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1/22/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

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01.22.2021 at 05:28pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. National Guard allowed back into Capitol complex after lawmakers erupt at banishment to parking garage

2. Austin to scrub US Pacific posture; more bases, troops likely

3. Biden should focus Defense Production Act on fixing the COVID supply chain

4. Chinese sanctions on former US cabinet members send powerful deterrent message

5. Beijing sanctions Pompeo, other anti-China hawks, sets ‘bottom line’ on bilateral ties

6. At Voice of America, a sweeping ouster of Trump officials on Biden’s first full day

7. Cut loose by tech giants, will far-right extremists be adrift?

8. Biden’s ‘big four’ to refine Trump’s China policy

9. Biden orders sweeping assessment of Russian hacking, even while renewing nuclear treaty

10. Blinken’s diplomatic cart will have a bumpy ride

11. The last chance for American internationalism

12. US charges Indonesian extremist Hambali in 2002 Bali bombings

13. Nearly 1 in 5 defendants in Capitol riot cases served in the military

 

1. National Guard allowed back into Capitol complex after lawmakers erupt at banishment to parking garage

CNN · Oren Liebermann & Besty Klein · January 22, 2021

No doubt this looks bad and there was some bad planning and communication. But this begs the question: why is the National Guard still deployed? Is it because they do not have a redeployment plan? Doubtful.

Or is it because there is still credible intelligence that a threat remains? Or is there a fear that, as soon as they are redeployed, another incident will occur?

 

2. Austin to scrub US Pacific posture; more bases, troops likely

Breaking Defense · Colin Clark · January 21, 2021

FDD recommendations for INDOPACOM (and all theaters) are here: “Defending Forward Securing America by Projecting Military Power Abroad” 

 

3. Biden should focus Defense Production Act on fixing the COVID supply chain

Defense News · Jeffrey P. Bialos · January 21, 2021

Like the old adage from the 1990s, “It’s the economy, stupid!” Here, it is, “it’s the supply chain, stupid!”

 

4. Chinese sanctions on former US cabinet members send powerful deterrent message

Global Times · Yu Jincui · January 21, 2021

Well, the Chinese Communist Party is clearly articulating its intent through its propaganda mouthpiece, The Global Times.

 

5. Beijing sanctions Pompeo, other anti-China hawks, sets ‘bottom line’ on bilateral ties

Global Times · Chen Qingqing et al · January 21, 2021

More from the CCP mouthpiece. Their intent could not be clearer.

They are paying for being members of the Trump administration and for implementing anti-Chinese policies.

They are warning members of the Biden administration that they too will pay for anti-Chinese policy making.

 

6. At Voice of America, a sweeping ouster of Trump officials on Biden’s first full day

Washington Post · Paul Farhi · January 21, 2021

Now we will see if this new team can effectively accomplish the USAGM/VOA/RFA/RFE/RL mission in support of US national security. This is one of the most important organizations in support of our information instrument of national power.

 

7. Cut loose by tech giants, will far-right extremists be adrift?

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace · Alicia Wanless · January 19, 2021

Is the deluge of political disinformation really waning?

 

8. Biden’s ‘big four’ to refine Trump’s China policy

Asia Times · Richard Javad Heydarian · January 22, 2021

 

9. Biden orders sweeping assessment of Russian hacking, even while renewing nuclear treaty

New York Times · David E. Sanger & Julian E. Barnes · January 21, 2021

Absolutely necessary.

Frankly, I am more worried about the cyber threat than the nuclear threat. Obviously we still must modernize our nuclear forces and deter nuclear war as it is the most dangerous threat. But cyber is the most likely threat and it can do tremendous damage in ways that could be extremely deadly.

 

10. Blinken’s diplomatic cart will have a bumpy ride

Asia Times · MK Bhadrakumar · January 22, 2021

An Indian perspective. Here is the author’s bio, which is worth a read all by itself.

 

11. The last chance for American internationalism

Foreign Affairs · Hal Brands · January 20, 2021

 

12. US charges Indonesian extremist Hambali in 2002 Bali bombings

South China Morning Post · Agence France-Presse · January 22, 2021

The CT fight must continue.

 

13. Nearly 1 In 5 defendants in Capitol riot cases served in the military

NPR · Tom Dreisbach & Meg Anderson · January 21, 2021

Of course, not every former military person there was radicalized or had any intent of attacking the democratic process at the Capitol. I know most military members who supported Trump are not radicalized and believe in supporting and defending the Constitution. We need to be careful about painting all military personnel and al Trump supporters with a broad brush. 

But the question is asked: does this mean there is a radicalization problem in the military? I was asked about this issue by a journalist recently. Here is my response.

This is probably one of the most complex and difficult issues the military must address.

On the one hand, extremism in the ranks absolutely cannot be tolerated. On the other hand, the appearance of witch hunts and purges and unfounded and mistaken allegations will undermine good order and discipline of military units as much as radicals in the ranks.

This problem is a leadership issue, a law enforcement investigation issue, and even a counterintelligence issue. Leaders at all levels must know the signs of extremism and deal with military personnel who are acting in accordance with extremist beliefs. The problem is drawing the line between what may be legitimate political views (which may be distasteful to some) and what is deemed extremist activity. The chain of command can only act when someone is violating the UCMJ or other laws. And if the military embarks on a campaign to identify those with extremist beliefs and makes mistakes or overreaches, it will not only undermine trust and confidence in military leadership. It will play right into the propaganda narratives of extremist organizations.

I do not know if the reserve components are more vulnerable than active-duty personnel.  Frankly, I doubt there is that much difference. Ideology and beliefs do not halt at military gates and checkpoints, especially in the information age.

And another issue would be if the military ever started trying to monitor online activity of service members. Again, this would serve to really disrupt military organizations and, again, play into the extremist propaganda narrative and would contribute to radicalizing more personnel. 

If I was advising a foreign intelligence organization, I would start creating and providing false information about servicemembers’ beliefs. I would create deep fakes to implicate service members in extremist activity to cause overreactions by unit chains of command. This would be one of the most subversive actions that could be taken against modern military organizations in western democracies.

Again, we cannot tolerate extremist activity in the ranks. But if we over-react to it, we will damage the military and contribute to the radicalization and recruitment of more personnel.

There are no easy answers, but leaders, law enforcement investigators, and counterintelligence personnel are going to have figure this out without playing into the hands of the extremists.

The bottom line: an extremely complex and dangerous problem with no easy answers.

 

“We rest our hopes too much upon constitutions, upon laws, and upon courts. These are false hopes; believe me, these are false hopes. Liberty lies in the hearts of men and women; when it dies there, no constitution, no law, no court can save it; no constitution, no law, no court can even do much to help it.”

– Judge Learned Hand

“Science gives us knowledge, but only philosophy can give us wisdom.”

– Will Durant

“The essential thing is action. Action has three stages: the decision born of thought, the order or preparation for execution, and the execution itself. All three stages are governed by the will. The will is rooted in character, and for the man of action character is of more critical importance than intellect. Intellect without will is worthless, will without intellect is dangerous.”

– Hans von Seeckt.

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