by Matthew Ince

On Monday 2 May 2011 US President Obama announced the death of Osama Bin Laden following the success of a US operation conducted by an elite group of US Navy Seals in Abbottabad, Pakistan, where the Al-Qa'ida figurehead had been taking refuge. Despite the common belief that key members of Al-Qa'ida's central leadership had been in hiding within the federally administered tribal areas of Pakistan, the suburban compound where Bin Laden was discovered was in fact just 1 km away from Pakistan's Military Academy, close to the country's capital Islamabad. While this raises many questions about US trust for the intelligence arm of Pakistan's military, Pakistan's President Asif Ali Zardari was however quick to point out Pakistan's early assistance in identifying the Al-Qa'ida courier that had ultimately led to up to the elimination of Bin Laden. Irrespectively, Bin Laden's death has come as good news for many, particularly in the US, where countless groups of individuals will no doubt believe that justice has finally been served for the attacks of 9/11. It also comes against the backdrop of wider transition within the Middle East and a movement towards greater freedom and democracy; a process that has already begun to render Al-Qa'ida's rhetoric and doctrine increasingly irrelevant within many parts of the Muslim world.

Nevertheless, the events of 9/11, which saw the death of 2973 innocent civilians in New York and Washington DC, shattered international perceptions about US homeland invulnerability and have continued to set the agenda for US foreign policy in the years that have followed. This has certainly continued under President Obama, who since beginning his leadership has ordered multiple drone attacks within northern Waziristan and significantly increased US military presence within Afghanistan by more than 30,000 troops. Attempts to bring those responsible to justice and to ensure that such an atrocity can never again take place on US soil have however inadvertently weakened the position of the US upon the international stage in recent years and have led many to question the legal and ethical legitimacy of a number of their actions. In particular, costly military interventions into both Iraq and Afghanistan, human rights abuses in Guantanamo Bay and Abu Ghraib, and the existence of tensions between the political and military pillars of US decision making, which have at times been played out within the public domain; have cast doubt over the validity of America's claim to be the world's moral leader and have demonstrated that US military superiority can no longer guarantee success within modern warfare, where the tactics adopted by their adversaries are often increasingly asymmetric in their nature.

During this period Al-Qa'ida, the Bin Laden-inspired movement, has continued to gain momentum despite the fact that many members of its senior leadership have been forced into hiding. In this time, Al-Qa'ida operatives and their affiliates have achieved global reach and their actions have continued to inspire groups and individuals internationally. In particular the greatest success of Al-Qa'ida over the last decade has been the ability of a number of individuals working under the Al-Qa'ida umbrella to exploit a range of information-age technologies in order to find, groom, radicalise, train, equip and instruct a number of often young, western educated, alienated and disenfranchised individuals across the globe -- many of whom have then been prepared to conduct Al-Qa'ida-style activities within their own countries. However, the absence of both a telephone and internet connection in Bin Laden's final residence in Abbottabad suggests that, while crucial to the conception and mythology of the Al-Qa'ida movement, Bin Laden may have become increasingly disconnected from the outside world and was no longer himself directly engaging with Al-Qa'ida's global audience other than through the release of the occasion audio or visual message.

The death of Osama Bin Laden may have therefore come too late to significantly alter the state of the post-9/11 international security environment as the biggest threat that it now poses are not the actions of its senior leadership but the process of radicalisation that it continues to inspire within the Western world. Within countries such as the UK, this is reflected by the fact that threat levels emanating from international terrorism have continued to remain at 'severe' despite the death of Al-Qa'ida's most notorious figurehead. Furthermore, given Al-Qa'ida's success in baiting a disproportionate response to 9/11 from the US and its key partners, and when one considers the tirade of anti-American and anti-Western sentiments that these in-part controversial campaigns have created globally; one could ask what if anything will Bin Laden's death really change?

Bin Laden's Death: The Impact for Al-Qa'ida

Whilst the death of Bin Laden will have come as a blow to Al-Qa'ida's globally dispersed network of operatives and sympathisers, and may be interpreted as the West having gained the upper hand in the war on terror, the doctrine, structure, capabilities and aspirations of Al-Qa'ida central are likely to remain unaffected in the immediate period ahead.

Al-Qa'ida's ideology will most certainly not die with Bin Laden. For at least the foreseeable future it is likely that there will be individuals who reject the global spread of neo-liberalism and are prepared to take up the cause of Al-Qa'ida, believing the distorted rhetoric advocated by the likes of Bin Laden that Jihad is the 'individual duty' of all Muslims. It is also likely that the continued actions of the US and its key partners within the AfPak campaign will also continue to inspire and motivate a number of individuals to take up arms against Western forces for as long as the war on terror is being fought on their doorsteps. These so called 'accidental guerrillas', many of which have subsequently adopted the Al-Qa'ida name, are in most cases unrelated to Al-Qai'da's senior leadership; often only using the ideological rhetoric produced by the likes of Bin Laden as a point of reference and means of contextualising their own struggles. The ability of Al-Qa'ida's doctrine to transcend national boundaries and fit a multitude of often local grievances therefore means that it is likely to survive even without its chief advocate. To date many have autonomously adopted the Al-Qa'ida name and mind-set as a means of finding identity and direction in their plight against a variety of often perceived evils. It is probable that this trend will continue in the absence of Bin Laden and his death will no doubt further inspire a number of individuals who were previously not engaged in such activities.

The structure of Al-Qa'ida is also unlikely to be significantly impacted upon in the immediate future. In terms of organisation, many of Al-Qa'ida's operatives are dispersed, its leadership is decentralised and many of its 'terrorist cells' exist autonomously and operate throughout a large number of countries. At the core of the organisation Bin Laden's inner group may have traditionally co-ordinated various dispersed networked activities, but the majority of Al-Qa'ida's other member organisations have generally remained independent from any form of hierarchical structure, instead being unified through prescribed doctrine and ideological like-mindedness. As such it is therefore not surprising that for at least the immediate future, it is likely that the greatest threat to international security will continue to flow from groups such as Al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), who have little, if any, direct relation to Osama Bin Laden.

With regards to the longer-term future of Al'Qa'ida's organisational structure and there capabilities, there are indeed a number of questions to which the answers are uncertain at this point in time. For example, what will happen to Bin Laden's personal fortune, previously estimated to total some $300 million, which he amassed through family businesses and has used for years as capital for funding Al-Qa'ida operations around the globe? Furthermore, how would such a dramatic loss of assets affect Al-Qa'ida's ability to finance global Jihad in the decade ahead? The answer to such questions will probably become clearer in the coming months. Nevertheless, one the most significant impacts of Bid Laden's death for Al-Qa'ida will likely be the physical change of leadership which will now fall to Ayman al-Zawahiri who, ranked number two after Bin Laden on the US's most wanted list continues to have a $25 million bounty on his head. However, only time will tell whether al-Zawahiri will be able to display the same levels of charisma as his predecessor and whether the loss of Bin Laden may lead to a broader alteration of the narrative that Al-Qa'ida's senior leadership is likely to now disseminate through its communication networks.

It is likely that the death of Bin Laden will also fuel the Al-Qa'ida propaganda machine that will no doubt continue to broadcast to every corner of the world. Bin Laden will of course be hailed by his globally dispersed supporters as the martyr of all martyrs, while images of countless American's rejoicing at his death could be used to support the claims of radical extremists about the US and its partners. Nevertheless, the decision taken by the US to bury Bin Laden at sea and their refusal to release photographs of his dead body will help to minimise the material available to propagandists looking to exploit the death in order to depict the Western world in a negative light. Al-Qa'ida's primary goal of gaining political power so that it can implement its own agenda of social and political change within Muslim countries is also unlikely to change with their recent loss, and neither is their use of irregular and asymmetric tactics such as terrorism likely to disappear as their preferred means of promoting the Al-Qa'ida cause.

As such, the biggest concern facing the Western world in light of the death of Al-Qa'ida's patriarch, for the short term at least is likely to be a reinvigoration of efforts by violent radical extremists wishing to attack western interests both in the Muslim majority world and at home. Whether this is a process that is co-ordinated from Al-Qa'ida's central leadership, an improbable scenario, or whether the death of Bin Laden is enough within itself to inspire self-orchestrated action among Al-Qa'ida's globally dispersed network of supporters, it is unlikely that the death of Bin Laden will pass without their being a notable response from the movement that he inspired.

What Now?

For many American's and European's alike, the death of Bin Laden will indeed mark the end of an exhausting process that has caused excessive exasperation over the last decade. For the US psyche in particular, this may now provide closure for those who have lost loved ones in Iraq, Afghanistan, and particularly in the attacks of 9/11.

Notwithstanding this, once the initial dust has settled it is likely that the death of Bin Laden will have relatively little operational implications for current political-military campaigns being conducted by the US and its partners in Afghanistan. For ISAF, while many of those on the ground within Afghanistan will no doubt be enthused by this significant achievement in the battle against Al-Qa'ida, business as usual must remain the name of the game if the international community is to ensure that the insurgency does not regain the initiative. Sustaining current efforts to ensure that Afghanistan cannot again return to being a terrorist training ground or safe haven are therefore of particular importance at present; especially as Al-Qa'ida supporters and sympathisers within the region have already promised a surge in violent radical extremist activity by in response to the death of their fallen commander. Nevertheless, the death of Bin Laden will also serve to satisfy those who would advocate an early withdrawal of troops from the AfPak campaign in the coming years, as it most certainly represents a huge symbolic milestone in the in the war on terror to date and provides policy makers with hard evidence that one of the campaigns central objectives has now been fulfilled. However, more than anything the death of Bin Laden represents a political victory for the Obama Administration who can now enter their looming re-election campaign having delivered on the foremost foreign policy priority of his initial period in Government and that of the previous Bush Administration.

Matthew Ince currently works as a Project Manager at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies. He has an MA in Geopolitics and Grand Strategy and a BA (Hons) in International Relations from the University of Sussex.

We are going to take a break this weekend from the SWJ Roundup, so much to do and so little time and resources - that said, be looking for major changes at SWJ. We'll be back on Monday.

Here is the latest edition of my column at Foreign Policy:

Topics include:

1) The Pentagon's cyberwarfare doctrine begins to emerge

2) Does Obama have three more years for Afghanistan?

The Pentagon's cyberwarfare doctrine begins to emerge

This week, the Wall Street Journal revealed that Pentagon strategists are completing a document that outlines the government's cyberwarfare strategy. The Pentagon is expected to publish an unclassified version next month. According to the Journal, Pentagon strategists are prepared to declare that a sufficiently damaging cyberattack against the United States could be viewed as an "act of war," warranting equivalent retaliation. And that retaliation would not necessarily be a United States cyber-counterstrike. As one official put it, "If you shut down our power grid, maybe we will put a missile down one of your smokestacks." It is good that the government is finally establishing a doctrine for dealing with cyberwarfare. But strategists still must grapple with a challenging form of warfare that combines elements of Cold War-era deterrence theory and modern counterinsurgency doctrine.

According to the Washington Post, the Pentagon has developed a list of cyberweapons, including various worms and viruses, for use either in support of an existing military campaign or for use, with presidential approval, at the strategic level. According to the emerging doctrine, U.S. military commanders in existing war zones would have the authority to use cyberweapons to collect intelligence from adversary networks and support tactical operations in a broader military campaign. At the strategic level, presidential approval would be required for attacks against an adversary's industrial infrastructure like the Stuxnet worm against Iran's nuclear complex.

It is not so simple to find a neat divide between strategic cyberattacks requiring presidential approval and tactical attacks delegated to field commanders. The doctrine appears to reserve to the president the decision to attack portions of an adversary's civilian infrastructure. But in an ongoing military campaign, adversary military forces will use portions of the civilian infrastructure -- for example, the telecommunications system -- for tactical military purposes. This will certainly be true if the adversary is a non-state actor. A local commander's tactical use of cyberweapons could have wider strategic effects. As with all doctrine, the emerging cyberwarfare doctrine will undergo many changes after decision-makers encounter practical experience.

The Journal article highlighted the threat to use traditional military power in retaliation for a cyberattack that cripples U.S. infrastructure. Reserving the right to expand the boundaries of retaliation should not come as a surprise. Earlier this year, Gregory Schulte, the deputy assistant secretary of defense for space policy, discussed a similar retaliatory policy when he rolled out the National Security Space Strategy. As I discussed in a column at that time, that strategy seeks to use diplomacy and soft power to protect U.S. assets and interests in space. But if it became necessary, Schulte asserted a broad retaliatory policy to deter attacks on U.S. space interests. The emerging cyberwarfare doctrine appears to follow the same principle.

Announcing such a policy is one thing. Implementing it in a crisis won't be easy, as Cold War policymakers discovered to their discomfort. This week, anonymous hackers attempted to penetrate Lockheed-Martin's networks and apparently did succeed in cracking into Google's Gmail service. Having caused no deaths or widespread economic calamity, such attacks wouldn't seem to rise to the level requiring the kind of punitive retaliation discussed in the Wall Street Journal piece.

But these incidents expose some of the dilemmas cyberwarfare strategists will face. Who exactly were the attackers? The problem of attribution remains unsolved, at least to the degree necessary to convince world opinion that punitive and deadly U.S. retaliation would be legally and morally justified. The emerging U.S. cyberwarfare doctrine will presumably seek to hold governments responsible for the cyber attacks that originate from their territory. Such a policy is designed to elicit cooperative behavior from governments. But it creates opportunities for mischief by non-state actors and will set up an agonizing test of the U.S. government's retaliatory credibility.

Policymakers are tempted to view cyber warfare through the lens of deterrence theory. But as long as the attackers remain anonymous, cyberwarfare more closely resembles counterinsurgency -- a form of warfare where the U.S. government is still struggling to crack the code.

Does Obama have three more years for Afghanistan?

The Obama administration's plan for Afghanistan is to gradually shift responsibility for the country's security to Afghan forces, a task which is slated to be completed by the end of 2014. After that, the administration anticipates maintaining a much smaller U.S. force in the country to support the Afghan forces and to conduct counterterrorism operations in the region. President Obama and his advisers hope to show a clear beginning of this transition this summer with a more-than-token withdrawal of U.S. combat forces.

But this timeline implies at least three more years of fighting in Afghanistan for U.S. troops, on top of the decade they have already spent there. In the past few weeks, evidence of the war's political friction has appeared in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and inside the United States. Military commanders want to stick to the plan for an orderly transition to Afghan responsibility, but whether that three-year timeline can survive is now in question.

The raid on Osama bin Laden's compound in Abbottabad has sent U.S.-Pakistani relations to a new low. In May, Pakistan ejected 20 percent of the U.S. Special Forces soldiers that are training its Frontier Corps. Last week, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Joint Chiefs Chairman Adm. Michael Mullen made yet another trip to Islamabad in an effort to patch up relations. However, the visit revealed no news regarding the Afghan Taliban sanctuaries on Pakistani territory, which are widely believed to be under the protection of Pakistan's intelligence services.

On May 28, a U.S. airstrike on Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan who had ambushed a U.S. Marine patrol killed 14 civilians, including 11 children, after the insurgents took cover inside a nearby compound and continued to fire on the Marines. In response, President Hamid Karzai demanded an end to all coalition air attacks on Afghan homes, declaring that this was his "last" warning on the issue of coalition-inflicted civilian deaths. Asserting that coalition troops were on the verge of becoming occupiers instead of allies, Karzai warned that "history shows what Afghans do with trespassers and with occupiers."

The war's popularity inside the United States may be fading as fast as Karzai's tolerance. The House of Representatives barely rejected -- 204 to 215 -- an amendment that would have required the administration to establish a faster timeline to exit Afghanistan. Twenty-six Republicans and all but eight Democrats voted for the measure. According to the Washington Post, a group of civilian advisers to Obama will soon make the argument that the financial cost of the Afghan war -- $113 billion this fiscal year and $107 billion next year -- is too much when the goals and the risks of obtaining those goals are considered. To these advisers, spending on Afghan operations is a ripe target for fast budget savings.

Of course, none of these developments are really new. Rather, they are new eruptions of old syndromes. Leaders on both sides undoubtedly agree that the U.S.-Pakistani relationship is an unnatural coupling, which has always bounced from crisis to crisis. Karzai has always chafed at the foreign military presence in his country and the treatment he receives from U.S. officials. And it should be no surprise to see congressmen vote against a long war, especially when the vote won't count for anything.

The danger isn't that Pakistan will completely sever relations with the United States, that Karzai will walk out of his palace and join up with Mullah Omar in Quetta, or that Congress will cut off funding for the war. The real danger is to the enthusiasm and will required by all actors to execute Obama's transition plan. Karzai's diminishing confidence in the coalition and its tactics could undercut the effort to recruit motivated and effective Afghan soldiers and police, the real "exit strategy" for the coalition. Deepened Pakistani intransigence over the Afghan Taliban would hobble the effort to pacify the Pashtun portion of Afghanistan. The result would be deterioration rather than an orderly transition to Afghan control.

Obama is counting on holding all of the players together for three more years of combat. He may be counting on too much.

Afghanistan

Mullen: Still Waiting on Afghan Drawdown Plan from Petraeus - S&S

Mullen: Pace of Afghanistan Withdrawal Undecided - AP

Costs 'Front-and-Center' for Afghan Drawdown - DODB

Taliban, al Qaeda Pursue Peace Deals - WT

Can Development Win a Counterinsurgency? - Slate

NATO to Build on Lessons of Afghanistan for Future - AFPS

Making Police Recruits Competent is Uphill Struggle - S&S

Petraeus Vows to Keep Civilian Deaths to Minimum - AP

Rodriguez: Afghans Rise Above Taliban's Desperation - AFPS

Combined Force Captures al-Qaida Operative - AFPS

A Poppy Harvest in Helmand, Undeterred - NYT

Success Worth Paying for in Afghanistan - WP opinion

Pakistan

US Military Cuts in Pakistan 'Significant' - BBC

Mullen: Long-term Relationship Vital Between US, Pakistan - AFPS

Intense Fighting on Pakistan-Afghan Border - WP

Pakistani Soldiers Killed in Border Fighting - NYT

Pakistan Gov't Issues Demarche Over Attack - AP

Pakistan Conveys Concern to Kabul After Militant Raid - Reuters

Syria

Syrian Violence Tests US - WSJ

Attack on Central Town of Rastan 'Kills 15' - BBC

Syrian Forces Kill 13 in Besieged Town - Reuters

New Syria Protest Center Sees Unrelenting Attacks - AP

Opposition Calls for Assad's Ouster - WP

Syria's Exiled Opposition Calls on Assad to Resign - Reuters

Libya

House Sets Votes on Resolutions Critical of US Role in Libya - NYT

House GOP Crafts Bill on US Role in Libya - AP

Libya Says Will Replace Energy Chief Who Defected - Reuters

Libya Rebels Are Not Revising Oil Deals - Reuters

For Gaddafi, a Home on St. Helena - WP opinion

Yemen

Yemen's Chaos is Good NHews for Al Qaeda - LAT

Fighting in Yemen Capital Threatens Airport - NYT

Elite Yemeni Families at Center of Clashes - WP

'Thousands' of Tribesmen March on Sanaa - BBC

Yemen Slides Toward All-Out Fight for Power - AP

Yemen Fighting Intensifies, Envoy Brennan in Talks - Reuters

Iraq

Sunni Fears Grow Over Sadr's Resurgence - WP

Iraq Arrests Seen as Effort to Squelch More Protests - NYT

State Blocks Auditor from Iraq Police Training - WT

9 Killed in Series of Explosions in Western Iraq - AP

DOD Works Toward Successful Transition in Iraq - AFPS

Renovation Reality: War Puts Five-Star Dreams on Hold - NYT

Israel / Palestinians

France Enters the Palestinians' Run to September - LAT

French Minister Bids to Revive Middle East Talks - Reuters

Netanyahu: Israel Will Prevent Another Border Breach - Reuters

Ex-Israeli Spymaster Takes Swipe at Netanyahu - AP

Obama's Commitment to Israel - WP opinion

Middle East / North Africa

Latest Developments in Arab World's Unrest - AP

Bahrain Wary of Protests Before Formula One Ruling - Reuters

270 Migrants Are Missing After Accident Off Tunisia - NYT

More than 200 Migrants 'Missing off Tunisia Coast' - BBC

Moroccan Dies of Wounds Sustained in Protests - AP

UN: Qatar Deports Libyan Rape Victim - WP

Libyan Woman Claiming Rape Deported From Qatar - AP

Egypt and the Arab Fall - LAT opinion

Terrorism

Terrorists Target Wrong Company for Drone Revenge - DR

Cyber War

Cyberdefenses Not Ready to Handle 'Electronic Pearl Harbor' - S&S

E-Mail Fraud Hides Behind Friendly Face - NYT

COIN

Can Development Win a Counterinsurgency? - Slate

US Department of Defense

'Rumsfeld Model' for Senior Officer Selection - RAND

Team Building Drove President's Choices, Gates Says - AFPS

Army Judges Weigh Military Trials for Civilians - AP

F-35 JSF Becoming a Target for Cost Cutters - Politico

United States

Nations Want Better Relations with US, Gates Says - AFPS

World

Global War on Drugs a Failure, High-Level Panel Says - Reuters

Africa

Sudan: Nearly 100 Civilians Killed in Abyei, Official Says - Reuters

Civilians Dead in South Sudan Battle - AP

South Africa and Mozambique Join Forces to Fight Piracy - BBC

South Africa: Ex-spy Chief Kasrils Against Secrecy Bill - BBC

Protests in S. Africa Against Xenophobia - BBC

Somalia: Militants Say Suicide Bomber Was Somali-American - AP

Burundi Peacekeepers in Somalia 'Unpaid' - BBC

Ivory Coast President's Forces Accused of Killings - AP

Pro-Ouattara Troops Executed Unarmed Ivorians - Reuters

Americas

Debate Rises Over Death Toll in Mexico Drug War - AP

Mexican Teens Turn to Kidnapping in Drug War City - Reuters

Chavez: We Won't Tolerate Rebels in Venezuela - AP

Brazil Launches Anti-poverty Plan - BBC

Another Rural Activist Killed in Amazon Region - AP

Asia Pacific

China Rejects Gmail Spying Claims - BBC

China Says it's Not Behind Google Email Hacking - AP

Clinton: FBI to Probe China Email Hacking Charges - AP

E-Mail Fraud Hides Behind Friendly Face - NYT

China Closes Festival That Alluded to Jailed Artist - NYT

US Human Rights Envoy Invited Back to North Korea - AP

Japan Prime Minister Survives No-Confidence Vote - NYT

Japan's Prime Minister Survives Vote - WP

Japan PM Survives With Offer to Quit Once Crisis Overcome - Reuters

Europe

Mladic Faces Hague Court on Bosnia Genocide Charges - Reuters

Mladic May Delay Plea to War Crimes Tribunal - Reuters

On the Run, Mladic's World Slowly Shrank - Reuters

Mladic Arrest Revives Dutch Angst Over Srebrenica - Reuters

France's Futuristic "Pentagon" to Open in 2014 - Reuters

Turkey's Opposition Tries to Turn the AK Party Tide - Reuters

E. Coli Outbreak Reaches Deadliest on Record - Bloomberg

E. Coli Strain Was Previously Unknown, Official Says - NYT

South Asia

With Yoga and Fasting, Graft Fighters Shake India - NYT

In India, Keeping Tabs on Politicians - WP

Sri Lankan Military Boss Open to War Crimes Probe - ANN

Sri Lanka Offers to Probe 'Specific' War Crime Claims - TNA

Afghanistan

Petraeus: US Still Needed in Afghanistan - USAT

Afghans Debate Foreign Troop Presence - NYT

Marines Wrestle with Exasperation in Battle for Hearts and Minds - S&S

Taliban Aim to Derail Afghan Security Transfer - NYT

General Sees Signs Afghan Insurgents Disillusioned - AP

Afghan Civil Unrest Threatening Peace Effort - AP

Clinton: NATO Committed to Reducing Afghan Civilian Deaths - VOA

NATO: Arrests Made in Deadly North Afghan Bombing - AP

Winter Gains Position Coalition Forces for July Transition - AFPS

Regional Support Links Commands in Afghanistan - AFPS

Bravery Medal for Gurkha Who Fought Taliban - BBC

Polish Troops Cleared in Afghan Civilians' Deaths - AP

In Kabul's Only Synagogue, Merchants Open Up Shop - Reuters

Pakistan

US, Pakistan Partnership on Mend - AP

Pakistan's Intelligence Agency Denies Role in Journalist's Murder - VOA

Spy Agency Denies Role in Journalist's Killing - NYT

Agency Denies Role in Reporter's Death - WP

Pakistan ISI Denies Murder Claims - BBC

Pakistan Spy Agency Denies Role in Killing - AP

Pakistan Reports Militant Attack at Afghan Border Checkpoint - VOA

Afghan Militants Attack on Border With Pakistan - NYT

Militants Ambush Pakistan Troops in Upper Dir - BBC

Police: 23 Pakistani Troops Die in Border Attack - AP

Bin Laden's Trusted Confidante Identified - AP

Syed Saleem Shahzad's Courage - NYT editorial

Syria

Syrian Dissidents Reject Government Amnesty Offer - VOA

Children Are Among Casualties of Syrian Military Raids - NYT

Syrian Protesters Try to Unite - WP

Syrian Inquiry Into Boy's Death - BBC

Images of Dead Children Fan Syria's Protests - AP

Syrian Forces Shell Town Kill 41, Lawyer Says - Reuters

Australia Wants Syrian President to Stand Trial - AP

The Slaughter in Syria - WP editorial

Libya

Libyan Rebels Don't Control Their Fight - WP

Hotel Blast in Banghazi Is Attributed to Loyalist of Qaddafi - NYT

Blast Hits Hotel in Libya's Rebel-Held Benghazi - Reuters

Libya's Oil Chief Ghanem Defects, in Rome Now - Reuters

Sombre Libyans Contemplate Gaddafi's Future - Reuters

NATO Extends Libya Mission - VOA

NATO Hopes for Libya Solution Within Four Months - Reuters

House Puts Off Vote on Libya Resolution - AP

UN: War Crimes by Both Sides in Libya - BBC

UN Panel Finds Libya Forces Committed War Crimes - AP

Algerian Minister Says Al-Qaida Gets Libyan Arms - AP

Yemen

Yemen Crisis Worsens as Tribal Fighters Battle Presidential Loyalists - VOA

Fighting Spreads in Yemen, Raising Fear of Civil War - NYT

Yemen: Street Battles in Sanaa 'Kill 39' - BBC

41 Killed in Deadly Yemen Street Battles - AP

Egypt

Raucous Crowd Confronts Egypt Military Leaders - LAT

Trial for Mubarak Set for August - AP

Mubarak Set to Go on Trial August 3 - Reuters

Egypt Limits Crossings at Gaza Border - WP

When the Nile Runs Dry - NYT opinion

Israel / Palestinians

Dispute Grows as Egyptian Gas Is Still Not Flowing to Israel - NYT

Open Border at Gaza Is Not So Open, Palestinians Find - NYT

Closing Gaza Gap, Israel Posts Iron Dome in Sderot - Reuters

Palestinians Mobilizing Support for Statehood - AP

Middle East / North Africa

Iraq: Wedding Attack Kills 3 South of Baghdad - AP

Iran Activist Dies After Funeral Scuffle - Reuters

Bahrain Ends Martial Law But Renews Crackdown on Protests - NYT

Bahrain Lifts Emergency Law, Military Trials Press On - Reuters

Latest Developments in Arab World's Unrest - AP

U.S. Department of Defense

Gates: Careful Revamp of US National Security Team - AP

Advisers Urge Military to Rely Less on Drones, More on Expertise - WT

Dempsey: US Military Must Adapt to 'Viral' Events - DN

Army Chief Discusses Future of Training - AFPS

Face of Defense: Marine, Canine Make a Good Team - AFPS

Civilian Appeals Conviction by Military Court - AP

United States

US to Boycott World Racism Conference at UN - AP

400,000 Jobs for Vets in Two Years - AFT

The Blurring of CIA and Military - WP opinion

World

Panel Urges Non-criminal Approach to World Drug Policy - LAT

Global War on Drugs Has 'Failed' Say Former Leaders - BBC

Africa

US Urges Immediate North-South Sudan Talks on Abyei Crisis - VOA

Ethiopia Offers Peacekeepers for Abyei in Sudan - BBC

Many Civilians Have Been Killed in Disputed Region of Sudan - NYT

Nigeria Attacks Claimed by Islamist Sect Boko Haram - BBC

New Ivory Coast Government Excludes Gbagbo's Party - AP

When the Nile Runs Dry - NYT opinion

Americas

Mexico Border: National Guard Deployment May Be Extended - AP

Mexico Charges 73 in Tamaulipas Mass Grave Deaths - AP

Top FARC Rebel From Colombia Captured in Venezuela - AP

Honduras Readmitted to OAS After Coup - Reuters

Peru Faces Divisive Election Cliffhanger - Reuters

Brazil, After a Long Battle, Approves an Amazon Dam - NYT

Asia Pacific

Gates Talks of Boosting Asian Security Despite Budget Cuts - NYT

Gates Predicts Stability in US Commitment to the Pacific - VOA

Gates: US 'Not Keen to Hold Down China' - BBC

Adm Willard 'Concerned' About S. China Sea Tensions - Bloomberg

Relax: China's First Aircraft Carrier is a Piece of Junk - DR

China Extends Hand and Fist To Protesters - NYT

Ambitious Plan for China's Water Crisis Spurs Concern - NYT

Chinese Hackers Hit Hundreds of Gmail Accounts - WP

Google Says Chinese Hackers Broke into Gmail - AP

China to Name Bishop Without Pope Approval - AP

North Korea Rejects South's Proposal for Summits - AP

Japan's Opposition Calls for PM's Ouster - WP

Japan's Prime Minister Naoto Kan Survives No-Confidence Motion - AP

Japan PM Kan Set to Resign in Autumn or Later - Reuters

Clan Leader in Philippines Pleads Not Guilty to 2009 Massacre - NYT

Europe

Mladic to Face Hague War Crimes Tribunal Friday - VOA

'Cooperative' Mladic to Face Tribunal on Friday - Reuters

Court Seeks Speedier Mladic Trial - BBC

3 Men Convicted of Killing Opponent of Chechnya's Leader - NYT

Chechens Guilty Over Vienna Murder - BBC

Russian Sentenced to Life for Murdering Chechen - AP

Tough Choices in Europe Over Greece - WP

Mexican Cartel Tactical Notes: No 2. Ambush/Targeted Killing of US Law Enforcement Officer (San Antonio, Texas)

Mexican cartel linkages to this incident are currently being investigated but have not been confirmed by US Law Enforcement

Who: Sergeant Kenneth Vann, 48, Bexar County Sheriff's, Texas.

What: Ambush-Targeted Killing of US Law Enforcement Officer.

When: About 2:00 AM Saturday 28 May 2011.

Where: While in uniform, sitting in his marked patrol car at a traffic light at Loop 410 and Rigsby Road (on San Antonio's southeast side) on his way to a call.

Why: Unknown. Initial speculation via Sheriff Amadeo Ortiz is that the officer was randomly targeted because he was a governmental representative/symbol of authority. No motive has been established and no one has claimed credit.

Synopsis: Hasty overview; The officer was waiting at a traffic light. The flashing lights/siren were not turned on in the patrol car and the officer was obeying traffic laws. A small white car is thought to have pulled up next to Sgt. Vann's vehicle. A gunman then fired an estimated 28 rounds via a semi-automatic weapon— possibly an AK-47 assault rifle—at the officer in two bursts. Sgt. Vann was pronounced dead at the scene. Suspect(s) are still at large.

Update: On Tuesday, a sheriff's spokesman said investigators were looking for a royal blue Ford F-150 pickup truck that left the intersection where the incident took place. The small white car has been found and is being processed by forensics. Reward of $127,000.00 now offered for the arrest of those responsible; More than 300 officers from 10 law enforcement agencies—armed with about 1,300 warrants— were deployed to the streets of San Antonio on Tuesday, May 31 in order to get leads concerning this incident.

Tactical Analysis: Derived from news photos of the crime scene and satellite imagery. Kill zone was established at a traffic signal going forward toward I-410 bridges underpass; channeled avenue of approach/confined terrain on Rigsby Road going forward. Location is also well suited for E&E (escape and evasion) of engaging forces (I-410 and 87). The targeted killing appears to have occurred via shots entering the passenger side of the patrol vehicle that struck the officer on the right side of his body. This places the law enforcement officer at an immediate tactical disadvantage in his response since he would be required to shoot through the passenger side of his vehicle to return fire. The targeted killing appears to have been conducted in a tactically proficient manner. TTPs/Weaponry/ Ford F-150 pickup truck (of interest) appears consistent with cartel operations in Northern Mexico.

Significance: Officer Safety Issues; Reward Amount/Mass Warrant Approach; Psychological Warfare/Insurgent Tactics (If determined to have cartel linkages); Cartel Violence Spillover (If determined to have cartel linkages).

Source(s):

"Search Continues For Sergeant's Killer - Investigators Working Full-Time To Find Sgt. Kenneth Vann's Killer" - Tim Gerber, KSAT 12 News, Wednesday, June 1, 2011

"Officers Hope Warrant Roundup Leads To Info In Sergeant's Death: 10 Agencies Join Efforts In Warrant Roundup" - David Sears, KSAT 12 News, Tuesday, May 31, 2011

"Reward For Info On Vann's Death Raised To $127K: FBI Offering $50,000, In Addition To $77,000 Already Raised" - KSAT 12 News, Tuesday, May 31, 2011 (UPDATED: June 1, 2011)

"Mexican Drug Link Probed in Ambush Murder of Texas Lawman" - Borderland Beat, Tuesday, May 31, 2011 | Borderland Beat Reporter Ovemex. Original Reuters Link

"Slain Sergeant's Widow Speaks Out: Yvonne Vann Asks For Public's Help Solving Husband's Slaying" - Jessie Degollado, KSAT 12 News, Monday, May 30, 2011

"Suspect Who Gunned Down Deputy Remains At-Large: Sgt. Kenneth Vann Shot, Killed Early Saturday Morning" - Simon Gutierrez, KSAT 12 News, Sunday, May 29, 2011

"Bexar County Deputy Slain in 'Senseless' Ambush" (See crime scene photos/video) - Associated Press, WFAA.com, May 28, 2011

Mexican cartel linkages to this incident are currently being investigated but have not been confirmed by US Law Enforcement

Dr. Robert J. Bunker

The US Army COIN Center is hosting Dr. Geoff Demarest of the US Army Foreign Military Studies Office and author of the recently published book, Winning Insurgent War. He will be discussing important aspects of defeating insurgents including the legitimate use of violence in winning. His brief is tomorrow, Thursday, 2 June 2011, at 10:00 CDT (1100 EST, 15:00 ZULU).

Those interested in attending may view the meeting online at and participate via Defense Connect Online (DCO) as a guest. Remote attendees will be able to ask questions and view the slides through the software.