Small Wars Journal

Book Review: Power and Policy in Syria

Fri, 06/10/2011 - 8:28am
Power and Policy in Syria: The Intelligence Services, Foreign Relations, and Democracy in the Modern Middle East

by Radwan Ziadeh.

Published by I.B. Tauris, New York. 219 pages, 2011.

Reviewed by CDR Youssef Aboul-Enein, MSC, USN

Radwan Ziadeh is an academic who teaches at Harvard and George Washington University. His current book is a nuanced look at the methods by which the current Syrian regime maintains a monopoly hold on power. The book opens with Syrian independence from French colonial rule in 1946. It discusses the stressors of that period that led to the creation of more radical political parties, successive government collapses (in 1954 four governments were formed and collapsed, and the grip of ideological thinking as well as dogmatism to cope with this instability. Ziadeh offers an interesting observation of Syrian political history, dividing its period into three republics (formation in 1946, unification with Egypt in 1958, and the revolutionary state 1963 to the present). The author is able to tie together strands of political history from an Arab and Syrian perspective, which makes the volume useful for Foreign Area Officer, and those analyzing Syria within the intelligence community and United States Central Command. It lays out the birth and evolution of the different organs of the security apparatus, which now exceeds 700,000 operatives in 2004.

The book contains a chapter dissecting the method by which the late dictator Hafez al-Asad engineered the succession of his son the current dictator Bashar al-Asad. The chapter entitled, "The challenge of Political Islam," discusses the reactionary history of Islamist politics that have been the result of the unique nature of the Syrian repressive state. The book does presuppose some basic knowledge of the tensions underneath this soup of anger and dissent, chiefly that a Shiite Muslim sect, the Alawis, considered heretical by mainstream Shiites, dominates a Sunni Muslim majority.

There were some errors in the book that only a consummate student of Syria and Lebanon could detect, for instance it refers to Lebanese Major General Imad Aoun, when it should be Michel Aoun, a controversial figure who fought Christian co-religionists, sided with Iraq's former dictator Saddam Hussein, and who has to be ousted from power in 1990. There were other editorial errors such as a description of the United Arab Republic (1958-1961) consisting of Egypt in the North and Syria in the South, it is supposed to be the reverse. A criticism of the book is that it appears to be more Arab centric, and it would have been useful for the author to conduct a deeper exploration of the ties between the current Syrian regime and Iran. In fairness, the book went to print before the Arab Spring, but it is my hope that Ziadeh will write a book exploring the tectonic changes of the Middle East generally and Syria specifically of the last few months.

Commander Aboul-Enein is Adjunct Islamic Studies Chair at the Industrial College of the Armed Forces. He is author of "Militant Islamist Ideology: Understanding the Global Threat," (Naval Institute Press, 2010). Commander Aboul-Enein is working on a second book exploring the writings of the late Ali al-Wardi, the Father of Iraqi sociology and modern political history.

10 June SWJ Roundup

Fri, 06/10/2011 - 6:31am
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Afghanistan

NATO Chief Predicts Afghans Will Be In Control by 2014 - VOA

NATO: Start of Afghan Transition on Track for July - Reuters

Obama Formally Nominates Allen for Afghanistan Post - AFPS

Filling Classes With Learning, Not Fears - NYT

Panetta Demurs on Troop Drawdown in Afghanistan - NYT

Panetta Backs Afghan Drawdown Plans During Confirmation Hearing - S&S

Some Afghans Fear Early US Departure - VOA

Mullen Praises Germany's Performance in Afghanistan - AFPS

Hamid Karzai Heading for Pakistan Talks - BBC

Suicide Bomber Kills 4 in Northern Afghanistan - AP

Afghan Suicide Blast Kills Kunduz Policemen - BBC

Pakistan

Pakistan's Kayani: Divert US Aid to Civilians - WP

Pakistan Army Chief Says US Aid Should be Diverted - AP

Update: Deadly Attack on Pakistan Security Checkpoint - BBC

Pakistan Orders an Inquiry After Troops Kill a Teenager - NYT

Syria

Increasing Number of Syrians Flee to Turkey - VOA

Syrians Flee to Turkey to Escape Assault - WP

Syrian Forces Begin Push Against Dissidents on Turkish Border - NYT

Syrian Army 'Moves on Jisr al-Shughour' - BBC

Syrian Army Begins Operations in Northern Town - AP

UN Nuclear Watchdog Refers Syria to Security Council - BBC

Libya

New Airstrikes Target Libyan Capital - VOA

New Round of NATO Strikes Hits Tripoli Outskirts - AP

White House: Gadhafi Government's Days Are Numbered - VOA

NATO Official: Gadhafi a Legitimate Target - CNN

World Powers Agree on Aid Package for Libyan Rebels - VOA

Libya Rebels to Receive Huge Cash Infusion - WP

$1 Billion Is Pledged to Support Libya Rebels - NYT

Panetta Says Libya Rebel Council May Include Extremists - LAT

China Plays Mediator to Libya's Fighting Factions - VOA

"US Embassy Tripoli.", in DC - WP

Yemen

With President Absent, Yemen Battles Islamist Militants - VOA

Saleh's Relatives Retain Much Power in Yemen - WP

Egypt

Egypt's Economy Slows to a Crawl; Revolt Is Tested - NYT

Islamist Salafist Movement Vies for Political Power - WP

Iraq

In Iraq, Military Still Seen as Dysfunctional - WP

Iraq Will Ask US Troops to Stay Post-2011, Says Panetta - BBC

Iraq Shiite Group Claims Attack on US Troops - AP

Iran

US Sanctions Iranian Police for Rights Abuses - Reuters

Bahrian

Cultivating a Prince to Coax an Ally to Change - NYT

Middle East / North Africa

How Tyrants Endure - NYT opinion

Panetta Confirmation Hearing

Senate Panel Questions Panetta on Troop Withdrawals, Budget Cuts - VOA

Panetta Faces No Major Hurdles to Confirmation - WP

Panetta Vows to Put National Security, Troops First - AFPS

Defeating al-Qaida Requires Continued Pressure, Panetta Says - AFPS

Panetta Backs Afghan Drawdown Plans During Confirmation Hearing - S&S

Panetta Demurs on Troop Drawdown in Afghanistan - NYT

Panetta Says Libya Rebel Council May Include Extremists - LAT

US Department of Defense

Stanley Draws From Military Experience as Civilian Leader - AFPS

Ex-NSA Official Avoids Jail Time - WP

Ex-NSA Aide Gains Plea Deal in Leak Case; Setback to US - NYT

US Reaches Plea Deal in Classified Leaks Case - AP

NATO

Gates Pleased with Progress on Afghanistan, NATO Reform - AFPS

United States

Chicago: Split Verdicts for Man Accused of Terrorism - NYT

Chicago: Rana Convicted of Aiding Mumbai Attack Group - BBC

Director of National Counterterrorism Center Resigning - NYT

Breaking the War Powers Stalemate - WP opinion

International Monetary Fund

France's Lagarde Still Favourite as IMF Nominations Due - BBC

Africa

Nigeria Gunmen Kidnap Volunteers in Delta Oil Region - BBC

UN Accuses New Ivory Coast Army - BBC

Somalia Extends Government; Premier Fired - NYT

Somali Crisis: President Ahmed and Speaker Aden in Deal - BBC

Americas

Mexico Drugs War: Corruption Grows on US Border - BBC

21 Bodies Found in Mexican President's Home Town - AP

Colombia Bid to Rescue Kidnapped Chinese Oil Workers - BBC

Guatemala Disappearance: Former Police Chief Arrested - BBC

US Delegation Meets With American Jailed in Cuba - AP

Peru's Crossroads - WP editorial

Asia Pacific

China Appears to Be Moving to Halt Grass-Roots Candidates - NYT

China 'Cable Cutting' Angers Vietnam in Spratlys Row - BBC

Vietnam Plans Live-Fire Drill After China Dispute - AP

China Launches Economic Projects in North Korea - LAT

US: China Worried by Disruption in Korean Talks - AP

Europe

Georgia Threatens To Abandon Russia Talks - NYT

Russia Halves Belarus Power Supply Over Unpaid Bills - BBC

EU Commission to Give Green Light to Croatia - AP

Spain Nabs 3 Suspected of Global Cyber Attacks - AP

South Asia

India Maoists Kill 10 Police in Chhattisgarh Mine Blast - BBC

Obama Formally Nominates Allen for Afghanistan Post

Thu, 06/09/2011 - 9:34pm
Obama Formally Nominates Allen for Afghanistan Post - American Forces Press Service.

WASHINGTON, June 9, 2011 -- President Barack Obama has formally nominated Marine Corps Lt. Gen. John R. Allen to receive a fourth star and serve as the next commander of International Security Assistance Force and U.S. Forces Afghanistan, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates announced today.

Obama also nominated Army Lt. Gen. Curtis M. Scaparrotti, commander of 1st Corps, Fort Lewis and Joint Base Lewis-McChord, Wash., to also serve as deputy ISAF and U.S. Forces Afghanistan commander and as commander of ISAF Joint Command, Gates announced.

The president announced at the White House April 28 that he intended to name Allen the first Marine to command all U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan. Allen served as deputy commander of U.S. Central Command until June 2, when he became special assistant to Navy Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

If the Senate confirms his nomination, Allen would replace the retiring Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, whom Obama has nominated to become the next CIA director. Current CIA director Leon E. Panetta is testifying in his confirmation hearing today to become the next defense secretary after Gates retires June 30.

9 June SWJ Roundup

Thu, 06/09/2011 - 3:42am
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Afghanistan

Obama, Karzai Discuss Afghan Transition - VOA

US Senate Panel Questions Success of Nation-Building in Afghanistan - VOA

Amb. Crocker Warns of Risk if the US Abandons Afghanistan - NYT

Progress in Afghanistan Called Hard But Not 'Hopeless' - WP

Amb. Crocker: Afghans to Need Support after US Pullout - WT

Ambassador Nominee Crocker Says Afghanistan Not Hopeless - AP

Gates: US Wants 'Joint Bases' in Afghanistan - WP

What We're Buying in Afghanistan - TNY

Haqqani Terrorists Threaten US Withdrawal from Afghanistan - WT

Pakistan Militant Group Vows to Escalate Fight in Afghanistan - Reuters

Afghan Official: 9 Killed in Wedding Party Attack - AP

Army Seeks Social Media Gurus to Save Afghan War - DR

Low Hopes for Afghanistan - WP opinion

Testing the Afghan Exit Ramps - WP opinion

Pakistan

Suspected US Missile Strikes Kill at Least 20 in Pakistani Tribal Region - VOA

US Drone 'Kills 15' in Pakistan - BBC

Clash Kills 8 Pakistan Troops, 10 Militants - AP

Syria

International Community Turns Up Pressure on Syria - VOA

New Move to Condemn Syria in UN - NYT

Western Powers Push UN Syria Vote - BBC

UN Considers Revised Condemnation of Syria - AP

Reports of Syrian Defections Signal Further Splits - VOA

Syrians Flee to Turkey, Telling of Gunmen Attacking Protesters - NYT

Hundreds in Syria Flee to Turkey, Fearing Army Assault - BBC

Syrian Forces Converge on Rebellious Northern Town - AP

Syrian Envoy to France Denies Resignation - NYT

Syrian Ambassador to France Denies Resigning - BBC

In Syria, the Death of Tourism - WP

Libya

Silence in Tripoli after Bombardment - WP

NATO Plans for Libya Without Gadhafi - VOA

Western and Arab Talks to Focus on Libya 'End-Game' - Reuters

NATO Endorses Decision to Extend Libya Operation - AFPS

Gates Calls for More NATO Allies to Join Air Campaign - LAT

Gates Calls on NATO Allies to Do More in Libya - AFPS

Gates Presses US Allies to do More Against Libya - AP

Senators Unveil Tough Resolution on Libya - AP

White House Says it Will Answer Congress on Libya - AP

Gadhafi Forces Attack Libyan Port City of Misrata - VOA

Gaddafi Investigated over Use of Rape as Weapon - BBC

Gadhafi Investigated Over Use of Drugs for Rapes - AP

Anticipation in Tripoli as Net Tightens on Gaddafi - Reuters

Yemen

US Is Intensifying Secret Campaign of Yemen Airstrikes - NYT

Militants Said to Gain Ground in South Yemen - LAT

Yemeni Activists Threaten to Launch Presidential Council - WP

Yemen's Opposition Aims To Strip President of Power - NYT

Yemen's Interim Leader Urged to Start Power Transition - VOA

Yemeni Parties Deny Talks Report - BBC

Tribesmen Seize Part of Yemen's 2nd Biggest City - AP

Fighting Turns Southern Yemen Town Into 'Hell' - Reuters

Preventing Chaos in Yemen - WP editorial

Iraq

US Soldier Killed on Patrol in Iraq - WP

Iran

Iran to Move its Most Sensitive Nuclear Equipment to Bunker - WP

Iran Says It Will Speed Up Uranium Enrichment - NYT

Iran to Triple Higher-Enriched Uranium Production - VOA

Revolutionary Guard Praises Idea of Nuke Testing - AP

EU Accuses Iran of Deepening Nuclear 'Defiance' - Reuters

Middle East / North Africa

In Saudi Arabia, Royal Funds Buy Peace for Now - NYT

World Bank Seeks to Curb North Africa Handouts - Reuters

Mullen: US, Egypt Maintain Strong Military Bond - AFPS

Tunisia Postpones Election, Possibly Aiding New Parties - NYT

Tunisia Announces Election Delay - BBC

Will Mubarak's Trial Unite or Divide Egypt? - NYT opinion

Terrorism

Bin Laden Trove of Documents Sharpen US Aim - AP

Bin Laden Deputy Issues Eulogy Video - VOA

Qaeda No. 2 Delivers Video Eulogy to Bin Laden - NYT

Al-Qaeda Video Raises Questions - WP

Bin Laden's No. 2: Muslims Will Destroy America - AP

Bin Laden Documents Sharpen US Aim - AP

US Seeks Help from Egypt in Recapturing Terrorists at Large - WT

US Department of Defense

Future Wars Seen as Longer, Deadlier - WT

Lynn: US Must Prepare for Future Warfare Trends - AFPS

Panetta Sees 'Difficult Choices' Ahead to Curtail Spending - Bloomberg

Panetta will Deal with a Pentagon Bureaucracy that Gates Mastered - TH

Inside the Ring: Panetta and Defense Spending - WT

V-22 Vertical Aircraft Gets Rave Reviews - TH

Cost of Fuel is Major Expense for US Military - TD

One Army, Two Failures - S&S

Case Against ex-NSA Manager Narrows - WP

US Intelligence Community

Spooks Get New Workout Routine... for Their Minds - DR

United States

US Can't Justify its Drug War Spending, Reports Say - LAT

Lynn Cites Importance of Programs to Prevent Conflict - AFPS

Africa

Hedge Funds 'Grab' Africa's Land - BBC

UN Report Warns of Regional 'Ethnic Cleansing' in Sudan - AP

Americas

Suspicion and Disunity Impede Effort to Fight Drug Violence - NYT

Mexico: Former Tijuana Mayor Charged in Weapons Case - WP

Mexico Returns Former Mayor to Tijuana to Face Arms Charges - LAT

After Years of Rumor, Tijuana Mayor Faces Charges - AP

Mexico Gunmen Kill 11 at Torreon Drugs Clinic - BBC

Peru's President-elect Humala Eyes Stronger US Ties - BBC

Colombia Condemns Murder of Land Activist Ana Cordoba - BBC

Aide's Quitting Casts Doubt on Brazil's New President - NYT

Elite Police Force Arrives in Northern Brazil - AP

Asia Pacific

China Aircraft Carrier Confirmed by General - BBC

Report: General Confirms China's Aircraft Carrier - AP

Aggrieved Chinese Face Swift Police Repression - VOA

Scatological Mockery of Chinese Official Brings Swift Penalty - NYT

North Korea Reportedly Test-fires Missiles - CNN

Europe

NATO, Russia Clash Again on Missile Defense Plan - AP

Italian Police in Massive Swoop on Mafia Suspects - BBC

Greece 'Needs Further Assistance' - BBC

South Asia

South Asia's Energy Quest Could Reshape Region - WP

In India, Dynamism Wrestles With Dysfunction - NYT

India's Anti-Corruption Activists Renew Pressure on Government - VOA

Activist Condemns India Crackdown - BBC

Nepal Police Accused of Graft - BBC

Testing the Afghan Exit Ramps

Thu, 06/09/2011 - 3:15am
Testing the Afghan Exit Ramps by David Ignatius, Washington Post. BLUF: "Inevitably, this debate is partly a numbers game: The rapid-withdrawal advocates want a timetable for removing all 30,000 of the "surge" troops Obama decided to send in December 2009. The "stay the course" proponents want a modest reduction of 3,000 to 5,000 troops, which is all they think conditions allow. A 'split the difference' caucus argues for a cutback that hits five figures - something around 10,000."

8 June SWJ Roundup

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 1:39am
***Keep the Roundup (the Journal, the Blog and the Council) Going AND Get a Nifty Coin to Boot***

Afghanistan

Report: Afghan Nation-building Programs Not Sustainable - WP

Gates Says NATO Forces Ready for Decisive Blow in Afghanistan - VOA

Gates Says Coalition, Afghans Can Turn Corner in Conflict - AFPS

Obama Thanks Germany for Work in Afghanistan - AFPS

Marines Struggle to Convince Afghans they Won't Abandon Them - S&S

Beheading of Politician Seen as Message from Insurgents - LAT

Leaving Afghanistan - WP opinion

Pakistan

US and Pakistan Authorities Dispute Militant's Death - Reuters

Pakistan 'Failing on Minorities' - BBC

Iraq

As More US Troops Die End of Mission Remains Unclear - S&S

US Plans Private Guard Force for Iraq - WSJ

A Gold Rush, Deep in a City's Sewers - NYT

Syria

Syrian Mutiny, Loss of Town Shows Cracks in Regime - AP

Syrians Brace For Government Backlash Over Killings - VOA

Fighters Shoot Protesters at a Palestinian Camp in Syria - NYT

Assad Brother Plays Big Role in Syria - NYT

EU Allies Seek UN Action on Syria - BBC

Syrian Envoy Resigns on TV, or Perhaps It Was Impostor - NYT

Syrian Ambassador to France Denies Resignation - Reuters

Syrian American Blogger Detained - WP

Libya

NATO Attack Destroys Much of Qaddafi Compound - NYT

NATO Planes Bomb Tripoli for Hours on End - LAT

Daytime Airstrikes Rock Libyan Capital - VOA

NATO Unleashes Blistering Airstrikes in Libya - AP

Obama, Merkel Expect Gadhafi To Leave - VOA

Obama and Merkel Tell Qaddafi to Go - NYT

Gaddafi: 'We Will Not Surrender' - WP

Gaddafi Vows to Fight to the Death - BBC

Obama: Gadhafi Must Step Down as 'Arab Spring' Resumes - AFPS

People in Battle-Torn Libya Facing Critical Shortages - VOA

Libyan Minister Visits Beijing After China Talks With Rebels - VOA

Yemen

Yemen's Interim Leadership Rules out Transition Deal for Now - VOA

Yemeni Leader's Condition Raises Doubts About Rule - NYT

President Reported in Serious Condition, Deadly Clashes Continue - WP

Yemen's Saleh 'Gravely Wounded' - BBC

US Officials: Yemen Leader Heavily Burned in Blast - AP

Israel / Palestinians

France to Pursue Mideast Peace Conference - VOA

France to Move Forward on Mideast Conference - AP

Arsonists Damage and Deface Mosque in West Bank Village - NYT

Mosque Torched in West Bank - WP

Israeli Settlers Suspected of Setting Fire in West Bank Mosque - VOA

Syria Warns of More Marches on Israeli Border - AP

Pro-Syrian Palestinian Group Kills 11 Refugees - Reuters

Middle East

Ahmadinejad Criticizes IAEA Chief - AP

Iran Says No Offer Can Stop It Enriching Uranium - Reuters

Obama Supports Efforts by Bahrain to Ease Crisis - VOA

Bahraini Clerics Accuse Police, Unease Continues - Reuters

Internet

Next Generation Internet Addresses Gets Test Flight - VOA

United States

Poll: Global Support for US Killing of Bin Laden - Reuters

A New Voice of America for the Age of Twitter - NYT

After 40 Years, the Complete Pentagon Papers - NYT

Chicago: A Witness Overshadows a Terrorism Defendant - NYT

Chicago: Jury to Begin Deliberating in Mumbai Attacks Trial - AP

Africa

East Africa 'Faces Food Crisis' - BBC

11 Die in Sect Attacks in Nigeria's Northeast - AP

Deadly Attack on Nigerian Police - BBC

Residents Flee Sudan Flashpoint State Clashes - Reuters

Americas

OAS Promises to Tackle Drug Trafficking and Crime - NYT

Hard to Draw Line on Mexico Border Drug Violence - HC

Mexican Cartels Using 'Narco Tanks' - WP

Monster Trucks on the Road, From Gangs in Mexico - NYT

Mexico: Juarez Top Cop Offers Results by December - AP

429 Bodies Found So Far in 2 North Mexico States - AP

Mexican Police Chief Arrested in Rancher's Killing - AP

Gunmen Kill 11 at Drug Rehab Center in Mexico - AP

Ex-Mexican Governor Arrested in Embezzlement Case - AP

Asia / Pacific

China: Execution in a Killing That Fanned Class Rancor - NYT

EU Team Visits North Korea to Assess Food Aid Needs - VOA

North Korea Test Fired Short-Range Missile Last Week - Reuters

Communist Rebel Attacks Kill 6 in Philippines - AP

Malaysia Considers Amnesty for Illegal Immigrants - NYT

Injustice May Spark Fresh Kyrgyzstan Violence - BBC

Europe

Obama, Merkel Disagree on Libya, Economics - WP

Obama Cites Value of US-German Alliance - AFPS

Obama, Merkel Pledge to Cooperate on Libya, Economy - LAT

Obama Presses Europe, Pledges Help for Greek Crisis - Reuters

Germany Faces Criticism Over E. Coli Outbreak - NYT

EU Sets E. Coli Aid at 150m Euros - BBC

UK Outlines Fresh Anti-Extremism Tactics - AP

NATO-Russia Drill Aims to Prevent September 11 Attack - Reuters

Rector at Muslim University in Russia Is Shot to Death - NYT

Bomb Blast Hits Russian Railway Line in Siberia - Reuters

Georgia Diplomat: Peace Talks with Russia at Risk - AP

Russia and Norway in Arctic Deal - BBC

Serbia: Mladic Out of Hospital, in Regular Prison - Reuters

South Asia

India Remains Non-Committal on IMF Job - VOA

Indian Activist Plans New Protest - BBC

Afghan Nation-building Programs Not Sustainable (Updated)

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 11:25pm
Afghan Nation-building Programs Not Sustainable, Report Says by Karen DeYoung, Washington Post. BLUF: "The hugely expensive U.S. attempt at nation-building in Afghanistan has had only limited success and may not survive an American withdrawal, according to the findings of a two-year congressional investigation to be released Wednesday."

Update: The full report has been released and can be found here.

Civil-military lessons from the 2006 Hezbollah war

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 12:31pm
RAND's Project Air Force division recently published a book-length analysis of Israel's 2006 campaign against Hezbollah. Benjamin Lambeth, author of Air Operations in Israel's War Against Hezbollah, attempts to make the case that the Israeli Air Force (IAF) executed a highly competent campaign against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Yet Lambeth readily acknowledges that a tarnished reputation now hangs over the overall campaign and the government and high command that led the 34-day war. According to Lambeth, blame for the perceived failure rests with top civilian leaders, who impetuously rushed into asserting strategic goals they could not achieve, and with top military leaders who failed to give competent military advice to their civilian masters. Lambeth's version of the 2006 war reveals important civil-military lessons for policymakers everywhere.

According to Lambeth, the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) had a fully developed contingency plan to battle Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, in circumstances closely resembling those that precipitated the 2006 war. Yet when the crisis broke out, neither the civilian leadership nor top military commanders were —to implement the contingency plan, which called for a large combined arms air and ground campaign into Lebanon. When the crisis arrived, no one wanted a repeat of either the 1982 war or the subsequent 18 year occupation of southern Lebanon.

The fact that the Hezbollah contingency plan was "dead on arrival" reveals the first civil-military lesson from 2006. Civilian and military leaders should regularly review on-the-shelf war plans, to assess their assumptions, check whether they are politically feasible, and determine whether they are a useful match with current strategic objectives.

Lambeth heaps the most blame on Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who Lambeth believes made a severe blunder at the very beginning of the crisis by impetuously setting objectives that were unobtainable. Olmert's openly-stated goals were the return of the two captured Israeli soldiers, the suppression of Hezbollah rocket fire into Israel, and the removal of the Hezbollah military threat from southern Lebanon. Having established such maximal objectives -- seemingly blind to Israel's experience in Lebanon between 1982 and 2000 -- Olmert and his advisers then widened the gap between expectations and reality by choosing a military strategy -- stand-off bombardment only -- that did not have a chance of achieving those goals.

The lesson here for policymakers is to be careful about what one commits to. Fast-moving crises obviously exert great time pressure on decision-makers. Adopting an "under-promise, over-deliver" approach at the beginning allows a policymaker to later increase his promises. By contrast, doing the reverse is a setup for an embarrassing climb-down.

Lambeth's account shows that Israel's problems with the 2006 campaign began early on with faulty top-level assessments of ends, ways, and means. The "Cast Lead" operation against Hamas in January 2009 showed an improved assessment of ends, ways, and means, along with improved air-ground combat performance.

But even as Israel's strategic bumbling in 2006 resulted in many lessons learned, the war against Hezbollah seems to have successfully restored a climate of deterrence over southern Lebanon. As Israel's leaders fumbled toward a conclusion to the conflict, the IDF's 34 days of bombardment ended up delivering nearly 200,000 bombs, shells, and rockets into Lebanon. Did that punishment purchase five years of quiet from Hezbollah? That might be the most important lesson of all.