chosun Ilbo · October 12, 2020

It is wise to be skeptical of Kim Jong-un. 

 

4. New organization cracks down on S. Korean goods on border

Daily NK · Ha Yoon Ah · October 12, 2020

Consider the burning of South Korean goods while Kim Jong-Un is offering a phony olive branch to the South.

I think there is a translation problem with this article. I think they meant to translate it as a new "anti-capitalist group." North Korea is, after all, the Socialist Workers' Paradise.

 

5. 'Top-down' nuke diplomacy with N.K. may not continue if Biden wins Nov. election: Ambassador Lee

Yonhap News Agency · sshluck@yna.co.kr · October 12, 2020

Perhaps it will not continue. And maybe not if President Trump is re-elected as well. But as I have written, the President's unconventional experimental top down pen pal diplomacy has broken taboos and can provide flexibility to future presidents.

 

6. North Korea shows off a gigantic new toy (that may or may not work)

Gizmodo · Alyse Stanley · October 11, 2020

Until we see it tested, we should be skeptical. Of course, testing this would bust President Trump's red line and his handshake agreement with Kim. And we do have to take it seriously, especially if we have assessed that it may have a MIRV capability (which we have also never seen North Korea test). But the North now has  something to "give up" in future negotiations. If the North offers this up, it would be a typical North Korea strategy - to get something for nothing. And as I have noted, it may very well be the regime has listened to the pundits in the US who are calling for arms control negotiations. That would fit nicely into the regime's strategy to become a nuclear power and provide further opportunities to coerce and co-opt the US in terms of concessions and sanctions relief. All part of the long con and the regime's political warfare strategy with Juche characteristics.

 

7. Kim Jong-un sheds tears as he delivers rare apology to North Korea over failings

Guardian · Justin McCurry · October 12, 2020

Please do not be duped by Kim's tears. It is in the DNA of Koreans who live in the North to be able to cry on command. Yes, it is highly unusual for any Kim to apologize or appear to accept responsibility for failure. It has probably never happened. But, more important than the tears, his apology to the Korean people for the hardships was a non-apology just like the one for the brutal murder of the South Korean civil servant last month. If you study his speech, he was blaming sanctions, COVID, and the natural disasters for the impact on the economy and the suffering of the Korean people. So, his apology was really an opportunity to blame outside factors. Do not be duped.

 

8. North Korea unveils ‘very destabilizing’ ICBM

Defense One · Patrick Tucker · October 11, 2020

Sure, we can blame President Trump and all past presidents. But the blame must lie with Kim Jong-Un and his failure to allow substantive working level negotiations. The only way we will see Kim come to the negotiating table is if we lift sanctions. Does anyone think we should lift sanctions and condone all the regime's illicit and abusive behavior? Allow continued nuclear and missile development? Allow global illicit activities? Allow weapons proliferation to the Middle East and Africa? Allow cyberattacks? Allow overseas slave labor of Koreans from the North? Continue the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity upon the Korean people in the North? When you recommend sanctions relief, please include what behavior you wish to condone by North Korea.

 

9. A crocodile’s tears (Kim Jong-un's)

Korea Joong Ang Daily · Editorial · October 11, 2020

The Joongang Ilbo editorial board is rightly skeptical of Kim's tears.

 

10. Schedule of Moon administration is prioritized over security

Dong-A Ilbo · Editorial · October 10, 2020

Security versus politics? One of the important conditions of OPCON transition is a reduction in the North's nuclear threat. I think the Saturday parade illustrated that condition is unlikely to be met.

 

11. Cheong Wa Dae reviews NK leader's speech, says inter-Korean accords should be honored

Yonhap News Agency · Lee Chi-dong · October 11, 2020

We should be frank: the Comprehensive Military Agreement has been one sided, with the South providing all the confidence building measures with no reciprocity from the North. Whale has honored and will continue to honor the agreement, the North has not and never will.

 

12. North Korea’s new missile

Interpreter · Sam Roggeveen · October 12, 2020

An ominous subtitle. The author's 2018 proposal remains a terrible idea. Do this and we will be throwing South Korea under the bus (or the treads of the new tanks the North showed us on Saturday). If we withdraw troops, there will be conflict on the peninsula. And, of course, if we negotiated this settlement, it would be the exact effect the regime was trying to achieve: developing a fake missile to dupe the US.

 

13. N.K. could test-fire new ICBM depending on U.S. election results: ex-unification minister

Yonhap News Agency · julesyi@yna.co.kr · October 12, 2020

It would be quite a welcoming "gift" to whomever wins the election.

 

14. Kim Jong Un’s ‘monster’ missile meant to overwhelm U.S. defenses

Bloomberg · Jon Herskovitz & Jeong-Ho Lee · October 12, 2020

Yes, it is a monster. Of course, Godzilla is not real.

 

15. S. Korea eases social distancing to lowest level amid coronavirus downward trend

Yonhap News Agency · mlee@yna.co.kr · October 11, 2020

Too soon?

 

16. Japan vows to boost missile defense after North Korea parade

AP · Mari Yamaguchi · October 12, 2020

Recent decisions on Aegis ashore may come back to haunt Japan.

 

17. Emergency meeting held in South Korea after North Korea parades new missiles

NBC News · Yuliya Talmazan & Stella Kim · October 11, 2020

I would hope someone at the meeting brought up that the assumptions about North Korean intentions are wrong and that South Korean policy and strategy must be changed. But calling for the honoring of the CMA indicates that there likely will be no change.

 

"The OSS was 70 years ahead of its time."

- Robert Kim, Author, Project Eagle

"When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic."

- Benjamin Franklin

"The fundamental reason for human rights being trampled in North Korea lies in the 'Dear Leader Absolutism' dictatorship.  There can be no human rights for the people in North Korea where the greatest morality and absolute law is giving one's mind and body to the Dear Leader; and living as a slave who obeys completely and unconditionally the Dear Leader - it is the only life permitted the North Korean People."

- Hwang Jang Yop, 2 DEC 99