Obama Thinks His Syria Strategy is Right — And Folks Just Don’t Get It
Obama Thinks His Syria Strategy is Right — And Folks Just Don’t Get It by Karen DeYoung, Washington Post
… Throughout the nine-day trip, which had begun less than 24 hours after the terrorist attacks in Paris, he had listened to critics at home and abroad charge that he had no coherent game plan. Some had even suggested that France, with tough talk and a series of retaliatory air strikes, was now leading the anti-terrorism fight.
The message they had received on the road was “jarring,” said a senior administration official who was on the flight. The problem wasn’t the strategy, they agreed. That “was clear to all of us, sitting in the Sit[uation] Room, in briefings every day. We all know what we are doing.”
What they needed was to do a better job of explaining it. Obama ordered what the official called an “uptick in our communications tempo.”…
We are off and running in 2016 with the continuing Russian non linear war in both eastern Ukraine and especially in Syria……with a US President that absolutely does not understand political warfare nor UW and is afraid to employ hard power together with soft power.
IE—-the UNSC has urgently called for the stopping of bombing that is killing deliberately Syrian civilians–BTW the US was for that resolution—-and it took a major social media push on the massive killings that are ongoing and still ongoing being deliberately conducted by both the Assad and the Russian AFs THAT finally got at least the DoS to issue a statement and call the Russian FM.
IT should not have taken social media to push DoS and Obama.
Obama could have first warned via back channels Putin that he has gone to far and if the killing has not stopped THEN he could have moved the debate into the UNSC and presented the massive amount of video footage and HWR/AI reporting to force a stop—if that did not reign in Putin then he could in fact allow US assets to fly circles over the respective cities being badly bombed forcing the RuAF to restrict their bombings.
BUT from Obama absolutely nothing.
We are even seeing his reluctance on further sanctions on the extremely active Iranian ballistic missile tests and further development which are in FULL violation of the UNSC resolutions on their missile development AS well as finally calling out Putin on the clear Russian violations on INF. Obama is even sidestepping a full informing of Congress on the Russian INF violations.
AND the Russian strikes on civilians just keeps on keeping……..
Who is using #Russian cluster munitions such as RBK-500 in #Syria? #RuAF or #SyAFF which is under Russian control?
pic.twitter.com/lrAI2gYcsn
By the way—-messaging will not solve Russian non linear warfare being used to achieve a Putin political war.
Yet another show of strength by the Obama White House
Breaking: White House delays imposing new financial sanctions on Iran
http://www.wsj.com
If Obama REALLLLLY thinks his Syrian strategy is working then why does one see this coming in from a Syrian activist……??????
Funny. Russians bombing Sunnis, Shias beheading Sunnis in Syria & not one “peace loving” western leftist is speaking up.
The gloves are off. The opposition cannot be blamed for anything they do anymore against such a genocidal enemy.
Just wait & see what Rebels have in store. I’m not giving any info & I advise all activists to keep silent for a while.
I have been criticizing this President for his sheer lack of a strategy which is amazing for a Harvard graduate….HE has actually been implementing a solid a la Wilson retrenchment program AND selling it or better in his own words….”messaging” that retrenchment to the US civil society ALL the while not putting into place a foreign policy foundation that other nation states can fully understand.
He completely failed in recognizing the Russian and Iranian non linear warfare coupled to Putin’s political warfare three core geo political goals;
1. damage and discredit EU
2. damage and discredit NATO
3. completely disconnect the US from Europe and the entire ME
It is highly recommended to read this entire article and then sit back and think about it based on the daily reality that is directly opposite of what this President and his NSC is trying to “message”.
http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/three-areas-where-us-foreign-policy-went-wrong-in-2015
Garden in September. —Associated Press
My fellow Think Tank contributor (and sometime co-author) Brian Katulis says that for “the Obama administration, 2015 brought ups and downs in foreign policy.” This is far too rosy an assessment, though it is sober compared with the State Department’s review of its 2015 accomplishments, which included “Winning Fight Against Violent Extremists” and “Bringing Peace, Security to Syria.” The last year has been one of serious strategic setbacks, falling roughly into three categories:
1. Failure to respond to assertive great-power challengers. In 2015, China intensified its campaign to build and militarize artificial islands in the South China Sea, with the likely goal of strengthening its territorial claim within the “nine-dash line” and limiting other states’ freedom of action in the area. Russia deployed military forces to the Middle East–in direct opposition to U.S.-supported groups–and consolidated its annexation of Crimea while maintaining or deepening support for separatists in Ukraine in defiance of the Minsk cease-fire agreement.
The U.S. has not mustered an effective response in either case. After years of hand-wringing, the White House authorized a Freedom of Navigation Operation in the South China Sea that may have inadvertently strengthened the rights China claims in the area. As for Ukraine, although the U.S. and its allies maintain their sanctions regime against Russia, they could not eliminate dependencies on Moscow, which might prove debilitating in future conflicts. Meanwhile in Syria, the U.S. concedes that Moscow is meeting its goals so far while insisting it is doomed to fail.
2. Lapsed focus on outcomes. The Obama administration frequently cites the Iran nuclear deal as a marquee accomplishment. Achieving U.S. objectives through diplomacy would have been laudable, but the nuclear deal was possible precisely because the U.S. laid aside its objectives. Iran made concessions but also largely achieved its strategic aims: retaining its nuclear weapons capability and resisting demands for a broader “strategic shift” in its support for terrorism and regional policies. Iran also received sanctions relief that is broader in practice than on paper, all in exchange for temporary limits on its nuclear fuel-cycle activities.
Secretary of State John Kerry has said that “diplomacy is the art of the possible.” Yet administration officials fail to comprehend how U.S. action, or inaction, can shape what is possible. This was clear in Afghanistan, where President Barack Obama was forced to face the consequences of prematurely announcing a U.S. withdrawal. It is increasingly clear in Syria, where the White House, despite foreseeing the dangers posed by the conflict, is shifting objectives in response to others’ actions rather than taking the initiative.
3. Weakened alliances. President Obama frequently contrasts what his administration calls the 19th-century behavior of some states to the rules-based order he prefers. Yet, as President Obama has noted, rules and norms do not enforce themselves; international order is threatened not only by overt challenges but also by others’ failure to defend it. The challenges described above should have been opportunities to cement alliances in the face of common threats: to deepen ties with Japan and India in the face of Chinese expansionism; to unite with Mideast allies against threats from Iran and Syria; and to unite Europe in defiance of Russian actions in Ukraine.
Instead, these opportunities have largely been missed. U.S. allies in Asia have been alarmed by what they perceive as Washington’s failure to follow through on a promised “pivot” to the region and its failure to back up “red lines” elsewhere. In the Middle East, the Iran deal and U.S. confusion in Syria have strained already weakened ties with Israel and Arab states. A White House effort to assuage the concerns of Gulf Cooperation Council states was both belated and off the mark, focused on expanding U.S. assistance rather than accommodating allies’ concerns over U.S. policy. Weakened alliances mean that U.S. power is diluted and our allies tend to act independently of the United States and of each other in ways that complicate our efforts.
The list could continue; for example, neglect of the domestic component of foreign policy could shift the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement from a success into a failure thanks to opposition from the president’s own party.
The Obama record in 2015 suggests that our post-Cold War struggle to determine how best to shepherd and use U.S. power continues; for the overreach of the Iraq war, diffidence has been substituted. The primary challenge in 2016 and onward will be how to deploy the United States’ still-immense strength judiciously, proactively, and multilaterally to resolve conflicts to our advantage and to prevent new ones from emerging.
Michael Singh is managing director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. From 2005 to 2008, he worked on Middle East issues at the National Security Council. He is on Twitter: @MichaelSinghDC.
I guess this is why we see the comments from the JTF spokesman in Iraq defending the strategy and with talk about developing a better narrative for the strategy (See article at this link: http://thehill.com/policy/defense/264219-us-military-drafting-new-narrative-for-isis-war)
More support for my belief that Putin has three core geo political warfare goals…..and this pertains to NATO..and thus the extension to Europe and the US…
Putin labels #NATO a security threat.
http://cnn.it/22ClLWX
pic.twitter.com/AQeHPLvm8H
Putin has already started a non linear warfare push against the NATO member Turkey using the PKK and IS— YET this WH calls on the Turks for “restraint” and YET he does nothing when Iran is in clear violation of the UNSC missile sanctions….
Simply put—nothing but Obama double standards and his attempting to get through the next 13 months without having to use hard power that would damage his so called “legacy”..
He should be concerned about his messaging…no one actually believes it any more when faced with the true reality of the current world events and Obama’s distinct lack of action.
FURTHER Russian evidence to their current actions against NATO…THAT Obama is so intent on ignoring……
“It is time to correct the mistake by Gorbachev“ #Russia #Baltics #Turkey #Nato
http://news.rambler.ru/head/32327873
World | Fri Jan 1, 2016 9:58am EST
U.S.-backed alliance advances against Islamist groups in Syria’s north: spokesman
BEIRUT
YPG seized 2 villages from the rebels west of Azaz within their campaign to occupy the border town
The “#SDF” is openly fighting the #FSA/Ahrar and other groups with US backing. The media is loving it.
http://reut.rs/1PBfiV8
Quote:
A U.S.-backed alliance of Syrian Kurdish and Arab fighters advanced against Islamist insurgents in the north of the country on Friday, capturing at least one village in Aleppo province, a spokesman and a monitoring group said.
Fighters from the Democratic Forces of Syria seized the village of Tanab near the town of Azaz after heavy clashes with the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front and the powerful Ahrar al Sham, spokesman Talal Selo told Reuters.
“We liberated Tanab,” he said.
Britain-based monitoring group the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the Democratic Forces of Syria had also captured the village of Tat Mrash. Selo said he could not yet confirm its capture.
It came just days after the alliance seized a dam from Islamic State further east, cutting one of its main supply routes across the Euphrates.
Since the U.S.-backed alliance was formed last October, its fighters have opened several major offensives against Islamic State with the ultimate goal of capturing Raqqa.
The alliance has separately been fighting in recent weeks against Nusra Front, Ahrar al Sham and other insurgents in northern Aleppo province.
The Democratic Forces of Syria includes the Kurdish YPG militia, which has been the most effective partner on the ground for U.S.-led air strikes.
Kurdish gains around Azaz, which is near the Turkish border, are also likely to increase concern in Turkey about growing Kurdish sway near the frontier. Ankara is fighting an insurgency against Kurdish PKK fighters in its southeast.
Washington’s strategy in Syria shifted in 2015 from trying to train thousands of fighters outside the country to supplying groups headed by U.S.-vetted commanders.
The U.S. military estimates the Democratic Forces of Syria has captured around 1,000 square kilometers of terrain in the past six weeks or so, bolstered by coalition air strikes.
BUT then this today from the Syrian 2016 by CrowBat………
By best will, I cannot ‘criticise this president’ any more: he’s simply a stupid babbler.
Here the best illustration for that: the SDF (YPG + Jaysh at-Thuwar FSyA) are assaulting western side of Azaz Corridor again – and they are brazen enough to call all the other insurgents there – no matter if FSyA, AAS or JAN – for ‘Islamists’….
Quote:
A U.S.-backed alliance of Syrian Kurdish and Arab fighters advanced against Islamist insurgents in the north of the country on Friday, capturing at least one village in Aleppo province, a spokesman and a monitoring group said.
…
One is left to wonder: if the stated US objective in Syria is to support those that ‘fight Daesh’, then why isn’t this gang deployed to go fighting Daesh?
CrowBat is offline Report Post
APPEARS both Obama and Putin have one thing in common BOTH are not attacking Islamic state BUT rather the anti Assad forces…..WHY is that???
Obama’s Syrian strategy MUST address the role of Iran as well as Russia AND it does not WHILE Obama is clinging to his Iran Deal as key to his so called “legacy”…he hopes and hope has never been a strategy hopes that Iran will moderate within the next 20 years.
BUT……
Khamanie dying from cancer, condition worsening & arguments about his succession pic.twitter.com/qrebn78CCz
I had posted here at SWJ a short comment that the coming replacement for Khamanie is rumored to be a VERSION 3 of Khomenie…..WHICH does not bode well for Syria and or Iranian ballistic missiles OR and this is critical “moderation”……
Obama never seems to learn either from reality and or history…..so much for the vaulted Harvard experience…maybe he should have studied at the University of Texas or Rice University where they have great ME departments……….
U.S. lawmakers blast the White House for delaying new sanctions on Tehran over missiles http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-lawmakers-blast-delay-on-iran-sanctions-1451694590 …
There is one valid question that could be actually asked about the Obama Syria strategy….does he really want to fight Islamic State???
Right now the moves made by the US seem in fact to support the expansion of the Kurdish controlled regions inside Syria and have nothing to do in supporting those anti Assad forces that are actually fighting both Assad AND the Islamic State…….
Taken from a CrowBat comment over on the Syrian 2016 thread…….
CrowBat—–there were some recent comments concerning the lack of action by the Southern Front which was supposedly ordered by the MOC and their low TOW firings for December and that they had not been receiving any TOW resupply.
CrowBat response……..
Yup. My impression is that – because Jordan is relatively poor and heavily dependent on US support for survival – USA have it easier to exercise pressure upon local government and security agencies in relation to ‘aid’ these are providing to the insurgents.
Thus, a long-prepared ‘big offensive’ on Dera’a didn’t happen, the last two months. On the contrary, this frontline was actually ‘exceptionally quiet’.
On the contrary, USA obviously – and despite some fierce pressure – didn’t manage to force Turkey to cease its support. That’s why supplies continue to flow into northern Syria. On the contrary, Ankara even issued open threats related to SDF (read: YPG) presence west of Euphrates…
I wouldn’t be surprised if that was one of topics during recent meeting between Erdo and Sadm…. erm… Salman.
CrowBat is offline
Interesting from one of the ex colonial powers that has basically caused this mess in Syrian YET refuses to accept their responsibility in that mess………
French ambassador to USA @GerardAraud defends burning of Saudi embassy, says “Iran was obliged to react.” https://twitter.com/HillelNeuer/status/683416245438418944 …
If one reads the sermons by the executed Shia cleric then in fact if a Sunni had said the same thing it would have happened to them as well.
One might go as far back as Jesus and say the same thing…meaning if one decides to speak truth to power one might end up dead if the power bear does not like what is being said ie the Romans…
The West would do well in fully understanding this in the ME—the Syrian civil society did just this and are still paying the genocidal price for it….BUT at least they made a choice…..as a civil society and the West would do well to remember that going forward.
How is that Syrian strategy really working…….?
Assad and Russian use of starvation as a weapon system……….
Activists: 40k Syrian civilians slowly starving to death in town of Madaya, encirlced by landmines, Hezbollah forces http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo…-a6793386.html …
Cost of 1kg of basic items in Assad besieged Madaya today:
Semolina Wheat $238
Oil $208
Bulgur $208
Sugar $178
Let’s not forget the Iranian & Russian roles in this starvation. That’s why US approach to both in Syria is perverse
How is that Syrian strategy really working…….?
Russian AF flying sir strike missions and ground support missions for US supported YPG which is just another name for the so called SDF which the US tries to claim includes the FSA……..BUT it is just another Kurdish invasion army taking over Arab towns and villages……AND the Obama Syrian strategy is really working…??????
After dozens of Russian airstrikes in support of YPG/JT offensive on liberated areas in N. #Aleppo, YPG/JT have recaptured Kashta’ar again
YPG/JT v. happy. Russian airstrikes again targeted liberated areas of Mar’anaz, Kafrantoun, Tal Ajar, al-Ziayara & Deir Jamal in N. #Aleppo
How perverse is this….?
One fact that just keeps on getting lost in the WH……..
The death of 1793 individuals in Dec 2015 by the influential parties in Syria. – SNHR
1. Assad
2. Russia
3. IS/Daesh
pic.twitter.com/FZwRsVUbFI
Taken from the Syrian 2016 thread today………
Russia has a ‘plan B’ for #Syria that would allow it to ‘redefine the international order’
http://read.bi/1OESGWw
pic.twitter.com/qSc5DCMwS5
CrowBat response…….
Considering amounts of absurdities launched by Russians, Assadists, IRGC and ‘friends’, I do not even understand why anybody bothers to ‘find out’ what are Russians about to do in Syria?
Putler is obviously curious at using this ‘crisis’ to distract from the mess he’s created at home. It’s as simple as that.
In such situations, there’s no ‘plan B’: like Nikolay II in 1914-1917, or Galtieri in 1982, he’ll ‘ride the wave’ as long as it goes – and then the entire house of cards is going to collapse in a big bang…
BTW, for those ‘confused’ by all the reports citing ‘SAA’ did this’, ‘in cooperation with NDF’ and all other sorts of similar hogwash… or prone to ‘disbelieve’ my reports on the number of IRGC-run gangs of Hezbollah and Shi’a Jihadist gangs in Syria, and low numbers of ‘Syrian’ units still fighting for Assad (or, better said: on his side, not really for him)… well, see the illustration below.
Add the insignia of the NDF, SSNP, BPM and other militias to that illustration, and then compare what you get to see on so many of photos supposedly showing ‘SyAA/SAA’ or whatever else, that are launched by regime-fans on Twitter, FB, etc.
Namely, it’s the presence of all of these groups – and not some illusion about that famed super-turbo-wunderwaffen Russian air farce – that has enabled ‘the regime’ to went on offensive after (once again) reaching the brink of collapse. Without them, the regime had – at best – approx the same number of combatants like the FSyA alone (means: less if one adds all of the IF, AAS, and JAN, and not to talk about the Daesh)…
(Note: I purposedly named this file ‘SyAA Units’; as a declared and dedicated sarcast, couldn’t but do so because – with one exception – not one of units in question is from Syria…)
Nasrallah: The greatest jihad today is standing against Āl Saud
So is Nasrallah in the name of Iran calling for a true war against KSA???
REMEMBER Putin’s UNGA press conference where he stated that he did not want to get involved in a “religious” war?????
Well he now has one………..
Nasrallah: Saudis want a sectarian war between Sunni-Shia in the whole region
Nasrallah: The Shia should be careful not to make it Sunni-Shia, this will help the Saudis who killed Al-Nimr & want sect war
Nasrallah: Saudis are source of takfiri ideology which create the problems all over the world. ISIS = Saudis
Nasrallah: There is a region called Arabian Peninsula which through tyranny was named Saudi; there are oppressed people there
Nasrallah: Why are you going to the details but missing the obvious? Saudis are the mother,father,inventor of takfiri groups
Nasrallah: This support and actions by the Saudis must be stopped
Again based on the constant failures of Obama in the ME based on his decision to do an unilateral retrenchment in both the ME and eastern Europe…Obama and the US have no further influence at least in the ME.
Putin has achieved one of his main core geo political goals at least in the ME and Obama and Kerry seem to not care………
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia (AP) — The latest developments after Saudi Arabia executes a prominent opposition Shiite cleric convicted of terrorism charges, sparking anger in Iran and among Shiites across the region (All times local).
1:45 a.m.
A person familiar with the Saudi government’s thinking in Washington says the kingdom severed relations with Iran because “enough was enough,” adding that Riyadh was less concerned with how its decision affects diplomatic efforts led by the United States, including the Syrian peace talks or the Iran nuclear deal.
The person, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss diplomacy, said Sunday that the Saudi government is tired of what it sees as Tehran “thumbing its nose at the West,” including the recent launch of ballistic missiles, while no one does anything about it.
“Every time Iran does something, the United States backs off,” the person said.
Saudi Arabia announced it was cutting diplomatic relations with Iran after protesters stormed the Saudi embassy in Tehran. The protests erupted after Saudi Arabia executed a prominent Shiite cleric.
— By Wendy Benjaminson, Associated Press
___
1:30 a.m.
U.S. State Department Spokesperson John Kirby says Washington is aware of Saudi Arabia’s decision to close Iranian diplomatic missions in the kingdom, but believes “that diplomatic engagement and direct conversations remain essential in working through differences.”
Kirby, in a statement issued Sunday, said the U.S. “will continue to urge leaders across the region to take affirmative steps to calm tensions.”
The Saudi decision to sever diplomatic relations with Iran comes amid rising tensions over the execution of a prominent Saudi Shiite cleric.
___
Further reality that nothing Kerry and Obama state to the press means anything……remember their statement….”we have a milestone”…..THEN…”we will bring up with Putin the deliberate killing of civilians via air strikes” ONLY after massive social media pressure on the massive killings that were AND or still ongoing coupled with a deliberate starvation campaign…..EXACTLY the same Russian tactics we have seen in eastern Ukraine……
WELL this is the reality……that apparently Kerry and Obama are somehow not seeing…..
150+ #Russia’n airstrikes in past week fully wipped out Shayk Maskin city in southern #Syria
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KpkjtKcQCiY …
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=32…60727&z=14&m=b …
BTW—-not a single Islamic State position anywhere near this town BUT a lot of anti Assad forces in and near this town..
Iran missiles hit 1500 yards away from US ships and State Dept thinks execution of Saudi cleric raises tensions
BUT WAIT the Iranians stated they did not fire any missiles BUT WAIT they declare they have the right to continue developing nuclear capable ballistic missiles and to violate the UNSC resolutions on those same missiles….
http://m.state.gov/md250934.htm
So how is exactly that Obama Syrian strategy working these days since Iran is heavily engaged inside Syria along side Russia.
I posted here about three weeks ago a long article which came out of KSA– heavily critiquing the Obama ME politics and lack of leadership…….
BREAKING: ‘The #Saudi kingdom “does not care” if it has angered the White House’ – Saudi source tells @Reuters
Would highly suggest Obama and Kerry both reread that article as it goes to the core of how exactly the KSA is “now growing up” and establishing their regional power that in some ways has always been restricted by the US…..
Saudi FM: Iran has been defeated in Yemen and the Iranians won’t be able to save Assad in Syria. https://twitter.com/IkhwanSyria/status/683749788249096197Saudi …
Will we hearing the echo of the anti-Iran rhetoric, and the improved Turkish relations, in Syria in coming days/weeks? Aleppo in particular?
If so, Saudi Arabia could easily end the restrictions on #ATGM, Mortars, ammo and fully open the Pipeline. +SAM’s…
Someone convince me this was not part of the “Syrian strategy”……and not a Presidndet lying to Congress and the US public about what he and Kerry supposedly negotitated…….in the Name of his legacy……
WSJ: #IranDeal critics nailed it. Deal disables US from responding to #Iran aggression
http://buff.ly/1OExUXk
pic.twitter.com/RBIq4osgvQ
Just when you think things could not be getting any stranger……..think again…….
Russian officers seem to suddenly be having “heart attacks” a mass…….
Within a week Russia’s Military Intel chief Sergun & Airborne troops General Shushukin died.Both involved in Ukraine
pic.twitter.com/zI7HfOWoU4
A week ago the general who led the invasion of Crimea died. Today the head of Russia’s mil intelligence (GRU) died (invovled in Crimea and eastern Ukraine). Putin killing witnesses?
Deaths of top Russian military recently possibly due to:
a) Kremlin purge;
b) excessive New Year celebration;
c) something else.
Appears that the Obama Iran Deal has cost Obama what little leverage he and Kerry had……especially with the warm up between the KSA and Israel and Turkey and Israel….
Arab League will convene an emergency meeting next Sunday at the request of Saudi Arabia to condemn “Iranian interference in Arab affairs
Iran might be making a historic mistake by forcing a more aggressive/activist geopolitical change in Saudi Arabia
Struggle btw Riyadh & Tehran for influence has geopolitical implications far beyond Gulf argues @Dr_Ulrichsen
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35219693 …
Sudan has expelled the Iranian ambassador over attacks on the Saudi embassy: Al Arabiya. Gulf News
http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/saudi-…etic-1.1647717
The new Saudi Arabia: assertive and unapologetic
There is a new belief that proactive policies could achieve favourable results in the region
Published: 18:04 January 3, 2016 Gulf News
AFP
Dubai: Iran betted in the past on a hesitant foreign and domestic Saudi policy, but over the past year, things have completely changed and Riyadh has assumed a position that is rather provocative towards Tehran, said Mahjoob Al Zweiri, professor of Middle Eastern studies at Qatar University.
Nearly a year ago, King Salman succeeded his half brother Abdullah as the monarch of the regional heavyweight.
He brought along his nephew Mohammad Bin Nayef as crown prince and interior minister and his own young and ambitious son Mohammad as a deputy crown prince and defence minister.
In March, Saudi Arabia took the unforeseen step of leading an Arab military intervention in neighbouring Yemen, launching an air campaign against Iran-backed Al Houthi militants in support of Yemen’s legitimate president Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi.
Last month, Riyadh brought Syrian political and armed opposition factions together for unprecedented talks, reflecting its rising profile in efforts to end the war.
Shortly after – and completely unexpectedly – Defence Minister Prince Mohammad announced the formation of a 34-nation coalition against Islamist “terrorism”.
“Riyadh presses ahead with its actions without giving much thought to reactions,” said Al Zweiri.
“It seems that there is a belief now that proactive and determined policies by Saudi Arabia could achieve results, including responding to Iran and its policies in the region,” he said.
The boldness was reflected in Saturday’s comments from the Saudi Interior Ministry. “We are completely confident with what we’re doing and we believe in it and do not care how others view our procedures, whether on justice or implementation of sentences,” said spokesman Mansour Al Turki.
Too little too late…..and absolutely no influence since Obama and Kerry went full in on the Iran Deal…for the Sunni Front States Obama and Kerry in fact support Putin in his killing of Sunni’s by Shia mercenaries…..AND the RuAF
White House goes into damage control on Syria peace talks via @POLITICO http://politi.co/1mvmvg2
pic.twitter.com/O2rwVXc83F
Iran got carried away talking so tough warmongering, terror sponsoring & death chants but knows Saudi can turn Sunni world against Iran
Kuwait has called back their Iranian Ambassador……
Al Arabiya English Verified account
@AlArabiya_Eng #BreakingNews Correspondent: Iranian letter to Security Council expressing sorrow over what had happened to Saudi embassy
Bullies are deep down the biggest wimps. Iran is now begging & apologizing
Very true. Obama kept supporting Iran for his legacy allowing them to massacre Sunnis & holding the Saudis back. Too late now
Notice the US says nothing……
Russian non linear warfare has two key cornerstones…..info warfare and cyber warfare.
Russia cyber warfare has been turned loose by Putin now……
Eliot Higgins @EliotHiggins
Interesting, the host of @Checkdesk where we do our Russian airstrike verification is under DDoS attack since Dec 25
http://status.linode.com
Concerning – “highly destructive” malware has caused several days of blackouts in Western #Ukraine
http://arstechnica.com/security/2016…ng-escalation/ …
OUTLAW 09 is online now Report Post
All that is needed is “more messaging” —-appears to not be impacting in Syria as the killing fields there just keep on killing and while “Obama steps up the messaging” that is about all he does in the face of the relentless Russian killing of civilians………….just from this morning and notice NOT a single RuAF air strike on Islamic State….NOW that is a “message” that should be shouted daily at the UNSC….nothing but utter silence from Obama and company…..
Bombs are flying
People are dying
Children are crying
Politicians are lying
SAA warplanes carried out airstrikes targeting #Marj area
#Damascus #Syria JAN 6
More than 35 Barrel Bombs so far ONLY in #Darayya since morning
#Damascus #Syria JAN 6
SAA helicopters target #Deir_Asafir town with a Guided Missiles
#MI25 #Damascus cs #SYria JAN 6
SAA shelling heavy artillery targeting #Jobar neighborhood
#Damascus #Syria JAN 6
4 martyrs so far & 20+ wounded due #SAA shelling w/ #RUssia Cluster Bombs on #Douma
#Damascus #Syria JAN 6
Rebels destroyed #SAA Cannon 14.5 in #Sheikh_Meskin
#Daraa #Syria JAN 6
SAA lost several mercenaries in #Sheikh_Meskin,they ask their leaders to intensify shelling bcoz difficulty of remove wounded
#Syria JAN6
Newly formed #Ashaar Army(part of #Raqqa Rebels Front) was disintegrated due to disagreement between them and the #Kurdish Units
Russia warplanes carried out airstrikes targeting #Kiyndah village
#Latakia cs #Syria JAN 6
#Syria JAN6
Russia warplanes carried out airstrikes targeting #Kansabah village
#Latakia cs #Syria JAN 6
US_Coalition carried out airstrikes targeting #Ain_Esa town
SAA shelling with Grad Rockets targeting #Shashabo_Mount
#Hama cs #Syria JAN 6
Remnants of #Russia soviet 3O8 240mm rocket-assisted cargo projectiles targeting #Douma
#Damascus cs #Syria JAN 6
Russia warplanes carried out airstrikes on #Salma village
#Latakia #Syria JAN 6
Russia warplanes carried out airstrikes targeting #Turkmen_Mount
#Latakia #Syria JAN 6
Russia warplanes carried out airstrikes targeting #Kurds_Mount
#Latakia #Syria JAN 6
Who those SWJ readers who really do not want to believe the US/Obama has fully swung over to the Iranian/Putin/Shia positions DO read the following…AND YET we wonder why the KSA is acting in it’s own self interests……….?????
HERE is exactly why the KSA is disconnecting now from the US and it is the specific fault of Obama no one else and “blaming others” just does not cut it any longer……..
https://www.yahoo.com/news/provoke-peril-obama-administration-sending-212012154.html
‘Provoke at your peril’: The Obama administration is sending a ‘message’ to Saudi Arabia
Natasha Bertrand
Saudi Arabia cut off all diplomatic ties with Iran on Sunday, after Iranian protesters ransacked and set fire to the Saudi embassy in Tehran amid a row over the kingdom’s execution of a prominent Shiite cleric.
The US State Department on Saturday criticized Saudi Arabia’s execution of Nimr al-Nimr.
It issued a statement expressing concern that Riyadh’s actions were “exacerbating sectarian tensions.” On Monday, State Department spokesman John Kirby noted that Iran had arrested some protesters who ransacked the embassy, undercutting the Saudi claim that Iran’s government had an implicit hand in the embassy attack.
This comment, and the administration’s overall response to the spat, has led some experts to wonder whose side the White House is really on.
Tony Badran, a Middle East expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said he believes the Obama administration has set a “very dangerous precedent” not only by failing to express support for its ally, but also by framing the conflict as a Sunni-Shiite religious war.
Indeed, White House press secretary Josh Earnest said on Monday that the conflict “breaks down along sectarian lines.” He said the US had raised “direct concerns” to Saudi officials in advance “about the potential damaging consequences of following through on the execution” of al-Nimr.
“Unfortunately, the concerns that we expressed to the Saudis have precipitated the kinds of consequences that we were concerned about,” Earnest said.
But this rhetoric, Badran said, only adds fuel to Iran’s argument that the execution of al-Nimr “was a deliberate provocation” against Iran and its Shiite allies — which, in turn, implies that Iran is a legitimate representative of the region’s Shiite Muslims.
“The White House is therefore sending a new message to Saudi Arabia,” Badran added. “‘Provoke at your peril.'”
That message, Badran said, is sent in conjunction with the Obama administration’s vision for a new Middle East order — one in which Iran plays a central, if not leading, role. That vision, Badran believes, stems from Obama’s desire to preserve a nuclear deal that will be the cornerstone of his foreign-policy legacy.
“Attacks on Saudi diplomats are attacks on the US order in the Middle East,” Badran said, referring to Saudi Arabia’s long-time status as a major US ally. “By not stepping up to defend that order, the US has essentially given Iran permission to try and tear it down.”
Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator who is a vice president at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, echoed this sentiment in an interview with Bloomberg View.
“The Iranians hold the Obama legacy in their hands,” said Miller, who worked in the State Department for more than two decades. “We are constrained and we are acquiescing to a certain degree to ensure we maintain a functional relationship with the Iranians.”
Other analysts have suggested that Iran’s rising influence in the region led an increasingly isolated Saudi Arabia to push back against Iran and its allies, partly explaining the decision to execute al-Nimr.
“The key source of Saudi anxiety is Iran,” the political-risk firm Eurasia Group noted in its 2016 analysis of the top risks to the world. “Soon to be free of sanctions, Iran’s economy will strengthen, and its government will have more money to spend in support of regional clients.”
But Badran said the US maintaining that functional relationship is key to the success of what he termed as the administration’s “misguided approach to Syria,” which aims to minimize US involvement in the conflict while recognizing Iran as a legitimate stakeholder in the country’s future.
That policy was articulated most clearly in November when Russian officials, with the US’s blessing, invited Iran to Vienna to participate in peace talks over Syria for the first time since the war erupted in 2011.
The invitation was “in line with Obama’s long-held perception of Syria as an Iranian sphere of influence, and his desire to legitimize Iran as a regional interlocutor of the US,” Badran said at the time. “Indeed, that was the whole point of the Iran deal — to establish a broader regional partnership with the Iranians.”
Last week, an abrupt about-face from the administration also contributed to this perception.
It originally informed Congress that it would sanction Iran for violating a UN resolution and testing ballistic missiles at least twice in 2015. But it quickly backed away from those sanctions, indicating that it will take a lot — much more than a spat between Saudi Arabia and Iran — to derail a new relationship nearly eight years in the making.
Especially since, as Brookings’ executive vice president told The New York Times on Monday: “We haven’t been on the same page with the Saudis for a long time.”
Since when is the 70% majority Sunni nation state called Syria under the direct sphere of influence in the ME????
OR is Obama now complicit in establishing what Khomeini called “the Green Crescent” going from AFG to Lebanon…..?
Can anyone at SWJ clearly explain that??
SO if in fact Obama now fully supports the Shia nation state Iran in taking over full control of Syria basically a Sunni nation state WHAT does that then say to the rest of the Arab world and the global Sunni Community….??
So in effect that explains the great reluctance of Obama in calling out the Russians and Assad with Iranian assistance over the massive killing of Sunni civilians…does it not??
Taken from the article below……worth rereading the paragraphs a couple of times to fully understand the US FP swing in the ME…..
But Badran said the US maintaining that functional relationship is key to the success of what he termed as the administration’s “misguided approach to Syria,” which aims to minimize US involvement in the conflict while recognizing Iran as a legitimate stakeholder in the country’s future.
That policy was articulated most clearly in November when Russian officials, with the US’s blessing, invited Iran to Vienna to participate in peace talks over Syria for the first time since the war erupted in 2011.
The invitation was “in line with Obama’s long-held perception of Syria as an Iranian sphere of influence, and his desire to legitimize Iran as a regional interlocutor of the US,” Badran said at the time. “Indeed, that was the whole point of the Iran deal — to establish a broader regional partnership with the Iranians.”
We are so uninformed by our MSM on what is ongoing in Syria…either because of disinterest on the part of their readers and or a deliberate censorship by the corporate MSM because it does not “sell newspapers”…….
For up to date info from the Assad/Hezbollah starvation sieges of Madaya, Zabadani and Moadamiyah …
Journalists who want to cover SIEGES, contact:
#Madaya: (@raedbrh Skype ra2d1989)
#Zabadani;(@ward_alyafe)
#Moadamiyah;(@Dani_Qappani
Assad creates ‘Warsaw Ghettos’ of starving civilians and the World yawns. Hitlers dream comes true…….
Assad moving down the Orontes, threat of starvation-siege for pockets of resistance in south Hama/north Homs
http://mme.cm/HPAW00
BUT Hey then the US backs off in support for the KSA in favor of Iran and Hezbollah….does that make any sense…..AND then Obama wonders why KSA does no longer trust the US…does that make sense to any first year IR student and Obama is a Havard grad…….
OR has anyone seen extensive US MSM reporting on the use of starvation as an Assad/Putin Sunni cleansing battlefield tactic…..??
NOTICE BTW–not a single comment by Obama and or Kerry……
Wonder if Obama ever doubts himself……..BUT if he is honest with himself his so called Syrian strategy is absolutely not working……???
Taken from the Syria 2016 thread…….
News of the day on battlefields of Syria is that the regime is moving two new ‘brigades’ into north-eastern Lattakia:
– Liwa Assad Allah al-Ghalib (about 1000 motorized infantry from Abu Fadhl al-Abbas movement); and
– Liwa Suqour as-Sahra (BPM’s Desert Hawks Brigade).
While regime fans are already announcing a next big (in terms of ‘final’) offensive there, this is actually a rather amazing admission of failure on that front. Namely, in three months of assaulting positions of what is now the Sultan Murad Division FSyA (fmr. 1st and 2nd Coastal Divisions), the regime has spent (literally) the 103rd Brigade RGD, Liwa Dir as-Sahel RGD/NDF and two extra ‘Alawites-only’ battalions, Liwa Nusr az-Zawba SSNP, al-Hosn PMC, and Muqawama as-Syria TSR, one brigade of Hezbollah/Lebanon (over 100 KIA in early December), and two battalions of the Russian Army (reportedly up to 50 KIA in December)… for a gain of 5km…
…and now they’re sending Hezbollah/Iraq and BPM to ‘win instead’…?
Also: if BPM’s Liwa Suqour as-Sahra was re-deployed away from Palmyra (where it was involved in combat during all of December), this effectively means that the regime’s offensive on Daesh-held Palmyra is over too.
But OK. Namely, that’s perfectly in fashion of what never stops amazing me about Assad-fans:
– their union in insistence on twisting the truth, and
– their insistence on supporting regime’s insistence on bolstering failures.
Related to this is also my second point: this incredible insistence on bolstering failures by Assadist, IRGC, and now Russian wannabe-Napoleons is nothing short of… nah, ‘amazing’ is not doing it… ‘almost shocking’. Even the IRGC has given up trying to punch through over the M5 in southern Aleppo.
BUT, Alawites keep on insisting on that battle in NE Lattakia – although they should know very well they have failed to break through in three months of trying; they’re unlikely to break through in another three months; and overall this means they’ll almost certainly never reach their ultimate objective (Jishr ash-Shughour).
This is an interesting article as it might in fact explain the Obama great reluctance to confront Putin either in eastern Ukraine and or now Syria…if one looks at the German FP towards Putin they often indicate that “Putin needs a face saving exit strategy” in eastern Ukraine AND suddenly this article reflects that same exact thinking in Syria.
THIS I think goes a long way in WHY the US does not call out Putin on his deliberate killing of civilians and his extensive use of cluster munitions ALSO on civilians ALL the while “claiming” he is fighting Islamic State….
BUT WAIT after the “Putin face saving” via Minsk 2 WHAT did we get…an embolden Putin who then moved into Syria in order to continue his “perceived” victory march against the “evil liberal US”…..
http://www.theatlantic.com/internati…ia-war/423309/
The Danger of Putin Losing in Syria
If Russia’s military adventure unravels, what happens next?
Dominic Tierney
Jan 8, 2016
Last September, Russia deployed dozens of jets to Syria to rescue the ailing regime of Bashar al-Assad. Vladimir Putin aimed to protect one of Moscow’s few foreign allies and gain leverage for the coming peace negotiations over the Syrian Civil War. Russian media presented the mission as a heroic attempt to save the civilized world from Islamic terrorism. In Washington, however, Putin was widely seen as wading into a quagmire. According to The Economist: “If America’s Syria-watchers agree on anything it is that the Russian campaign, which has enabled Mr Assad’s forces to make only minor gains, will fail, and thereby encourage Russia to give up on its proxy. That would be a huge boost to the UN-backed peace talks John Kerry, the secretary of state, is brokering, with the aim of replacing Mr Assad with a transitional government early next year.”
But would a loss for Putin really be good news? While it’s tempting to take satisfaction in the Russian president’s travails in Syria—what you might call Putinfreude—Syria-watchers should question their assumptions. If Putin’s military adventure unravels, the result may not be peace.
Can Putin Bomb His Way Out of Sanctions?
It’s certainly easy to imagine the Russian intervention deteriorating. In recent weeks, Assad’s forces have made some limited gains around the Syrian city of Aleppo. But the overall strategic situation for Damascus remains highly precarious. Last year, the Syrian regime suffered a string of battlefield defeats, and Assad publicly admitted to “fatigue” and “a lack of human resources [in the army].” The regime pulled back to defensible territory and was left in control of a rump coastal strip representing around one-sixth of the country. Russian jets are not enough for victory. It would likely take tens of thousands of troops to recapture and hold cities like Aleppo and Raqqa.
Russia is in a perilous position, internationally isolated and enduring economic turmoil. And now Putin has plunged into the unknown. Moscow doesn’t have experience coordinating military operations with Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah. This is Russia’s first military expedition outside of its immediate sphere of influence since the end of the Cold War. Putin has also pinned his fortunes on a highly incompetent dictator; Assad’s policies of systematic torture and barrel bombing of civilians brewed the hell broth in Syria.
And two can play at the great game of proxy warfare. Patrons of the Syrian insurrection, like Turkey and the Gulf states, may match Russian intervention by stepping up their own assistance to rebels—in the form, for example, of anti-aircraft missiles. During the 1980s, the Soviet Union’s counterinsurgency war in Afghanistan unraveled in part because the CIA provided ground-to-air Stinger missiles to the mujahideen.
To get a sense of what could await Putin, look at Iran’s experience in Syria. When Tehran first chose to aid Assad, it likely didn’t realize that Syria would become a sinkhole that would cost hundreds of Iranian military personnel and tens of billions of dollars. Or consider Iran’s Lebanese proxy Hezbollah, which marched over the border to save Assad and subsequently lost around 1,200 to 1,700 fighters in a seemingly endless morass.
Leaders often respond to defeat with disastrous decisions that only worsen their plight. They rage against the dying of the light.
In other words, Putin’s war may very well fail. But if it does, will he make concessions and abandon his ally? If the Russian president acts rationally, he should cut his losses. Putin, however, may not act rationally. When I researched my book on military disaster, The Right Way to Lose a War, I was struck by how poorly governments tend to handle battlefield reversals. From the United States in Vietnam to the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, leaders often respond to defeat with disastrous decisions that only worsen their plight. Rather than coolly looking for a way out of the predicament, they rage against the dying of the light.
Part of the problem is what psychologists call “loss aversion.” Losing hurts twice as bad as winning feels good—whether in a tennis match or a war. The idea of accepting even a small loss can seem intolerable, and people are tempted to risk greater losses for a shot at the win. The gambler who drops 20 bucks in a casino doesn’t walk away; he doubles his bets. In a similar vein, the president who loses 1,000 soldiers in Vietnam doesn’t end the war; he sends half a million Americans into the mire.
It’s hard to imagine Putin accepting defeat. He has cultivated an image as the father of the Russian people, who is restoring the country as a world power. If Assad’s regime falls, Russia could lose its only military installation outside the former U.S.S.R.—the naval base in Tartus, Syria. Therefore, if the war effort collapses, Putin may want to salvage something from the wreckage, potentially moving the conflict into a dangerous new phase. He could intensify Russian air strikes or deploy “little green men”—as the Russian soldiers serving unofficially in eastern Ukraine were called. Once Russian troops start dying in Syria, all bets are off.
To get Putin out of Syria, the United States might need to play along by avoiding boastful claims of a major Russian debacle.
Putin, moreover, has repeatedly responded to the potential loss of client regimes with military force. In 2008, the Russian military intervened in Georgia to punish pro-Western Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and protect the independence of the breakaway Georgian territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Six years later, in 2014, Putin aided Ukrainian rebels and annexed Crimea following the toppling of pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. In late 2015, with Assad’s forces reeling, Putin once again intervened to stabilize a client regime.
And Putin has already raised the prospect of further military escalation, saying that Russia is using “far from everything we are capable of” in Syria and that “We also have other things as well and will use them if necessary.”
What’s the solution? If Russia’s defeat could trigger hazardous escalation, this doesn’t mean a Russian victory is preferable. After all, if Assad somehow assumed a winning position, why would he negotiate a compromise peace that recognized the interests of all Syrian groups? Instead, the optimal opportunity for a peace deal may be a situation in which Putin believes a decisive triumph is not possible, but he can still save face by spinning the outcome as a success. In other words, he needs a story to tell the Russian people about the positive results of the mission. This narrative doesn’t need to be true, but it does need to have truthiness, or a seeming plausibility. And so, to get Putin out of Syria, the United States might need to play along by avoiding boastful claims of a major Russian debacle. In 1989, after the Berlin Wall fell, U.S. President George H.W. Bush deliberately refused to declare the development a win—to avoid complicating the life of Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev.
Putin needs a victory speech. And Washington may have to help him write it.
How is that Syrian strategy working……?
RuAf is still deliberately targeting and killing civilians…..
11 reported dead so far & 10s wounded in a #Russia|n airstrike on a market in Ma’aret al-Nouman in #Idlib, #Syria
AND US is still only supporting the SDF and not the rest of the FSA who is actually fighting Assad, Putin AND IS daily all across Syria……
What #SDF/#YPG achieved vs. #ISIS (due to Western help) is great !!
But it’s the only “rebel” group in #Syria that has 100% peace w/ #Assad.
The “D” in #SDF stands for “Democratic”.
However, this army seems to have no problem with #Assad’s Dictatorship …
VIDEO: SDF fighters battle ISIS around #Tishrin #Syria. Coalition also providing airstrike support.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4QNB5JccDw0 …
BUT WAIT……
Russian/Iranian propaganda hard at work……..today from the 100% Russian owned propaganda media outlet….Sputnik.
http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20…#ixzz3wkL0a1Pd
Rebel Militants Repelled by Syrian Army, Russian Jets in Latakia Province
Middle East
08:50 09.01.2016(updated 12:55 09.01.2016)
Quote:
Taking the Ground Back: Syrian Army Further Liberates Aleppo
With the help of Russian air strikes, the Syrian Army and the country’s National Defense Forces (NDF) won back an array of strategic areas in western Syria’s Latakia province, according to the Iranian news agency FARS.
Dozens of militants were killed and many more wounded after the Syrian troops launched an offensive on terrorists based in the mountainous regions of Latakia province, where the army took control of Tal Kherba, Al Juba and Height 1023, among other areas.
“The Syrian army and the NDF continued to advance against the terrorist groups north of Lattakia and took back Heights 292, 296 and 387. The pro-government forces also won back the Heights 465, 342 and 489 near the newly-liberated village of al-Sarraf,” FARS quoted army sources as saying.
According to the sources, the Syrian forces also captured Daghdaghan Farm, believed to be one of the main strongholds of the militant groups in Latakia.
Earlier this week, the Syrian Army and the NDF staged large-scale offensives on the militant groups in Lattakia, winning back several strategic villages and heights.
In particular, the army took full control of Rweiset Abu Ghannam, Rweiset al-Sheikh Salman, Mount al-Hara and Mount Bait Fares, where scores of rebel Islamist extremists were killed or wounded, the sources said.
Aleppo Governor Predicts Syrian Army’s Imminent Victory Against Daesh
The Russian air campaign in Syria was launched on September 30, 2015, when more than fifty Russian warplanes, including Su-24M, Su-25 and Su-34 jets, commenced precision airstrikes on Islamic State targets in Syria at the behest of Syrian President Bashar Assad.
Earlier that day, the Russian upper house of parliament unanimously supported the request of President Vladimir Putin to deploy units of the Russian Aerospace Forces abroad. Syrian Ambassador to Russia Riad Haddad, for his part, confirmed that Syrian Army strikes, supported by the Russian Aerospace Forces, were being carried out against armed terrorist organizations, rather than political opposition factions or civilians.
WOW–did I understand this sentience correctly—the 11 Syrian civilians killed today in the RuAF air strike on a market place and the tens wounded WHERE NOT civilians……?
HELL ON EARTH AFTERMATH #RUSSIA AIRSTRIKES ON #MAARAT_AL_NOUMAN, 40+ MARTYRS SO FAR
#IDLIB #SYRIA JAN 9 pic.twitter.com/Lk3Q00weH5
RuAF air strike was deliberate and directed against a normal Saturday morning marketplace……
At least 5 massacres carried out by Russian Warplanes today in #Syria. Dozens of civilians brutally massacred.
JUST IN: Video of Iranian rocket launch near US ships
http://militari.ly/1RfdTqr
#FOIA by @KenC41 @military_scoop
pic.twitter.com/zpaUe3i49E
Remember the US/Obama/DoS response was…not a provocation……judge for yourself…..
Oh come on…really…..and this President understands Iranian UW and “revolutionary Islam” as preached by Khomeini….????
Max Boot
@MaxBoot CIA ordered not to support 2009 Green Movement in Iran because Obama wanted to woo Khameini.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/nuclear-deal-fuels-irans-hard-liners-1452294637 …
Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum
looks like the Iran deal wasn’t the launch of a persian peristroika after all
http://www.businessinsider.de/how-sa…16-1?r=US&IR=T
How Saudi Arabia ‘pulled a proxy out from under Iran’s wing’
Armin Rosen
The latest round of tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia is unsettling what little is left of the Middle East’s regional order.
Saudi Arabia’s execution of the country’s most prominent Shi’ite cleric on January 2nd triggered the apparently state-sanctioned burning of Saudi diplomatic facilities in Tehran and Mershad, a breach of international order that in turn resulted in Saudi Arabia cutting ties with their Persian Gulf neighbor.
Luckily, in the past Saudi Arabia and Iran have demonstrated at least a limited ability to keep their animosity in check.
The countries didn’t go to war when an Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the US at an upscale Washington, DC restaurant was revealed in 2011. It’s unclear what if any long-term impact the latest series of incidents will have.
But they’re likely to have one lasting effect, a political development that could tangibly shift hte terms of the Middle East’s sectarian divide.
On January 4th, Sudan announced that it was also severing diplomatic ties with Iran. This move denied Iran of its sole Sunni Arab ally, undercutting the Tehran regime’s argument that Iran’s Islamic revolution is capable of transcending sectarianism and uniting the world’s Muslims.
More practically, the freeze in relations also closes off the Red Sea port of Port Sudan to Iranian warships and weapons shipments, takes away a staging area for Iran’s regional arms pipeline, ends a partnership with a fellow revolutionary Islamist regime, and flummoxes whatever remained of Iran’s efforts to win over potential supporters in the Sunni world.
The relationship between Iran and Sudan stems from the National Islamic Front’s elevating to power after the 1989 military coup in Khartoum, an event that marked the first instance of a revolutionary Islamist movement taking power in an Arab country.
Over the next decade, Sudan’s government sheltered Osama bin Laden, attempted to assassinate the anti-Muslim Brotherhood Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak, and tried to impose Islamic law throughout what was then the territorial ly largest country in the African continent.
Even if these measures turned Sudan into an internationally sanctioned rogue state, they created an opportunity for a partnership with a fellow revolutionary regime in Tehran, which had been the world’s only revolutionary Islamist government between 1979 and 1989.
The relationship paid off: Iran provided Sudan with weaponry and expertise that allowed the country to set up a fairly extensive domestic arms industry, giving it the capability of building its own automatic weapons, rocket launchers, and even tanks.
The Sudanese regime lost many of it its Islamist trappings. The Islamic Movement changed its name to the National Congress Party (NCP) in the late 1990s and began evolving into a somewhat more conventional dictatorship in hopes of improving the country’s economy and relations with the west.
But Sudan maintained close ties with Iran. International isolation over the government’s conduct in wars in Darfur and South Sudan gave Sudan the added incentive to deepen ties with a fellow sanctioned regime. Iran and Sudan completed a military cooperation agreement in 2008, while the Sudanese military has deployed Iranian-built drones in both Darfur and the south of the country. The two governments were allies through 2014.
That began to change as the NCP began to faced steep financial crisis — and as Saudi Arabia began mobilizing the Sunni Arab states against Tehran.
The NCP, which is still under international sanctions related to the Sudanese government’s human rights abuses in Darfur, had faced a prolonged economic drought after the southern third of the country became the independent state of South Sudan in 2011. Khartoum and South Sudan failed to reach a durable compromise over the post-independence split of South Sudanese oil revenues (the oil’s export is dependent on an oil transit infrastructure in the north of Sudan). Oil from the south had previously constituted nearly the entirety of Sudanese government revenue.
At the same time, the Middle East ignited. The escalating conflict in Syria sharpened the region’s sectarian divisions, and events like the Yemeni civil war and the thaw in Iran-US relations heightened the competition between Riyadh and Tehran.
These tensions raised made a potentially swing state like Sudan even more important.
As Alberto Fernandez, current Vice President at the Middle East Media Research Institute and the Charge d’Affaires at the US embassy in Khartoum from 2007 to 2009 explained to Business Insider, amid both domestic and regional turmoil the increasingly pragmatic regime in Khartoum began to realize that its survival depended more on Saudi largess than on its relationship with Iran.
“These guys have been in power now for 26 years,” Fernandez says of the NCP. “They’re no longer the revolutionaries that they were. They’re now a regime that wants to hold onto power. And in that sense they were fruit ripe for the plucking by the Saudis.”
The thaw culminated in Sudan’s March 2015 decision to join the Saudi-led anti-Houthi rebel coalition in Yemen, which is fighting to restore Yemen’s internationally recognized government after an Iranian-supported Shi’ite militant movement deposed it in early 2015.
By that point, the NCP had determined that the Saudis had the unrivaled resources and willingness to secure the regime’s long-term survival. “The Saudis can still outbid the Iranians,” says Fernandez. “The Iranians have technical expertise and other things they can offer, but they’re not swimming in cold hard cash the way the Saudis are.”
The move has strategic implications for Iran. Sudan’s partnership was more than just a symbolic victory for Iran, 0r a sign that the the Islamic Republic’s state ideology was capable of resonating with Sunni Arab Islamists too. It also gave Iran a strategic way-point for weapons trafficking into both the Gaza Strip and Central and East Africa.
Sudan was a frequent staging area for Iranian weapons shipments heading north, to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza. Sudan gave the Iranian arms industry, and the Iranian regime, access to regions of strategic and possibly commercial concern. Suspected Israeli attacks targeted Hamas weapons shipments or facilities in Sudan in 2009, 2011, and 2014. And as a 2012 study by Conflict Armaments Research detailed, Iranian munitions have been found throughout Africa, in places spanning from South Sudan to Cote D’Ivoire.
Iran also helped seed a Sudanese domestic weapons industry purported to be the third-largest in Africa, behind only Egypt and South Africa. According to a 2014 Small Arms Survey report, Iran owns a 35% stake in the Yarmouk industrial facility in Khartoum, which is believed to produce artillery, rocket launchers, and military-grade firearms.
Iran’s Yamrouk investment hasn’t been cost-free for the Sudanese regime: in October of 2012, the Israeli air force attacked the site, likely in order to destroy Iranian-supplied long-range rockets bound for Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Yarmouk was also cited in a 2006 US diplomatic cable published by WikiLeaks for its alleged connection to activities “that have the potential to contribute materially to WMD, missile, or certain other weapons programs in Iran or Syria.”
As the Small Arms Survey recounts, Sudanese weapons factories produce a range of armaments, including light weaponry and small rocket launchers of Iranian design. Sudan has flown military drones of Iranian origin, and Patrick Megahan, a research associate for military affairs at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, noted in an email to Business Insider that Sudan’s state weapons enterprises had exhibited “a copy of an Iranian remote weapons station” at an international defense exhibition in Abu Dhabi in early 2015.
Emile Lebrun, the editor of the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan, speculates that Iranian assistance “was already very limited before the Yemen campaign was underway.”
But it’s still “unclear,” he wrote to Business Insider in an email, “whether the Iranian technicians working in the Sudanese arms factories (some hundreds of workers, according to reports) can be replaced with local specialists.”
Sudan’s value as a strategic asset to Iran, and Iran’s role in helping Sudan establish a domestic arms production capability, suggest that the relationship between the two countries may continue in some more muted, sub-official form. There might be some enduring (if informal) cooperation between officials from the two countries regarding weapons trafficking or continued Iranian involvement in the arms sector.
“My sense is that we’re going to see Sudan inch away from Iran but Iran will maintain lingering assets in the country whether Sudan likes it or not,” says Jonathan Schanzer, vice president of research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
But on the geopolitical level, Saudi Arabia was able to ply away Iran’s only Sunni Arab ally — a country that enjoyed longstanding military and strategic ties with Tehran.
“It looks like the Saudis have outmaneuvered the Iranians,” Schanzer told Business Insider. “They pulled a proxy out from under Iran’s wing.”
With these raving successes in the Obama Syria strategy NOT sure why he needs more messaging….he is doing great with his non actions and his silence already….
CORE Obama Syria strategy problem is with his junior partner Putin who for the life of the Russian AF cannot seem to kill IS fighters where there are an estimated 25-60K of them alone in Syrian BUT all the while the Obama junior partner seems intent on just killing civilians much like he did in Chechnya…….
EVEN MORE civilians were killed in this Russian air strike yesterday….
SCD continues Rescue Op. since y’day,#Russia airstrikes on #Maarat_al_NOuman,86 killed so far
#Idlib #Syria JAN 10
Russian AF is still carrying on with their Syrian civilian starvation campaign in order to create more refugees for Europe and to ethnically cleanse major Sunni areas…and to create a non Sunni area for Assad to expand his control over as a rump state
BREAKING
#Russia Cruise Missiles targeted the Humanitarian Relief Warehouse #IHH @ihhinsaniyardim in #Turkmen_Mount
#Latakia #Syria JAN 10
EVEN MORE RuAF air strikes on civilians….
SCD HEROES rescue operation aftermath #Russia airstrikes on #Kafr_Hamra
#Aleppo cs #Syria JAN 10
RUSSIA WARPLANES CARRIED OUT AIRSTRIKES TARGETING #KAFR_HAMRA
#ALEPPO CS #SYRIA JAN 10
More #RUssia airstrikes on #SHeikh_Meskin, more than 25 airstrikes since morning
#Daraa #Syria JAN10
US_COALITION CARRIED OUT AIRSTRIKES TARGETING #AL_HAMIDIYAH NEIGHBORHOOD
#DEIR_EZZOR #SYRIA JAN 10
RUSSIA AIRSTRIKES ON #AL_RASTAN
#HOMS #SYRIA JAN 10
SAA terrorists helicopters dropped the 18th Barrel Bomb on #Darayya
#Damascus #Syria JAN 10
CHILDREN LOOKING UP WATCHING THE NEXT #ASSad BARREL BOMB TO FALL ON #DARAYYA
#DAMASCUS #SYRIA JAN 10
MARTYRS AS #ASSad BARREL BOMBS FALL ON #DARAYYA
#DAMASCUS #SYRIA JAN 10
ASSAD is now having his SAA which is neither Syrian no Arabic BUT Shia mercenaries…..shell IDPs……
SAA terrorists shelling Grad Rockets on the Displace civilians at #al_Yamadaya
Russia warplanes carried out airstrikes on #Al_Lataminah
#Hama cs #Syria JAN 10
#Latakia cs #Syria JAN 10
SMOKE DUE #RUSSIA AIRSTRIKES ON #DOUMA MOMENTS AGO, MORE THAN 9 AIRSTRIKES SO FAR
#DAMASCUS CS #SYRIA JAN 10
RUSSIA WARPLANES CARRIED OUT AIRSTRIKES ON #TALBISEH CAUSING A MASSACRE
#HOMS #SYRIA JAN 10
SCD @SyriaCivilDef Rush to the ambulance w/little girl victim of #Russia airstrikes on #Talbiseh
#Homs #SYria JAN10
RUssia warplanes carried out airstrikes targeting #Moadamiyah_Al_Sham
#Damascus #Syria JAN 10
SAA mercenaries terrorists shelling Mortars on #Erbeen
#Damascus cs #Syria JAN 10
Russia warplanes carried out airstrikes on #Daraa_al_Balad neighborhood
#Daraa cs #Syria JAN 10
Russia warplanes carried out airstrikes targeting #Busrah_Al_Sham village
#Daraa cs #Syria JAN 10
Russia warplanes carried out airstrikes targeting #al_Bab town
FSA TOW hit on tank…..
FSA destroyed #SAA Tank killing a number of it’s mercenaries while hidden behind of it at #Darayya
#Syria JAN10
#Aleppo cs #Syria JAN 10
SAA helicopters dropped barrel bombs on #Busr_al_Harer
#Daraa cs #Syria JAN 10
SAA helicopters dropped barrel bombs on Taybah village
#Daraa cs #Syria JAN 10
Russia warplanes carried out airstrikes targeting #Deir_Foul village
#Homs cs #Syria JAN 10
Russia warplanes carried out airstrikes targeting #Qonitrah village
#Homs cs #Syria JAN 10
Russia warplanes carried out airstrikes targeting #Ebtaa village
#Daraa cs #Syria JAN 10
Russia warplanes carried out airstrikes on #Nawah town
#Daraa cs #Syria JAN 10
Rebels inside #Qarah village, after heavy clash w/ #isis terrorists.
#Aleppo cs #Syria JAN10
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Szc74qo3ZxE …
STARVATION as a weapon by Assad and Putin—and by not saying anything Obama becomes complicit a well in this starvation campaign…by his non actions…..no comments….
Essa stills waiting for food..
#Madaya.. #Damascus cs #Syria JAN 10
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFx2EweLuK4 …
JaN kidnaps activists…..
Assad couldn’t kill them & ISIS couldn’t silence them. So Jolani’s thugs kidnapped @HadiAlabdallah & @RaedFares4
MORE examples of that raving success of the Obama Syrian strategy that we in the US do not hear from our own MSM…..
Notice that there is not a single (Sunni) civilian left in the former 8.000 inhabitants towns.
pic.twitter.com/Ti3sfPehZc
So maybe messaging is not such a great idea…the wrong ones might be doing the messaging ie social media.
Those Syrian strategy successes just keep on keeping on………after this particular success MAYBE the Obama WH does in fact truly need some messaging.
Breaking
#Hezbollah al-Nujaba leader Sheikh Akram Al-Kaabi visits invasion forces in Al-Eis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2OcGNvrK20 …
pic.twitter.com/94RDK1LW57
More information on him:
http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.de/201…kaabi-and.html …
and his de facto Iranian-led militia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haraka…llah_al-Nujaba …
AND who is exactly the God Father to Hezbollah……AND who wants to maintain a land corridor through Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon??
BUT WAIT that Iranian Deal was to ensure the “moderates take over” right???
The Syrian strategy successes just keep on rolling in….one phone call and one transport flight away from a nuclear device since one out of 120 will not be badly missed…….??
YET Obama and team worries about Iran….??
Sunni Arab States have now formally begun to structure themselves as the de facto Sunni Block against Iran –seems Obama and company overlooked that critical calculation in their Iran Deal…….KSA on one side of Iran and Pakistan on the other side…interesting…..
https://www.yahoo.com/news/pakistan-…144318541.html
Pakistan says it will respond to any threat to Saudi Arabia
ISLAMABAD (AP) — Any threat to Saudi Arabia’s territorial integrity will evoke a strong response from Islamabad, Pakistani army chief Gen. Raheel Sharif said Sunday.
Sharif made the remarks in a statement after Saudi Deputy Crown Prince and Defense Minister Mohammed bin Salman met with him in the garrison city of Rawalpindi, adjacent to the capital.
Salman earlier arrived in Islamabad, making him the second top Saudi official to visit Pakistan in a week amid growing tension with Iran over Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr’s recent execution.
Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir visited Pakistan a couple of days ago.
The visits came after Saudi Arabia and several of its allies announced the severing or downgrading of diplomatic relations with Shiite powerhouse Iran. Protesters in Tehran stormed the Saudi embassy and a Saudi consulate elsewhere in the country after Saudi Arabia executed al-Nimr, a prominent Shiite cleric and opposition leader earlier this month.
Pakistan, a predominantly Sunni state, also has a large Shiite population. Pakistan has had a history of sectarian violence where Sunni and Shiite militants have reportedly been funded and supported by Gulf states for their proxy wars.
The deputy crown prince later called on Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
The people of Pakistan would always stand with the people of Saudi Arabia, said Sharif in a statement after the meeting. Pakistan has previously agreed to become part of a Saudi-led counter-terrorism alliance. Sharif welcomed the initiative and informed the prince about Pakistan’s support for efforts to oppose terrorism and extremism. It was agreed that the two countries would cooperate in developing an effective counter narrative to defeat the extremist mindset, said the statement. It said Pakistan also expressed its readiness to offer its offices to brotherly Muslim countries for resolution of their differences through peaceful dialogue and reconciliation.
Pakistan hold its defense ties with Saudi Arabia in highest esteem, said Sharif, the army chief. He said Pakistan attached great importance to the security of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.
When it comes to Syria and a Syrian strategy highly suggest the Obama WH replace the entire 700 person NSC with this author….the last three paragraphs especially the last paragraph concern facts that somehow do not get mentioned by the Obama WH and or the US MSM…wonder why that is????
http://www.thenational.ae/opinion/co…ssads-war#full
Iran won’t surrender militias that conduct Assad’s war
Hassan Hassan
January 10, 2016 Updated: January 10, 2016 05:27 PM
Quote:
Not long before the Riyadh-Tehran diplomatic row that followed the execution of Saudi Shia cleric Nimr Al Nimr, a showdown between the two countries unfolded in New York. While it is difficult to draw a direct correlation between the two events, the incident can help us understand the depth of the continuing crisis.
On December 18, heated debate ensued between representatives of the two countries at a meeting in New York over the listing of armed groups operating in Syria for possible determination as terrorist organisations. The list, which Jordan was asked to develop, would name extremist groups that must be defeated as part of the UN-sponsored political process for Syria.
A month earlier in Vienna, Saudi Arabia had insisted on including in the list foreign Shia militias fighting on the side of president Bashar Al Assad. Riyadh argued that all foreign fighters must leave Syria, regardless of which side they supported. In New York, Iran, joined by Russia, strongly objected to the demand and the standoff caused a deeper rift between the two countries.
For now, the designation of terror groups in Syria has been referred to a committee comprising several European and regional countries. They first determined indicators and criteria of what constitutes a terrorist organisation, then named armed groups currently fighting in Syria. There is a preliminary list of more than 160 Sunni and Shia organisations.
Iran categorically rejects including any Shia groups in the list. For Tehran, the fate of the Assad regime it supports is critically tied to the presence of those Shia militias. It is a fact that adds to the many issues that compound the conflict in Syria – issues that the international community would seemingly rather sweep under the carpet instead of deal with head on.
The Syrian regime controls about 30 per cent of the country, though it probably controls over 50 per cent of the population. According to the defence think tank IHS Jane’s, the regime lost 16 per cent of its territory over the past year. These figures are particularly damning if one considers that foreign Shia militias were on the front line of key battles against the rebels – in the Qalamoun region, Aleppo and central and western Syria – over this period.
The growing role of these militias last year came as the Syrian army showed signs of internal weakening, something that Mr Al Assad has admitted. During his most recent speech, almost exactly a month before the Russian intervention in September, the president said that the army lacked “manpower”. Also last year, paramilitary fighters with the National Defence Forces (NDF) began to focus on their local areas rather than deploy in the front lines elsewhere – a task that foreign fighters took on.
Youssef Sadaki, a Syrian researcher who closely focuses on Shia militias, says those foreign fighters acted as the main strikers in battles outside the regime’s heartlands, while the NDF fighters defended their areas or secured and held newly-captured areas.
According to Mr Sadaki, foreign militias lead the regime’s battles in southern Aleppo, and the front lines between Idlib, Aleppo, Latakia, Homs and Hama. Hizbollah has spearheaded key battles in southern Syria near the Lebanese borders, while other militias guard the front lines in Damascus and fought in Deraa.
Phillip Smyth, a close observer of Shia militancy, says that most of the regime’s offensives over the past two years were led by foreign forces, including in areas where the regime’s elite units operate, such as in Damascus.
“When we look at Aleppo, the entire offensive there was spearheaded and planned by the Iranians, it was their Shia militia proxy forces which showcased the entire campaign,” said Mr Smyth, from the University of Maryland. “It’s quite clear that they are a – if not the main – fighting force in many areas.”
Last month on these pages, I highlighted that while Iran and Russia might in theory be willing to accept the removal of Mr Al Assad, there are practical reasons why they would not do that, because consequences are unpredictable and the result is not guaranteed.
For the rebels, no peace is possible while Mr Al Assad is in power, so his future complicates the peace talks. So does the presence of Shia militias in Syria.
Reliance on these foreign forces means that their departure will have to follow the consolidation of the government’s military control over the country. They operate in critical areas and the regime’s army or NDF do not appear to be prepared to take their place.
The presence of Shia militias is important for the regime and for its backer in Tehran. Many of these militias are also key Iranian proxies in Iraq, with recent reports suggesting that Iran has diverted them to Syria to assist in the wake of the Russian intervention in Syria. So the issue has also a regional dimension that cannot be ignored.
Iran finds itself in a situation where it seeks to save the regime in Syria through the help of religious zealots, while pushing for the designation as terrorists of Sunni extremists fighting on the side of the opposition.
In western capitals, strangely, that seems to be a reasonable position. For the opposition and regional backers such as Saudi Arabia, that is double dealing that further complicates the already-complex conflict in Syria.
Why does Obama worry about “messaging” in his Syrian strategy WHEN he absolutely does nothing that would indicate that he is a leader……
ONLY two comments from his DoS and Kerry about the deliberate Putin air strikes against only civilians and not a single IS fighter….AND absolutely not a single comment on the deliberate use of starvation as a tactical weapon which is a clear violation of international humanitarian law.
The US dropped food supplies to Kurds BUT the “messaging” to the average Syrian civilian is “you are not worth the effort”………..
Starving Syrians in Madaya are denied aid amid political jockeying. http://nyti.ms/1Zfl0P7
Footage
Hell on earth in #Douma again …
Giant “#Russian” bombs hit the city.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5-tzjKoOyk …
pic.twitter.com/UazGqC79YB
No words to describe this …
#Douma today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAEPpJ8j2cE …
pic.twitter.com/HJlyV6D5R3
Death toll in Russian raids on Syria’s Idlib nears 100
http://dld.bz/egXtu
pic.twitter.com/y9Cj89GjnC
BTW–an accidental Twitter comment from a proAssad supporter indicated the “average accuracy” of the Russian dumb bomb to be between 1-2km from actual target point.
4 KM is not a problem as regime pilots are actually aiming with iPads at the villages/cities https://twitter.com/mario_greenly/status/686424056589979648 …
MORE Obama Syrian strategy successes that he and Kerry somehow do not want told and yet they “worry about messaging”……….
Taken from the Syrian 2016 thread comments…..
Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
…BTW–an accidental Twitter comment from a proAssad supporter indicated the “average accuracy” of the Russian dumb bomb to be between 1-2km from actual target point.
4 KM is not a problem as regime pilots are actually aiming with iPads at the villages/cities https://twitter.com/mario_greenly/st…24056589979648 …
This is something I’m ‘telling’ whoever is ready to ‘listen’ since nearly three months – and for which I’m getting attacked in all imaginable ways in return, too: fact is not only that the VKS is almost exclusively deploying ‘dumb’ bombs, but foremost that its aircraft lack the precision, and are flying much too high but to hit anything at all (especially in a country that is as windy as Syria is).
We all – and I mean: all serious observers of this and similar ongoing wars – are used to nearly 20 years of continuous warfare by Western militaries. Western warfare envisages tight integration between intel and combat operations with the aim of achieving greatest possible accuracy. It’s not working 100%; not even 80%; so much is clear and we need not making ourselves any illusions. But, it’s still really ‘amazingly precise on average’, especially when compared to earlier times (indeed, one can see significant improvement already in comparison to Bosnia of 1995, or Serbia/Kosovo of 1999).
Because of this we all expect a similar performance from Russians too. Actually, Russians are neither capable nor interested in delivering a comparable performance. From Moscow’s POV, it’s PRBS which is all that matters, and not some amazing precision or else. Why ‘waste billions of bucks’ when all that matters is number of sorties flown and number of bombs dropped one can claim in the public?
In turn, these numbers enable Keystone Cops in Moscow to claim ‘hundreds of terrorists killed’, every single day. The MSM is insta-buying this, mass of the public too, and nobody cares afterwards, no matter how much both of them – Keystone Cops and the MSM – have been proved as wrong.
While actually, ‘even’ Su-34s and Su-30SMs are really spraying and praying. This is more than logical, then one simply can’t hit anything at all if dropping dumb bombs from 2,000m + altitude in a country as windy as Syria is.
As if eager to confirm this, Elijah J Mangier, one of biggest regime-fans online, indicated that the ‘average accuracy’ of Russian dumb bombs is about 1,000-2,000 metres from the actual target point; that of Assadist barrel-bomb attacks out to 4,000 metres. Curiously, he deleted that Tweet ever since, but this was saved by some others, for example here.
Final irony: wherever I tried to explain that 90% of Russian sorties are targeting civilians in insurgent-held territories and about 5% are targeting the FSyA on several other ‘military’ forums, I’ve got banned within seconds – irrespectivelly of my assessment being based on Russian and allied releases, and well-supported. Now the AJE report here is citing the SNC reports that say,
Quote:
…”Nearly 94 percent of the 12,000 sorties the Russian air force has so far flown in Syria targeted civilians and the Free Syrian Army.”
…
…which means: their statistics is confirming mine…
Bottom line: it’s not as if ‘Moscow couldn’t care less when bombing civilians’. It’s a part of their strategy.
However, actual fact is that they are missing even these and – to make things ‘even better’ – at least something like 50% of their bombs are failing to detonate.
Therefore, it’s as absurd as true: Syrians can consider themselves happy Russian aiming is as piss-poor, otherwise there would be dozens of thousands of casualties already…
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MORE Obama Syrian successes…….taken from Syrian 2016 thread comments…
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
CrowBat—anything to this comment…??
If Turkey is helping Azaz/Mare rebels to break through against IS, we could end up with rebels, YPG/SDF and regime all converging at Al Bab
It’s certainly so that there is a sort of ‘race’ for al-Bab and Manbij going on:
– Turkey-supported FSyA insurgents are advancing along the border in the north;
– ‘2nd Division’ of the regime (that is: ‘Tiger Force’ and ‘Katibat Ba’ath’ of the Ba’ath Party Militia/Phalanga) is advancing from Kweres AB in the south;
– SDF’s US-supported/vetted FSyA elements are advancing from Teshreen Dam towards Manbij from south-east.
However, this morning the Hezbollah, IRGC, SSNP and NDF have launched an all-out attack on Salma in NE Lattakia, while the IRGC and 4th Division have launched an all-out attack west of Aleppo (city). Both of these are likely to draw lots of insurgent attention away from northern Aleppo.
So, I would say that this might become something like a ‘crucial moment’ in this war: either insurgents still have reserves – and supplies – they can re-deploy to reinforce frontlines in NE Lattakia and western Aleppo, and do so while continuing advance in northern Aleppo, or they are not only going to lose the race to al-Bab, but also give the regime a major PR coup.
Considering reports from southern Syria, where 24 FSyA groups are on the best way to beat the IRGC+PLA assault on Sheikh Mishkin despite another US ban on delivery of ammo and supplies from Jordan… sigh… well, guess it’s not much better in regards of what they’re getting from Turkey meanwhile and thus it’s hard to place any bets on them any more.
Once again: ‘congratulations Oblabla’…
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EVEN MORE Syrian strategy successes by the Obama Kerry team……taken from the Syrian 2016 thread comments…
…and if anybody is curious to read the following (and feel free to call it ‘another rant’), here a reason more to think (and very hard at it!) about what are Russians actually doing in Syria…
Elijah J Mangier, one of two major English-language mouthpieces of Assadist regime that is online, attempted to explain why is Assad (and Putler too) so insistent on bombing civilians and FSyA – instead of fighting the Daesh (which is what all the West not only expects, but also thinks they are doing): For Assad defeating al-Qaeda and its allies, rather than ISIS, is a top priority: ISIS is a “marionette”
The piece is actually typical PRBS from Assadists. However, one can’t simply discard it as such and ignore it. Instead, some careful ‘reading between the lines’ reveals plenty of details. Just concentrate on crucial statements:
Quote:
…Nonetheless, the Syrian Army’ command, and now its allies, has avoided clashing with ISIS in many occasions, when unnecessary, on several fronts. In few words, ISIS is said to be “much easier and less urgent to defeat than al-Qaeda in Syria”.
Means: yes stupids, we’re NOT fighting Daesh.
Quote:
…
The answer to such a strategy comes from one of the highest decision maker of the joint operations room in Damascus that includes Russia, Syria, Iran and Hezbollah Lebanon (3+1 which is different from the one in Baghdad, called 4+1 as it includes Iraq).
…
Moreover, ISIS does not exist in areas considered vital and rich like Idlib, Homs and the suburbs where the population is against the regime and supports the rebels.
…
From our side, we want to establish a demarcation line with ISIS and will refrain from carrying out large military operations against the group to spare our forces (the military engagement) for other more strategic fronts.
…
There follows plenty of outright idiotic babbling, like ‘ISIS has no regional or international political horizont… no political cover up or umbrella… is no longer directly financed by any country or organization…’, like ‘al-Qaida in Syria’ being in control of Ahrar ash-Sham, ‘all the Jihadists’ etc., being used by USA and allies etc. Of course, FSyA is not mentioned with a single word – as if nearly 100,000 of its combatants neither exist nor matter.
What is this all important, you might wonder?
Well, pay attention:
– Not only is this an outright – and then ‘official’ & ‘public’ – admission that Keystone Cops in Moscow are lying all the time about ‘bombing Daesh’ (because Elijah is, right next to al-Masdar, something like ‘spokesperson’ of that ‘3+1’ HQ in Damascus). It’s an admission that, ‘the Daesh did not manage to integrate itself among the population in Syria’ – which, dear quasi-anti-Imperialists, Neo-Nazis etc. in the West, means that it is idiotic to say ‘Syrians are all terrorists’.
– It also means that Assaidsts and Russians know they are NOT bombing Daesh, and are intentionally bombing insurgent-held area because insurgents ARE integrated among the population.
– Less important, but still a matter of fact, it means that Assadists and Russians are now openly lying about attacking ‘al-Qaida in Syria’: the JAN was barely hit so far. What they are attacking are primarily civilians in areas controlled by the FSyA, IF and Ahrar.
Another important fact: the source in question further babbles (citate), “Officially, Russia has declared al-Qaeda, Ahrar al-sham and all the salafist jihadists as terrorists, rejecting any presence of these groups at the negotiating table. This is exactly what Mr Assad declared throughout the years of war.”
This is another lie, then Assad refused to talk with anybody from the FSyA, first and foremost. He’s not going to change this now, as can be seen from Putler’s insistence on declaring the FSyA, IF, and AAS for ‘terrorists’.
Finally, what levels of absurdity such standpoints represent can at best be read in closing statements of that piece:
Quote:
…ISIS is exhausting Iran’s finance that is injected to support Syria with oil and cash to pay salaries and keep the various institutions standing and functioning. For the second time since the Iranian revolution in 1979, Iran is sending troops abroad to fight in thousands and not only a limited number of tens or hundreds of advisors.
So, if it is ISIS that is ‘exhausting’ Iran…which is the party that is paying practically everything that’s left of the Assadist regime: then why to hell don’t they fight the ISIS, but explain that it’s ‘no priority’?!?
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So after seeing the reality on the ground in Syria, and the reality of the total lack of Obama/Kerry engagement other than tons of words designed in fact to deflect and distract for his remaining 13 months…..
BTW…distract and deflect are two of the Russian 6Ds of propaganda…
CAN any SWJ commenter and or casual reader ACTUALLY state in one simple constructed sentence JUST what is the Obama Syrian strategy….OR after his total failure in eastern Ukraine and now Syria WHAT should his messaging be.
IF I were any member of DoD and this includes the SecDef….I would be extremely wary of making any public statement that has the words Syria and strategy in the same statement …as it will come back under the next President to haunt them.
BTW— there is mounting evidence, that the US ie Obama is holding back supplies, munitions and TOWs from the FSA the only real fighting force inside Syria that is actually fighting Assad, Putin and IS.
BUT at the same time the Obama and Kerry crew are not saying a single word about the 30 Iraqi Shia militias armed by the US that are fighting inside Syria now Hezbollah….NOR anything on the deliberate Russian killing of civilians and the Assad, Hezbollah and Putin use of starvation as a battlefield tactical weapon……
WHY is that??
Ever really wonder why it is not being called out by US MSM???
AND this is now another in the unceasing line of Obama successes in Syrian…BUT WAIT the DoS did bring up only twice the excessive killing of civilians by the Russian and Assad AF directly with Putin…AND the shinning success was what again….ZERO….
Toll of barrel bombs dropped by the Syrian Regime air-force in 2015
According to @snhr , @KreaseChan @TheSyriaCmpgn
pic.twitter.com/7YTVBs2Y9P
So what should the new Syrian strategy messaging for DoD be for this particular event that I think is not covered in the Obama play book….
You just wake up w/ the idea that you are just going to have a “normal day” at School..but.
#Anjarah #Syria JAN11
pic.twitter.com/fM47Ju3Wo8
Russia’s warplanes target schools area in the town of #Anjarah in rural #Aleppo #Syria leaving 35 dead
A Russian airstrike has hit a school in Syria
http://ind.pn/1TP6g8c
pic.twitter.com/X6WJBQ3ktc
One of the schools #Putin thugs targeted and destroyed in #Aleppo countryside.
https://youtu.be/AXFue5ruD1M
pic.twitter.com/lSkhCLqCtu
Putin pilots continue targeting schools and civil institutes across #Aleppo countryside – @5595Sad
pic.twitter.com/OXzPUuluoA
WHY is it apparently so hard for a Harvard grad to “call out” something as bad as a Russian air strike hitting a school and killing and wounding children BUT at the same time complains about armed attacks on US schools…..
Obama has his messaging moment BUT the killing fields of Syria just keep on killing……….
200+ #Russia airstrikes since morning in #Aleppo cs,
60+ #SAA barrel bombs since morning in #Darayya,
#Syria JAN 11
17children,1 teacher killed by #Russia in #Anjarah
#Syria JAN11
Educational Complex
https://goo.gl/nuw9i4
BREAKING
@SyriaCivilDef ENTIRE FAMILY UNDER RUBBLE AFTERMATH #RUSSIA AIRSTRIKES ON #ANJARAH
#ALEPPO CS #SYRIA JAN11
Little girl wounded on her head w/ Shrapnel from #SAA Mortars shelling on #Saqba @SyriaCivilDef
#Syria JAN11
SAA terrorists shelling mortars on #Saqba
#Damascus cs #Syria JAN 11
Unexploded “rusted” #SAA missile fell on #Harasta
E #Ghouta #Damascus cs #Syria JAN 11
SAA Helicopters dropping barrel bombs on #Teir_Maela
#Homs #Syria JAN 11
(Look the “ring” that form b4 explosion)
FSA @forsanalhaq1 (North Div) try to target #Russia warplanes in the sky of #Maarat_al_Nouman
#Idlib #Syria JAN 11
Moment #Russia warplanes carried out airstrikes on #Sheikh_Meskin
#Daraa #Syria JAN 11
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDtw-Rm1XAU …
SCD HERO Mohammed Omar, lost his life, victim of #Russia airstrikes on #Maarat_Alortiq
#Aleppo cs #Syria JAN 11
And the #Russia CLUSTER BOMBS don’t stop..
Our HEROES #SCD collecting Cluster Bombs in Kafr_Zeta
#Hama #Syria JAN 11
Not sure what messaging could be used for this………taken from Syria 2016 thread….
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
Russia’s warplanes target schools area in the town of #Anjarah in rural #Aleppo #Syria leaving 35 dead
Spoke to another source in Turkey who told me the jet that bombed the #Anjarah schools today came straight from the #RuAF base in Latakia.
Don’t ask me how they know but I guess you can imagine.
#Anjarah precision bomb came through the roof,floor wall&went straight into the class room.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWnTmyHCTpE …
GRAPHIC #footage
The #AnjarahSchoolMassacre:
Children tell what happened to their schools.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4P240oTILs …
Anjarah is possibly the best location to kill as many pupils as possible with a few bombs.
All 3 schools close-by.
Speaks for its self and silence from the WH……..
100 days of Russian intervention:
12000 airstrikes
1730 Syrians killed including 135 children
29 hospitals destroyed
AND then this………
Over 100 Russian airstrikes reported on Salma vlge today coordinated with regime army attack
https://youtu.be/4Kg-roKfLZQ
Islamic State nowhere to be seen in the area AND Putin claims he is destroying IS………