10/06/2020 News & Commentary – Korea
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs
1. USFK Chief Complains About Lack of Combined Training
2. Son of Official Murdered by N.Korea Rages at President
3. Sinpo South Shipyard Update: Days Before October 10 Celebration
4. Would killing of S. Korean civilian remain unresolved?
5. Kim Jong-un promotes pair of advisers to North’s highest military rank
6. Free Cash for All Boosts Rising South Korea Star to Top of Polls
7. Family calls for UN probe into North Korea’s killing of South Korean official
8. USFK has not used 68 bln won of Korea’s defense contributions since 2014: data
9. Chinese FM Cancels Korea Visit
10. N. Korea touts economic progress as party anniversary nears
11. North Korea Continues Uranium Enrichment
12. FDD | Did China help rig the South Korean election?
13. China Leads UN Call For US To End ‘Coercive’ Sanctions
14. N.K. leader oversees politburo meeting to launch 80-day campaign for economic development
15. South Korean Firms Reluctant to Bring Production Back From China – Caixin Global
16. N. Korea likely to be last to reopen borders due to COVID-19: experts
1. USFK Chief Complains About Lack of Combined Training
english.chosun.com· October 6, 2020
This is not a “complaint.” This is a realistic assessment by a military commander who leads a combined military force.
But it is not the USFK Chief who is making this assessment. It is the Commander of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command which is co-equally “owned” by the ROK and US. If the ROKG wants to conduct OPCON transition and have a change of command in which a ROK general Officer will take command of the ROK/US CFC it had better start focusing on the readiness of the command and the combined forces. The ROK government cannot afford to be a spotlight Ranger and just have the trappings surrounding OPCON transition and (incorrectly and erroneously) claim a return of sovereignty. (which is complete BS) without taking full and complete responsibility for the combined trained and combined readiness of the command and all apportioned forces to the command.
Note that this is in part a function of the 2018 Comprehensive Military Agreement (CMA) and the loss of live fire training areas for air and ground operations in the vicinity of the DMZ. The CMA has not resulted in any reciprocal tension reduction or confidence building measures from the north. It has only resulted in a decline of combined readiness.
2. Son of Official Murdered by N.Korea Rages at President
english.chosun.com· October 6, 2020
When I get a translation of the letter I will forward it. I wonder about the effect this will have on the Korean public and will it continue to an understanding of how poorly the government has handled the situation for the murder of a civil servant doing his job for the nation.
3. Sinpo South Shipyard Update: Days Before October 10 Celebration
CSIS · by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Victor Cha · October 4, 2020
The key finding of the key findings: “With the upcoming Korean Workers’ Party Foundation Day celebration on October 10, a SLBM test should not be ruled out as a possibility for Kim Jong-un’s self-proclaimed “October surprise.” Such a test would be consistent with Beyond Parallel historical data that shows heightened provocations around U.S. presidential election years.” I just want to know how they are going to get this Sinpo class submarine to march in the October 10th parade in Pyongyang (note sarcasm).
4. Would killing of S. Korean civilian remain unresolved?
donga.com· October 6, 2020
The question is will the killing result in a change of policy and strategy by the ROKG and a recognition that the Moon administration’s fundamental assumption about the Kim family regime has been erroneous?
Based on this conclusion I fear it will not: “It remains unknown what discussions are taking place under the table between the two Koreas. However, it is doubtful that South Korea will be able to insist on a joint investigation given its carefulness to not provoke the North with search operation, which deserves all-out efforts. The Ministry of Unification’s Monday message to North Korea simply said it wishes for the North’s quick response. Given the circumstances, it seems possible that the recent killing of the South Korean civilian may become another permanently unresolved incident between the Two Koreas.”
5. Kim Jong-un promotes pair of advisers to North’s highest military rank
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Shim Kyu-Seok
And I suppose they receive a marshal’s baton.
Interesting fact here (I am assuming it is accurate but I defer to the north Korean leadership experts). Note that one is the head of the missile program and the other is an artilleryman who is responsible for the short range missile program. Will they be showing off some from their programs on October 10th?
6. Free Cash for All Boosts Rising South Korea Star to Top of Polls
Bloomberg · by Jeong-Ho Lee · October 5, 2020
Here is the buried lede. The opposition conservative party is also embracing the universal basic income.
Still, the call for a universal income isn’t limited to Lee or other progressives in Moon’s camp. The idea is also gaining support in the top opposition conservative group.The newly named People Power Party recently introduced a pledge to seek a basic income. Its interim party leader Kim Chong-in is trying to build support by embracing some of the popular economic policies of the left with a tough stand on security that has been a bedrock position of the right.
I am reminded of these two quotes about people voting themselves free money:
“When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.”
– Benjamin Franklin
“A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government.
A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship”
– Alexander Tytler 1787
Korean people beware.
7. Family calls for UN probe into North Korea’s killing of South Korean official
The Korea Times · October 6, 2020
I doubt the UN will act on this.
Excerpts:
“The 18-year-old son, who is living with his mother and an eight-year-old sister, said his father had no reason to defect to the North and the government failed to protect one of its citizens.”
“I’d like to ask why my father had to go that far, what efforts the state was making to save my father and why it could not save him,” he wrote. “He was a public servant of the Republic of Korea and a citizen who should be protected. He suffered in the cold waters for a long time and was killed and burned … I want to ask who is responsible for this situation where we can’t even find his body, and what the state was doing when my father was killed brutally.”
“Regarding the letter, President Moon said he sympathizes with the teenager who lost his father and would like to send a message of comfort, according to presidential spokesman Kang Min-seok.”
“The President said we need to wait for the results of the investigation and search operations by the Coast Guard,” Kang said. “President Moon is also planning to write back to him.”
“Family calls for UN probe into North Korea’s killing of South Korean official.”
8. USFK has not used 68 bln won of Korea’s defense contributions since 2014: data
en.yna.co.kr · by 유청모 · October 5, 2020
I recall this from the past. This is not something new and it is one of the issues that have long upset Koreans -the perceived lack of accountability and lack of a full accounting of Korean funds provided to the US. But this surely undercuts US demands in negotiations. Of course this money was provide for support of US forces in Korea. What our demands for funding seem to be is simply a fee for service and a transfer of Korean funds to the US treasury for which I do not think there is a precedent and I believe no legal method in the ROK to be able to do so.
9. Chinese FM Cancels Korea Visit
Hmm.. I wonder if the Chinese FM and US SECSTATE have coordinated their cancelations (note sarcasm).
Seriously is this a message signalling displeasure with the possibility that the ROK could join the Quad Plus?
Excerpts:
“Instead, China is sending warnings from afar. Xin Qiang of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University said in an op-ed for the state-run Global Times, “[Korea’s] decision to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense in 2016 triggered strong resistance from China. Seoul would be afraid that its participation in Quad will irritate China again.”
“He was referring to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, an informal anti-Chinese alliance between the U.S., Japan, Australia and India, which the U.S. is trying to expand to include Korea, Vietnam and New Zealand.”
10. N. Korea touts economic progress as party anniversary nears
m.koreaherald.com · by Choi Si Young · October 5, 2020
Shameless lying propaganda. It is amazing to think a leader could get away with such lies. But when you have a Propaganda and Agitation Department working 24/7 to perpetuate lies to enhance the young marshal’s reputation I guess you can say and do what you want.
11. North Korea Continues Uranium Enrichment
armscontrol.org · by Julie Masterson
Again, this should not be a surprise to anyone.
12. FDD | Did China help rig the South Korean election?
fdd.org · by Cleo Paskal Non-Resident Senior Fellow · October 4, 2020
Was China using Korea as a testing ground?
Here is a link to Grant Newsham’s report.
13. China Leads UN Call for US To End ‘Coercive’ Sanctions
Barron’s · by AFP – Agence France Presse
Of course we could lift sanctions if these countries conducted themselves as responsible members of the international community and did not violate the norms of the community of nations. Simply change your behavior and you can have sanctions lifted.
But that is not something we can expect from these countries:
14. N.K. leader oversees politburo meeting to launch 80-day campaign for economic development
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · October 6, 2020
Another speed march at “Chollima speed.”
15. South Korean Firms Reluctant to Bring Production Back From China
caixinglobal.com· October 6, 2020
It is hard to decouple. But what if free nations around the world did try to decouple?
16. N. Korea likely to be last to reopen borders due to COVID-19: experts
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 6, 2020
No surprise here. This is likely for two reasons. The obvious one is the regime is deathly afraid of a coronavirus outbreak. The second one is the regime is exploiting the coronavirus in order to implement the harsh and draconian population and resources control measures that it wants to be able to oppress the Kor4ean people in the north so that the regime can remain in power.
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The only thing new in the world today is the history you don’t know.”
– Harry Truman
“I approve of this request [for Special Forces assignment] only because I want to support my officer’s career objectives, no matter how ill-advised they may be. However, I believe that the Army leadership must stop the erosion of of its top junior officer talent in Special Forces Branch which is a t best a current fad, and in the long term, a pitiful sideshow from the mainstream Army.”
XXXXXXXXX
Lieutenant Colonel, Armor
Commanding
26 April 1988
“When I took a decision, or adopted an alternative, it was after studying every relevant – and many an irrelevant – factor. Geography, tribal structure, religion, social customs, language, appetites, standards – all were at my finger-ends. The enemy I knew almost like my own side. I risked myself among them a hundred times, to learn.”
T.E. Lawrence
Letter to Sir basil Liddell Hart
26 June 1933