09/07/2020 News & Commentary – National Security
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. FBI Sweep of China Researchers Leads to Cat-and-Mouse Tactics
2. We Are Already Behind Enemy Lines: Lessons from the Secretive Online Fight Against the Islamic State
3. Why We Tweet: General Officer Use of Social Media to Engage, Influence, and Lead
4. The return of the Blob
5. Journalists Aren’t the Enemy of the People. But We’re Not Your Friends.
6. ‘October Surprise’ might be more surprising this time
7. Non-negotiable: all military members will be subject to Trump’s payroll tax deferral
8. Pentagon to Employees: How Can We Boost Diversity?
9. Lessons From Three Years in an Iranian Prison
10. ‘Sci-Fi Awesome’-A U.S. Army Howitzer Just Shot Down A Cruise Missile
11. Be Glad That Taiwan Didn’t Shoot Down A Chinese Fighter – And Start A War
12. The Army Is Working To Field A Ground-Launched Strike Version Of The Navy’s SM-6 Missile
13. Why is China so worried about the new alliance between Taiwan and Somaliland?
14. Philippines Duterte pardons U.S. Marine convicted of murdering transgender woman
15. The Ugly Truth about China’s Crackdown on Its Uighur Population
1. FBI Sweep of China Researchers Leads to Cat-and-Mouse Tactics
WSJ · by Kate O’Keeffe and Aruna Viswanatha· September 7, 2020
So I guess the question is how many of these spies have we not detected?
2. We Are Already Behind Enemy Lines: Lessons from the Secretive Online Fight Against the Islamic State
warontherocks.com · by Len “Loni” Anderson · September 7, 2020
Key point: “In short, we need a force not only prepared to fight tonight in a possible combat zone but also actively engaged and contesting the gray zone in the present. Designing a force that can do both is the vexing problem that many – including Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger – have recently highlighted. We believe the approach refined by task force ARES over several years campaigning against the Islamic State offers solutions applicable across the joint force. As a bonus, these are changes the Marine Corps can experiment with and implement now without waiting for a redesigned force in 2030.”
3. Why We Tweet: General Officer Use of Social Media to Engage, Influence, and Lead
Strategy Bridge · by Mick Ryan, Tammy Smith, Patrick Donahoe · September 7, 2020
I will have to update my twitter feed to add some of these new people to follow (though I do follow many already). Some good recommendations below.
4. The return of the Blob
spectator.us · by Robert D. Kaplan · September 4, 2020
The subtitles for this essay could be “If VP Biden is elected” or “a defense of the Blob.” The other key point is if President Trump is re-elected it could be the end of the think tank model as we know it.
5. Journalists Aren’t the Enemy of the People. But We’re Not Your Friends.
The New York Times · by Ben Smith · September 6, 2020
Nor should they be. But they should be professional colleagues who have a critically important job to do in support of our nation.
6. ‘October Surprise’ might be more surprising this time
asiatimes.com · by Bhim Bhurtel · September 7, 2020
What can really surprise us? I think a good surprise would be to have no surprise at all. A short summary of some past political October surprises.
7. Non-negotiable: all military members will be subject to Trump’s payroll tax deferral
federalnewsnetwork.com · by Nicole Ogrysko
This could be devastating for many people if this withholding is later collected and not forgiven and the payroll tax must be eventually paid. The right thing to do to protect yourself would seem to be to set aside this short term increase in take home and be prepared to pay it back on demand. But that would defeat the purpose of putting more money in households to provide more purchasing power to sustain the economic engine.
8. Pentagon to Employees: How Can We Boost Diversity?
defenseone.com · by Courtney Bublé
Our personnel systems need a lot of work in a lot of areas.
9. Lessons From Three Years in an Iranian Prison
Foreign Affairs · by Wang Xiyue · September 3, 2020
A fascinating read.
Conclusion: “The United States is a lot more important for Iran than Iran is for the United States. But Iran is a spoiler power that can cause great damage to the interests of the United States and its allies. This destructive capability is the principal leverage Iran wields. Washington should never lose sight of it, no matter how polarized debates on Iran become. Wishful thinking about the capabilities of Iranian moderates or the possibility of changing the revolutionary nature of the Islamic Republic actually helps fuel the anti-American rhetoric and disinformation of the Iranian regime and allows it to take advantage of the political divisions inside the United States.
10. ‘Sci-Fi Awesome’-A U.S. Army Howitzer Just Shot Down A Cruise Missile
Forbes · by David Axe · September 5, 2020
Could be a game changer?
11. Be Glad That Taiwan Didn’t Shoot Down A Chinese Fighter – And Start A War
Forbes · by Michael Peck · September 4, 2020
I missed this yesterday in my search about this alleged incident that did not take place. Thanks to a friend for flagging this.
I also received these important comments from a very experienced China watcher responding to my query about propaganda for the Chinese. This is very much worth reading and considering.
This is an interesting example of the Chinese emulating the Russian approach on fake news.
The plane crash in China was picked up by some obscure Indian social media sources, some of which, if the trackers are to be believed, have ties in turn back to China.
Like various other media outlets, the Chinese can then report on the reports, thereby “verifying” that there are “claims” that the plane was shot down by the Taiwanese, while not implicating themselves in the process. (This is an old Soviet-era tactic, where stories would be planted in foreign publications, then “reported” on by TASS, etc.)
Since Taiwan has been gaining some momentum (such as with the Czechs), this is an opportunity to both muddy the waters about who might be irresponsible in any Taiwan Straits confrontation, as well as warning Taiwan about how far it can/should go seeking out new partners.
More worrisome, this goes to the Chinese belief that they can play with popular sentiment, and crisis management, in ways that the West tends to find concerning. WE (i.e., the West) are more worried about the Chinese government creating a nationalist wave that they can’t control much more than the CHINESE are concerned about their creation of a nationalist wave they cannot control. This, of course, in turn plays into Beijing’s hands. “Don’t interact with Taiwan/intervene in the South China Sea, because it might ‘unleash’ a nationalist wave that we can’t control!” That the wave was actually unleashed by the Chinese, who have formidable controls over their regular and social media is left unstated.
It’s always fascinating to me that a nation that has the Great Firewall of China, intelligent AI algorithms that suppress various discussion threads, and thousands and thousands of censors humanly examining emails and the like, somehow is unable to control hackers, many of whom work for state-run entities such as the PLA. Or disseminating certain messages through state-run media (in accordance with directives from the Central Propaganda Department.)
12. The Army Is Working To Field A Ground-Launched Strike Version Of The Navy’s SM-6 Missile
thedrive.com · by Tyler Rogoway · September 6, 2020
Let’s deploy this throughout Asia and all our base locations.
13. Why is China so worried about the new alliance between Taiwan and Somaliland?
The Telegraph · by Nicola Smith and Sophia Yan · September 7, 2020
The Great Power Competition is a global board game of Go or Wei Chi or Paduk.
14. Philippines Duterte pardons U.S. Marine convicted of murdering transgender woman
The Washington Post · September 7, 2020
15. The Ugly Truth about China’s Crackdown on Its Uighur Population
The National Interest · by Sumantra Maitra · September 7, 2020
Curious is right.
Conclusion:
“Experts on specialized topics often focus on why their area of research is more important than others. But everything starts with grand-strategy in this business. Foreign policy realists should be worried about everyone using the return of great-power rivalry to make weak cases for further continuous involvement in theatres which are inexorably declining in importance in the overall grand strategic game. Western Europe and the Asia-Pacific region remain important to the United States and to the survival of the United States as a great power. Africa and the Middle East, while important, are not existential. That doesn’t mean the United States and the West shouldn’t be prepared to challenge a great-power rival threatening direct interests. But just because there’s a great power rivalry on, doesn’t mean one needs to compete in every domain and every theatre. Prioritizing is crucial. And an intelligent strategy is to let China overstretch. If China is indeed getting involved in the Middle East…then it is a buck that one should be happy to pass on to China. France, the British Empire, the Soviet Union, and the United States suffered to order that region. Let China join the party and bleed itself dry.
The Ugly Truth about China’s Crackdown on Its Uighur Population
China faces no backlash from the Islamic world because the global spotlight is constantly on the West trying to order that ungovernable stretch of land for more than two hundred years.”
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“Life is a daring adventure or it is nothing at all.”
– Helen Keller
“There is only one way to avoid criticism: do nothing, say nothing, and be nothing.”
– Aristotle
“We can easily forgive a child who is afraid of the dark; the real tragedy of life is when men are afraid of the light.”
– Plato