Small Wars Journal

Professional Military Education: A Highly Peculiar Missing Link

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 7:20am
Professional Military Education: A Highly Peculiar Missing Link

by Tom Clark

If the Army Learning Concept is correct that we must out-think our opponents to win at competitive learning, then we are reframing knowledge as a commodity. This shifts our educational aim from the systematic study of a body of knowledge to the concept of leaps in learning. The actual problem is that our existing professional military education (PME) vocabulary has no word or governing concept for dealing with knowledge as a creative and artful endeavor.

We have been in this place before.

In the 1980s, US Army leaders engaged a similar issue when filling the void between winning battles while failing to achieve strategic goals. TRADOC commanders began a "public debate over what doctrine should be."(1) All sides in the debate came with strong beliefs on the topic of operational art.

The debate was difficult because as Edward Luttwak observed, there is a "peculiarity of Anglo-Saxon military terminology that it includes no term for the operational level of warfare."(2) The same void exists in professional military education.

Over the past decade, various studies, reports, and inquiries set lofty developmental goals. Noteworthy examples include an Army Training and Leader Development Panel's need to develop officers with enduring meta-competencies of self-awareness and adaptability to set conditions for lifelong learning. US Army War College faculty found a need for leaders with refined capabilities to learn "almost anything very quickly," and with mental agility at "recognizing patterns and converting abstract knowledge to appropriate action." A recent House Armed Services Sub Committee report called for military education to produce leaders with greater capacities for critical thinking.(3)

At lofty, strategic levels, the educational system works well in setting worthwhile goals.

While in practice, a highly centralized, task-focused curriculum controls the learning environment. At this tactical level, we have an efficient model to transfer knowledge.

As a result, professional military education often mimics a closed system for students to demonstrate mastery over the theory or principle of current interest. A learning system based on simple facts or "the ancient narratives."(4) An approach that is sometimes necessary at the military science tactical learning level, but never sufficient at the leader development, operational art level of education.

In a competitive learning environment, classroom activities are not an end in themselves rather efforts to set conditions for success in the real world. Neither technology nor lesson content can power education aimed at competitive learning. The most elegant curriculum and comprehensive lesson plan are of little importance in comparison to learning situations that require students to figure things out and then decide what needs to be done.

Accordingly, I offer two proposals. First, that we define the operational level of education as the art of generating and using knowledge to dominate unfamiliar adversaries, events, or situations.

Second, that we employ one independent and two dependent principles to frame the operational level of education.

The independent principle is to recognize education is an open system that responds to influence more than control.(5) Senior leaders provide an educational intent linking goals with necessary learning conditions and program outcomes. Centralized curriculum and instructor centered classrooms give way to collaboration and action learning. For example, a curriculum that presents students a terminal learning objective in a directed course of action is a closed system. Alternatively, presenting students problem sets along the lines of a leader reaction course is curriculum that influences thinking.

Momentum in learning supersedes unity of effort in classroom activities. Time-based schedules give way to purposeful activity that takes learners through goal directed projects to develop refined abilities in adaptive problem solving. For example, a four-hour lesson on an important topic followed by a narrowly scoped exercise is a much different experience than an open-ended question that requires students to create, integrate, and apply knowledge to a particular issue.

Student minds engaging real-world problems trump lessons emphasizing content coverage. The military science focus on mastery of a system of knowledge gives way to the art of transforming innovative ideas into decisive actions. For example, poring over an artificial standardized scenario is considerably less relevant than developing a plan to employ surge forces in an active theater.

The operational level of education emphasizes effectiveness over efficiency. The key measure involves learning seminars where leaders respond to complex real world problems. Concurrently, leaders come to understand what they are learning as well as how their efforts relate to their future in real-life situations. There are activities to develop new knowledge and to broaden reasoning skills in order to use both as a combat multiplier.

The Army Learning Concept makes salient the notion that creating, integrating, and applying new knowledge represent combat power.(6) Educational art aims to establish momentum that helps leaders learn faster and apply learning more quickly than any adversary.

PME needs to more than a series of check-the-block activities. Educational art is the missing link that enables PME to be an ongoing "aha" experience.

Notes

1. Swain, R. (1996). Filling the void: The operational art and the U.S. army. In B.J.C. McKercher & M.A. Hennessy (Eds.) (pp. 147-161). The Operational Art: Developments in the Theories of War. Westport, CT: Praeger.

2. Luttwak, E.N. (1981). The operational level of war. International Security, 5(3), 61-79.

3. See Department of the Army (2001). Army Training and Leader Development Panel, Officer Study Report to the Army. Reed, G., Bullis, C., Collins, R., and Paparone, C. (2004). Mapping the route of leadership education: Caution ahead. Parameters 34(3), 46-60. U.S. Congress House of Representatives, Report of the Committee on armed Services Subcommittee on Oversight & Investigations. (2010). Another Crossroads? Professional Military Education Two Decades After the Goldwater-Nichols Act and the Skelton Panel. Print 111-4: Washington, DC.

4. Smith, L.T. (2005). On tricky ground: Researching the native in the age of uncertainty. Denzin, N.K. & Lincoln, Y (Eds.) (pp. 85-108). The Sage Handbook of Qualitative Research (3rd ed.). (Eds.). Sage Publications: Thousand Oaks, CA.

5. See chapter 2 in, Alberts, D.S. & Hayes, R.E. (2005). Power to the Edge: Command and Control in the Information Age. CCRP Publication Series: Washington, DC. Also see, Mr. Y. (2011). A National Strategic Narrative. Woodrow Wilson Center: www.wilsoncenter.org.

6. For a discussion of combat power in other forms, see Dempsey, M. (2009). Our Army's Campaign of Learning. LandPower Essay 09-03. Association of the United States Army: Institute of land Warfare Publication.

Tom Clark is an Associate Professor at the US Army Command and General Staff College.

10 May SWJ Roundup

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 7:08am
Keep the Roundup (the Journal, the Blog and the Council) Going AND Get a Nifty Coin to Boot

Al Qaeda

Bin Laden Raid a Triumph for Spec Ops - Army Times

Bin Laden Raid Will Help Defeat al-Qaida, Obama Says - AFPS

The Force of the Deed - New York Times opinion

Pakistan

Pakistan PM Calls Accusations Over bin Laden 'Absurd' - Voice of America

U.S. Braced for Fights With Pakistanis in Bin Laden Raid - New York Times

Leak Threatens to Deepen U.S., Pakistani Rift - Washington Post

U.S. Rejects Pakistan's Criticism of bin Laden Raid - Voice of America

Leak of CIA Name Is Sign of Rift With Pakistan - New York Times

Pakistan's Premier Rejects Backlash over Bin Laden - Los Angeles Times

Pakistan Leader Decries Unilateral Operations - Washington Times

Pakistan Starts Bin Laden Inquiry - BBC News

Pakistan Suspected of Retaliating After U.S. Raid - Associated Press

Pakistan May Grant U.S. Access to Bin Laden's Wives - Reuters

Explosion Outside Court in NW Pakistan Kills 2 - Associated Press

Should the U.S. Cut Off Aid to Pakistan? - New York Times opinion

Afghanistan

Strain on U.S. Forces in Afghanistan at Five-year High - USA Today

Afghan Special Ops Units a Key to U.S. Exit - Associaed Press

Oxfam: Afghan Forces Not Ready for Security Role - BBC News

Oxfam: Time Running Out to Prepare Afghan Security Forces - Reuters

Officials: Insurgents Hit Afghan Police in North - Associated Press

Forces Disrupt Taliban Operations in Zabul Province - AFPS

Syria

Syrian Troops Intensify Crackdown - Washington Post

Syria Detains Opposition Activists in Continuing Crackdown - Voice of America

Syria Proclaims It Now Has Upper Hand Over Uprising - New York Times

Syrian Authorities Detain Hundreds in Fresh Raids - Associated Press

Tanks 'Near' Restive Syria City of Hama - BBC News

European Union Imposes Arms Embargo on Syria - Associated Press

E.U. Names Syrian Officials Targeted by Sanctions - Reuters

They Should Be Condemning Syria - New York Times editorial

Libya / Operation Odyssey Dawn

With Help From NATO, Libyan Rebels Gain - New York Times

Libyan Rebels Caught in Uneasy Lull - Los Angeles Times

NATO Bombs Tripoli, Combat Stirs East Front - Associated Press

Rebels Say Fighting in Tripoli, Government Denies It - Reuters

U.N. Seeks Pause to Libya Fighting - BBC News

U.N. Urges Ships to Help Migrants in Mediterranean - New York Times

What They Left Behind in Libya - New York Times

Yemen

Political Deadlock in Yemen Leads to More Violence - Voice of America

Deaths and Injuries Reported in Yemeni Protest March - New York Times

Yemen Security Forces Kill Two Protesters - Voice of America

Four Dead as Security Forces Fire on Yemen Protest - Reuters

Egypt

Egyptians Continue Protests Against Sectarian Violence - Voice of America

Egypt Tightens Security Amid Inter-Faith Tensions - Reuters

Egypt's ex-Tourism Minister Zohair Garranah 'Jailed' - BBC News

Egypt 'Needs Experience at this Stage' - Washington Post opinion

Iraq

U.S. in Limbo over Iraq Troop Presence - Washington Post

In Iraq, a Man-made Emergency - Washington Post

Al-Qaida in Iraq Pledges Support for al-Zawahri - Associated Press

Iraq's Qaeda Pledges Support to Zawahri, Vows Attacks - Reuters

Iran

Iran Soon to Power Up Nuclear Power Plant - Voice of America

Iran President Says Open to Dialogue - Associated Press

Iran to Attend Nuclear Talks in Turkey - Reuters

Israel / Palestinians

Mediators of Accord See a Glimmer of New Hope - Washington Post

U.S. Department of Defense

Lawmakers Moving to Block Defense Cuts - Washington Post

What a 'Super Soldier' Could Wear, Carry - Army Times

Northrup Grumman Unveils New Intel Aircraft - Air Force Times

A New Generation of Sea Mine Warfare - Stars and Stripes

Cyber-school Students: Pentagon Snubs Our Service - Associated Press

Virtual Worlds Form Defense Training Frontier - AFPS

Air Force Eyes New Learning Systems in 'Second Life' - AFPS

Retired General Warns of 'Rush' to End 'Don't Ask' - Washington Times

Navy Chaplains Could Soon Perform Same-sex Unions - Associated Press

United States

Attorney General Holder Vows to Close Guantanamo - Reuters

Africa

More Mass Graves Found in Ivory Coast - Voice of America

Ivory Coast Militias 'Killed 200' - BBC News

U.N.: 68 Bodies Found in Soccer Field in Ivory Coast - Associated Press

North, South Sudan to Remove Abyei Forces - Reuters

Nigerian Islamist Sect Rejects Amnesty Offer - Reuters

Southern Africa Mediators Report Progress in Zimbabwe Political Talks - VOA

In Burkina Faso, Leader Keeps Cool Under Fire - New York Times

Chad's Deby Wins Re-election in Boycotted Poll - Reuters

Americas

Mexico's President Offers to Meet with Anti-violence Movement - LA Times

13 Killed in Lake Gunbattle in Northern Mexico - Associated Press

Gunmen Dump Beheaded Bodies Outside School in Mexico - Reuters

Questions Accompany Drug Suspect Back to Venezuela - Associated Press

Ex-Wife of Reputed DR Drug Baron Enters Plea Deal - Associated Press

Ongoing Ecuador Vote Count Gives Correa Tight Win - Reuters

Cuban Govt Outlines Steps Toward Freer Market - New York Times

Cuba Publishes Awaited Details of Economic Changes - Associated Press

Cuba Denies Police Beat Dissident Who Later Died - Associated Press

Asia Pacific

U.S. Concerned About Crackdown in China as Talks Begin - VOA

Obama Raises Concerns About China's Crackdown - Associated Press

U.S., China Spar on Rights - Reuters

Chinese Crackdown on Domestic Critics - New York Times

China to Improve Nuclear Safety - New York Times

Taiwan Protests China Pressuring U.N. Body - Associated Press

Taiwan Lawmaker: Island Delays Purchasing U.S. Arms - Associated Press

Japanese Power Company Agrees to Reactor Shutdown - Voice of America

South Korea to Invite North to Summit if Conditions Met - Reuters

Japan's Nuclear Future in the Balance - New York Times

Thai Premier to Dissolve Parliament; Elections Set - New York Times

Philippines Court Agrees to Plea Deal with General - BBC News

Malaysia Police Hunt Attackers of Over 20 Women - Associated Press

Europe

Bosnia Said to Face Worst Crisis Since 1995 - Voice of America

Envoy: Bosnia Facing Worst Crisis in 15 Years - Reuters

Poland: Lawyers for USS Cole Bomber File Court Case - Associated Press

Bomber Kills Officer in Russia's Dagestan Region - Reuters

Greece Denies Report on New E.U. Aid Package - Reuters

South Asia

Indian High Court Suspends Ruling on Disputed Religious Site - VOA

India Court Urges Death Penalty for Honor Killings - Associated Press

LAAR on a Bar Napkin

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 7:17pm
LAAR on a Bar Napkin

by Aaron W. Clark

There is much debate over whether the US Air Force should field a Light Attack Armed Reconnaissance (LAAR) aircraft for use in counterinsurgency (COIN) operations like Afghanistan. Advocates exist in the US Air Force and the US Army alike. Generally, those in the Army like the idea because they envision the aircraft stationed near their area of operations, directly supporting their missions; an understandable desire, and supporters in the Air Force see LAAR as a tangible commitment to future COIN warfare. Thus both were disappointed last year when the US Air Force announced it would only purchase 15 aircraft to train pilots supporting the Air Force's Foreign Internal Defense mission. Critics believe this is just another example of the USAF's "historical reluctance" to support ground troops. Yet, even a cursory survey of the factors involved forces the question, is it really that simple?

As I write this, it is important to know that I have nothing to do with the LAAR program, nor do I know anything more about the details of its acquisition than anyone else that reads military journals or news articles. As a pilot, I think it would be a great aircraft to fly and I believe that, in certain environments, it could be an excellent combat machine. It is my curiosity that has caused me to write this article. Not long ago I sat in an audience and listened to someone ask an Indian Air Force General why they were not purchasing a LAAR-type aircraft for their COIN operations, instead of using high-priced fighter aircraft. Another time, I read an article from an Army Lieutenant Colonel touting the LAAR as the perfect solution for Afghanistan, and of course, I have often heard the argument about how cheap the plane would be relative the aircraft currently used in theater. Eventually I decided put pen to paper, or in this case a bar napkin.

Afghanistan is a country nearly the size of Texas. It is made up of rugged mountains and plains which cover 251,827 square miles (since this is a bar napkin we'll just round to 250,000). The current Theater Air Control System in Afghanistan is able to vector a jet aircraft to the location of an emergency close air support (CAS) request within 10-15 minutes of the call being sent. Since expedience may mean the difference between life and death, I will also use 10 minutes as an average response time for the LAAR aircraft. According to Wikipedia, the maximum speed for the proposed aircraft is approximately 300 knots. Bear in mind, the maximum speed of the aircraft will be affected by air temperature, altitude, and the weight of its munitions, but in this case 300 knots is easy to work with so we will use it. Now, an aircraft traveling at 300 knots can cover roughly 50 nautical miles in 10 minutes. Therefore, a LAAR aircraft could respond, in the necessary timeframe, within an area (A=πr2) equal to 10,395 square miles, but since it's a bar napkin we will round to 10,000. To summarize, an aircraft traveling at 300 knots, with a 10 minute response time, can provide cover over 10,000 square miles. Therefore, since Afghanistan is roughly 250,000 square miles, it would take 25 formations to obtain total coverage.

Many envision the LAAR aircraft as a platform that loiters over a given area, providing intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) and on-call CAS to ground troops on patrol. To maximize loiter time, the aircraft would need to be stationed somewhere close to expected patrol areas. Also, if aircrews are to be in quasi-direct support of the ground contingent, then it is beneficial to be stationed near their ground unit. Optimally, each orbit would have its own airfield. This would allow for detailed coverage of that area, alert aircraft that could respond quickly when needed, and the ability to mass aircraft over an area in the event of a heavy firefight. Since it's a bar napkin, let's plan for 25 remote airfields manned with a capability to provide 24-hour coverage; considering the number of ground outposts in Afghanistan that shouldn't be too much to ask. We'll assume it takes six aircraft to provide 24-hour coverage. This assigns each 2-ship formation a four hour time-on-station period, and subtracting pre- and post-flight operations, leaves approximately six hours to conduct necessary maintenance. Also, to prepare for fog and friction, let's plan for two aircraft as spares for unforeseen maintenance problems and as alert aircraft. This amounts to eight aircraft at 25 airfields; or a total of 200 aircraft in theater.

Of the aircraft proposed for the LAAR program, the Super Tucano and AT-6 Texan, both have two-person cockpits. Generally, it takes 12 crews to man a 24-hour schedule on a temporary basis. However, since crews would be required to man this operations tempo over an extended period of time, it is more accurate to calculate it with 15 pilots and 15 weapons systems operators (WSO). This allows the schedule to be met and for the necessary management of the system. With 25 airfields this equates to 750 aircrew members.

Anywhere you have combat aircraft, you also need maintenance personnel, weapons loaders, life support, and security forces (there is probably more that are required, but remember it's a bar napkin). Without a manning document handy, let's suppose it takes 10 maintenance personnel for each 12-hour shift, two life support technicians, and five weapons loaders. Bear in mind this is probably grossly underestimated since the proposed LAAR aircraft would require sheet metal, avionics, communication, fuel, and engine specialists, but it suffices for this exercise. Also, let's not forget these aircraft would make a very attractive target. Since the ground personnel in the area would have other duties to attend to, we will plan for one flight of security forces troops (44-person unit) to protect the assets and personnel. Again this number is probably low considering they need to protect a 5,000 foot runway and the area around it, but it's a bar napkin. Added together and accounting for the low estimate for support personnel, this means each airfield would require 75-100 people for maintenance, control, and security. That equates to somewhere between 1,875 and 2,500 support personnel dispersed at the various airfields in Afghanistan.

Also, these airfields and personnel would require a steady resupply of ammunition, bombs, fuel, and food. This could either be trucked across the country or flown in. If it is flown in, it would require a field big enough to land a C-130 or C-27; that is unless you want 500 pound bombs and fuel air dropped on a crate. I'm not a transport pilot, but that doesn't seem advisable.

Like anything, money is another consideration. A quick search on the internet reveals the cost of a LAAR aircraft (AT-6 Texan or Super Tucano) is between $8 million and $12 million each. Using the math in public rule, we will use the average of $10 million per copy. At 200 aircraft this equates to a bill of just around $2 billion. But wait, that is only the bill for the aircraft in Afghanistan. The service would also require aircraft to train new aircrew members and maintenance personnel, plus spares to replace those in theater which suffer from battle damage or other unrepairable damage. Let's suppose that takes another 75 aircraft. The total bill for aircraft is now in the range of $2.75 billion.

Also, pilots and WSOs do not come cheap. Each pilot takes one year to train during the initial pilot training phase, an additional two months learning fighter fundamentals, and up to six months learning the specifics of the weapon system. The training regimen for WSOs is similar. Since this aircraft would not be a replacement for aircraft already in the inventory, the bulk of the pilots and WSOs would need to go through the entire process and not transfer from a different weapon system. According to the Air Force Times, the service spends approximately $2.6 million to train a fighter pilot. Accounting for a reduction in fuel costs (jet vs. propeller), a shorter training period for qualified pilots, and the bar napkin we will just use $2 million. To keep it simple, let's just suppose it costs the same to train a WSO. So, it would cost approximately $1.5 billion to train the aircrew members in theater. Of course, there are also crew members in the States going through training and waiting to rotate through Afghanistan for their tour. To keep it simple, let's suppose it takes another 750 aircrew members; this allows for a 1 to 1 swap. That also requires another bump in the number of aircraft. So now we have 1500 total aircrew members and another 200 aircraft—new subtotal $3 billion for aircrew and $4.75 billion for aircraft. This means, not including research and development, the bar napkin cost of putting 200 aircraft in Afghanistan is somewhere near $39 million per copy.

Now, for those of you sitting back and saying, "These figures are totally unrealistic. The author's analysis is way too simplistic," I agree. The analysis is simplistic. That's why it is a bar napkin and not a federally funded report. The simplicity of the calculations is also totally irrelevant. The point is that, like everything in war, the LAAR debate is a complicated subject full of what-ifs, it-depends, and yeah-buts. Granted the entire country of Afghanistan does not need coverage 24-hours a day and airfields could be consolidated for different coverage areas. However, each change made to one factor of the debate forces a corresponding change to another, and for all the considerations I didn't cover on the pro-LAAR side of the debate, there are at least an equal number of issues I didn't address on the anti-LAAR side. In the end, the bar napkin is always full and always complicated. More importantly, as I alluded to in the beginning, simple answers are rarely as simple as they first appear.

Lt Col Clark is a command pilot with over 1200 hours. He has previously served as an Air Liaison Officer with the 4th Infantry Division, 2nd BCT, and he is a graduate of the Air Force's prestigious School of Advanced Air and Space School.

COIN Stars

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 6:30pm
Maura O'Connor has the COIN Stars at Columbia Journalism Review. BLUF: "Counterinsurgency bloggers help set the Afghanistan agenda and ten COIN blogs to read." Coming soon to the History Channel, right after Pawn Stars and American Pickers.

9 May SWJ Roundup

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 4:42am
Keep the Roundup (the Journal, the Blog and the Council) Going AND Get a Nifty Coin to Boot

Sunday and Monday News and Opinions

Al Qaeda

The Hunt - Washington Post series

Intel From bin Laden Raid Called a 'Treasure' - Washington Times

Obama's Team Sharply Divided Over Raid - Washington Post

U.S. Discusses Initial Conclusions From Recovered bin Laden Material - VOA

Official: Obama OK'd Raid Based on '50-50' Chance - CNN News

Obama: CIA's Evidence 'Not Absolutely Conclusive' - Washington Times

Divisive Deputy Seen as Next Leader of al-Qaeda - Washington Post

CIA Releases bin Laden Videos, Was Active Terrorist Commander - VOA

U.S. Releases Videos of Osama bin Laden -Los Angeles Times

Videos From Bin Laden's Hide-Out Released - New York Times

Bin Laden Shown as 'Active' Leader - Washington Post

Documents Show Bin Laden as Active Leader - Los Angeles Times

Intel Shows bin Laden Held Firm Control - Stas and Stripes

Bin Laden 'Controlled al-Qaeda' - BBC News

Bin Laden Compound was a Command Center - Reuters

Candid Videos Show Rare View of Unkempt bin Laden - Associated Press

Bin Laden's Secret Life in a Diminished, Dark World - New York Times

Helicopter Carrying SEALs Downed by Vortex - Bloomberg

Briefing on Bin Laden Documents - New York Times

Bi Laden's Legacy Alive in North Africa - Le Monde

Decade-long Search for Osama bin Laden - Washington Post

Reporter's Quest for Osama bin Laden - New York Times

The bin Laden Effect - Christian Science Monitor

Bin Laden Was Dead Already - New York Times opinion

Watery Grave, Murky Law - New Times opinion

Bin Laden and Geronimo - Washington Post opinion

Bin Laden's Death Changes Little - Wall Street Journal opinion

Pakistan

Pakistan-U.S. Rift Widens - Wall Street Journal

U.S. Raises Pressure on Pakistan in Raid's Wake - New York Times

U.S. Tests Pakistan Ties - Washington Times

U.S. Presses Pakistan on Bin Laden - BBC News

Security Crackdown in Abbottabad Follows U.S. Raid - Voice of America

Pakistan's Military Tries to Explain Itself - Time

In Pakistan, Calls for Resignations - Washington Post

Bin Laden Raid Sparks Rare Criticism in Pakistan - Associated Press

Was Bin Laden Really Calling the Shots? Doubts in Pakistan - Reuters

U.S. Asks Pakistan for Access to Bin Laden's Wives - Voice of America

U.S. Says It Wants Access to Bin Laden Widows - Associated Press

Pakistan's Terror Ties at Center of Upcoming Chicago Trial - ProPublica

Afghanistan

Taliban May Be Considering Options - Los Angeles Times

Without bin Laden, Taliban May Talk Peace - Washington Times

Broad Taliban Attack Paralyzes Kandahar - New York Times

Fighting Continues for Second Day in Kandahar - Washington Post

Kandahar Taliban Attackers 'Defeated' - BBC News

Major Afghan Taliban Assault in Kandahar Kills 2, Wounds 20 - VOA

Taliban Attacks Government Sites in Kandahar - Washington Post

Insurgents Launch Deadly Assault in Kandahar - Los Angeles Times

Taliban Attack Afghan Government Offices in South - Associated Press

Taliban's Kandahar Raid Into Second Day - BBC News

Insurgents' Fight Halted on 2nd Day in Kandahar - Associated Press

Taliban Launch Wave of Attacks in Afghan Kandahar - Reuters

Interior Ministry: Fighting Resumes in Kandahar - Associated Press

Afghan Security Forces Battle Kandahar Insurgents for 2nd Day - Reuters

Afghan, NATO Troops Try to Eliminate Taliban Holdouts in Kandahar City - VOA

AP Interview: Petraeus on bin Laden-Taliban Link - Associated Press

Taliban Release Video of Missing Canadian - Associated Press

Taliban Say Bar Juvenile 'Beardless' Boys Among Its Ranks - Reuters

Boy Suicide Bomber Recruits Paraded by Afghan Authorities - Reuters

Syria

Syria Broadens Deadly Crackdown on Protesters - New York Times

Syria Crackdown Escalates, Spreads - Washington Post

Syrian Army 'Surrounds Damascus Suburb' - BBC News

Assad's Reformist Image Falters - Washington Post

Syrian Troops Reportedly Enter Restive Banias - New York Times

Syrian Troops Storm Northern Town - Washington Post

Rights Groups: Syrian Forces Raid More Cities - Voice of America

Sluggish on Syria - Washington Post opinion

Libya / Operation Odyssey Dawn

Supplies Running Low in Besieged Rebel City - Los Angeles Times

Libya Strikes Fuel Supply in City Held by Rebels - New York Times

Gaddafi Forces Bomb Fuel Depots - Washington Post

Libyan Forces Destroy Key Fuel Supply in Misurata -Los Angeles Times

Gadhafi Forces Bear Down on Western Libya - Voice of America

Gaddafi 'Shoot 'N Scoot' Frustrates NATO in Misrata - Reuters

Shortages Choke Tripoli as Sanctions Take Hold - Associated Press

Yemen

Yemeni Security Forces Fire on Protesters, 3 Dead - Associated Press

Egypt

Egypt to Use 'Iron Hand' for Security After Deadly Sectarian Violence - VOA

Egypt Warns of 'Iron Fist' Response After Clashes - BBC News

Clashes Leave 12 Dead and 2 Churches in Flames - New York Times

12 Dead as Christians and Muslims Clash - Washington Post

12 Dead in Muslim-Christian Clashes in Egypt - Los Angeles Times

Egypt PM in Urgent Talks over Muslim-Christian Clashes - BBC News

Church Burning Deepens Tumult of Egypt Transition - Associated Press

Egypt Religious Strife Kills 12, Challenges Government - Reuters

Muslim-Christian Clashes Kill 5 in West Cairo - Associated Press

Egypt's New Foreign Policy Tests Old Alliances - Los Angeles Times

U.S. Plans Debt Relief for Egypt - Washington Post

Morocco

Thousands Demand Reform in Morocco Rally - Reuters

Iraq

Attempted Baghdad Prison Break Kills 17 - Voice of America

Officers and Inmates Are Killed in Iraq Jail Revolt - New York Times

17 Killed in Al-Qaida Assault on Iraqi Prison - Associated Press

Al Qaeda Leader, 17 Others Killed in Iraq Jail Clash - Reuters

Officials: 5 Killed in a Robbery North of Baghdad - Associated Press

Iran

Analysis: Deep Echoes of Iran Political Tremors - Associated Press

Bahrain

Bahrain Says It Will End State of Emergency - New York Times

Bahrain: Order to End Emergency Rule - Washington Post

Bahrain to Lift State of Emergency From June 1 - Reuters

A Reformer Who Needs Our Help - Washington Post opinion

Israel / Palestinians

Abbas Urges Continuation of U.S. Aid Despite Agreement - New York Times

Israeli Strike on Iran 'Stupid,' Ex-Spy Chief Says -New York Times

Israel's Arab Minority to Get TV Station - Associated Press

The Time for Posturing is Over - Le Monde editorial

A Fatah-Hamas Deal - New York Times editorial

Middle East / North Africa Unrest

End of Mideast Wholesale - New York Times opinion

U.S. Department of Defense

Adm. William McRaven's 'Spec Ops' - Washington Post

New Army Chief of Staff Eyes Big Changes - Army Times

Social Media Alter Diplomacy, Military Tactics - McClatchy Newspapers

Health Care Costs a Hefty Price Tag for Pentagon - Associated Press

How to Cut the Military - New York Times opinion

World's Navies

Aircraft Carriers Gain Clout in Naval Power - Associated Press

United States

Smugglers Guide Illegal Immigrants via Cellphone Cues - New York Times

The White House's Bedtime Bombshell - New York Times

NY Lawmakers Eye bin Laden Bounty for 9/11 Victims - Associated Press

In Kansas Courtroom, Echoes of Rwanda Genocide - New York Times

SecDef Gates Urges Graduates to Consider Public Service - AFPS

Why We Celebrate a Killing - New York Times opinion

Whose Foreign Policy Is It? - New York Times opinion

Africa

Diplomats Urge Compromise Over S. Sudan Region - Associated Press

Gunmen Attack Village Killing 16 in Nigeria - Voice of America

Nigeria Opposition Goes to Court Over Election Result - Reuters

New Ivory Coast Mass Graves Found - BBC News

High-Level Corruption Cases Mount in South Africa - Associated Press

Americas

In Mexico City, Crowds Protest Drug Violence - Los Angeles Times

Tens of Thousands March in Mexico Against Violence - New York Times

Thousands March Against Violence in Mexico City - Associated Press

Thousands of Mexicans March to Protest Drug War - Reuters

Mexican Police Capture Suspected Drug Gang Leader - Associated Press

U.S.-Bred Criminal Accused in Mexico Mass Killings - Associated Press

Polls Show Fujimori Gaining in Tight Peru Race - Reuters

Ecuador's Correa Declares Referendum Victory - Associated Press

Ecuador Leader Plans Court Revamp After Vote Boost - Reuters

Police Chief, Son Killed in Western Venezuela - Associated Press

Cubans to Learn Specifics of Economic Changes -Associated Press

Cuba to Finally Unveil Communist-Approved Reforms - Reuters

Cuba Dissident Dies, Allies Allege Police Beating - Associated Press

Haitian Lawmakers Vote to Allow Dual Nationality - Associated Press

Asia Pacific

Japan Reaffirms Nuclear Energy Use - New York Times

Japan Expected to Shut Nuclear Plant Over Quake Worries - Reuters

Japan MoD Backs Plan to Keep Marine Air on Okinawa - Stars and Stripes

Beijing Blames Foreigners for Its Fears of Unrest - New York Times

U.S.-China to Tackle Thorny Issues - BBC News

Talks Between U.S. and China Aim to Keep Irritants in Check - Reuters

South Korea Ruling Party Mulls Policy Shift Amid Crisis - Reuters

Conflict and Controversy Overshadow Unity at ASEAN Summit - VOA

ASEAN Summit Fails to Resolve Thai-Cambodia Conflict - Reuters

Thai, Cambodian PMs Fail to End Border Dispute - Associated Press

Bombs Kill 7 Security Forces in Southern Thailand - Reuters

Suspected Muslim Militants Kill 8 in Thai South - Associated Press

Fresh Religious Tensions Brewing in Malaysia - Associated Press

Europe

Czech Police Detain Pakistani Terror Suspect - Voice of America

Five Killed in Clashes in Russia's North Caucasus - Voice of America

1 Policeman, 8 Rebels Killed in Russia - Associated Press

8 May SWJ Roundup

Sun, 05/08/2011 - 6:16am
Keep the Roundup (the Journal, the Blog and the Council) Going AND Get a Nifty Coin to Boot

Al Qaeda

The Hunt - Washington Post series

Divisive Deputy Seen as Next Leader of al-Qaeda - Washington Post

CIA Releases bin Laden Videos, Was Active Terrorist Commander - VOA

U.S. Releases Videos of Osama bin Laden -Los Angeles Times

Videos From Bin Laden's Hide-Out Released - New York Times

Bin Laden Shown as 'Active' Leader - Washington Post

Documents Show Bin Laden as Active Leader - Los Angeles Times

Intel Shows bin Laden Held Firm Control - Stas and Stripes

Bin Laden 'Controlled al-Qaeda' - BBC News

Bin Laden Compound was a Command Center - Reuters

Candid Videos Show Rare View of Unkempt bin Laden - Associated Press

Bin Laden's Secret Life in a Diminished, Dark World - New York Times

Helicopter Carrying SEALs Downed by Vortex - Bloomberg

Briefing on Bin Laden Documents - New York Times

Reporter's Quest for Osama bin Laden - New York Times

The bin Laden Effect - Christian Science Monitor

Bin Laden Was Dead Already - New York Times opinion

Watery Grave, Murky Law - New Times opinion

Bin Laden and Geronimo - Washington Post opinion

Pakistan

Security Crackdown in Abbottabad Follows U.S. Raid - Voice of America

In Pakistan, Calls for Resignations - Washington Post

Bin Laden Raid Sparks Rare Criticism in Pakistan - Associated Press

Afghanistan

Major Afghan Taliban Assault in Kandahar Kills 2, Wounds 20 - VOA

Taliban Attacks Government Sites in Kandahar - Washington Post

Insurgents Launch Deadly Assault in Kandahar - Los Angeles Times

Taliban Attack Afghan Government Offices in South - Associated Press

Taliban's Kandahar Raid Into Second Day - BBC News

Taliban Launch Wave of Attacks in Afghan Kandahar - Reuters

Interior Ministry: Fighting Resumes in Kandahar - Associated Press

Afghan Security Forces Battle Kandahar Insurgents for 2nd Day - Reuters

Boy Suicide Bomber Recruits Paraded by Afghan Authorities - Reuters

Syria

Syrian Tanks Enter Coastal Town of Banias - Voice of America

Syrian Troops Reportedly Enter Restive Banias - New York Times

Syrian Troops Storm Northern Town - Washington Post

Syrian Tanks and Troops 'Enter Flashpoint Baniyas City' - BBC News

Syrian Forces Kill Women Protesters - Voice of America

Libya / Operation Odyssey Dawn

Gadhafi Forces Bomb Oil Tanks in Besieged Misrata - Voice of America

Libya Strikes Fuel Supply in City Held by Rebels - New York Times

Gaddafi Forces Bomb Fuel Depots - Washington Post

Libyan Forces Destroy Key Fuel Supply in Misurata -Los Angeles Times

Gadhafi Forces Bomb Fuel Depot in Rebel-Held City - Associated Press

Italy to Supply Libyan Rebels With Arms - Reuters

Yemen

Police Fire at Yemeni Protest, 1 Killed - Associated Press

Yemen Youth Protest Leaders Want Gulf Plan Withdrawn - Reuters

Egypt

Egypt's New Foreign Policy Tests Old Alliances - Los Angeles Times

U.S. Plans Debt Relief for Egypt - Washington Post

Egypt PM in Urgent Talks over Muslim-Christian Clashes - BBC News

Muslim-Christian Clashes Kill 5 in West Cairo - Associated Press

At Least Five Dead in Egyptian Sectarian Clash - Reuters

Nephew of Sadat Killer Returns to Egypt From Iran - Associated Press

Tunisia

Tunisian Government Orders Curfew in, Near Capital - Associated Press

Tunisia Declares Curfew After Renewed Protests - Reuters

Morocco

Al-Qaida Offshoot Denies Morocco Bombing - Associated Press

Iraq

16 Killed in Clashes at Iraqi Detention Center - Associated Press

Officials: 5 Killed in a Robbery North of Baghdad - Associated Press

Gunmen Kill Five in Iraq Money Exchange Heist - Reuters

Iran

Analysis: Deep Echoes of Iran Political Tremors - Associated Press

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Reformers Face Trial After 4-Year Detention - Reuters

Israel / Palestinians

Hamas Breaks Up Salafist Bin Laden Rally in Gaza - Reuters

Ex-Israeli Spymaster Opposes Iran Attack - Associated Press

Middle East / North Africa Unrest

Latest Developments in Arab World's Unrest - Associated Press

End of Mideast Wholesale - New York Times opinion

U.S. Department of Defense

Adm. William McRaven's 'Spec Ops' - Washington Post

New Army Chief of Staff Eyes Big Changes - Army Times

Gates Visits Littoral Combat Ship USS Independence - AFPS

United States

The White House's Bedtime Bombshell - New York Times

Nuclear Agency Criticized as Too Close to Its Industry - New York Times

Why We Celebrate a Killing - New York Times opinion

Africa

Diplomats Urge Compromise Over S. Sudan Region - Associated Press

Gunmen Attack Village Killing 16 in Nigeria - Voice of America

Ivory Coast Begins Questioning of Ex-Leader Gbagbo - Voice of America

Uganda Protests 'Only the Beginning,' Leader Says - Associated Press

A Hammer, a Hood and the Hooking of Uganda's Besigye - Reuters

Americas

U.S.-Bred Criminal Accused in Mexico Mass Killings - Associated Press

Ecuador Referendum to Test President's Popularity - Voice of America

Ecuador Votes on Bid to Give More Control to President - New York Times

Ecuador's Correa Declares Referendum Victory - Associated Press

Polls Show Vote Victory for Ecuador's Correa - Reuters

Peru Poll Shows Humala and Fujimori in Virtual Tie - Reuters

Violence in Venezuelan Prison Leaves 8 Dead - Associated Press

Crash of U.N. Observation Flight Kills 6 Bolivians - Associated Press

Cubans to Learn Specifics of Economic Changes -Associated Press

Cuba to Finally Unveil Communist-Approved Reforms - Reuters

Asia Pacific

Japan MoD Backs Plan to Keep Marine Air on Okinawa - Stars and Stripes

Japan Anti-Nuclear Protesters Rally After PM Call to Close Plant - Reuters

Official: Japan Won't Abandon Nukes Despite Crisis - Associated Press

ASEAN Summit Highlights Economic Gains, Political Growing Pains - VOA

ASEAN Summit Fails to Resolve Thai-Cambodia Conflict - Reuters

Thai, Cambodian PMs Fail to End Border Dispute - Associated Press

Bombs Kill 7 Security Forces in Southern Thailand - Reuters

Suspected Muslim Militants Kill 8 in Thai South - Associated Press

Singapore's PAP Retains Power; Opposition Makes Gains - Reuters

Singapore Loosens Grip on Internet - New York Times

Talking to China - New York Times editorial

Europe

Russia's Putin Says Ruling Party Needs New Ideas - Reuters

Greek PM Denies Euro Exit; Says Leave Greece Alone - Reuters

Tensions High as Albanians Prepare to Vote - Voice of America

South Asia

Police Block Maldives Protest Over Food Prices - BBC News

7 May SWJ Roundup

Sat, 05/07/2011 - 8:09am
Keep the Roundup (the Journal, the Blog and the Council) Going AND Get a Nifty Coin to Boot

ABC News: Osama Bin Laden's Files Reveal Terror Secrets

Al Qaeda

The Hunt - Washington Post series

Trail to bin Laden Began with Phone Call - Washington Post

Al-Qaida Confirms bin Laden Death - Voice of America

Bin Laden Dead, 'al-Qaeda' Admits - BBC News

Al-Qaida Vows Revenge for bin Laden's Death - Associated Press

Al-Zawahri Likely bin Laden's Heir Apparent - Voice of America

Al Qaeda 'Playbook' Revealed - ABC News

Did Bin Laden Raid Use a Sealth Copter? - Los Angeles Times

U.N. Investigators Call for More Facts on bin Laden Death - VOA

A Scattering of Protests Honoring Bin Laden - New York Times

Pakistan

U.S. Tells Pakistan to Name Agents - New York Times

Why the U.S. Mistrusts Pakistan's Spies - Reuters

Pakistan Paints Dismal Image of Bin Laden's End - Associated Press

Unusual Quiet from Radical Groups - Washington Post

U.S. Drone Strike Kills 15 Militants, Says Pakistan - Voice of America

Drone Strike Said to Kill at Least 8 in Pakistan - New York Times

U.S. Drone 'Kills 12' in North Waziristan - BBC News

Pakistan: Eight Killed in Quetta Explosion - BBC News

Afghanistan

Gates: bin Laden Death Could be 'Game Changer' - Voice of America

Bin Laden's Death May Impact Afghanistan, Gates Says - AFPS

Gates: Bin Laden Death Could be a Game Changer - Associated Press

Taliban Say Bin Laden Death Will Revive Afghan Insurgency - Reuters

Gunmen Attack Afghan Governor's Compound in South - Associated Press

Explosions, Gunbattle Near Kandahar Governor's Compound - Reuters

Infantry Desk Guilt - New York Times

Afghan Boy, 6, Has Rare Surgery in NJ Hospital - Associated Press

Syria

Clashes in Syria Leave At Least 31 Dead - Voice of America

Syrian Tanks and Troops 'Enter Flashpoint Baniyas City' - BBC News

Syrian Troops Reportedly Enter Restive Coastal City - New York Times

Syrian Tanks Enter Coastal Town in New Crackdown - Associated Press

Syrians Stage Widespread Protests - Washington Post

Witnesses: Syrian Forces Kill 30 Protesters - Associated Press

Syrian Police Arrest Influential Damascus Preacher - Reuters

E.U. Nations Agree on Syria Sanctions Next Week - Associated Press

Libya / Operation Odyssey Dawn

Amnesty International Says War Crimes Conducted in Libya - Voice of America

Opposition Outline Post-Gaddafi 'Road Map' - BBC News

Rebels Using Aid to Purchase Weapons - Washington Post

Land Mines Descend on Misurata's Port - New York Times

Young Men of Misurata Feel the Rush of War - Los Angeles Times

France Expels 14 Libyan Officials - New York Times

Yemen

Yemen Drone Strike Was Aimed at Awlaki - New York Times

U.S.-born Cleric Target of Yemen Drone Strike - Los Angeles Times

Yemen al-Qaeda Head Anwar al-Awlaki 'Targeted by Drone' - BBC News

Yemen Youth Protest Leaders Want Gulf Plan Withdrawn - Reuters

Egypt

Egypt Protest Groups Plan Election Strategy - BBC News

Morocco

Morocco: Three Arrested over Marrakesh Cafe Blast - BBC News

Morocco Bomb Suspect Wore 'Hippie' Disguise - Reuters

Tunisia

Tunisian Police Battle Anti-Government Protesters - Reuters

Algeria

Reporter Shot Dead in Algerian Militant Stronghold - Reuters

Iraq

Negotiating Kirkuk - Foreign Policy

Iran

Pressure on Ahmadinejad Growing - Washington Post

Power Struggle in Iran Enters the Mosque - New York Times

Row Between Iranian Leaders Comes to a Head - BBC News

Ahmadinejad on the Ropes in Clash with Supreme Leader - Time

Iranian Filmmaker Tiptoes Around the Censors - New York Times

Bahrain

Bahrain's Rulers Cast Net for Loyalty Oaths Online - Associated Press

Bahrain Unrest: Protester Jailed for Five Years - BBC News

Lebanon

New Indictment in ex-Lebanon PM Rafik Hariri's Probe - BBC News

Lebanon Prosecutor Amends Hariri Killing Indictment - Reuters

Israel / Palestinians

Drive for Palestinian Unity Exposes Fractured Society - New York Times

U.N. Urges Israel Not to Withhold Palestinian Funds - Reuters

Middle East / North Africa Unrest

Latest Developments in Arab World's Unrest - Associated Press

U.S. Department of Defense

Operational Uncertainties Require Flexibility, Gates Says - AFPS

United States

Obama Salutes Troops From bin Laden Operation - Voice of America

U.S. Will Defeat Terrorists, Obama Tells Troops - AFPS

Presidential Spotlight Shines on the Commandos - New York Times

Obama Hails Bin Laden Raid Team - BBC News

Obama to bin Laden Assault Team: 'Job Well Done' - Associated Press

World

Clinton: Global Food Shortages, Rising Prices Threaten Destabilization - VOA

Africa

Attackers Kill 16, Burn Homes in North Nigeria Town - Reuters

U.N. Worried About Standoff in Disputed Sudan Region - Reuters

Ouattara Takes Oath of Office as Ivory Coast President - Voice of America

Ivory Coast's President Sworn In - BBC News

Protection Fees, Stolen Ammo Extend Somalia's War - Associated Press

Americas

Canadian Court Denies Terror Extradition Appeal - Associated Press

Criticism of Calderon Mounts over Mexico Drug Violence - Los Angeles Times

Mexico Sending Troops to North Amid Attacks - Associated Press

Mexico Detains 4 Cops, 6 Foreigners in Kidnappings - Associated Press

Alleged Serb Drug Gang Swept Up by Brazilian Cops - Associated Press

Cuba Ex-minister Roca-Iglesias Jailed for Corruption - BBC News

Asia Pacific

Japan Asks Another Nuclear Plant to Shut Down Reactors - New York Times

China, Central Asian States Hold Anti-Terror Drill - Associated Press

Thailand's PM Seeks to Dissolve Parliament, Call Election - New York Times

Thailand, Cambodia Agree to Indonesian Observers at Border - VOA

Thai, Cambodian PMs Agree to Meet at ASEAN Summit - Associated Press

Asean Summit Opens Amid Thailand-Cambodia Border Row - BBC News

Europe

Liberal Democrats Dealt Huge Blow in Britain Votes - New York Times

Coroner Rules in London Bombings - New York Times

Judge Rules in London Bombing Case - Washington Post

U.K.: Colonial Secret Papers to be Made Public - BBC News

Russia: A Real Rivalry, or Political Theater? - Washington Post

Russia's Putin Proposes New Political Force - Associated Press

Russia Says Breakthrough Needed on U.S. Missiles - Reuters

Moscow Murders: Two Russian Nationalists Jailed - BBC News

Europe's Muslims Voice Doubt, Anger on Bin Laden - Reuters

South Asia

Police Block Maldives Protest over Food Prices - BBC News

This Week at War: Pakistan Loses the Upper Hand

Sat, 05/07/2011 - 12:49am
With bin Laden dead, Islamabad's leverage over Washington may also be gone.

Here is the latest edition of my column at Foreign Policy:

Topics include:

1) Bin Laden's death will change Washington -- and Pakistan won't like it

2) Are the Navy's big aircraft carriers too risky?

Bin Laden's death will change Washington -- and Pakistan won't like it

The day after U.S. special operations forces dramatically raided Osama bin Laden's compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, White House counterterrorism adviser John Brennan seemed to invite an investigation into whether elements of the Pakistani government were complicit in sheltering bin Laden. During a briefing, Brennan asserted, "I think it's inconceivable that bin Laden did not have a support system in the country that allowed him to remain there for an extended period of time. I am not going to speculate about what type of support he might have had on an official basis inside of Pakistan ... I think people are raising a number of questions, and understandably so."

But a day later, the administration seemed more eager to limit the damage the raid might cause to its relationship with Islamabad. The Pentagon and the Pakistani military issued a joint statement reaffirming their cooperation against terrorism. And according to the Wall Street Journal, senior administration officials urged restraint in blaming Pakistan's leaders for the embarrassing presence of bin Laden and his family within a few hundred meters of Pakistan's army academy and in the same neighborhood as many retired army officers.

From this perspective, the bin Laden raid is now a matter for historians to ponder: serious policymakers on both sides should focus on the future and on those practical interests shared by the United States and Pakistan. From this point of view, the raid didn't change the interests each side seeks or the leverage each side can deploy against the other and the United States still needs Pakistan's cooperation against terror networks that threaten the West. The U.S. also needs Pakistani support to move supply convoys through Pakistan to its forward operating bases in Afghanistan. For its part, Islamabad still seeks to maintain its connections to the West, to retain its diplomatic options, and to receive financial assistance from Washington and elsewhere. The death of bin Laden hasn't changed any of these facts.

This view may be correct for now but it is not likely to hold. First, with the bin Laden raid such a spectacular success, Obama will likely come under increasing pressure to repeat its success. Previous U.S. direct action incursions into Pakistan were met with harsh reactions from Islamabad, including the temporary shutdown of the supply pipeline through the Khyber Pass. But with the raid's success and the now nearly universal assumption that the Pakistani government is not a trustworthy partner, there will be growing political pressure inside the United States for Obama to treat Pakistan as an "open range" for military operations against terrorist targets.

Second, political pressure will mount on Obama to wind down the war in Afghanistan, something that the president seems —to accommodate. Bin Laden's death will deliver finality to many in the U.S. electorate. The sense of an end to the 9/11 story will clash with calls to continue the costly counterinsurgency campaign against the Taliban in Afghanistan's villages. Should Obama accede to an accelerated departure from Afghanistan, it would be another demonstration that the "post-Gates" era has arrived, a point my FP colleague Peter Feaver mentioned this week.

The more forces the United States withdraws from Afghanistan, the more leverage it gains over Pakistan; fewer forces in Afghanistan mean less reliance on the supply line through Pakistan. The bin Laden raid set a precedent for U.S. ground operations inside Pakistan, which Obama will now come under increasing pressure to repeat. It is true that the bin Laden raid didn't change for now the fundamental interests and leverage in the U.S.-Pakistani relationship. But the raid did set in motion political forces inside the United States that won't please Pakistan.

Are the Navy's big aircraft carriers too risky?

In my March 18 column, I discussed how China's rapidly growing inventories of ballistic and cruise missiles will threaten the existing U.S. defense strategy in the western Pacific. The latest issue of Proceedings, the journal of the United States Naval Institute, contained an article written by two Pentagon strategists that argued for the gradual phasing out of the Navy's large aircraft carrier fleet. The arguments against the supercarriers go back decades and regularly recur, especially when money gets tight. But this time, the authors argue, the missile threat is too serious to ignore. They argue for a new fleet design. And in doing so, they expose how some of the other defense-cut proposals recently floated in Washington were not thought through.

In "Twilight of the $UPERfluous Carrier," Navy Captain Henry Hendrix and retired Marine Lt. Col. J. Noel Williams explain why the growing anti-ship missile threat makes it too risky for the Navy to continue to rely on a handful of large aircraft carriers to control the sea and project power ashore. Hendrix and Williams instead recommend distributing naval air power over a larger number of smaller carriers which would reduce risk and complicate an adversary's planning. The authors call for retaining the current fleet of large carriers but not building any more. The existing carriers would gradually phase out over the next 50 years. To replace them, the authors recommend expanding purchases of an amphibious assault ship currently being produced for the Marine Corps. This ship is an aircraft carrier about half the size of the Navy's largest carriers, but at one-third the cost.

But in order to make the Hendrix and Williams proposal work, the Pentagon would have to make its full planned purchase of the troubled Marine Corps version of the Joint Strike Fighter, the F-35B, which does not need the large carrier's catapults to get into the air. The F-35B has been a favorite target lately of defense reformers and those hoping to make further cuts to the defense budget. Hendrix and Williams also foresee the Navy's future unmanned drone jets operating from the small carrier, as well as the full range of helicopters, Marines, special forces personnel, and more.

In addition to reducing risk and complicating an adversary's planning, employing a much larger fleet of small carriers would make it easier for the United States to maintain a forward presence, show the flag, engage with foreign partners, and deter conflicts. The small carriers can also perform a much greater variety of missions than can the large carriers. In the meantime, over the next 50 years the large aircraft carriers would transition to a mobile reserve, for contingencies requiring heavy power projection capability.

The Hendrix and Williams proposal is a sharp contrast to the other recently released defense reform proposals. Proposals from the president's Fiscal Commission, the Dominici-Rivlin panel, and Gordon Adams at the Stimson Center all go in the opposite direction. They would cancel the F-35B but apparently retain the Navy's plans for maintaining indefinitely its fleet of large aircraft carriers. The result of these plans would be the concentration of all of the Navy and Marine Corps strike aircraft at sea on a handful of increasingly vulnerable ships.

The other plans targeted the F-35, the Osprey aircraft, the Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle, and other programs that have been hobbled with cost overruns. By comparison, the Navy's large aircraft carrier program seems much less troubled. But picking program winners and losers by these criteria and not in the context of mission requirements, adversary capabilities, and combat risk could be a recipe for disaster when contractor efficiency is disconnected from combat requirements. Hendrix and Williams have proposed a fleet design with the future battlefield in mind. How the defense contractors measure up delivering that fleet, they leave to others.

Wanted Dead or Alive

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 7:52pm
Just added to SWJ's blog roll: Wanted Dead or Alive. This blog by Benjamin Runkle is drawn from his book Wanted Dead or Alive: Manhunts from Geronimo to bin Laden (forthcoming in July from Palgrave Macmillan - note that with current events the Amazon release date has been moved forward) - a history of strategic manhunts (defined as military campaigns in which U.S. forces are deployed abroad with the operational objective of killing one man). Ben provides links to and non-partisan commentary on current operations in the War on Terror.

Benjamin Runkle is a former paratrooper and presidential speechwriter with a Harvard PhD and a Bronze Star from Operation Iraqi Freedom. He has worked in the Department of Defense and on the National Security Council.

SWJ Editor Note (Dave Dilegge): I had the pleasure of reading the pre-editing draft of Wanted Dead or Alive and was captivated. Little did I know how much I did not know concerning U.S. military manhunts. Ben's book changed all that, it is a first-class contribution to our community of interest and practice.