Sheinbaum’s Real Test | Foreign Affairs

David Mora of the International Crisis Group has an article out in Foreign Affairs called “Why Mexico’s Cartels Are So Hard to Defeat,” in which he argues Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s real test is whether she can build on the flashy successes of her campaign against criminal organizations and achieve a durable dismantling of their support systems. 

Sheinbaum has had to walk a tightrope between getting results and the political costs of achieving them, he writes. Washington’s pressure is an added variable. 

If Mexico’s war on drugs is to achieve more than fleeting military victories, the government must dislodge criminal groups from the areas they control and dismantle the support systems that keep them afloat. Sheinbaum understands what is needed to get lasting results. The question is whether she can manage political resistance at home and a tricky relationship with Washington well enough to make it happen.”

Her success so far has come not from ramped-up force alone. And that will be important for doing what no Mexican leader has really managed to do. That is, getting to the system. 

Force is only one part of Sheinbaum’s approach. The second part is intelligence and investigations, and it rests on the belief that improvements to both can bring about what the military alone has failed to achieve: dismantling the political and financial structures that sustain organized crime.

The hardest part, perhaps, is actually bringing criminals, and their corrupt political enablers, to justice. 

Successful investigations that end in the prosecution of corrupt political figures and cartel financiers—not just those who commit violence—will be crucial for Sheinbaum to turn short-term tactical victories into real strategic gains against criminal groups. She will particularly need to focus on unraveling the connections between criminal groups and local governments and security forces.

Pressure from Washington is a double-edged sword. Trump’s threats, if acted on, would set the Trump-Sheinbaum relationship back– the longer-term cost of a Trumpian show of force. On the other hand, as things stand, the possibility of this kind of action helps Sheinbaum. 

For Sheinbaum, unrelenting U.S. pressure is both a constraint and a potential lever. If Trump goes so far as to order unilateral military action, it could destroy the U.S.-Mexican cooperation that has been essential to fighting criminal groups. But for now, the threat of escalation from Washington can give Sheinbaum enough political cover to accept the latest indictments and withstand pressure from members of her coalition.

Mora is explicit in his view that symbolic wins– while part of the war– don’t win the war. 

And both administrations should avoid measuring success by the killing or capture of criminal bosses; these flashy operations often end up splintering criminal groups, stoking more violence as rival factions compete for control.

As we approach Mora’s conclusion, we’re left with a better appreciation of the complexities of combatting criminal organizations. We’re primed to, by the title, after all. But this piece is just as much a constructive how-to for the Sheinbaum administration as it is a lament. That’s why we’re left feeling optimistic. 

Mora concludes:

… [I]f she can translate her popularity into durable political control, not only securing a legislative majority but replacing compromised state officials with candidates who pass muster, she could build on the achievements of the past year and a half and put together a more thoroughgoing campaign against the political and financial bases of organized crime.

While you’re here… 

Check out our recent discourse on U.S. covert operations within Mexico: “The CIA’s Cartel Campaign.”