06/08/2020 News & Commentary – National Security
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.
1. If China invades Taiwan, this is what the Fleet could look like
2. Pompeo and Trump can turn human-rights issues against China
3. US troops end hunt for brutal Ugandan warlord Joseph Kony
4. In Iraq, I raided insurgents. In Virginia, the police raided me.
5. The Real History of Antifa
6. Expert warns of Russian efforts to fuel unrest in U.S.
7. Suspect in deputy’s ambush killing is active-duty Air Force sergeant
8. Norway Scientist claims report proves Coronavirus was lab-made
9. Retreat from Germany
10. U.S. senator Scott says China trying to sabotage vaccine development
11. China suspends debt repayment for 77 developing countries, regions in Covid-19 fight
12. Beijing is pushing a new ‘front line’ in the South China Sea
13. Western powers lead new anti-China alliance
14. India and China agree to ‘peacefully resolve’ border tensions
15. China could force Donald Trump and the Fed to destroy the U.S. banking system
16. There is No Thucydides Trap between the U.S. and China
17. Danger ahead: US bumps in China’s global belt and road
18. Is Beijing preparing for backdoor military aggression against Taiwan?
19. It’s Not the Plane, it’s the Payload: A 21st-Century Solution for Armed Overwatch
20. SOCOM’s Hyper-enabled Operator: Will it work this time?
1. If China invades Taiwan, this is what the Fleet could look like
Forbes · by H I Sutton · June 7, 2020
Perhaps the worst case scenario. As I understand it there is only one beach landing site. Would PLA be able to land sufficient combat power at that site? How long could Taiwanese defense hold out?
Graphics at the link.
2. Pompeo and Trump can turn human-rights issues against China
The Hill · by Joseph Bosco, opinion contributor · June 7, 2020
Human rights are a moral imperative and a national security issue. However, we have to be prepared for the counter-propaganda campaign that China will execute. They will of course defend themselves using the current unrest in the US. They are already doing this. We can counter that by emphasizing and protecting American values to include the right to peaceably assemble and air grievances. The Chinese cannot get a pass for their human rights abuses just as we cannot give ourselves a pass for the underlying grievances that led to the current protests. The difference is we will correct our course and the Chinese Communist Party will not.
3. US troops end hunt for brutal Ugandan warlord Joseph Kony
nation.co.ke · June 7, 2020
What an evil man. When I was the G3 at USASOC, I recall some SF general officers who vehemently opposed this mission.
4. In Iraq, I raided insurgents. In Virginia, the police raided me.
The Washington Post · by Alex Horton · July 24, 2015
This is from 2015 but it is very insightful, relevant, and timely (or perhaps timeless until we reform some police practices) Alex Horton is a great American continuing to serve as part of the Fourth Estate. Few other journalists could tell a story this way – they would have had to serve in combat and have been raided by American police.
5. The Real History of Antifa
americanmind.org · by Kyle Shideler · June 7, 2020
This is a very interesting and useful history of ANTIFA. This is a useful counterview to the ABC news article I posted yesterday. I have actually heard this history now from some friends who actually grew up in communist countries in the Cold War.
This organization should be studied by all those with an interest in Small Wars (including but is not limited to all aspects of lawlessness, subversion, insurgency, terrorism, political resistance, non-violent resistance, political violence, urban operations, stability operations, post-conflict operations, cyber operations, information and influence activities e.g., (information operations, public diplomacy, psychological operations, and military information support operations), working through, with, and by indigenous forces and populations, irregular warfare, political warfare, economic warfare, alliances, diplomacy, and statecraft in all regions of the world.)
6. Expert warns of Russian efforts to fuel unrest in U.S.
unian.info · by REUTERS · June 7, 2020
This is a follow-up story to the one by the Ukrainian author Oleksandr Danylyuk, a couple of days ago. He repeats the conclusion of the previous article: “the United States is no longer an early stage of hybrid aggression.” We should be thinking hard about this.
7. Suspect in deputy’s ambush killing is active-duty Air Force sergeant
washingtontimes · by Martha Mendoza · June 7, 2020
Another person who never should have been in the military. I wonder why he was allowed to PCS in 2018 if he was under investigation for his wife’s murder.
8. Norway Scientist claims report proves Coronavirus was lab-made
Forbes · by David Nikel · June 7, 2020
Hmmm…..I wonder if this will stir something up or will it just be discounted. It will be interesting to see how China tries to quash this.
9. Retreat from Germany
WSJ · June 7, 2020
The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board considers this a win for Russia AND China. Damage to any US alliances is a win for China.
10. U.S. senator Scott says China trying to sabotage vaccine development
Reuters · June 7, 2020
I wonder what is the evidence that they are trying to sabotage vaccine development.
11. China suspends debt repayment for 77 developing countries, regions in Covid-19 fight
malaymail.com · by Debra Chong · June 7, 2020
Has China felt the heat of criticism for employing its debt trap strategy? Is it now shifting to a soft power approach? But the key point is 77 developing countries are indebted to China. And this appears to be only a suspension. They are not forgiving these loans though no details were provided.
12. Beijing is pushing a new ‘front line’ in the South China Sea
CNN · by Ben Westcott and Brad Lendon · June 7, 2020
I am reminded of Lenin here, but I am sure Mao said something similar. “probe with bayonets – If you encounter mush, proceed; if you encounter steel, withdraw.”
China is probing.
13. Western powers lead new anti-China alliance
almasdarnews.com · June 7, 2020
It will be interesting to see how this develops and what it does and what effects it can achieve. Those shared values [in the article] are individual liberty and freedom, liberal democracy, free market economy, and human rights. This is what we need to focus on and emphasize. This is how we win in the competition with the revisionist and rogue powers.
14. India and China agree to ‘peacefully resolve’ border tensions
CNBC · by Saheli Roy Choudhury · June 8, 2020
We certainly do not need a war between India and China.
15. China could force Donald Trump and the Fed to destroy the U.S. banking system
Forbes · by Billy Bambrough · June 8, 2020
Can digital currency damage our financial system?
16. There is No Thucydides Trap between the U.S. and China
realcleardefense.com · by Richard Hanania
As the title says the author argues against what is almost the conventional wisdom. But the author provides an interesting discussion of what is the trap as he tries to argue there is not one between the PRC and the US. I think the key to his argument is knowing what China wants. He thinks China’s ambitions are “moderate.” But can we really know what China wants (or more specifically the Chinese Communist Party)?
17. Danger ahead: US bumps in China’s global belt and road
SCMP · by Laura Zhou · June 8, 2020
Has the PRC over-extended itself? There will be an alternative option with the Blue Dot Network.
18. Is Beijing preparing for backdoor military aggression against Taiwan?
The American Conservative · by Ted Galen Carpenter · June 8, 2020
Mr. Carpenter provides a scenario for the Chinese – “would it attack Kinmen and Matsu-or even more tempting, against Taiping and the other remote islets?”
Of course, that begs the question, what would the US do if the PRC took such action?
19. It’s Not the Plane, it’s the Payload: A 21st-Century Solution for Armed Overwatch
thestrategybridge.org · by Vincent Wroble · June 8, 2020
20. SOCOM’s Hyper-enabled Operator: Will it work this time?
breakingdefense.com · by Paul McLeary · June 5, 2020
The North is embarking on a new propaganda campaign.
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“Even if you strive diligently on your chosen path day after day, if your heart is not in accord with it, then even if you think you are on a good path, from the point of view of the straight and true, this is not a genuine path. If you do not pursue a genuine path to its consummation, then a little bit of crookedness in the mind will later turn into a major warp. Reflect on this.”
– Musashi Miyomoto, A Book of Five Rings: The Classic Guide to Strategy
“To a disciple who was forever complaining about others, the Master said, ‘If it is peace you want, seek to change yourself, not other people. It is easier to protect your feet with slippers than to carpet the whole of the earth.'”
– Anthony de Mello
“Fast is fine but accuracy is final. You must learn to be slow in a hurry.”
– Wyatt Earp