The Math Behind Cartel Recruitment in Mexico
After a February military operation led to the death of Nemesio Rubén “El Mencho” Oseguera, Mexican authorities sifted through the cartel leader’s belongings. There, in the cabin where he was ambushed, they allegedly uncovered logs showing that low-level members of El Mencho’s Jalisco New Generation Cartel earned as little as $140 per week. Why, many people asked, would somebody take such a deadly job for such low pay?
But Complexity Science Hub’s Dr. Rafael Prieto-Curiel explains that, with the entry-level gigs paying at least 50 percent higher than Mexico’s minimum wage, “the cartel is being a bit seductive because they offer so much money.”
And he’s got the numbers to prove it. Prieto-Curiel, a mathematician who worked on crime forecasting in the Mexico City police force, coauthored a landmark 2023 study for Science calculating that, with 175,000 members, cartels represent Mexico’s fifth-largest employer. Moreover, he estimates that they count as the country’s top recruiter, given that they have to repeatedly replenish their ranks following arrests, killings, and disappearances. “With 350 recruits [per week], they are preventing their own collapse,” he tells AS/COA’s Carin Zissis.
As Mexico’s war on organized crime stretches into its twentieth year, the government of President Claudia Sheinbaum has touted arrests, drug seizures, and kingpin captures. Washington, meanwhile, has suggested the solution is military strikes.
But Prieto-Curiel argues the real solution is cutting off recruitment—whether forced or financially driven—through targeted social and rehabilitation programs, as well as by penalizing cartel enlistment. For now, he says, “The impact of violence is costing around 18 to 20 percent of the country’s GDP.”
He does hold hope for the future, however. “I am convinced that Mexico and Latin America can…defeat crime. It just takes time—and it takes a very scientific approach.”
This episode was produced by Khalea Robertson, Luisa Leme, and Camilo Salas. Carin Zissis is the host.
