Total Victory or Endless War in Ukraine | Atlantic Council

Peter Dickinson’s September 29th UkraineAlert from the Atlantic Council, titled “Vladimir Putin only has two options in Ukraine: Total victory or endless war,” reflects on the prospects for peace following speeches and discussions at the UN General Assembly. In short, they’re bleak. 

Putin’s desire to conquer Ukraine hasn’t waned. Land won’t help. He wants the entity. 

The Russian ruler believes he is waging a holy war to destroy Ukraine and reclaim his country’s superpower status. He will not be distracted from this messianic goal by the promise of minor territorial concessions. Instead, serious negotiations will only begin when Putin is placed under considerably more pressure by Ukraine’s international allies. Peace with Putin’s Russia is possible, but it can only be peace through strength.

That’s why Dickinson sees more war before any cessation. Consider this quote:

Putin’s determination to wipe Ukraine off the map and his regime’s reliance on the current wartime conditions make further escalation a far more realistic prospect than peace. Indeed, if he is unable to secure a decisive victory in Ukraine, Putin will almost certainly opt to continue the war indefinitely rather than gamble on a compromise settlement that would have uncertain consequences for his regime.

Then there’s the issue of half a million traumatized soldiers to bring home. That’s another reason to delay any near-term ceasefire. 

Veterans of the Soviet Union’s war in Afghanistan played a key role in the rise of lawlessness amid the breakup of the USSR during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Nobody in Moscow wishes to risk a repeat.

So when Zelensky addressed the General Assembly and dismissed that territorial concessions could end the war, he was highlighting the inability of Ukraine’s Western partners to truly understand Putin’s imperial ambitions. The Kushner-Witkoff duo– in this respect– is falling short.