Small Wars Journal

Confronting Iran: Securing Iraq's Border (Updated)

Tue, 11/27/2007 - 5:09pm
Confronting Iran

Securing Iraq's Border:

An Irregular Warfare Concept

By Brigadier General David L. Grange (U.S. Army ret.) and Scott Swanson, MSI

Special to Small Wars Journal

Contributions by Major General John Singlaub (U.S. Army ret.), Billy Waugh (U.S. Army Special Forces ret.), Rowdy Yeats (U.S. Army Special Forces ret.) and Chuck de Caro (U.S. Army Special Forces ret.)

Excerpt

Background

Iran is intentionally employing disruptive, anti-US activities that complicate the peace process in the Iraqi Freedom Theater of operation. Iran's actions kill US personnel, drain resources, and compromise stability in the region. While these actions -- particularly cross-border activities into Iraq -- are a significant menace, international attention to Iran's destabilizing efforts has largely been overshadowed by concerns about its uranium enrichment program, which has garnered the priority for debate, diplomacy, and sanctions. The US could, however, confront Iran's hostile actions in Iraq by addressing their illegal border movements with a regional special operations strategy that can work in conjunction with the nuclear proliferation conflict. Findings from some historical successes and challenges in Special Operations Forces (SOF) efforts during previous conflicts offer possible solutions for the Iraq/Iran border today that can be expanded to other border issues with Iraq/Turkey, Afghanistan/Pakistan, and Iraq/Syria. These border issues are related to Iran's regional influence capabilities and offer an excellent platform for the US to deter some key Iranian endeavors.

Situation

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Forces and their irregular sub-elements, such as al Quds (Jerusalem) Force, enact disruptive activities against western interests and sectarian factions. They coordinate extremist group, insurgent, and resistance actions on behalf of the Iranian regime agenda through a chain of command up to the Ayatollah. The IRGC Quds Force trains foreign personnel in Iran and abroad to organize and participate in terrorism and subversion. The Quds force is allegedly the pre-eminent force behind Iran's involvement in Iraq. Conventional US military or political action in opposition to the Quds, however, has been ineffective against their cloaked operations; autonomous, decentralized, operational networks; and safe havens in Iran.

The US must halt Iran's meddling in Middle Eastern peace initiatives to ensure regional stability and the security of US forces operating in Iraq and Afghanistan, but there are serious obstacles to operations countering Iran. Any attempt by the US military to engage the Quds across Iran's border would be viewed internationally as a violation of Iran's sovereignty and an attack against Iran. Sanctions and political efforts against Iran have proven to be ineffective. The US must also act swiftly to reduce the mounting pressures of area allies like Turkey from exploiting the Iraqi situation while American hands are tied in the regional commitment.

The proposed solution presented in this report involves an augmentation of SOF along the Iraqi border to thwart illicit arms traffic, infiltration activity, and insurgency support. This solution for the Iraq/Iran border can be applied elsewhere in the region. SOF units have historically provided border security and can again successfully control border traffic. Enhanced capabilities in recon, direct action, information operations, unconventional warfare, and local commerce exchanges—to include animal and drug trade—would further bolster SOF efficacy. More aggressive US "small-war" initiatives can destroy, disrupt, interdict, and deter the elusive Iranian alliances and complex networks supporting Iraq's civil clashes through their recruitment, motivation, procurement, sanctuary, and funds. It is through these support groups that the Quds and other Iranian elements create the ability to operate against the US. SOF is the ideal human element defeat mechanism for this conflict. They are uniquely experienced and attuned to the delicate interaction and trust building required between communities of vying sects, tribes, clans, factions, and families. Some seasoned Special Operations community members compare the Iran/Iraq situation to cross-border challenges posed by North Vietnam's forays into Laos and answered by US Special Observation Group (SOG) operational missions to thwart such movements. The SOG mission in Vietnam and its bordering countries, like the mission of SOF teams operating in Iraq and Afghanistan, was to: interact with locals to enable human factor resistance activities, gather intelligence, hinder enemy infiltration through air strikes, conduct ambushes, mine roads and trails, sabotage trucks and equipment, and capture prisoners. U.S. tactical air, fixed wing and rotary wing gun-ships were authorized to exploit opportunity targets within the full depth of the authorized Area of Operations. By locating the enemy before they had an opportunity to strike, SOG teams were also able to avoid future attacks against U.S. forces. Similar SOG projects could be enhanced immediately in Iraq and Afghanistan to confront Iranian cross-border activities.

Continue reading and download Confronting Iran - Securing Iraq's Border: An Irregular Warfare Concept

Report Update:

Confronting Iran: U.S. Options

Convened by: American Foreign Policy Council and McCormick Tribune Foundation

Cantigny Park

Wheaton, Illinois

August 22-23, 2007

This report represents the final product of the second working group on Iran organized jointly by the American Foreign Policy Council and the McCormick Tribune Foundation. The first such working group, convened in August 2006, examined the scope of Iran's global influence and potential U.S. responses to it. Confronting Iran: U.S. Options is an extension and amplification of that work - one designed to provide policymakers with concrete, actionable suggestions about how to address the growing challenge to U.S. foreign policy and American interests posed by the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Intelligence Collection and Sharing (Updated)

Tue, 11/27/2007 - 1:37pm
By Captain Tim Hsia, U.S. Army

"Who controls the past controls the future" - George Orwell, 1984

Years from now after the Iraq and Afghanistan wars have ended; historians will pore over the operations and tactics of the U.S. Army during both campaigns. They will likely applaud the all-volunteer force and the courage of the individual soldier; just as likely, however, they will criticize the lack of information sharing and management between the militarily and civilian departments of the U.S. government. Specifically, they will note the military's poor record in information management, accessibility of intelligence gathered, and the inability to apply years of accumulated intelligence to current battlefield operations. A way to patch the current intelligence gap within the U.S. government would be to adopt an information collection program that accumulates data similar to major internet stock market trackers. Market trackers absorb information continuously, rigorously track trends, and enable traders to formulate decisions based off the latest news combined with historical data. The ability of market trackers to store and quickly recall historical data should be mimicked by the U.S. government so that commanders and diplomats possess relevant records that enable them to make decisions which take into account the economic, historical, cultural, political, anthropological, and environmental aspects of the region they are operating within.

When a unit assumes battle space within Iraq the first thing that a commander receives from his higher headquarters is a plethora of maps detailing major avenues of approach, religious divides, key figures, demographics, key infrastructure, etc. However, much of the intelligence is outdated or watered down, and the source of this data is often unattributed. The source of this intelligence is necessary in order to winnow the chaff from the wheat. The intelligence received from higher headquarters can come from multiple sources, which oftentimes can be suspect and unverifiable. For example, is this intelligence derived from an Iraqi Army soldier, Iraqi policeman, neighborhood councils, street vendor, coalition signal assets, or from the previous military units who have operated within the current Area of Operations? Additionally, this initial trove of intelligence oftentimes provides just the basics and does not delve into more important issues that commanders need to know, such as the amount of money U.S. forces have spent developing the local infrastructure, the number of discontinued projects and reasons for their discontinuance, the quality of local leaders, and the attitudes of those leaders toward the U.S. military.

Counterinsurgencies are not won by more soldiers, cutting edge technology, or more lethal weapon systems. Rather insurgents are defeated when the pacifying force fully understands the local citizenry, when the people identify with the pacifying force, and when there is an abundance of timely information which allows the pacifying force to apply their intelligence to operations that result in overturning and disrupting insurgent activity. Despite the great advances in the U.S. military's ability to leverage technology to gain intelligence, it has been less successful in storing and synchronizing the historical data compiled during the past several years in its campaigns in the Middle East. When a unit redeploys to the states they usually dump all of their electronic files to their counterparts in no systematic or coherent manner. This is the ideal situation, though if they are on a more limited timeline they might just pass off the most essential information. With units being continually shifted around Iraq with little or no notice to respond to increased violence in different areas, it has been almost impossible for units to properly pass off their intelligence to the next battle space owner or more importantly to future units that will operate in their sector. At best the problem a commander faces is an abundance of information that is improperly cataloged. Oftentimes however it is the worse case scenario in which commanders and diplomats encounter, a difficult situation where they have little to no information regarding a region or locale.

A way to remedy the chaotic state of intelligence management is to create a central intelligence collection platform that will allow any unit to upload operation summaries, economic analysis, tribal networks, environmental analysis, and graphical overlays into a central site that future commanders can access when they assume an assigned battle space. Currently all military units in Iraq and Afghanistan have access to a worldwide SIPR (secure internet protocol router) network which allows them to access, view, and transmit secret information. Expanding this network to encompass a more centralized program of data sharing would not require any additional hardware. A fusion of geography and intelligence within a centralized network can ensure that commanders arrive at any location with the necessary intelligence derived from years of work by previous agencies and military units that have already provided a framework for understanding the enemy and the people in his assigned area. Commanders could then be spared the countless man hours recollecting data that has already been captured thru blood, sweat, and tears. A solution to the current intelligence blackhole would be to collect, store, and sift this data into a "geointel" site organized in a manner replicating stock market data.

Stocks are traded and bought based off intelligence. Any individual trader can access a plethora of information from open sources: basic charts showing a company's past performance, insightful analysis of the company from several analysts, company key leadership, income streams and expenditures, blogs by other traders, and future projected earnings. Stocks are heavily tracked on a daily basis and without current information traders can quickly squander significant sums. Additionally, traders with insider information can profit spectacularly by making bets that a certain company will move forward on a certain course of action. The stock market mirrors combat and counterinsurgency operations primarily because intelligence is the driving factor in both realms. Without proper intelligence, commanders are likely to make decisions that do not accurately match the historical patterns and events of the local area. By accessing a geointel site they can quickly sift thru actions made by previous commanders and assess the effectiveness of certain actions. Moreover, they can then verify key leaders in local neighborhoods, determine how effective previous operations were in the long run, and apply lessons learned from past operations. Ultimately leaders on the ground can plan more effective orders that better mass effects that are not simply kinetic but instead produce an end result that can marginalize insurgents from the base population.

A geointel database should include all agencies of the U.S. government and also extend to coalition partners. Internal buffers can be placed within the site so that only cleared individuals and organizations can access certain intelligence products. The end state would be to encompass each city in the world from South America, Asia, and the Middle East. Each city in the geointel database would comprise of an abundance of historical data consisting of analysis, logistical, intelligence products, and operational summaries from all branches of the military, the State Department, EPA, CIA, and NSA. Moreover, the geointel database would incorporate cutting open source intelligence products produced by news agencies, RAND, and other think tanks. By combining products from different branches within the government it would ensure that policy makers from different agencies would have a complete portrait of their region and thus prevent decisions based off of data comprised solely from their agency. Moreover, it would ensure that vital and incisive reports would be shared across the spectrum of agencies rather than being lost in a filing cabinet.

This fusion of intelligence would not have to be centrally managed and each commander or diplomat could individually assign and weigh different parameters and factors internally within his staff when deciding amongst several courses of action. Intelligence could be pushed down to the lowest level which would then facilitate bottom-up refinement as each new unit that was involved in a certain locale could update the existing data to include their latest experiences. The battlefield commander, diplomat, or SF ODA team leader could then make informed military, foreign affairs, or political decisions that produce more effective results because the data retrieved from the geointel site would provide them with the latest ground truth supplemented with historic data.

The geointel database should not simply be a dumping area of intelligence products. Although the site should be simple it should stress coherence and ease of information extraction. Each geographic area of the world from city to district would be assigned a distinct alpha numeric code number. When a certain region is accessed, information could be compartmentalized into different categories: terrain, key figures, economic history, political history, recent events, and linkages between the terrain with the surrounding area. The site would identify individuals who are leading experts in the area and summarize their work as it applies to the region. The structure of the site should provide ease of accessibility while also compartmentalizing information so that only certain areas can be accessed by individuals depending upon their level of clearance. There would need to be a thorough security vetting process to prohibit individuals from being able to achieve sensitive information outside of their region, scope, and responsibility. Reports posted would need to be heavily scrutinized, and readers could apply ratings to authors and articles thus differentiating between those reports and analysts deemed credible and reliable as opposed to red herrings. An additional safeguard would be to have superiors and agencies to proof and screen all intelligence products posted by their subordinates so that faulty and inaccurate reporting could be stunted before other organizations implemented inaccurate information. Moreover, authorship of each article would be apparent to the user if operational security permitted. Thus, readers could then view the analyst's oeuvre, credentials, and security levels and also allow the reader to directly contact the author as to their assumptions and inquire about related issues pertaining to an intelligence product.

The primary difference between the geointel database and market information is the level of security necessary in order to prevent compromising security. When market data is incorrect, traders lose vast financial sums. Likewise, when intelligence data is compromised or incorrect, policy decisions can err and lead to disastrous results which we have witnessed in the past several years. Nonetheless, unlike market information which is open sourced and shared, access to this database would have to be carefully safeguarded as keeping all of our national intelligence and operational information in one distinct site could lead to major lapses when certain irresponsible individuals have access to the information. The geointel program would require periodical updates to its structure in order to streamline existing data, facilitate ease of information accessibility, and incorporate new storage and search technologies.

It should be noted that as of late the U.S. government has made great gains in catching up to the corporate world in terms of information collection and sharing. Programs such as A-Space and Intellipedia have taken root and offer leaders a quick way to access and share information. Despite these advances, Intellepedia and A-Space are insufficient and ill suited for terrain-based information collection. Intellipedia offers a great way to supplement the shortcomings of a geointel database because its form is ideal in terms of building personal histories or narratives. However, its design prohibits information to be structured in a manner which could fuse different sources of intelligence. For example, Intellepedia's narrative form prohibits overlays, statistics, and random information that is difficult to categorize to combine itself within its database as opposed to a simple market tracker like Yahoo Finance. Ultimately what is needed is a geointel database which would be much larger and more unified. This database would combine even the most mundane and minutiae of information thus allowing the leader on the ground to parse and pick through past products that are relevant to his current task and mission.

Decades from now it will be historians who will decide and judge how effective U.S. operations were in this war. In the interim we need to rethink how we capture our history so that we do not ignore the immediate past and fail to properly take these events into account when deciding operations in the here and now. Understanding the Malaysian or Vietnamese counterinsurgency does us little good when we fail to even capture or understand events a year ago in the province we are currently operating within.

U.S. Army Captain Tim Hsia is currently serving in Iraq with the 2nd Stryker Calvary Regiment.

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Links

Examining Intelligence Activity in Counterinsurgency Units - Kent's Imperative

Intelligence in Counterinsurgency - Abu Muqawama

Great Minds and All That - Haft of the Spear

Intelligence Relational Database? - The Captain's Journal

All Intelligence is Local - The Ghost of Patrick Henry

Sanchez Delivers Democratic Party Weekly Radio Address (Updated)

Tue, 11/27/2007 - 12:17pm

Lieutenant General Ricardo S. Sanchez, U.S. Army (retired) served as the commander of coalition forces in Iraq (CJTF 7 / MNF-I) from June 2003 to June 2004. He delivered the weekly Democratic radio address this morning. We begin with the transcript of Sanchez's address and follow with some background and what we term a "quick-look" reaction.

Transcript

"Good morning, this is Lieutenant General Ricardo S. Sanchez, U.S. Army, retired.

"I speak to you today, not as a representative of the Democratic Party, but as a retired military officer who is a former commander of the Multi-National Force Iraq. In that capacity, I saw firsthand the consequences of the Administration's failure to devise a strategy for victory in Iraq that employed, in a coordinated manner, the political, economic, diplomatic, and military power of the United States. That failure continues today. At its base is the mistaken belief, despite years of evidence to the contrary, that victory can be achieved through the application of military power alone.

"Our Army and Marine Corps will execute as directed, perform magnificently, and never complain; that is the ethic of our warriors and that is what America expects of them. They will not disappoint us.

"The keys to securing the future of Iraq are aggressive regional diplomacy, political reconciliation, and economic hope. Yet, as our current commanders in Iraq have recently noted, the improvements in security produced by the courage and blood of our troops have not been matched by a willingness on the part of Iraqi leaders to make the hard choices necessary to bring peace to their country. There is no evidence that the Iraqis will choose to do so in the near future or that we have an ability to force that result. America lost that ability upon the transfer of sovereignty back in June of 2004.

"Under the Administration's recently announced plan, U.S. force levels in Iraq in July 2008 will be at about the same level they were in November 2006, when the American people demanded a change in direction in our Iraq policy.

"Our Army and Marine Corps are struggling with changing deployment schedules that are disrupting combat readiness training and straining the patience and daily lives of military families. It will take the Army at least a decade to repair the damage done to its full spectrum readiness, which is at its lowest level since the Vietnam War. In the meantime, the ability of our military to fully execute our national security strategy will be called into doubt, producing what is, in my judgment, unacceptable strategic risk.

"Although we cannot withdraw precipitously from Iraq, we must move rapidly to minimize our force presence. Shifting the primary mission of our troops away from combat will lead to a smaller U.S. military presence, and a greater obligation on the part of the Iraqis to take the lead in solving their country's problems. Having fewer American troops in Iraq will also allow us to devote more resources to refit our ground forces to respond to different contingencies in other parts of the world. However, for as long as we have troops in Iraq, the American people must insist that our deploying men and women are properly trained and properly equipped for the missions they will be asked to perform.

"The funding bill passed by the House of Representatives last week, with a bipartisan vote, makes the proper preparation of our deploying troops a priority and requires the type of shift in their mission that will allow their numbers to be reduced substantially. Furthermore, the bill puts America on the path to regaining our moral authority by requiring all government employees to abide by the Army Field Manual on interrogations, which is in compliance with the Geneva Conventions. America must accept nothing less.

"It is well past time to adopt a new approach in Iraq that will improve chances to produce stability in the Middle East. I urge our political leaders to put aside partisan considerations and unite to lessen the burden our troops and their families have been under for nearly five years now. Strengthening America's security is a burden that must be shared by all Americans.

"America must mobilize our diplomatic, political, and economic power to achieve the reconciliation necessary to roll back DeBaathification and to advance the political progress in Iraq. Anything less is a dereliction of duty.

"This is retired Lieutenant General Ricardo S. Sanchez, and thank you for listening."

Background

Sanchez held the top military position in Iraq, June 2003 -- June 2004, during what many call the most critical period of the war - the year after the fall of Sadaam Hussein's regime and the time the insurgency took root and began attacks on military and civilian targets. Sanchez was the senior officer in Iraq when the abuse of prisoners occurred at the Abu Ghraib prison.

Counterinsurgency blog Abu Muqawama sums up Sanchez's Iraq tour quite nicely in And General Custer will Give the Response to the State of the Union.

Fairly or unfairly, Gen. Ricardo Sanchez will always be remembered as America's incompetent field commander in Iraq -- the lowly three-star thrown into what should have been a four-star position who reacted too slowly to the growing insurgency in the crucial twelve months between the summers of 2003 and 2004.

It was well-known that Sanchez had a disastrous relationship with the civilian proconsul, Paul Bremer, and also that he never won his fourth star largely because of the Abu Ghraib scandal -- surely America's crowning moment in the short history of its empire.

Anyway, some of you revisionists may disagree with the yoke that's been hung around Sanchez's neck, but like it or not, his name is synonymous with failure.

Sanchez holds his association with Abu Ghraib responsible for his non-selection to four-star as reported by CBS News.

Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez, who served a tumultuous year as commander of all U.S. forces in Iraq, retired from the Army on Wednesday, calling his career a casualty of the Abu Ghraib prison scandal. He said for a story in The Monitor in McAllen, Texas, "that's the key reason, the sole reason, I was forced to retire. I was essentially not offered another position in either a three-star or four-star command." He had been a candidate to become the next commander of U.S. Southern Command. But he was passed over after the Abu Ghraib prisoner abuse scandal exploded into an international controversy. Sanchez has not been accused of any misconduct but has been criticized by some for not doing more to avoid mistreatment of Iraqi prisoners.

Sanchez's discontent surfaced again during an address at a Military Reporters and Editors luncheon on 12 October 2007. After lambasting the press coverage he received while in Iraq he launched into criticizing past and current U.S. efforts in that country.

After more than four years of fighting, America continues its desperate struggle in Iraq without any concerted effort to devise a strategy that will achieve "victory" in that war torn country or in the greater conflict against extremism. From a catastrophically flawed, unrealistically optimistic war plan to the administration's latest "surge" strategy, this administration has failed to employ and synchronize its political, economic and military power. The latest "revised strategy" is a desperate attempt by an administration that has not accepted the political and economic realities of this war and they have definitely not communicated that reality to the American people. An even worse and more disturbing assessment is that America can not achieve the political consensus necessary to devise a grand strategy that will synchronize and commit our national power to achieve victory in Iraq...

Since 2003, the politics of war have been characterized by partisanship as the republican and democratic parties struggled for power in Washington. National efforts to date have been corrupted by partisan politics that have prevented us from devising effective, executable, supportable solutions. At times, these partisan struggles have led to political decisions that endangered the lives of our sons and daughters on the battlefield. The unmistakable message was that political power had greater priority than our national security objectives. Overcoming this strategic failure is the first step toward achieving victory in Iraq - without bipartisan cooperation we are doomed to fail. There is nothing going on today in Washington that would give us hope...

The SWJ will leave it to our readers to decide if General Sanchez's decision to deliver today's Democratic radio address was made out of a personal grudge against an administration he believes unfairly judged his record as commander of CJTF 7 / MNF-I. Note that he dropped all reference to what he described as "unscrupulous reporting that was solely focused on supporting your [the press] agenda and preconceived notions of what our military had done" at the Military Reporters and Editors luncheon. While any remarks critical of news media would be inappropriate for the radio address, it is interesting that while critical of a press he accuses of misrepresenting military operations in Iraq he appears to share many of those very same criticisms when they are directed at anyone else but him.

SWJ Quick-look Reaction

While we agree that Operation Iraqi Freedom Phase IV (post-combat operations) planning and execution were a fiasco, Sanchez's statement on his "firsthand account" implies that somehow he was a blameless bystander and not the one entrusted with day-to-day operations during the critical year following regime change in Iraq. Unless there was some backdoor dialogue occurring that we are not privy too, it appears Sanchez did not have a problem with the U.S. strategy at that time. Moreover, as the senior commander he had the authority to take measures that could have lessened the impact of a failed or non-existent strategy had he so desired. Although critical resources such as sufficient manpower and unity of command / effort with the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) were lacking, had Sanchez recognized the nature of the emerging threat (insurgency) and planned and implemented a theater-wide counterinsurgency campaign with the resources at hand, we may have avoided some of the difficulties later encountered. This is but one example of what might have been done by Sanchez with some basic situational awareness and a desire to make a difference. More on the situation on the ground at this time by Washington Post reporter Tom Ricks.

The more you looked at it, in certain areas, in different areas, [there were] guys that had certain patterns of success. It tended to be commanders who had the intelligence and the courage to recognize that the U.S. military had not prepared them for the job and who could think independently and critically about the situation.

So up north, Gen. [David] Petraeus with 101st Airborne, out west Gen. [James] Mattis, later in that year in Iraq, Baghdad, Gen. [Peter] Chiarelli. Some colonels also said, "Everything the U.S. military has given me hasn't prepared me for this job." They start operating differently, and I think that's actually when the U.S. military starts doing better.

Gen. Casey goes out to implore Sanchez, and he says, "Let me pull in some counterinsurgency experts." They've kind of been disregarded and ignored up to this point. "Have them tell me what we're doing here." They come in and give him a report that says, "There are nine basic hallmarks of failure in this sort of war, and you guys are squarely meeting eight of them. You're not controlling the border. You're not focusing on the population. You are focusing on large-size operations. You are not treating your prisoners well." These are all lessons, again and again, the military has learned. Why are these being ignored?

In August 2004, for the first time, the United States military formally has a counterinsurgency plan. It's not until August 2004 where Casey actually has a plan and signs it. There was never a plan the whole time that Bremer and Sanchez were there for how the U.S. military was to operate. So really, you need to get Bremer and Sanchez out of there, it seems, to even have a strategy, let alone an effective strategy is to have a strategy.

Concerning his remarks on utilizing all instruments of national power, Sanchez is correct. The CPA, responsible for the non-military elements of that power, and its Chief Executive L. Paul Bremer, were a disaster -- inexperienced and political ideologues in critical jobs, disbanding the Iraqi Army, "de-Ba'athification" and inadequate financial controls come to mind here. This was all exacerbated by the hate-hate relationship between Sanchez and Bremer as described by Washington Post reporter Rajiv Chandrasekaran.

Bremer and Gen. Sanchez hated each other. They barely talked. Their interactions were stiff, awkward, and that sort of filtered all the way down.

That relationship, for which Sanchez bears one half responsibility, affected military-civilian relationships at all levels and doomed any chance of unity of effort from the get-go.

What Sanchez fails to acknowledge is that things are different now. In all operations, especially those requiring an interagency approach, unity of command while desired is usually absent -- the best we can hope for is unity of effort. For maybe the first time in Iraq, we have two leaders, General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker who are operating from the same sheet of music. The close cooperation they exhibit is a classic example of one of the most important fundamentals of successful counterinsurgency (COIN) operations. A more "boots on the ground" example is the interagency cooperation in the Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs).

Concerning Sanchez's statement that a failure to devise a strategy for victory in Iraq that employed, in a coordinated manner, the political, economic, diplomatic, and military power of the United States is continuing today -- we take great exception.

While late in coming, the U.S. now has a proper strategy in place, a COIN strategy that is population-centric unlike earlier enemy-centric strategies that yielded little or no results. Former senior MNF-I COIN adviser Dr. David Kilcullen describes this strategy in his SWJ post Don't Confuse the "Surge" with the Strategy.

What matters here is not the size of forces (though the strategy will not work without a certain minimum force size), but rather their tasks. The key element of the plan, as outlined in the President's speech, is to concentrate security forces within Baghdad, to secure the local people where they live. Troops will operate in small, local groups closely partnered with Iraqi military and police units, with each unit permanently assigned to an area and working its "beat".

This is different from early strategies which were enemy-centric (focusing on killing insurgents), or more recent approaches that relied on training and supporting Iraqi forces and expected them to secure the population.

The new strategy reflects counterinsurgency best practice as demonstrated over dozens of campaigns in the last several decades: enemy-centric approaches that focus on the enemy, assuming that killing insurgents is the key task, rarely succeed. Population-centric approaches, that center on protecting local people and gaining their support, succeed more often.

While the jury is still out on the ultimate success of this new strategy it has had a significant impact in reversing the previous negative downward spiral of the security situation in Iraq, has provided at least a minimal sense of "normalcy" to Iraqis and, most importantly, provided the Iraqi government a window of opportunity to seek a national reconciliation.

Sanchez notes, and is correct, that so far there is no evidence that there is movement towards political reconciliation at the national government level. That said there is much going on at the local level as the SWJ noted in an earlier post - Last Call: An Opportunity is a Terrible Thing to Waste.

The SWJ has sat in on PRT roundtables and discussions and corresponded with other non-military personnel working issues that are not directly related to security. If we interpreted what we heard correctly, another trend appears to be taking root -- one of political reconciliation at the local level. This is significant (though it has not received the attention it deserves in the MSM) and in the cyclic relationship between political and military initiatives it contributes to increased security which in turn contributes to even further political gains. Still, this is at the local (provincial / city / tribal) level and given several years to play-out could very well force the hand of national political reconciliation.

The SWJ also noted that the excerpted opinion above might not work out as described. Still, if we subscribe to Sanchez's recommendation that we "move rapidly to minimize our force presence" we all but cede any chances of any type of reconciliation -- local -- national -- political or otherwise.

Dr. Adam Cobb addresses what is at stake here in his SWJ post Iraq: A False Choice.

The real choice before the American people is much starker than whether to act on General Petraeus' advice to Congress. Bottom-line: we have to accept the current situation and be realistic about fixing it or we cut our losses and get out...

Those who hope for US failure in Iraq know that they win when they do not lose. The deciding factor therefore is time, something America's enemies inside Iraq have in abundance. Time provides the space in which the low flame of insurgency can continue flickering against both US will, and the increasingly dislocated politics of Iraq.

However, it is to misunderstand the war to look to General Petraeus to buy America more time. He should be congratulated for his role in developing the new counterinsurgency doctrine and successfully implementing it on the ground. In counterinsurgencies, political stability follows reconstruction and reconstruction follows basic security. The problem is that General Petraeus is starting a long way behind the curve. A true soldier-scholar, he has made real inroads against the multiple insurgencies in Iraq. Security is improving in some provinces laying the foundation for reconstruction and political stability...

The real choice before the American people is much starker than whether to act on General Petraeus' advice to Congress. Bottom-line: we have to accept the current situation and be realistic about fixing it or we cut our losses and get out...

Perhaps the greatest irony is that the longer the US commits to staying the more likely it is to succeed. Anything short of a multi decade commitment is incrementalism that will change nothing...

Our bottom-line: General Sanchez should spare General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker the second guessing and Monday-morning quarterbacking he took exception to in regards to his tenure at CJTF 7 / MNF-I.

Update 1: Max Boot weighs in over at Commentary's Contentions blog with Sanchez's Chutzpah.

... The address was, as you might expect, a case study in chutzpah. Sanchez began: "I saw firsthand the consequences of the Administration's failure to devise a strategy for victory in Iraq that employed, in a coordinated manner, the political, economic, diplomatic, and military power of the United States." The criticism is fair enough, but there is a disturbing lack of a mea culpa given that Sanchez, as the senior general on the ground, shared fully in the failures of Bush and Rumsfeld and other higher-ups.

But what makes this far more disturbing than the usual attempt to deflect blame is that Sanchez didn't acknowledge that anything has changed. "That failure continues today," he went on. He makes no attempt to recognize the stunning successes scored by U.S. troops in recent months under the leadership of General David Petraeus and Lieutenant General Ray Odierno. Instead, Sanchez repeats the same old bromides about how "the keys to securing the future of Iraq" aren't military action but "aggressive regional diplomacy, political reconciliation, and economic hope"—the very same thinking that underlies the failed strategy of the past four years, including the year that Sanchez presided over U.S. operations...

Update 2: Victor Davis Hanson weighs in over at National Review's The Corner blog with When and Why Mice Roar.

... there is dismal pattern: a mediocre functionary keeps quiet about the mess around him, muddles through, senses that things aren't going right, finds himself on the losing end of political infighting, is forced out or quits, seethes that his genius wasn't recognized, takes no responsibility for his own failures, worries he might be scape-goated, and at last senses that either a New York publisher or the anti-war Left, or both, will be —to offer him cash or notoriety - but only if he serves their needs by trashing his former colleagues in a manner he never would while on the job.

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Blog Links

Duck Season, Rabbit Season - Abu Muqawama

Schizophrenic War Take 2 - Argghhh!!!

Dems: Getting Smarter? - Abu Muqawama

Dems, Stay Away from Sanchez - Danger Room (Wired)

Good Advice - World Wide Standard (Weekly Standard)

The Democrats' Saturday Radio Address Confuses Me - Say Anything

A Response to the Sanchez "Response" - PrairiePundit

Sanchez and the Democrats - QandO

News Links

The Failures of Lt. Gen. Sanchez - Jack Kelly, Real Clear Politics

Political Odd Pair: Sanchez and Democrats - Jonathan Weisman, Washington Post

As Democrats See Iraq Gains, a Shift in Tone - Patrick Healy, New York Times

Former US Commander Criticizes Bush on Iraq - Scott Stearns, Voice of America

Former Iraq Commander Backs Democrats on Pullout - Josh White, Washington Post

Retired US Iraq Commander Speaks Out for Democrats - Randall Mikkelsen, Reuters

Bush Extends Thanks to Troops Overseas - Associated Press

General Who Led U.S. Forces in Iraq During Detainee Scandal Hails Democrats Withdrawal Plan - Roxana Tiron, The HIll

Discuss at Small Wars Council

Sanchez Delivers Democratic Party Weekly Radio Address - SWJ's Discussion Board

Recommended Reading

Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq - Thomas Ricks

Cobra II: The Inside Story of the Invasion and Occupation of Iraq - Michael Gordon and Bernard Trainor

Imperial Life in the Emerald City: Inside Iraq's Green Zone - Rajiv Chandrasekaran

Counterinsurgency -- US Army Field Manual 3-24 / Marine Corps Warfighting Publication 33.3.5

US Sets New Political Goals for Iraq

Mon, 11/26/2007 - 4:04am
Reports and commentary over the last several months have indicated that signs (benchmarks) of Iraqi national political reconciliation would include movement on legislative initiatives such as the oil framework law, revenue sharing, and de-Baathification reform. Yesterday the New York Times reported that military success of late has outpaced Iraqi political gains resulting in the U.S. administration lowering its expectations of political settlement and instead focusing on more achievable near-term goals.

Steven Lee Meyers and Alissa Rubin - U.S. Scales Back Political Goals for Iraqi Unity.

... administration officials say they are focusing their immediate efforts on several more limited but achievable goals in the hope of convincing Iraqis, foreign governments and Americans that progress is being made toward the political breakthroughs that the military campaign of the past 10 months was supposed to promote.

The short-term American targets include passage of a $48 billion Iraqi budget, something the Iraqis say they are on their way to doing anyway; renewing the United Nations mandate that authorizes an American presence in the country, which the Iraqis have done repeatedly before; and passing legislation to allow thousands of Baath Party members from Saddam Hussein's era to rejoin the government. A senior Bush administration official described that goal as largely symbolic since rehirings have been quietly taking place already.

... administration officials have not abandoned their larger goals and emphasize the importance of reaching them eventually. They say that even modest steps, taken soon, could set the stage for more progress, in the same manner that this year's troop "surge" opened the way, unexpectedly, for drawing Sunni tribesmen to the American side.

Voice of America reported that Iraq's parliament began discussing a draft law Sunday that would ease job restrictions on former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath party. But a political faction loyal to radical Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr jeered and raised objections that halted the presentation of the bill. It is the first time this year that Iraq's parliament has debated a major bill that Washington hopes will promote reconciliation among Shi'ites, Sunnis and Kurds. The proposed law would make it easier for former Baathists, many of them Sunnis, to apply for jobs in the Iraqi government.

Zaid Sabah and Sudarsan Raghavan have more at the Washington Post.

Marine Corps Center for Irregular Warfare

Sat, 11/24/2007 - 4:16am
In an earlier post we linked to a Fredericksburg Free Lance Star interview with Colonel Dan Kelly, Director of the new Marine Corps Center for Irregular Warfare. At that time we could not locate a web page for the CIW -- this morning we did. From the index page:

Mission

The Center for Irregular Warfare (CIW) is the central Marine Corps agency for identifying, coordinating, and implementing irregular warfare capability development initiatives across all elements of DOTMLPF in order to increase, improve, and enhance Marine Corps capabilities and capacities to conduct operations across the spectrum of war against irregular threats.

Intent

USMC CIW improves IW and related capabilities across the entire operational spectrum with particular emphasis on the irregular operational challenges by researching best practices, supporting doctrinal development, providing subject matter expertise to leaders and organizations, and by coordinating and supporting improvement and integration of IW tenets into training and education programs and curricula. CIW conducts outreach to other military and civilian entities with a shared interest in irregular warfare and non-kinetic effects operations.

Be sure to check out the IW 101 slide presentation. Other material includes the CIW Charter, the IW Joint Operating Concept and the QDR Roadmap. It appears the CIW will also begin producing a monthly newsletter in the near future.

Black Friday SWJ Odds and Ends

Fri, 11/23/2007 - 7:57am
Dr. Marcus Griffin has a long and thoughtful post on the American Anthropological Association Executive Board's Statement on the Human Terrain System Project. See AAA Executive Board Decision at his From an Anthropological Perspective blog.

Griffin is a cultural anthropologist, who is working with the U.S. Army as part of the Human Terrain System in Iraq. He is presently taking a year's leave of absence from Christopher Newport University in Newport News, Virginia, where he has been professor of anthropology and sociology since the fall of 2000

He opens.

The AAA did not systematically study the HTS project but determined that they should disapprove of it anyway? Their statement is "based on information in the public record" which means not much because HTS has barely started and the public record (internet?) is full of uninformed notions of what the US military is doing in Iraq and Afghanistan and is crippled by paranoia that we engage in clandestine work as if we are living a spy novel. If anyone looks at various posts of mine, this is hardly the case...

Read it all

On Lebanon, Andrew Exum and Stephen McInerney provide background and analysis on Lebanon's future and U.S. policy towards that country in their New York Times commentary Beirut is Not Tehran.

A couple of key excerpts.

... U.S. efforts have largely backfired. Hezbollah has scored political points by painting Hariri's coalition as tainted by its association with the U.S. And U.S. military assistance has generated suspicion.

... the administration cannot afford to view the possible selection of a consensus candidate acceptable to Hezbollah as a greater danger than the failure to select anyone at all.

While promoting their own interests in the power vacuum created by the Syrian military withdrawal in 2005, some of America's closest allies in the Lebanese government and nearby Saudi Arabia and Jordan are believed to have supported the growth of the Sunni extremist groups. Moreover, thanks to a steady stream of Sunni militants from Iraq -- the types responsible for the most horrific attacks there -- continued growth is expected for the foreseeable future. At least, as long as the U.S. continues to look the other way, and as long as U.S. efforts to help the Lebanese military confront such groups are viewed with suspicion.

Long War Journal's Bill Roggio takes on the new U.S. counterinsurgency strategy for Pakistan in his Weekly Standard piece -- The Pakistan Problem, And the Wrong Solution.

This strategy was first reported on by the New York Times and Washington Post.

Roggio takes exception and points towards the differences in using the U.S. COIN lessons garnered from Iraq's Anbar province as a model for northwestern Pakistan.

Several key excerpts.

... the situation in Anbar is not comparable to the situation in the Pakistani northwest, and there is little reason to believe that a strategy like that reported in the Times will succeed in this more hostile environment.

The conflicts in Iraq's Anbar province and Pakistan's tribal areas are fundamentally different, and while both provinces are dominated by a strong tribal culture, al Qaeda's draws support in each for different reasons...

... the counterinsurgency campaign proposed for Pakistan is not at all similar to that executed in Anbar province. In Anbar, the tribes organized to fight al Qaeda only after they realized the error they had made in aligning with them. And the tribes openly fought al Qaeda of their own accord before seeking help from the U.S. Marine and Army units in Ramadi.

The Pakistani counterinsurgency plan, on the other hand, explicitly calls for U.S. forces to take a hands-off role in the Northwest Frontier Province. Unlike Anbar, the closest U.S. troops would come to direct involvement in Pakistan would be the embedding of Special Forces trainers into the Frontier Corps and Pakistani military. U.S. forces would not be able to come to the direct aid of Frontier Corps units.

Phillip Carter also addresses the new counterinsurgency strategy at his Intel Dump blog in A Formula for Blowback.

Our qualified success in Anbar has resulted from many lines of operation (in military parlance) — security, economic, political, legal, etc. On the security front, arming the tribes was one piece of the plan. It was a way to make permanent the security gains achieved with U.S. and Iraqi forces by replacing those forces with armed local militias, and a way to provide a measure of perceived security to local sheikhs (warlords), who felt they would be threatened in the absence of U.S. forces, unless they had their own protection. However, this only worked because we also had significant reconstruction carrots to use, and because we had a series of multilateral and bilateral agreements with the sheikhs for the employment of these forces and the abstention from violence. Not unlike 6-dimensional game of chess.

The big $64,000 question for me has to do with "blowback." It seems to me that the secondary, tertiary and unintended consequences of this plan will almost certainly outweigh the benefits...

Westhawk chimes in too in his U.S. to Try Divide-and-Conquer in Pakistan post.

Turning Pakistan's frontier tribes against their long-time al Qaeda guests seems like an improbable idea. However, the thought in, say, 2005 of turning Iraq's Anbar tribes against their al Qaeda allies seemed equally ludicrous. But today al Qaeda is about as popular in Anbar province as it is in Tel Aviv.

As with Iraq, the Americans are forced to proceed with a divide-and-conquer approach in Pakistan because every other strategy has failed. Most particularly, the Pakistani state, just like the Iraq's central government in Baghdad, is unable to govern its territory. Thus, as a matter of urgent necessity, the U.S. must largely bypass the Pakistani government in order to accomplish its security objectives...

From Hugh Levinson of the BBC: 'War on Terror' Flashpoints Identified. Levinson interviews newly appointed adviser to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, recent counterinsurgency adviser to MNF-I commander General David Petraeus, and of course SWJ blogger David Kilcullen. Kilcullen is quoted as identifying the three key critical future flashpoints for militant jihadists -- Pakistan, Bangladesh and Europe.

On Pakistan.

... "unequivocally" that future conflict will spike in Pakistan. He described the Taleban as a Pashtun movement that is trying to control the Pashtun areas straddling the border of both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

On Bangladesh.

... "disturbing trend in growing radicalism and Islamisation and a fairly capable network of terrorists and insurgent groups."

And Europe.

"the potential for subversion, radicalisation, a fair degree of social unrest and, of course, Europe and North Africa have a symbiotic relationship in demographic terms."

On LTG Ricardo Sanchez's Democratic radio address to be broadcast tomorrow see Abu Muqawama's And General Custer Will Give the Response to the State of the Union.

SWJ has more here and here and will be commenting after Sanchez has his say.

SWJ friend and Council member ZenPundit has a new url and a new look.

While you are visiting ZenPundit be sure to check out his 21 November post Ralph Peters on the Myths of Modern War. Here's an excerpt.

Peters is arguing for America taking a "Jacksonian" (in Walter Russell Meade taxonomy) posture toward our Islamist and terrorist enemies in particular and toward the world in general. It's an argument that may appeal to members of the American Legion [Peter's article appeared in their magazine], in particular the GI Generation of WWII vets who experienced fighting a total war, but it's not a helpful strategy unless our enemies manifest a sufficiently targetable center of gravity, like, say, taking over Pakistan and making Osama bin Laden Grand Emir.

Frankly, our goal should be to never permit let our enemies reach such a position of strength in the first place. That means peeling away Muslim and tribal allies of convenience to pitch in killing the al Qaida network, not lumping the Saudis in with al Qaida, the Iranians, Musharraf and whatever itinerant Middle-Eastern types seem vaguely dysfunctional in a civilizational sense (personally, I like reading about dead terrorists and I think their supporters, financiers, intellectual cheerleaders and mosque recruiters are all fair game for rendition or assassination, wherever they are. Doesn't that give us more than enough of room to work with without attacking the entire Arab-Islamic world ??). I won't even bother to go into the geoeconomic lunacy of bombing or attacking Saudi Arabia.

Hat Tip MountainRunner.

Congrats to John Robb on being named one of Esquire Magazine's Best and Brightest for 2007. Job well done John and much deserved.

Tom Barnett authors the write-up on Robb. Here is a brief excerpt.

Now an industry consultant on new information technologies, Robb's Global Guerrillas blog serves as an "open notebook on the first epochal war of the twenty-first century," which is his way of saying Iraq is to the Long War what the Spanish Civil War was to World War II: a preview of coming disruptions.

Finally, concerning an issue much discussed here at SWJ and the Small Wars Council, Max Boot comments in his Contentions blog post The Right Promotions.

One of the biggest impediments to transforming the U.S. government for the Long War is personnel policies that were designed for a different kind of world in which we faced very different kinds of enemies. The armed forces, for example, tend to reward officers who come from a very conventional mold. They may be world-class at defeating, say, the Iraqi Republican Guard. But can they deal with the threat posed by Al Qaeda in Iraq and the Jaish al Mahdi?

On the evidence of more than four years of war, a lot of officers have not been up to the challenge. Some have been—but they are not necessarily the ones getting promoted to general officer rank. For instance, two of the most outstanding and accomplished colonels in the U.S. Army have been passed over for promotion. Both Peter Mansoor and H.R. McMaster have history Ph.D.s, both successfully commanded brigades in Iraq, and both have been instrumental in crafting the Army's counterinsurgency doctrine. Mansoor serves as General David Petraeus's executive officer, or right hand man; McMaster, who is currently a fellow at a think tank in London, has been called back to Baghdad frequently for consultations. The fact that neither one has yet been raised to brigadier general indicates to a lot of people that there is something wrong with the entire promotion system.