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04/30/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

  |  
04.30.2021 at 01:12pm

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell.  Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs

1. How Biden Can Reduce the North Korean Threat

2. North Korea Sends 10-Year Military Vets to Mines and Building Sites Right After Discharge

3. N. Korea likely to stage provocation, continue modernizing missiles: U.S. intelligence

4. Defector group flouts ban, sends leaflets across North Korea border

5. Biden’s Early Tenure Has Improved America’s Image Abroad

6. Three Puzzles in South Korean Diplomacy Discourse

7. Sharp scuffle between S. Korea, Japan in US review of N. Korea policy

8. Why are South Korea’s young men turning against Moon Jae-in and his ruling party?

9. Kim Jong Un absent from North Korea’s Youth League Congress

10. Biden will meet with South Korea’s president on May 21.

11. N.K.’s largest youth group drops late founder’s name from title after 25 years

12. Korea to Support U.S.-Led Anti-China Alliance

13. Woman in her 20s dies after beating from Yanggang Province detention center guard

14. North Korea’s Generation Z: The Achilles Heel of Regime Stability

15. Washington Post pivots to Asia with Seoul news hub

16. Half of the Sinpo Fishing Company’s fishermen being moved to military fishing company

 

1. How Biden Can Reduce the North Korean Threat

National Review · by Nicholas Eberstadt · April 29, 2021

If this does not spur some creative thinking I do not know what will.  This is from one of our pre-eminent Korea scholars, Dr. Nick Eberstadt.

I was a little more blunt a few years ago as I would call this a strategic strangulation campaign – and then prepare for what comes next. 

I would also add a support to potential internal resistance component and of course it must be built on a sophisticated and holistic information and influence campaign that includes a focus on what is an existential threat to the Kim family regime: human rights (which Nick discusses below)

 

2. North Korea Sends 10-Year Military Vets to Mines and Building Sites Right After Discharge

rfa.org · by Jieun Kim

The brutality of the regime.

Is there resistance potential?

 

3. N. Korea likely to stage provocation, continue modernizing missiles: U.S. intelligence

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 29, 2021

An intelligence question we should always ask is what effect Kim is trying to achieve with a provocation?  What are his objectives? And then how can we counter them?

This is our assessment. But is it Kim’s assessment?  And in the worst case scenario when faced with an existential internal or external threat Kim Jong-un may believe execution of his campaign to unify the peninsula by force may be his only option.  Furthermore, just because we assess he does not have the military capability to achieve unification it does not mean that the regime does not seek and will use subversion, coercion/extortion and political warfare to try to achieve it.

Excerpt: “While Berrier noted the North has the capability to mount an attack on South Korea or U.S. Forces Korea, he said the North Korean military “lacks the overall capability to reunify the Korean Peninsula or support a sustained conflict.””

 

4. Defector group flouts ban, sends leaflets across North Korea border

UPI · by Thomas Maresca

A test case? What will be the ROKG response? Will there be a north Korean response?  Human rights and information are existential threats to the Kim family regime.

The US position? (Good statement from the State Department spokesman):

On Thursday, U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price praised “the courage of the North Korean defector and human rights community” and said the United States “will always support their efforts to shine a spotlight on these grave injustices.”

 

5. Biden’s Early Tenure Has Improved America’s Image Abroad

morningconsult.com · by Eli Yokley · April 27, 2021

Some interesting data.  Note the little difference in South Korea.

I will William Gallo of VOA offers an interesting anecdotal explanation for why the ratings in South Korea are nearly the same under Trump and Biden.

 

Here is what he tweeted about this article.  I have a similar experience among my Korean friends in the South.

 

William Gallo

@GalloVOA

The US favorability rating in South Korea remains the same under Biden as it was under Trump, suggests this

@MorningConsult poll.

 

William Gallo

@GalloVOA

Some anecdotal context: I’ve talked with a lot of South Koreans who keep their opinion of Trump separate from their opinion of the US. Which makes sense and would help explain this poll.

 

6. Three Puzzles in South Korean Diplomacy Discourse

Toda · by Chung-in Moon

From one of the most dangerous foes of the ROK/US alliance.  Beware the subversion by Moon Chung-in because he seeks to undermine the alliance and is willing to appease north Korea more than most.

That said, his three “anecdotes” (or puzzles) below provide some interesting and useful perspectives.  They can provide us with insights into how he is likely advising the Moon administration.

 

7. Sharp scuffle between S. Korea, Japan in US review of N. Korea policy

Hani · by Gil Yun-hyung · April 26, 2021 

An interesting development.  

I doubt we are going to explicitly state CVID.  I do not think that phrase and acronym will be found in the new US Korea policy.

Excerpts: “In the statement, the US and Japan agreed on four principles about North Korea: calling for North Korea to abide by UN Security Council resolutions, promoting the denuclearization of North Korea (rather than the Korean Peninsula), strengthening “deterrence to maintain peace and stability in the region” – implying more South Korea-US and Japan-US military exercises, and blocking proliferation.

But disagreements were also evident in the statement. Suga said in a press conference after the summit that the two countries had agreed on the complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement (CVID) of North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles of all ranges, but that wasn’t included in the joint statement.

It would appear that South Korea and Japan are standing on either side of the US and yanking its arms in the opposite direction, with Seoul calling for gradual and phased denuclearization based on the Singapore joint declaration, and Japan pushing for CVID, an approach that North Korea has roundly rejected.

On Thursday, the day after Moon’s interview ran in the New York Times, Noh Kyu-duk, South Korea’s special representative for Korean Peninsula peace and security affairs, spoke on the phone with Sung Kim, the acting assistant secretary in the US State Department’s Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs.

In a press release, South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that Noh and Kim’s phone call had “confirmed that close cooperation is taking place between South Korea and the US in regard to the US’s review of North Korea policy, which is now being wrapped up.” Seoul appears to have reiterated the position that Moon expressed in the interview during deliberations between these lower-level officials.

But it’s still uncertain to what extent the US will accommodate South Korea’s preferences and whether it will put off announcing the results of the review until after Moon visits the US.

 

8. Why are South Korea’s young men turning against Moon Jae-in and his ruling party?

SCMP · by Kim Ji-Hyun

Excerpt:South Korea’s next presidential elections are set to be held in March 2022. Though young men appear to be deserting Moon’s ruling party, victory for the opposition is far from guaranteed.

“It’s too early to predict which party or politician could win the next presidential election,” said Bong Young-shik, a research fellow at Yonsei University Institute for North Korean Studies. “The game changer could come in November, when the government plans to achieve Covid-19 herd immunity. Given that the vaccination rate of the first dose is less than 5 per cent, it’ll be a very tough game for the ruling party.”

 

9.  Kim Jong Un absent from North Korea’s Youth League Congress

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim · April 29, 2021

A cause of concern? Or will we overreact with speculation?

Excerpt:The youth league represents North Koreans ages 14 to 30, and retains about 5 million active members.

Kim attended the 9th congress of the youth league in 2016, but his name was not mentioned in state media Thursday.

South Korean analyst Cho Han-bum at the Seoul-based Korea Institute for National Unification told local news service News 1 Kim’s non-attendance is unusual.

Some North Korea watchers in the South are raising concerns Kim could be engaging in other activities related to the military, including a potential launch of a submarine-launched ballistic missile, according to News 1.”

 

10. Biden will meet with South Korea’s president on May 21.

The New York Times · by Madeleine Ngo · April 29, 2021

Will the new US Korea policy be unveiled before, during, or after the summit?

 

11. N.K.’s largest youth group drops late founder’s name from title after 25 years

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 30, 2021

Interesting development. What does this mean?  What effect is the party trying to achieve.  I am sure this had to be approved by Kim Jong-un and coordinated with the Propaganda and Agitation Department.  There must be an intended message in this.

 

12. Korea to Support U.S.-Led Anti-China Alliance

english.chosun.com · April 29, 2021

Half pregnant?

Excerpts: “The U.S. is asking us to join a Quad Plus,” a ruling party official said. “But we think we can cooperate with the Quad countries on a case-by-case basis in fields where we have a contribution to make.” Another official said, “We’re partially joining the Quad at the request of the U.S. because we need to secure more vaccines. But it’s not full membership.”

The government is wary of China, which has repeatedly asked Korea if it intends to join. Beijing accuses the Quad of being “cliquish” and taking a “cold-war-era approach.”

It remains to be seen whether the halfway house the government has settled on will satisfy either side.

 

13. Woman in her 20s dies after beating from Yanggang Province detention center guard

dailynk.com · by Lee Chae Un · April 30, 2021

Kim Jong-un and the Kim family regime must be held accountable for their horrific human rights abuses and crimes against humanity.

 

14. North Korea’s Generation Z: The Achilles Heel of Regime Stability

keia.org · by Hazel Smith · April 28, 2021

Internal and external threats.  But it is the internal threats that could bring down the regime (and unfortunately could also result in catastrophic decisions by the regime).  This is a very powerful conclusion.  I think this is why the regime has tried to take advantage of COVID and imposed the most draconian population and resources control measures in the modern era.

We need to assess this: Is there nascent resistance potential inside north Korea?

Excerpts: “Externally, the regime understands the nuclear program as providing a successful deterrent to foreign intervention. Its military strategy is supported by reliance on diplomatic protection from China and Russia that it counts on to prevent a United Nations Security Council resolution authorizing military force against the DPRK.

Domestically, the regime is floundering. The frequent panegyrics praising city youth who ‘volunteer’ to work in coal mines and cooperative farms after graduation reflect a regurgitation of past policies whose sell by date ran out in the famine years of the 1990s. It seems unlikely that the insistence on ‘more ideology’ as a substitute for access to decent work, food and living conditions will provide a sufficient motivating force for this new generation, whose understandings of the world are very different from those prescribed by that self-same ideology. The regime is correct in its assessment that Generation Z provides the Achilles heel of regime stability.

 

15.  Washington Post pivots to Asia with Seoul news hub

The Nikkei

Excerpt: “On Wednesday, the company announced details of the Seoul news hub, appointing Kendra Nichols from within the company as hub editor, and hiring Katerina Ang, who has been a contributing writer for Nikkei Asia, to be breaking-news editor.

The hubs in Seoul and London “are focused on covering the news wherever it takes place and doing so in the right time zone,” Jehl said. Seoul will be a team of 10, while London will have nine staff, including four breaking-news reporters, two breaking-news editors, a visuals editor, an audience editor and at least one multiplatform editor.

Half of the breaking-news reporters will watch over U.S. news, while the other half covers international news. That breakdown reflects the function of the new hub. The goal is to both cover Asia news during the Asia daytime, and to relieve pressure from the U.S. team during their nighttime.

 

16.  Half of the Sinpo Fishing Company’s fishermen being moved to military fishing company

dailynk.com · by Jong So Yong · April 30, 2021

The military is the best functioning institution in north Korea.  And of course it wants to control economic activity and food procurement.

Excerpts: “In response to the complaints, the Ministry of Defense’s logistics department has promised to compensate the boat captains. Captains with diesel powered boats will receive 20 kilograms of soybeans while unpowered fishing boat captains will receive 15 kilograms of corn.

Despite this promise of compensation, boat captains still continue to sell off boats and boat parts because they believe the compensation is “ridiculously low” and because they do not want to suffer financial distress at the hands of the military.

“The Sinpo Fishing Company is no more if it gets divided up into two parts due to government policy,” the source said, adding, “People are angry because they are unsure about how they are supposed to survive when the military takes over farming and fishing activities.”

 

————

 

“Revolutionary war is an antitoxin which not only eliminates the enemy’s poison but also purges us of our own filth.”

– Chairman Mao Zedong (Tse-tung)

 

“Peace is not absence of conflict, it is the ability to handle conflict by peaceful means.”

– Ronald Reagan

 

“Do not think of knocking out another person’s brains because he differs in opinion from you. It would be as rational to knock yourself on the head because you differ from yourself ten years ago.”

– Horace Mann

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