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07/28/2020 NEWS & COMMENTARY – KOREA

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07.28.2020 at 05:52pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Andrew Narloch.

 

1. North Korea’s Kim says there will be no more war thanks to nuclear weapons

2. S. Korea, U.S. to hold summertime exercise for OPCON transfer test, readiness: ministry

3. Experts fear North Korea’s undelivered ‘Christmas gift’ may become ‘October surprise’

4. New virus cases under 30 for 2nd day on slowing imported cases; local infections at 1-week low  (South Korea)

5. Twelve more new arrivals test positive for coronavirus, US Forces Korea says

6. A North Korean coronavirus outbreak might be the biggest threat Kim Jong Un has ever faced

7. Defector Accused of Rape in South Korea Swims Back to North Korea

8. S. Korean police fail to manage N. Korean defectors

9. Factbox: What is known about North Korea’s possible coronavirus ‘patient zero’

10. Pyongyang ‘attempting to blame Seoul’ for Covid-19

11. Now South Korea’s Getting An Aircraft Carrier, Too

12. U.S. vice president sends condolence letter to widow of Korean general Paik

13. OHCHR | Women forcibly returned to North Korea suffer appalling violations in detention

14. How coronavirus in North Korea could bring down Kim Jong-un

15. North Korea steps up coronavirus prevention after first possible infection

16. Kim Jong-un exposed: North Korean officials beg China for vaccine as COVID-19 fears grow

17. North Korean women faced torture, rape, malnourishment in detention, says U.N. report

18. S. Korea allowed to develop solid-fuel space rocket under revised missile guidelines with U.S.

19. Defector’s border crossing captured by military’s surveillance equipment

20. No unusual military movement detected in N. Korea: defense ministry

21. Defense minister apologizes for defector’s slipping across border back to North

22. Unification minister urges staff to play more active role in inter-Korean policy

 

1. North Korea’s Kim Says There Will Be No More War Thanks to Nuclear Weapons

Reuters– Reporting by Hyonhee Shin in Seoul; Editing by Matthew Lewis-July 27, 2020

“I will fight no nuclear war forever.”  Kim jong-un seems to be channelling Chief Joseph – “I will fight no more forever.”

But seriously, the Kim family regime has long believed in the idea that the US will never attack another country armed with nuclear weapons.

 

 2. S. Korea, U.S. to hold summertime exercise for OPCON transfer test, readiness: ministry

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · July 28, 2020

“Both/and” is possible with good exercise design.  As an aside I rarely see the Korean media describe any of the conditions required for conditions based OPCON transition: “The conditions for the transfer are Seoul’s capability to lead the allies’ combined defense mechanism, its capacity for initial responses to the North’s nuclear and missile threats, and a stable security environment on the peninsula and in the region.”  The Full Operational Capability (FOC) assessment is designed to ensure the Korean military is on track to meet the conditions required for OPCON transition. The challenge is two of the conditions, north Korea’s missile and nuclear threat and a stable security environment on the peninsula and in the region, are conditions the ROK has little control over. It is unlikely the north’s missile and nuclear threats will be sufficiently reduced or the security situation will become stable as long as the Kim family regime remains in power.

 

3. Experts fear North Korea’s undelivered ‘Christmas gift’ may become ‘October surprise’

washingtontimes.com · by Guy Taylor

I hope journalists continue to discuss a possible “October Surprise” and all the likely scenarios. Public discussions about what Kim Jong-un may do is a form of attacking his strategy because it is eliminating an element of surprise.  The public will be so desensitized to the possibility of an October surprise most people will probably just say “Meh.  We knew that would happen.”  Kim will be unable to achieve the effects he desires.

 

4. New virus cases under 30 for 2nd day on slowing imported cases; local infections at 1-week low (South Korea)

en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · July 28, 2020

 

5. Twelve more new arrivals test positive for coronavirus, US Forces Korea says

Stars and Stripes – MATTHEW KEELER – July 27, 2020

 

6. A North Korean coronavirus outbreak might be the biggest threat Kim Jong Un has ever faced

CNN – by Analysis by Joshua Berlinger

Yes, as I have said many times a coronavirus outbreak in the north could very well be far worse than the Arduous March of the famine if 1994-1996. And if there is a widespread outbreak within the military it could very well result in severe regime instability. I hope the ROK/US CFC will include contingencies in the upcoming exercises.

 

7. Defector Accused of Rape in South Korea Swims Back to North Korea

voanews.com -By William Gallo- July 27, 2020 

A journalist asked me these two questions: “So what would be some reasons that North Korean defectors would return to North Korea? Also, are there any cases that North Korean defectors may be legally/ physically forced to return to the North?”

Here is my response.

Some of the reasons for returning to the north could be they are homesick and miss their families and homeland.  Despite what we think about the terrible conditions in the north it is still where they came from and grew and just like humans around the world they have a natural affinity for their homeland.

They may have been unable to satisfactorily assimilate intro South Korea culture and society. 

They may have gotten into some kind of legal trouble in South as this person is alleged to have.  So going back to the north may be a way to avoid punishment.  The sad irony is after he is initially exploited for propaganda purposes for returning to the north he will likely be severely punished and if he is ever freed from the gulag he will unlikely be allowed to have contact with his family and rank and file Koreans because the regime will not want him to share his experiences in the South.

Lastly the excepee/defector could be an active north Korean agent sent to the South to pose as a defector in order to carry out intelligence activities in the South.  He may be recalled or as could be in this case recalled for a specific purpose such as to allege that he brought back the coronavirus. The purpose of this is to “cover-up” the existing outbreak and put the blame on South Korea  for any outbreak.  This also can provide an excuse for the north to accept coronavirus aid from the South since the blame for the outbreak will appear to be on the South. I am just speculating as to whether he may have been recalled but even if he returned on his own I expect the regime to fully exploit this for propaganda purposes on multiple levels.

As you know all Koreans from the north are by definition of the ROK constitution citizens of the republic of Korea when they reach the South.  Therefore there should be no legal means to return them to the north.  However, the recent event with the two fishermen who came south and said they asked for asylum but were forcibly repatriated ot the north is a human rights issue.  The ROKG argued they were criminals who murdered 15 fellow fishermen.  If that was the case they should have been tried for their crimes in a South Korean court and if convicted, sentenced to a South Korean prison.  They should not have been returned to the north.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/18/world/asia/north-korea-fishermen-defectors.html

Other instances where Koreans from the north have been returned.  A soldier was washed downstream on the Imjin RIver when I was stationed on the DMZ.  ROK forces recovered him, treated him, and fed him and he was brought to Seoul.  However, he wanted to return to north Korea regardless of what offers were made to him by the South Korean government.  Since he wanted to return he was allowed to do so which I think is the right think on paper,  Unfortunately I fear that due to his extensive exposure to the South after he returned and he was exploited for propaganda purposes he was unlikely to be allowed to return to his family and friends for fear of contaminating them with knowledge of the South.  So the humanitarian gesture by the South likely resulted in another human rights atrocity.

 

8. S. Korean police fail to manage N. Korean defectors

Donga.com– by 한국어 -July. 28, 2020 

 

9. Factbox: What is known about North Korea’s possible coronavirus ‘patient zero’

Reuters – by Sangmi Cha, Josh Smith3 Min Read – July 27, 2020

I am very skeptical of the defector being “patient zero.”  That is certainly what the regime wants us to believe.  But it is likely the north had already experienced an outbreak. I hope the media does not buy into north Korean propaganda that will focus on blaming the South.

 

10. Pyongyang ‘attempting to blame Seoul’ for Covid-19

AFP – July 27, 2020

This is what we need the media to do – call out the regime and its propaganda.

 

11. Now South Korea’s Getting An Aircraft Carrier, Too

Forbes – by David Axe – July 27, 2020

 

12. U.S. vice president sends condolence letter to widow of Korean general Paik

en.yna.co.kr – by 오석민 – July 28, 2020

A very nice letter.

 

13. OHCHR | Women forcibly returned to North Korea suffer appalling violations in detention

Ohchr.org28 July 2020

Again, this is another indication of the truly evil nature of the Kim family regime. It is difficult to fathom how some pro-north Korean groups, north Korean apologists, and useful idiots in the South and the US could overlook this – except that their pro-north Korean views are stronger than their concerns for the human rights of the Korean people living in the north.  And the brutality against women is at a level that is difficult for us to grasp.  And China is complicit by forcibly repatriating Koreans to the north.

 

14. How coronavirus in North Korea could bring down Kim Jong-un

By Associated Press – Jul 28, 2020

Yes the title is hyperbolic or clickbait.  However, this could also be a perfect storm given the horrendous conditions in north Korea, the poor to nonexistent medical infrastructure in many areas, and the nature of the Kim family regime.  I am not predicting collapse but I do strongly recommend we be very observant for the indications and warnings that are laid out in Robert Collins’ seven phases of regime collapse and that we dust off and update all the past contingency planning to prepare for the worst case. 

 

15. North Korea steps up coronavirus prevention after first possible infection

Reuters – by Sangmi Cha3 Min Read – July 28, 2020

The Korean people in the north are doubly cursed.  They will suffer terribly if they are infected with the coronavirus. And they will suffer terribly as the regime implements even more brutal population and resources control measures to contain the virus.  And yet north Korean propaganda seems to be the main effort – note they are enrolling people in human trials for a coronavirus vaccine.  Of course the regime has no qualms about human testing for anything.  I doubt safety and safeguards are a factor in their “testing” if they are even going through the motions to support their propaganda.

 

16. Kim Jong-un exposed: North Korean officials beg China for vaccine as COVID-19 fears grow

Express – by Manon Dark – July 28, 2020

I guess they do not read the news.  No one has yet developed a vaccine.  Perhaps they believe China has secretly developed one. 

 

17. North Korean women faced torture, rape, malnourishment in detention, says U.N. report

Reuters – by Hyonhee Shin3 Min Read – July 28, 2020

 

18. S. Korea allowed to develop solid-fuel space rocket under revised missile guidelines with U.S.

en.yna.co.kr – by 이치동 – July 28, 2020

Of course South Korea, with its advanced technological and scientific expertise, could easily outproduce north Korea in missile (and nuclear) capability.

 

19. Defector’s border crossing captured by military’s surveillance equipment

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · July 28, 2020

What about the anti-swimming nets and other counter-infiltration defenses (which should also hinder people going north). Have they been removed?  Were they removed as a “tension reduction” measure?  Then again in the 1980s I recall a US soldier, after a night of partying, swimming across the Imjin river (north to South) but was immediately caught by a South Korea patrol) so these defenses are never 100% secure.  Then again for the defector to get through obstacles (the report describes his small stature and flexibility) I wonder if he had infiltration training when he did his military service in the north?  Or perhaps he was not a defector at all?

 

20. No unusual military movement detected in N. Korea: defense ministry

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · July 28, 2020

Sun Tzu says all warfare is based on deception.  North Korea is masterful at denial and deception.  They often show us what they want us to see.  Or sometimes they want us to see nothing to make us complacent.  I always wonder what it is we are not seeing.

 

21. Defense minister apologizes for defector’s slipping across border back to North

en.yna.co.kr – by 우재연 – July 28, 2020

I would not want to be in the Minister’s shoes, though I think I would have tried to avoid saying the military’s capabilities are not so bad as one might think. That is probably a misinterpretation or translation issue.

 

22. Unification minister urges staff to play more active role in inter-Korean policy

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · July 28, 2020

This is one of the challenges with South Korea. There is not always a clear division of labor in the ROKG. The Ministry of UNification crosses over into intelligence and foreign affairs.  And except perhaps for the north’s United Front Department it has no counterpart in other governments such as with the US government.  I think this is what makes policy coordination among the alliance more challenging and why there is such a need for a strategy working group – to which I understand the MOU is invited to send representatives but it is not in charge of.

But my real question is as the Ministry of Unification what is it doing to plan and prepare for unification and the establishment of a United republic of Korea (UROK)?  it seems to me it should be planning, preparing, educating.

…..

 

“People have only as much liberty as they have the intelligence to want and the courage to take.” 

– Emma Goldman

 

“The likelihood that your acts of resistance cannot stop the injustice does not exempt you from acting in what you sincerely and reflectively hold to be the best interests of your community.” 

– Susan Sontag

 

“I believe in the resistance as I believe there can be no light without shadow; or rather, no shadow unless there is also light.” 

– Margaret Atwood

 

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