Small Wars Journal

10/24/2020 News & Commentary - National Security

Sat, 10/24/2020 - 11:35am

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Don’t be blind to China’s rise in a changing world

2.  How to Make a Sharp-edged Quad Work

3. How to deal with free speech on social media

4. The Lies We’re Told about the American Story

5. How Team Trump is fighting China’s ploys to control the UN by Ambassador Kelly Craft

6. US Coast Guard To Tackle China 'Illegal' Fishing In Pacific

7. Uniting the Techno-Democracies: How to Build Digital Cooperation

8. Right-wing extremists ‘hiding in plain sight’ | The Strategist

9. Trump’s historic assault on the civil service was four years in the making

10. The Politicization of the State Department Is Almost Complete

11. China-US relations: Beijing’s Korean war propaganda ‘out of date’, observers say

12. The Bones are back: B-1s return to Guam

13. U.S. to base Coast Guard cutters in western Pacific in response to China

14. A Trump Victory May Push His Defense Secretary Out an Open Door

15. Our Adversaries are Interfering in the 2020 U.S. Election: What Do They Want and How Can We Stop Them?

16. Who’s in the Room? Part II: The Case for Women’s Voices in National Security

17. Iraq War soldier Alwyn Cashe’s long-awaited Medal of Honor delayed in Senate amid Supreme Court fight

 

1. Don’t be blind to China’s rise in a changing world

Financial Times · by Ray Dalio · October 23, 2020

Hmmm... This is the most pro-China, pro-business in China, and most importantly (for the author) pro-investment in China piece I have read in a long time.

 

2. How to Make a Sharp-edged Quad Work

thediplomat.com · by Abhijnan Rej · October 22, 2020

The Quad and Quad Plus could be one of the most important foreign policy legacies of the Trump administration though I do not recall him talking about it very much.  I think this is the work of his national security team who know the critical importance of alliances for the US.  I think we are fortunate that they have been allowed to work on this concept. It is rather paradoxical since the President has only a negative and transactional view of alliances.  If Trump is re-elected, I hope they continue to work on this. And if a Biden administration takes office, I hope it will continue this work.

Now a key point from this article: "The observant reader will notice that so far, I have only referred to the goals for the Quad in abstract, without spelling out “what” kind of behavior needs to be deterred or dissuaded even if we know the “who.” This brings me to the third set of considerations, around the “what,” for the Quad: the need to formulate an effective integrated common strategy for all malign activities that fall short of open, military aggression, ones in the “gray zone.”"

 

3. How to deal with free speech on social media

The Economist – 22 October 2020

We have a lot of thinking to do on this.

Conclusion: "This will be messy, especially in politics. When societies are divided and the boundary between private and political speech is blurred, decisions to intervene are certain to cause controversy. The tech firms may want to flag abuses, including in post-election presidential tweets, but they should resist getting dragged into every debate. Short of incitement to violence, they should not block political speech. Politicians’ flaws are better exposed by noisy argument than enforced silence."

 

4. The Lies We’re Told about the American Story

National Review Online · by Michael D. Capaldi · October 24, 2020

A good essay that will not be appreciated by those who live the cancel culture and favor the revisionist history of the U.S.

De Oppresso Liber.

 

5.  How Team Trump is fighting China’s ploys to control the UN by Ambassador Kelly Craft

New York Post · by Kelly Craft · October 22, 2020

 

6. US Coast Guard To Tackle China 'Illegal' Fishing In Pacific

Barron's · by AFP - Agence France Presse

 

7. Uniting the Techno-Democracies: How to Build Digital Cooperation

Foreign Affairs · by Jared Cohen and Richard Fontaine · October 22, 2020

Like the old adage, "war is too important to be left to the generals, ' the authors note this: "Technology is too important to be left to the technologists."

A powerful conclusion: "Some of the most pressing technological issues facing the world’s democracies now may ultimately rival in importance the economic issues considered by the Bretton Woods delegates. Just as in 1944, when the United States and like-minded countries recognized that they could no longer make economic policy in a vacuum, today they must recognize that the time has passed when they can deal with the profound effects of technology on their own. For too long, national approaches to technological questions have been ad hoc, poorly coordinated, and left to technology experts to sort out. But in today’s competitive global environment, technology is too important to be left to the technologists."

 

8. Right-wing extremists ‘hiding in plain sight’ | The Strategist

aspistrategist.org.au · by Leanne Close · October 22, 2020

A view from Australia.

Key point: "Across Western democracies, racism and xenophobia are becoming normalised as populist right-wing and extreme far-right discourses become more mainstream. This, coupled with an increasing prevalence of conspiracy theories and counter-government narratives, is uniting fringe groups with more established right-wing movements under a common agenda in rallying against government measures."

 

9.  Trump’s historic assault on the civil service was four years in the making

The Washington Post – by Lisa Rein, Josh Dawsey, and Toluse Olorunnipa - October 24, 2020

It deeply pains me to read this excerpt.  I have great respect for US civil servants and I categorically deny the myth of the deep state.

 

10. The Politicization of the State Department Is Almost Complete

The Atlantic · by P. Michael McKinley · October 23, 2020

Ouch. Scathing criticism.

 

11. China-US relations: Beijing’s Korean war propaganda ‘out of date’, observers say

scmp.com – by Minnie Chan

Probably not for the domestic audience in China.

I doubt the CCP agrees with this analysis:

Collin Koh Swee Lean, a research fellow at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies in Singapore, said Beijing’s efforts to use the Korean war anniversary to promote an anti-American sentiment at home would achieve little besides further damaging China-US relations.

“The invocation of a Korean war analogy could serve to reinforce Trump’s “Red China” narrative and help to perpetuate a cold war mentality that Beijing has been telling Washington to abandon,” he said.

Ma said that the anti-US propaganda used at the time of the Korean war was intended to inspire and motivate young Chinese on the battlefield. But such tactics were no longer appropriate.

 

12. The Bones are back: B-1s return to Guam

airforcetimes.com · by Stephen Losey · October 23, 2020

Long live the Bone.  We need them.

 

13. U.S. to base Coast Guard cutters in western Pacific in response to China

Reuters · by David Brunnstrom · October 23, 2020

I had no idea this was happening.  But our Coast Guard is stretched very thin like our Navy.

 

14. A Trump Victory May Push His Defense Secretary Out an Open Door

The New York Times · by Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt · October 23, 2020

I wonder if the Mark Twain analogy can be applied here.

 

15. Our Adversaries are Interfering in the 2020 U.S. Election: What Do They Want and How Can We Stop Them?

georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org · by Brianna Lifshitz · October 23, 2020

 

16. Who’s in the Room? Part II: The Case for Women’s Voices in National Security

georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org · by Gabriela Doyle · October 21, 2020

Conclusion: "Up until now, this two-part series has focused on getting diverse voices in the room where decisions are made to cultivate American diversity as a national security asset. What the author has now realized, however, is that being in the room is not enough. The Princeton study and anecdotal experiences of the women writing and interviewed for this piece agree: “having a seat at the table does not mean having a voice.” In the 21st century, the United States needs to capitalize on what women bring to the table and who they are as a key national security priority."

If we discount a woman's voice or deny them the opportunity to contribute we are damaging our national security.  it is as simple as that.  Women are just as competent in national security as men.  Go ahead and argue that point. You cannot disprove that statement. 

 

17. Iraq War soldier Alwyn Cashe’s long-awaited Medal of Honor delayed in Senate amid Supreme Court fight

The Washington Post – by Dan Lamothe - October 23, 2020

There are always second and third order effects.

He deserves this medal not because he would be the first African American to receive it in the modern era of the post 9-11.  He deserves this medal because he is an American hero who gave his last full measure for his fellow soldiers.  The only other examples of going above and beyond the call of duty are among all previous Medal of Honor recipients.  He deserves this honor.

 

“The Russian view of modern warfare is based on the idea that the main battles-ace is the mind.” -

 National Defence Academy of Latvia

 

"It is books that are the key to the wide world; if you can’t do anything else, read all that you can.”

- Jane Hamilton

 

“Engage people with what they expect; it is that they are able to discern and confirms their projections.  It settles them into predictable patterns of response, occupying their minds while you wait for the extraordinary moment - that which they cannot anticipate”

- Sun Tzu (found on the interwebs but not in any translation I have - but it reads like something Sun Tzu would have written)

10/24/2020 News & Commentary - Korea

Sat, 10/24/2020 - 11:17am

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Diplomatic rift between S. Korea and U.S. deepens

2. Gov't Insists Slain Official 'Wanted to Defect' to N.Korea

3. S. Korea to continue flu vaccination program as no direct links with deaths found

4. Chinese foreign minister could visit S. Korea timed with Japan tour

5.  Shoddy recovery upsets typhoon-hit N. Koreans: RFA

6. Police Breaks THAAD Blockade

7. The Korean marijuana story

8. Kim Jong-un's Wife Hasn't Been Seen in Public Since January

 

1. Diplomatic rift between S. Korea and U.S. deepens

donga.com – 24 October 2020

This is really troubling.  I do not think we in the US are really aware of the tenuousness of the alliance right now.    OPCON transition could be the catalyst for a real break in the alliance.  Obviously it is combined with the SMA stalemate, the continuing contentious THAAD issue, training access for US troops, the veiled threat of US troop reduction/withdrawals, the push to the Quad Plus and the perception of the ROK being forced to choose sides, the South's engagement policy toward the north and the perception the Moon administration wants to lift sanctions to appease the regime.  And then there are the "slights" mentioned in the OpEd below from the SECSTATE and SECDEF (both perhaps blown out of proportion and not slights from the US perspective). We are at the point of the proverbial perfect storm.

 

2. Gov't Insists Slain Official 'Wanted to Defect' to N.Korea

english.chosun.com – 23 October 2020

Even if this were true and the government is not simply taking the north's explanation as evidence, the ROK government should not be perpetuating this out of respect for the family and it does not do any good for the Moon administration or the Korean people.

 

3. S. Korea to continue flu vaccination program as no direct links with deaths found

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · October 24, 2020

We all must get our flu shots (if you have not already).

 

4. Chinese foreign minister could visit S. Korea timed with Japan tour

donga.com – by Gi-Jae Han – 24 October 2020

This should not be blown out of proportion.  South Korea must engage with China.

 

5. Shoddy recovery upsets typhoon-hit N. Koreans: RFA

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · October 23, 2020

This is the nature of the Kim family regime.  Kim's policy priorities and decisions ensure the Korean people in the north continue to suffer.

 

6. Police Breaks THAAD Blockade

english.chosun.com – 23 October 2020

This is another point of alliance friction.  Again, as I have mentioned my Korean friends tell me these are professional leftist anti-American protests who are very well organized and control the narrative in South Korea.  It is difficult for the Moon administration to deal with them.  But US soldiers are living in working in a very austere environment (despite them being located on a former Lotte golf course) because they cannot be properly resupplied. 

 

7. The Korean marijuana story

The Korea Times – by David Tizzard - October 24, 2020

Something for the weekend.  

I recall being struck by the story here in in Max Hastings' book.  I remember thinking how we did not learn about the use of marijuana when we went through SERE school.  It could have made the experience much more "enjoyable."  Our POWs in north Korea knew the meaning of "small victories."

Excerpt: In something that sounds like a Cheech and Chong fairytale, westerners living in Korea during the 1960s talk of how it was simply a case of reaching out a hand and picking buds from the plants as they travelled the countryside. In his book on the Korean War, historian Max Hastings recounts a humorous tale of North Korea soldiers being confused by their American and British prisoners of war's constant laughing and singing while supposedly under duress in the camps: they did not realize the captured troops had found large stashes of wacky-backy and were smoking it frequently.

 

8. Kim Jong-un's Wife Hasn't Been Seen in Public Since January

tmz.com – 23 October 2020

The importance of this piece is that the Kim family regime has really made it to the big leagues.  Kim would be happy because now the regime is being tracked and followed by that crucial media outlet of TMZ! (okay my apologies for the sarcasm)

 

“The Russian view of modern warfare is based on the idea that the main battles-ace is the mind.” -

 National Defence Academy of Latvia

 

"It is books that are the key to the wide world; if you can’t do anything else, read all that you can.”

- Jane Hamilton

 

“Engage people with what they expect; it is that they are able to discern and confirms their projections.  It settles them into predictable patterns of response, occupying their minds while you wait for the extraordinary moment - that which they cannot anticipate”

- Sun Tzu (found on the interwebs but not in any translation I have - but it reads like something Sun Tzu would have written)

10/23/2020 News & Commentary - National Security

Fri, 10/23/2020 - 12:14pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. U.S. foreign policy never recovered from the War on Terror

2. Amid political tensions, NATO remains a vital alliance

3. The Trump Administration’s high-stakes gambit to curtail rocket attacks in Iraq

4. SecDef details plan to boost alliances to counter China and Russia

5. The 5 faces Of Chinese espionage: the world’s first ‘digital authoritarian state’

6. Putin: Russia-China military alliance can’t be ruled out

7. Battle Force 2045 could work - if defense leaders show some discipline

8. US and allies prioritize Indonesia as potential counterweight to China

9. Our toxic civil-military relations

10. Exclusive: 'dumb mistake' exposed Iranian hand behind fake Proud Boys U.S. election emails - sources

11. Our secret Taliban air force - inside the clandestine U.S. campaign to help our longtime enemy defeat ISIS

12. South Korea deaths 'not linked' to flu vaccination drive

13. G7 powers must confront the Chinese threat together

14. China, and Xi, commemorate the Korean War as a victory over America

15. In Xi Jinping’s China, nationalism takes a dark turn

16. ‘Stunning’ executive order would politicize civil service

17. Preserve the Jones Act

18. ISD launches new report on information operations

19. In echo of Cold War, the West’s ‘Five Eyes’ spy alliance focuses on China

20. Iran’s goal is to undermine democracy. Americans shouldn’t take the bait.

21. Five key takeaways from Xi Jinping’s Korean war anniversary speech

22. Empire of emperors: what is China, and why you should worry about it

23. Why the US was so fast to blame Iran for voter intimidation emails in Florida

24. ‘I’m here for the money’ - my life as a Blackwater mercenary

 

1. U.S. foreign policy never recovered from the War on Terror

Foreign Affairs · Matthew Duss · October 22, 2020

 

2. Amid political tensions, NATO remains a vital alliance

FDD · Maj Scott D. Adamson · October 22, 2020

Our national power rests on the foundation of our alliance structure.

 

3. The Trump Administration’s high-stakes gambit to curtail rocket attacks in Iraq

FDD · John Hannah & Behnam Ben Taleblu · October 22, 2020

 

4. SecDef details plan to boost alliances to counter China and Russia

Military.com · Richard Sisk · October 22, 2020

No matter who wins the election, we must continue to continue to develop our alliances. I don't think we can emphasize this statement from the SECDEF enough.

 

5. The 5 faces of Chinese espionage: the world’s first ‘digital authoritarian state’

Breaking Defense · Nicholas Eftimiades · October 22, 2020

A useful tutorial. The study referenced is available on Amazon here.

I just ordered it. The reviews are excellent. Here is one:

This scholarly work is a superb compilation and analysis of the public record concerning the Chinese Communist Party’s espionage activities against the rest of the world and the United States in particular. Most important it goes well beyond the “what” has happened and provides insight into the how and why of this activity. The reader should be aware that a noted expert in the field has provided a synthesized review of all the available information. It is a glimpse at what is happening around the world. There are more facts understood by those with appropriate security access and much more is known only to the senior levels of the CCP and its operatives.

-- Richard Haver, former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Intelligence, former DCI Deputy for Community Affairs, and Chief of Staff, National Intelligence Council.

 

6. Putin: Russia-China military alliance can’t be ruled out

Real Clear Defense · Vladimir Isachenkov · October 23, 2020

I am sure this will be panned by some. But whatever happens, I agree with our SECDEF: our adversaries will never be able to match our alliance structure.

 

7. Battle Force 2045 could work – if defense leaders show some discipline

Defense News · Timothy Walton & Bryan Clark · October 22, 2020

The 72 page Hudson report referenced can be downloaded here.

 

8. US and allies prioritize Indonesia as potential counterweight to China

Washington Examiner · Joel Gehrke · October 22, 2020

How does Indonesia feel about this? It just recently rejected a US request to base some ISR assets.

 

9. Our toxic civil-military relations

Washington Examiner · Mackubin Owens · October 23, 2020

Trust.

 

10. Exclusive: 'dumb mistake' exposed Iranian hand behind fake Proud Boys U.S. election emails - sources

Reuters · Christopher Bing & Jack Stubbs · October 22, 2020

“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake” - Napoleon

I hope the Iranians make more mistakes.

 

11. Our secret Taliban air force - inside the clandestine U.S. campaign to help our longtime enemy defeat ISIS

Washington Post · Wesley Morgan · October 22, 2020

The enemy of my enemy...

 

12. South Korea deaths ‘not linked’ to flu vaccination drive

BBC · October 23, 2020

Hopefully this is some good news (except for the 32 deaths)…?

 

13. G7 powers must confront the Chinese threat together

FDD · Craig Singleton · October 21, 2020

 

14. China, and Xi, commemorate the Korean War as a victory over America

Washington Post · Gerry Shih · October 23, 2020

This propaganda is believed by many in China and North Korea.

 

15. In Xi Jinping’s China, nationalism takes a dark turn

Wall Street Journal · Chao Deng & Liza Lin · October 22, 2020

 

16. ‘Stunning’ executive order would politicize civil service

Defense One · Erich Wagner · October 22, 2020

On the one hand, some will think this will create a true political deep state. On the other hand, to improve personnel management others will argue you need better hiring and firing authority and "at will" employment provides that. But I think this will be quite controversial.

 

17. Preserve the Jones Act

Defense One · Mike Stevens · October 22, 2020

The question is how to sustain (and grow) our merchant shipping capabilities. Merchant shipping is key to our economic instrument of power and our national security.

 

18. ISD launches new report on information operations

Georgetown University · Kelly McFarland · October 21, 2020

The 76 page report  can be downloaded here.

 

19. In echo of Cold War, the West’s ‘Five Eyes’ spy alliance focuses on China

Stars & Stripes · Peter Martin, Kitty Donaldson, & Kait Bolongaro · October 21, 2020

I would think "Five Eyes" was long focused on China.

 

20. Iran’s goal is to undermine democracy. Americans shouldn’t take the bait.

Washington Post · Ariane M. Tabatabai · October 22, 2020

I think the revision, rogue, revolutionary powers and violent extremist organizations all seek to undermine democracy and free and open societies around the world.

I agree with my good friend, Dr. Tabatabai, that it is not helpful and counterproductive to try to discern which candidate any of our adversaries seem to want to "help." I do not think they really care - they are not interested in who wins but in delegitimizing our democratic processes and weakening and dividing our societies. The key is getting our response right, not arguing over who Iran supports.

 

21. Five key takeaways from Xi Jinping’s Korean war anniversary speech

South China Morning Post · Kristin Huang · October 23, 2020

 

22. Empire of emperors: what is China, and why you should worry about it

Tablet · David Goldman · October 23, 2020

I am reminded of this excerpt from Kai Straittmatter's book, We Have Been Harmonized: Life in China’s Surveillance State:

"Xi Jingping has a message for the world: China is retaking its position at the head of the world’s nations. And the Party media cheer: Make way, West! Make way, capitalism and democracy!  Here comes zhongguo fang’an, the ‘Chinese solution.’"

 

23. Why the US was so fast to blame Iran for voter intimidation emails in Florida

Cyber Scoop · Shannon Vavra · October 22, 2020

 

24. ‘I’m here for the money’ - My life as a Blackwater mercenary

Task & Purpose · Morgan Lerette · October 21, 2020

 

“You are free to choose, but you are not free from the consequence of your choice.”

- A Universal Paradox

"The unselfish effort to bring cheer to others will be the beginning of a happier life for ourselves."

- Helen Keller

  "The President must be greater than anyone else, but not better than anyone else. We subject him and his family to close and constant scrutiny and denounce them for things that we ourselves do every day. A Presidential slip of the tongue, a slight error in judgment - social, political, or ethical - can raise a storm of protest. We give the President more work than a man can do, more responsibility than a man should take, more pressure than a man can bear. We abuse him often and rarely praise him. We wear him out, use him up, eat him up. And with all this, Americans have a love for the President that goes beyond loyalty or party nationality; he is ours, and we exercise the right to destroy him."

- John Steinbeck

10/23/2020 News & Commentary - Korea

Fri, 10/23/2020 - 11:33am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. U.S. finds it impractical to work on verification for OPCON transfer

2. A new framework for assessing sanctions is vital for any new US strategy on North Korea

3. North Korea poised to test next US president with growing nuclear missile threat

4. U.S. will face stronger, more provocative North Korea in 2021

5. Congress holds the key to outpacing North Korea's nuclear capabilities

6. North Korea is lonelier than ever

7. S. Korean, Chinese defense chiefs discuss security situation, vow to boost cooperation

8. South Korea’s failed crisis diplomacy with North Korea

9. South Korea skipped U.N. North Korea human rights meeting, report says

10. N. Korea's pursuit of money makes it 'unique' state actor of cyber attacks: U.S. official

11. Declaration of Korean War's end 'obvious' part of North Korean denuclearization process: Pompeo

12. North Korea rejects COVID-19 aid from South

13. Kim Jong-un’s wife disappears from public view amid 'fears for her health'

14. Pompeo stresses Washington’s consistency on Pyongyang’s denuclearization

15. Trump, Biden trade barbs over North Korea’s nukes

16. The curious design features of North Korean hotels

17. USFK: 7 service members from US test positive for COVID-19

18. After 116 years, I went to the residence of an officer in the U.S. military base in Yongsan.

19. The Japan-Korea dispute over the 1965 agreement

20. China says honours its obligations over North Korea sanctions

21. North Korea imports more equipment to monitor communications along border

22. S. Korea to keep seeking dialogue with N. Korea over slain official: minister

23. Little-known fact: South Korea fought with the U.S. as allies in Vietnam

 

1. U.S. finds it impractical to work on verification for OPCON transfer

Dong-A Ilbo · October 23, 2020

This really has the potential to undermine the trust in the alliance. This would seem to confirm the conspiracy theories prevalent among some Koreans that the US never had any intention of completing the OPCON transition and wants to retain a perceived dominant position in the alliance to somehow "control" the ROK military (which it does not now and cannot ever do).

 

2. A new framework for Assessing Sanctions is Vital for Any New US Strategy on North Korea

38 North · Markus V. Garlauskas · October 22, 2020

A very useful process put forth by the former NIO for Korea - the NSC, State (Korea team), Treasury, the IC, FBI/Justice, Congress. I bet if the NSC and State/Korea team employed this they would add the 10 subcategories and keep refining this into a very effective tool to assess our sanctions policies.

 

3. North Korea poised to test next US president with growing nuclear missile threat

Stars & Stripes · Kim Gamel · October 22, 2020

My comments, among others, are below.

 

4. U.S. will face stronger, more provocative North Korea in 2021

Heritage Foundation · Bruce Klingner · October 22, 2020

Important analysis from Bruce Klingner.

 

5. Congress holds the key to outpacing North Korea's nuclear capabilities

Hill · Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Howard N. Thompson · October 21, 2020

A sober assessment here.

 

6. North Korea is lonelier than ever

Economist · October 24, 2020

The key point is all suffering in North Korea is a result of Kim Jong-un's policy decisions and priorities as illustrated by the priorities outlined in the conclusion.

 

7. S. Korean, Chinese defense chiefs discuss security situation, vow to boost cooperation

Korea Herald · Yonhap · October 21, 2020

I wonder which meeting was better: the ROK/-US SCM or this ROK-China telephone talks? While some will be critical of this meeting, I think it is important. Minister Suh is correct to ask “for Beijing to play a ‘constructive role’ for peace and stability on the peninsula.”

 

8. South Korea’s failed crisis diplomacy with North Korea

National Interest · Dylan Stent · October 22, 2020

A scathing criticism.

 

9. South Korea skipped U.N. North Korea human rights meeting, report says

UPI · Elizabeth Shim · October 21, 2020

Not a good sign. We need to present an allied front on human rights. We cannot neglect human rights.  Ever.

 

10. N. Korea's pursuit of money makes it 'unique' state actor of cyber attacks: U.S. official

Yonhap News Agency · Byun Duk-kun · October 23, 2020

We must defend against the regime's all-purpose sword as we well as its treasured sword. The regime is certainly aggressively employing its cyber capabilities. Note Chinese complicity as well.

 

11. Declaration of Korean War’s end ‘obvious’ part of North Korean denuclearization process: Pompeo

Korea Times · Yonhap · October 22, 2020

This is one of the few articles that seem to get it right: the North and the South are the belligerents and they must end the war. Perhaps it is because Secretary Pompeo describes it correctly in his comments.

 

12. North Korea rejects COVID-19 aid from South

Korea Times · Park Han-sol · October 22, 2020

Kim will bite the hand that can feed him.

 

13. Kim Jong-un’s wife disappears from public view amid 'fears for her health'

Mirror · Chris Kitching · October 22, 2020

We need some gossip. Where is Ri Sol-Ju?

 

14. Pompeo stresses Washington’s consistency on Pyongyang’s denuclearization

Dong-A Ilbo · lightee@donga.com · October 23, 2020

I think we have been consistent and sincere - if Kim Jong-Un makes the right strategic decision, the North can have a brighter future. The problem is that both the strategic decision and the brighter future are perceived as existential threats to the Kim family regime. Kim believes he must have nuclear weapons to survive and that a brighter future means economic development, which means access to information for the Korean people in the North - a direct threat to the legitimacy of the regime.

 

15. Trump, Biden trade barbs over North Korea’s nukes

Defense News · Joe Gould · October 22, 2020

Not offered from a partisan perspective but only to provide both candidates' remarks on North Korea.

 

16. The curious design features of North Korean hotels

Economist · October 23, 2020

Kim Jong-un has reportedly ordered Pyongyang hotels to be remodeled? I wonder why? And, of course, that is another indicator of his "bankrupt" policy decisions.

 

17. USFK: 7 service members from US test positive for COVID-19

Military Times · Diana Stancy Correll · October 22, 2020

Note General Abrams is in quarantine following his trip to the US for the Security Consultative Meeting.

 

18. After 116 years, I went to the residence of an officer in the U.S. military base in Yongsan.

Hankook Ilbo · Yang Seung-jun · October 23, 2020

This is a Google translation of a Hankook Ilbo article. We lived in the quarters from 1996-2000. I do not ever recall the address as "California, USA," though it was, of course, a "little America" like most US military installations overseas. We knew we lived in Yongsan-Gu.

Two points: I thought the agreement left the Dragon Hill Lodge in place, but the article talks about it moving. I am also confused about the comments about the construction of the new US embassy on what used to be Camp Coiner on the northern part of Yongsan garrison. On my last visit to Korea in January I thought I observed the embassy construction work was underway.

 

19. The Japan-Korea dispute over the 1965 agreement

Diplomat · Jinyul Ju · October 23, 2020

I would add to this article’s conclusion that both Moon and Suga need to agree to place national security and national prosperity as the first two priorities while they manage the historic issue.

 

20. China says honours its obligations over North Korea sanctions

Reuters · Gabriel Crossley & John Stonestreet · October 23, 2020

Sure it does... China doth protest too much. We should throw the BS flag on this.

 

21. North Korea imports more equipment to monitor communications along border

Daily NK · Jang Seul Gi · October 23, 2020

To improve and modernize its draconian populations and resources control measures.  I wonder how it is getting German made equipment (reportedly)…

 

22. S. Korea to keep seeking dialogue with N. Korea over slain official: minister

Yonhap News Agency · kokobj@yna.co.kr · October 23, 2020

The regime must be held accountable. This brutal murder alone should prevent South Korea from providing concessions to the regime.

 

23. Little-known fact: South Korea fought with the U.S. as allies in Vietnam

National Interest · Warfare History Network · October 23, 2020

The South Koreans were tough and feared fighters in Vietnam.

 

“You are free to choose, but you are not free from the consequence of your choice.”

- A Universal Paradox

"The unselfish effort to bring cheer to others will be the beginning of a happier life for ourselves."

- Helen Keller

  "The President must be greater than anyone else, but not better than anyone else. We subject him and his family to close and constant scrutiny and denounce them for things that we ourselves do every day. A Presidential slip of the tongue, a slight error in judgment - social, political, or ethical - can raise a storm of protest. We give the President more work than a man can do, more responsibility than a man should take, more pressure than a man can bear. We abuse him often and rarely praise him. We wear him out, use him up, eat him up. And with all this, Americans have a love for the President that goes beyond loyalty or party nationality; he is ours, and we exercise the right to destroy him."

- John Steinbeck

10/22/2020 News & Commentary - National Security

Thu, 10/22/2020 - 11:02am

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Does Palantir See Too Much?

2. Top US general in Afghanistan says he's holding back to give Taliban peace deal a chance

3.  The Mystery of the Immaculate Concussion

4. Pentagon's New Plan to Fight China and Russia in the Gray Zone

5. James Stavridis on global order amid potential election chaos

6. Defense Policy Board and China

7. China's influence operations offer glimpse into information warfare's future

8. New American military base in Pacific would show how US-China cold war is heating up fast

9. Canada's Parliament Labels China's Abuses in Xinjiang 'Genocide,' Urges Government Action

10. Cheap drones versus expensive tanks: a battlefield game-changer?

11. The Next Ninety days and China's Coming Invasion of Taiwan: 3 November 2020 as possible D-Day

12. Despite Military Improvements, Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Still 'Highly Risky' Says Former Pentagon Official

13. Department of Defense Releases 2020 Military Intelligence Program Budget

14. The Post-American Order

15. How two ex-Green Berets were lured into a disastrous failed coup in Venezuela

16. Is Lockheed Building the Air Force's Secret Fighter?

17. Why Social Media Is So Good at Polarizing Us

18. Iran trying to meddle in U.S. election, Russia has obtained American voter info, national security officials say

19. Strategic Assessment 2020: Into a New Era of Great Power Competition

20. Is China Preparing for War in the Taiwan Strait?

21. US approves $1.8bn weapons sale to Taiwan

22. 'Maximum Pressure Brought Down the Soviet Union' and Other Lies We Tell Ourselves

23. Strategic Upheaval, Overhyped, or Something in Between? Forecasting the Relative Impacts of Cyber and Space Technologies

24. Resistance and Resilience in Asia - Political Warfare of Revisionist and Rogue Powers

 

1. Does Palantir See Too Much?

The New York Times · by Michael Steinberger - Oct. 21, 2020

Yes????

 

2. Top US general in Afghanistan says he's holding back to give Taliban peace deal a chance

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · October 21, 2020

 

3. The Mystery of the Immaculate Concussion

GQ · by Julia Ioffe

More on the targeting of our intelligence officers.

 

4. Pentagon's New Plan to Fight China and Russia in the Gray Zone

Bloomberg · by Hal Brands · October 21, 2020

This is the key point.  "Yet the rivalries with Russia and China involve far more than the possibility of large-scale war. They also involve struggling in the shadows - shifting the status quo without resorting to open violence, or seeking to undermine rivals through subtle, ambiguous strategies."  This is why we need an American Way of Political Warfare. https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PE300/PE304/RAND_PE304.pdf

 

5. James Stavridis on global order amid potential election chaos

The Economist · by James Stavridis

An important message.  Do not attempt to explicit US domestic challenges. Conclusion: "The message to any would-be geopolitical destabiliser is that America will respond vigorously. Do not mistake domestic squabbling for an unwillingness to stand firm internationally, from anywhere to anywhere. As the great pageantry of clash and cacophony that typifies American democracy takes place again this year, no one should underestimate the country's preparedness and resolve. As American citizens focus on the election, American institutions remain focused on maintaining global order."

 

6. Defense Policy Board and China

washingtontimes.com · by Bill Gertz

Bill Gertz assesses the members of the Defense Policy Board.

 

7. China's influence operations offer glimpse into information warfare's future

NBC News · by Olivia Solon and Ken Dilanian · October 21, 2020

We need to pay attention.  This is the competition: Closed societies versus open societies.  Authoritarian regimes versus democratic nations.  Those who want to control their people and others, execute rule by law, deny human rights, and ensure the economy and industry supports the politics of the leaders to ensure the party remains in power versus those who value freedom and individual liberty, liberal democracy, free market economy, rule of law, and human rights.

 

8. New American military base in Pacific would show how US-China cold war is heating up fast

rt.com

From Russia's RT news service.

 

9. Canada's Parliament Labels China's Abuses in Xinjiang 'Genocide,' Urges Government Action

rfa.org

 

10. Cheap drones versus expensive tanks: a battlefield game-changer?

aspistrategist.org.au · by Malcolm Davis · October 21, 2020

Everyone must be studying the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh in great detail and with great concern.

 

 

11. The Next Ninety days and China's Coming Invasion of Taiwan: 3 November 2020 as possible D-Day

Small Wars Journal – by William M. Darley

 

12. Despite Military Improvements, Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Still 'Highly Risky' Says Former Pentagon Official

news.usni.org · by John Grady · October 20, 2020

Key points from Randall Shriver:

While "the PLA [People's Liberation Army] is getting better" at amphibious warfare, moving "tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands" of troops "across 80 nautical miles of water" and then successfully fighting an active resistance in mountainous terrain is not likely, Schriver said.

China "prefers to win without fighting," he added. That does not mean Xi is backing down on eventual reunification, a goal he wants to reach by the centennial of the founding of the Chinese communist party in 2021.

 

13. Department of Defense Releases 2020 Military Intelligence Program Budget

defense.gov – 21 October 2020

Spoiler alert: $23.1 billion.  But of course, no further details, just the top line.

 

14. The Post-American Order

Foreign Affairs · by Kori Schake · October 21, 2020

 

15. How two ex-Green Berets were lured into a disastrous failed coup in Venezuela

Business Insider · by Graham Flanagan

 

16. Is Lockheed Building the Air Force's Secret Fighter?

defenseone.com · by Marcus Weisgerber

It is a good thing we still have the Skunk Works.

 

17. Why Social Media Is So Good at Polarizing Us

WSJ · by Christopher Mims – 19 October 2020

It sure is.  I see this every day on the social media pages of the interwebs.  But here is the author's solution (can we break our addiction?): "Based on my own reporting, I'd call that a ringing endorsement for avoiding social media as much as possible - especially just before and after an election."

 

18. Iran trying to meddle in U.S. election, Russia has obtained American voter info, national security officials say

CNBC · by Dan Mangan, Kevin Breuninger · October 21, 2020

KEY POINTS
Iran and Russia have both obtained information about American voters' registrations and are trying to influence the public about the upcoming U.S. presidential election, national security officials said.
Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe said that Iran has been sending "spoofed emails designed to intimidate voters, incite unrest and damage President" Donald Trump.

 

19.  Strategic Assessment 2020: Into a New Era of Great Power Competition

The 400 page tome can be downloaded at this link: https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/Books/SA2020/Strategic-Assessment-2020.pdf?ver=-NTckVdG56-CfFYJ73PTgg%3d%3d

 

20. Is China Preparing for War in the Taiwan Strait?

The National Interest · by J. Michael Cole · October 21, 2020

But it is uncertainty that should be worrying us.  

 

21. US approves $1.8bn weapons sale to Taiwan

BBC 

 

22. 'Maximum Pressure Brought Down the Soviet Union' and Other Lies We Tell Ourselves

warontherocks.com · by Philip H. Gordon · October 22, 2020

Conclusion:  "The Cold War analogy with the Soviet Union does, of course, demonstrate how a dangerous adversary can be contained, and it provides hope that in the long run, even hostile regimes can evolve in a relatively positive direction. But the Soviet Union's positive evolution, whose timing could not be controlled nor predicted, took place not as a result of a U.S. policy of total confrontation, let alone military intervention, but at the end of a long, patient, process of deterrence, diplomacy, arms control, soft power, and alliances. As they formulate policy today, current leaders would do well to keep this actual history in mind - rather than the dangerous caricature embraced by Trump and his supporters."

 

23. Strategic Upheaval, Overhyped, or Something in Between? Forecasting the Relative Impacts of Cyber and Space Technologies

mwi.usma.edu · by Marina Favaro · October 21, 2020

 

24. Resistance and Resilience in Asia - Political Warfare of Revisionist and Rogue Powers

Small Wars Journal

My thoughts.

 

"Reasoning will never make a man correct an ill opinion which by reasoning he never acquired."

- Jonathan Swift

 

"The sign of an intelligent people is their ability to control emotions by the application of reason."

- Marya Mannes

 

"Technology is so much fun but we can drown in our technology. The fog of information can drive out knowledge."

- Daniel J. Boorstin