SIPRI Yearbook 2026: Initial Summary and Commentary
The 2026 edition of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s Yearbook, published June 8th, presents a bleak portrait of international security in 2025. Data and analysis presented in the report’s summary document confirm that the post-cold war security architecture is collapsing.
The following is our capture of the summary document’s key highlights.
Armed Conflict and Human Cost
The number of interstate armed conflicts doubled from three in 2024 to six in 2025, involving at least 13 states, even as overall conflict-related fatalities declined marginally to approximately 238,000. That’s still the highest number recorded outside 2024 in the period for which consistent data is available.
Around 117.3 million people were displaced by mid-2025, while violations of international humanitarian law continued their worrying trajectory upward.
Military Expenditure and Armaments
Global military expenditure reached a record US$2.9 trillion in 2025, its 11th consecutive annual increase, representing 2.5 per cent of world GDP. The average military burden across Europe rose to 3.2 per cent of GDP in 2025, more than double the 2016 level. Meanwhile, the volume of international arms transfers in 2021–25 was the highest since the end of the cold war, with arms imports by European states increasing by over 210 per cent compared to the preceding five-year period.
Nuclear Order Under Strain
At the start of 2026, nine states collectively possessed approximately 12,187 nuclear weapons, of which 9,745 were in military stockpiles. All nine nuclear-armed states continued modernization programs. The strategic nuclear arms control framework has effectively collapsed, with New START expired and no indication that trilateral negotiations among China, Russia, and the United States were imminent. The Israeli and US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 further destabilized the non-proliferation regime by ending continuous IAEA monitoring.
Eroding Governance Frameworks
Across virtually every domain examined (conventional arms control, cyber governance, space security, and multilateral peace operations) the report underlines institutional strain. Multilateral peace operations fell below 60 for the first time since 2016, while personnel deployed globally declined by nearly 49 per cent over the preceding decade. Withdrawals by several European states from the Anti-Personnel Mine Convention, driven by security concerns related to the Russia–Ukraine war, mark an unprecedented retreat from humanitarian arms control norms.
Commentary
What distinguishes SIPRI’s 2026 assessment from prior editions is the cumulative picture of simultaneous erosion across security architectures that, quirks acknowledged, have been decades in construction. The transactional, power-based diplomacy that characterized 2025 may yield short-term agreements, the report describes, but it systematically hollows out the norms and institutions on which durable peace depends.
SIPRI’s director, Karim Haggag, cautions that peace research itself must resist absorption into narrow national security paradigms if it is to serve its foundational purpose.
While you’re here…
To go deeper, check out “SIPRI Yearbook 2026: A Compounding Security Crisis,” in which we pull on some of the threads, point out patterns, and ask questions.
