Small Wars Journal

18 October SWJ Roundup

Mon, 10/18/2010 - 6:23am
Afghanistan

Widespread Fraud Is Seen in Afghan Elections - New York Times

U.S. Looks to Grass-roots in Anti-Corruption Effort - Washington Post

U.S. Military, Civilian Officials Claim Progress in Afghan War - Washington Post

Critical Assault by Allies Begins Near Kandahar - New York Times

In Afghan South, U.S. Faces Frustrated Residents - New York Times

NATO Service Member Killed in Southern Afghanistan - Voice of America

Afghan Gunmen Kill 9 Guards Protecting NATO Convoy - Associated Press

Attacks Hit Kandahar, Killing 2 Afghan Civilians - Associated Press

Blasts Hit Southern Afghan City, At Least One Dead - Reuters

Gates Weighs Afghanistan and Leaks - New York Times

Australia Wants More Action on Afghan Corruption And Rights - Reuters

Afghan: Consult System on Military Ops Not Working - Associated Press

In Afghanistan, the Exit Plan Starts With 'If' - New York Times

On the Front Lines of Saving Lives - Washington Post

NATO Service Member Killed in Southern Afghanistan - Associated Press

Detainee In NATO Afghan Custody "Found Dead" - Reuters

Tea in Kabul - New York Times opinion

Miss the Middle Ages? Try Afghanistan - Los Angeles Times opinion

Pakistan

Officials Pledge Support of Country's High Courts - Washington Post

Gunmen Kill 25 in Pakistan - Voice of America

Gunmen Kill 29 In Pakistan's Karachi as Election Held - Reuters

Gunmen Kill at Least 25 in Karachi During Weekend of Election - Associated Press

Government Critics Cite Pakistani Cabinet's Bulk - Washington Post

Voting Starts In Pakistan's Karachi After Violence - Reuters

Pakistan Party Pressures Government on Karachi Violence - Reuters

Trying to Win Pakistani Trust, 1 Flight at a Time - Associated Press

Pakistan Flood Victims Going Into Debt to Rebuild - Associated Press

Iraq

Sunnis in Iraq Allied With U.S. Quitting to Rejoin Rebels - New York Times

Iraq PM to Visit Iran - Voice of America

Iraq PM Comes to Tehran on Key Visit - Associated Press

Iraq's Allawi Charges Iran Destabilizing Mideast - Associated Press

Iraqi PM Seeks Neighbors' Support to Stay in Power - Associated Press

Iraq PM Seeks Regional Support For New Term - Reuters

Seven Iraqis Arrested In September Army Base Attack - Reuters

Roadside Bomb in Baghdad Kills Local Politician - Associated Press

At Least 8 Killed in Iraqi Robbery Attempts - Voice of America

Rush-Hour Baghdad Bombings Kill 1, Wound 5 People - Associated Press

Pentagon Expecting Leak of Iraq War Documents - Washington Post

U.S. Braces for Huge New Iraq Leak - BBC News

Iran

Chinese Businesses and Banks Bypassing U.N. Sanctions - Washington Post

Ahmadinejad Welcomes New Nuclear Talks - Voice of America

Ahmadinejad Endorses New Nuclear Talks With West - Associated Press

Iran's Leader, Hezbollah Seen as Lebanon Guardians - Washington Times

Iranian Official Calls for Trial of U.S. Hikers - New York Times

Iranian American Released from Prison in Iran - Los Angeles Times

American Visits Iran Blast Site Under Freedom Deal - Associated Press

Iran Orders Hand Amputation of Confessed Thief - Associated Press

Hand Amputation for Sweet Theft - BBC News

Borderline Threat - Washington Post editorial

Exposing Iran's Chief Liar - Washington Times opinion

United States

New Spy Game: Workers Sell Firms' Secrets Abroad - New York Times

Hollywood Glamorizes Murder and Debauchery - Washington Times

Foreign Policy: Big Ideas, Little Action - Washington Post opinion

The Wars That America Forgot About - New York Times opinion

Fewer Good Men to Defend Us - Washington Times opinion

United Kingdom

Hard-Hit British Heartland Braces for Cuts - Associated Press

Terrorism And Cyber Attacks to Top U.K. Security Threats - Reuters

Cybersecurity May Be Winner Despite Britain's Cuts - Associated Press

Africa

African Nations Vow LRA Crackdown - BBC News

Sudan Rebukes U.N. Over Border Buffer Zone Plan - Reuters

Somalia: Road Leads From One Misery to Another - Los Angeles Times

Somalia Surprise: Working Gov't, No Gunfire - Associated Press

Somali Government Seizes Bulo Hawo Town from al-Shabab - BBC News

Briton Kidnapped in Somalia Reported to Be Well - Voice of America

Somalia: Charity Calls for Hostage Release - BBC News

S. Korea: Somali Pirates Abduct 43 Sailors Off Kenya - Associated Press

Ex-Rebels Clash With Drug Smugglers In Mali Desert - Reuters

Niger Sources: Two Officers in Military Government Arrested - VOA

Nigeria Arrests Okah's Brother - Voice of America

Zambia Probes China Mine Shooting - BBC News

Mugabe: 2011 Zimbabwe Elections to End Coalition - Associated Press

Americas and Caribbean

Mexico: Where Cartels Rule, Police Tread Warily - Los Angeles Times

Mexican Hit Men Stalk U.S. - Washington Times

Mexico Watches California Marijuana Vote - New York Times

Case of the 20 Missing Mexican Tourists Doesn't Add Up - Los Angeles Times

Mexico: Gunmen Kill Local Official, Son in Ciudad Juarez - Associated Press

Six Killed In Gun Attack In Mexican Border City - Reuters

Wife Gives 2nd Statement on Mexico Border Lake Shooting - Associated Press

In Mexico, Scenes From Life in a Drug War - New York Times opinion series

From Risky Jobs to Jobs at Risk in Chile - Washington Post

Rescued Miners' Secrecy Pact Erodes in Spotlight - New York Times

Weary of Debris, Haiti Finally Sees Some Vanish - New York Times

Violence Erupts at Haiti Prison, 3 Inmates Killed - Associated Press

Asia Pacific

China Escalates Fight With U.S. on Energy Aid - New York Times

China's Communist Party to Set 5-Year Plan - Associated Press

Chinese, Japanese Stage Protests Over East China Sea Islands - VOA

Thousands in Chinese Provinces Stage Anti-Japan Protests - Los Angeles Times

Thousands in China, Japan Rally Over Island Claims - Associated Press

Going Long Liberty in China - New York Times opinion

Once Dynamic, Decline Leaves Japan Disheartened - New York Times

Lawmakers Sow Disillusion in Indonesia - New York Times

North and South Korea Restore Aviation Hotline - New York Times

N. Korea Threatens '1,000-Fold' Increase in Weapons - Associated Press

When Pyongyang Falls - Washington Post opinion

U.N. Chief Says He's Frustrated Over Burma - Voice of America

Foreign Media Barred From Covering Burma Vote - Associated Press

Burma Bars Foreign Monitors And Reporters From Poll - Reuters

Burma's Detained Democracy Icon Dreams of Tweets - Associated Press

Evacuations in Philippines as 'Super Typhoon' Nears - Voice of America

Super Typhoon Hits Philippines Amid Flood Alerts - Associated Press

Super Typhoon Hits Philippines - Reuters

Europe

Russia Looks to Formalize Relation With E.U. - New York Times

French Minister: Saudi Arabia Warns of Terror Threat in Europe - VOA

French Report New Threat of Terrorist Attack in Europe - New York Times

France 'Warned of Terror Threat' - BBC News

French Minister: Saudis Warn of New Terror Threat - Associated Press

France Hit by New Mass Protests - BBC News

Germany: Merkel: 'Multiculture has Failed' - BBC News

Germany: Merkel Says German Multiculturalism Has Failed - Reuters

Jailed Basque Separatist Urges Permanent Truce - Reuters

Dutch Terrorism Suspect Renounces Radicalism - Associated Press

Junior Partner Quits Kosovo Coalition, Vote Looms - Reuters

About 150 Kurds Go on Trial in Turkey - Associated Press

Middle East

With Statehood, Palestine Ready to End All Claims - Associated Press

Israel: New Date Sought For Paris Peace Summit - Reuters

Palestinians Weighing Alternatives to Peace Talks - Associated Press

Turkish PM: Israel Must Apologize for Raid on Flotilla - Voice of America

Israeli Official: Moroccan King Won't Meet Peres - Associated Press

Israeli PM Says Talks with Hamas for Captured Soldier Back On - VOA

Israel Renews Bid to Free Soldier Held by Hamas - New York Times

Israeli PM: Talks Resume on Swap for Held Soldier - Associated Press

Israeli Air Strike Kills 2 Militants In Gaza Strip - Reuters

Palestinians Say 1 Dead in Israeli Strike in Gaza - Associated Press

Iran's Leader, Hezbollah Seen as Lebanon Guardians - Washington Times

Syrian, Saudi Leaders Discuss Lebanon Tensions - Associated Press

Syrian, Saudi Leaders Met to Discuss Lebanon, Iraq - Reuters

U.S. Terror War in Yemen Frustrated by Politics - Associated Press

Yemeni Planes Bomb Al-Qaida Hide-Outs, Killing 5 - Associated Press

Yemen Sentences Al-Qaida Militant to Death - Associated Press

Bahrain Readies for Elections After Wave of Unrest - Associated Press

Mob Attacks Kuwait TV Station Over Royal "Insult" - Reuters

Vatican Bishops Ponder Middle East Christians - Voice of America

South Asia

India: Security of Electronic Voting Questioned - Washington Post

Report: FBI Warned Ahead of Mumbai Attacks - Voice of America

U.S. Had Warnings on Plotter of Mumbai Attack - New York Times

Scout in Mumbai Attacks was DEA Informant - Washington Post

Smiling Mumbai Attacker in Appeal - BBC News

Afghanistan: The Other Surge

Sun, 10/17/2010 - 6:51pm
The Other Surge by Dan Green in Armed Forces Journal.

While much of the public debate over the war in Afghanistan has focused on the "surge" of U.S. troops there and the effect of President Obama's July withdrawal deadline, a quieter but equally significant increase in civilian resources has also taken place. An "uplift" of U.S. government interagency civilian personnel from the State Department, the Agency for International Development and the Agriculture Department, among other agencies, has also taken place. Announced by Obama in March 2009, the civilian uplift is "a substantial increase in our civilians on the ground ... to advance security, opportunity and justice — not just in Kabul, but from the bottom up in the provinces." ...

Read the entire article at AFJ.

17 October SWJ Roundup

Sun, 10/17/2010 - 8:30am
Afghanistan

U.S. Military, Civilian Officials Claim Progress in Afghan War - Washington Post

Critical Assault by Allies Begins Near Kandahar - New York Times

In Afghan South, U.S. Faces Frustrated Residents - New York Times

Attacks Hit Kandahar, Killing 2 Afghan Civilians - Associated Press

Blasts Hit Southern Afghan City, At Least One Dead - Reuters

Gates Weighs Afghanistan and Leaks - New York Times

In Afghanistan, the Exit Plan Starts With 'If' - New York Times

On the Front Lines of Saving Lives - Washington Post

NATO Service Member Killed in Southern Afghanistan - Associated Press

Tea in Kabul - New York Times opinion

Miss the Middle Ages? Try Afghanistan - Los Angeles Times opinion

Pakistan

Government Critics Cite Pakistani Cabinet's Bulk - Washington Post

Voting Starts In Pakistan's Karachi After Violence - Reuters

Pakistan Flood Victims Going Into Debt to Rebuild - Associated Press

Iraq

Sunnis in Iraq Allied With U.S. Quitting to Rejoin Rebels - New York Times

Iraq PM to Visit Iran - Voice of America

Iraqi PM Seeks Neighbors' Support to Stay in Power - Associated Press

Seven Iraqis Arrested In September Army Base Attack - Reuters

Rush-Hour Baghdad Bombings Kill 1, Wound 5 People - Associated Press

Iran

Ahmadinejad Endorses New Nuclear Talks With West - Associated Press

Iranian Official Calls for Trial of U.S. Hikers - New York Times

Iranian American Released from Prison in Iran - Los Angeles Times

American Freed in Iran Says He Is Innocent - Associated Press

Iran Orders Hand Amputation of Confessed Thief - Associated Press

Borderline Threat - Washington Post editorial

United States

Foreign Policy: Big Ideas, Little Action - Washington Post opinion

United Kingdom

Hard-Hit British Heartland Braces for Cuts - Associated Press

Africa

African Nations Vow LRA Crackdown - BBC News

Sudan Rebukes U.N. Over Border Buffer Zone Plan - Reuters

Somalia Surprise: Working Gov't, No Gunfire - Associated Press

Somalia: Charity Calls for Hostage Release - BBC News

S. Korea: Somali Pirates Abduct 43 Sailors Off Kenya - Associated Press

Niger Sources: Two Officers in Military Government Arrested - VOA

Zambia Probes China Mine Shooting - BBC News

Mugabe: 2011 Zimbabwe Elections to End Coalition - Associated Press

Americas and Caribbean

Mexico: Where Cartels Rule, Police Tread Warily - Los Angeles Times

Six Killed In Gun Attack In Mexican Border City - Reuters

Wife Gives 2nd Statement on Mexico Border Lake Shooting - Associated Press

In Mexico, Scenes From Life in a Drug War - New York Times opinion series

From Risky Jobs to Jobs at Risk in Chile - Washington Post

Asia Pacific

21 Are Killed in Explosion at China Mine - New York Times

Chinese, Japanese Stage Protests Over East China Sea Islands - VOA

Thousands in China, Japan Rally Over Island Claims - Associated Press

Going Long Liberty in China - New York Times opinion

Once Dynamic, Decline Leaves Japan Disheartened - New York Times

Lawmakers Sow Disillusion in Indonesia - New York Times

N. Korea Threatens '1,000-Fold' Increase in Weapons - Associated Press

U.N. Chief Says He's Frustrated Over Burma - Voice of America

Europe

French Protesters Rally Over Pension Reform - Voice of America

France Hit by New Mass Protests - BBC News

Fuel Shortages as French Strike Again - Associated Press

Germany: Merkel: 'Multiculture has Failed' - BBC News

Germany: Merkel Says German Multiculturalism Has Failed - Reuters

Jailed Basque Separatist Urges Permanent Truce - Reuters

Dutch Terrorism Suspect Renounces Radicalism - Associated Press

Junior Partner Quits Kosovo Coalition, Vote Looms - Reuters

Middle East

Israel: New Date Sought For Paris Peace Summit - Reuters

Palestinians Weighing Alternatives to Peace Talks - Associated Press

Turkish PM: Israel Must Apologize for Raid on Flotilla - Voice of America

Israeli PM: Talks Resume on Swap for Held Soldier - Associated Press

Israeli Air Strike Kills 2 Militants In Gaza Strip - Reuters

Palestinians Say 1 Dead in Israeli Strike in Gaza - Associated Press

U.S. Terror War in Yemen Frustrated by Politics - Associated Press

South Asia

Report: FBI Warned Ahead of Mumbai Attacks - Voice of America

U.S. Had Warnings on Plotter of Mumbai Attack - New York Times

Scout in Mumbai Attacks was DEA Informant - Washington Post

16 October SWJ Roundup

Sat, 10/16/2010 - 5:59am
Afghanistan

Peace Talks Focusing On Site, Safe Passage - Washington Post

Petraeus: Taliban Allowed Into Kabul - Voice of America

NATO's 'Safe Passage' for Taliban - BBC News

Petraeus: NATO Has Facilitated Taliban Movement - Associated Press

Petraeus: NATO Helped Bring Taliban Official to Kabul - Reuters

Gates: Limited Damage from Leak of Afghan War Logs - Associated Press

For Midterm Voters, War Is Off the Radar - New York Times

What the Numbers Say About Progress in Afghanistan - CNN News

G.I.'s Accused in Deaths Were Isolated From Officers - New York Times

U.S. Soldier to Face Court-Martial In Afghan Slayings - Reuters

U.S. Army Trial for Afghan Killings - BBC News

Petraeus: Video Shows Grenade Use in Failed Rescue - Associated Press

Marines Deploy 'Green' Forward Operating Base to Afghanistan - AFPS

Zabul Province Blast Kills Several Afghan Villagers - AFPS

New Claims of Secret Afghan Jail - BBC News

Miss the Middle Ages? Try Afghanistan - Los Angeles Times opinion

Pakistan

U.S. Drone Attack Kills a Top Pakistan Taliban Leader - Washington Times

Conflict Brews Between President, Supreme Court - Los Angeles Times

Pakistan Says Willing to Assist Afghan Talks - Reuters

Militants in Pakistan Kill 2 in Attack on NATO Supply Truck - Voice of America

Officials: US Missile Attacks Kill 9 in Pakistan - Associated Press

Iraq

Iraq's Kurds Set to be Kingmakers - Washington Post

Face of Defense: Officer Uses Teaching Skills in Iraq - AFPS

Iran

Thousands Cheer Ahmadinejad in South Lebanon - Voice of America

In Iran, Future of University Is in Flux - New York Times

U.S. Department of Defense

Soldiers Identify Hasan as Ft. Hood Shooter - McClatchy-Tribune

At Hearing on Fort Hood Attack, Few Clues - New York Times

Fort Hood: Hasan Shows No Emotion - Washington Post

Immersive Training Builds Small-Unit Decision-Making Skills - AFPS

Agency Director Offers U.S. Missile Defense Outline - AFPS

United States

Probe Links European Plot to 9/11 - Wall Street Journal

Rice Meets with Obama, Then Defends His Approach - Washington Post

Obama, Rice Huddle on Arms Treaty, Other Issues - Associated Press

Reported Plea Deal in Guantanamo Case Draws Fire - Associated Press

Foreign Policy: Big Ideas, Little Action - Washington Post opinion

World

FAO Calls for 70 Percent Increase in World Food Production - Voice of America

World Trade, Once Rising, Is Starting to Sag Again - New York Times

Africa

China Seeks to Block U.N. Report on its Weapons in Darfur - Washington Post

U.N. to Boost Sudan Border Security - BBC News

Sudan Rebukes U.N. Over Border Buffer Zone Plan - Reuters

Sudan's Threatened Peace Deal - New York Times editorial

Somali Militias Clash, Undermining New Strategy - New York Times

Aid Workers Kidnapped in Somalia - BBC News

Zimbabwe President Wants to End Power Sharing Agreement - VOA

Zimbabwe: Mugabe to End Unity Deal Next Year - BBC News

Mugabe: 2011 Zimbabwe Elections to End Coalition - Associated Press

U.N.: Peacekeepers Can't Protect All In Eastern Congo - Reuters

U.N. Envoy Says Over 15,000 Raped in Eastern Congo - Associated Press

Nigeria Militants Threaten New Bomb Attack In Abuja - Reuters

Parties Divided Over Guinea Electoral Commission - Associated Press

Americas and Caribbean

Mexican Assassins Headed to Arizona - Washington Times

Tijuana Throws Festival for a Break from Drug Violence - Los Angeles Times

Mexican Marine, 3 Gunmen Killed in Shootout - Associated Press

Russia Says It Will Build Nuclear Plant for Venezuela - New York Times

Russia and Venezuela Sign Nuclear Power and Oil Deals - BBC News

Peacekeepers Break Up Anti-U.N. Protest in Haiti - Associated Press

Murder Trial Postponed for Suriname's President - Associated Press

Asia Pacific

Chinese Leaders Discuss Economic, Political Plans - Voice of America

China: Party Meets Amid Human Rights Dissent - Washington Post

China: Calls for Reform Spark Excitement, Skepticism - Los Angeles Times

U.N.: Rapid Rise in China's Yuan Could Stall Global Recovery - Voice of America

Chinese Dissidents Sign Letter Supporting Nobel Winner - New York Times

Chinese Christians Barred From Conference - New York Times

North Korea Threatens to Attack if South Resumes Propaganda - New York Times

N. Korea Threatens '1,000-Fold' Increase in Weapons - Associated Press

Europe

Medvedev Names New Mayor of Moscow - New York Times

Putin Loyalist Named New Mayor of Moscow - Los Angeles Times

Putin's Right-Hand Man Nominated Moscow Mayor - Associated Press

Putin's Agenda and Medvedev's Dilemma - Washington Post opinion

Georgia Shifts Leaders' Powers, Some See a Political Ploy - New York Times

Kosovo Set for February Parliamentary Election - BBC News

Norway Terror Suspect Released - Associated Press

Middle East

Israel Plan to Build Clouds Peace Talks - New York Times

Homes in E. Jerusalem Raises Doubts About Peace Talks - Los Angeles Times

Israel Unveils Settlement Plans - BBC News

East Jerusalem Housing Approval Irks Palestinians - Associated Press

Palestinians Protest New Jerusalem Housing Plan - Reuters

Thousands Cheer Ahmadinejad in South Lebanon - Voice of America

South Asia

Mumbai: U.S. Warned Key Figure in Plot Had Terror Ties - Washington Post

Adviser to Obama Extols India's Economic Model - New York Times

India to Probe Commonwealth Games - BBC News

This Week at War: China Backs Down for Now

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 7:32pm
U.S.-China ties seemed to be on the mend at this week's ASEAN summit.

Here is the latest edition of my column at Foreign Policy:

Topics include:

1) Did Gates get China to back away from the South China Sea?

2) Can the Pentagon innovate like its small rivals?

Did Gates get China to back away from the South China Sea?

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates's appearance at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) defense ministers meeting in Hanoi this week seemed to produce some welcome diplomatic developments. During a meeting with Gen. Liang Guanglie, the Chinese defense minister, Gates was invited to make an official visit to China. Gates had pleaded with his Chinese counterparts to reopen military-to-military contacts, which were cut off last winter after the U.S. government announced new arms sales to Taiwan. A second development, much welcomed by both U.S. officials and ASEAN leaders, was the absence of any renewed territorial claims by China over the South China Sea. Indeed, Liang explained that China's military modernization "is not aimed to challenge or threaten anyone." He did not repeat a recent Chinese claim that its possession of the South China Sea constituted a "core interest." China's demand earlier this year to change the South China Sea from a maritime "commons" to Chinese territory would have forced much of East Asia's commercial shipping to travel through Chinese territory, a demand that alarmed both the United States and countries in the region.

Just a few years ago, ASEAN leaders took pride in the fact that the United States was excluded from their club. But with the rapid buildup of Chinese naval and air power in the area, U.S. policymakers like Gates and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are now warmly welcomed at the group's meetings. Clinton's appearance in July at an earlier ASEAN meeting in Hanoi began the pushback against China's claim to the South China Sea. Gates's follow-up this week may have delivered the desired effect.

An unexpectedly strong backlash in the region may have prompted the Chinese to retreat. Chinese leaders may have been surprised by the resistance of ASEAN's leaders and the sharp response in Tokyo over the recent Chinese fishing boat incident in the Senkaku Islands. Chinese leaders have likely concluded that a tactical retreat is wiser than risking stiffening resistance in the region. China took steps to patch up its relationship with Japan; after Japan released the Chinese fishing boat captain, China released four Japanese workers it had seized. China also unfroze diplomatic contact when Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao agreed to meet on Oct. 4 with Japan Prime Minister Naoto Kan in Brussels.

The Clinton and Gates visits to Hanoi undoubtedly bolstered the confidence of those in the region who were —to push back against Beijing. But just as Liang attempted to persuade his audience that they should not fear China's intentions, Gates also tried to persuade China's leaders that they should not fear the current Pax Americana in the western Pacific. In his remarks to the ASEAN forum, Gates declared, "The United States has always exercised our rights and supported the rights of others to transit through, and operate in, international waters. This will not change." Thus, Gates assured the Chinese, your maritime commerce is safe with us.

But how likely are China's leaders to be reassured? Three decades of rapid Chinese economic growth is evidence that Pax Americana in the western Pacific has worked for China. But the rapid buildup of Chinese naval and air power, with intentions to project military power beyond Taiwan and deep into the Pacific, is evidence that Chinese policymakers are not satisfied with the U.S. Navy taking responsibility for securing their critical shipping lanes.

Gates hopes that more frequent contacts between U.S. and Chinese military leaders will dilute mutual suspicions. Although such efforts cannot hurt, U.S. policymakers should not expect such contacts by themselves to bring an end to China's naval buildup or the challenge that buildup presents to U.S. alliances and diplomatic efforts in the region. The task for Gates and his successors is to establish a long-term defense program that will continue to reassure U.S. allies and the ASEAN leaders with whom Clinton and Gates have recently had such good results. Leaders in the region will be watching the Pentagon's commitment to its Pacific Fleet and how that commitment rates compared to the expense of the war in Afghanistan.

Can the Pentagon innovate like its small rivals?

Is the "Western way of war," characterized by large national militaries equipped with expensive high-tech weapons, now obsolete? Ten years ago this week, suicide bombers in Yemen's Aden harbor fooled USS Cole's high-tech defenses. The 9/11 attackers bypassed all of the North American Aerospace Defense Command's meticulous preparations for defending U.S. airspace. The Fort Hood shooting and the attempted terrorist attacks over Detroit, and in Times Square all show globally connected conspirators evading traditional Western concepts of military and border defenses.

Are we now witnessing a new "revolution in military affairs" that threatens to scrap the Western way of war, and in the process make redundant the trillions of dollars the United States and other countries have invested in defense? Writing in Small Wars Journal, Maj. Tripp McCullar, a U.S. Army Special Forces officer currently assigned to the Defense Intelligence Agency, argues that the revolution in information technology will asymmetrically benefit small and weak nation-states and nonstate actors, allowing them to challenge the traditional military dominance of large powers.

McCullar asserts that the spread of information technology will empower previously weak actors with several critical means to outmaneuver large established rivals. The information revolution is already spreading mass-destruction weapons technology, which formerly was a monopoly held by the large powers. Second, McCullar observes that mass-destruction weapons in the hands of formerly small weak groups will make the traditional Western way of war, with massed armies and fleets, obsolete. Third, the information revolution allows small groups to mobilize support anywhere and especially "behind the lines" of traditional Western defenses. Finally, this ability to use social information technology for mobilization and organization trumps the West's traditional military advantages in strategic mobility and logistics.

Large traditional powers such as the U.S. military have the same or greater access to information technology as their small weak rivals. McCullar's thesis relies on an assumption that small adversaries have a greater ability and incentives to innovate using information technology than do supposedly large ponderous behemoths like the U.S. Department of Defense. The small actor's advantage in rapid innovation is the subject of The Diffusion of Military Power by Michael Horowitz, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania. Horowitz argues that financial capacity and "organizational capital" (a military institution's ability to flexibly adopt disruptive innovations) determine how particular military innovations spread to other military organizations. For example, aircraft carriers are both very expensive and culturally disruptive to established navies and therefore have been adopted by very few.

Most dreaded by traditional Western powers like the United States are those military innovations that require little financial capacity but high "organizational capital." Drawing from research on organizational adaptation and innovation, Horowitz argues that large old organizations have developed entrenched interests that resist disruptive innovations. Small new groups by contrast can more rapidly adopt such advances. Horowitz cites the diffusion of suicide terrorism as an example of a military innovation requiring low financial capacity and high organizational flexibility. Operating within Horowitz's framework, McCullar might foresee small adaptive groups using information technology to diffuse mass-destruction weapons to mobilized networks before traditional authorities can respond.

All is not lost for large established organizations like the U.S. military. Its level of organizational capital depends on the extent to which its culture promotes experimentation, responds to feedback from the field, encourages the mavericks in its ranks, and is —to support innovative ideas that might ultimately fail. In the world McCullar and Horowitz describe, the U.S. military needs to constantly improve on these measures if it is to remain relevant.

Petraeus: Taliban Allowed Into Kabul

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 7:23pm

Gen. David Petraeus, top U.S and NATO commander (L), and Ambassador Mark Sedwill, NATO Senior Civilian Rep. in Afghanistan address discuss 'The International Mission in Afghanistan', at the United Services Institute in London, 15 Oct 2010.

Petraeus: Taliban Allowed Into Kabul - Selah Hennessy, Voice of America

Gen. David Petraeus, top U.S and NATO commander (L), and Ambassador Mark Sedwill, NATO Senior Civilian Rep. in Afghanistan address discuss 'The International Mission in Afghanistan', at the United Services Institute in London, 15 Oct 2010.

The top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, General David Petraeus, said Friday that Western troops have allowed Taliban leaders into Kabul in order to talk with the government. Petraeus was speaking in London.

General Petraeus was speaking at the Royal United Services Institute in London. He said "several very senior" Taliban leaders have reached out to the Afghan government and, he said, to other countries engaged in Afghanistan.

He said in order to facilitate talks, western troops have allowed Taliban leaders to enter Kabul.

"Indeed in certain respects we do facilitate that, given that needless to say it would not be the easiest of tasks for a senior Taliban commander to enter Afghanistan and make his way to Kabul," he said. "If ISAF were not... aware of it and therefore allows it to take place."

Petraeus said allowing the Taliban leaders into Kabul was part of the U.S. and NATO forces' support for Afghan President Hamid Karzai's reconciliation efforts with the Taliban.

Petraeus said NATO-led forces have made progress in Afghanistan during the course of the past 18 months.

His visit to London comes in the same week that it's emerged a British citizen held captive by the Taliban may accidentally have been killed by a U.S. grenade.

It was initially thought Linda Norgrove's captors had killed her during a rescue attempt.

Petraeus said Friday the incident is being investigated. But he said close viewing of video taken during the operation suggested a U.S. soldier may have caused the explosion.

"They did achieve tactical surprise and then obviously the outcome was not what we had all sought," said Petraeus. "It was in the course of pulling the video off a hard drive which provides a sharper image then that which is fed through and that you watch on the ops center floor, it was very clear that there was a throwing motion and an explosion that followed that and that a grenade had been employed."

A military inquiry is to investigate how Norgrove, a 36 year old aid worker, died.

Petraeus' visit also comes as the British government undergoes a major review of its defense spending. The government is trying to reduce a record deficit. But Petraeus said Friday he had received assurances that operations in Afghanistan would not be effected.

"I have repeatedly received assurances that the support for Afghanistan is iron-clad, that it is fenced if you will and that it will be forthcoming."

Britain has 9,500 troops in Afghanistan. Prime Minister David Cameron has said he hopes to withdraw British troops by 2015.

A Conversation and Book Signing with Dr. David Kilcullen

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 5:06pm
A Conversation and Book Signing with Dr. David Kilcullen

***Thanks to all who attended last night's conversation and book signing with Dr. David Kilcullen. Your contributions to the conversation during Q&A were most appreciated and added a lot to the discussion on counterinsurgency -- both the "little c and the Big C". The Marine Corps Association will be formatting and editing the video from the event and we hope to have it posted in the near future.***

Thursday, October 14, 2010

7:00 to 10:00 pm (EST)

Gari Melchers Home and Studio (Studio Pavilion)

Fredericksburg, Virginia

Please join the Small Wars Foundation, the Marine Corps Association, Noetic, and Caerus Associates for a conversation on counterinsurgency with Dr. David Kilcullen on Thursday, October 14, 2010. Dr. Kilcullen will be addressing contemporary issues in regards to counterinsurgency and taking questions and commentary from participants. A reception (no cost to attendees) and book signing of Dr. Kilcullen's latest book, Counterinsurgency, will follow the conversation. Counterinsurgency will be available for purchase at the event. Space is limited so we ask that you please register early at the event information and registration page.

David Kilcullen is one of the world's most influential experts on counterinsurgency and modern warfare, a ground-breaking theorist whose ideas "are revolutionizing military thinking throughout the west" (Washington Post). Indeed, his vision of modern warfare powerfully influenced the United States' decision to rethink its military strategy in Iraq and implement "the Surge," now recognized as a dramatic success. In Counterinsurgency, Kilcullen brings together his most salient writings on this vitally important topic. Here is a picture of modern warfare by someone who has had his boots on the ground in some of today's worst trouble spots-including Iraq and Afghanistan-and who has been studying counterinsurgency since 1985. Filled with down-to-earth, common-sense insights, this book is the definitive account of counterinsurgency, indispensable for all those interested in making sense of our world in an age of terror.

Dr. Kilcullen is a dear friend and supporter of Small Wars Foundation's Small Wars Journal and is a member of the Foundation's Advisory Board. His Small Wars Journal postings can be found here.

Travels with Nick 2010 #4: The COIN Fight in Helmand

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 4:35pm
My visit to Camp Leatherneck and the PRT at Lashkar Gah reinforced that Helmand is the land of extremes. Afghanistan's largest and longest province, Helmand also produces most of the poppy in Afghanistan — making Helmand province a bigger producer of poppy than any nation in the world save its own.

Helmand is dominated by the Helmand River, which runs north-south from the Kajaki dam near Kandahar to Dishu in the south. The population of Helmand lives off and along the river and its canals and irrigation channels. Helmand's border with Balochistan, Pashtun tribes, and poppy dominated economy made it largely Taliban controlled — until recently at least.

The mission of Marines in Helmand is to wrest control of the population centers from the Taliban. This is tough counterinsurgency fighting and the Marines have done amazing work turning the tide in key districts of Helmand, though the fight is far from over. The offensive which began with Marjah in 2009 continued district by district into the key towns of the Helmand including Nad Ali, Musa Q'ala, Garmsir, and now Sangin. Taliban resistance hasn't disappeared by any means (even in Marjah) but don't underestimate the ability of the Marines to clear and hold. With a density of forces now in place and a dismounted force, the results from the population are visible. People are getting out, engaging in commerce, and talking to Marines about needs and concerns.

The build piece will take more time but a key element has been the establishment of village shuras that serve to both recognize traditional governing structures as a bulwark against the Taliban and to serve as a link between the population and the district government. This blending of traditional and official governance may be the best model for a realistic transition plan that effectively denies Taliban control of the south. One senior Marine noted that they see some patterns in what each village and district needs —a government center, a bazaar, a health clinic, a school, and a mosque. Making progress on these key pillars of daily life is a key part of the stabilization effort.

The build phase has a particularly strong partner in the Helmand PRT, based in Lash. Led by a British civilian but strongly staffed with a multinational civ-mil team, we were impressed with the passion and confidence in their capacity building efforts now that security is on the upswing. Such a civilized compound too! Much nicer than dusty Camp Leatherneck.

As I get ready to head back to Kabul, I leave with a heavy respect for the Marines and civilians in Helmand. There is no denying the challenges but I MEF and this PRT are taking Helmand back from the Taliban district by district.

SWJ Editors' Note: Nick Dowling is a small wars policy wonk with experience in OSD, the NSC Staff, NDU, and the contracting sector. He has worked on stability operations for 16 years, most prominently on Bosnia and Kosovo as a Clinton Administration appointee and Iraq and Afghanistan as a DoD contractor. He is currently President of IDS International, a leader in interagency and "soft power" types of support to the US military. He is a graduate of Harvard, got his masters at Georgetown, and is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

15 October SWJ Roundup

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 8:51am
Afghanistan

Push on Talks With Taliban Confirmed by NATO Officials - New York Times

NATO Says It's Ready to Help in Taliban Talks - Voice of America

U.S.-led Forces Aiding Reconciliation Talks - Washington Post

U.S. And NATO Back Afghan Taliban Outreach - Reuters

U.S., Reversing Course, Backs Afghan Peace Effort - Associated Press

Head of Afghan Peace Council Says Taliban Ready to Talk - Washington Post

Clinton, Gates Cautious on Afghan-Taliban Peace Contacts - Voice of America

Clinton, Gates Voice Support for Afghan Reconciliation - AFPS

U.S. Uses Attacks to Nudge Taliban Toward a Deal - New York Times

Karzai's Brother Might be Indicted by U.S. - Washington Post

Seven Western Troops Killed in Afghanistan - Los Angeles Times

NATO: 2 Troops Killed in Afghanistan Attacks - Associated Press

Attacks Kill 8 Foreign Troops In Afghanistan - Reuters

Pakistan

Pakistan Says Willing to Assist Afghan Talks - Reuters

NATO Supplies Ambush Kills 2 in Pakistan - Associated Press

Plot to Assassinate Pakistani P.M. Foiled - Washington Times

Sacked Pakistan Judges Fear Repeat Performance - Reuters

Clinton Urges Pakistan to Tax Wealthy for Flood Relief - Voice of America

Iraq

U.S. Military Releases Data on Iraqis Killed - Washington Post

U.S. Military Tallies Deaths of Iraqi Civilians and Forces - Associated Press

Iran

Iran's President Praises Hezbollah - New York Times

Ahmadinejad's Fiery Rhetoric Targets Israel - Washington Post

Iranian Money Amplifies Influence in Lebanon - Voice of America

Hezbollah's Gift for Ahmadinejad: An Israeli Rifle - Associated Press

Iranian FM: Ready to Resume Nuclear Talks Soon - Associated Press

Iran Wants to Discuss Dates to Start Nuclear Talks - Reuters

Iran: Detained Germans Admit to Breaking the Law - Associated Press

NATO

NATO Chief Urges New Response to Modern-Day Threats - Voice of America

Gates: Resources Must Match Words in NATO Strategic Concept - AFPS

NATO Must Adapt to Shifting Security Challenges, Clinton Says - AFPS

European Missile Shield Plan Expected to Gain Support - Washington Post

France Backs NATO Missile Defense System - Reuters

United Nations

U.N. Official: U.S. Is $1.2 Billion In Arrears At U.N. - Reuters

U.N. Climate Panel to Press Reforms - Agence France-Presse

U.S. Department of Defense

Defense Decisions: Limit Engagements or Build Strength? - Washington Times

Mental Health Specialists Were Hit Hard at Fort Hood - Washington Post

Department Abides by 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' Injunction - AFPS

Pentagon to Comply with 'Don't Ask' Order - Washington Post

United States

Judge Delays Resumption of Guantánamo Trial - New York Times

Lawyers Working on Deal for Youngest Detainee - Washington Post

Lawyers Working on Deal for Youngest at Guantanamo - Associated Press

Rice to Return to White House for Private Meeting with Obama - Washington Post

WikiLeaks and 9/11: What If? - Los Angeles Times opinion

United Kingdom

Clinton Worried Over U.K. Defense Spending Cuts - Associated Press

Australia

Australia Takes Command of Combined Task Force - AFPS

World

Focus on Hunger: On 30th World Food Day, 925 Million Still Hungry - VOA

Africa

Somali-American Is Named Prime Minister of Somalia - New York Times

British Aid Worker Abducted in Somalia - Associated Press

Somali Gunmen Kidnap Two Aid Workers - Reuters

North: Sudan Abyei Vote Deadline "Impossible" - Reuters

Mugabe Sees End to Zimbabwe Power-Sharing In February - Reuters

Already Struggling With Food Security, Kenya Faces Another Drought - VOA

U.N. Envoy Says Gov't Troops Continue Congo Rapes - Associated Press

Americas and Caribbean

Rewards for Miners Rescued in Chile - New York Times

Chile's Rescued Miners Face Reality Checks Above Ground - Los Angeles Times

Rescue May Redeem a Troubled Past for Chilean City - New York Times

Chile's Mine Rescue Caps Record of Successes - Washington Post editorial

Mexico: Alleged Chat Between Lawmaker, Capo Leaked - Associated Press

Mexican Lake Victim Possibly Mistaken for Other - Associated Press

Brazilian Opposition Candidate Tightens Race - Associated Press

Asia Pacific

China's Wen Inspiring Debate With Calls for Reform - Associated Press

Activists Challenge Beijing Over Nobel Prisoner - Reuters

China Letter Demands Peace Prize Winner's Release - Associated Press

Activists Challenge Beijing Over Nobel Prisoner - Reuters

After Peace Prize, China Targets Winner's Friends - Associated Press

Japan to Consider Relaxing Weapons Export Ban - Washington Post

Spate of Bombings Leave Thais Baffled, Unnerved - Washington Times

Thai Court Agrees to Hear Russian Arms Dealer's Appeal - Los Angeles Times

N. Korea: Meet the New Boss - Washington Post opinion

Central Asia

Next Kyrgyzstan Government Expected to Keep U.S. Base - Voice of America

Europe

Strikes in France Enter Fourth Day - New York Times

Greece: Riot Police Clash With Protesters at Acropolis - Associated Press

Middle East

Arabs May Ask U.N. to Recognize Palestinian State - Associated Press

Dismay, Disillusionment Prevail In Palestinian Camp - Reuters

Israel Approves New East Jerusalem Homes - Associated Press

Iran's President Praises Hezbollah - New York Times

Iranian Money Amplifies Influence in Lebanon - Voice of America

Hezbollah's Gift for Ahmadinejad: An Israeli Rifle - Associated Press

Egypt's Opposition: To Boycott or Not? - Voice of America

Militants Kill Local Yemeni Security Chief - Associated Press

South Asia

India Declares Commonwealth Games a Success - New York Times

India Ponders a Deep-seated 'It'll Do' Attitude - Los Angeles Times