Insurgency, Not War, Is China’s Most Likely Course of Action
Insurgency, Not War, Is China’s Most Likely Course of Action by John Vrolyk – War on the Rocks
… A great-power conflict today would involve high-intensity combat that would make World War II pale in comparison. Great-power competition, on the other hand, is likely to involve a new era of messy global entanglements, ranging from economic rivalry to intelligence operations to full-on proxy warfare and insurgency campaigns focused on the world’s most critical lines of communication. To borrow the language of my Marine instructors at The Basic School, great-power war is the enemy’s most dangerous course of action, but low-intensity conflict driven by great-power competition is the enemy’s most likely course of action. By single-mindedly preparing for the most dangerous course of action, especially in ways reliant on capabilities the nation simply no longer possesses, the Pentagon is failing to prepare for the wars America’s soldiers and marines are most likely to actually fight.
Even if a U.S.-China war did not lead directly to nuclear annihilation, it would be unimaginably destructive. The emergence of new technologies — ubiquitous surveillance, anti-access/area denial systems, hypersonics, and cyber — has dramatically enhanced the destructive power of even conventional warfare. In this environment, conventional weapons are approaching a level of destructiveness that triggers the logic of mutual assured destruction — to say nothing of the possibility of mutual assured economic destruction. Furthermore, in this environment, hypersonic missiles, infrastructure-targeting cyber capabilities, or militarized quantum-based AIs are more likely to be decisive than infantry divisions…